畅通经济循环 推进统一大市场建设（二） 作者：杨成长、龚 芳、方思元、袁宇泽 点生产、分配、支出是国民经济循环的重要节点，是构成国内大循环的主要内容。近年来， 我国在畅通国内大循环、推进统一大市场建设上取得了一系列突出成绩，但总的来看，国民经济 循环仍面临三大堵点：一是收入向消费转化不畅；二是储蓄向投资转化不畅；三是部分领域供需 结构失衡 收入向消费的转化，不仅是国民经济循环中生产、分配与消费之间的重要传导机制，更是扩 大内需的关键所在。当前我国居民消费率和边际消费倾向都还存在较大提升空间，要通过优化收 入结构、增强保障预期等方式加快释放消费市场潜力 打通储蓄向投资转化堵点：一要着力提升实体投资收益率，吸引企业加大生产再投资；二要 加快消除企业多元投资主体之间的投资逻辑分歧，推动社会储蓄向投资转化；三要着力提升资本 市场中长期回报水平，发挥资本市场在推动储蓄向投资转化中的重要作用 当前要精准施策、系统应对，着力构建新型供需关系：一要加快公共服务业市场化改革，提 升高质量服务供给；二要以场景为媒介，打造平台和应用场景，激发新需求、培育新消费；三要 提升监管的前瞻性与适应性，建立包容审慎、柔性可调的监管机制 当前 ...

价格仍然疲软，结构性问题仍然存在。 一季度GDP平减指数-0.8%，仍在负值区间，3月份消费者物价指 数（CPI）同比-0.1%，生产者物价指数（PPI）同比-2.5%，价格仍然疲软，反映国内需求仍需提振。一季 度产能利用率74.1%，仍在季节性偏低位运行，供需缺口仍待弥合。3月规模以上发电量同比仅1.8%，显 著低于工业增速，反映地产及高耗能行业弹性仍然不足。除此之外，地产新开工面积同比-18.1%，施工面 积持续收缩，房企资金到位同比-3.9%，投资端"磨底"状态未改。 Q： 请问重阳投资， 如何解读2025年一季度经济数据 ？ A： 4月16日，国家统计局发布2025年一季度经济数据。2025年一季度实际GDP同比增长5.4%，超 市场预期，中国经济迎来开门红。 经济超预期回升，政策和出口韧性形成支撑。 一季度经济数据超市场预期，主要受工业、基建投资和消 费拉动。3月份工业增加值上升至7.7%，新能源汽车、金属切削机床和太阳能电池等新动能产量同比均超 15%，或主要受到一季度海外客户抢出口影响，这与3月出口交货值7.7%的高增速两相印证。3月广义基建 投资增速同比上升至12.6%，财政资金逐步落地，基建 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market shows signs of stabilization with a slight decrease in sales area, indicating a need for further consolidation of this trend [1][2][11] Sales Performance - In March, the national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, a reduction of 4.2 percentage points compared to January-February, but still remains in negative territory [1][2] - The sales improvement is more pronounced in high-tier cities, with 40 cities reporting a 6% year-on-year increase in new home transaction area [2][11] - As of April 11, the transaction area in these 40 cities decreased by 4% year-on-year, indicating a weakening momentum compared to March [2] Investment and Construction - The real estate development investment in March fell by 10.0% year-on-year, with the decline slightly widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to January-February [11] - There is a notable improvement in construction enthusiasm among real estate companies, with new construction area in March decreasing by 18.1%, a significant narrowing of the decline by 11.5 percentage points compared to January-February [11] - The completion area in March also saw a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%, with a reduction in the decline by 4.1 percentage points compared to January-February [11] Policy and Market Outlook - The external pressures from global trade uncertainties have led to a long-term strategy of expanding domestic demand, with expectations for increased supportive policies in the real estate sector [17] - The ongoing push for policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand is anticipated to continue, with a recommendation for high-quality commercial real estate companies [17]

3月份70个大中城市的房价数据出来了，这个每个月都有跟踪的，先上表格： | | 城市 | 环比 | 同比 上年同月 | 1-3月平均 上年同期 | 城市 | | 环比 | 同比 上年同月 | 1-3月平均 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上月=100 | | | | | 上月=100 | | | | | | | =100 | =100 | | | | =100 | =100 | | 北 | ਜ | 100.5 | 97.9 | 97.1 | 唐 | ITI | 99.4 | 88.7 | 88.6 | | 天 | 津 | 100.0 | 95.2 | 94.7 | 奏皇岛 | | 99.2 | 89.4 | 89.3 | | | 石家庄 | 99.9 | 93.1 | 92.9 | ത | न्ने | 99.2 | 89.3 | 89.2 | | 大 | 原 | 99.5 | તેરે I | 95.5 | चै | 張 | 99.6 | 90.1 | 89.7 | | | 呼和浩特 | 9 ...

值得一提的是，石基信息2月发布公告，全资子公司与瑰丽酒店集团签订选择SEP等为集团标准的重大 合同。 A股酒店板块也顺势拉升，截至4月17日收盘，华天酒店（000428.SZ）、金陵饭店（601007.SH）涨 停，君亭酒店（301073.SZ）大涨7.47%，锦江酒店（600754.SH）、首旅酒店（600258.SH）跟涨。 值得注意的是，酒店系统集成商石基信息（002153.SZ）也以涨停收盘。不过，财务数据显示，该公司 业绩尚未出现明显改善。 石基信息1月发布的2024年度业绩预告显示，预计2024年实现营业收入25亿元至37亿元，归母净利润亏 损1.4亿元至2.2亿元，上年同期亏损1.05亿元。2020年至2022年，石基信息归母净利润一路下滑，分别 亏损6758.00万元、4.78亿元、7.79亿元。 南财快讯记者以投资者身份致电石基信息询问酒店采购、业绩改善等事项，工作人员表示，公司产品是 面向酒店集团去推广，谈妥之后再进入集团的采购清单，集团下属酒店通过采购清单购买公司系统。 在扩大内需背景下，大消费成为近期盘面最强主线。 该人员表示，此策略存在一个问题，公司与酒店集团谈判时间或较长，可能需要 ...

4月17日晚间，顺丰控股发布3月经营数据。在扩大内需政策持续发力，公司不断拓展新产业、新客群和 新场景共同作用下，公司3月营收达到236.61亿元，同比增长9.63%。其中，速运业务营收178.97亿元， 同比增长10.61%；业务量12.95亿票，同比增加25.36%，单票收入为13.82元；供应链及国际业务收入 57.64亿元。 基于这样的战略规划，3月26日，顺丰快运迅速行动，宣布全面升级大件产品能力，构建多层级大件时 效产品矩阵，精准匹配不同时效需求的客户，全力推动核心城市及经济圈时效大幅提升。 特别值得关注的是，顺丰控股的速运业务在3月份表现强劲，业务量增速超过25%，超出同期国家邮政 局公布的3月20.3%快递行业业务量增速。 "大件即日"是顺丰的王牌产品之一，在此次升级中展现出强大的竞争力。一单上午10点从广东深圳的工 厂收取的零件，下午5点钟即可抵达安徽合肥客户的生产车间，不仅在时效与服务范围上实现双重跃 升，更是将满足广大客户的个性化需求置于首位，以物流效率促进生产效率。 顺丰控股营收和业务量持续增长，既有宏观层面的助力，更得力于顺丰自身在业务端的深度耕耘与创新 突破。全方位扩大国内需求的政 ...

1 、 《 房地产市场发展潜力 》摘要 2、 《 预制菜在市场上怎么就"消失"了？ 》摘要 ■ 202 5年4月15日，李强总理在北京调研时强调，要深入贯彻习近平总书记关于扩大国内需求的指示 精神，积极应对外部冲击，推动消费增长和内需扩大，其中，房地产市场作为促进内需的重要领 域，成为重点关注对象。 ■ 政府已出台多项支持措施，如保障性住房再贷款、专项债等，尤其是在收购存量商品房用于保障性 住房方面。 ■ 政府正在推动"好房子"建设，要求住宅项目安全、舒适、绿色、智能，这将进一步推动改善性住房 的需求。 ■ 北京有望进一步调整限制性政策，支持刚性和改善性住房需求，这对于房地产市场的复苏具有积极 影响，尤其是北京市场的修复可能对其他城市产生示范效应。 ■ 房地产开发和改造领域的投资者可以关注这些政策支持的机会，特别是在保障性住房和高质量住宅 的需求上。 ■ 通过教育项目、节庆活动和手作课程等方式，能够提升游客的参与感和对乡村文化的认同感，进而 提高客户的回头率。 ■ 通过建立会员大数据系统、线上商城以及社交媒体的活跃推广，企业能够精准分析客户偏好，并通 过低成本的方式扩大市场影响力。 ■ 2023年全国休闲农业 ...

"当前和今后一个时期，我国房地产市场仍有很大的发展空间，要进一步释放市场潜力，着力推动'好房 子'建设，加快构建房地产发展新模式，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。"4月15日，中共中央政治局常 委、国务院总理李强在北京调研时给出了这样的定调。 他表示，收购存量商品房用作保障性住房，是促进房地产市场止跌回稳、保障和改善民生的重要抓手。 要落实好各项相关政策，在收购主体、价格和用途方面给予城市政府更大自主权，并及时研究推出新的 支持措施。 中指研究院政策研究总监陈文静向《华夏时报》记者表示，促进住房消费是2025年扩内需的关键内容， 本次李强总理进一步强调房地产的发展潜力，提振了市场预期，也明确了促进住房消费的多项举措。未 来政策有望加快落实，预计北京优化调整房地产政策的空间也将逐渐打开，促进房地产市场进一步修 复，而北京市场修复也有望发挥示范效应，改善整体市场预期。 住房消费，作为一种内需 值得注意的是，此次调研是一次关于全方位扩大国内需求的重大活动。李强强调，沉着冷静应对外部冲 击带来的困难挑战，以更大力度促进消费、扩大内需、做强国内大循环，进一步释放我国超大规模市场 的活力潜力。 在走访纺织品、轻工产品、食品等 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market is currently facing weak terminal demand, with no clear improvement in fundamentals. Although the steel mills' profits have recovered and production has increased, the sustainability of real steel demand needs careful observation. The market is expected to be weak after a short - term shock - driven upward movement. The iron ore market has support from iron ore demand due to the potential for further increase in molten iron production and good steel mill profits. However, there is a large medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure, and it is expected to be weak after a short - term rebound. The coking coal and coke market has the potential for upward valuation repair supported by the recovery of downstream demand, and attention should be paid to the digestion of upstream inventory. The ferroalloy market may have stronger support at the bottom driven by the recovery of demand, and attention should be paid to the digestion of market inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: For example, the previous day's closing price of coke 01 contract was 1622, down 7 from the day before, with a decline of 0.4%; the previous day's closing price of iron ore 05 contract was 766, up 7 from the day before, with an increase of 0.9%. There were also changes in price ratios and spreads of different contracts, such as the coke 1 - 5 spread changing from 80 to 55 [2]. - **Spot Market and Basis**: In the coke spot market, the spot price at Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port remained at 1340; in the iron ore spot market, the price of PBF (Fe61.5%) increased from 842 to 849. The basis of different varieties also changed to varying degrees [2]. 3.2 Profit - **Profit Changes**: Coke simulation profit decreased from 63 to - 385; steel simulation profit increased from - 53 to - 49; the profit of steel mills on the futures market decreased from - 48 to - 71; the profit of coking plants on the futures market increased from 312 to 327 [3]. 3.3 Macro News - On April 15, Premier Li Qiang emphasized during a research trip in Beijing to calmly respond to difficulties and challenges brought by external shocks, promote consumption and expand domestic demand with greater efforts, and further release the vitality and potential of China's super - large - scale market [3]. 3.4 Industry Information - From April 7 - 13, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 131.99 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 18.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.6%; the total transaction area of second - hand housing was 265.87 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 24.5% [3]. - For steel, the tariff exemption has no direct impact, and the indirect export impact has not been realized. Terminal demand is weak, and the real steel demand needs careful observation. For iron ore, although the supply is expected to change, the demand is supported by the increase in molten iron production. For coking coal and coke, there is potential for upward valuation repair. For ferroalloys, the cost support has weakened, and attention should be paid to the guidance of steel procurement and the digestion of inventory [3].

Group 1: Domestic Policy Analysis - Premier Li Qiang held a meeting with economic experts and entrepreneurs, emphasizing the need to prepare for external shocks affecting China's economic stability [10][11][12] - The People's Bank of China released the "2025 Shanghai Credit Policy Guidelines" to enhance financial support for consumption [14][23] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice to support urban renewal actions for 2025, aiming to address urban infrastructure weaknesses [14][23] Group 2: Equity Market Analysis - A-shares experienced a pullback due to the global liquidity crisis triggered by Trump's "reciprocal tariffs," with the Shenzhen Composite Index and ChiNext Index dropping over 5.5% [24][25] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges held meetings with securities firms to stabilize the capital market, with significant cash dividends and buybacks announced by listed companies [25][26] - Central Huijin and other state-owned capital management companies increased their holdings in ETFs and strategic stocks to support the market [26][27] Group 3: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut increased following the impact of Trump's tariffs, leading to a more relaxed funding environment [4][25] - The central bank withdrew a total of 489.7 billion yuan in funds during the week, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [4][25] Group 4: Commodity Market Analysis - Precious metals experienced a V-shaped rebound, while base metals continued to decline, and pork futures broke upward [4][25] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued guidelines for industrial standards, which may influence commodity prices and demand [4][25] Group 5: Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The US dollar index fell below 100, closing at 99.77, a decrease of 3.06% week-on-week, indicating increased volatility in the foreign exchange market [4][25] - The onshore renminbi faced depreciation pressure, trading at 7.28 against the US dollar as of April 11 [4][25]