1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Last week, the caustic soda futures stopped falling and stabilized, with a sharp rebound on Friday. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, and the operating rate of sample manufacturers will rise. The profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises is narrowing, and the support for spot prices is weak. The inventory in North China is rising, while that in East China is falling. In the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, there may be a price cut in the short - term [2]. - **PVC**: Last week, the PVC futures rebounded due to macro - warming, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to ease. Next week, the output is expected to increase as many enterprises finish maintenance. The downstream demand is limited, and the procurement enthusiasm is average. The cost provides bottom - support. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize in September - October [2]. Urea Industry The urea futures are weakly declining. The supply may increase, and the demand from the autumn fertilizer market and industry is weak. The export new orders are limited. If there is no export surge or early shutdown of gas - based plants, the price may fall below 1,550 yuan/ton [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak. In September, the supply may remain at a high level, and the demand support is weak. The price driving force is weak. The strategy for BZ2603 is to follow the styrene fluctuations [13]. - **Styrene**: The weekly supply - demand of styrene is also weak. The strategy is to be bearish on the absolute price rebound of EB11, and expand the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level, but the driving force is limited [13]. PX - PTA - MEG Industry - **PX**: The supply of PX may increase due to short - process capacity increase and postponed maintenance. The demand is affected by PTA maintenance. The price is under pressure, and the basis boost is limited [17]. - **PTA**: The processing fee of PTA is low, and new device production is postponed. The demand is in the peak season, but the basis and processing fee repair drive is insufficient. The absolute price follows the cost [17]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand of MEG is gradually weakening. In the short - term, the import is not high, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long - term, it will enter the inventory accumulation period in the fourth quarter [17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber supply is high, and the demand is limited during the peak season. The price has support at the low level, but the rebound drive is limited [17]. - **Bottle chips**: The bottle chip device restart and shutdown coexist. The downstream replenishment supports the price and processing fee, but the increase is limited [17]. Polyolefin Industry PP production has decreased due to losses in PDH and external propylene procurement routes, and the inventory has declined. PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the operating rate is rising. The upper - middle stream inventory has decreased. North American import offers are increasing. The inventory accumulation pressure of 01 contract is large, limiting the upside [22]. Methanol Industry The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian loading. The coastal inventory has reached a historical high, the market sentiment is poor, and the price is weak. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is weak. The overall valuation is neutral. The market is swinging between high inventory and overseas gas - limit expectations. Attention should be paid to the inventory turning point [30][32]. Crude Oil Industry Last week, oil prices fluctuated weakly. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the market focuses on the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the demand is weak. The short - term oil prices are under pressure. Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, with SC resistance at 505 - 510, Brent at 68 - 69, and WTI at 64 - 65. Arbitrage is recommended to be long - spread, and options are recommended to buy put options [40]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On September 19, compared with the previous day, the prices of some products such as SH2509, SH2601, V2509, and V2601 increased, while the basis and spreads of some products changed [2]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China ports increased, and the export profit increased significantly. The export profit of PVC decreased [2]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries decreased [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of some products such as liquid caustic soda in Shandong and PVC total social inventory changed [2]. Urea Industry - **Supply**: The daily and weekly production of urea, and the operating rate of production plants are provided. The supply may increase [7]. - **Demand**: The demand from the autumn fertilizer market and industry is weak, and the export new orders are limited [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of urea in factories and ports is provided [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, etc. decreased. The prices of pure benzene and styrene also decreased. The spreads and import profits changed [13]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased [13]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene - styrene chain changed [13]. PX - PTA - MEG Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, MX, etc. decreased. The prices of PX, PTA, and MEG also decreased. The spreads and basis changed [15][17]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Inventory**: No relevant content provided. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 decreased. The basis and spreads changed [22]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP changed [22]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and downstream industries changed [22]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MA2601 and MA2509 changed. The basis and regional spreads changed [30]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of methanol changed [30]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol changed [30]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil and Product Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC changed. The prices of refined oil products and their spreads also changed [38]. - **Market Analysis**: The oil prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalance and weakening geopolitical support [40].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - Last week, the caustic soda futures stopped falling and rebounded on Friday. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, and the operating rate of sample manufacturers will rise. The alumina price has been falling, squeezing the profit of domestic alumina enterprises and weakening the support for the spot price. In Shandong, due to the approaching National Day holiday, there may be a price cut in the short - term. [2] - Last week, PVC futures rebounded with the support of a warming macro - environment, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to resolve. Next week, the output is expected to increase as many enterprises finish maintenance. The downstream product operating rate has limited improvement, and the procurement enthusiasm is average. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize from September to October. [2] Urea Industry - The urea futures are in a weak downward trend. The supply is increasing rapidly, and it is expected to reach 210,000 tons in October. The demand is weak, with a short window for autumn fertilizer procurement, high finished - product inventory of compound fertilizers, and slow follow - up of export orders. Without variables such as increased exports or early shutdown of gas - based plants, the spot price may continue to decline, and the futures will continue to fall significantly only if the spot price breaks below 1,550 yuan/ton. [8] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak. In September, the supply may remain high as some plants restart or postpone maintenance. The demand is weak as most downstream products are in the red, some secondary - downstream inventories are high, and styrene plants plan to reduce production in September - October. The price driving force is weak. [10] - The situation of styrene is similar to that of pure benzene. The supply - demand is expected to be loose in September, and the price driving force is weak. [10] Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply has increased significantly due to delayed maintenance of some domestic plants, while the demand is weak as PTA processing fees are low, new PTA plants postpone commissioning, and many PTA plants plan to have maintenance. The PXN may be compressed in the fourth quarter, and the price driving force is weak. [14] - For PTA, the supply is expected to shrink, but the demand increase is limited, and the basis is not strongly supported. In the medium - term, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price follows the raw material. [14] - For ethylene glycol, the short - term supply - demand is turning weak. Although the inventory is expected to decrease in September, the terminal market is weak. In the long - term, the supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to new plant commissioning and seasonal demand decline. [14] - For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply is high, and the demand is limited during the peak season. The price is supported at the low level but lacks upward driving force. [14] - For bottle - grade polyester chips, the supply - demand is still loose. Although the price and processing fees are supported by pre - holiday replenishment, the processing fee has limited upward space. [14][15] Polyolefin Industry - PP production has decreased recently due to losses in PDH and external - propylene procurement routes, leading to more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline. PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the operating rate is rising. The inventory of the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week, and there are more import offers from North America. The 01 contract has a large inventory accumulation pressure, limiting the upward space. [20] Methanol Industry - The methanol market is trading high - inventory and fast loading in Iran. The coastal inventory has reached a record high, the market sentiment has worsened, and the price and basis have weakened slightly. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year, and although there is some unplanned maintenance recently, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September, and the inventory pattern in the inland is relatively healthy. The demand is weak due to the traditional off - season. The port is still receiving a large amount of goods, with significant inventory accumulation and weak trading. The overall valuation is neutral. The futures are oscillating between high - inventory reality, weak basis, and overseas gas - restriction expectations in the future. [45] Crude Oil Industry - Last week, oil prices were weakly oscillating. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the market has refocused on the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has eased concerns about secondary sanctions on China for purchasing Russian oil, reducing the geopolitical risk support for oil prices. The expectation of future supply surplus, combined with the refinery maintenance season and the unexpected increase in US distillate inventory, has put pressure on oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices are under pressure. [49] Summary by Directory Chlor - Alkali Industry Spot and Futures Prices - On September 19, compared with September 18, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and 50% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged. The price of East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 10 yuan/ton, with a 0.2% increase. [2] Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - From September 11 to September 18, the FOB price at East - China ports increased by 5 US dollars/ton, with a 1.3% increase, and the export profit increased by 217.6 yuan/ton, with a 3723.4% increase. The CFR price in Southeast Asia remained unchanged, and the CFR price in India decreased by 25 US dollars/ton, with a 3.3% decrease. [2] Supply - From September 12 to September 19, the operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 85.4%, and the operating rate of PVC decreased by 4 percentage points to 75.4%. [2] Demand - From September 12 to September 19, the operating rate of the alumina industry increased by 0.9 percentage points to 83.7%, and the operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry increased by 1.8 percentage points to 88.2%. [2] Inventory - From September 11 to September 18, the liquid caustic soda inventory in Shandong increased by 0.7 tons, with a 7.5% increase, and the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 0.4 tons, with a 1.2% decrease. [2] Urea Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - On September 17, compared with September 16, the 01 - contract price of urea decreased by 5 yuan/ton, with a 0.3% decrease, and the 05 - contract price decreased by 3 yuan/ton, with a 0.17% decrease. [5] Upstream Raw Materials - On September 17, compared with September 16, the price of动力煤 at the pithead in Yijinhuoluo Banner increased by 11 yuan/ton, with a 2.14% increase, and the price of动力煤 at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 6 yuan/ton, with a 0.87% increase. [5] Spot Market Prices - On September 17, compared with September 16, the price of small - particle urea in Guangdong increased by 10 yuan/ton, with a 0.56% increase, and the price of small - particle urea in Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton, with a 0.65% decrease. [5] Supply - Demand - On September 19, compared with September 18, the domestic daily urea output decreased by 0.02 tons, with a 0.11% decrease. From September 12 to September 19, the domestic weekly urea inventory increased by 32,600 tons, with a 2.88% increase, and the order days of domestic urea production enterprises decreased by 0.7 days, with a 10.17% decrease. [8] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 0.76 US dollars/barrel, with a 1.1% decrease, and the price of CFR China pure benzene decreased by 6 US dollars/ton, with a 0.8% decrease. [10] Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of styrene in East - China spot decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a 1.4% decrease, and the EB10 - EB11 spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton, with a 66.7% decrease. [10] Downstream Cash Flows - On September 19, compared with September 18, the cash flow of phenol increased by 28 yuan/ton, with an 8.6% increase, and the cash flow of aniline increased by 93 yuan/ton, with a 29.8% increase. [10] Inventory - From September 8 to September 15, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 10,000 tons, with a 6.9% decrease, and the styrene inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 17,500 tons, with a 9.9% decrease. [10] Operating Rate - From September 12 to September 19, the domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 78.4%, and the styrene operating rate decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 73.4%. [10] Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 0.76 US dollars/barrel, with a 1.1% decrease, and the price of CFR China PX decreased by 11 US dollars/ton, with a 1.3% decrease. [14] Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of POY150/48 decreased by 65 yuan/ton, with a 0.9% decrease, and the price of FDY150/96 decreased by 45 yuan/ton, with a 0.7% decrease. [14] PX - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 4 US dollars/ton, with a 3.9% decrease, and the PX - MX spread increased by 2 US dollars/ton, with a 1.4% increase. [14] PTA - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the PTA East - China spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton, with a 1.6% increase, and the TA01 - TA05 spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton, with a 0.8% decrease. [14] MEG - Related Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the MEG East - China spot price decreased by 11 yuan/ton, with a 0.3% decrease, and the MEG basis (01) decreased by 62 yuan/ton, with a 3.2% decrease. [14] Operating Rate - From September 12 to September 19, the PX operating rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 86.3%, and the PTA operating rate remained unchanged at 76.8%. [14] Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the L2601 closing price decreased by 19 yuan/ton, with a 0.26% decrease, and the PP2509 - 2601 spread increased by 9 yuan/ton, with a 180% increase. [20] Spot Market Prices - On September 19, compared with September 18, the price of East - China PP raffia decreased by 30 yuan/ton, with a 0.44% decrease, and the price of North - China LLDPE film decreased by 20 yuan/ton, with a 0.28% decrease. [20] Inventory - As of Wednesday, compared with the previous value, the PE enterprise inventory increased by 23,800 tons, with a 5.57% increase, and the PP enterprise inventory increased by 43,400 tons, with an 8.06% increase. [20] Operating Rate - As of Thursday, compared with the previous value, the PE device operating rate increased by 2.32 percentage points to 80.4%, and the PP device operating rate decreased by 1.93 percentage points to 74.9%. [20] Methanol Industry Prices and Spreads - On September 19, compared with September 18, the MA2601 closing price increased by 15 yuan/ton, with a 0.64% increase, and the MA91 spread decreased by 28 yuan/ton, with a 215.38% decrease. [45] Inventory - As of Wednesday, compared with the previous value, the methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.21%, with a 0.61% decrease, and the methanol port inventory increased by 7,400 tons, with a 0.48% increase. [45] Operating Rate - As of Thursday, compared with the previous value, the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate decreased by 4.22 percentage points to 68%, and the downstream external - MTO device operating rate increased by 6.02 percentage points to 75.08%. [45] Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - On September 22, compared with September 19, the Brent price increased by 0.17 US dollars/barrel, with a 0.25% increase, and the SC price decreased by 6.3 yuan/barrel, with a 1.27% decrease. [49] Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - On September 22, compared with September 19, the price of NYM RBOB increased by 0.56 cents/gallon, with a 0.28% increase, and the price of ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.75 US dollars/ton, with a 0.11% decrease. [49] Refined Oil Crack Spreads - On September 22, compared with September 19, the US gasoline crack spread decreased by 1 US dollars/barrel, with a 4.73% decrease, and the European gasoline crack spread decreased by 0.48 US dollars/barrel, with a 2.44% decrease. [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: In the fourth quarter, PX supply - demand is expected to weaken, and PXN may be compressed. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. PX11 can be treated as fluctuating between 6600 - 6900 [2]. - PTA: New device commissioning is postponed, and some device maintenance plans are announced, which boosts PTA in the short - term. In the medium - term, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the absolute price follows raw materials. TA can be treated as fluctuating between 4600 - 4800, and TA1 - 5 can be rolled in reverse arbitrage [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. In September, it is expected to be good, but in the fourth quarter, it will enter the inventory accumulation period. EG can be observed unilaterally, and EG1 - 5 can be in reverse arbitrage [2]. - Short Fiber: The short - term supply - demand is weak. The short - fiber price has support at low levels but weak rebound drive, and the rhythm follows raw materials [2]. - Bottle Chip: In September, supply increases slightly, demand may decline, and inventory is expected to increase slowly. PR follows the cost side, and the processing fee has limited upside space [2]. Urea Industry The urea futures are running weakly due to increasing supply and lack of demand growth. The short - term futures are expected to run weakly [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: After a rebound, it retraces. The supply may decline due to maintenance, and the demand support is limited. The spot price may stabilize, and the decline space of the futures price is limited [12]. - PVC: After a rebound, it retraces. The supply is expected to decrease due to maintenance, and the demand shows a marginal improvement. The cost provides bottom support. It can be short - sold at high prices [12]. Methanol Industry The mainland supply is at a high level, and the inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports the price. The demand is weak, and the port inventory is accumulating. The overall valuation is neutral. The market sways between high inventory and overseas gas - restriction expectations, and the inventory inflection point should be followed [22]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply may be higher than expected, and demand is weak. The short - term price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors. BZ2603 follows styrene to fluctuate [26]. - Styrene: Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand support is average. The port inventory is falling but still high. EB10 can be bought at low levels, and the spread between EB11 and BZ11 can be widened at low levels [26]. Crude Oil Industry The overnight oil price fluctuates in a range. The tight refined oil market supports the price, but the macro - economic slowdown restricts the upside. The oil price may fluctuate in a range in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, and look for opportunities to widen the spread on the option side [28]. Polyolefin Industry For PP, the profit is suppressed, there are many unplanned maintenance, and the inventory decreases. For PE, the maintenance is high, the basis rises, and the inventory is reduced. The demand has few new orders, and the market shows "supply decrease and demand increase" [33]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 0.8%, WTI crude oil (October) decreased by 0.7%, CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.6%, etc. [2]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price decreased by 0.4%, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged, etc. [2]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX decreased, PX spot price (RMB) decreased, and PX basis (11) decreased by 39.0% [2]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East China spot price increased by 0.2%, TA futures 2601 decreased by 1.0% [2]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG East China spot price decreased by 0.3%, EG futures 2601 decreased by 0.7% [2]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 2.5%, China PX operating rate increased by 4.9%, etc. [2]. Urea Industry - **Fertilizer Market**: The prices of some fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and sulfur decreased slightly, while others remained unchanged [6]. - **Supply - demand Overview**: Domestic urea daily output increased by 1.82%, coal - based urea daily output increased by 1.97%, etc. [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% price decreased by 2.4%, East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 0.4% [12]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: FOB East China port caustic soda increased by 1.3%, and the export profit increased by 120.2% [12]. - **Supply (Chlor - alkali Operating Rate and Industry Profit)**: PVC overall operating rate increased by 4.2%, and the profit of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 12.8% [12]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operating rate increased by 1.5%, and Longzhong sample pipe operating rate increased by 12.3% [12]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda Shandong inventory increased by 17.0%, and PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 1.8% [12]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closing price decreased by 1.26%, and the spread between MA9 and MA1 changed by - 360.00% [22]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61%, and methanol port inventory increased by 0.48% [22]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.12%, and downstream externally - purchased MTO device operating rate increased by 8.72% [22]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.5%, and pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 4.5% [26]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene East China spot price decreased by 1.1%, and EB futures 2510 decreased by 1.1% [26]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 6.9%, and styrene Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 9.9% [26]. - **Industrial Chain Operating Rates**: Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 1.4%, and domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.1% [26]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.75%, WTI decreased by 0.05%, and the spread between Brent M1 and M3 increased by 4.55% [28]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.13%, NYM ULSD increased by 0.02%, and ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.39% [28]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: US gasoline crack spread decreased by 0.51%, European gasoline crack spread decreased by 2.44% [28]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: L2601 closing price decreased by 0.79%, PP2601 closing price decreased by 0.80% [33]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57%, PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% [33]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.97%, PP device operating rate decreased by 2.5% [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - For pure benzene, domestic attention is on the commissioning progress of Yulong Cracking Unit 2. There will be concentrated new capacity additions from August to September. Domestic existing unit operations are still stable, while the rhythm of imports has slowed down. Downstream pick - up has reached its peak and declined but remains at a decent level, leading to a decline in port inventory. Downstream operations of pure benzene are recovering from the bottom, but overall operations are still low, and short - term maintenance of styrene has dragged down the rigid demand for pure benzene [3]. - For styrene, downstream pick - up during the peak season remains at a relatively high level, and port inventory is waiting to be further reduced. Currently, the absolute level of port inventory is still high. There will be short - term maintenance in the first and middle of September, leading to a decline in operations, and port inventory has started to decline. However, operations may recover in the second half of September. Among styrene's downstream products, the operations of ABS and PS have slightly declined, EPS operations are decent, and ABS has a large inventory pressure [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Relevant figures include the pure benzene main contract basis and futures price, pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread, EB main contract trend & basis, EB main contract basis, and styrene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [9][14][20] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB Korea pure benzene and CFR Japan naphtha, non - integrated styrene production profits, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and FOB Korea pure benzene, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, the difference between FOB Rotterdam pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, pure benzene import profits, styrene import profits, the difference between FOB US Gulf styrene and CFR China styrene, and the difference between FOB Rotterdam styrene and CFR China styrene [22][25][33][40] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures are pure benzene inventory at East China ports, pure benzene operating rate, styrene inventory at East China ports, styrene operating rate, styrene commercial inventory in East China, and styrene factory inventory [42][44][47] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream Products - Relevant figures involve EPS operating rate and production profit, PS operating rate and production profit, and ABS operating rate and production profit [53][55][58] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream Products - Relevant figures include caprolactam operating rate and production profit, phenol - acetone operating rate and production profit, aniline operating rate and production profit, adipic acid operating rate and production profit, PA6 regular spinning bright production profit, nylon filament production profit, bisphenol A production profit, PC production profit, epoxy resin E - 51 production profit, pure MDI production profit, and polymer MDI production profit [63][65][74][86] Strategies - Unilateral: None [4] - Basis and Inter - Period: Go for a positive spread arbitrage when the EB2510 - EB2511 spread is low [4] - Cross - Product: Temporarily go for widening the EB2510 - BZ2603 spread when it is low [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; For inter - period, after the restart of the main PDH, pay attention to the PL01 - 02 short - spread strategy when the spread is high; For inter - variety, none [3] Core View - On the supply side, the 650,000 - ton naphtha cracking new device of Yulong Petrochemical is planned to be put into production, and the PDH of Hebei Haiwei restarts. The propylene start - up rate increases month - on - month, and the supply is expected to recover. On the demand side, the spread between PP powder and propylene continues to shrink, and the profit is difficult to repair. Some downstream procurement enthusiasm weakens due to cost pressure, but the pre - holiday replenishment demand may drive short - term demand support. On the cost side, the geopolitical situation is still volatile, the oil price is under pressure, the price of external propane is adjusted, and the cost support is weakened [2] Summary by Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - The figures involved are the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the North China basis of propylene, the 01 - 05 contract of propylene, the East China market price of propylene, and the Shandong market price of propylene [6][9][11] II. Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The figures involved are the difference between China CFR of propylene and Japan CFR of naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, propylene PDH production gross profit, propylene PDH capacity utilization rate, propylene MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][23][30] III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The figures involved are the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, the difference between Japan CFR and China CFR, the difference between Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][35] IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - up Rate - The figures involved are PP powder production profit, PP powder start - up rate, propylene oxide production profit, propylene oxide start - up rate, n - butanol production profit, n - butanol capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit, octanol capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit, acrylic acid capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit, acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate, phenol - acetone production profit, and phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate [41][43][54] V. Propylene Inventory - The figures involved are propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [4] Core View - Recently, the cost - end oil price has rebounded, and the external propane price has risen strongly. With the support of macro - sentiment, polyolefins have rebounded slightly with fluctuations. Some upstream petrochemical plants have shut down for maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly. There is an expectation of new capacity from ExxonMobil, and Daxie Petrochemical is continuously increasing production, so the supply is still under pressure. The downstream demand is in the "Golden September" seasonal improvement stage, with the overall downstream factory operating rate rising slightly. However, the downstream mainly maintains rigid procurement, and the demand fulfillment rate is still slow. PP production profit has shrunk significantly, and the cost - end support is strong [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7,245 yuan/ton (+11), PP main contract at 6,982 yuan/ton (+12). LL North China spot was 7,200 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot was 7,170 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot was 6,780 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 45 yuan/ton (-11), LL East China basis was - 75 yuan/ton (-11), and PP East China basis was - 202 yuan/ton (-12) [2] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 78.0% (-2.5%), PP operating rate was 76.8% (-3.1%) [2] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 170.9 yuan/ton (-70.8), PP oil - based production profit was - 459.1 yuan/ton (-70.8), and PDH - based PP production profit was - 303.0 yuan/ton (-12.1) [2] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 92.1 yuan/ton (+10.2), PP import profit was - 482.1 yuan/ton (-9.8), and PP export profit was 29.1 US dollars/ton (+1.2) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 24.1% (+3.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 51.3% (+0.8%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 43.1% (+0.4%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.6% (+0.1%) [2] Market Analysis - Cost - end factors and macro - sentiment have driven polyolefins to rebound slightly. Supply is under pressure due to potential new capacity and production increases. Downstream demand is in a seasonal improvement stage, but the demand fulfillment is slow, and PP cost - end support is strong [3] Strategy - Unilateral strategy is neutral; inter - period strategy is 01 - 05 reverse spread; no inter - variety strategy [4]

Industry Overview Upstream - Glass prices have declined [1] - Egg prices have significantly rebounded [1] Midstream - PX and PTA operating rates have remained stable at a medium level [2] - Coal consumption by power plants has increased [2] Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third-tier cities have rebounded [2] - The number of domestic flights has increased [2] Key Events Production Industry - On the 17th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology publicly solicited opinions from the society on the mandatory national standard "Safety Requirements for Intelligent Connected Vehicle Combined Driving Assistance Systems". The draft for comments has established a safety baseline for intelligent connected vehicle products, requiring the system to be activated only under its designed operating conditions. For different functions such as single-lane, multi-lane, and pilot assistance, comprehensive safety technical requirements such as human-machine interaction, functional safety and expected functional safety, information safety, and data recording have been set, constructing a "triple safety guarantee" [1] Service Industry - The Ministry of Finance released the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation from January to August 2025, showing that the stamp duty revenue was 284.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%. Among them, the securities transaction stamp duty revenue was 118.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.7%. According to the data previously released by the Ministry of Finance, the securities transaction stamp duty revenue from January to July 2025 was 93.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.5%. This means that the securities transaction stamp duty in August this year was 25.1 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 66.23% compared to 15.1 billion yuan in July and a year-on-year increase of 225.97% compared to August 2024 [1] Key Data Price Index | Industry Name | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Price | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 2294.3 | -0.68% | | Agriculture | Spot price: Egg | H | Yuan/kg | 9/16 | 7.9 | 11.63% | | Agriculture | Spot price: Palm oil | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 9516.0 | -0.04% | | Agriculture | Spot price: Cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 15299.8 | -0.23% | | Agriculture | Average wholesale price: Pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 9/16 | 19.9 | 0.10% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price: Copper | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 81196.7 | 1.64% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price: Zinc | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 22218.0 | 0.22% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price: Aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 20960.0 | 1.29% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price: Nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 123750.0 | 1.63% | | Non-ferrous metals | Spot price: Aluminum | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 17031.3 | 1.49% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price: Rebar | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 3148.0 | -0.17% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price: Iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 807.9 | 0.97% | | Ferrous metals | Spot price: Wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 3352.5 | 1.06% | | Others | Spot price: Glass | H | Yuan/square meter | 9/16 | 14.0 | -1.75% | | Others | Spot price: Natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 15166.7 | -0.05% | | Others | China Plastic City Price Index | H | Point | 9/16 | 793.6 | -0.54% | | Energy | Spot price: WTI crude oil | H | US dollars/barrel | 9/16 | 63.3 | 1.67% | | Energy | Spot price: Brent crude oil | H | US dollars/barrel | 9/16 | 67.4 | 2.15% | | Energy | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 3876.0 | -0.56% | | Energy | Coal price: Coal | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 776.0 | -0.26% | | Chemical | Spot price: PTA | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 4633.8 | -0.21% | | Chemical | Spot price: Polyethylene | H | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 7378.3 | -0.18% | | Chemical | Spot price: Urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 1665.0 | -1.55% | | Chemical | Spot price: Soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 9/16 | 1262.5 | 0.00% | | Real estate | Cement price index: National | H | Point | 9/16 | 131.5 | 0.72% | | Real estate | Building materials composite index | H | Point | 9/16 | | 0.84% | | Real estate | Concrete price index: National index | H | Point | 9/16 | 92.0 | -0.72% | [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The demand recovery of ethylene glycol is facing challenges, and it is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term. Currently, ethylene glycol is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The cost side restricts the price from falling sharply, but there is no new cost support. The demand side lacks incremental boost, and the high inventory suppresses market sentiment. The short - term price may continue to oscillate at a low level, and if the demand fails to substantially improve, the lower support may be tested [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Day - to - Day Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: On September 12, the price of the ethylene glycol main contract oscillated downward to 4,272 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/0.7% from the previous day. The East China spot price also fell to 4,380 yuan/ton (-25 yuan), but the basis widened by 30 yuan to 138 yuan/ton. The inter - delivery spread showed an intensified contango, with the 5 - 9 spread widening negatively to - 89 yuan/ton, indicating deepening concerns about future supply [2] - **持仓与成交**: The trading volume of the main contract remained around 134,000 lots, while the open interest increased by 8,245 lots to 317,000 lots, suggesting intensified long - short game [2] - **供给端**: The total ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 71.24%. The operating rates of oil - based and coal - based plants were flat at 74.6% and 66.74% respectively. The coal - based profit continued to be deeply in the red at 368 yuan/ton, with no further expansion of losses but lack of repair momentum [2] - **需求端**: The load of polyester factories was 89.42%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43%, both remaining flat for more than two weeks. Due to the off - season pressure in the terminal textile industry, the downstream replenishment demand was weak and could not effectively drive the raw materials [3] - **库存端**: The inventory at the East China main port increased by 59,000 tons to 485,700 tons in a single week. The inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 180,000 tons. Although the weekly arrival volume decreased by 39.7% to 101,700 tons, the port inventory accumulation reflected that the source digestion speed lagged far behind the arrival rhythm, highlighting the inventory pressure [3] - **震荡偏弱运行**: Ethylene glycol is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The coal - based loss restricts the price from falling sharply, but the fluctuations of crude oil and naphtha have not provided new cost support for oil - based profits. The polyester and loom loads are stable but lack incremental boost, and the high - level inventory suppresses market sentiment. The short - term price may continue to oscillate at a low level [3] Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **期货与现货价格**: The main contract price of MEG futures was 4,272 yuan/ton on September 12, down 30 yuan (-0.7%) from the previous day. The East China spot price was 4,380 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan (-0.57%) [4] - **价差情况**: The MEG basis widened by 30 yuan to 138 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 1 yuan to - 47 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 31 yuan to - 89 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 30 yuan to 136 yuan/ton [4] - **利润情况**: The coal - based profit remained at - 368 yuan/ton, with no change [4] - **开工负荷**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate was 71.2%, and the coal - based and oil - based operating rates were 66.7% and 74.6% respectively, all remaining unchanged. The polyester factory load was 89.4%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load was 63.4%, also unchanged [4] - **库存与到港量**: The East China main port inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 486,000 tons, and the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 52,000 tons to 180,000 tons, a surge of 40.62%. The arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons, a decrease of 39.72% [4] Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On September 12, the East China US - dollar market followed the domestic market to weaken. In the morning, the negotiation price of October shipments was in the range of 512 - 515 US dollars/ton, and in the afternoon, that of near - month shipments was in the range of 514 - 517 US dollars/ton, with no reported transactions [5] - On September 12, the mainstream market price fell, but the ethylene glycol price in the South China market had reached a low level, and the quotations of holders remained stable. The market negotiation atmosphere was cold, with the current price around 4,460 yuan/ton for delivery [5] - On September 12, due to concerns about oversupply, the international crude oil price declined, the cost - side support weakened, and the spot basis was weak. The current negotiation price in East China was around 4,370 yuan/ton [5] - On September 12, the spot quotation in the Shaanxi ethylene glycol market was lowered, with the average market price around 3,970 yuan/ton for self - pick - up [5] Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The decrease in the main contract price and the increase in the basis may indicate that the spot is more resistant to decline or the market has a weak future expectation [22] - The increase in open interest and the significant change in the 5 - 9 spread may reflect the bearish sentiment towards the far - month contract [22] - The stable supply - side operating rate and the unchanged demand - side load, combined with the inventory accumulation, suggest weak demand and difficult de - stocking [23] - Given the high inventory pressure, weak demand, and certain cost - side support, the ethylene glycol price may continue to be weak and may even decline further [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - The current core contradiction in the polyolefin market is not prominent. In the PE market, the current maintenance remains high, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively limited. In the PP market, propane is strong, PDH losses intensify, and short - term unplanned maintenance increases. However, after the new device is put into production in early September, the pressure in East China increases, driving the basis to weaken rapidly, and market transactions are dull [23]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The supply of pure benzene in September is expected to be more relaxed than expected due to the maintenance of a reforming device in East China, and the weakening demand support will limit the price drive. For styrene, the overall start - up of downstream 3S has rebounded this week, and the port inventory has fallen from a high level. There is an expectation of improvement in supply and demand in the future, but the rebound space is limited due to high port inventory [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda market has stabilized slightly in the past two days, and the supply is expected to decline next week. The demand is expected to weaken in the future, but the inventory pressure of caustic soda enterprises is not large, and the spot price may remain firm in the short term. The PVC market has stopped falling and stabilized recently, but the overall pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse, and there is no obvious sign of improvement in demand [30]. Polyester Industry - PX supply is gradually increasing to a relatively high level, and the supply - demand expectation in September is relatively loose, but the medium - term supply - demand is still expected to be tight. PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September, but the basis and processing fees have limited repair drivers. Ethylene glycol supply is strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - fiber supply - demand is still weak in the short term. Bottle - chip supply - demand may be balanced in September, and inventory may increase slightly [33]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fell due to concerns about supply surplus overwhelming the premium brought by geopolitical risks. In the short term, oil prices are likely to run weakly, and it is recommended to take a short - side approach [38]. Urea Industry - The urea futures price is running weakly due to the dual pressure of increased supply and weak demand. The domestic urea daily output has rebounded, while agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is limited [42]. Methanol Industry - The methanol supply is expected to increase in September as domestic maintenance devices return and foreign start - up reaches a seasonal high. The demand from traditional downstream industries remains weak, and the port inventory has increased significantly, with weak basis performance and prominent pressure [44]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all decreased, with decreases of 0.24%, 0.43%, 0.13%, and 0.71% respectively. The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased by 28.00% and 42.55% respectively [23]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: PE and PP inventories showed different trends last week, with PE de - stocking and PP stocking. The current maintenance of PE remains high, and short - term supply pressure is limited. For PP, propane is strong, PDH losses intensify, and short - term unplanned maintenance increases, but new devices will increase pressure after being put into production in September [23]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR China pure benzene, and styrene in East China all changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 1.7%, and the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.3% [26]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.4%, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 10.2%. The supply of pure benzene in September is expected to decrease, and the demand support is weakening. For styrene, there is an expectation of improvement in supply and demand in the future [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% remained unchanged, the price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 0.2%, and the price of East China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged [31]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories decreased by 7.8%, and the total social inventory of PVC increased by 2.1%. The supply of caustic soda is expected to decline next week, and the demand for PVC remains weak [31]. Polyester Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and various polyester products changed. For example, the price of POY150/48 increased by 0.5%, and the price of FDY150/96 decreased by 0.5% [34]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The supply of PX is gradually increasing, and the supply - demand in September is expected to be relatively loose. The supply - demand of PTA in September is expected to be tight, but the basis and processing fees have limited repair drivers. Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a short - term supply - demand balance but may face oversupply in the fourth quarter [34]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Change**: On September 12th compared with September 11th, the prices of Brent, WTI, and various refined oil products decreased. For example, the price of Brent decreased by 1.66%, and the price of NYM RBOB decreased by 0.51% [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of crude oil is expected to be in a record - high surplus next year, and the increase in Saudi Arabia's export quota to China confirms the supply pressure. The increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States has raised concerns about economic and demand slowdown [38]. Urea Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing price of the methanol main contract decreased by 0.83%, and the prices of various urea futures contracts and spreads also changed [42]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The domestic urea daily output has rebounded to 18.44 tons, and the start - up rate has increased month - on - month. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial rigid - demand procurement is limited. Although export containerization provides some support, the decline in Indian consumption weakens the positive effect [42]. Methanol Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased by 0.83% and 2.30% respectively, and the MA91 spread decreased by 22.54% [44]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.43%, and the port inventory increased by 8.59%. The domestic maintenance devices are expected to return in early September, and the foreign start - up has reached a seasonal high, while the traditional downstream demand remains weak [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report maintains the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, believing that the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan/barrel, or 0.58%, to 486.20 yuan/barrel [1] - **Inventory Data**: US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.94 million barrels to 424.65 million barrels, a 0.94% increase; SPR increased by 0.51 million barrels to 405.22 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 1.46 million barrels to 220.00 million barrels, a 0.67% increase; diesel inventories increased by 4.72 million barrels to 120.64 million barrels, a 4.07% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.30 million barrels to 21.21 million barrels, a 6.51% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.47 million barrels to 43.27 million barrels, a 1.11% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 10, the 01 - contract rose 9 yuan/ton to 2407 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 112 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production has further increased, coal prices have slightly declined, and corporate profits are generally good. Overseas production has returned to a year - on - year high, and there is still import pressure. The port MTO load has slightly increased, and profits have continued to improve, but traditional demand is still weak. It is expected that the decline space is limited, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spreads [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 10, the 01 - contract fell 14 yuan/ton to 1669 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 9 [6] - **Analysis**: As the spot price weakens, corporate profits have further declined, and the production start - up rate has significantly decreased, reducing supply pressure. However, demand is weak, and port inventories are rising. It is expected that the price will move within a range, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated weakly, following the trend of industrial products such as coking coal. Thai standard mixed rubber was priced at 15000 (0) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1845 (- 5) dollars, and STR20 mixed was at 1855 (+ 5) dollars [9][12] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that rubber production in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, may be limited, the seasonality of rubber usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro - expectations are uncertain, demand is in the off - season, and the positive impact of supply may be less than expected. It is recommended to take a long - term bullish view, but a neutral view in the short - term, either waiting and watching or making quick trades [10][12] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 10 yuan to 4857 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 207 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 302 (+ 6) yuan/ton [14] - **Analysis**: The comprehensive corporate profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, and high production. Domestic demand is at a five - year low, and export expectations have weakened after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position opportunities at high prices, but also beware of short - term upward movements [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, while the futures price rose, and the basis weakened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward correction space [16] - **Analysis**: The cost - side pure benzene production is in a neutral and volatile state, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the production start - up rate of styrene has continued to rise. The port inventory has continued to decline significantly. In the long - term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the styrene price may rebound after the inventory decline inflection point [16][17] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 7226 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7220 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 6 yuan/ton, strengthening by 3 yuan/ton [19] - **Analysis**: There is only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory is declining from a high level. The seasonal peak season may be coming, and the demand - side agricultural film raw material procurement has started. In the long - term, the price may fluctuate upward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 6948 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6955 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 7 yuan/ton, strengthening by 1 yuan/ton [20] - **Analysis**: There is still 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, with high supply pressure. The downstream production start - up rate has rebounded seasonally from a low level. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [20] Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 44 yuan to 6770 yuan, the PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 838 dollars, and the basis was 94 yuan (- 22) [22] - **Analysis**: The PX production load is at a high level, and although the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance in the short - term, the PX inventory accumulation is not large due to new PTA device production. The terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, and the valuation has limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following crude oil at low prices during the peak season [22][23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 20 yuan to 4698 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4625 yuan, and the basis was - 63 yuan (0) [24] - **Analysis**: The supply - side unexpected maintenance has increased, and the inventory accumulation pattern has turned into de - stocking, but the processing fee is suppressed. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory pressure is low, and the downstream and terminal production start - up rates have improved, but the terminal recovery speed is slow. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX at low prices [24] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 3 yuan to 4319 yuan, the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4439 yuan, and the basis was 117 yuan (- 15) [25] - **Analysis**: Overseas and domestic maintenance devices have gradually started, and the production start - up rate has reached a high level. The domestic supply is high. In the short - term, the port inventory is expected to be low due to less arrival volume, but it will turn into inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The valuation is currently relatively high year - on - year, and there is downward pressure in the medium - term [25]