印度为什么对美国一跪不起？15国向美求和，美国的"后招"又是什么呢？ 在特朗普政府的"关税大棒"威胁下，已经有至少15个国家开始主动找上美国，寻求贸易谈判，其中就包括印度。近日，印度商业和工业部在一份声明中声 称，印美双方讨论了"到2025年秋季前达成互利的、多部门的双边贸易协定"的路线图，其中包括通过提早共赢机会来实现这一目标。换句话说就是，印度这 明显就是在暗示与美国的谈判存在着实现"提早共赢"的可能性。除了印度之外，日本、韩国在与美国政府的贸易谈判中也都处于领先地位。目前来看的话， 这些国家与特朗普政府的谈判主要分为两步走：一是制定包括谈判范围和目标等在内的"框架"；二是敲定彼此关切的细节。说的简单点就是，先制定谈判框 架，再进行实质性谈判。而在这过程中，印度莫迪政府与美国的谈判进程是最快的。之所以会这样，主要原因就是莫迪政府对特朗普的关税政策没有过多的 反抗，基本上算是一跪不起。 在特朗普的所谓"对等关税"政策刚出来的时候，莫迪政府首先就站出来向特朗普政府示好，试图通过积极采购美国的能源、军事装备，寻求美国在关税上对 印度手下留情。而莫迪政府的这种妥协姿态，恰恰是特朗普政府所想看到的。在这之前，特朗普 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. needs to learn from current experiences and return to a path of mutual respect and win-win cooperation with China [1][9] - Trump's second term has been marked by a lack of significant achievements, with his policies causing disruptions in global supply chains [4][5] - The U.S. government's tariff policies have created uncertainty in global markets, influenced by both economic and political pressures [6][7] Group 2 - Trump's approach to China has shifted from a focus on diplomacy to prioritizing economic measures, with tariffs being implemented more aggressively in his second term [8] - There is a significant need for the U.S. to move beyond a narrow agenda in its relationship with China, focusing instead on mutual respect and balanced interests [9]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant shift in the US-China trade dynamics since the implementation of Trump's tariffs, with the share of US imports from China dropping from 21.6% in 2017 to 13.4% in 2024, indicating a rapid "de-China-ization" trend [11][13][31] - Conversely, China's exports to the US have increased by 22% from 2017 to 2024, with the export value rising from 429.8 billion USD to 524.7 billion USD, showcasing a contrasting trend in trade statistics [11][12][31] - The report notes that the indirect value added from China in US imports has grown significantly, from 75.3 billion USD in 2017 to 148.9 billion USD in 2024, a 97.7% increase, indicating resilience in the value chain despite direct trade reductions [26][27][31] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the US's attempts to decouple from China have not significantly reduced the overall trade linkages, with the indirect trade connections through value chains largely compensating for the decline in direct trade [4][31][32] - The report discusses the impact of Trump's tariffs on global supply chains, particularly highlighting that labor-intensive products, which are most affected by tariffs, are the least likely to return to the US [5][37][41] - It emphasizes that the diversification of supply chains is becoming essential for US importers to mitigate tariff risks, particularly in labor-intensive industries, which are expected to accelerate their dispersal [5][48][50]

Market Performance - On May 7, major indices opened significantly higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.17%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.35%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.91% [1] - The leading sectors included brokerage, military industry, and real estate, while financial technology, data elements, AI applications, photolithography factories, cross-border payments, low-altitude economy, servers, computing power, and photovoltaic concept stocks showed active performance [1] Policy Impact - The recent market opening surge is likely influenced by new policies announced by the People's Bank of China (PBOC), which includes optimizing two monetary policy tools to support the capital market, combining a 500 billion yuan swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies with a 300 billion yuan stock repurchase loan, totaling 800 billion yuan [2][4] - The PBOC also announced a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, and a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates [4][5] Economic Outlook - Analysts from JD Group indicated that as the second quarter progresses, China’s economy will face significant challenges due to the impact of tariff shocks and the diminishing effects of certain stimulus policies [6] - They emphasized the importance of enhancing the effectiveness of fiscal policies, particularly by focusing on investments in human capital to strengthen policy stimulus effects and promote economic structural transformation [6] International Trade Relations - The European Union (EU) has expressed readiness to respond to the U.S. imposition of tariffs on EU imports, with the EU Trade Commissioner stating that the U.S. tariffs cover 70% of EU exports to the U.S., potentially rising to 97% following further investigations [7] - U.S. Treasury Secretary defended the administration's tariff policies, claiming they would reinforce the U.S. position as a global capital destination, although many industry executives expressed concerns over the adverse effects of aggressive tariffs on investment plans [8][9]

本文由第三方AI基于财新文章 [https://a.caixin.com/7KAEJKQc](https://a.caixin.com/7KAEJKQc) 提炼总结而成，可能与原文真实意图存在偏差。不代表财新观点和立场。推荐点击链接阅读原文细致比对和校验 Summary of Key Points Industry or Company Involved - The summary primarily discusses the political and economic implications of Donald Trump's second term as President of the United States, focusing on trade policies, tariffs, and their effects on the U.S. economy and global markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Tariffs on Global Trade**: Trump's administration has implemented extensive tariffs, significantly affecting global trade dynamics and increasing inflation risks in the U.S. and abroad [9][20][28]. 2. **Economic Growth Projections**: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded U.S. economic growth forecasts for 2025 to 1.8%, a reduction of 0.9 percentage points from earlier estimates, largely due to the impact of tariffs [9][28]. 3. **Consumer and Business Confidence**: There has been a notable decline in consumer and business confidence in the U.S., attributed to the uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies [9][19][20]. 4. **Stock Market Reactions**: Following the announcement of tariffs, the S&P 500 index dropped by 8%, and the dollar index fell by 9%, indicating market volatility and investor concerns [12][19]. 5. **Political Support and Public Opinion**: Trump's approval ratings have plummeted, with a CNN poll indicating a 41% satisfaction rate, the lowest for a president at the 100-day mark in 70 years [13][29]. 6. **Trade Negotiations**: Despite the imposition of tariffs, the U.S. has not yet finalized any trade agreements with key partners, although negotiations are ongoing with countries like Japan and South Korea [21][22]. 7. **Inflation and Economic Indicators**: Inflation expectations among consumers have risen significantly, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reflecting a decline in consumer confidence [26][28]. 8. **Sector-Specific Impacts**: The airline industry has retracted its profit forecasts due to weakened domestic travel demand, influenced by the broader economic uncertainty [25][24]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Internal Administration Conflicts**: There are reports of internal discord within Trump's cabinet, particularly regarding trade policy, which may hinder effective governance [10][32]. 2. **Long-term Economic Risks**: Analysts warn that the current trajectory of U.S. economic policy could lead to prolonged stagnation or recession, especially with the upcoming midterm elections in 2026 [29][30]. 3. **Public Sentiment on Immigration Policies**: Trump's immigration policies have faced backlash, with a shift in public opinion as support for his immigration stance has turned negative [41][43]. 4. **Global Economic Integration**: The IMF notes that the current global economic landscape is characterized by high integration, making the impacts of U.S. tariffs more pronounced across supply chains [23][28]. 5. **Market Reactions to Federal Reserve Policies**: Trump's public criticism of the Federal Reserve and calls for interest rate cuts have raised concerns about the independence of monetary policy [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the discussions surrounding Trump's administration and its implications for the U.S. economy and global trade dynamics.

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, emphasized that the Trump administration's economic agenda, including tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation, aims to strengthen the U.S. as a global capital destination [1] - Many corporate executives expressed concerns about the aggressive tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, which have led to companies pausing their investment plans [1] - Citigroup's CEO, Jane Fraser, noted that clients are preparing for difficult situations, with companies strengthening balance sheets and delaying business expenditures or investments [1] Group 2 - A Reuters poll indicated a high risk of global economic recession, with 92% of economists stating that the Trump administration's tariff policies have harmed business confidence [2] - The IMF's Managing Director, Georgieva, revised the global GDP growth forecast for FY2025 down from 3.3% to 2.8%, attributing this to the impact of U.S. tariffs [2] - Georgieva warned that the world is moving towards a period of increased shocks and volatility, with developed economies like the U.S. facing more inflation [2]

据央视新闻，4月下旬，有美国CNN记者采访义乌小商品城（600415）商户聂自勤，面对"对等关税"下 如何处理美国客户的退单，她坚定果决的回应在社交媒体上走红，也因此被网友称为"义乌最牛老板 娘"。 高峰期，聂自勤经营的万圣节礼品批发业务一年的规模可达6000万元，其中50%的采购客户来自美国。 "如果美国(客户)不要，那我就给南美客户。"聂自勤接受CNN记者采访当天，恰好有南美客户在店里采 购产品，一周时间过去了，之前给聂自勤下订单的美国客户并没有取消订单，而是选择了观望，等待转 机的到来。 4月底，《每日经济新闻》记者从相关进出口协会了解到，国内部分供应商已接到沃尔玛恢复供货的通 知，且关税成本由美国客户承担。聂自勤一边等美国客户的通知，一边也在想办法"主动出击"，通过开 拓多元市场和加大内销等渠道，来减轻因货物积压带来的影响。 2007年跟随父亲从河南来义乌创业，聂自勤在义乌一待就是18年，14平方米的店铺如今价值千万元。她 从做代工起家，高峰期一度拥有上千名员工。国际经贸的波动，在这一爿小小的批发店铺里，总能给她 带来最直接的影响。聂自勤坦言，市场会洗出去一些掉队的人，但这是义乌市场的常态，"在义乌没 ...

宏观策略周论："对等关税"以来的输家和赢家 20250506 摘要 • 对等关税后，全球资产表现分化，避险资产如黄金、比特币震荡上行；美 国资产替代需求增加，资金流向欧洲、日本，新兴市场内部资金腾挪，中 国市场（尤其是港股）相对落后。 • 尽管五一假期期间美股未大幅下跌，但内需板块相对泡沫化，外需板块受 关税拖累。美国能源、运输业和中国互联网、软件、非银金融、银行业受 影响较大。 • 中国房地产脱困可借鉴国际经验，如日本长期低息贷款和城市规划，生育 支持政策可参考日韩经验，提供经济补贴、完善育儿设施，刺激内需，提 高出生率。 • 美国股市、债市、汇率三杀，资金流出美国，可能回流港股或欧洲，但新 兴市场风险较高，关税不确定性犹存，外资对美国存量资金影响有限。 • 美联储降息预期推迟至 7 月，美债利率交易在 3.8%左右，下行受限。二 季度美国经济面临关税谈判、减税和汇率变化三大关键因素。 • 港股市场宜采取低迷时积极介入、亢奋时适度获利的策略。行业配置应考 虑成长与防御、外需与内需两条线，并结合宏观经济影响进行细致分析。 • 人民币汇率韧性超出预期，并非完全由基本面解释，伴随结构性或资金面 因素。中国央行可能 ...

2025.05. 06 本文字数：2836，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 高雅 封图 | 新华社 特朗普政府的关税政策给美国大小企业带来了棘手的业务危机。 从对冲基金巨头阿克曼（Bill Ackman）、桥水基金创始人达利欧（Ray Dalio），到佛罗里达州的造 纸公司和纽约市的一家酒水零售商，美国企业家不得不使用诉讼、公开喊话以及私下游说等一切途径 劝阻特朗普收回"对等关税"。 目前，全美范围内至少有七起案件以《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）为依据挑战特朗普的关税措 施，旨在推翻特朗普的关税政策。 牛津经济研究院美国副经济学家兹维默（Grace Zwemmer）对第一财经记者表示，4月美国消费者信 心指数已降至2020年5月以来的最低水平，这主要源于对关税可能导致未来价格上涨的担忧。后续更 多负面影响需要一段时间才能显现，而供应链中断的不确定性将延长通胀高企的周期。 美关税政策遭遇多起诉讼 自特朗普政府提出所谓"对等关税"政策一个月以来，一场跨州、跨行业的法律合围正在形成。从州政 府到原住民部落，从造纸企业到桌游制造商，美国企业和律师开始挑战总统随意设定关税的权力合法 性。 在州层面，4月1 ...

Group 1: Market Reactions to Tariff Policies - The "reciprocal tariff" policy in the U.S. has led to significant market volatility, with major indices experiencing declines and a total market value loss of approximately $3.1 trillion [1] - Following the announcement of the tariff policy, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 3.17% and the S&P 500 by 0.76%, marking three consecutive months of decline [1] - Recent rebounds in the U.S. stock market are attributed to easing overseas pressures, positive earnings reports from major tech companies, and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [2][3] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Corporate Earnings - Concerns remain regarding the potential transformation of market pressures from risk appetite shocks to weak economic data, particularly as the effects of tariffs may not be fully realized yet [3] - The earnings guidance from major companies during the earnings season has shown pessimistic signals, with Apple projecting a $900 million loss due to tariffs and several companies withdrawing their annual financial guidance [4][5] - The disparity in corporate performance is evident, with companies like Apple facing significant impacts from tariffs, while others like Google show resilience [5] Group 3: Impact on the Film Industry - The U.S. tariff policy is extending to the film industry, with a proposed 100% tariff on foreign-produced films, which could drastically increase production costs and reduce market revenues for major studios [8][9] - The potential for job losses in Hollywood and a decline in the industry's ecosystem is highlighted, as increased costs may drive smaller production companies out of the market [9] - The global cultural industry may experience a shift, with retaliatory tariffs from trade partners and a rise in local cultural industries filling the void left by U.S. films [10][11]