市场分析 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-15 出口订单大增 不锈钢价格连续上涨 镍品种 2025-05-15日沪镍主力合约2506开于123230元/吨，收于125230元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化0.80%，当日成交量为 136563手，持仓量为63077手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘跳空低开后振荡上涨，日盘开盘后继续振荡上涨，午后走平，收大阳线。成交量较上个交易日 大幅减少，持仓量有所减少。中国1-4月社会融资规模增量16.34万亿元，比上年同期多3.61万亿元，市场预估为16.58 万亿元，1-3月为15.18万亿元。中国1-4月新增人民币贷款10.06万亿元，预估为10.47万亿元，1-3月为9.77万亿元。 4月末货币供应量M2同比增长8%，较上月提高1个百分点。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日上涨约1075 元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均出现相应上调，日内镍价再度上幅反弹，下游企业刚需采购为主，精炼镍现货成交整 体有所好转，各品牌现货升贴水多数持稳。其中金川镍升水变化-50元/吨至2150元/吨，进口镍升水变化50元/吨至 200元/吨，镍豆升水为 -450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单量为2 ...

"4月末M2增速较快上扬，背后是上年同期基数大幅走低，以及当月社融增速加快，拉动存款派生。"东方金诚首 席分析师王青表示，当前M2增速明显高于名义GDP增速，显示金融对实体经济具有较强支持性。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬分析称，后续随着低基数效应的递减，未来M2同比增速会恢复到今年前几个月的正常 增长水平。 另外，狭义货币（M1）余额109.14万亿元，同比增长1.5%，较上月末小幅回落0.1个百分点。 华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 刘佳 北京报道 4月作为传统的信贷"小月"，信贷投放稳定性和可持续性有所增强。 5月14日，在央行公布的金融数据中，4月新增人民币贷款2800亿元，同比少增4500亿元；4月新增社会融资规模为 11585亿元，同比多增12243亿元。 4月末，广义货币（M2）同比增长8.0%；狭义货币（M1）同比增长1.5%；流通中货币（M0）余额13.14万亿元， 同比增长12%。前四个月净投放现金3193亿元。 在多位受访人士看来，受季节性效应、关税冲击以及债务置换等多因素影响下，4月新增信贷有所回落，但政府债 发行等支撑下，社融增速呈稳步走高态势，今年以来金融对 ...

证券研究报告 银行 信贷需求待提振，政府债再发力 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 14 日│中国内地 动态点评 信贷同比少增，需求有待提振 4 月贷款新增 2800 亿元(Wind 一致预期 7644 亿元)，同比少增 4500 亿元。 4 月贷款存量同比增速+7.2%，较 3 月末-0.2pct。4 月为贷款传统的淡季， 叠加 Q1 信贷超预期，信贷"靠前发力"对后续投放造成一定透支。居民贷 款减少 5216 亿元，同比多减 50 亿元，其中短贷、中长贷分别同比多减 501 亿元、少减 435 亿元。4 月商品房成交有所走弱，居民消费需求仍待复苏。 企业贷款新增 6100 亿元，同比少增 2500 亿元，其中短贷、中长贷、票据 融资分别同比多减 700 亿元、少增 1600 亿元、少增 40 亿元。Q1 央行货政 例会重提"提高资金使用效率"，票据融资冲量强度弱于去年同期。 直融同比多增，政府债再发力 4 月直接融资 1.25 万亿元，同比多增 1.15 万亿元；政府债券融资 9762 亿 元，同比多增 1.07 万亿元；企业债券融资 2340 亿元，同比多增 633 亿元； 非金融企业境内股票融资 392 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prices of copper, aluminum, and zinc on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached their highest levels since early April due to the U.S. adjusting tariffs on Chinese imports, which temporarily increased the risk appetite for metals reliant on economic growth [1][3]. Price Movements - As of May 14, 2023, LME three-month copper rose by $7 to $9,606.50 per ton, having previously hit a peak of $9,664, the highest since April 2 [1][2]. - Three-month aluminum reached $2,543.5 per ton, marking its highest point since April 1 [1]. - Three-month zinc increased by 2.22%, closing at $2,765.00 per ton [1][2]. Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. has rescinded a total of 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and modified a 34% tariff, with 24% of it suspended for 90 days, while retaining 10% [3]. - The adjustments are in line with the consensus reached during high-level economic talks between the U.S. and China [3]. Market Conditions - The U.S. dollar has weakened following disappointing consumer inflation data, providing further support to the market [4]. - China's social financing scale stock was reported at 424 trillion yuan at the end of April 2025, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year growth, indicating future demand for industrial metals [4]. - The premium of COMEX copper over LME copper has decreased from 18% at the end of March to around 10% currently, with COMEX copper inventories increasing by 77% since late February [4].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 非银回流银行，M2 增速回升 ——4 月金融数据解读 2025 年 4 月新增人民币贷款 2800 亿元，同比少增 4500 亿元，信贷余额增速 由 7.4%回落至 7.2%；新增社会融资规模 1.16 万亿，同比多增 1.22 万亿元， 社融存量增速由 8.4%回升至 8.7%；M2 同比增速从 7%修复至 8%，新口径的 M1 增速由 1.6%小幅下降至 1.5%。整体来看，季末信贷冲刺形成较为明显的 透支效应，4 月信贷增长大幅偏弱于预期，其中企业部门是明显拖累，但由于 央行"前置降息"，数据发布后市场反应钝化。在政府债券前置发行的支持下， 社融增速继续回升。存款方面，M1 表现不弱，去年手工补息禁止之后，存款 大幅外流形成低基数，非银存款回流支撑本月 M2 增速明显修复。 一、积极信号之中的季节性因素 二季度融出定价相对偏低的情况下，理财等广义基金增配存款带动 M2 增速 明显修复。（1）4 月 M2 减少 8815 亿元，较去年同期少减 2.7 万亿，带动 M2 增速向上回升接近 1 个百分点，其中非银定期存款为主要支撑，当月同比多增 1.9 万亿，与 ...

作 者丨 唐婧 编 辑丨张星 5月1 4日，中国人民银行发布前4月金融数据。数据显示，2 0 2 5年4月末社会融资规模存量为4 2 4 . 0万亿元，同比增长8 . 7%，较上月 上升0 . 3个百分点。其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款余额为2 6 2 . 2 7万亿元，同比增长7 . 1%，较上月下滑0 . 1个百分点。 从存量结构看，4月末对实体经济发放的人民币贷款余额占同期社会融资规模存量的6 1 . 9%，同比低0 . 9个百分点；政府债券余额占 比2 0 . 3%，同比高2 . 1个百分点；企业债券余额占比7 . 7%，同比低0 . 4个百分点。 从增量看，2 0 2 5年前四个月社会融资规模增量累计为1 6 . 3 4万亿元，比上年同期多3 . 6 1万亿元。其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷 款增加9 . 7 8万亿元，同比多增3 3 9 7亿元；政府债券净融资4 . 8 5万亿元，同比多增3 . 5 8万亿元；企业债券净融资7 5 9 1亿元，同比少 4 0 9 5亿元。4月当月，社会融资规模新增1 . 1 6万亿元。 分析人士表示， 政府债券发行加快是前四个月社融最主要的拉动因素。 今年财政预 ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in social financing scale and broad money (M2) growth, indicating a stable and moderately loose monetary policy [1][2] - The acceleration in government bond issuance has been a significant driver of social financing growth, with net financing exceeding 500 billion yuan in April [1][3] - The shift in credit allocation towards small and micro enterprises and the manufacturing sector reflects a structural adjustment in the economy [3][4] Monetary and Financial Data - As of the end of April, the social financing scale reached 424 trillion yuan, growing by 8.7% year-on-year, while M2 stood at 325.17 trillion yuan, with an 8% increase [1] - New social financing in April amounted to 1.16 trillion yuan, which is approximately 1.22 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - The balance of RMB loans was 265.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, and the growth rate exceeded 8% after adjusting for local debt replacement [1][2] Government Bond Issuance - The net financing from government bonds in the first four months of the year surpassed 500 billion yuan, which is about 3.6 trillion yuan more than the previous year [1][3] - In April, the issuance of special government bonds and local government refinancing bonds contributed to a net financing of approximately 970 billion yuan, boosting the social financing growth rate by about 0.3 percentage points [1][3] Credit Structure and Allocation - The proportion of loans to small and micro enterprises increased from 31% to 38%, while loans to large and medium-sized enterprises decreased from 69% to 62% [3] - The allocation of credit has shifted towards the manufacturing and technology innovation sectors, with the share of manufacturing loans rising from 5.1% to 9.3% [3] - The interest rates for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans in April were approximately 3.2% and 3.1%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 50 and 55 basis points, respectively [3] Future Outlook - Despite uncertainties in foreign trade and ongoing local debt replacement, the introduction of a package of financial policy measures is expected to boost market confidence and support the recovery of effective demand in the real economy [4] - Overall, the financial volume is anticipated to maintain steady growth in the near term [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the financial data for April shows a stable and solid growth, reflecting a moderately loose monetary policy aimed at supporting the real economy [1][6] - As of the end of April, the total social financing scale reached 424 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, supported by strong fiscal measures and a rapid issuance of bonds [2][4] - The M2 money supply stood at 325.17 trillion yuan, growing by 8.0% year-on-year, influenced by a low base effect from the previous year [2][3] Group 2 - The growth of RMB loans reached 10.06 trillion yuan in the first four months, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% as of the end of April, indicating a higher actual support for the economy when adjusting for local debt replacement effects [4][5] - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.2% in April, down about 4 basis points from the previous month and 50 basis points from the same period last year, indicating a downward trend in financing costs [5] - Recent financial policies introduced by the People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies are expected to boost market confidence and support the recovery of effective demand in the real economy [6]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported a significant increase in broad money (M2) growth rate, reaching 8% year-on-year by the end of April, which is 1 percentage point higher than the previous month, reflecting effective counter-cyclical adjustments and financial stability measures [1] - In the first four months of the year, new RMB loans increased by 1.006 trillion yuan, with approximately 280 billion yuan added in April alone. The total social financing scale increased by 1.634 trillion yuan during the same period, with April's increment being 116 billion yuan, which is 122 billion yuan more than the previous year [1][2] - The issuance of government bonds has been robust, with net financing of 485 billion yuan in the first four months, which is 358 billion yuan more than the previous year. This is expected to continue supporting social financing growth [2][3] Group 2 - The shift of deposits to wealth management products has decreased compared to last year, with some funds returning to deposit accounts. This trend is influenced by the previous year's bond yield decline and the corresponding rise in wealth management product yields [2] - By the end of April, the RMB loan balance grew by 7.2% year-on-year, with new loans of approximately 280 billion yuan. The increase in loans to enterprises has been a significant factor, with corporate loans rising from 63% to 68% of total loans since 2021, indicating a shift in credit allocation towards the real economy [3] - The recent introduction of a package of financial policies by regulatory bodies is expected to boost market confidence and maintain stable growth in financial aggregates in the near term [3][4]

Group 1 - The central bank released April financial data showing that new RMB loans in April were 280 billion yuan, a decrease of 450 billion yuan year-on-year, influenced by hidden debt replacement and seasonal overdrafts [1][2] - The social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan in April, significantly up by 1.22 trillion yuan year-on-year, with the end-of-month social financing stock growing by 8.7% year-on-year [1][3] - M2 money supply grew by 8% year-on-year at the end of April, which is 1 percentage point higher than the previous month, indicating enhanced financial support for the real economy [1][3] Group 2 - The acceleration in government bond issuance is the primary driver for the increase in social financing growth, with net financing from government bonds exceeding 500 billion yuan in the first four months, up by approximately 360 billion yuan year-on-year [3] - In April, the issuance of special government bonds and refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts contributed to a net financing of about 970 billion yuan, raising social financing growth by approximately 0.3 percentage points [3] - The reduction in bond yields in April encouraged enterprises to increase bond financing, thereby lowering overall financing costs [3] Group 3 - A reserve requirement ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points was implemented, expected to release about 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, enhancing credit supply capabilities in specific sectors like automotive finance and financial leasing [4] - Analysts anticipate that monetary policy will remain "appropriately loose" in the second half of the year, with expectations for continued interest rate cuts and an increase in new loans and social financing [4]