哈马克指出，通胀水平仍然偏高，并且在过去两年多时间里基本处于横盘状态。她认为，今年通胀维持 在接近3%的风险依然存在，而这正是过去两年的主要特征。她强调，在看到价格明显、持续回落的证 据之前，难以支持进一步宽松政策。相比"微调"利率，她更愿意在评估去年秋季三次降息效果以及经济 增长表现时，"选择耐心、宁可慢一点"。 美联储今年新增的两位具有投票权的官员周二相继表态称，出于对通胀前景的担忧，当前更倾向于维持 利率不变，继续观察经济和物价走势。 克利夫兰联储主席贝丝.哈马克在俄亥俄州哥伦布举行的俄亥俄银行家联盟经济峰会上表示，她认为目 前的货币政策处在一个"合适的位置"，可以暂时按兵不动，以评估未来数据，并判断政策是否以及如何 需要进一步调整。她直言，根据自己的预测，联储可能会在相当一段时间内维持利率不变。 在就业方面，哈马克表示，美国劳动力市场似乎已经趋于稳定。她指出，失业率目前为4.4%，与去年9 月的水平相近，显示求职者与岗位空缺大致平衡。初请失业救济人数仍处于低位，虽然企业发布的大规 模裁员公告与历史均值相当，但部分公司确实已宣布裁员计划。 在她看来，目前联邦基金利率大致处于"中性"附近，即并未对经济活动 ...

2月10日，在本周开启的交易时段中，贵金属市场多头情绪显著回升，黄金与白银在周一午盘呈现出强 劲的上涨态势。OEXN表示，尽管目前全球地缘政治格局中并未出现极度尖锐的摩擦点，但多项国际事 务正处于阴燃状态，这种不确定性随时可能激化，进而推动避险资金重新涌入贵金属避风港。此外，美 元指数的弱势运行与原油价格的稳步抬升，也从成本端和计价端为双金属提供了上行助力。 从市场情绪与持仓数据来看，前期黄金市场的剧烈波动被部分官员视为典型的"投机性喷发"后的修正。 OEXN认为，1月下旬金银价格在高位戛然而止，主要是由于过度投机、宏观局势动荡以及市场对美联 储政策独立性的深度担忧所致。CFTC披露的最新Fact Sheet显示，在截至2月3日的报告周内，货币基金 经理大幅削减了黄金期货的看涨押注，净多头头寸减少23%至93438手，创下15周以来的最低水平。这 种持仓结构的显著调整，表明在经历了十多年来最严重的一次暴跌后，大型机构对于后市的布局显得更 加审慎。 本周宏观议程异常拥挤，由于此前部分政府职能停摆导致数据发布顺延，1月非农就业报告与消费者价 格指数（CPI）将在本周相继登场。经济学家普遍预计，1月非农就业人数仅增 ...

美国联邦储备委员会在1月货币政策会议上决定维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变，符合市场普遍预期。会议发布的利率点阵图显示，联邦公开市场委员会成 员对2026年利率路径的判断存在明显分歧：7位官员认为年内不应降息，8位支持至少降息两次，中值预测显示2026年或仅降息一次。 这一政策指引与期货市场预期存在差异。根据利率互换合约定价，交易员仍押注2026年将出现两次降息。这种分歧反映出市场对美国经济前景及通胀走势的 判断尚未形成共识。 人事层面，白宫已提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主席，接替将于5月任期届满的鲍威尔。沃什曾在2006年至2011年间担任美联储理事，其政 策立场被市场解读为相对审慎。这一提名被视为在保持央行独立性与回应白宫政策诉求之间寻求平衡。 经济数据方面，原定于2月6日发布的1月非农就业报告因联邦政府部分停摆而推迟至2月11日公布。市场一致预期新增非农就业人口约7万人，失业率维持在 4.4%附近。值得注意的是，彭博经济研究警告称，受统计方法调整等因素影响，实际数据可能意外疲软至1.5万人左右。 若就业数据显著偏离预期，可能强化市场对美联储政策转向时点的重新评估。当前环境下，劳动力市场状况、核 ...

美国总统特朗普和美联储现任主席鲍威尔之间的矛盾不断激化。据美国福克斯新闻网当地时间9日报 道，美国总统特朗普在接受该媒体采访时表示，在他的首个任期内，他在美联储主席人选决策上犯了错 误。 "我犯了个错误，他（鲍威尔）只是个备选，如果你要说的话。"特朗普说，"我犯了个错误，因为我的 财政部长非常非常想要他（任职），你知道，我对他的感觉不太好，但有时候会听别人的意见。那是个 错误，真是个大错误。" 美国福克 斯新闻网当地时间9日发布对特朗普（左）的采访视频。 图源：福克斯新闻网视频截图 特朗普随即谈到了他近日提名的美联储下任主席人选凯文·沃什，并称他认为沃什会很出色。 鲍威尔在特朗普首个总统任期内被提名为美联储主席，于2018年2月上任，后在拜登政府时期获得提名 连任，其任期将于今年5月15日结束。特朗普多次因美联储货币政策公开批评鲍威尔，并威胁解除鲍威 尔职务。 1月9日，美国司法部向美联储送达传票，威胁对鲍威尔2025年6月在参议院银行委员会就美联储办公楼 翻新项目作证一事提起刑事诉讼。鲍威尔随后发表声明说，美国联邦检察官对其相关指控都是"借口"， 直言遭调查是因为美联储"没有遵从总统意愿"来设定利率。1月2 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Director of the U.S. National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, indicated that U.S. job growth is expected to gradually decline in the coming months due to slowing population growth, aligning with current high GDP growth [2] - The upcoming January employment report is anticipated to show an addition of 69,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.4% [2] - BMO Capital Markets' Chief U.S. Economist, Scott Anderson, warned that this year's annual benchmark revisions will have a greater impact than in previous years, as the labor market is on the "knife's edge" between net job growth and losses [2] Group 2: Labor Market Insights - The labor market last year was characterized by "low hiring, low layoffs," but the upcoming revisions may reveal a more severe slowdown in hiring, potentially altering the Federal Reserve's assessment of the employment situation [3] - Recent data supports the view that job growth may have been overestimated, with January layoffs reaching a record high for the same period since the Great Recession, and December job openings falling to the lowest level since 2020 [3] Group 3: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price opened at 1118.41 yuan per gram, down 6.18 yuan or 0.55% from the previous trading day, indicating a downward trend [1] - The gold price reached a high of 1127.77 yuan per gram and a low of 1108.13 yuan per gram during the trading session [1] - The bullish momentum in the gold market remains strong, with any pullback seen as a buying opportunity, as indicated by the price action and technical analysis [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-02-10 ⾼位震荡中修复，配置资⾦回补⽀撑价 格 贵⾦属在前期剧烈波动后出现修复性反弹，⻩⾦重返关键整数位附近，⽩ 银同步回升但弹性更⼤。短期交易逻辑由单边趋势转向⾼波动下的结构性 再平衡，配置与对冲资⾦回补对价格形成⽀撑，宏观与政策不确定性仍是 核⼼背景。 黄金观点：高位震荡中企稳修复，中期多头逻辑未被破坏。 逻辑：前期去杠杆与情绪踩踏结束后，黄金在关键价位附近获得配置 盘承接。官方需求延续，对价格波动的容忍度较高，压缩了下行空 间。海外方面，市场继续围绕美国就业与通胀数据交易，美联储政策 路径与独立性讨论反复，对实际利率与美元形成扰动，利好黄金的防 御与配置属性。 展望：在宏观数据未形成一致指向前，黄金更可能维持高位宽幅震 荡，回调阶段关注配置资金承接力度，中期仍受官方购金与美元信用 逻辑支撑。 展望：短期随黄金震荡偏强运行，但需警惕快速拉升后的技术性回 吐，中期仍取决于贵金属整体配置需求与宏观风险定价。 风险提示：特朗普政策变化；美联储货币政策变化；地缘冲突变化。 白银观点：波动显著放大，跟随黄金修复但节奏更快。 ...

基本面方面，国内春节临近，终端普遍放假，锌下游企业开工率明显下滑。上周镀锌企业周度开工环比 降7.49个百分点至38.6%；压铸锌合金企业周度开工环比降3.94个百分点至42.4%；氧化锌企业周度开工 环比降8.16个百分点至50.37%。当前市场现货交投清淡，消费情绪低迷，对锌价形成明显制约。不过， 受其他有色金属走强带动，且炼厂春节期间或有检修，预计春节期间锌锭累库幅度约2万吨。 对于锌价走势，前期价格涨速过快、幅度较大，沪锌盘面开启降波调整，但结构性矛盾依旧存在，沪伦 比走弱，不排除出口窗口再度打开，外盘偏强对内盘形成有力支撑，预计今日现锌涨跌幅度有限。 【ccmn.cn摘要】多空博弈但美指弱势支撑锌价，隔夜伦锌微跌0.03%；国内下游企业开工率明显下降， 现货交投萎靡，对锌价构成明显掣肘，但有色走强带动，今现锌或涨跌有限。 【ccmn.cn锌期货市场】隔夜伦锌偏弱震荡，尾盘跌幅震荡收窄，开盘报3371美元/吨，高点报3387美 元，低点报3326.5美元，尾盘收于3382美元，跌1美元，跌幅0.03%；成交量7361手减少1925手，持仓量 229354手减少711手。晚间沪锌开盘跳水，盘面维持偏弱运 ...

客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 作者： 新能源有色金属组 相关品种：沪金、沪银 宏观面上看，美国1月挑战者裁员数量飙升至10.84万人，新增招聘岗位仅5300多个，均创17年来同期最 差。去年12月职位空缺数量大幅下降至654万，为2020年以来最低。上周初请失业金人数则意外大增2.2 万至23.1万。美国2月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值录得57.3，创六个月来最高水平。与此同时，1年 期通胀预期降至3.5%，为一年来的最低水平。弱势的就业数据或将强化美联储在货币政策上的偏鸽表 态，整体看利多贵金属的宏观环境未发生改变。 此外，2月7日，央行公布数据显示，1月末黄金储备为7419万盎司，较上月末增加4万盎司。这是自2024 年11月重启增持后，央行连续第15个月增加黄金储备。 近期贵金属价格波动率显著升高，与美股等风险资产的正向相关性凸显。近期多次出现价格大幅下挫的 情况，主要催化或集中在美股riskoff情绪下的恐慌性抛售，由于贵金属前期价格上涨斜率过于陡峭，流 动性恐慌背景下易出现价格大幅下挫。但整体看多贵金属的逻辑及宏观环境未发生变化，故目前对于操 作而言，贵金属仍然建 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - The overall sentiment in the market is relatively warm in the short - term. The prices of some metals are expected to show different trends, such as copper and aluminum may rise, while others like lead and zinc have complex influencing factors and their future trends need further observation. [5][7] - For different metals, specific strategies are proposed, including reference price ranges and trading suggestions like waiting and seeing or taking long - position at low prices. [5][7][12] Group 3: Summary by Metal Category Copper - **Market Data**: The LME copper 3M closed up 0.96% to $13,185/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,450 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 1,025 to 184,300 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory increased slightly. The Shanghai spot copper had a premium of 35 yuan/ton over the futures, while the Guangdong spot had a discount of 105 yuan/ton. The spot import loss was about 700 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,090 yuan/ton. [3][4] - **Strategy**: Due to factors such as a strong US stock market, plans for key mineral reserves, and a better - than - expected US consumer confidence index, the short - term sentiment is positive. Although the new Fed Chairman's monetary policy is slightly hawkish, the interest - rate cut trend remains. The copper mine supply is tight, but the domestic refined copper supply is growing strongly. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 101,000 - 104,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $13,000 - 13,400/ton. [5] Aluminum - **Market Data**: The LME aluminum closed up 0.64% to $3,130/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,625 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract's open interest increased by 16,000 to 667,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 9,000 to 165,000 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, and the aluminum rod processing fee declined. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 to 489,000 tons. [6] - **Strategy**: The domestic aluminum inventory is accumulating, and the downstream demand is weak in the off - season. However, the LME aluminum inventory is relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium is high, providing strong support for the aluminum price. With the stabilization of the US stock market and precious metals, the aluminum price is expected to rise. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 23,300 - 23,900 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,080 - 3,160/ton. [7] Lead - **Market Data**: The Shanghai lead index closed up 0.29% to 16,602 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S rose by 9.5 to $1,958.5/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,425 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was at par. The domestic lead ingot social inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 49,900 tons on February 9th compared to February 5th. [8] - **Strategy**: The lead ore's visible inventory has slightly decreased but is still higher than in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains low. The scrap battery inventory is rising. The smelter's operating rate has seasonally declined. The lead ingot social inventory is accumulating, and the domestic industrial situation is weak. Whether the lead price can stabilize depends on the downstream battery enterprises' restocking willingness after the Spring Festival. [9] Zinc - **Market Data**: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.34% to 24,567 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose by 76 to $3,361.5/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,660 yuan/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased by 9,800 tons to 128,100 tons on February 9th compared to February 5th. [10] - **Strategy**: The zinc ore's visible inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory has started to accumulate, and the downstream enterprises' operating performance is average. The finished - product inventory of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises has risen rapidly. Although the domestic zinc industry is weak, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment, and strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise with the non - ferrous metal sector. [11] Tin - **Market Data**: On February 9th, the tin price slightly decreased, and the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 384,180 yuan/ton, down 7.61%. The supply is difficult to increase significantly in the short - term due to factors such as high - level but stagnant smelter operating rates in Yunnan and low production in Jiangxi due to scrap tin shortages. The demand has not shown strong improvement, and the downstream pre - holiday restocking willingness is not obvious. [12] - **Strategy**: The short - term precious metal price has shown signs of stabilization, and the tin price may rebound. Although the tin price has a long - term upward trend, in the short - term, there is pressure for a sharp rise under the background of a marginal relaxation in supply - demand and a steady increase in inventory. It is recommended to wait and see, with the domestic main contract reference range of 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton and the overseas LME tin reference range of $46,000 - 50,000/ton. [12] Nickel - **Market Data**: On February 9th, the nickel price slightly declined, and the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 134,463 yuan/ton, down 2.03%. The spot market's brand premiums and discounts were stable, and the nickel ore price was stable. The nickel - iron price fluctuated upward. [13] - **Strategy**: After the second decline of precious metals and risk assets, there is a short - term demand for rebound, but the nickel price still faces fundamental pressure. It is expected to fluctuate widely, with the Shanghai nickel price reference range of 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton and the LME nickel 3M contract reference range of $16,000 - 18,000/ton. [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 136,322 yuan, up 3.21%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 134,200 - 139,200 yuan, with an average increase of 4,200 yuan (3.17%), and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was up 3.47%. The LC2605 contract closed at 137,000 yuan, up 3.07%. [16] - **Strategy**: The market's pessimistic sentiment has eased. If the resumption of a major mine in Jiangxi fails to materialize, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate will remain tight after the Spring Festival, and the inventory will continue to decline. The downstream has basically completed pre - holiday restocking. The futures position of lithium carbonate has reached a six - month low, and it is likely to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 129,000 - 147,000 yuan/ton. [17] Alumina - **Market Data**: On February 9th, the alumina index rose 1.62% to 2,869 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was $304/ton, and the import loss was 75 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 24,600 tons to 242,600 tons. The ore prices in Guinea and Australia remained stable. [19] - **Strategy**: Workers at a mine in Guinea's Boké region have launched an indefinite strike. The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation in the short - term, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see, and the future price trend depends on whether the Guinea mine disruption will materialize and whether the high domestic supply pressure can be effectively alleviated. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and key factors to watch include domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [20] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,735 yuan/ton on Monday, up 0.48%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets were stable. The raw material prices were also stable. The futures inventory increased, and the social inventory increased to 914,200 tons, with the 300 - series inventory up 2.49%. [22] - **Strategy**: From the supply side, although the raw material supply has recovered, the agents' sales rhythm has slowed down due to the steel mill's price - limit policy. The demand is restricted by the pre - Spring Festival off - season, and the market's purchasing willingness is weak. The steel mills will collectively cut production in February, and the supply is expected to tighten. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of going long at low prices, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 13,900 yuan/ton. [23] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Data**: The cast aluminum alloy price rebounded, and the main AD2604 contract closed slightly up 0.54% to 22,165 yuan/ton. The weighted contract's open interest and trading volume remained high, and the warehouse receipts increased. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the import price was stable. The domestic three - place aluminum alloy inventory decreased. [25] - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has increased. Although the demand is average, the price is strongly supported in the short - term due to continuous supply - side disruptions and seasonal tightness in raw material supply. [26]

During the final stretch of 2025, investors gradually began to rotate capital out of volatile growth stocks and seek more durable safe havens. Specifically, the spot price of gold soared 26% during the fourth quarter, and rose 65% during the entire year. Even though we're only a little over a month into 2026, the momentum behind gold's rally doesn't appear to be fading. With the commodity currently hovering just below $5,000 per ounce, smart investors are surely wondering how much higher the precious meta ...