交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年5月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230499 投资咨询证号：Z0000990 联系方式：0575-85229759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：债市期现货弱势加剧，美国法院"叫停"特朗普关税打压避险情绪。国债期货全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.65%。银行间主要利率债收益率 纷纷上行，幅度多在1-2个bp之间。资金宽松，跨月无虞，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率微降，七天质押式回购利率则上行超2个bp。 2、资金面：5月29日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2660亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量2660亿元，中标量2660亿元。 | 期货合约 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 日增仓 | CTD券 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No relevant content provided Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Prices - The closing prices of BU main contract, BU06, BU09, BU12, and BU03 on May 29 were 3514, 3507, 3483, 3308, and 3266 respectively, with daily changes of 33, 18, 40, 42, and 39, and weekly changes of -5, -30, 8, 18, and 17 [4]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume on May 29 was 510,411, with a daily increase of 102,426 and a weekly increase of 170,744. The open interest was 419,343, with a daily increase of 12,843 and a weekly increase of 18,164 [4]. Spot Prices - The low - end prices in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, and Northeast markets on May 29 were 3480, 3520, 3280, 3640, and 3780 respectively. The daily changes were 0, 0, -100, 10, and 30, and the weekly changes were 30, 0, -100, 70, and 80 [4]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - The Shandong basis was -34, with a daily change of -33 and a weekly change of 35. The East China basis was 6, with a daily change of -33 and a weekly change of 5. The South China basis was -234, with a daily change of -133 and a weekly change of -95 [4]. - The 03 - 06 spread was -241, with a daily change of 21 and a weekly change of 47. The 06 - 09 spread was 24, with a daily change of -22 and a weekly change of -38. The 09 - 12 spread was 175, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of -10 [4]. Crack Spreads and Profits - The asphalt Brent crack spread was 69, with a daily change of -45 and a weekly change of 7. The ordinary refinery comprehensive profit was 475, with a daily change of -23 and a weekly change of 3. The Ma Rui - type refinery comprehensive profit was 106, with a daily change of -29 and a weekly change of 7 [4]. - The import profit from South Korea to East China was -107, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 2. The import profit from Singapore to South China was -1101, with a daily change of -91 and a weekly change of -87 [4]. Related Prices - The price of Brent crude oil on May 29 was 64.9, with a daily change of 0.8 and a weekly change of 0.5. The gasoline market price in Shandong was 7482, with a daily change of 16 and a weekly change of 77. The diesel market price in Shandong was 6581, with a daily change of 44 and a weekly change of 62. The residue oil market price in Shandong was 3795, with no daily or weekly change [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of bearish factor realization. With unstable macro - environment and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. There is inventory accumulation during holidays in the upstream and coal - chemical sector. The overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase. The domestic linear production is increasing month - on - month. New device pressure is high in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: There is inventory accumulation in the upstream and mid - stream. The basis is +10, and the non - standard price spread is neutral. Import profit is around - 500. With few known future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and the finished - product inventory is moderately high. Under the background of over - capacity, the 05 contract is under pressure. Pressure relief requires an increase in exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million - ton PDH devices [6]. - **PVC**: The basis has strengthened. The mid - and upstream inventory is continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of Northwest devices is ongoing. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in June. The current static inventory is decreasing from a high level, and downstream performance is mediocre. Key factors to watch include exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工 [10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 22 to May 28, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2315 to 2255, and the daily change on May 28 was 5. The import profit remained stable, and the daily change of the main - contract basis was - 15 [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From May 22 to May 28, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780. The North China LL price decreased from 7260 to 6980, with a daily change of - 45 on May 28. The import profit remained at - 224, and the main - contract futures price decreased to 6972, with a daily change of - 35 [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From May 22 to May 28, the Shandong propylene price decreased from 6530 to 6380, with a daily change of - 60 on May 28. The main - contract futures price decreased to 6893, with a daily change of - 3 [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 22 to May 28, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2500 to 2400. The ethylene - based PVC price in East China remained at 5500, and the daily change of the calcium - carbide - based PVC price in East China was - 30 on May 28 [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated. The 380 - grade near - end ran strongly, the monthly spread strengthened again, and the basis fluctuated. The low - sulfur cracking spread fluctuated, the near - end monthly spread declined, and the basis fluctuated. [3] - This week, there was a significant inventory build - up on land in Singapore, a slight inventory build - up at ARA ports, and a drawdown of residual oil in the US. Recently, the low - sulfur valuation has been realized, and there is room for recovery in cracking spreads and monthly spreads after supply resumes. [3] - The high - sulfur cracking spread ran strongly, and the profit was higher than the historical average. This year, in China, due to the impact of consumption tax deductions and tariff adjustments, the demand for fuel oil as refinery feedstock has dropped significantly. In the marine fuel sector, the global high - sulfur marine fuel consumption from January to March increased by 2% year - on - year, while that in Singapore remained basically flat, and the total marine fuel consumption was weak year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on global trade activities. [4] - Recently, Saudi Arabia's net imports have rebounded, and Egypt's purchases have continued. The high - sulfur near - end is strong, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of a medium - to - long - term decline in the high - sulfur cracking spread. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From May 22 to May 28, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased by 12.82, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by 7.11, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 0.65, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased by 10.94, Rotterdam VLSFO - GO M1 decreased by 3.83, LGO - Brent M1 increased by 0.60, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased by 5.71. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From May 22 to May 28, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 5.94, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 5.93, Singapore VLSFO M decreased by 3.49, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 decreased by 0.20, Singapore VLSFO - GO M1 increased by 1.47, and Singapore 380cst - GO M1 decreased by 2.01. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From May 22 to May 28, 2025, the FOB price of 380cst increased by 7.87, the FOB price of VLSFO decreased by 3.06, the 380 - grade basis increased by 0.95, the high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 1.6, and the low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference increased by 1.2. [2] Domestic FU Data - From May 22 to May 28, 2025, the price of FU 01 decreased by 2, FU 05 remained unchanged, FU 09 increased by 5, FU 01 - 05 decreased by 2, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 5, and FU 09 - 01 increased by 7. [2] Domestic LU Data - From May 22 to May 28, 2025, the price of LU 01 decreased by 27, LU 05 decreased by 4, LU 09 decreased by 34, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 23, LU 05 - 09 increased by 30, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 7. [3]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The terminal downstream demand for polyolefins has entered the traditional off - season, with limited market demand, general restocking enthusiasm, mainly rigid - demand procurement, and a cold market trading atmosphere. The supply side continues to increase, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly improved. Currently, the number of PE inventory maintenance devices has increased, alleviating the PE supply side. The previously shut - down PP devices have gradually restarted, and the upstream production inventory of polyolefins has been depleted. It is expected that the future supply will increase. The downstream demand is in the off - season, the agricultural film operating rate is at a low level, the packaging film operating rate fluctuates slightly, and the operating rates of industries such as plastic weaving and BOPP have increased slightly [2] - For the trading strategy, it is recommended to be cautiously bearish on plastics for single - side trading, and there is no strategy for inter - period trading [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 6972 yuan/ton (- 35), the PP main contract closed at 6893 yuan/ton (- 3), the LL North China spot was 7080 yuan/ton (- 50), the LL East China spot was 7200 yuan/ton (- 50), the PP East China spot was 7060 yuan/ton (+ 0), the LL North China basis was 108 yuan/ton (- 15), the LL East China basis was 228 yuan/ton (- 15), and the PP East China basis was 167 yuan/ton (+ 3) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 78.0% (- 1.4%), and the PP operating rate was 76.8% (+ 0.3%). The PE oil - based production profit was 533.5 yuan/ton (- 10.5), the PP oil - based production profit was 103.5 yuan/ton (- 10.5), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 363.1 yuan/ton (- 91.3) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No relevant data presented in the provided content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit was - 213.2 yuan/ton (- 64.7), the PP import profit was - 619.4 yuan/ton (- 85.1), and the PP export profit was 23.2 US dollars/ton (+ 10.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 14.1% (- 2.6%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.2% (+ 0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 45.7% (+ 0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.2% (+ 0.2%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No relevant data presented in the provided content

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Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: May 29, 2025 [3] Core Data Summary Futures Contracts - **Prices**: The prices of BU06, BU09, BU12, and BU03 contracts showed varying degrees of change. For example, the BU06 contract decreased by 35 - 34 points on a daily basis and 60 - 52 points on a weekly basis [4]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 407,985 on May 28, a daily decrease of 50,689 and a weekly increase of 87,988. The open interest was 406,500, a daily increase of 26,024 and a weekly increase of 1,891 [4]. Spot Market - **Low - end Prices**: The low - end prices in different regions had different trends. For instance, the low - end price in the Shandong market increased by 30 points both daily and weekly to 3,480, while the price in the East China market remained unchanged at 3,520 [4]. - **Specific Brands**: The price of Jingbo (Haiyun) increased by 20 points daily and 40 points weekly to 3,610 [4]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - **Basis**: The basis in different regions changed. For example, the Shandong basis increased by 90 points weekly to - 1, and the East China basis increased by 60 points weekly to 39 [4]. - **Calendar Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the 03 - 06 spread increased by 27 points daily and 47 points weekly to - 262 [4]. Crack Spreads and Profits - **Crack Spreads**: The asphalt Brent crack spread increased by 58 points daily and 83 points weekly to 112 [4]. - **Profits**: The asphalt Marrow profit increased by 52 points daily and 75 points weekly to 35. The ordinary refinery's comprehensive profit increased by 22 points daily and 89 points weekly to 497 [4].

Report Overview - The report is a fuel oil morning report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on May 28, 2025, presenting fuel oil data from May 21 - 27, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated, the 380 near - end ran strongly, the monthly spread strengthened again, and the basis fluctuated. The low - sulfur crack spread fluctuated, the near - end monthly spread declined, and the basis fluctuated. This week, there was a significant inventory build - up in Singapore onshore, a slight inventory build - up at ARA ports, and a decline in US residual oil inventory. Recently, the low - sulfur valuation has been realized, and there is room for repair in the crack spread and monthly spread after supply recovery. The high - sulfur crack spread is running strongly, with profits higher than the historical average. This year, due to the impact of consumption tax deductions and tariff adjustments in China, the demand for fuel oil refinery feedstock has dropped significantly. In terms of marine fuel, the global high - sulfur marine fuel from January to March increased by 2% year - on - year, Singapore remained basically flat, and the total marine fuel was weaker year - on - year. Follow - up attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on global trade activities. Recently, Saudi Arabia's net imports have rebounded, and Egypt's purchases have continued, resulting in a strong near - end of high - sulfur fuel oil. Attention should be paid to the opportunity for the high - sulfur crack spread to decline in the medium - to - long - term [4][5] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | Change from May 21 - 27, 2025 | | --- | --- | | 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | -3.16 | | 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | -5.00 | | HSFO - Brent M1 | 0.55 | | 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | -4.12 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -0.88 | | LGO - Brent M1 | -0.02 | | VLSFO - HSFO M1 | -1.84 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Type | Change from May 21 - 27, 2025 | | --- | --- | | 380cst M1 | -8.12 | | 180cst M1 | -7.36 | | VLSFO M1 | -2.10 | | Gasoil M1 | -0.12 | | 380cst - Brent M1 | -1.01 | | VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -1.21 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | Change from May 21 - 27, 2025 | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -9.86 | | FOB VLSFO | -4.19 | | 380 Basis | -1.65 | | High - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 1.3 | | Low - sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | -1.2 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Type | Change from May 21 - 27, 2025 | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | -5 | | FU 05 | -16 | | FU 09 | -17 | | FU 01 - 05 | 11 | | FU 05 - 09 | 1 | | FU 09 - 01 | -12 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Type | Change from May 21 - 27, 2025 | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | -16 | | LU 05 | -3 | | LU 09 | -16 | | LU 01 - 05 | -13 | | LU 05 - 09 | 13 | | LU 09 - 01 | 0 | [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: PX supply is increasing as PX device maintenance ends and device loads rapidly recover, including those of companies like CICC, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Shenghong, and overseas aromatic hydrocarbon devices are also gradually recovering. The domestic PTA device maintenance is ending, the PTA basis is weakening, and the market is under selling pressure. The positive spread has weakened, the PTA monthly spread has decreased, and polyester factories may slightly reduce production [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): The port inventory in East China remains at over 700,000 tons with little change. The load of coal - based ethylene glycol devices is rising, but coal prices are also increasing. The profit of coal - based devices is compressed, and mainstream device loads are about to be maintained, leading to a subsequent de - stocking phase [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **Crude Oil**: The INE crude oil price dropped from 459.7 yuan/barrel on May 26, 2025, to 458.3 yuan/barrel on May 27, 2025, a decrease of 1.4 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA market declined slightly. The PTA - SC spread increased by 26.17 yuan/ton, the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0091. The PTA futures price rose by 16 yuan/ton, the spot price dropped by 30 yuan/ton, the spot processing fee decreased by 30.3 yuan/ton, the on - screen processing fee decreased by 19.3 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 10 yuan/ton. The number of PTA warehouse receipts remained unchanged [2]. - **MEG**: The spot price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang decreased by 3 yuan/ton. The futures price first declined and then rose, and the basis strengthened. The MEG - naphtha spread increased by 0.8 yuan/ton, the MEG domestic price decreased by 28 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 16 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - **PX**: The start - up rate remained at 79.18% [2]. - **PTA**: The start - up rate remained at 79.28% [2]. - **MEG**: The start - up rate remained at 51.60% [2]. - **Polyester**: The polyester load increased from 90.75% to 90.81%, an increase of 0.06% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F remained unchanged. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY increased by 35 yuan/ton, and the filament sales rate increased from 36% to 57%, a 21 - percentage - point increase [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 10 yuan/ton, the cash flow increased from - 24 yuan/ton to 1 yuan/ton, and the staple fiber sales rate increased from 45% to 54%, a 9 - percentage - point increase [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The price of semi - bright chips decreased by 40 yuan/ton, the cash flow decreased from - 154 yuan/ton to - 159 yuan/ton, and the chip sales rate decreased from 65% to 38%, a 27 - percentage - point decrease [2]. Device Maintenance - Due to the recent rapid increase in raw material prices, three major polyester filament manufacturers have decided to immediately implement production cuts for loss - making products and plan further production cuts to be implemented in the short term [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents the basis, price spreads, and other data of various commodities including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures on different dates from May 21 to May 27, 2025, offering data support for investors to analyze market trends and arbitrage opportunities. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The basis of power coal from May 21 to May 27, 2025, was - 190.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis on May 27, 2025, was - 7.49 yuan/ton, showing a change compared to previous days. The basis of fuel oil was not available on May 27, and the crude oil/asphalt ratio was 0.1302 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis of various chemicals such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of natural rubber on May 27 was - 95 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Different inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) were presented for chemicals like natural rubber, methanol, and PTA [11]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., also showed variations on different dates [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of rebar on May 27 was 140.0 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Different inter - month spreads were presented for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal [16]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Ratios such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, and coke/coking coal, as well as the spread of rebar - hot - rolled coil, were provided [16]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of copper on May 27 was 370 yuan/ton [24]. 3.4.2 London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss were provided for copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the LME spread of copper on May 27 was 40.08 [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 on May 27 was - 64 yuan/ton [40]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Different inter - month spreads were presented for various agricultural products [40]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Ratios such as soybean No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., were provided [40]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on May 27 was 30.20 [48]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Different inter - month spreads (next - current, current - quarter - current, etc.) were presented for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [48].