2025 年 6 月 9 日 总量研究 TMT 主题 ETF 资金显著流入，行业主题基金集体上涨 ——基金市场与 ESG 产品周报 20250609 要点 市场表现综述：大类资产方面，本周（下文如无特殊说明，本周均指代 2025.6.3-2025.6.6）原油价格大涨，国内权益市场指数普涨，创业板指上涨 2.32%。行业方面，本周通信、有色金属、电子行业涨幅居前，家用电器、 食品饮料、交通运输行业跌幅居前。基金市场方面，本周各类基金指数皆录 得正收益，股混基金显著反弹，偏股混合型基金上涨 1.94%。 基金产品发行情况：本周国内新基市场发行火热，新成立基金 42 只，合计 发行份额为 310.13 亿份。其中债券型基金 9 只、混合型基金 8 只、股票型 基金 22 只、FOF 基金 3 只。全市场新发行基金 36 只，从类型来看，股票型 基金 13 只、混合型基金 11 只、债券型基金 10 只、FOF 基金 1 只、国际 (QDII)基金 1 只。 基金产品表现跟踪：长期行业主题基金指数方面，本周各类行业主题基金集 体上涨，TMT 主题基金表现强势、医药主题基金优势延续，分别上涨 3.64%、2.24%。 ...

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to the requested topic[1][2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment has improved following a phone call between the leaders of China and the United States, with expectations for further discussions and outcomes from upcoming meetings [1] Market Performance - The stock markets experienced a rebound this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing all moving average resistances and approaching the mid-May high [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index also rebounded but remains under pressure from the 60-day moving average [1] - Average daily trading volume in both markets increased to approximately 11.8 billion, a significant rise compared to the previous week [1] Sector Focus - Market hotspots this week were primarily in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector and upstream non-ferrous metals industry [1] - The investment style leaned towards technology and small-cap stocks, which led the gains [1] Market Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index is attempting to challenge the mid-May high after a period of downward adjustment [1] - The index had shown a pattern of simultaneous lower highs and lows but found support at the 60-day moving average, leading to a new wave of rebound [1] - There are still strong technical resistances near last year's fourth-quarter trading volume concentration and this year's first-quarter market peak, warranting ongoing observation [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the performance of the ETF fund market, summarizing the performance and capital flows of the ETF fund market, different popular sub - type ETF funds, and innovative theme and sub - industry ETF funds in the past week (June 3 - June 6, 2025) to provide references for investors [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Market Overall Performance - Market performance: Most A - share - focused ETFs rose this week. TMT ETFs had the largest increase, with an average increase of 3.52% for funds above a certain scale, while consumer ETFs declined, with an average decline of 0.01% for funds above a certain scale [2][5]. - Capital flow: Capital continued to flow into bond ETFs significantly, with a net inflow of 14.418 billion yuan throughout the week. On the contrary, there was significant capital outflow from sectors such as Sci - tech Innovation/ChiNext related index ETFs, Hong Kong stock ETFs, and QDII - ETFs [3][9]. Different Popular Sub - type ETF Funds Market Performance - The report lists the performance of various sub - type ETFs, including broad - based index ETFs (such as ultra - large - cap, large - cap, small - and - medium - cap, etc.), industry - themed ETFs (TMT, mid - stream manufacturing, financial real estate, etc.), SmartBeta ETFs, bond ETFs, QDII ETFs, and commodity ETFs, presenting their latest scale, weekly capital flow, weekly return, weekly trading volume, recent 1 - month return, and year - to - date return [15][21][29]. Innovative Theme and Sub - industry ETF Funds Market Performance - The report shows the market performance of high - attention innovative theme and sub - industry ETFs, including TMT innovation themes, consumer sub - industries, pharmaceutical sub - industries, new energy themes, central and state - owned enterprise themes, stable - growth themes, Hong Kong - related sub - industries, etc., presenting the weekly return, year - to - date return, fund code, representative fund name, weekly return, and latest scale [33][34][35].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis

Group 1 - The sentiment in the TMT sector, particularly in consumption ideas and optical module CPO, has improved, with related ETFs showing active performance [1] - The 5G Communication ETF (515050) rose by 2.29%, with leading stocks such as Shengyi Technology, Industrial Fulian, and Tianfu Communication [1] - Nvidia's Q1 FY2026 earnings report showed an EPS of $0.76, revenue of $44.062 billion, and a net profit of $18.775 billion, with a post-market stock price increase of over 5% [1] Group 2 - The 5G Communication ETF (515050) tracks the CSI 5G Communication Theme Index and focuses on sectors like 5G, AI computing, and Nvidia's supply chain [2] - The ETF covers leading stocks in various sub-industries, including AI computing, 6G, consumer electronics, PCB, communication equipment, servers, optical modules, and IoT [2] - The Huaxia AI ETF (159381) tracks the ChiNext AI Index, selecting AI-focused companies listed on the ChiNext board, with significant exposure to optical modules and IT services [2]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced narrow fluctuations with overall weak performance, while the TMT sector showed strength [1][4] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both saw intraday declines exceeding 1%, with notable drops in stocks like BYD and Geely [1][15][16] A-share Performance - Major indices showed mixed results at the close, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.30%, Shenzhen Component down 0.71%, and ChiNext Index down 1.28% [4][5] - The TMT sector saw a rise, with the Wind TMT Index increasing over 1.5% during the session, and more than 10 stocks hitting the daily limit or rising over 10% [5][6] Sector Performance - The media sector led gains, with intraday increases exceeding 2%, driven by stocks like Glacier Network and China Science Publishing [7][9] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector faced declines, with stocks like Haichen Pharmaceutical and Keyuan Pharmaceutical dropping over 10% [9] Futures Market - Domestic coking coal futures saw intraday declines exceeding 1%, with a cumulative drop of over 30% year-to-date [2][25] - The pressure on coking coal prices is attributed to increased supply from Shanxi and Xinjiang, while demand growth remains limited [27] Company Specifics - Miniso reported a 18.9% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1, but adjusted net profit decreased to RMB 587.2 million from RMB 616.9 million in the previous year [22][28] - The total number of Miniso stores reached 7,768 as of March 31, 2025, with a net increase of 978 stores [23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing interest of bond-type fund managers in enhancing the flexibility of product net values amid optimistic market sentiment and the growing attractiveness of equity assets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in market volatility is encouraging more funds to enter the market, with the 10-year government bond yield returning to around 1.6%, leading to asset allocation concerns among institutional and individual investors [3]. - Since September of the previous year, there has been a significant increase in investors' risk appetite, and the involvement of stabilizing funds has contributed to reduced volatility in the A-share market [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy of the fund emphasizes a contrarian approach and value investing, focusing on low drawdown and stable returns by integrating macroeconomic judgments with individual stock valuations and earnings [4]. - The current investment framework includes adjusting overall stock positions based on macroeconomic assessments, adjusting industry weights based on mid-level economic conditions, and selecting leading stocks for diversified holdings [4]. Group 3: Sector Preferences - The fund manager prefers to focus on industry selection rather than individual stock picking, maintaining a balanced industry allocation while being responsive to changes in industry conditions and valuation [8]. - The fund is particularly optimistic about sectors related to domestic consumption, healthcare, midstream manufacturing, and cyclical recovery, which are expected to see a resurgence in the latter half of the year [9]. Group 4: Consumer Trends - The article highlights a strong performance in the new consumption sector, which is seen as a unique bright spot amid overall consumption recovery, driven by new product categories and companies with strong operational capabilities [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The market is shifting from risk-driven to liquidity-driven, with personal investors benefiting the most from indices like the North Securities 50 and micro-cap stocks as tariff easing is fully priced in [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Economic pressures are emerging, and the difficulty of U.S. interest rate cuts is increasing. The market has fully priced in expectations of tariff war easing, and the recovery of growth sectors driven by rising risk appetite is nearing its end. The lowest point of the current export chain's price increase was on April 9, with an acceleration phase starting in late April. The current pressure comes from rising U.S. inflation, which, alongside tariff-related disturbances, is expected to exert upward pressure on inflation into the second quarter of 2025 due to rising housing prices and manufacturing recovery [2]. Participant Structure Changes - There is a notable return of speculative funds, regaining pricing power as implicit risks like tariffs have materialized. In mid to late May, the market will shift from risk appetite improvement to liquidity-driven dynamics. Monitoring models indicate that speculative trading began to bottom out in late April, with significant non-linear characteristics observed in market capitalization, where large-cap indices like the Shanghai Composite and micro-cap stocks are leading gains, while mid-cap indices are lagging [3]. Financial Sector Outlook - The financial sector, which has been long undervalued, is expected to see a recovery. Public fund positions in the consumer sector have increased from 11.46% to 15.65% since the lowest point on March 4. However, their holdings in the financial sector remain low at 5.57%, with banks at 3.31% and non-banks at 1.75%. Despite this, the public fund regulations limit significant reductions in the already underweighted financial sector. The financial sector is favored by the market due to its valuation gap, and various factors are expected to contribute to its recovery, which will likely exhibit a stepwise characteristic [4].

分析师：柏逸凡 登记编号：S0890524100001 分析师：程秉哲 登记编号：S0890522110001 投资要点 报告统计时间为2025.05.05-2025.05.09。 静观其变，谋而后动。关税下调之后，可适度控制仓位，静观其变，建议关注红利低波、银行、 公用事业等方向。待市场出现阶段性调整或政策发力紧迫性提高时再积极布局，可关注AI+、 TMT、电子等科技方向，以及旅游、文娱、体育等新型消费的逢低布局机会。 权益市场， 上周，市场风格方面，小盘及成长风格表现强势；风格波动方面，市场风格波动处于 低位，风格较为稳定。市场结构方面，上周，行业指数超额收益离散度继续下降，成分股上涨比 例先升后降，行业轮动速度快速上升；交易集中度方面，前100个股成交额占比及前5行业成交额 占比继续维持在低位，显示行业热点较为分散。市场活跃度方面，上周，市场波动率从高位迅速 下降，换手率亦快速下行。 商品市场方面， 上周，趋势强度表现分化，能化、黑色板块延续其较强的趋势性，有色、农产 品、贵金属板块趋势性较弱；基差动量方面，有色、农产品板块维持高位；波动率方面，各板块 波动率从高位大幅下降；流动性方面，各板块流动性表现 ...