Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of Stephen Milan, a close ally of Trump, to the Federal Reserve Board raises concerns about the independence of the Fed and its future monetary policy direction [1][3][10]. Group 1: Appointment Implications - Milan's background as a supporter of Trump's policies and his involvement in trade agreements suggests he may prioritize a more accommodative monetary policy [3][5]. - If Milan is confirmed before the September meeting, he could influence discussions on interest rates and asset balance sheet reduction towards a more dovish stance [5][10]. - The historical context shows that political pressure on the Fed can lead to adverse long-term economic consequences, as seen during Nixon's presidency [8][11]. Group 2: Economic Context - The current U.S. benchmark interest rate is above 5%, and inflation, while reduced from a peak of over 9%, remains around 3% [5][6]. - A significant reduction in interest rates could risk reigniting inflation, which may not align with Trump's electoral priorities [6][11]. - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to exceed $1.7 trillion for the 2024 fiscal year, raising concerns about the implications of a more lenient monetary policy [11]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The potential for Milan to push for quicker rate cuts could lead to a reevaluation of global market pricing, impacting the dollar's value and U.S. Treasury yields [10][11]. - The perception of the Fed as a tool of the White House could undermine confidence in U.S. debt as a safe-haven asset, leading to possible market sell-offs [13][15]. - The ongoing politicization of the Fed may erode its credibility and independence, which are crucial for maintaining market stability [13][15].

Group 1: Return of 1930s Political Model - Current political and social conditions in the U.S. are compared to the global situation of the 1930s-1940s, characterized by wealth disparity, value gap, and a collapse of trust, leading to more extreme policies [4] - Trump's intervention in the private sector, such as acquiring a 10% stake in Intel, is seen as a manifestation of "strong authoritarian leadership" driven by a desire to control financial and economic situations [4] - Wall Street investors are increasingly concerned about Trump's policies but remain silent due to fear of retaliation [4][5] Group 2: Threats to Federal Reserve Independence - Dalio warns that the independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat, particularly after Trump's public dismissal of a Fed official [6][7] - A politicized central bank could undermine confidence in the Fed's ability to protect the value of the currency, making dollar-denominated debt assets less attractive [8] - International investors are shifting from U.S. Treasuries to gold, reflecting concerns about the stability of the dollar system [9] Group 3: Impending Debt Crisis - Dalio predicts that the U.S. will face a debt crisis in about three years, driven by a significant fiscal imbalance where annual spending is approximately $7 trillion against $5 trillion in revenue [11] - Investors are questioning whether U.S. Treasuries remain a good store of wealth, as debt demand may not keep pace with supply [12] - The Fed faces a difficult choice: allow interest rates to rise and risk a debt default crisis, or print money to buy debt that others are unwilling to purchase, both of which could harm the dollar [12]

美国联邦住房金融局局长Bill Pulte对福克斯商业台表示，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔没有在追究丽莎·库 克的责任。 Pulte表示，针对库克的指控似乎是"公然的抵押贷款欺诈，而杰罗姆·鲍威尔却保持沉默，可 以说他的做法显示了美联储缺乏独立性"。 来源：滚动播报 ...

随着特朗普上台以来，不断加大对美联储的施压力度，这个一向以保守和共识著称的专业性机构，很可 能会变得像美国最高法院一样愈加分裂。 自从特朗普重返白宫以来，特朗普一直要求美联储启动降息，还因为美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔主席拒 不降息而频繁对其进行指责。他还暗示自己有可能解雇鲍威尔，不过之后他又收回了这一说法。现在特 朗普又威胁称，如果美联储理事莉萨·库克不主动辞职，他就会将其解雇。 对此，莉萨·库克表示，她绝不会在胁迫下辞职。她还表示将对特朗普政府官员对她提出的抵押贷款欺 诈指控进行反诉。不管她的官司会打得怎么样，有一个问题都是现实的——她还会选择留任多久。 库克是2022年加入美联储的，当时美联储的一位理事任期未满便宣告辞职，库克在老拜登的提名下临时 补缺，后来又获得了连任。因此，她可以在美联储理事会干到2038年，不过理事们通常不会干满整个14 年的任期。 Capital Alpha Partners公司的管理合伙人伊恩·卡茨在上周三的一份报告中指出："现在，美联储已经越来 越像一颗政治足球。特朗普已明确表示，他想让忠于自己的人进入美联储理事会。因此，有的理事可能 会选择留任至自己政党这边的总统入主白宫——这 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio warns that the current political and social climate in the U.S. resembles that of the 1930s, with Wall Street investors remaining silent due to fear of retaliation for criticizing presidential policies [1][3]. Group 1: Political and Economic Interventions - Dalio highlights Trump's intervention in the private sector, such as acquiring a 10% stake in Intel, as indicative of "strong authoritarian leadership" driven by a desire to control financial and economic situations [2][3]. - The increasing wealth gap, value gap, and erosion of trust are pushing the U.S. towards more extreme policies, weakening democratic institutions and leading to a rise in authoritarian leadership [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Dalio expresses concern over the independence of the Federal Reserve, stating that a politicized central bank will undermine confidence in its ability to protect the value of the currency [2][5]. - International investors are reportedly shifting from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold, reflecting concerns about the stability of the dollar system amid political pressures on the Federal Reserve [6]. Group 3: Debt Crisis Predictions - Dalio predicts that the U.S. will face a debt crisis in about three years, driven by a significant fiscal imbalance where annual spending is approximately $7 trillion against $5 trillion in revenue [7][8]. - Investors are questioning whether U.S. Treasury bonds remain a reliable store of wealth, as the demand for debt is unlikely to keep pace with supply [8].

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio warns that the U.S. is being pushed towards a governance model reminiscent of the 1930s due to Trump's strong intervention in the private sector, leading to fears among Wall Street investors about potential retaliation for criticism [1][3][4] Group 1: Political and Economic Context - Dalio compares the current political and social climate in the U.S. to the global situation of the 1930s and 1940s, highlighting issues such as wealth disparity, value gap, and a collapse of trust driving the adoption of more extreme policies [4][5] - The intervention by the Trump administration in the private sector, particularly the acquisition of a 10% stake in Intel, exemplifies a desire for strong authoritarian leadership and control over financial and economic situations [3][4] Group 2: Wall Street's Response - Despite growing concerns among Wall Street investors regarding Trump's policies, few prominent financial figures openly criticize the president due to fears of retaliation [5][6] - Dalio emphasizes that his statements are merely a description of the causal relationships driving the current situation, highlighting the political pressure faced by the financial community [5] Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence - Dalio expresses concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly following Trump's actions to dismiss a Fed governor, which could undermine public confidence in the Fed's ability to maintain currency value [6] - The political pressure on the Fed may lead to a loss of attractiveness for dollar-denominated debt assets, prompting international investors to shift towards gold [6] Group 4: Debt Crisis Prediction - Dalio predicts that the U.S. will face a debt crisis within approximately three years, driven by a significant fiscal imbalance where annual expenditures of about $7 trillion exceed revenues of $5 trillion [7][8] - Investors are beginning to question whether U.S. Treasury bonds remain a reliable store of wealth, as debt demand is unlikely to keep pace with supply [8] - The Federal Reserve faces a difficult choice between allowing interest rates to rise, risking a debt default crisis, or printing money to purchase unwanted debt, both of which could harm the dollar [8]

Group 1: Political and Social Climate - Ray Dalio compares the current political and social climate in the U.S. to that of the 1930s and 1940s, highlighting issues such as wealth disparity, value gap, and a collapse of trust driving the adoption of more extreme policies [1][2] - The Trump administration's intervention in the private sector, particularly the acquisition of a 10% stake in Intel, is seen as a manifestation of "strong authoritarian leadership" driven by a desire to control financial and economic situations [1][2] Group 2: Wall Street's Response - Despite growing concerns among Wall Street investors regarding Trump's policies, few prominent financial figures have publicly criticized the president due to fears of retaliation [2] - Dalio emphasizes that his statements are merely a description of the causal relationships driving the current situation, reflecting the political pressure faced by the financial community [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence - Dalio expresses concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly following Trump's dismissal of a Fed governor, which he believes could undermine confidence in the Fed's ability to protect the value of the currency [3] - The political pressure on the Fed may lead to a loss of attractiveness for dollar-denominated debt assets, prompting international investors to shift towards gold [3] Group 4: Debt Crisis Prediction - Dalio predicts that the U.S. will face a debt crisis in approximately three years, driven by a significant fiscal imbalance where annual expenditures of about $7 trillion exceed revenues of $5 trillion [5] - The growing skepticism among investors regarding the reliability of U.S. debt as a store of value is highlighted, with Dalio stating that debt demand is unlikely to keep pace with supply [5] - The Federal Reserve faces a difficult choice between allowing interest rates to rise, risking a debt default crisis, or printing money to purchase unwanted debt, both of which could damage the dollar [5]

Group 1 - Ray Dalio compares the current political and social climate in the U.S. to the global situation of the 1930s and 1940s, highlighting issues such as wealth disparity and a collapse of trust driving extreme policies [1][2] - Dalio emphasizes that Wall Street investors are largely silent about Trump's policies due to fear of retaliation, despite growing private concerns [2][3] - The intervention of the Trump administration in the private sector, particularly the acquisition of a 10% stake in Intel, is seen as a manifestation of "strong authoritarian leadership" [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are raised, particularly following Trump's dismissal of a Fed official, which could undermine confidence in the Fed's ability to maintain currency value [3][4] - International investors are reportedly shifting from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold, reflecting worries about the stability of the dollar system [3][4] - Dalio predicts a debt crisis in the U.S. within approximately three years, driven by a significant fiscal imbalance where annual spending is around $7 trillion against $5 trillion in revenue [4]

另外，关于下一任美联储主席的遴选，美国财长贝森特在最新的讲话中透露，美联储主席的"几位"候选人还是填补央行 理事会两个空缺席位的人选。他和美国总统特朗普已经"详细讨论了候选人应是什么样的人以及他们的资格"。 美联储9月降息概率升至8 9.6% 当前市场对美联储降息预期正持续升温。截至北京时间9月2日 上午 ，芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察（FedWatch）工具 显示，美联储9月降息25个基点的概率已升至89.6%，维持利率不变的概率降至10.4%；美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为 4.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为47.3%，累计降息50个基点的概率为47.9%。 受此影响，美东时间9月1日，美元指数持续走弱并再度跌破98，白银现货价格持续拉升，突破40美元/盎司大关，创造 2011年以来新高，日内涨幅超过2%；黄金价格也实现五连涨，一度涨1.2%、接近历史高位3500美元附近。 美联储降息预期飙升。 华尔街交易员正大举押注美联储将在9月议息会议上降息25个基点。截至北京时间9月2日 上午 ，芝加哥商品交易所的美 联储观察（FedWatch）工具显示，美联储9月降息25个基点的概率已升至89.6%。 受此影 ...

Group 1 - Ray Dalio warns that the U.S. is gradually falling into a style of authoritarian politics reminiscent of the 1930s, driven by wealth disparity, value conflicts, and a collapse of trust [1][2] - Dalio highlights that government intervention in the private sector, such as Trump's 10% stake in Intel, represents a form of strong authoritarian leadership aimed at controlling financial and economic situations [1][5] - International investors are beginning to shift from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold due to concerns over the sustainability of U.S. debt and fiscal policies [4] Group 2 - Dalio expresses concerns that the U.S. economy is on the brink of a debt crisis due to unsustainable debt growth and significant budget deficits, predicting a potential economic "heart attack" within three years [4] - The U.S. government currently spends approximately $7 trillion annually while generating only $5 trillion in revenue, leading to skepticism about the reliability of U.S. Treasury bonds as a wealth storage tool [4] - Dalio critiques the increasing control of the government over the central bank and corporations, indicating a trend towards stronger governmental oversight during periods of high conflict and risk [5][6]