Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong resurgence of gold's financial attributes, driven by factors such as real interest rates, the US dollar index, and regional situations, with gold prices reaching historical highs of $4,960 per ounce and silver surpassing $97 per ounce [1] - The World Gold Council reported that in 2025, gold prices set records 53 times, with global gold ETF inflows reaching $89 billion and total holdings climbing to a historical high of 4,025 tons, indicating a continuous influx of funds driving up the value of gold assets [1] - Silver is positioned as an essential raw material in three key sectors: solar photovoltaic, automotive and electric vehicles, and data centers and artificial intelligence, supporting its core role in future industrial transformations [1] Group 2 - As of January 23, 2026, the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) rose by 1.86%, with component stocks such as silver and gold companies showing significant gains, including a 9.97% increase in silver stocks and a 7.02% rise in Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [2] - The National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the nonferrous metals sector, based on a sample of 50 securities with notable scale and liquidity, providing a benchmark for industry investment [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index as of December 31, 2025, include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Northern Rare Earth, collectively accounting for 51.65% of the index [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures may face pressure, stock index futures' volatility center may gradually rise, and precious metals' market volatility may increase. Different commodity futures have different trends and investment suggestions based on their own fundamentals and market conditions [5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.07%, 0.05%, 0.04%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **Open Market Operation**: On January 22, the central bank conducted 210.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 30.9 billion yuan [5]. - **Policy Expectation**: The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [5]. - **Outlook**: Treasury bond futures may face certain pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 0.19%, - 0.51%, 0.53%, and 0.91% respectively [8]. - **Analysis**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong and corporate profit growth is at a low level, domestic asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently. It is expected that the volatility center of stock index futures will gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 1,087.58 with a decrease of 0.43%, and the silver main contract closed at 23,339 with an increase of 0.90% [10]. - **Analysis**: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is expected that market volatility will increase significantly, and long positions can be liquidated and wait and see [10][11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [12]. - **Analysis**: In the medium term, the prices of finished products are dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the inventory is slightly higher than last year. It is expected that the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil will continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were reported [14]. - **Analysis**: The demand for iron ore has decreased month - on - month, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened. Technically, it shows signs of stabilizing after a decline. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly [16]. - **Analysis**: The production of domestic coking coal is stable, and the demand from downstream coking enterprises has increased. However, the demand for coke has decreased due to the decline in iron - making production. Technically, it may continue to be weak in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels and manage positions carefully [17][18]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main contracts of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon rose by 0.48% and 0.94% respectively. The spot prices also changed [19]. - **Analysis**: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the production of ferroalloys has declined, and the demand is weak. The overall over - supply pressure continues. The cost is at a low level, and the downward space is limited. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil opened higher and oscillated, closing above the 5 - day moving average [20]. - **Analysis**: Speculators have turned to hold net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs has declined, and the US is expanding Chevron's oil production license in Venezuela. The market is concerned about the over - supply pattern. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [20][21][22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward, closing above the moving average group [23]. - **Analysis**: The import of fuel oil in Asia from the West has increased, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is in good condition. The price has risen due to increased downstream demand after the holidays and expected pre - Spring Festival demand. It is recommended to wait and see for the main fuel oil contract [24][25]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market showed a rising trend, and the Yuyao LLDPE market adjusted prices [26]. - **Analysis**: The开工 rate has declined due to low - temperature and labor shortages, but the demand for modified PP in high - end manufacturing fields is growing steadily. The profit of external - propylene - purchasing enterprises has recovered, but PDH is still in deep losses. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main synthetic rubber contract rose by 4.50%, and the Shandong mainstream price increased [28]. - **Analysis**: The rise in the synthetic rubber market is supported by the increase in butadiene prices and high device operation rates, but weak downstream demand limits the increase. It is expected to be mainly in a strong - oscillation pattern [28][29][30]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main natural rubber contracts and 20 - grade rubber contracts rose, and the Shanghai spot price increased [31]. - **Analysis**: The domestic rubber - tapping season is coming to an end, the demand for raw materials has increased, and the demand from downstream tire enterprises has improved. However, the inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern [31][32]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main PVC contract rose by 2.21%, and the spot price increased [33]. - **Analysis**: In the short term, it is the traditional off - season for PVC, but the market may oscillate strongly under policy expectations. In the medium term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. It is recommended to be cautious due to the uncertainty of demand [33][34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main urea contract rose by 1.30%, and the Shandong Linyi price increased [35]. - **Analysis**: In the short term, urea prices will maintain a strong - oscillation pattern, driven by export demand and cost support. The daily production is expected to remain high, and the demand from the compound fertilizer industry is increasing, while the demand from the board industry is decreasing [35][36]. p - Xylene (PX) - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PX2603 main contract rose by 2.13%. The PXN spread and short - process profit are stable [37]. - **Analysis**: The PX operating rate has declined, and the cost of crude oil may provide support. In the short term, it may oscillate and adjust. Investors can participate in the range and pay attention to external crude oil fluctuations and macro - policy changes [37][38]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose by 2.75% [39]. - **Analysis**: The PTA processing fee has adjusted to the average level of previous years, and the upward space may be limited. The supply has not changed much recently, and the demand has decreased seasonally. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a slight inventory build - up in January and February. Investors should operate carefully and pay attention to oil - price changes [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract rose by 4.51% [40]. - **Analysis**: The supply has decreased slightly due to increased domestic and foreign device maintenance, but the port inventory is under pressure, and the pre - arrival volume has increased significantly. It is expected to have pressure on the price in January and February. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [40][41]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2603 main contract rose by 2.31% [42]. - **Analysis**: The supply of short - fiber remains at a relatively high level, and the sales have improved. The terminal factories are mainly consuming raw - material inventories. The low inventory may provide support at the bottom. It is expected to follow the cost - end logic and oscillate. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and pre - holiday stocking by downstream enterprises [42]. Bottle - Grade PET - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the bottle - grade PET 2603 main contract rose by 3.39%, and the processing fee has recovered [43]. - **Analysis**: The production load of bottle - grade PET has slightly decreased, and there are plans for concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic is still the cost end. It is expected to follow the cost - end oscillation. Investors should participate carefully, control risks, and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [43][44]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 soda ash contract closed at 1185 yuan/ton, rising 1.46% [45]. - **Analysis**: The supply - demand pattern of soda ash remains loose, and the price is stable. The production has decreased slightly, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The downstream demand is average. It shows obvious off - season characteristics. It is recommended to be cautious as the market lacks substantial support in the short term [45][46]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 glass contract closed at 1057 yuan/ton, rising 0.67% [47]. - **Analysis**: The supply - demand pattern of glass remains loose. The number of production lines remains unchanged, the inventory has increased, and the sales of enterprises have slowed down. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival [47][48][49]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2603 caustic soda contract closed at 1948 yuan/ton, falling 0.51% [50]. - **Analysis**: Caustic soda shows obvious winter seasonal characteristics, with sufficient supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The market is in a weak state, and the outlook is not optimistic [50]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main 2605 pulp contract closed at 5380 yuan/ton, rising 0.34% [51]. - **Analysis**: The inventory of pulp has continued to accumulate, and the spot trading is light. The prices of coniferous and broad - leaved pulp have declined. The downstream procurement is coming to an end, and the market sentiment is pessimistic [51]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 2.55% to 168,780 yuan/ton [52]. - **Analysis**: The macro - liquidity has increased, and the supply of lithium carbonate is still high, while the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. The inventory has decreased, and the price has support at the bottom. However, the short - term volatility may increase [52]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai copper contract closed at 100,270 yuan/ton, falling 0.43% [53]. - **Analysis**: The inflation in the US is still high, the international situation is tense, and the supply of copper is extremely tight. However, the high price has suppressed the actual demand, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The price is supported in the long term but restricted in the short term. The current risk is relatively high [53][54]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 24,070 yuan/ton, rising 0.21%, and the main alumina contract closed at 2729 yuan/ton, rising 1.15% [55]. - **Analysis**: The supply of bauxite is abundant, the production of alumina is in excess, and the production of electrolytic aluminum is approaching the ceiling. The demand is suppressed in the short term, and the inventory has increased. It is recommended to short alumina on rallies before the Spring Festival. The long - term outlook for aluminum prices is still optimistic, but there may be a short - term correction [55][56]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai zinc contract closed at 24,530 yuan/ton, rising 0.74% [58]. - **Analysis**: The supply of zinc raw materials is tight, the processing fee is under pressure, and the consumption will weaken seasonally. The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price may decline under pressure [58][59]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai lead contract closed at 17,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [60]. - **Analysis**: The supply of lead is restricted by the shortage of raw materials, and the demand is differentiated. The low inventory of primary lead provides support, while the off - season demand restricts the upward space. It is expected to oscillate within a range [60][61]. Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai tin contract rose by 1.7% to 417,250 yuan/ton [62]. - **Analysis**: The supply of tin is tight due to geopolitical conflicts and slow production recovery. The demand shows certain resilience supported by emerging fields. The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to risk control [62]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main Shanghai nickel contract rose by 0.28% to 142,730 yuan/ton [63]. - **Analysis**: The macro - situation and Indonesian policies have affected the nickel market. The cost of nickel production is expected to rise, but the demand from the stainless - steel industry is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The market is in an over - supply situation, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [63]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, the main soybean meal contract rose by 1.50% to 2768 yuan/ton, and the main soybean oil contract rose by 0.55% to 8084 yuan/ton. The spot prices also changed [64]. - **Analysis**: The import of soybeans has slowed down, the oil - mill crushing is in loss, and the cost support has decreased. The demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - cost support levels and consider exiting long positions for soybean oil on rallies [64][65]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil has reached a two - month high. The export of palm oil products in Malaysia has increased, and the production has decreased [66]. - **Analysis**: The production of palm oil may decline, the demand is strong, and the inventory in China is at a medium level. Investors can consider long - position opportunities after a correction [66][67][68]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed has little change, and the import of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal in China has changed [69]. - **Analysis**: China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has increased. Investors can consider holding positions to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [69][70]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton rebounded slightly, and the external - market cotton fluctuated [71]. - **Analysis**: The USDA supply - demand report is favorable to the market. The domestic cotton production is high, but the inventory build

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the world will be in a macro - background of deepening "de - globalization" and the resonance of loose fiscal policies of major economies. Supply - chain vulnerability and demand expansion will lead to a tightening of resource supply - demand relations, and intensify strategic competition for key minerals and energy [1]. - China's economy will be based on the principle of "internal stability and external control" in 2026. Exports will remain a mainstay, investment will play a supporting role, and consumption will focus on equipment updates and service - scenario innovation. The de - dollarization trend and the weakening of the US dollar credit will bring opportunities for international capital inflows into RMB assets, and Sino - US competition will focus on technology and supply - chain security [1]. - In 2026, a macro - hedging portfolio should be constructed under the premise of seeking certainty. Commodity assets will have prominent allocation value, with the order of commodity > equity > bond. Attention should be paid to potential uncertainties such as recessions in Europe and the US, domestic inflation repair, geopolitics, and real - estate risks [2]. Summary by Directory I. Cycle Changes: Resonance of "De - globalization" and Loose Fiscal Policies (1) The Wave of De - globalization: From Great - Power Games to the G2 Pattern - International events such as the COVID - 19 pandemic, the Russia - Ukraine war, and the Trump administration's high - tariff policies have led to the wave of de - globalization, which is essentially the reshaping of the world order [6]. - Traditional capitalist powers like the US and the UK are withdrawing from international alliances, while emerging - market countries led by China are exploring new international cooperation models. A G2 competition pattern between China and the US is gradually taking shape in key technologies and resources [7]. - The wave of de - globalization has increased the vulnerability of the global supply chain, deteriorated the global trade environment, and accelerated the rotation and increased the volatility of global major assets. The credit systems of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds have been shaken [9]. (2) Loose Fiscal Resonance: Upward Global Manufacturing and Inventory Cycles - In 2026, the fiscal policies of major overseas economies such as the US, Europe, and Japan are expected to expand further. The US "big and beautiful" bill may increase the fiscal deficit by $4.1 trillion in the next decade, and EU countries will increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Japan will implement a trillion - level economic stimulus plan. This will lead to an increase in economic activity demand and drive up the global manufacturing and inventory cycles [15]. (3) Resource Shortage: Tightening Supply - Demand Balance - De - globalization has increased supply - chain vulnerability, and loose fiscal policies will stimulate demand, leading to a tightening of the global industrial supply - demand relationship. Countries will pay more attention to resource competition for national security. The US is seizing resources through trade control and military actions. Core resources such as minerals and energy will see price increases in 2026 [16]. II. The Game between Endogenous Momentum and External Changes (1) Endogenous Economic Transformation: Long - Term Policy Guidance of the 15th Five - Year Plan - In 2026, as the starting year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, China aims to achieve a reasonable GDP growth rate while gradually realizing structural transformation. New - quality productivity sectors such as AI, biomedicine, and new energy will become new pillar industries [17]. - Investment will be the supporting force for achieving economic growth goals, while consumption will be the main growth driver. Exports will remain a mainstay due to factors such as reduced Sino - US trade - dispute volatility, fiscal expansion in developed economies, and the rise of emerging markets. Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and new areas will support economic growth, and real - estate's negative impact on the economy is expected to turn neutral [18][19][23]. - In the consumption area, policies will focus on releasing existing demand through subsidies and exploring incremental demand by expanding service - consumption scenarios [27]. (2) External Changes and Game: Coexistence of Challenges and Opportunities - The weakening of the US dollar credit due to the expiration of the "petro - dollar" agreement and the establishment of a new cross - border settlement mechanism provides an opportunity for RMB assets. International capital will flow back to the Asia - Pacific market and drive up the prices of RMB - denominated assets. China can promote RMB internationalization [30]. - Sino - US relations will remain a key variable in 2026. The two countries have long - term competition and phased balance in technology and resource issues. The competition pattern will not change significantly, and extreme decoupling is unlikely [31]. III. Guidance on Major Asset Allocation: Constructing a Macro - Hedging Portfolio (1) Between "Change and Constancy": Unchanging Competition Relations and Changing Cycle Rotations - The long - term competition exists among all global economies due to limited resources and growing economic demand. China's economic recovery has three main lines: technological independence, price repair, and expansion of domestic demand. The US will try to avoid recession and stagflation, and continue to rely on the stock market and AI to support the economy [33]. (2) 2026: Seeking Certainty and Constructing a Major Asset Portfolio: Commodity > Equity > Bond - In 2026, asset allocation should pursue certainty and balance risks. Attention should be paid to risks such as recessions in Europe and the US, slow domestic inflation repair, intensified de - globalization, and a downward real - estate market [36]. (3) Grasping the Rhythm and Main Lines in the Short, Medium, and Long Terms - Based on economic - cycle theory, in the high - inflation and high - growth stage (2026 - 2027 expected), commodities will be dominant. Different commodity sectors will rotate in the order of risk pricing, expected trading, and real - situation regression [37]. - In 2026, the four quarters will be dominated by different factors: Q1 is dominated by short - term liquidity, driving up the prices of precious metals and non - ferrous metals; Q2 focuses on correcting the mid - term narrative; Q3 verifies the long - term logic; Q4 is for brewing cross - year expectations [39].

去美元化加速，警惕 美元指数下行风险 华泰期货研究院 2026年01月23日 蔡劭立 F3063489 Z0014617 联系人： 朱思谋 F03142856 — 量价和政策信号— 2 【量价观察】美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率上升 ◆3个月的美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率曲线显示出人民币的升值趋势，Put端波动率仍高于Call端，Put端波动率整体下 降 美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率 Delta为5的美元兑人民币3个月期权隐含波动率 数据来源： 3 Bloomberg Wind 华泰期货研究院 2 3 4 5 6 3M 2026/01/22 3M 2025/12/26 3M 2025/09/30 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2024-01 2024-07 2025-01 2025-07 2026-01 20260121（%） 20260114（%） 20251224（%） 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 一月 三月 六月 一年 本周新交所美元兑人民币期货升贴水(-) 本周银行远期升贴水(-) 本周美中利差 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 一月 三月 六月 一年 上周新交所美元兑人民币期货升 ...

Core Insights - Domestic gold price reached 1104.52 CNY per gram, up 1.53% [1] - International gold price reported at 4960.0 USD per ounce, up 0.95% [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold price surpassed historical high, driven by a weakening dollar; spot gold reached 4955 USD per ounce, with a weekly increase of nearly 8% [3] - Strong resilience in the U.S. job market and consumer sector enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 from 4900 USD to 5400 USD, citing diversification in gold holdings to hedge global policy risks [4] - Central banks are expected to purchase an average of 60 tons of gold monthly in 2026, with a stable demand for gold ETFs due to anticipated Fed rate cuts [4] - The current gold price increase is supported by weakening dollar credit and geopolitical risks, alongside a trend of "buying gold instead of U.S. debt" among multiple countries [4]

现货黄金首次突破4800美元/盎司并触及4835.28美元新高，带动国内金饰零售价格快速上调，周大福、老凤祥等足金普遍逼近1500元/克，部分门店单日上调 逾40元并出现"抢购"，黄金股与上海金ETF资金净流入显著。金价上行由地缘风险、央行持续购金、去美元化与降息预期共振推动，高位波动与回撤风险亦 在累积，消费者需重视渠道价差与回收折价。 一、金价创历史新高，零售端一天一换价签 现货黄金上破4800美元/盎司，盘中最高至4835.28美元，国际价格急涨迅速传导至国内零售端，多家金店集中调价。 三、资金与股市同步升温 金价上行带动相关资产走强，A股与港股黄金板块多只个股大幅上涨，部分标的盘中创阶段新高，资金面也给出佐证：截至1月21日，上海金ETF整体出现明 显净流入，广发上海金ETF近四日净流入约18.54亿元，富国、建信等产品分别吸金8.06亿元、3.02亿元，四日合计净流入约32.90亿元。 与实物零售的热度相对应，投资者通过ETF等工具加仓，成为推动行情的重要增量资金来源之一。 四、央行购金与"去美元化"共同发力 推动本轮黄金上行的核心因素来自多线共振： 地缘政治不确定性抬升避险需求：贸易摩擦、地区局势 ...

Economic Outlook for 2026 - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for "qualitative effective improvement and reasonable quantitative growth" in China's economy for 2026 [1] - The market is expected to present various trends and highlights, creating investment opportunities for investors [1] Monetary Policy and Credit Growth - Current domestic interest rates are at historical lows, with potential for further reduction; a small cut of 0.25-0.5 percentage points is likely in early 2026 [4] - Credit growth is expected to recover moderately, with structural characteristics; personal loans may see marginal improvement, while corporate loans will be the main support [4][5] - Total new credit is projected to be around 18 trillion yuan, with a slight increase in credit balance growth to 6.6% [5] Stock Market Trends - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are anticipated to continue a trend of oscillating upward, driven by corporate profit improvement and macro policy easing [7] - Policies to boost market confidence will include promoting the use of policy tools, guiding institutional investments, and optimizing listing conditions for tech companies [7] Bond Market Expectations - The bond market is expected to maintain a low-interest, high-volatility environment, with 10-year government bond yields projected between 1.6% and 1.9% [8] - Credit bond issuance is expected to grow steadily, particularly in short-duration high-grade credit bonds, with yields anticipated between 2.0% and 2.5% [8] Investment Opportunities in Emerging Industries - Future technology innovation policies will focus on breakthroughs in key areas such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, and biomanufacturing [9] - The semiconductor sector is expected to see significant growth driven by AI, while new energy and quantum technology are also highlighted as areas of potential investment [9] Global Economic Trends - The global economic landscape is transitioning from "high volatility" to "new equilibrium," with significant geopolitical and economic challenges ahead [10] - The U.S. stock market is expected to enter a phase of "high valuation, weak growth, and strong differentiation," with potential risks in AI sector valuations [10] Currency and Commodity Outlook - The RMB is likely to appreciate in a dual-directional fluctuation, supported by various domestic economic factors [11] - Gold prices are expected to experience "high-level fluctuations" with a target range of $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce, while silver may see more volatility due to its industrial properties [12][13]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 核心观点： 风险提示： 1)美国经济超预期回落，通胀超预期回升；2)全球地缘政治风险超预期，俄乌危机、巴以冲突 等升级；3)国内经济超预期下行，政策出台力度不及预期；4)中美关税摩擦进一步升级。 发布日期：2026-01-21 免责声明 本订阅号是光大证券股份有限公司研究所（以下简称"光大证券研究所"）依法设立、独立运营的官方唯一订阅号。其他任 何以光大证券研究所名义注册的、或含有"光大证券研究"、与光大证券研究所品牌名称等相关信息的订阅号均不是光大证 券研究所的官方订阅号。 1月30日的两党临时预算截止日期将近，美国政府将再次面临停摆考验，但我们认为本轮"关门"风险明显 低于2025年，一季度美国经济数据仍有支撑。 原因一： ...

Group 1 - The core concern is the potential impact of U.S. President Trump's policies on the international status of the dollar, with warnings from Morgan Stanley about the risks of de-dollarization due to U.S. actions in debt, trade, and national security [1][2] - The international price of gold has doubled in the past 18 months, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards alternatives to the dollar, as foreign central banks now hold approximately $4 trillion in gold, surpassing U.S. Treasury holdings of $3.9 trillion for the first time since 1996 [1] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies is accelerating the global movement towards alternatives to the dollar, as highlighted by the actions of various investors and funds [1] Group 2 - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, expressed concerns that Trump's actions could lead to a "capital war," prompting countries to sell off dollar assets, which could undermine U.S. credibility and complicate financing for the U.S. fiscal deficit [2] - The Danish pension fund AkademikerPension plans to sell all of its U.S. Treasury holdings, approximately $100 million, due to concerns over the U.S. government's financial stability, reflecting a broader trend of caution among foreign investors [2] - The reliance of the U.S. on foreign investors for debt financing has been highlighted as a critical vulnerability, especially in the context of ongoing trade disputes [2]

此外，李世杰补充表示，人民币升值预期持续强化也是重要催化因素。2025年12月人民币汇率逼近7.0 关口，进入2026年后在岸人民币已升至6.96附近，全年累计涨幅明显。在此背景下，国际业务占比较高 的企业出于降低外币敞口风险、锁定汇兑收益的考虑，主动推动结汇操作。同时，美元走弱预期升温、 美联储降息周期预期延续，也在外部环境层面放大了这一行为。 兴业研究高级研究员张梦也指出，年末净结汇走高具有明显的季节性特征。每年年末本身是传统的结汇 高峰期，而2025年11月下旬至12月美元兑人民币连续突破7.10、7.05、7.00等关键点位，强化了市场的 升值预期，并触及部分企业的成本汇率或盈亏平衡汇率，从而显著放大了客盘结汇量。 日前，广发证券发布研报显示，2025年12月净结汇创历史新高。12月银行代客净结汇7055亿元，环比、 同比分别上升5891亿元、7806亿元。 分析人士指出，人民币在2025年12月后呈现加快升值态势，是推动企业和个人加快结汇的重要直接因 素。在人民币持续升值背景下，若延迟结汇，外汇资产折算为人民币时将面临更明显的价值缩水，因此 相关主体倾向于提前将外汇兑换为人民币。 汇管信息科技研究院 ...