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宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250515

Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 01:29

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The positive impact of China-US trade negotiations continued to ferment, and the economic cooperation agreement signed between Trump and the Saudi Crown Prince further boosted market risk appetite, pushing up oil prices. After the negotiation, the market digested the impact of tariffs on the commodity market and repaired the demand expectation of PX. The unplanned loss increment of PX was significant, and combined with the planned device maintenance, the supply of Asian PX tightened significantly. However, the recent failure of some PTA device maintenance to materialize and the unexpectedly high load operation of downstream polyester made the demand expectation of PX also exceed market expectations, further consolidating PX demand. From the medium-term supply and demand pattern of PX, it will still be in the rhythm of destocking in the next few months. On May 14, the PX CFR China price was $870 per ton. The general rise in the bulk chemical market, the low operation rate of PX was beneficial to the market, and individual buyers actively purchased. Both cost and supply supported the upward movement of PX, and the price recovery was obvious [2]. - The low operation rate of PX was beneficial to the market, PTA destocked, the spot basis strengthened, new downstream polyester production capacity was put into operation, and the rigid demand was good, so the PTA market rose. The new polyester production capacity operated stably and maintained a high operation rate, and had a good rigid demand for PTA. In the short term, the PTA spot price mainly followed the cost side. After the inventory of polyester factories was reduced at the end of last month, the operation load of polyester filament was basically stable at present, but the new production devices in the market needed to be followed up. Coupled with the inventory accumulation of most factories during the festival, the subsequent market supply might gradually become abundant. The operation of terminal looms was slowly recovering, and the downstream weaving factories had a low willingness to stock up in early May. It was expected that the downstream concentrated procurement cycle would be in the middle of this month. In general, there were still many PTA device maintenance, while the downstream polyester maintained a high operation rate. It was estimated that PTA would destock from May to June, the price center would fluctuate around the cost, and the short-term price would run strongly [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6,160 - 6,300 yuan per ton, up 200 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The prices of polyester raw materials and bottle chip futures fluctuated strongly. The supply side of bottle chips raised the quotation, but the downstream terminals had no chasing sentiment, and the market trading was cautious. Recently, the operation rate of the bottle chip industry was at a relatively high level within the year, and the market supply might gradually become abundant. The downstream terminals mainly consumed the previously stocked goods, and the purchasing enthusiasm was not high [2]. - The improvement of macro - sentiment drove the price recovery. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,874 yuan per ton (up 2.87%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.92 million lots; due to the reduction in supply and the push of cost, the 2509 contract closed at 6,880 yuan per ton (up 2.96%), with an intraday trading volume of 43,460 lots; PR followed the cost, and the 2507 contract closed at 6,200 yuan per ton (up 3.23%), with an intraday trading volume of 79,600 lots. In the overnight crude oil market, the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories last week and the accelerated increase in crude oil supply by OPEC and its减产 allies triggered investors' concerns about oversupply, and international oil prices fell for the first time in five trading days. The effect of sentiment was diminishing at the margin. It was expected that PX, PTA, and PR would fluctuate [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream** - On May 14, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $63.15 per barrel, down 0.82% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $66.09 per barrel, down 0.81% from the previous value; the spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan on May 13, 2025, was $575.50 per ton, up 1.14% from the previous value; the spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea on May 14, 2025, was $731.50 per ton, up 3.10% from the previous value [1]. - **PTA** - On May 14, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,874 yuan per ton, up 2.61% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,852 yuan per ton, up 2.41% from the previous value; the closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 5,050 yuan per ton, up 3.27% from the previous value; the settlement price was 5,010 yuan per ton, up 2.96% from the previous value; the domestic spot price of PTA was 4,933 yuan per ton, up 2.37% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of domestic refined terephthalic acid PTA was 5,100 yuan per ton, up 3.24% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of external refined terephthalic acid PTA on May 13, 2025, was $644 per ton, up 3.87% from the previous value; the near - far month spread was 158 yuan per ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the basis was 226 yuan per ton, an increase of 36 yuan [1]. - **PX** - On May 14, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,880 yuan per ton, up 2.56% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,862 yuan per ton, up 2.69% from the previous value; the closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 6,708 yuan per ton, up 2.69% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,708 yuan per ton, up 2.69% from the previous value; the domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,315 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous value; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene CFR Taiwan, China, was $871 per ton, up 2.83% from the previous value; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene FOB South Korea was $846 per ton, up 2.92% from the previous value; the PXN spread was $294.50 per ton, up 6.96% from the previous value; the PX - MX spread was $138.50 per ton, up 2.72% from the previous value; the basis was - 565 yuan per ton, a decrease of 172 yuan [1]. - **PR** - On May 14, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 6,200 yuan per ton, up 2.75% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,160 yuan per ton, up 2.56% from the previous value; the closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,980 yuan per ton, up 5.24% from the previous value; the settlement price was 5,936 yuan per ton, up 4.47% from the previous value; the market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 6,180 yuan per ton, up 2.83% from the previous value; the market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the South China market was 6,250 yuan per ton, up 3.14% from the previous value; the basis in the East China market was - 20 yuan per ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the basis in the South China market was 50 yuan per ton, an increase of 24 yuan [1]. - **Downstream** - On May 14, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,850 yuan per ton, up 1.14% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,200 yuan per ton, up 1.41% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,150 yuan per ton, up 2.88% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 7,150 yuan per ton, up 2.88% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,695 yuan per ton, up 3.00% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 6,060 yuan per ton, up 3.06% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 6,180 yuan per ton, up 2.83% from the previous value [2]. Operation and Sales Information - **Operation** - On May 14, 2025, the operation rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 73.32%, unchanged from the previous value; the load rate of the PTA industry chain in PTA factories was 74.41%, unchanged from the previous value; the load rate of the PTA industry chain in polyester factories was 91.34%, unchanged from the previous value; the load rate of the PTA industry chain in bottle - chip factories was 85.13%, unchanged from the previous value; the load rate of the PTA industry chain in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 64.27%, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - **Sales** - On May 14, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 52.00%, down 23 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 61.00%, up 4 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester chips was 93.00%, up 38 percentage points from the previous value [1]. Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest is planned to restart between May 15 and 20, 2025 [2].