Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced new sanctions against Russia, specifically targeting major oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft, which has significant implications for Bulgaria's energy supply and economy [1][2]. Group 1: Sanctions and Immediate Impact - The sanctions include Lukoil and its 34 subsidiaries, affecting oil and gas exploration, extraction, and development [1]. - Lukoil has initiated the process of selling its overseas assets in response to the sanctions [1]. - Bulgaria heavily relies on Lukoil, particularly the Burgas refinery, which produces 190,000 barrels of oil per day and supplies over two-thirds of the country's fuel [1]. Group 2: Economic and Employment Implications - The Burgas refinery is a critical player in Bulgaria's economy, contributing significantly to GDP and creating numerous jobs [2]. - If the refinery ceases operations, it would not only disrupt fuel supply but also severely impact the job market and local economy [2]. Group 3: Government Response and Strategies - The Bulgarian government is exploring various options, including appointing a "special manager" to oversee refinery operations and maintain supply stability [3]. - Concerns have been raised about the feasibility of this management approach due to legal and operational challenges [3]. - The Bulgarian parliament has passed amendments to the Investment Promotion Law, requiring government approval for any sale or transfer of Lukoil's assets in Bulgaria [3]. Group 4: Legal and Strategic Considerations - Experts suggest that Bulgaria could seek a delay in sanctions, citing precedents from Germany and Serbia [4]. - Although U.S. sanctions primarily affect transactions involving U.S. entities, the reliance on the U.S. dollar in global trade may complicate operations for affected companies [4]. - Transactions using non-U.S. currencies could potentially mitigate the impact of the sanctions [4].

Core Viewpoint - The short-term outlook for gold remains uncertain with high volatility, and geopolitical risks are easing. Without unexpected positive factors, London gold is expected to consolidate before reaching new highs in the first quarter of next year [1][13]. Group 1: Recent Market Movements - The recent significant drop in gold prices is primarily due to high implied volatility and profit-taking after substantial gains, alongside a market that has over-priced geopolitical instability, particularly in U.S.-China relations and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which have shown signs of easing [2][5]. Group 2: Long-term Bullish Logic for Gold - Macroeconomic Narrative: Since the pandemic, U.S. debt and fiscal deficits have expanded, with federal debt reaching historical highs. Concerns over the sustainability of U.S. Treasuries are impacting the international capital flow system. The expansion of the U.S. twin deficits is forcing a crisis transfer abroad, amidst rising global economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks. There are three potential solutions to the global debt issue: (1) unexpected high inflation that erodes debt, benefiting gold and commodities; (2) technological advancements leading to economic growth that mitigates debt, favoring AI technology; (3) proactive fiscal tightening, which may exacerbate domestic and international conflicts and reverse globalization [5][6]. Group 3: Supporting Factors for Gold Prices - Fundamental Factors: A decline in real interest rates continues to provide marginal support for gold prices. Following the October meeting, the Federal Reserve has initiated a new round of rate cuts and plans to halt balance sheet reduction in December, with ongoing monetary easing and rising inflation expected to support gold prices [9]. - Financial Factors: ETF investments and central bank purchases of gold remain key drivers for sustained price increases. Since late August, European investors have been notably absent. If the U.S. economy weakens further, European investors are likely to divest from dollar assets and reinvest in gold, potentially driving prices to new highs. Additionally, the ongoing global debt crisis is leading to a restructuring of the monetary credit system, de-dollarization, and a trend of central banks continuing to purchase gold, all of which will support gold price increases [10].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with international gold prices fluctuating around $4000 per ounce, influenced by changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations and global macroeconomic uncertainties [1][3] Group 1: Short-term Factors - The recent drop in international gold prices from a historical high of $4390 per ounce to $3987 per ounce, a nearly 9% decline, was primarily due to reduced expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a strengthening dollar [3][5] - Technical indicators suggest that gold prices are still in an overbought territory, indicating a need for further adjustment despite recent stabilization [5] - Demand for gold has temporarily weakened as the opportunity cost of holding gold increases with a stronger dollar, leading to reduced investor interest [5] Group 2: Long-term Support Factors - Long-term support for gold remains strong due to persistent inflation, with the U.S. core PCE index still above the 2% target and long-term inflation expectations around 2.5% [3][6] - Central banks globally, including those in Russia and India, have increased their gold holdings by a total of 126 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, providing a significant boost to the gold market [3][6] - Geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the dollar system also contribute to long-term support for gold prices [6] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to avoid speculative buying in the short term and consider accumulating gold if prices fall below $3800 per ounce, as this level represents a long-term support point [8] - For long-term investment, gold should be included as part of an asset allocation strategy, with a recommended allocation of 10-15% to hedge against inflation and dollar depreciation [9] - The upcoming price movements will reflect a battle between short-term expectations and long-term trends, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a rational approach to investment in gold [9]

GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint 国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2025年11月2日 | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：短期关注地缘风险， | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 不宜单边追多 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 本周原油观点：短期关注地缘风险 ...

黄金市场在4000美元附近保持稳定，尽管美联储的鹰派言论和美元走强限制了黄金的上涨空间，但中长 期的支撑因素依然存在。投资者应关注未来几周美联储政策变化和贸易谈判进展，这些因素将深刻影响 黄金价格。短期内黄金可能维持震荡整理，投资者应保持谨慎，等待更多明确的市场信号。 美联储官员的鹰派言论加大了市场的不确定性。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克明确反对降息，而亚特兰大联 储主席博斯蒂克则支持继续降息，认为经济仍处于紧缩状态。政策意见分歧增加了市场对美联储未来政 策路径的猜测，也导致黄金价格波动。同时，美联储的鹰派立场使得美元和美国国债收益率得到支撑， 从而进一步限制了黄金的上涨空间。然而，央行购金和地缘政治风险仍为黄金提供了长期支撑，市场的 中期前景依然看好。 黄金价格在4000美元附近稳定，尽管经历了几次回调，依旧保持在关键支撑位。美元指数持续上升，接 近99.70，强势美元和高企的美国国债收益率对黄金价格构成压力。中美贸易局势稍有缓和，避险需求 减弱，进一步消减了黄金的吸引力。随着美联储在近期的会议中淡化降息预期，市场对降息的期待逐步 减弱，也使得黄金的上涨动力受到限制。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，未来几个月的货币政策将更 ...

Core Viewpoint - The United States has decided to target military facilities in Venezuela, potentially linked to drug trafficking, which has led to a short-term increase in international oil prices [1]. Group 1: Military Actions and Reactions - The U.S. plans to strike military facilities associated with drug smuggling in Venezuela, with actions possibly imminent [1]. - Following the announcement, international oil prices saw a short-term rise, with WTI and Brent crude oil both increasing by nearly 1% [1]. - The U.S. Navy's guided missile destroyer "Gravely" recently completed exercises near Trinidad and Tobago, which prompted strong protests from the Venezuelan government [2]. Group 2: Oil Market Impact - WTI crude oil rose to $61.15, up by $0.58 or 0.96%, while Brent crude oil increased to $64.91, up by $0.54 or 0.84% [2]. - The main fuel futures contract saw an intraday increase of 2.00%, reaching 2807.00 yuan per ton [1].

Market Overview - Gold prices reached historical highs in October, driven by increased risk aversion due to multiple factors including U.S. government shutdown and Fed rate cut expectations[5] - The U.S. government shutdown has caused an estimated economic loss of at least $18 billion, with potential permanent losses of up to $14 billion if it continues[8] - The easing of U.S.-China trade tensions has led to a decline in gold prices as risk demand decreases[11] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00% on October 29, marking the fifth cut since September 2024[15] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, increasing uncertainty around future monetary policy[17] - The probability of a 25 basis point cut in December dropped to 67.8% following Powell's comments, reflecting market skepticism about aggressive easing[18] Global Gold Demand - Global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons in Q3 2025, with investment demand leading the growth, particularly through ETFs which saw inflows of 222 tons, amounting to $26 billion[28] - Central banks continued to increase gold reserves, with China's central bank adding 5 tons in Q3, maintaining a total of 2,304 tons[28] - The World Gold Council reported that Q3 2025 saw a 44% year-on-year increase in total demand value, reaching $146 billion[28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The oil price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations. The weak fundamentals will continue to put pressure on the oil price, while the uncertainty of geopolitics will intensify market volatility. The "weak expectation" fundamentals will suppress the oil price performance, but the shale oil cost will provide psychological support, and the market's downward space may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the WTI crude oil range of $55 - 65 per barrel [7][55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, the crude oil market showed a narrow - range fluctuation pattern under the game of long and short factors. At the beginning of the month, OPEC+ announced to maintain a small increase in production, and the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions suppressed the oil price from both supply and demand sides. At the end of the month, the US sanctions on Russian oil companies led to a rebound in the oil price. In the future, the weak fundamentals and geopolitical uncertainties will make the oil price continue wide - range fluctuations [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Sino - US Relations**: The Sino - US leaders' meeting and the positive results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have led to a warming at the macro - level. The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and continue to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for one year. Both sides will adjust relevant measures and extend some tariff exclusion measures [10]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Decision**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but there is uncertainty about a December rate cut. After Fed Chairman Powell's "hawkish" speech, the probability of a December rate cut is expected to be 71%, lower than the previous 90%. If economic data further decline, it will strengthen the expectation of crude oil supply surplus and suppress the oil price [13]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: There were frequent geopolitical events in October, including US - Russia phone communication, US sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the EU's 19th round of sanctions on Russia. These sanctions have increased geopolitical risks, causing the oil price to rebound. However, the impact on Russian oil production and global supply is limited [14]. - **OPEC+ Production Policy**: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. Saudi Arabia is the main force of the increase. The market expects OPEC+ to continue a small increase in production in the November meeting, which will put pressure on the oil price [16]. - **IEA Forecast**: The IEA raised the global crude oil supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day in 2025 and lowered the demand growth forecast by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, maintaining the expectation of supply surplus [17]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - OPEC+ production increased in September. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran were the main contributors to the increase. OPEC+ is expected to fully implement the 2.2 million barrels per day production increase in the fourth quarter [19]. - US crude oil production reached a record high of 13.644 million barrels per day in the week ending October 24. The US oil drilling rig count increased slightly, but the rebound was limited, and it is expected to remain at a low level [22][24]. - **Demand Side** - In September, the US manufacturing PMI declined, and the Chicago PMI decreased slightly, which suppressed crude oil demand. The US refinery operating rate is expected to increase seasonally in the fourth quarter [26][32]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI rebounded but remained below the boom - bust line. The operating rates of Chinese refineries showed differentiation, and domestic crude oil consumption faces the pressure of a phased decline [40][44]. - **Inventory** - US EIA crude oil inventories and strategic petroleum reserve inventories decreased in the week ending October 24. Cushing crude oil inventories and gasoline inventories also decreased, but gasoline may face inventory accumulation pressure at the end of the fourth quarter [48][53].

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant decline of approximately 80%-90% in shareholders' profit for the six months ending September 30, 2025, compared to the same period last year, primarily due to the absence of non-recurring foreign exchange gains and proactive investments to address geopolitical risks [1] Financial Performance - The expected shareholders' profit for the current reporting period is projected to be around 2.88 million HKD, down from approximately 28.8 million HKD in the same period last year [1] Strategic Initiatives - The decline in profit is attributed to the lack of a significant net foreign exchange gain of about 9.3 million HKD that positively impacted last year's profit [1] - The company is actively investing to accelerate business and technological development while expanding its overseas production layout in response to evolving geopolitical risks [1] - These forward-looking initiatives involve prudent restructuring of resources to support sustainable and long-term growth, laying a solid foundation for future development [1]

Group 1 - The planned US-Russia summit in Budapest has been canceled, indicating a rapid decline in hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which adds new uncertainty to global markets [1] - US Secretary of State Rubio had a tense call with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, following a memorandum from Russia reiterating its conditions for resolving the conflict [1] - President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Russia's stance and stated he does not want to "waste time" on a meeting with President Putin [1][2] Group 2 - The US Treasury announced sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, which are expected to exert economic pressure on Russia [2] - President Putin responded to the sanctions by stating they are unfriendly but will not significantly impact the Russian economy, suggesting that buyers will need time to find alternatives to Russian oil [2] - Following the sanctions announcement, concerns over supply led to a rise in WTI and Brent crude oil prices, highlighting geopolitical risks as a key factor affecting energy prices [2]