Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent surge in gold prices, reaching a historic high of $4600 per ounce, is driven by a combination of macroeconomic cycles, policy expectations, and a concentration of global risk premiums [1][9] - The gold and silver markets are experiencing a strong correlation, indicating a systemic demand for the entire precious metals sector, with silver showing greater volatility and resilience during liquidity easing periods [6] - Geopolitical risks have significantly contributed to the rise in gold prices, as the ongoing uncertainties have shifted demand for gold from tactical to structural, reinforcing its role as a safe-haven asset [4] Group 2 - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll report showed a mixed picture, with job additions below expectations, yet the unemployment rate slightly decreased, leading to a neutral market reaction regarding monetary policy [3] - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve are impacting the credibility of the dollar, with historical trends indicating that doubts about monetary policy independence often lead to increased demand for gold as a hedge against uncertainty [5] - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of gradual allocation in precious metals rather than attempting to time the market perfectly, as the real risk lies in prolonged inaction rather than short-term price fluctuations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impressive performance of the gold market from the perspective of the end of 2025, highlighting the evolving role of gold as both a strategic asset for central banks and a key focus for investors [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Gold supply has remained stable, averaging between 1,200 tons and 1,300 tons per quarter in recent years, with total supply in 2025 projected to be around 1,313.10 tons [3][4]. - Demand for gold has been driven by high levels of jewelry manufacturing, increasing investment in gold bars and coins, and significant purchases by central banks, which have reached levels not seen since 2010 [3][4]. Investment Performance - The annual returns of gold ETFs have shown a significant upward trend, with returns projected to reach 62.75% in 2025, following 27.45% in 2024 and 16.34% in 2023 [2][3]. - The volatility of gold ETFs has been relatively lower compared to the market index, with annualized volatility for gold ETFs at 18.61% in 2025, compared to 17.21% for the market index [11]. Price Dynamics - Long-term gold price movements are influenced by factors such as inflation hedging and monetary policy, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, which challenges the credibility of the dollar [9]. - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are affected by geopolitical risks and speculative trading, with significant events such as U.S. policy changes and regional conflicts impacting market sentiment [10]. Investment Considerations - For individual investors, the gold market in 2025 presents both opportunities and risks, with gold serving as a hedge against inflation over a long-term horizon, while short-term volatility necessitates careful monitoring of central bank activities and geopolitical risks [12].

Core Viewpoint - The investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by the U.S. Department of Justice marks a significant legal challenge, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][9]. Group 1: Investigation and Legal Challenges - The U.S. Department of Justice has issued a subpoena to the Federal Reserve regarding Powell's testimony about the renovation of the Fed's headquarters, threatening criminal charges [1]. - The investigation focuses on whether Powell committed perjury regarding the renovation project and has been described as a new wave of legal pressure against him [1][3]. - Powell has characterized the DOJ's actions as a pretext to exert pressure on him regarding interest rate decisions, asserting his commitment to fulfill his duties with integrity [1][4]. Group 2: Renovation Project Details - The renovation project of the Federal Reserve building, which began during President Biden's administration, was initially budgeted at approximately $1.9 billion but has escalated to nearly $2.5 billion due to rising material costs, exceeding the budget by about 32% [2]. - The Trump administration had previously criticized Powell for the renovation project, alleging significant violations and labeling it as a "lavish renovation" [2][3]. Group 3: Political Pressure and Interest Rates - Since January 2025, tensions between the White House and Powell have increased, with President Trump repeatedly criticizing Powell for not lowering interest rates significantly [4][6]. - Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed's recent interest rate cuts, indicating that he desires a more substantial reduction in rates [6][9]. Group 4: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - The ongoing criminal investigation poses a threat to the Federal Reserve's independence in setting interest rates, raising concerns about potential political interference in monetary policy [9]. - Analysts warn that any successful intervention in monetary policy could lead to a loss of confidence in U.S. dollar assets, increased long-term borrowing costs, and accelerated de-dollarization globally [9].

Core Viewpoint - The criminal investigation against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is perceived as political pressure from the Trump administration due to disagreements over interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation is led by a Trump-appointed prosecutor and is seen as a response to Powell's decisions on interest rates, which were made based on public interest rather than Trump's preferences [1][3]. - Powell confirmed that the Department of Justice issued a subpoena related to his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee regarding a multi-year renovation project of the Federal Reserve building [3]. - Powell emphasized the importance of maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence from political pressure and coercion [3][5]. Group 2: Political Context - Since taking office in January 2025, Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates as he desired [4][7]. - The White House has referred the investigation to the Justice Department, and Trump has expressed intentions to remove Powell after his term ends in May 2026 [5][6]. - Key potential successors to Powell include former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and current National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [6]. Group 3: Market Implications - The investigation is expected to create structural bearish pressure on the US dollar, leading to a potential loss of trust in its credibility [9]. - Conversely, gold is anticipated to benefit significantly from this situation, experiencing a dual boost from the depreciation of the dollar and increased market uncertainty [11][12]. - The current market narrative has shifted from focusing on economic and interest rate factors to concerns about institutional integrity and creditworthiness [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates in January, driven by tightening short-term liquidity in the U.S. and high repo rates exceeding benchmark rates, which will compel the Fed to expand its balance sheet and cut rates [1] - The speaker, Hong Hao, suggests that the long-term inflation expectations in the U.S. are unlikely to decline, and if the Fed persists in lowering rates while inflation expectations remain high, it could weaken the dollar's credibility and drive up precious metal prices [1] - Gold is currently viewed as fairly valued around 4500, and in the new credit system, it serves as an "anchor" for all valuations, with silver also expected to have further upside potential [1] Group 2 - In a recent Bloomberg interview, Hong Hao expressed optimism about asset performance in a liquidity-rich environment, indicating a preference for all asset classes [2] - He previously identified 4000 points as a potential support level for the market, and as of the beginning of the year, the market has quickly risen to 4100 points [2]

Core Viewpoint - The post-World War II dollar-dominated international monetary system is facing multiple challenges, with the erosion of dollar credit, but its hegemonic status is unlikely to be shaken in the short term. Meanwhile, the internationalization of the renminbi is progressing steadily, with its settlement share expected to exceed 10%, positioning it among the top three global payment currencies, thereby creating favorable conditions for economic development [1][4]. Group 1: Dollar's Challenges - The recent decline in the dollar index is attributed to multiple factors, including a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the impact of renminbi internationalization on some dollar payment shares [4][5]. - The U.S. government's high debt levels are a key factor undermining dollar credit, with the political cycle exacerbating fiscal deficit pressures due to election candidates promising tax cuts and increased welfare [4][5]. Group 2: Future of the Dollar - Despite challenges, the dollar is expected to remain the leading international reserve and payment currency for many years, although its share in the global monetary system may gradually decline [5]. - The introduction of stablecoins is seen as a way for the dollar to maintain its dominance in international trade settlements, a trend that may continue in ten-year cycles [5]. Group 3: Renminbi's Role - China is actively promoting the internationalization of the renminbi to reduce excessive reliance on dollar settlements in international trade [5]. - The renminbi's settlement share in global trade is projected to exceed 10%, placing it among the top three payment currencies, particularly in trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative and in transactions of major commodities like oil [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is expected to appreciate against the US dollar for the first time in five years by 2025, primarily due to the decline in US dollar credit, although it remains weak against other currencies [2][4]. Group 1: Yen Exchange Rate Trends - As of December 30, 2025, the exchange rate is 1 USD to 155.97 JPY, showing an appreciation of approximately 1.90 JPY (1% increase) compared to the same time in 2024 [4]. - The yen's appreciation against the dollar is attributed to the depreciation of the dollar, while it continues to depreciate against other major currencies, indicating that a true shift to a yen appreciation phase is not yet realized [8][10]. - The yen reached its highest point of the year at 139.80 JPY per USD on April 22, 2025, following the announcement of a reciprocal tariff policy by the US government [6]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Implications - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate by 0.5% in 2025, reaching the highest level in approximately 27 years, which narrows the long-term interest rate gap between Japan and the US [10]. - Despite the interest rate hike, the yen has not transitioned to an appreciation phase, as the government's active fiscal policies may undermine the effects of the Bank of Japan's rate increase [10][11]. - Predictions suggest that by December 2026, the yen may depreciate again to around 160 JPY per USD, depending on the trajectory of US monetary policy [10][11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, precious metal prices rebounded strongly. Gold and silver prices in both domestic and international markets increased, with silver showing a more significant increase. Trump's policies have impacted the US dollar's credit, making international gold prices likely to rise and difficult to fall. The Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing and tariff rulings may have short - term negative impacts on silver prices, but in the medium - term, silver prices still have upward drivers. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff rebalancing nodes and conduct long - buying operations at low prices after the short - term negative factors end. The reference operating ranges for the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver are 970 - 1050 yuan/gram and 16870 - 21000 yuan/kilogram respectively [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Performance**: This week, precious metal prices had a strong - leaning rebound. SHFE gold rose 2.96% to 1006.48 yuan/gram, SHFE silver rose 9.70% to 18731.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 4.07% to 4518.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 10.41% to 79.79 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was reported at 4.18%, and the US dollar index rose 0.69% to 99.14 [11]. - **Gold Price Driver**: Trump's multi - dimensional policies have further impacted the US dollar's credit, driving the strong performance of gold prices. The total holdings of major overseas gold ETFs increased from 2352.2 tons on January 2nd to 2355.2 tons on January 9th. International gold prices are generally expected to be prone to rise and difficult to fall [11]. - **Silver Price Analysis**: The volatility of silver prices has significantly increased. The 2026 BCOM index rebalancing will be gradually adjusted in batches starting from January 8th and completed around January 15th. The potential reduction of long positions in silver by commodity funds or ETFs tracking the BCOM index and the possible outflow of silver spot from the US if the silver tariff is exempted are short - term negative factors for silver prices. However, in the medium - term, the large holdings of silver ETFs and the expected increase in silver imports in India in the first quarter will support silver prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of gold and silver prices around the rebalancing nodes and conduct long - buying operations at low prices after the short - term negative factors end [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The technical graph of SHFE gold shows a trend of upward breakthrough at the end of the triangular convergence, and further price increases are expected. The technical graph of SHFE silver is extremely strong, having entered the accelerated upward phase. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 20000 yuan/kilogram above. If it is effectively broken, the upward trend can continue [13][15]. 2. Market Review - **Price and Position Changes**: This week, domestic and international gold and silver prices rose. The total positions of SHFE gold increased by 1.87% to 31.86 million lots, and the total positions of COMEX gold increased by 1.3% to 48.81 million lots as of the latest reporting period. The total positions of SHFE silver increased by 6.19% to 67.79 million lots, and the total positions of COMEX silver decreased by 2.64% to 15.32 million lots as of the latest reporting period. As of the latest reporting period on January 6th, the net long positions of COMEX gold managed funds decreased by 2827 lots to 123,200 lots, and the net positions of COMEX silver managed funds increased by 1814 lots to 15,822 lots [28][30][34][36]. - **ETF Holdings**: The total holdings of gold ETFs within the Reuters statistical scope were 2355.2 tons as of January 9th, and the total holdings of overseas silver ETFs were 29294.9 tons [39]. 3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **US Treasury Yield**: The report presents the spreads between 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds and the yields of short - term US Treasury bonds [50][51]. - **Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations**: It shows the US federal funds rate, overnight reverse repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal interest rate, real interest rate, and inflation expectations [53][54]. - **Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet**: The weekly changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet are detailed, including the changes in assets and liabilities. The total assets decreased by 670.16 billion US dollars [55]. 4. Macroeconomic Data - **CPI and PCE**: In November, the year - on - year CPI in the US was 2.7%, significantly lower than the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 3.0% in September. The year - on - year core CPI was 2.6%, lower than the expected previous value of 3.0% in September [62]. - **Employment Situation**: As of the week ending on January 3rd, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 208,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [65]. - **PMI and PPI**: In December, the ISM manufacturing PMI in the US was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.3 and the previous value of 48.2. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4, higher than the expected 52.3 and the previous value of 52.6 [68]. - **New Housing Data**: In October, the annualized total number of new housing starts in the US was 1.246 million, lower than the expected 1.325 million and the previous value of 1.291 million. The annualized total number of building permits was 1.412 million, higher than the expected 1.35 million [71]. 5. Precious Metal Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The report shows the basis between gold TD and SHFE gold [74]. - **Silver Basis**: It presents the basis between silver TD and SHFE silver [77]. - **Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Gold and Silver**: The domestic - foreign spreads of gold and silver are shown [80]. 6. Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventories**: The report shows the silver inventories of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, COMEX, and LBMA [87][90][91]. - **Gold Inventories**: It presents the gold inventories of COMEX and LBMA [92][94].

刘煜辉表示，从目前来看，美国难以完成这一使命，核心原因是美国缺乏强大的制造业基础。按照当前 美国的经济结构，其越来越成为纯粹的技术蓝图输出者——马斯克、黄仁勋等企业家能够描绘出宏大、 具有前瞻性的技术蓝图，给出顶尖的设计图纸，但在落地能力与完备产业生态的构建上，美国已力不从 心。这一历史使命，最终落在了东方大国（中国）的肩上。马斯克在访谈中也承认："每次我拿出 PPT，最先提出构想，但最终落地完成的都是中国人。"这一次的AI革命也不例外。因为AI进入下半场 后，核心是要在后端建立强大、完备的产业生态，让投入的巨额资本形成循环闭环——这正是"端侧 AI"的核心使命。 "2025年表现最好的大类资产是黄金——全年涨幅达70%，从2600美元/盎司飙升至4500美元/盎司，这一 涨幅令我们从事宏观经济研究的学者深感震惊。"1月9日，中国首席经济学家论坛理事刘煜辉在2026年 中国首席经济学家论坛年会上指出。 刘煜辉表示，黄金快速上涨反映的是，全球资本对美元基础信用，即美元、美债构成的法币体系，以及 这套"老钱体系"的信任度出现了严重危机，或隐含着深层次风险。黄金未来的走势，关键取决于美元信 用支撑的核心问题能否找到 ...

Group 1 - The best-performing asset class in 2025 is gold, with an annual increase of 70%, rising from $2,600/ounce to $4,500/ounce, which has shocked macroeconomic researchers [1] - The rapid rise in gold prices reflects a severe crisis of confidence in the dollar-based credit system, indicating deep-seated risks [1] - The future trajectory of gold will depend on whether solutions can be found for the core issues supporting dollar credit, and the current outlook is not optimistic [1] Group 2 - The focus of the global economy is on the dollar, which is now heavily tied to the "full bet on AI" narrative, transitioning into a new phase [1] - The U.S. is struggling to fulfill its role in the AI revolution due to a lack of a strong manufacturing base, becoming primarily a technology blueprint exporter [1] - The responsibility for realizing the AI industrial revolution now falls on major Eastern countries, particularly China, as they are better positioned to implement these technological advancements [1]