7月17日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价整体持稳，老庙、老凤祥、周生生这3家金店金价继续波动中。其中，周生 生黄金上涨6元/克，报价1009元/克，为今日最高价金店。今日的最低价金店还是报价969元/克的上海中国黄金。今日最高与 最低金店间价差扩大至40元/克。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年7月17日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1002 | 元/克 | 3 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 0 | म | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 0 | 47 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 988 | 元/克 | 0 | 27 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 0 | 27 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1005 | 元/克 | 1 | 涨 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 0 | দ | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1009 | 元/克 | 6 | ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the challenges faced by the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing fluctuations and closing down 72 points or 0.29% [2][3] - The report indicates a decrease in net inflow from the Northbound trading, with a net inflow of 1.603 billion HKD, down 58.1% from the previous day [2] - The report discusses the performance of various sectors, noting that 7 out of 12 Hang Seng Composite Industry Indices rose, while 8 fell, with the healthcare, telecommunications, essential consumer goods, and conglomerates showing slight increases [3] Company Analysis - The report focuses on Li Ning (2331.HK), noting that the running and fitness categories are leading growth, while retail channels remain under pressure due to weak consumer spending [5][6] - For Q2, the company reported low single-digit growth in overall platform revenue, with offline channels experiencing a decline, while e-commerce channels showed mid-single-digit growth [5] - The report mentions a decrease in the number of stores, with a total of 6,099 stores as of June 30, reflecting a net decrease of 18 stores since the beginning of the year [6] - The report highlights the signing of a new basketball ambassador, which is expected to boost the basketball category's growth [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that Li Ning's strategy of "single brand, multiple categories, and multiple channels" will continue to evolve, with a target price of 19.2 HKD based on a 20x PE for 2025 [7]

值得一提的是，当前鲍威尔的任期将在明年结束，即便不被解职，届时总统仍有权提名新任主席。正因如此，一些议员如金融服务委员会主席法兰奇·希尔 也表示，不妨等待自然过渡，避免通过政治手段干预货币政策的声誉。 GTC泽汇认为，这一事件所释放的最大风险，在于可能破坏市场对美联储制度稳定的信心。若外界担心货币政策会根据短期选举周期频繁转向，将对美元汇 率、债券市场乃至全球流动性配置产生连锁反应。 总体而言，GTC泽汇建议投资者密切关注美国政界在货币政策上的博弈走向，同时警惕相关消息面对风险资产的短期冲击。对于中长期配置者而言，关注联 储在经济数据驱动下的真实决策路径，而非政治言论引发的波动，依旧是更具理性的投资策略。 近期围绕美国前总统特朗普可能解除联邦储备主席鲍威尔职务的传言，再度引发市场和政界对美联储独立性的关注。GTC泽汇认为，尽管相关言论尚未转化 为实际行动，但由此引发的政策不确定性已经对投资者信心造成一定扰动，尤其在当前经济环境下，更需稳定货币政策的方向感。 作为美联储主席，鲍威尔历经多轮加息与货币紧缩周期，其决策立场虽曾遭多方质疑，但美联储作为全球最具影响力的央行，其独立性始终是全球资本市场 稳定运行的重要基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced significant volatility due to President Trump's comments about potentially firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which led to a sharp increase in gold prices before a partial retracement [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices initially dropped to a low of $3319 before surging to $3376, ultimately closing at $3346, indicating a day of high volatility [1] - Trump's ambiguous statements regarding Powell's position have raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, providing support for gold's safe-haven appeal [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Israel's airstrikes on Damascus have heightened regional instability, contributing to the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The Trump administration's announcement of potential tariffs on over 150 countries, with rates possibly set at 10% or 15%, has escalated global trade tensions, further supporting gold prices [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold market is expected to maintain a volatile trading range between $3330 and $3380, with key resistance levels at $3350-55 and $3370-80 [2] - A cautious approach is recommended, with traders advised to wait for market sentiment to stabilize before making significant moves [2] Group 4: Trading Recommendations - A suggested trading strategy includes buying gold at $3337-3336 with a stop loss at $3329 and a target of $3370-3380, while also considering short positions if prices drop below $3330 [3] Group 5: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data to watch includes U.S. initial jobless claims, retail sales, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, all scheduled for release on July 17 [4]

新华财经北京7月17日电 16日北美交易时段盘中，有关特朗普将解雇鲍威尔的传闻引发市场震荡，美元 指数较高点一度跌超1.2%，避险货币日元和瑞郎从日内低点涨逾1.4%，标普500指数一度急跌约0.6%， 美债收益率短线拉升。 据彭博报道，两位知情人士透露，特朗普在闭门会议上曾展示过一份据称可以授权撤换鲍威尔的文件， 但他周三否认起草或展示过此类文件。 不过这次风波在一个小时内就出现反转，美元指数、标普500指数小幅收涨，10年期国债收益率收报 4.463%。 虚惊一场？ 据悉，一位白宫官员称，美国总统特朗普可能很快解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，特朗普周二晚上已经与国会 共和党人讨论了这一可能的举动。会后，佛罗里达州共和党联邦众议员Anna Paulina Luna在社交媒体上 写道，"鲍威尔即将被解雇，并且解雇很快就会发生。" 特朗普表示，他不打算解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，尽管对其发起新一轮批评，且拒绝完全排除将其罢免的 可能性。特朗普还称，白宫经济顾问哈塞特是其考虑担任美联储职位的人选。此前一天，特朗普也称财 政部长贝森特是人选之一。 富国银行宏观策略师Erik Nelson认为，这种剧烈反应可能让特朗普政府意识到，撤 ...

值得一提的是，佛罗里达州共和党众议员露娜（Anna Paulina Luna）在社交媒体上也写道："从很 可靠的信源得知，鲍威尔可能要被解雇。"，"我99%确定近在眼前。" 2025.07. 17 本文字数：2140，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 美股周三盘中大幅跳水，消息称美国总统特朗普正在考虑解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，外界担忧美联储独 立性因此将受到挑战。随后特朗普向外界予以澄清，称相关报道不实，他大概率不会解雇鲍威尔，" 除非证明存在欺诈行为"。他还透露，白宫经济顾问哈塞特是其考虑担任美联储职位的人选。 据媒体援引知情人士的话称，特朗普周二与一些众议院共和党人沟通是否应该解雇美联储主席鲍威 尔，他甚至起草了一封解雇鲍威尔的信，并在加密货币会议上向议员们展示了这封信。 特朗普认 为，鲍威尔对两座美联储大楼的大规模翻修项目的处理可能是前所未有、在法律上可解雇他的理由。 受此影响，美国三大股指一度大幅跳水，回吐盘中涨幅，中长期美债收益率下行。联邦基金利率期货 定价显示，9月降息概率曾逼近70%。 在此之前，美联储决定对其位于华盛顿的总部Marriner S.Eccles大楼进行升级，因为其电气、 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is attempting to challenge Federal Reserve Chairman Powell by accusing him of mismanagement regarding the renovation budget of the Federal Reserve building, which has reportedly exceeded by approximately $700 million, likening it to the extravagance of the Palace of Versailles [1][3]. Group 1: Renovation Controversy - The White House budget director, Russell Vought, has claimed that the renovation project includes luxurious features such as a rooftop garden, VIP kitchen, and high-quality marble, which has led to accusations of severe mismanagement [1]. - In response, the Federal Reserve clarified that there is no new VIP restaurant, the "garden terrace" is merely a lawn, and the "new water feature" has been canceled, attributing cost increases to structural adjustments, rising material and labor costs, and unforeseen issues like asbestos [3]. Group 2: Powell's Position and Potential Resignation - Following the renovation controversy, reports suggest that Powell may be considering resignation due to the pressure from the Trump administration regarding the renovation project [3][4]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has indicated that the process for selecting Powell's successor has already begun, suggesting a potential shift in leadership at the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 3: Market Implications - Deutsche Bank's global forex strategy head, George Saravelos, warned that if Trump successfully forces Powell out, it would represent a significant but underestimated financial risk, potentially leading to a massive withdrawal of global funds and a severe blow to the perceived independence of the Federal Reserve [4][5]. - Saravelos predicts that such an event could result in a 3%-4% drop in the trade-weighted dollar index within 24 hours and a spike in U.S. Treasury yields by 30-40 basis points, creating sustained pressure on the dollar and bonds [5]. - ING's strategy team echoed similar concerns, stating that while the likelihood of Powell's early departure is low, if it occurs, it could steepen the Treasury yield curve and create a "toxic combination" for the dollar, benefiting currencies like the euro, yen, and Swiss franc [5]. Group 4: Summary of the Situation - Trump is leveraging the renovation budget issue to undermine Powell's authority and pave the way for his own nominee, while Powell has invited oversight to address the allegations [6]. - Although the market has not reacted significantly yet, institutions like Deutsche Bank and ING warn that escalation could lead to severe volatility in the dollar and Treasury markets, triggering a chain reaction in the global financial system [6].

今年早些时候，一位前美联储经济学家发布了一份关于该央行总部翻新成本飙升的报告，当时鲜有人关 注。数月后，这份不起眼的报告竟成了特朗普向美联储主席鲍威尔施压的核心武器——甚至可能成为解 雇他的理由。 特朗普可能没有法律权力因鲍威尔不降息而解雇他，但他的顾问们正抓住这个25亿美元的建筑项目大做 文章：将其塑造成政府浪费的具体案例，以此削弱鲍威尔履职所需的公众信任。 周三，特朗普称"极不可能"解雇鲍威尔，"除非他因欺诈不得不离职"。 白宫揪住美联储总部翻新项目的成本超支和大理石装修不放，并非因为对其建筑或预算有法律管辖权， 而是希望借此削弱公众对鲍威尔的信任、构建合法解雇他的理由，或两者兼具。 特朗普在第一任期和今年春天都曾提出解雇鲍威尔的想法，但两次都因顾问提醒"可能在法庭和金融市 场栽跟头"而放弃。 这促使一群特朗普的支持者将攻击矛头对准这个已进行多年的建筑项目，把它当作羞辱鲍威尔（希望他 主动辞职）或尝试让法院认可解雇行为的"武器"。 美联储相关法律规定，只有凭借"正当理由"（如渎职或失职）才能解雇政策制定者。法律专家质疑特朗 普政府是否有足够依据让法院批准解雇鲍威尔，并认为真正的策略可能是通过足够的政治打击 ...

Group 1 - The potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by President Trump could lead to significant market volatility, with a possible 6%-7% depreciation of the US dollar if the independence of the Federal Reserve is undermined [4] - The news of Trump's consideration to fire Powell caused an immediate drop in US stock markets, but was later reassured by Trump's denial, leading to a recovery in stock prices [4] - The situation highlights the tension between Trump and Powell, particularly regarding interest rate policies, as Powell has resisted Trump's calls for rate cuts [4] Group 2 - Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's visit to the Great Wall of China is a historic gesture, honoring former Prime Minister Gough Whitlam's previous visits [7] - The Australian government is not considering a ban on male early childhood educators despite public outcry following a scandal involving a male teacher, emphasizing the need for a national childcare worker registration system [9] - Coles supermarket is launching a promotional campaign offering over 4 million AUD in cash prizes to customers, aimed at helping them cope with inflation [13]

据智通财经消息，2025年7月15日，美国财长贝森特的一席话，像一颗石子投入平静的湖面，瞬间激起千层浪。面对媒体镜头，他首次明确宣 布：下一任美联储主席的遴选程序已正式启动。这并非寻常的人事变动，而是一场蓄谋已久的权力博弈。现任主席鲍威尔，这位坚持独立决策 的"倔老头"，正面临前所未有的压力。特朗普政府步步紧逼，目的直白——换上一个听话的"自己人"，来执行总统梦寐以求的降息命令。然而， 摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙在同日发出警告，强调美联储的独立性是"绝对关键"的基石。这场"逼宫"大戏，不仅关乎鲍威尔的去留，更牵动着全球 经济的神经。 回看过去几个月，特朗普对鲍威尔的攻击早已升级为一场公开拉锯战。鲍威尔的任期将在2026年5月结束，但他坚持不向政治压力低头。去年， 美联储累计降息100个基点，试图缓解经济压力；但进入2025年，鲍威尔却"踩了刹车"，连续4个月将联邦基金利率维持在4.25%-4.5%的高位不 变。这让特朗普怒火中烧。7月10日，白宫管理和预算办公室主任沃特在社交媒体上发难，指责美联储大楼翻修工程"严重超支"，试图用"盖楼 门"丑化鲍威尔的形象。紧接着，7月14日，特朗普在白宫咆哮："我们的美联储主席 ...