中信钢铁指数报收 1,933.16 点，下跌 0.55%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.03pct， 位列 30 个中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 16 位。 重点领域分析： 投资策略：2026 年新的一年已经到来，过去两年我们用《走向成熟》、《时 代的周期》、《告别放任的年代》、《江河万古流》、《重估中国》以及《人间 正道是沧桑》六份周期深度报告去扭转过去盛行的用所谓的西方经验对中 国的悲观叙事。当 2025 年一连串事件冲击后，事实证明其实以前很多担 忧都是过虑了。社会认知开始反思，过去两三年一度流行的"中国经济的 日本叙事"论调也随之破产。其实我们生命中有很多周期很长以至于我们 不易察觉，只有有些距离感以后才能看清楚一些事情的轮廓。如今经过工 业化成熟后的转型蜕变，崭新的中国故事未来也将绽放光芒。在新的发展 阶段，后发工业国成熟后资本市场繁荣的基础是全社会总量的资本过剩， 结构上分别通过居民存款配置、金融机构大类资产配置、企业分红回购与 海外热钱等渠道注入市场，这些资金管道共同构成了增量资金的主要来 源，当其中一个部门形成较大资金流进入资本市场的时候，股市就会出现 趋势性牛市上涨的行情。当全社会将过剩资本通过以上 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [5] Core Views - The domestic flight ticket bookings for the New Year period in 2026 exceeded 3.83 million, a year-on-year increase of 28%, while international flight bookings surpassed 740,000, up 14% year-on-year, indicating strong demand [1][2] - The report remains optimistic about the long-term outlook for the aviation sector under the themes of "expanding domestic demand" and "anti-involution" [2][12] - In the oil shipping sector, attention is drawn to the support for freight rates during the off-season and the timing of investments, particularly focusing on China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy [3][15] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - The transportation sector index fell by 0.70% during the week of December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.83 percentage points [18] - The best-performing segments were air transportation and warehousing logistics, with increases of 5.14% and 0.41%, respectively [18][19] Travel - The report highlights the strong recovery in air travel demand, with a focus on the low growth rate of capacity supply and the continuous recovery of demand, which is expected to narrow the supply-demand gap [2][12] Shipping and Ports - Oil shipping rates have continued to decline, with VLCC market rates dropping to $34,158 per day as of December 31 [3][13] - The dry bulk shipping indices have also seen a decline, with the BDI index at 1,882 points on January 2, 2026 [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the support for freight rates during the off-season and the potential impact of geopolitical developments on shipping logistics [15] Logistics - The report identifies two main investment themes in the express delivery sector: 1. Expansion into overseas markets, with Jitu Express planning significant investments in new market operations [4][16] 2. The impact of anti-involution on the industry, where the growth rate is slowing due to increased competition and rising prices, leading to a concentration of market share among leading companies [4][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The combination of raw material winter storage and production restart expectations is expected to compress steel mill profits [3][5] - Overseas macro: Interest rates were cut as expected in December, releasing liquidity. Domestic macro: The Central Economic Work Conference mentioned "anti-involution" again. The special commentator of "Qiushi" magazine aims to improve and stabilize the real estate market expectations. The overall macro environment is relatively warm [5][8][9] - In the black产业链, after the festival, the capacity constraints of steel mills will ease, and with decent profits, it is expected that the molten iron output will stop falling and then fluctuate upwards. The slow destocking of hot-rolled coils restricts the overall rebound height of steel prices, so attention should be paid to the destocking speed of hot-rolled coils [5][13][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Steel Fundamental Data 3.1.1 Threaded Steel Basis Spread - Last week, the spot price of Shanghai threaded steel was 3300 (+10) yuan/ton, and the price of the 01 contract was 3100 (+3) yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract was 200 (+7) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was -22 (-1) yuan/ton [21] 3.1.2 Threaded Steel Demand - Second-hand housing transactions remain at a high level, indicating the existence of rigid demand. However, new home transactions remain at a low level, reflecting weak market confidence. Land transaction area also remains at a low level. It is currently the traditional off-season, and demand is at a low level [22][25][26] 3.1.3 MS Weekly Data - Supply and demand are both low, and inventory is healthy. The supply and inventory of long and short processes are also presented [28][29] 3.1.4 Threaded Steel Production Profit - Last week, the spot profit of threaded steel was 173 (+7) yuan/ton, the profit of the main contract was 144 (+9) yuan/ton, and the valley electricity profit of East China threaded steel was 203 (+47) yuan/ton [36] 3.2 Hot-Rolled Coil Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Hot-Rolled Coil Basis Spread - Last week, the spot price of Shanghai hot-rolled coil was 3270 (0) yuan/ton, and the futures price of the 01 contract was 3221 (-67) yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract was 49 (+67) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was -49 (-54) yuan/ton [41] 3.2.2 Hot-Rolled Coil Demand - The production schedules of the home appliance and automobile industries are poor, and the demand peak season is not prosperous. After January 1st next year, the new regulations on steel exports will be implemented, with stricter standards, and export by paying for orders will be restricted [43][44] 3.2.3 MS Weekly Data - Hot-rolled coil inventory is high, and production cuts are needed for destocking [49][50] 3.2.4 Hot-Rolled Coil Production Profit - Last week, the spot profit of hot-rolled coil was -21 (-4) yuan/ton, and the profit of the main contract was 142 (-8) yuan/ton [54] 3.3 Variety Spread Structure - The spreads between different steel products such as Shanghai cold-hot spread, Shanghai coil-thread spread, Shanghai medium plate-hot coil spread, etc. are presented [56][57][59] 3.4 Variety Regional Difference - The regional price differences of threaded steel, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil are presented [65][66][67] 3.5 Cold Roll and Medium Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The seasonal data of cold-rolled and medium plate inventory, production, and apparent consumption are presented [71]

Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a decline in profit margins from 8.03% in 2021 to 4.85% in 2024, with a slight recovery in net profit by 10.56% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [15][16][18] - The report recommends investment in refining and chemical, potash fertilizer, phosphorus chemicals, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) sectors due to expected improvements in supply-demand dynamics and profitability [15][18] Supply Side - The cumulative fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector turned negative in June 2025, indicating the end of the current expansion cycle [15] - Policies aimed at stabilizing growth in the petrochemical industry have been introduced to combat low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated capacities [15][16] - The approval for new chemical product capacities is expected to tighten, alleviating the oversupply issue in the petrochemical industry [15][18] Demand Side - Traditional demand is anticipated to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle, supported by monetary and fiscal policy stimuli [2] - Emerging demands from sectors such as renewable energy, SAF, and AI are expected to drive the need for key chemical materials [2] - China's chemical product sales account for over 40% of the global market, and the domestic industry is expected to gain market share as overseas capacities are cleared [2][18] Oil Prices and Market Trends - Brent crude oil averaged around $69.15 per barrel and WTI at $65.87 per barrel in 2025, with prices fluctuating due to various geopolitical and economic factors [3][17] - The overall cost for refining and chemical industries is expected to decrease, leading to a recovery in profitability [18] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights specific companies for investment: - **China Petroleum**: A leading comprehensive energy company with a strong position in the natural gas sector [20] - **Rongsheng Petrochemical**: Expected to see profit recovery with sulfur providing performance increments [20] - **Yaka International**: A rare potash fertilizer producer with ongoing capacity expansion [20] - **Chuanheng Co.**: Strong foundation in phosphate with significant resource increments [20] - **CNOOC**: A well-managed offshore oil and gas giant [20] - **Zhuoyue New Energy**: A leader in the domestic biodiesel sector focusing on SAF [20] Key Industry Research - The refining and chemical sector is expected to see continuous improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with profitability likely to recover due to policy and self-regulation measures [21][22] - The PTA industry is transitioning from "involution" competition to "high-quality development," with expectations for product price recovery [29][40] - The polyester bottle chip market is projected to stabilize with steady demand growth, despite recent price pressures [34][40]

烧碱：关注1月交割压力 PVC：震荡为主 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱观点：关注1月交割压力 | 供应 | 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为86.0%，较上周环比+1.3%。分区域来看，山东区域负荷先增后降，均值环比有所提升； | | --- | --- | | | 江西伴随着检修设备恢复带动开机提升；河南负荷小幅下滑。下周国内氯碱设备检修及重启并存，预估整体开机仍小幅上移。 | | | 氧化铝方面，短期因"反内卷"消息出现反弹，但基本面仍是高产量、高库存的格局，边际装置利润亏损，氧化铝减产只是时间问题。虽 | | 需求 | 然年底到明年年初氧化铝存在新增产能，但因耗碱量差异，未来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December indicates a recovery in China's economic activity, with all three major indices entering the expansion zone for the first time since April [1][4]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, exceeding market expectations [7]. - The production index and new orders index were reported at 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, both showing significant increases of 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points [7]. - The new export orders index increased by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0%, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [7]. - Large enterprises' PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.8%, while medium-sized enterprises' PMI rose to 49.8%, and small enterprises' PMI fell to 48.6% [7]. Key Industries - High-tech manufacturing PMI reached 52.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, indicating positive growth trends [8]. - Equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries both reported PMIs of 50.4%, entering the expansion zone [8]. - The construction industry PMI significantly increased to 52.8%, up 3.2 percentage points, marking a return to expansion after five months [15]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [12]. - The service sector PMI was reported at 49.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, with certain sectors like telecommunications and financial services showing strong growth [12]. - The construction industry's business activity expectation index was 57.4%, indicating optimism among construction firms [16]. Overall Economic Outlook - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities compared to the previous month [16]. - The service sector's business activity expectation index increased to 56.4%, reflecting enhanced confidence in future market development [16].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyin Securities highlights a recovery in domestic CPI and PPI, alongside a continued interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the transportation sector, particularly in aviation and express delivery, as well as in oil and bulk commodity supply chains [1][2][3]. Group 1: Macro and Industry Analysis - Domestic CPI and PPI indices are showing signs of recovery, while the Federal Reserve remains in a rate-cutting cycle [2][3]. - The express delivery industry is experiencing a narrowing of price declines due to ongoing "anti-involution" efforts, with average express delivery prices stabilizing [3][4]. - In aviation, ticket prices have shown significant recovery, with the average domestic ticket price in October 2025 reaching 809 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Two main investment themes are identified: 1. Opportunities in aviation and express delivery driven by "anti-involution" and price recovery in the domestic market [2][6]. 2. Investment prospects in oil and bulk commodity supply chains during the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle [2][5]. - Recommended companies in the express delivery sector include Jitu Express, Yunda Holdings, and SF Holdings, while in aviation, China National Airlines and China Eastern Airlines are highlighted [6]. Group 3: Bulk Commodity and Shipping Insights - Oil shipping rates have been rising, with OPEC's average crude oil production increasing by 3.4% year-on-year, and significant growth in imports from Brazil [5]. - The bulk shipping sector is benefiting from increased iron ore shipments from Brazil and Australia, with the BDI index showing upward trends [5]. - Major commodity supply chains are entering a replenishment phase, with improvements in the performance of companies like Xiamen Xiangyu [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyin Securities highlights a recovery in domestic CPI and PPI indices, alongside the ongoing interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the transportation sector, particularly in aviation and express delivery, as well as in oil and bulk commodity supply chains [1][2][3]. Group 1: Macro and Industry Analysis - Domestic CPI and PPI indices are showing signs of recovery, while the Federal Reserve remains in a rate-cutting cycle [2][3]. - The express delivery industry is experiencing a narrowing of price declines due to the ongoing "anti-involution" trend, with a notable improvement in air ticket prices and rising shipping rates in oil and bulk transport [1][2][3]. - The average price of express delivery per ticket in October 2025 was 7.48 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.00%, which is an improvement from the previous month's decline of 4.91% [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Two main investment themes are identified: 1. Opportunities in aviation and express delivery driven by the "anti-involution" trend and price recovery in the domestic market [2][6]. 2. Investment prospects in oil and bulk commodity supply chains during the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle [2][6]. - Recommended companies in the express delivery sector include Jitu Express, Yunda Holdings, and SF Express, while in aviation, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines are highlighted [6]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The express delivery sector's growth rate has slowed, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 16.10% from January to October 2025, and a single-digit growth in October [4]. - The average price of domestic air tickets in October 2025 was 809 yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, marking the best monthly performance of the year [3][4]. - In the oil transport sector, OPEC's average crude oil production from January to November was 27,484 thousand barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [5]. Group 4: Bulk Commodity Supply Chain - The bulk commodity supply chain is entering a replenishment cycle, with significant increases in iron ore shipments from Brazil and Australia, leading to a rise in the BDI freight index [5]. - Major commodity prices are showing signs of recovery, with companies like Xiamen Xiangyu reporting improved performance in the first three quarters [5].

Core Insights - Shanghai is prioritizing the optimization of its business environment, with a new annual conference scheduled for January 4, 2026, to expedite the implementation of initiatives aimed at improving the business climate [1] - The city has introduced eight versions of action plans since 2018, resulting in over 1,200 measures to enhance the business environment, leading to significant improvements in global rankings [1][3] - The upcoming 2026 Action Plan will focus on deeper, more specialized, and broader aspects of the business environment, including fair competition, industry ecology, and grassroots engagement [2][6][9] Group 1: Business Environment Optimization - Shanghai has achieved notable success in its business environment, with 22 out of 59 evaluation points reaching global best levels, surpassing cities like Singapore and New York [1] - The city has nearly 3 million registered enterprises, equating to 119 enterprises per 1,000 people, maintaining its position as the leader in the country [1] - The 2026 Action Plan will include 26 measures across four key areas: government services, market competition, industry ecology, and social governance [3][4] Group 2: Fair Competition and Intellectual Property Protection - A significant focus will be on enhancing fair competition, with measures to combat intellectual property infringement, as demonstrated by a recent high-profile case involving 1.1 billion yuan in damages [3][4] - The plan aims to refine existing measures, such as the "inspection code" system and regulations on profit-driven whistleblowing, to better protect enterprises' rights [4][5] Group 3: Industry Ecology - The concept of "industry ecology" is introduced as a standalone section in the 2026 Action Plan, emphasizing tailored support for different industries [6][7] - The plan will promote the establishment of specialized parks and communities to foster innovation and entrepreneurship, particularly in high-tech sectors [6][7] - A new mobile financing service platform, "Sui Shen Rong," will be launched to assist small and medium-sized enterprises with integrated policy support and funding options [8] Group 4: Grassroots Engagement - The "grassroots business" concept aims to address local business needs more effectively, with mechanisms in place for local governments to respond to enterprise demands [9][10] - The plan emphasizes collaboration with various grassroots entities, including business associations and educational institutions, to enhance communication and support for small and micro enterprises [10][11] - The focus on grassroots engagement reflects a shift in strategy to ensure that both large and small enterprises can thrive within the business ecosystem [11]

Core Insights - The bull market in 2025 has not benefited the company as expected, reflecting a lack of structural opportunities and strategic missteps [1][2][32] - The company acknowledges the need for continuous improvement and adaptation in investment strategies despite the cyclical nature of markets [1][2] Market Review - The global stock market in 2025 saw significant gains, with major indices in developed and emerging markets reaching historical highs, particularly in South Korea with a 76% annual increase [2][32] - The Chinese stock market also performed well, with both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experiencing double-digit growth, yet the company's relative performance was disappointing [2][32] - The technology sector, especially in computing power, was identified as a missed opportunity, contributing to lower overall portfolio returns [2][33] Historical Context - The company reflects on past market conditions, particularly the extreme differentiation seen in 2013-2015 and 2020-2021, which led to significant investment challenges [3][34][35] - In 2013, the company faced difficulties due to a lack of adjustment in investment logic amidst changing economic conditions, resulting in poor performance [3][34] - The 2020-2021 period saw a focus on high-growth sectors, which, despite being viewed as overvalued, still yielded positive returns due to strategic positioning in certain stocks [3][35] Strategic Insights - The company recognizes the need to prioritize corporate governance in weak-cycle assets, particularly in state-owned enterprises, which may have lower efficiency compared to private firms [6][37] - A strategy to differentiate between strong and weak cycle assets is proposed, emphasizing the importance of governance in investment decisions [6][38] Overseas Investment - The company has made initial strides in overseas investments, particularly in Japan and Southeast Asia, although it acknowledges the need for deeper understanding of these markets [8][39] - Currency fluctuations are highlighted as a significant risk in overseas investments, necessitating careful consideration as investment scales increase [8][39] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a potential systemic revaluation of undervalued stocks in 2026, driven by ongoing liquidity support [10][42] - The AI computing bubble is expected to burst, with a focus on application and edge computing remaining crucial for future investment strategies [14][46][48] - The company emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between short-term market trends and long-term value creation, particularly in the context of consumer spending and economic recovery [19][21][43]