Group 1 - The photovoltaic sector in the A-share market is experiencing a collective surge, with companies like GCL-Poly Energy and JA Solar seeing significant gains, while various photovoltaic ETFs have also increased by over 1% [1] - Despite a decline of over 15% in photovoltaic ETFs this year, there has been a net inflow of funds, with notable amounts flowing into specific ETFs such as Huatai-PB and Tianhong [1] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is focusing on "production limits to maintain prices," with expectations of a 10%-15% reduction in operating rates in Q3, alongside strict controls on "below-cost sales" [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities anticipates that the photovoltaic industry, as a representative of "anti-involution competition," will see policy support in the future, with a focus on the need for capacity clearance and technological advancements for a mid-to-long-term industry recovery [2] - Zhongyuan Securities highlights that by mid-2025, photovoltaic companies will face severe operational challenges due to excess manufacturing capacity and low product prices, leading to increased bankruptcies among small and medium enterprises [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of "capacity clearance" and "new technology iteration" as key themes for the industry, recommending attention to leading companies in the polysilicon and photovoltaic glass sectors [3]

Group 1 - The core theme of the recent meeting held by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association is "production limits to maintain prices," with expectations of a 10%-15% reduction in operating rates in the third quarter [1] - The photovoltaic 50 ETF (159864) has seen an increase of nearly 2% due to favorable catalysts [2] - Dongxing Securities indicates that the rush for photovoltaic installations will lead to a recovery in Q1 2025 performance, although the entire industry is still in a loss phase, and capacity clearance is ongoing [2] Group 2 - Industry self-discipline and technological innovation are deemed crucial for breaking the current deadlock, with leading companies potentially establishing a capacity planning coordination mechanism to avoid vicious competition [2] - New battery technology is improving mass production efficiency, and breakthroughs in silver-free technology are accelerating the upgrade of production lines [2] - With the improvement of self-discipline mechanisms and technological advancements, the photovoltaic industry is expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated capacity and optimize the supply structure [2]

南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年6月19日 夏莹莹（投资咨询证书：Z0016569 ） 余维函 （期货从业证号：F03144703） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅&多晶硅期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 日涨跌 | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | 日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 震荡区间7200-7700 | 28.0% | 0.09% | 84.4% | 0.4% | | 多晶硅主力合约 | 强压力位35000 | 24.45% | -0.27% | 57.01% | -0.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 工业硅&多晶硅风险管理策略建议 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品库存偏高，有存 | 为了防止存货减值，根据企业库存情况，做空期货来 锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | SI2509/P ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese photovoltaic (PV) industry is facing a critical supply-side reform, with expectations of production cuts and stricter policies to curb below-cost sales, aiming to improve industry profitability and stability [3][4][5]. Industry Summary - A significant decline was observed in the A-share market on June 19, with a total trading volume of 1.28 trillion yuan and over 4,600 stocks falling [1]. - The photovoltaic sector, particularly low-fee ETFs, experienced a downturn, with the leading ETF (516290) dropping by 1.49% [1][6]. - Major companies in the PV sector, such as 阳光电源 (Sungrow Power), 德业股份 (Deye), and 晶澳科技 (JA Solar), reported declines exceeding 3% in their stock prices [6]. Production and Policy Changes - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association held a meeting focusing on "production limits to maintain prices," indicating a projected reduction in operating rates by 10%-15% in Q3 [2][3]. - A third-party audit group will conduct comprehensive audits to identify evidence of below-cost sales, with various measures planned against non-compliant companies [2][3]. Technological Advancements - The industry is witnessing a push for supply-side reform, with leading companies advocating for market-driven consolidation and technological upgrades to phase out outdated capacities [4][5]. - New technologies, such as TOPCon and perovskite, are gaining attention, with several companies showcasing advancements in efficiency and production capabilities at the SNEC conference [5]. Market Outlook - The PV sector is expected to experience a fundamental recovery, with signs of a potential turning point in market sentiment as production cuts and technological advancements take effect [7]. - The low-fee photovoltaic ETF (516290) is highlighted as a favorable investment option, with management fees significantly lower than the market average [7].

5月26日--28日，碳酸锂期货主力合约LC2507已经连续三天盘中跌破6万元/吨关口，最低下探至5.95万 元/吨，报收6.04万元/吨。5月29日，碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘报58860/吨，这是自碳酸锂期货上市以来 收盘价首次跌破6万元/吨大关。现货方面，上海钢联（300226）数据显示，6月3日，电池级碳酸锂平均 报价已经跌至6.08万元/吨，市场呈现持续下行趋势。 价格持续下滑不仅给企业经营带来严峻挑战，也削弱了部分企业的投资热情。4月17日，芳源股份公 告，由于市场环境和公司经营发展战略变化，公司决定终止投资不超过30亿元的"电池级碳酸锂生产及 废旧磷酸铁锂电池综合利用项目"。 业内分析人士指出，今年以来，一方面，碳酸锂产量依旧维持在相对高位。另一方面，下游新能源汽车 市场增长速度仍未达预期，对碳酸锂的需求拉动作用有限。同时，电池及整车企业库存积压，使得其采 购碳酸锂的意愿低迷，导致碳酸锂市场供大于求的状况愈发明显，价格也因此受到持续下行压力。 产能出清缓慢 2024年以来，锂价下滑已导致不少开采成本较高的澳大利亚矿山陆续宣布减产停产。针对近期碳酸锂价 格下滑走势，光大期货研究所分析认为，市场聚焦点在 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The urea futures market has rebounded for three consecutive days, but further rebound faces many constraints. It is advisable to take a short - term bullish and long - term bearish approach [3]. - The A - share market is expected to continue to fluctuate, affected by factors such as the Israel - Iran conflict and the upcoming Lujiazui Financial Forum [7]. - The gold market remains bullish, and it is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy [11]. - The iron ore market should be viewed with a fluctuating perspective, considering supply, demand, and price support [14]. - The glass market should be regarded as fluctuating in the short term, pending the effects of real estate stimulus or major policy changes [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures - On June 17, the main contract of urea futures led the futures market with a nearly 4% increase, driven by changes in international geopolitical situations that altered export expectations [3]. - However, from the supply side, the supply - demand contradiction is not substantially alleviated, with daily production exceeding 200,000 tons and large inventory - removal pressure. In 2025, about 4 million tons of new production capacity will be added, and the oversupply pattern is hard to change [3]. - From the demand side, agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is shrinking. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has dropped to 37.13%, and that of melamine has decreased by 8.3%. As of June 15, enterprise inventory reached 142210 tons, far exceeding the equilibrium threshold of 80000 tons [3]. - Currently, the domestic daily urea production is about 205,600 tons, and the operating rate is about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is still slow, and the urea price continues to be weakly adjusted. When it reaches the previous support area, short - sellers should be vigilant against strong long - side rebounds [22]. A - share Market - The Israel - Iran conflict continues, and the upcoming Lujiazui Financial Forum is favorable for A - shares. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. - Today, the three major A - share indexes opened higher and closed lower, with a small - amplitude oscillating decline throughout the day and a rebound at the end of the session, finally closing with a doji star. The news is bearish [8]. Gold Market - Due to the Israel's raid on Iran, geopolitical risks have intensified. The overseas gold market is approaching a new high, and although Shanghai gold is relatively weak, it also follows the upward trend. The gold market remains bullish, and it is only a matter of time before a new high is reached. A low - buying strategy is more prudent [11]. Iron Ore Market - Supply has increased month - on - month, iron - water production has seasonally weakened, and port inventories have returned to the accumulation stage. The weak reality increases the risk of over - valuation of iron ore. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits and industrial repair status. Technically, the price tested the lower support level today, and the market should be viewed with a fluctuating perspective [14]. Glass Market - On the supply side, there is no major cold - repair situation due to losses, factory inventories are still at a high level, the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is not strong, and demand has not continued to increase significantly. Technically, it showed a narrow - range fluctuation today, and it should be regarded as fluctuating in the short term [18].

Group 1 - Wanan Power announced that its controlling shareholder, Wanan Capital, plans to increase its stake in the company by no less than 75 million yuan and no more than 150 million yuan within three months [1] - The planned share buyback reflects Wanan Capital's confidence in the company's future development and is expected to enhance stock stability and market confidence [1] - Investors are advised to monitor the implementation of the buyback plan and changes in the company's fundamentals for informed investment decisions [1] Group 2 - Linyang Energy's subsidiary won a bid for a grid-side energy storage project in Mauritius, with a total bid amount of approximately 1.79 billion yuan [2] - This project represents 2.66% of Linyang Energy's audited revenue for 2024 and is expected to positively impact the company's operations and performance in 2025 and beyond [2] - The successful bid demonstrates Linyang Energy's international competitiveness in the energy storage sector and supports its global strategy [2] Group 3 - GCL-Poly's co-CEO, Lan Tianshi, revealed plans to establish a company to clear silicon material capacity through acquisitions, utilizing a model of "direct investment + debt" [3] - This innovative approach aims to effectively integrate industry resources, improve capacity utilization efficiency, and promote industrial upgrades [3] - Lan Tianshi's proposal indicates GCL-Poly's proactive stance in fostering healthy industry development and hints at new trends in industry collaboration and capital operations [3]

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate futures price experienced fluctuations, initially rising to 62,100 yuan/ton on June 11 due to Zimbabwe's plan to ban lithium ore exports starting in 2027, but then fell again on June 12 as market fundamentals showed no production cuts, leading to continued oversupply pressure [1][7][8] - The production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase by 9.4% month-on-month in June, reaching 78,875 tons, driven by higher output from spodumene and recovery lithium, with an overall operating rate rising nearly 9 percentage points to 58% [2][8] - Despite the increase in production, the demand for lithium carbonate is expected to remain limited during the traditional off-season from June to August, with downstream purchasing primarily driven by immediate needs rather than stockpiling [2][10] Group 2: Electric Vehicle Sales and Impact - New energy vehicle sales in China have shown significant growth, with production and sales in the first five months of the year exceeding 10% year-on-year, indicating a stable upward trend in the automotive industry [3][5] - New energy vehicles accounted for 44% of total new car sales, with exports of new energy vehicles reaching 855,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 64.6% [3][5] Group 3: Supply Chain and Import Trends - Lithium ore imports have continued to grow, with April imports reaching 520,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18%, primarily sourced from Australia, Zimbabwe, Brazil, and Nigeria [6][8] - Zimbabwe's government announced a ban on lithium ore exports starting in January 2027 to promote local refining industries, which is not expected to cause immediate shortages in the lithium carbonate market due to ample global lithium resources [6][7] Group 4: Price Trends and Market Outlook - The lithium price has been on a downward trend since March, with a potential equilibrium price around 58,000 yuan/ton based on supply and demand dynamics, indicating that prices may have reached a bottom [8][9] - Current market pressures stem from falling mineral prices and limited demand during the off-season, with expectations of continued inventory accumulation until August [9][10]

光伏主产业自去年四季度进入自律减产阶段，通过减少供给阻止价格进一步下跌，降低企业利润亏损幅 度，缓和现金流持续流出的压力。自律减产保价在今年取得一定成效，主产业链大部分企业一季度净利 润环比增速转正。 但随着一季度光伏抢装潮结束，需求迅速萎缩，硅料、硅片等产品价格再度跌回减产保价之前的水平， 企业一度面临产能去化与成本售价倒挂的双重压力。 笔者统计，光伏主产业链共计约21家上市公司，18家企业一季度的扣非后归母净利润亏损，规模越大的 光伏制造商，亏损越严重。一体化龙头通威股份（600438.SH）亏损26.1亿元，"硅片双雄"TCL中环 （002129.SZ）、隆基绿能（601012.SH）均亏近20亿元，晶科能源（688223.SH）、晶澳科技 （002459.SZ）、天合光能（688599.SH）3家组件商亏逾10亿元。 尽管"反内卷"在过去一年多被频繁提及，但光伏产能出清效果仍不理想。 在比亚迪、吉利、长城等多家新能源车企高管发声后，"反内卷"已经成为新能源汽车行业发展的共识。 新能源汽车与光伏产业看似赛道不同，却有相似的发展轨迹。两个产业都经历过资本狂热追捧，在大规 模产能扩张后，面临产品跌价与产能出 ...

谈及当下光伏行业供需失衡的痛点，朱共山建议政企联动促出清，严控新增产能的同时，避免不合理的地方保护行为。天合光能董事长高纪凡认为，只有 全行业的大整合才能解决行业"内卷"。 经历了近两年的严重供需错配和全产业链的"价格鏖战"，"短期逐利、堆砌产能没有出路"已经成为行业（尤其头部企业）的共识。 如何解决"赔本赚吆喝"的行业痛点，促成 "反内卷"的执行和落地，也是当下的光伏行业需要直面的问题。第一财经记者注意到，6月10日，在2025年 SNEC光伏展开幕式上，产能出清路径和"反内卷"的议题也被多家光伏企业代表和行业专家频繁提及。 在开幕式现场，协鑫集团董事长朱共山最新表态称，"公司正与另一硅料龙头通威联手，在相关部委的关心下全力以赴加快行业供给侧改革，推动行业整 合产能去化。全行业上下游要迅速行动起来，把产能过剩的问题解决。" 朱共山认为，光伏行业低水平重复建设暂告一个段落。但是，从过剩出清到生态重构再到稳定发展，光伏还有一段蜕变之路要走。"预计今年下半年到明 年一季度是光伏供给侧改革的关键窗口期。" 在大会现场，针对当下光伏行业存在的上述问题，朱共山提出政企联动促出清的建议，以"市场化兼并重组+技术淘汰机制+ ...