下任美联储主席人选即将公布。 当地时间1月29日晚间，美国总统特朗普在一场活动中被问及何时公布下任美联储主席人选时说，"明天 上午"。 现任美联储主席鲍威尔任期将于5月结束，他还将主持3月、4月两次议息会议。 从去年下半年以来，下任美联储主席的头号人选在以下四人间多次变化，他们分别是白宫国家经济委员 会主任凯文·哈西特、美联储前理事凯文·沃什、美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒、贝莱德集团全球固定收益 首席投资官里克・里德（Rick Rieder）。 在线博彩网站Polymarket最新数据显示，沃什获得提名的概率飙升至80%，与其他候选人明显拉开距 离，而最近的头号人选里德获得提名的概率降至10%。 沃什出生于1970年4月，他本科毕业于斯坦福大学，他是哈佛大学的法学博士。他目前是斯坦·德鲁肯米 勒家族办公室Duquesne的合伙人、斯坦福大学访问学者。德鲁肯米勒是美国传奇投资人，他与美国财政 部长贝森特都曾在索罗斯基金担任要职。沃什的人脉关系还包括知名投资人彼得・蒂尔、风险投资家马 克・安德森。蒂尔也是最早公开支持特朗普的硅谷创投大佬之一。此外，沃什的夫人Jane Lauder是雅诗 兰黛的继承人之一。 沃什曾供 ...

Group 1: 2025 Budget Execution - The total general public budget revenue for the city reached 2,160,960 thousand yuan, representing a growth of 3.6% compared to the previous year, with total revenue including transfer income of 7,091,526 thousand yuan [1] - The total general public budget expenditure was 5,934,002 thousand yuan, with a comparable growth of 0.5% after excluding certain factors [1] - The city-level general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% to 658,100 thousand yuan, while the expenditure increased by 2.9% to 1,516,193 thousand yuan [1] Group 2: Government Fund Budget Execution - The total government fund budget revenue was 1,701,498 thousand yuan, a decline of 14.1%, with total revenue including transfer income of 4,427,013 thousand yuan [2] - The total government fund budget expenditure increased by 31.8% to 3,201,126 thousand yuan [2] - City-level government fund budget revenue decreased by 8.9% to 709,379 thousand yuan, while expenditure grew by 11.2% to 868,707 thousand yuan [2] Group 3: Social Insurance Fund Budget Execution - The total social insurance fund budget revenue was 1,529,345 thousand yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.1%, with total expenditure of 1,237,770 thousand yuan, which grew by 10.2% [3] - City-level social insurance fund budget revenue increased by 3.1% to 794,220 thousand yuan, while expenditure rose by 10.4% to 723,965 thousand yuan [3] - The total surplus for the social insurance fund was 291,575 thousand yuan, with year-end balances of 1,879,519 thousand yuan [3] Group 4: National Capital Management Budget Execution - The total national capital management budget revenue was 217,245 thousand yuan, a decrease of 20.9%, with total revenue including transfer income of 218,619 thousand yuan [4] - The total expenditure in this category was 189 thousand yuan, a significant drop of 99.8% [4] - City-level national capital management budget revenue decreased by 28.4% to 186,576 thousand yuan, with total expenditure also balanced at 186,576 thousand yuan [4] Group 5: Key Fiscal Policies and Work Implementation for 2025 - The city aims to enhance revenue and control expenditures, focusing on tax revenue management and optimizing asset resources [5] - A total of 156.97 billion yuan in local financial resources is allocated, with efforts to secure additional provincial funding of 67.81 billion yuan [5] - The city has successfully secured various funding sources for major projects, including 195.06 billion yuan in new local government bonds [5] Group 6: 2026 Budget Draft - The projected general public budget revenue for 2026 is expected to be 2,207,021 thousand yuan, a growth of 2.1% [9] - The total government fund budget revenue is anticipated to reach 2,245,319 thousand yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 32.0% [10] - The social insurance fund budget revenue is projected to decline by 4.8% to 1,455,758 thousand yuan, while expenditures are expected to grow by 8.5% [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, while indicating robust economic expansion but high uncertainty in the economic outlook [1] Economic Outlook - The labor market will be the primary driver of the Federal Reserve's policy decisions this year, with expectations of two rate cuts in the second half of the year, each by 25 basis points, due to a slightly elevated unemployment rate projected to be around 4.5% by year-end [1][2] - Inflation is expected to remain sticky, with a current rate around 3%, but could potentially drop to near 2% by the end of the year without tariff impacts [3][4] Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise slightly in the first quarter, reaching a peak around mid-year before showing signs of improvement, with the labor market remaining somewhat weak but stable enough to support rate cuts [3][2] Inflation Dynamics - Tariff effects are delaying the overall decline in inflation, which is expected to stay high in the first half of the year, with a potential return to lower levels by 2027 [4][3] Federal Reserve Leadership Uncertainty - The upcoming change in Federal Reserve leadership introduces significant uncertainty, as different candidates may adopt varying policy approaches and communication styles, impacting market expectations [5] GDP Growth Projections - The consensus for U.S. GDP growth is around 2% for the year, with attention on the impacts of the "Big and Beautiful" tax plan, which could influence economic forecasts as more data becomes available in the coming months [6][10] Stock Market Outlook - The stock market is expected to perform well this year, driven by a more robust overall economy and improved performance across various sectors, although there are concerns about over-reliance on AI-related investments [7][8] - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach a target of 7500 points by year-end, reflecting optimism despite potential risks associated with AI stock performance [9] Sector Opportunities - The consumer discretionary sector is anticipated to regain market attention, alongside a recovery in the housing market and increased consumer spending from middle-income groups [10] Currency Trends - The dollar may continue to show weakness in the short term, but there is potential for a long-term strengthening if the stock market performs well and productivity gains from AI investments materialize [11] Investment Risks and Opportunities - Investors should closely monitor the effects of tax refund seasons and tax measures on household balance sheets, as these will significantly influence economic performance in the near term [12]

"内需"是当前观察中国经济的关键词 。 最新数据显示 ， 2025年中国社会消费品零售总额首次突破50万亿元，消费对经济增长的贡献率稳 固在52%。然而， 经济"暖数据"之下，居民消费与企业投资意愿偏冷的"温差"依然明显，多位经济 学家警示复苏的基础并不牢固。 "2025年的整个宏观经济积极一点说是处在经济复苏的早期阶段。"CF40资深研究员、中国社科院 世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌表示，复苏的基础还不牢固，内生增长的动力还得不到支撑。 这考验宏观调控的智慧。 01 复苏进行时：基础是否牢固？ 国家统计局近日发布数据显示， 2025年中国国内生产总值（GDP）首次跃上140万亿元新台阶，按 不变价格计算，比上年增长5.0%。 2025年社会消费品零售总额突破50万亿元，比上年增长 3.7%。全年服务零售额比上年增长5.5%，最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献率达52%。 金融市场上，股票市场、人民币汇率、社融增速、企业存款等金融指标有明显提升，企业盈利止住了 连续多年的下行趋势，消费、劳动力市场总体运行平稳。 " 2025年的整个宏观经济积极一点说 是 处在 经济复苏的早期阶段。 "张斌同时强调，"复苏的基 础还 ...

Core Viewpoint - The CF40 report indicates that China's macroeconomic environment in Q4 2025 shows early signs of economic recovery, with expectations for continued marginal improvement in 2026, contingent on robust counter-cyclical policies [1][2] Economic Performance in 2025 - China's macroeconomic indicators such as stock market performance, RMB exchange rate, social financing growth, and corporate deposits have shown significant improvement [1] - Corporate profits have halted a multi-year decline, and consumption and the labor market are generally stable [1] - The report attributes the economic recovery to fiscal support, external demand, and prior price adjustments, while noting that investment and the real estate market still face considerable pressure, indicating weak endogenous economic momentum [1] Strategies for 2026 - To continue expanding domestic demand and enhance endogenous economic momentum in 2026, the report emphasizes the importance of strong counter-cyclical policies [2] - Fiscal policy should involve active borrowing to maintain necessary spending levels, while monetary policy is crucial for stimulating endogenous growth [2] - A loose monetary policy is expected to work by changing expectations and ensuring that microeconomic entities can make viable financial calculations [2] - The central bank's clear commitment to inflation targets and significant reductions in policy interest rates are seen as essential for encouraging private investment and home purchases [2] - The report advocates for a dual approach leveraging both government and market forces to maximize the role of monetary policy in expanding domestic demand [2] International Economic Context - CF40 members highlight the changing international economic environment, noting China's transition from a "small economy" to a "large economy," which makes domestic economic circulation increasingly important [2] - To expand domestic demand, it is essential to allow the market to play a decisive role in resource allocation while enhancing government public policy effectiveness, improving residents' income, and developing the service sector [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since Q4 last year, there have been strong concerns about the supply of ultra - long bonds in the market. In January this year, the issuance scale of ultra - long government bonds increased significantly year - on - year, with the increment mainly from new special bonds, indicating a decent demand for capital for major project construction at the beginning of the year. The central bank's relatively active liquidity injection and banks' increased purchases at the ultra - long end have alleviated market concerns to some extent [3]. - From the perspective of achieving the annual economic target, the annual fiscal increment may exceed market expectations, and fiscal policies may be supplemented in the second half of the year. It is estimated that the net financing of government bonds in 2026 will be 15.1 trillion yuan, and the issuance of ultra - long government bonds will be 7.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 trillion yuan. For Q1, the issuance of ultra - long government bonds is expected to be 2.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 416.7 billion yuan, with certain supply pressure in February and March [3]. - Insurance is likely to have a good start, with an expected annual premium growth of 6.6% and the growth rate of the balance of funds utilization remaining at around 15%. It is estimated that in 2026, the proportion of ultra - long bonds allocated by insurance in the annual issuance of ultra - long bonds will drop to about 31%, and the proportion in its own bond investment will remain basically flat at about 71%, corresponding to an investment scale of about 2.2 trillion yuan, basically the same as in 2025 [3]. - It is estimated that the investment scale of commercial banks in ultra - long bonds in 2026 will be about 4.82 trillion yuan, accounting for about 67.7% of the annual issuance of ultra - long bonds, a year - on - year increase of 0.66 trillion yuan [3]. - For trading institutions, based on a neutral judgment of the interest rate trend, the investment scale of funds and securities firms in ultra - long bonds may be higher than that in 2025 but lower than that in 2024, totaling about 10 billion yuan [3]. - The 30 - 10 - year term spread in 2025 mainly widened due to the contraction of trading desks' demand for ultra - long bonds and frictions in the trading process, rather than being mainly determined by primary supply [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 How is the supply of ultra - long government bonds this year calculated according to the upper limit? - It is estimated that the net financing of government bonds in 2026 will be 15.1 trillion yuan, including 7.143 trillion yuan for treasury bonds and 7.938 trillion yuan for local bonds. In terms of issuance, the issuance of general treasury bonds will be 14.1377 trillion yuan, special treasury bonds 2 trillion yuan, new general bonds 80 billion yuan, new special bonds 550 billion yuan, special refinancing bonds 200 billion yuan, and ordinary refinancing bonds 325.8 billion yuan [7]. - The issuance of ultra - long government bonds in 2026 is expected to be 7.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 trillion yuan. Among them, the issuance of ultra - long treasury bonds will be 1.74 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 225 billion yuan, and the issuance of ultra - long local bonds will be 5.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 475 billion yuan [8]. - For Q1, the issuance of ultra - long government bonds is expected to be 2.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 416.7 billion yuan. The issuance of ultra - long treasury bonds in Q1 is usually low because special treasury bonds need to be approved by the Two Sessions and are expected to start issuing at the end of April. The planned issuance of local bonds in Q1 is about 2.38 trillion yuan, with a relatively high refinancing ratio, and the issuance of replacement bonds is expected to be in the front, making room for new bonds for construction projects later. The issuance progress of new special bonds is expected to be faster than last year [9][10]. 3.2 How is the demand for ultra - long bonds? 3.2.1 Insurance - In 2025, the premium income of insurance companies from January to November was 5.76 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.56%. Property insurance increased by 2.48% year - on - year, with auto insurance as the main source of income, accounting for over 52% and highly correlated with the growth rate of vehicle ownership. Personal insurance increased by 9.2% year - on - year, with life insurance accounting for about 77% and growing by 11.47%, mainly driven by the popularity of savings - type insurance products [12][13]. - In 2026, the probability of a "good start" for premium income is high. Favorable factors include high - interest fixed - deposit maturities, the correlation between the stock market's good start in January and premium income growth, and a low base in 2025. Unfavorable factors include pressure on traditional life insurance and the over - consumption of demand due to previous "panic - buying" promotions. It is expected that the annual premium income will achieve stable growth, with property insurance growing by about 2% and personal insurance by about 8%, and the overall insurance premium income increasing by about 6.6% [14][15]. - At the end of Q3 2025, the balance of insurance funds utilization was 37.46 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. In 2026, it is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of the balance of insurance funds utilization will decline slightly to 15%. The proportion of bank deposits is expected to drop to 7%, the proportion of stock investment to rise to 11.5%, the proportion of fund investment to rise to 6%, the proportion of long - term equity investment to be stable at 8%, and the proportion of other investments to drop to 16%. The proportion of bonds will remain stable at 51.5%, with a net increment of about 3.1 trillion yuan [20][21]. - From 2022 - 2025, the net purchases of ultra - long bonds by insurance institutions in the secondary market were 0.48, 0.73, 1.71, and 2.28 trillion yuan respectively, accounting for 13.62%, 20.7%, 31.3%, and 35.5% of the annual issuance of ultra - long bonds, and 48%, 41%, 67%, and 72% of the annual bond investment respectively. In 2026, it is expected that the proportion of ultra - long bonds in the annual issuance of ultra - long bonds will drop from 35.5% in 2025 to about 31%, and the proportion in its own bond investment will drop slightly from 72% in 2025 to 71%, corresponding to an investment scale of about 2.2 trillion yuan [25][26]. 3.2.2 Banks - In 2025, the proportion of banks' bond allocation increased significantly. The government bond custody volume of commercial banks was 63.85 trillion yuan, accounting for 67.17% of the outstanding government bonds. The incremental custody of government bonds by commercial banks in 2025 was 10.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 78% of the net financing of government bonds in 2025 [29]. - It is estimated that in 2026, the passive allocation scale of commercial banks for government bonds will be 10.56 trillion yuan, and the scale of bond purchases will be 17.56 trillion yuan. The scale of ultra - long bonds that commercial banks need to undertake may be 4.48 trillion yuan. It is also expected that the excess allocation scale of commercial banks for ultra - long bonds in 2026 will increase slightly to 0.34 trillion yuan compared with last year. Overall, the scale of commercial banks' allocation of ultra - long bonds in 2026 is estimated to be about 4.82 trillion yuan [30][32]. - After the implementation of the redemption new rules at the beginning of this year, part of the banks' entrusted - out investment has been transferred back to self - operated allocation. The probability of using this part of the funds to increase the allocation of ultra - long bonds is not high due to certain indicator pressures [33]. 3.2.3 Trading Institutions - In 2025, securities firms mainly increased their allocation of treasury bonds, reduced their allocation of local bonds, and shortened the duration of government bonds. The investment scale of securities firms in ultra - long bonds decreased by 1.493 billion yuan. In 2026, it is expected that the investment scale of securities firms in ultra - long bonds will be basically the same as in 2025 [40][41]. - At the end of 2025, non - monetary funds held 12.51 trillion yuan in bond investments. In 2025, funds only net - bought 5.82 billion yuan of ultra - long interest - rate bonds. In 2026, due to the implementation of the fund sales new rules and concerns about the cancellation of tax exemption, the liability side of bond - type funds is unstable. It is expected that the investment scale of funds in ultra - long bonds will be higher than that in 2025 but lower than that in 2024, about 10 billion yuan [41][42]. 3.3 Does the 30 - 10 - year term spread depend on primary supply? - The widening of the 30y - 10y treasury bond spread in 2025 mainly occurred in the second half of the year, mainly due to the significant improvement in the stock market sentiment, the fund sales new rules, and the interest - rate adjustment, which led to the selling of ultra - long bonds by trading - like desks. If primary supply were the decisive factor, the spread should have widened in Q2 2025 [45]. - The widening of the 30y - 10y local bond spread also shows that primary supply is not the main influencing factor, as the power of allocation desks is sufficient to hedge the selling pressure [45]. - For the secondary interest - rate trend, the willingness of trading desks to increase holdings and short - term frictions seem to be more crucial [48].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference prioritizes expanding domestic demand, emphasizing the need to "build a strong domestic market" for 2026 [2] Group 1: Characteristics of the New Domestic Demand Strategy - The national emphasis on expanding domestic demand has significantly increased, with counter-cyclical policies placing greater focus on this area [2] - Policy responses to economic data have become more sensitive, as seen in the dynamic adjustments throughout 2025, where proactive fiscal policies were implemented in response to economic pressures [2] - Fiscal policy operations have become more refined, with specific measures like including elevator upgrades in the support for equipment renewal in the livelihood sector [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Actions - Confidence must be strengthened through clear policy positions to stabilize expectations and calibrate price signals, enhancing the transmission effect of monetary policy [4] - The central bank should set clear and singular policy goals, such as a 2% core CPI inflation target, to avoid conflicting objectives and ensure market confidence [4] - Total policy tools, particularly policy interest rates, are crucial for expanding domestic demand, with current rates at approximately 1.4% indicating room for further reductions [4] Group 3: Economic Recovery Indicators - The macroeconomic landscape in 2025 shows early signs of recovery, with improvements in stock markets, RMB exchange rates, and corporate profitability, although the recovery foundation remains fragile [5] - The average mortgage rate from 2018 to 2021 was 5.5%, with a 4.1% annual increase in second-hand housing prices, resulting in a near purchase cost of 1.4%, which is lower than the average rental yield of 2.2% [5] - From 2022 to 2025, the average mortgage rate decreased to 3.9%, but the annual growth rate of second-hand housing prices fell to -4.8%, leading to an increased purchase cost of 8.7%, making buying less advantageous compared to renting [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. It is influenced by the stock market, the broad - money signal released by the Politburo meeting, the unchanged LPR, the continued expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the increasing uncertainty of global trade, which adds uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI monthly环比 is 0.20% and同比 is 0.80%; PPI monthly环比 is 0.20% and同比 is - 1.90% [8] - Social financing scale is 442.12 trillion yuan, with a环比 increase of 2.05 trillion yuan and a环比 change rate of 0.47%; M2同比 is 8.50%, with a环比 change rate of + 6.25%; Manufacturing PMI is 50.10%, with a环比 change rate of + 1.83% [9] - The US dollar index is 95.77, with a环比 decrease of 1.28 and a环比 change rate of - 1.32%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.9335, with a环比 decrease of 0.020 and a环比 change rate of - 0.29%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.56, with a环比 increase of 0.02 and a环比 change rate of + 1.36%; DR007 is 1.58, with a环比 increase of 0.01 and a环比 change rate of + 0.60%; R007 is 1.68, with a环比 increase of 0.17 and a环比 change rate of + 11.44%; The 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.59, with a环比 increase of 0.01 and a环比 change rate of + 0.55%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a环比 increase of 0.00 and a环比 change rate of + 0.55% [9] 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures including the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, etc. [12][15][19] 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures such as the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of the inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA), the bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics and the local government bond issuance [29][32] 3.4 Spread Overview No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures about the inter - term spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures and the term spread of cash bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [31][37][38] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures about the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [40][42][48] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures about the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [49][52] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures about the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [54][55] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text summary information provided, but there are figures about the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [60][65]

需求端三驾马车中，哪些因素可能支撑 2026 年一季度的经济表现？ 经济和市场会有开门红吗？20260127 摘要 预计 2026 年一季度实际 GDP 增速约为 5%左右，名义 GDP 增速约为 4.5%，GDP 平减指数为负 0.6%，较上一季度有所收窄，经济下行趋 势或将逆转。 投资是 2026 年一季度经济增长的关键驱动力，预计固定资产投资增速 将大幅回升，受益于政策支持和"十五"规划重大项目的前置。 预计 2026 年一季度消费将有所回升，商品消费增速预计提升至 3%- 4%，服务消费受益于春节效应和以旧换新补贴政策的推动。 当前货币政策强调高效灵活，降息降准概率较低，主要通过调整利率变 化速度来稳定汇率波动，除非二月数据超预期，否则短期内新增货币政 策工具可能性不大。 人民币汇率近期升值，央行主要通过调控节奏和波动率来稳定人民币兑 美元汇率，而非直接干预汇率方向。 2026 年财政政策预计更注重结构性调整，狭义赤字率维持在 4.0%左右， 广义赤字率可能下降，资金更多向科技创新和现代化产业体系倾斜。 2026 年资本市场前景乐观，股票最具潜力，关注 PPI 回升对企业盈利 的支撑，看好科技板块（人 ...

中国网1月27日讯（记者 白璐）26日，中国金融40人论坛（CF40）举办宏观政策季度报告（2025年四季 度）发布会，主题聚焦重建扩大内需的动力机制。发布会上，中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副 所长张斌表示，2025年中国宏观经济处在复苏的早期阶段，但复苏的基础尚不牢固，内生增长的动力尚 未得到有效支撑，需要通过更积极的货币政策来实现经济内生增长动力的改善。 展望未来，张斌认为通过财政政策扩大内需的空间收窄，未来应该更加倚重货币政策。他表示，首先要 充分相信货币政策的重要作用，努力实现通胀目标，同时要充分利用总量政策工具，降低政策利率。 就中国的情况而言，过去逆周期调节主要以财政政策为重，通过财政政策启动公共投资项目，带动总需 求回升，取得了不错的效果。但张斌认为，未来这种做法需要调整。当一个经济体处于工业化高峰阶段 时，经济快速增长，生产率快速提升，城市化快速推进，在这一阶段通过财政政策进行逆周期的公共投 资和支出，既可以稳定总需求，也有利于城市扩张与基础设施的发展。而发展到现今阶段，债务水平和 赤字率有所提升，通过财政政策短期花大钱就会遇到更多困难。"过去，财政的大头是城市扩张，能够 在短期内形成很 ...