银河证券表示，中美经贸和谈元首会晤达成重要共识，市场宏观预期与风险偏好有望改善，美联储在四 季度持续的降息与可能的停止缩表并开始扩表有望提升市场流动性，这均将有利于铜铝等工业金属大宗 商品价格上涨。而海外铜铝龙头企业事故频发对全球供应的扰动也将提升铜铝的价格弹性。2025Q4铜 铝行业业绩增速有望进一步提升。 在中美关税谈判达成日内瓦协议后，市场宏观预期改善、风险偏好提升，叠加美国就业市场出现恶化迹 象下市场对美联储在三季度重新开启降息的预期升温，以及国内"反内卷"的政策指引，共同推动有色金 属大宗商品价格稳步上行，使有色金属企业在三季度的盈利能力与业绩继续环比提升。且由于去年三季 度有色金属价格下跌形成的2024Q3有色金属行业业绩低基数的影响，使2025Q3A股有色金属行业业绩 同比增速加速上行。A股有色金属行业2025年前三季度营业收入同比增长10.02%，业绩同比增长 46.64%；A股有色金属行业2025Q3单季度营业收入同比增长16.57%，业绩同比增长52.08%。 智通财经APP获悉，银河证券发布研究报告称，国内外储能需求旺盛，以及进入2026年国内新能源汽车 购置税减免政策退坡或将引发年底抢 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Nasdaq 100 index futures surged by 1.5%, with major tech stocks experiencing significant pre-market gains, indicating a positive market sentiment driven by the resolution of the government shutdown crisis [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Major tech stocks such as Nvidia (NVDA.US) and AMD (AMD.US) rose over 3%, while Tesla (TSLA.US), Alphabet (GOOGL.US), and Oracle (ORCL.US) increased by more than 2% [1] - Meta Platforms (META.US) saw an increase of nearly 2%, and Microsoft (MSFT.US) and Amazon (AMZN.US) rose by over 1% [1] Group 2: Government Shutdown Resolution - The U.S. Senate reached an agreement to end the federal government shutdown, which is expected to have a direct impact on the economy [1] - President Trump indicated that the end of the shutdown is near, which analysts believe will lead to approximately $1 trillion in funds returning from the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) to the economy, injecting significant liquidity into the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Nasdaq 100 index futures surged by 1.5%, with major tech stocks experiencing significant pre-market gains, indicating a positive market sentiment driven by the resolution of the government shutdown crisis [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major tech stocks such as Nvidia (NVDA.US) and AMD (AMD.US) rose over 3%, while Tesla (TSLA.US), Alphabet (GOOGL.US), and Oracle (ORCL.US) increased by more than 2% [1]. - Meta Platforms (META.US) saw an increase of nearly 2%, and Microsoft (MSFT.US) and Amazon (AMZN.US) rose by over 1% [1]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The U.S. Senate reached an agreement to end the federal government shutdown, which is expected to inject approximately $1 trillion back into the economy from the Treasury General Account (TGA) [1]. - Analysts believe that the resolution of the shutdown crisis will lead to a significant increase in market liquidity [1].

Group 1 - The market is currently focused on two main events: the recently released CPI and PPI data, which catalyze the consumer sector, and the impending reopening of the U.S. federal government [1][2] - The end of the government shutdown is expected to restore risk appetite in the market, which is seen as a significant positive for global financial markets [5][4] - The shutdown had previously caused liquidity tightening as funds were drawn into the central treasury account, leading to reduced cash flow for banks and businesses [3][2] Group 2 - Following the news of the government reopening, both risk assets and safe-haven assets experienced collective gains, indicating a recovery in liquidity [6][8] - The consumer sector saw a notable rebound, with leading industries such as beauty care, food and beverage, and retail showing significant daily increases, while growth-related sectors like communication and electronics faced declines [10][11] - The Hang Seng Consumer Index recorded its largest single-day gain since 2025, driven by a resurgence in new consumption stocks [15][18] Group 3 - The southbound net purchases of Hong Kong stocks surpassed 5 trillion, marking a historical milestone, with over 1.3 trillion net purchases this year alone [21][24] - The low interest rate environment remains unchanged, with financing demand being the core focus rather than inflation [26][29] - Observations indicate that global investment strategies are being adjusted in response to the resolution of overseas risk events, with changes in fund limits reflecting market conditions [32][33]

Market Liquidity Overview - R007 decreased from 1.4923% to 1.4677%, a reduction of 2.46 basis points; DR007 fell from 1.4551% to 1.4130%, down 4.21 basis points. The spread between R007 and DR007 increased by 1.75 basis points [9][13] - The net inflow of funds this week was 7.831 billion, a decrease of 24.527 billion from the previous week. Fund supply was 16.023 billion, while fund demand was 8.192 billion. Specifically, fund supply decreased by 65.002 billion, with net financing purchases down by 21.016 billion and stock dividends down by 12.308 billion [13][16] Industry Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index rose this week, with the electric equipment and new energy sector leading with a weekly increase of 5.11%. Other sectors like steel and oil & petrochemicals also saw slight increases. Conversely, the pharmaceutical and computer sectors led the declines, with decreases of 2.36% and 2.08% respectively [18][21] - The electric equipment and new energy sector received the most net leveraged capital inflow, totaling 2.196 billion, while the electronic sector experienced a net outflow of 2.501 billion [21][24] Style Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most style indices rose this week, with both cyclical and stable styles leading with an increase of 1.85%. The consumer style was the only one to decline, down 0.70%. The growth style was the most active, accounting for 56.88% of the average daily trading volume [32][36] - The main funds in the style sectors were predominantly reduced, with the largest reduction in the growth style amounting to 10.957 billion, followed by the cyclical style with a reduction of 5.597 billion [33][36]

Government Shutdown Duration and Impact - As of November 9, the U.S. government has been shut down for 40 days, marking a historical record[2] - The shutdown is primarily due to political polarization, with both parties believing it benefits them[2] - It is expected that the government will remain closed for at least another 1-2 weeks, likely reopening before Thanksgiving (November 27)[3] Economic and Employment Effects - The shutdown has resulted in at least 670,000 federal employees being furloughed and approximately 730,000 working without pay[10] - If the shutdown continues until December 1, the total unpaid wages could reach approximately $21 billion[10] - The impact on GDP growth for Q4 2025 is projected to be a reduction of over 1 percentage point, with a rebound expected in Q1 2026[5] Data Release Delays - Key economic data for September and October, including non-farm payrolls and CPI, have been delayed due to the shutdown[4] - If the government reopens in 1-2 weeks, some data may be released shortly thereafter, but the timing remains uncertain[19] - October non-farm payroll data may be published alongside November data in early December[20] Market and Policy Implications - The shutdown has led to a rise in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance by $62.7 billion, which may tighten liquidity marginally[36] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates once in December 2025 and potentially 1-2 more times in June 2026[37] - The reopening of the government is anticipated to alleviate some liquidity pressures in the market[36]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates again before the end of Chairman Powell's term in May 2026, contrasting with market expectations for a rate cut in December [2] - The delay in the release of key economic data, such as the October Consumer Price Index (CPI), due to the government shutdown, complicates decision-making for the Federal Reserve [3] - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials reflect a more cautious approach, with a consensus that inflation has not fully returned to target levels, requiring clearer evidence for policy easing [4] Group 2 - The latest financial stability report from the Federal Reserve highlights rising concerns over "policy uncertainty" as a major risk factor, alongside high asset valuations and elevated leverage among some financial institutions [5] - The risk survey indicates that market sentiment regarding artificial intelligence-related fluctuations has gained attention, suggesting emerging technologies may impact asset price volatility [6] Group 3 - The U.S. market liquidity is under pressure due to increased Treasury bond issuance and a significant rise in the Treasury's general account balance, leading to tighter available liquidity and fluctuations in short-term interest rates [7] - Analysts warn that if liquidity pressures persist, there could be a risk of chain reactions in the short-term funding markets similar to past volatility periods [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive market reaction following the U.S. Senate's agreement to end the federal government shutdown, which has been a significant factor affecting liquidity in the market [1][3]. Market Reaction - Major markets responded positively to the news, with U.S. stock index futures rising across the board, European stock index futures also showing positive movement, and the Asia-Pacific markets opening strongly, with the South Korean index up over 2% and the Japanese index rising nearly 1% [6][1]. - Bitcoin surged past $106,000 and Ethereum exceeded $3,600, indicating a strong rebound in the cryptocurrency market [1][8]. Government Shutdown Details - The Senate's agreement includes funding for the government until January 30 of the following year and plans to vote on the Affordable Care Act in December. This agreement aims to prevent future shutdowns and ensures funding for food assistance programs until the fiscal year 2026 [3][4]. - The agreement does not extend the enhanced subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, a key demand from the Democrats, but it allows for a separate vote on this issue later [4]. Economic Impact - The government shutdown has reached a historical high of 40 days, significantly impacting liquidity and economic data. The delay in salary payments to federal employees has weakened consumer spending, which constitutes 80% of overall expenditure [9]. - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance has risen to $1 trillion due to ongoing financing without spending, contributing to tighter liquidity in the money market [9]. - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has dropped, with the preliminary November index falling to 50.3, indicating ongoing concerns about employment and inflation [9].

Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve has a significant probability of interest rate cuts within the year, with a 66.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut by December 2025, and a 33.1% chance of maintaining current rates [3]. Domestic Economic Indicators - In October, both export and import growth rates fell short of expectations, with exports (in USD) declining by 1.1% year-on-year, down from an 8.3% increase, while imports rose by 1.0%, down from a 7.4% increase [2]. - High-frequency indicators in transportation show a rebound in subway passenger volume [2]. - The industrial production index has shown improvement, with specific sectors like methanol, tires, and certain steel production seeing a rise, while soda ash has declined [2]. International Economic Context - Ongoing geopolitical tensions include Russia's response to potential U.S. nuclear tests and developments in the Ukraine conflict, as well as military considerations in the Middle East, such as the potential sale of F-35s to Saudi Arabia [3]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook remains a critical factor, with a notable probability of rate cuts by the end of 2025 [3]. Industry Investment Recommendations - Investment themes are categorized into three main directions: breakthroughs in Deepseek and AI technology, a "stronger gets stronger" market style during economic recovery, and the continued rise of undervalued dividends [4]. - In the early stages of a bull market, funds tend to favor a few high-growth sectors, while later stages see a focus on main themes, making it harder for new funds to achieve profits [4]. - Cyclical stocks are highlighted for their low valuations and high beta characteristics, which may attract additional capital as the economic fundamentals improve [4].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - China's industrial output for October is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, while retail sales are projected to grow by 3% [4][6] - Real estate development investment in China is anticipated to decline by 13.9% for the first ten months of the year [4][6] - The overall economic activity in China is showing signs of stabilization due to government policies aimed at growth [6][7] Group 2: U.S. Economic Data - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, compared to a previous expectation of 3% [4][8] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data is also anticipated to be released, with market expectations indicating a potential for a 0.2% month-on-month increase [8][9] Group 3: Corporate Earnings Reports - Major companies such as Tencent, JD.com, and Bilibili are set to release their earnings reports next week, with Tencent expected to see a revenue increase of approximately 14% year-on-year [4][14] - CoreWeave, Circle, and Cisco are among other companies expected to report earnings, with CoreWeave anticipated to continue its explosive growth [14] Group 4: Key Events - The G7 Foreign Ministers' meeting is scheduled for November 11-12 in Canada [12] - The eighth China International Import Expo concluded on November 10, showcasing international trade opportunities [13] - AMD's annual Analyst Day is set for November 11, where significant announcements regarding future growth and technology are expected [10]