Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of position control in trading, suggesting that managing positions effectively can lead to stable profits and minimize losses during market fluctuations [1] - Recent trends indicate that international gold prices have surged over 4% in the past four trading days, reaching a new historical high, driven by declining attractiveness of alternative assets like U.S. Treasuries and ongoing market uncertainty [2][3] - The market is currently pricing in an 82.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in its January 2026 meeting, with significant shifts expected in the probabilities for the March 2026 meeting, reflecting ongoing uncertainty regarding monetary policy [2] Group 2 - Gold remains a highly recognized safe-haven asset, with its demand closely linked to market confidence indicators, such as the CNN Fear and Greed Index, which has recently shown a recovery but is now stabilizing at a neutral level [3] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields, which have dropped from 4.2% to around 4.1%, is expected to reduce the relative attractiveness of fixed-income assets, potentially driving more capital towards gold as a safe-haven investment [3] - Technical analysis of gold indicates a strong bullish structure, with prices supported above key levels, suggesting that traders should wait for pullbacks to enter long positions rather than chasing highs [4][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant rise in gold prices driven by geopolitical tensions, with spot gold nearing $4550 per ounce, marking a historical high and a weekly increase of 4.49% [1] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction as 2026 approaches, with an 82.3% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates in January 2026, while expectations for a potential rate cut have increased significantly [2] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields, which have fallen from 4.2% to around 4.1%, is reducing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated fixed-income assets, potentially driving investors towards gold as a safer asset [2][3] Group 2 - Gold has shown remarkable performance in 2025, with over a 100% increase since breaking long-term lows in 2024, and a year-to-date rise exceeding 65%, outperforming most asset classes [4] - Technical indicators suggest that while gold prices are currently in a strong upward trend, there is a risk of a significant profit-taking sell-off in early 2026 due to overbought conditions [4] - The current price action indicates that gold is likely to continue its upward trajectory, with key resistance at $4550 and support around $4500, suggesting a potential for further price movements within these ranges [4]

近日，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中突破7.0整数关口，创下15个月以来的新高，距离市场期待的"6"字头 仅一步之遥。自今年4月以来，人民币兑美元开启持续升值通道，累计升值幅度已达6%，打破了此前两 年多的震荡格局。这波升值行情不仅牵动着金融市场的神经，也与普通民众的留学、旅游消费，以及企 业的进出口经营息息相关。 作为两种核心货币的比价，人民币兑美元的走势从来都是内外因素共同作用的结果。从美元走弱的外部 推力，到中国经济韧性的内部支撑，再到市场季节性行为的叠加，多重力量共同促成了本轮升值行情。 而展望未来，人民币是否会顺利迈入"6"时代，又将受到哪些变量的扰动？ 如果说美元走弱是"东风"，那么中国经济的稳健表现与人民币资产吸引力的提升，则是人民币能够接住 这波东风的根本底气。 经济基本面的韧性不断超出市场预期。2025年11月，中国国民经济运行数据显示，出口增速由降转升， 达到5.7%，前11个月货物贸易顺差更是首次突破1万亿美元，创下历史同期新高。充足的贸易顺差带来 了稳定的外汇流入，为人民币汇率提供了直接的流动性支撑。同时，国际机构纷纷为中国经济投出"信 任票"，国际货币基金组织、世界银行先后上调2025年中 ...

12月26日，国际现货金、银价格再创历史新高。 自12月25日夜盘时段起，贵金属价格再度强势走高，并一直延续到12月26日亚洲时段开盘。现货黄金 (伦敦金现)一度触及每盎司4531.284美元的创纪录高位。现货白银(伦敦银现)连续突破每盎司73美元、 74美元和75美元关口，最高触及75.142美元/盎司。 从机构目前对金银市场的观点来看，多头逻辑的主要支撑因素并没有发生明显改变。 中金公司最新研报指出，近期黄金价格一度冲破4500美元/盎司，再创历史新高，背后是三重因素支 撑：首先是美联储重启宽松周期；其次是美元信誉下降；最后是全球地缘风险升级。"目前黄金上涨至 4500美元/盎司附近，已经提前达到我们的长期价格预测。基于当前基本面指标数值，其实黄金价格已 经明显高于模型计算的短期估值中枢，可能存在一定泡沫。" 往后看，中金公司认为，由于美联储政策与美国经济尚未出现拐点，因此黄金牛市可能并未结束。但在 黄金价格已经脱离基本面指标与模型拟合后，市场波动或明显增大，具体点位预测难度较高，建议淡化 黄金价格点位预测，更关注资产趋势改变时点。 白银的逻辑又略有不同，南华期货认为，因市场规模更小，且工业需求刚性以及现 ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 12月26日，近期数字资产市场阴云密布，ZFX山海证券表示，加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数已连续14天陷 入"极度恐惧"区间。截至12月26日，该指数进一步下滑至20分，这不仅反映了自12月13日以来持续低迷 的投资氛围，更是该指数自2018年发布以来最长的一段低谷期。尽管当前比特币价格仍维持在8.8万美 元上方，远高于2022年末的水平，但市场情绪的脆弱程度却已超过了当年的FTX危机时期。 受宏观政策不确定性影响，市场正面临多重压力。ZFX山海证券认为，对全球贸易摩擦引发的关税担忧 是导致10月以来市场蒸发近5000亿美元市值的核心诱因。同时，美联储在2026年第一季度的货币政策动 向成为悬在投资者头上的达摩克利斯之剑。分析人士指出，若美联储选择暂停降息以应对通胀压力，比 特币价格可能面临下探至7万美元的风险。目前，比特币较10月初的峰值已回落近30%，市场波动性与 交易量的双重下滑进一步印证了情绪的冰点。 在散户参与度方面，ZFX山海证券表示，谷歌搜索量、维基百科词条浏览量以及社交媒体的讨论热度均 已降至熊市水平。这种"离场感"主要源于加密本土散户在经历多次市场波动与杠杆清 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - **Macro**: Overseas, the US GDP in Q3 grew by 4.3% year - on - year, and the employment market recovered, weakening the rate - cut expectation. Domestically, the government will continue to implement proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with expanding domestic demand as the primary task next year. However, the domestic demand in November was weak, still needing policy support [2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: Although there is an expectation that the RMB will "break 7 and enter 6" in 2026, there are three potential risks. The RMB's real purchasing power is underestimated, and the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread is the core trigger for its appreciation. The attractiveness of the capital market has become a key variable for the exchange - rate trend [4]. - **Stock Index**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although the market sentiment has improved, there is still pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end and tightened capital [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: Maintain a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term bond market. Hold mid - term long positions [8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a narrow - range consolidation, weighing between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", waiting for a clear pre - holiday driver [9]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: In the medium - to - long term, the bull market foundation of platinum remains. In the short term, beware of adjustment risks due to the large futures - spot price difference and light spot trading [16]. - **Gold & Silver**: In the short term, gold is in a relatively strong state after breaking through the previous high, while silver has high price risks. In the medium - to - long term, maintain a bullish view [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price has exceeded the expected range. After reaching a new high, the long - short game intensifies, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to run weakly. For cast aluminum alloy, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [21][22]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [23]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock [24]. - **Tin**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to operate within the range [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, beware of sharp fluctuations. In the medium - to - long term, there are opportunities to go long on dips [26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, with value for long - term bottom - fishing. Polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals, and new registered warehouse receipts should be monitored [27][28]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 in the short term [29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the rebar 2605 contract between 2900 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract between 3000 - 3400 [30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to run within a range, with limited upside space after valuation repair [33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve. For coke, if steel mills resume production quickly, the supply - demand structure is expected to improve [35][36]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and they may follow the steel - price trend [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The current market is neutral. The "breaking 7" of the RMB brings macro - level benefits, and the price has rebounded from a low level. For offset - paper futures, the market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to wait and see or try short - term long positions [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of the situation [43]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals are stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern and is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. PTA's processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, with an internal - weak and external - strong pattern. Styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation, and the follow - up should focus on relevant news [56]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - **Log**: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - **Propylene**: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: In the long - term, it can be bullish, but in the short - to - medium term, focus on the fundamentals. The near - term出栏 pressure remains, while the far - term is affected by expectations and shows a strong trend [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The external - market soybeans are waiting for the January USDA report, and the internal - market soybean meal should focus on the supply increase from state reserves. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, they will continue to fluctuate. Palm oil is relatively strong in the sector, and attention should be paid to the production and biodiesel market information [70]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the hedging pressure on cotton prices is gradually digested. In the long - term, the supply - demand may be tight, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - **Sugar**: In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and the price is under pressure. In the short term, some farmers are culling hens. It is recommended to take a light - position long position if betting on a rebound [74][75]. - **Apples**: The near - term is strong, and the far - term is weak. Wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - **Jujubes**: In the short term, the jujube price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, the supply - demand is loose, and the price will be under pressure [78][79]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market News**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to issues such as the relaxation of rare - earth magnet exports to the US, TikTok's joint - venture establishment in the US, and opposed the US's additional 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products. Japan plans to launch a record - high budget of 122 trillion yen in the new fiscal year [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0066 on the previous trading day, and the mid - price rose. Japan raised its economic forecast for the 2025 fiscal year and is approaching the 2% inflation target [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index closed up on the previous trading day, and the market sentiment improved. However, there is pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond closed down on Thursday, and the trading volume of medium - and long - term varieties continued to shrink. The market adheres to a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term [7][8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The futures market fluctuates between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", with spot - price increase games and geopolitical disturbances [9][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to limit positions. The long - term prospects of platinum are good, but beware of short - term adjustment risks [14][16]. - **Gold & Silver**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, while the domestic night - session was active. Silver rose sharply. Pay attention to the appointment of the new Fed chairman and economic data [17]. - **Copper**: The CSPT did not set a spot - purchase guidance price for Q1 2026. The copper price has reached a new high, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [18][19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term, alumina is in an over - supply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the aluminum - price trend [20][21][22]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has strong support below. The supply is expected to be loose in the long - term, but the short - term raw - material supply is tight. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [22][23]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: They showed a slight correction and are expected to fluctuate widely. The nickel - ore market is expected to be stable and strong, and the stainless - steel market is relatively stable [23][24]. - **Tin**: It fluctuated widely at a high level. The supply from Myanmar and Indonesia is expected to recover in December, and the demand has no obvious increase in the short term [25][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price decreased, and the trading volume and open interest declined. The industry is in a state of production increase and inventory reduction [25][26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, and polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals. Pay attention to new registered warehouse receipts [27][28]. - **Lead**: The lead price rebounded slightly. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is stable. It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 [28][29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price rebounded due to the rise of coking coal and iron ore prices and then fluctuated. The supply may increase, and the demand is in the off - season [30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: The port inventory is accumulating, but the steel - mill inventory is low. The iron - water production is expected to bottom out, and the price is expected to run within a range [32][33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking - coal inventory structure is deteriorating, and the coke's third - round price cut has been fully implemented. As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve [34][35][36]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They rebounded from the bottom last week due to policy and cost factors. The supply may decrease, and the demand is expected to decline [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price rebounded from a low level, and the offset - paper market sentiment improved. The port pulp inventory is decreasing, and some pulp mills have reduced prices [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas. The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price [42][43]. - **LPG**: The LPG price fluctuated, and the fundamentals were stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern, and PTA's production has decreased significantly. The PTA processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price is mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [52][53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, and styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation. Follow - up attention should be paid to relevant news [54][56]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - **Log**: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - **Propylene**: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The futures price decreased slightly, and the spot price showed regional differences. The long - term can be bullish, but focus on the short - to - medium - term fundamentals [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The external - market was closed for Christmas. The soybean supply is expected to be stable, and the rapeseed supply is low. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - **Oils and Fats**: The external - market was closed for Christmas. Palm oil production is expected to decline, and the demand is expected to increase. The overall market will continue to fluctuate [70]. - **Cotton**: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic cotton price rose. The new - season cotton - planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - **Sugar**: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic sugar price fell. In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The futures price was stable, and the spot price was mainly stable. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is excessive, and some farmers are culling hens [74][75]. - **Apples**: The futures price fluctuated horizontally, and the spot price was stable. The consumption has slowed down, and wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - **Jujubes**: The new - jujube harvest is basically completed. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the long - term supply - demand is loose [78][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Under the background of the Fed's loose monetary policy, there is still support on the sentiment side. Copper prices may rise further, but the upward resistance has increased due to factors such as higher - than - expected long - term copper concentrate processing fees and weak year - end consumption [3]. - For aluminum, the overall inventory remains at a relatively low level, and with overseas supply disruptions, there is strong support for aluminum prices. However, weak downstream consumption creates pressure, and it is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate and rise in the short term [5]. - For lead, the supply of lead ingots has tightened marginally, and the visible inventory is at a relatively low level. It is expected that lead prices will run strongly in a wide range in the short term [8]. - For zinc, the shortage of domestic zinc ore is expected to ease marginally. Be vigilant against the price impact on other non - ferrous metals after the departure of precious metals funds [9]. - For tin, although the current tin market has weak demand and there is an expectation of supply improvement, considering the low downstream inventory, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate following market risk appetite. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - For nickel, although the excess pressure of nickel is still large, the market's short - selling sentiment has declined. The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [14]. - For lithium carbonate, the long - position trend of the futures market has not ended. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options with a light position, and pay attention to fundamental dynamics and position changes [18]. - For alumina, the ore price is expected to decline oscillatingly, and the over - capacity pattern of the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [21]. - For stainless steel, the market lacks factors for a continuous strong rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay close attention to the implementation of policies [25]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the price has strong support at the bottom due to cost and supply disruptions, while demand is relatively unstable and delivery pressure creates upper - limit suppression. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The offshore RMB broke through 7. Affected by supply - side disturbance news, copper prices remained strong. The main contract of Shanghai copper closed up to 97,680 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper increased by more than 20,000 tons compared with Monday, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.7 to 59,000 tons. The spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong expanded, and the transaction was light. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase [2]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: With the support of the Fed's loose monetary policy sentiment, the copper mine supply remains in a tense pattern, and there is a risk of structural shortage in refined copper supply. However, the long - term benchmark of copper concentrate processing fees is slightly higher than expected, and year - end consumption is weak. The main contract of Shanghai copper is expected to run in the range of 95,500 - 98,800 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum ingot inventory continued to increase, but sentiment remained warm. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed down 0.25% to 22,275 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract decreased by 10,000 to 653,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased slightly to 77,000 tons. The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 24,000 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory increased by 4,000 tons. The processing fee of aluminum bars rebounded, and the trading atmosphere was light. The spot of electrolytic aluminum in East China was at a discount of 170 yuan/ton to the futures, and downstream consumption remained weak at the end of the year [4]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Domestic aluminum inventory has rebounded, overseas aluminum inventory has declined oscillatingly, and the overall inventory remains at a relatively low level. With overseas supply disruptions, there is strong support for aluminum prices, while weak downstream consumption creates pressure. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to run in the range of 22,150 - 22,400 yuan/ton [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.52% to 17,311 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 91,100 lots. LME was closed. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,100 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,050 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 11,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 100 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 35 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory decreased slightly by 2,500 tons to 17,000 tons [6][7]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the processing fee of lead concentrate has remained flat, and the operating rate of primary lead smelters has increased. The inventory of waste batteries has declined marginally, the operating rate of recycled lead has declined marginally, and the operating rate of battery enterprises has remained basically stable. The supply of domestic lead ingots has tightened marginally, and the visible inventory of lead ingots remains at a relatively low level. It is expected that lead prices will run strongly in a wide range in the short term [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.70% to 23,080 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 196,800 lots. LME was closed. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 23,080 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 80 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was 10 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was 5 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 75 yuan/ton. The futures inventory of zinc ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 41,300 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was 80 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 35 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 7,700 tons to 111,600 tons [9]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of zinc ore has increased, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. With the increase in the Shanghai - London ratio, it is expected that the shortage of domestic zinc ore will ease marginally. LME zinc ingot inventory has increased, and the LME zinc month - spread has returned to a Contango structure. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continues to decline, the spot basis has increased, but the month - spread remains low. Be vigilant against the price impact on other non - ferrous metals after the departure of precious metals funds [9]. Tin - **Market Information**: On December 25, 2025, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 335,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.73% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating rate of tin ingot smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi remained stable at a high level but lacked upward momentum. In Yunnan, the smelting cost was restricted by low processing fees, and year - end consumption was weak. In Jiangxi, the supply of recycled raw materials was insufficient. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises remained stable. In November, the output of sample enterprises increased by 0.95% month - on - month, and the operating rate increased by 0.69% compared with October, supported by orders from emerging fields. However, high tin prices suppressed downstream procurement willingness, and the spot transaction was light this week [10][11]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Although the current tin market has weak demand and there is an expectation of supply improvement, considering the low downstream inventory, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate following market risk appetite. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract is expected to run in the range of 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is expected to run in the range of 39,000 - 43,000 US dollars/ton [12]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Thursday, nickel prices fell and adjusted. The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 1,254,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium of each brand remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was reported at 6,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore delivered to the factory was reported at 51.07 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - laterite nickel ore delivered to the factory was reported at 23 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore produced in the Philippines CIF was reported at 52.7 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The price of nickel iron increased slightly, and the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was reported at 892 yuan/nickel point, with the average price unchanged from the previous day [13]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: Currently, the excess pressure of nickel is still large, but due to the Indonesian government's plan to tax cobalt elements, the market's short - selling sentiment has declined. The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The Shanghai nickel price is expected to run in the range of 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract is expected to run in the range of 13,000 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 115,645 yuan, a decrease of 0.11% from the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 114,700 - 117,500 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 150 yuan (- 0.13%) from the previous working day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 112,500 - 114,000 yuan. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 123,520 yuan, a decrease of 0.96% from the previous day's closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 2,150 yuan. The weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate reported by SMM was 109,773 tons, a decrease of 652 tons (- 0.6%) from last week, including a decrease of 239 tons in the upstream and 413 tons in the downstream and other links [16]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The Jiuxiaowo lithium mine project is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival. On Thursday, some long - positions took the initiative to stop profits in the morning, and the market was boosted by the news that Tianqi Lithium changed the spot pricing method at noon. Although there are occasional disturbances in the off - season concerns, the optimistic demand expectation cannot be falsified, and the long - position trend in the futures market has not ended. The position of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and capital games dominate the market. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options with a light position. The LC2605 contract of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to run in the range of 120,600 - 128,000 yuan/ton [17][18]. Alumina - **Market Information**: As of 3 pm on December 25, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.25% to 2,612 yuan/ton during the day, with a total unilateral trading position of 619,700 lots, an increase of 18,000 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the spot price in Shandong fell 5 yuan/ton to 2,630 yuan/ton, with a premium of 16 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB fell 1 US dollar/ton to 308 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 63 yuan. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Thursday were reported at 161,100 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous trading day. In the ore end, the Guinea CIF price remained unchanged at 66 US dollars/ton, and the Australian CIF price remained unchanged at 67 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: After the rainy season, Guinea's shipments are gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The ore price is expected to decline oscillatingly. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the subsequent production reduction expectation is strengthened. The overall non - ferrous sector is trending strongly, and the cost - performance of short - selling is not high. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to run in the range of 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [21]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Thursday, the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65% (- 85) on the day, with a unilateral position of 194,500 lots, a decrease of 5,017 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Delong 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Foshan market was reported at 12,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Wuxi market was reported at 13,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan from the previous day. The Foshan basis was - 290 (+ 35), and the Wuxi basis was - 190 (+ 35). The Foshan Hongwang 201 was reported at 8,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang annealed 430 was reported at 7,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of high - nickel iron in Shandong was reported at 905 yuan/nickel, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day. The recycling price of Baoding 304 scrap steel industrial materials was reported at 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The quotation of high - carbon ferrochrome in the northern main production area was 8,100 yuan/50 - base ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures inventory was 48,495 tons, a decrease of 12,106 tons from the previous day. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory decreased to 1,005,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.55%, including 631,700 tons of 300 - series inventory, a month - on - month decrease of 1.98% [23]. - **Strategic Viewpoint**: The Indonesian government plans to set the nickel ore production target in the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) at about 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 379 million tons set in the 2025 RKAB. Although the implementation details are not clear, this news has boosted the Shanghai nickel price and the stainless steel market. However, the actual spot market transaction is still light, and traders are cautious in quoting and mainly wait and see. In the short term, the market lacks factors for a continuous strong rebound, but if the nickel ore supply quota is clearly tightened later, it may still drive prices up quickly. It is recommended to wait and see and pay close attention to the implementation of policies [

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the RMB exchange rate exhibited a "weak first, strong later, and narrowing fluctuations" trajectory, with the offshore RMB successfully breaking the 7 key level by year-end, laying a strong foundation for 2026 [2][3] Summary by Sections 2025 Review - The RMB/USD exchange rate can be divided into three phases: a weak phase from early January to early April, a rapid appreciation phase from early April to early July, and a moderate appreciation phase from July to year-end. The year started with an exchange rate of 7.27, hitting a low of 7.42879 in April, a depreciation of over 2.18% [3] - From April to July, the RMB appreciated over 2.58%, rising from around 7.35 to 7.16 due to clearer Fed rate cuts and improved US-China trade negotiations [3] - By December 24, the offshore RMB surpassed 7.01, resulting in an overall appreciation of over 4% for the year, while the onshore RMB depreciated by 3.83% [3] Exchange Rate Characteristics - In 2025, the RMB showed a "strong against the USD, weak against a basket of currencies" characteristic, with the CFETS RMB index down 4.1% and the RMB depreciating against the euro by 8.5% and the Mexican peso by 10.5% [4] - The market structure improved, with a shift from a deficit of $39.243 billion in January to a surplus of $51.758 billion by September, indicating a positive cycle of expectations, capital inflow, and exchange rate appreciation [4] Core Driving Logic - The RMB's appreciation in 2025 was driven by both external and internal factors, with the Fed's monetary policy shift being the most critical variable. Since September 2025, the Fed has cut rates by 0.75 percentage points, contributing to a structural weakening of the USD [5] - Internally, China's economic resilience, capital inflows, and policy support formed a threefold force, with GDP growth exceeding expectations and a stable trade surplus providing a solid foundation for the RMB [6] Seasonal Factors - Seasonal factors, particularly pre-Spring Festival capital settlement behaviors, significantly contributed to the RMB's year-end appreciation, with December typically seeing the highest levels of bank settlement surplus [7] 2026 Outlook - The RMB is expected to maintain a "moderate appreciation" trend in 2026, with a predicted range of 6.7 to 7.2 against the USD. Various institutions forecast the year-end exchange rate to be between 6.7 and 7.0 [8][9] - Three potential scenarios for 2026 include a baseline scenario of gradual appreciation, an optimistic scenario with significant appreciation due to strong domestic recovery, and a pessimistic scenario where the RMB faces downward pressure due to economic challenges [9] Impact on Economy and Capital Markets - The anticipated RMB appreciation will lower import costs and improve corporate profitability, particularly benefiting industries reliant on imports [11] - Conversely, export-oriented companies may face profit pressures due to exchange rate fluctuations, necessitating effective risk management strategies [11] - The RMB's appreciation is expected to attract foreign capital, with historical data showing a positive correlation between exchange rate increases and foreign investment inflows [12] Policy Implications - The central bank's approach will balance "stabilizing the exchange rate" and "promoting openness," emphasizing market-driven exchange rate formation while supporting RMB internationalization [14] - The ongoing reforms and policy measures aim to enhance the RMB's global standing and stabilize its exchange rate, creating a favorable environment for high-quality economic development [14]

记者 辛圆 北京时间11:45，离岸人民币对美元报6.9973，较上日收盘价涨103个基点。离岸人民币对美元汇率升破"7"这一整数关口，为2024年10月以来首次。 12月以来，在岸、离岸人民币对美元均升值约1.0%。 展望2026年，分析人士认为，支撑人民币前期升值的核心因素如国内经济基本面、美联储货币政策路径、中国央行政策立场等仍具有较强的生命力。因此， 尽管升值的速度和节奏可能会有变化，但支撑人民币强势的基本逻辑并未改变，人民币在合理均衡水平上的稳健偏强运行态势有望延续。 南华期货宏观外汇分析师周骥对智通财经表示，从内部因素看，首先中国经济的结构性修复是支撑人民币汇率的基础；其次，货物贸易的顺差格局和经常账 户的健康状况，为人民币汇率提供了最坚实的物质基础。 华泰证券表示，从资本流动季节性判断，春节前，出口商通常需要结汇来支付员工奖金，出口结汇比例有望进一步低位回升，推动人民币升值加速。 从外部来看，美联储货币政策路径和美元指数走势，是影响人民币汇率的关键变量。 周骥表示，随着美国通胀受控，美联储预计维持宽松立场，中美利差将逐步收敛。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对智通财经表示，12月以来人民币对美元走强 ...

有色金属日报 2025-12-25 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 陈仪方 从业资格号：F03152004 0755-23375125 chenyf3@wkqh.cn 离岸人民币延续走强，贵金属上涨和对供应缩减的担忧带动铜价冲高，昨日伦铜收涨 0.65%至 12133 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 95020 元/吨。LME 库存减少 1550 至 157025 吨， ...