Employment Market Overview - The unemployment rate in the U.S. fell to 4.4% in December, better than the expected 4.5%[6] - The unemployment rate for November was revised down to 4.5%, interrupting the previous upward trend[6] - The U6 unemployment rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 8.4%, indicating reduced pressure on marginally employed groups[10] Job Creation and Market Conditions - Non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs in December, falling short of the market expectation of 65,000[19] - Job additions for October and November were revised down by a total of 76,000, with October's figures adjusted from -105,000 to -173,000[19] - The average weekly hours worked decreased to 34.2 hours, while average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, slightly above the expected 3.6%[13] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve has room to pause interest rate cuts in January, with a current market expectation of only a 5% probability for a rate cut[26] - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, now pushed to June and September[26] Risks and Considerations - Political pressure from Trump could further threaten the independence of the Federal Reserve[27]

正如我们之前提到的，中低收入人群在总量高增的环境中不仅没有收益，还在恶化，通胀和就业数据在美国"稳增长，稳就业，保民生"的政策落地前很 难反转。 SHMET 网讯： 数据公布之前，市场普遍存在对通胀度数反弹的担忧，但最后看来只是虚惊一场。12月美国CPI的表现可谓是给市场吃下了一颗"定心丸"。不同于11月 数据受政府停摆、数据估算方法、假日促销等多重因素干扰，12月CPI的统计过程逐步回归常态，数据的质量有所提升，因此通胀环比增速的回升也在意料 之中。但整体回升幅度依然不高，尤其是核心CPI环比增速仅0.2%，明显低于预期的0.3%，此外CPI和核心CPI同比增速均持平前值，并未有进一步的走强， 这也出乎市场预料。 对于美联储而言，12月CPI数据虽不足以改变1月底维持利率不变的决策，但无疑会进一步放大内部的鸽派声音。连续两个月的通胀不及预期，可能会 扭转部分"鹰"派官员的看法，促使政策制定者重新审视2026年的降息路径。当前点阵图中值显示2026年仅1次降息，若后续通胀数据能延续当前的低速增长 态势，叠加就业市场边际走弱的信号，有助于美联储推进更多次数的降息。 从市场影响来看，我们此前提到，11月通胀数据的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver has emerged as a strong investment opportunity in early 2026, with significant price increases and investor profits, particularly highlighted by the performance of companies like Qifu Life Services [1][6]. Group 1: Silver Price Performance - As of January 14, 2026, the spot silver price reached a high of $91.531 per ounce, breaking through key resistance levels of $90 and $91 [1]. - Year-to-date, silver has seen a maximum increase of 28%, and since 2025, the total increase exceeds 210% [1][6]. - The price surge is attributed to changing market dynamics and expectations of earlier interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, following a reported 2.7% year-on-year increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 [6]. Group 2: Company Investment Activities - Qifu Life Services announced the completion of transactions involving 40,000 ounces of silver, generating a profit of approximately 1.43 billion yuan, and subsequently sold an additional 28,000 ounces for about 1.62 billion yuan, with an average selling price of 577.5 yuan per ounce [3][4]. - The company began its silver investment in 2020, purchasing 800,000 ounces at an average cost of 128.75 yuan per ounce, and has strategically managed its holdings to realize profits despite earlier losses [3][4]. - Following the recent sales, Qifu Life Services reported a net profit of 2.47 billion yuan from its silver investments, indicating a successful exit strategy amid rising prices [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook and New Products - Citigroup forecasts that silver prices could reach $100 per ounce within the next three months, driven by strong demand and market conditions [6]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) plans to launch a new 100-ounce silver futures contract on February 9, 2026, to cater to increasing retail demand and provide easier access to the silver market [7][8]. - The new contract aims to enhance market participation by allowing traders to control larger positions with lower capital requirements, thus improving liquidity and efficiency in trading [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Platinum: ★☆☆, implying a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Palladium: ★☆★, showing a relatively stronger bullish bias [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall precious metals market remains prone to rising and difficult to fall. Gold and silver continue their breakthrough trends, while the volatility of platinum and palladium has decreased, with the potential to challenge previous highs [1] - The 12 - month unadjusted CPI annual rate in the US remained flat at 2.7% in December, in line with expectations, and the core CPI was 2.6%, slightly lower than expected. Trump criticized Powell again, calling for significant interest rate cuts [1] - The situation in Iran is highly tense. Trump has cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials. The EU is discussing additional sanctions against Iran, and Vance is scheduled to meet with the national security team this morning to formulate a strategy against Iran [1][2] - The "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos said that the December CPI is unlikely to change the Fed's current wait - and - see attitude. To resume interest rate cuts, Fed officials may need to see new evidence of deteriorating labor market conditions or weakening price pressures [2] - In the four weeks ending December 20, 2025, private - sector employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week according to the ADP weekly employment report [2] 3. Summaries by Related Content Macroeconomic Data - US December unadjusted CPI annual rate remained flat at 2.7%, in line with expectations; core CPI was 2.6%, slightly lower than expected [1] - In the four weeks ending December 20, 2025, private - sector employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week [2] Fed's Attitude - The 12 - month CPI is unlikely to change the Fed's current wait - and - see attitude. To resume interest rate cuts, Fed officials may need to see new evidence of deteriorating labor market conditions or weakening price pressures, which may require at least a few more months of inflation data [2] Geopolitical Situation - The situation in Iran is highly tense. Trump has cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials. The EU is discussing additional sanctions against Iran, and Vance is scheduled to meet with the national security team this morning to formulate a strategy against Iran [1][2] Precious Metals Market - Precious metals are generally prone to rising and difficult to fall. Gold and silver continue their breakthrough trends, while the volatility of platinum and palladium has decreased, with the potential to challenge previous highs. Attention is focused on US PPI and retail sales data tonight [1]

历史数据数据看，美国10月核心CPI年率缺失，11月份为2.6%，显著低于9月份的3%，通胀率有回归至 2%温和通胀标准的可能。纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯表示："通胀方面的上行风险则有所降 低"，依据是10月份和11月份的CPI数据下降。如果12月份CPI数据如预期的2.7%，意味着通胀下降是市 场行为，而非政府停摆导致。 美联储在2025年降息3次，每次25基点。2026年降息次数以及首次降息月份，依赖于通胀数据的表现。 如果12月份CPI数据保持稳定，1月份美联储再次降息的概率将显著下降。根据CME美联储观察的模 型，1月降息25个基点的概率为5.0%，维持利率不变的概率为95.0%。据此可知，交易人士也认为，美 国的经济数据不会在利率决议前出现超预期变化。 ▲ATFX图 专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月14日，今日21：30，美国劳工统计局将公布12月CPI数据，该数据是美联储研判美国通胀走向的核 心依据。10月份和11月份的CPI数据均受到美国政府停摆的影响，12月份是首个不受政府停摆影响的月 份，更能揭示美国真实的物价表现。 12月名义CPI年率的前值为2.7%，预期值2.7%，预期持平。1 ...

Overview - In December 2025, the overall CPI in the U.S. was 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, meeting expectations, while the core CPI was slightly weaker at 2.6% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 2.7% and 0.3% respectively[1][5]. - The market's reaction to the CPI data was muted, with a slight increase in "rate cut trades" following the announcement, but overall performance remained stable[1][5]. Inflation Structure - Core goods inflation in December weakened significantly, primarily due to vehicle inflation, with new and used car prices showing 0% and -1.1% month-on-month changes respectively[2][15]. - Core services inflation saw a rebound, particularly in rent and super core services, with rent CPI increasing by 0.4% month-on-month in December, up from 0.2% in September[2][15]. Economic Outlook - In the first half of 2026, U.S. inflation may remain "sticky," but a "disinflation" phase is expected in the second half as tax cuts take effect, potentially boosting consumer income and spending[3][27]. - The Federal Reserve's rate cut timing may be delayed, as inflation is not currently the primary concern, and any rate cuts will depend on economic data showing significant weakness[3][27]. Risks - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the U.S. economy, and the Federal Reserve adopting a more hawkish stance if inflation proves more resilient than anticipated[3][39].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Justice has initiated a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony regarding office renovations, adding uncertainty to monetary policy outlook, although market reactions have been relatively calm [2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Market response to the investigation has been muted, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rising only about 2 basis points [2]. - This contrasts sharply with last summer's market volatility when President Trump suggested he might dismiss Powell, leading to a significant yield increase of 8 basis points on July 11 and 11 basis points on July 16 [2]. - The probability of Powell leaving the Federal Reserve Board by the end of the year has decreased from 83% to 57% according to Polymarket data [2]. Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - The investigation may embolden hawkish members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), complicating the prospects for a more dovish stance from the next Federal Reserve Chair [3]. - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hold a hearing on January 21 regarding a case involving Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which may have significant implications for future policy direction [3]. - A negative ruling against Cook could increase the risk of Powell facing removal [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Recent lower-than-expected inflation data has raised market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with traders anticipating a cut at the June policy meeting, though the likelihood of a cut in January remains low [3]. - The health of the job market will be crucial in determining whether further rate cuts are necessary, as evidenced by the unexpected drop in the U.S. unemployment rate in December [4]. - Major Wall Street banks, including Morgan Stanley, Barclays, and Citigroup, have pushed back their rate cut predictions to late 2026, while JPMorgan no longer expects a cut in 2026 and anticipates a rate hike in 2027 [4].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have shown strong performance recently, reaching new highs before experiencing a slight pullback, influenced by surrounding market trends and domestic stock performance [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent increase in copper prices is supported by a significant drop in LME copper registered warehouse receipts, which decreased by 25,000 tons to 89,725 tons, the lowest level since mid-July [1] - Non-US inventories remain low, providing support for copper prices despite a recent increase in LME copper inventory [1] - The overall market sentiment in domestic futures and stock markets has been optimistic, contributing to the upward movement in copper prices [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The release of moderate US inflation data for December has led to market speculation that the Federal Reserve may maintain its current interest rates in January, supporting expectations for future rate cuts [1] - The potential for the US to impose tariffs on refined copper continues to create a siphoning effect on global copper supplies, with increased exports of refined copper from China in the past two months [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Jinrui Futures, the underlying logic for copper prices remains largely unchanged, with expectations of tight supply not being reversed, and recent disturbances in copper mining have intensified concerns about supply [1] - The overall trend for copper prices is expected to remain strong with potential fluctuations, although there is a short-term risk related to the US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariff policy [1]

隔夜，现货黄金一度触及4634.33美元的历史新高，但随后迅速回落，收盘仅稳定在4586美元附近。今日欧市盘中，黄金延续涨势，一度涨至4639.39美 元，再创历史新高，目前在4637美元附近徘徊。 白银，又爆了，1月14日，现货白银价格继续攀升，盘中站上90美元，续创历史新高。CompaniesMarketCap数据显示，目前白银市值已突破5万亿美元，超 过芯片巨头英伟达4.52万亿美元的市值。 特朗普炮轰鲍威尔！ 隔夜，美股三大指数集体收跌，截至收盘，道指跌0.8%，报49191.99点；标普500指数跌0.19%，报6963.74点；纳指跌0.1%，报23709.87点。 消息面上，美国通胀数据影响显著上行，市场押注美联储提前降息。 当地时间1月13日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，2025年12月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，与前月涨幅持平，但高于市场预期。剔除 波动较大的食品和能源价格后，2025年12月核心CPI环比增长0.2%，经季节性调整前同比增长2.6%。 经济学家认为，一个月前公布的11月通胀数据可能被"人为压低"。他们提醒说，本次公布的12月数据可能会对11月被低估的部分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic zinc market has experienced a significant price increase, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Today's Shanghai zinc futures showed a strong oscillation, with the main contract opening at 24,560 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 24,855 CNY/ton, and closing at 24,475 CNY/ton, up 125 CNY, or 0.51% [1]. - The trading volume for the Shanghai zinc 2603 contract increased by 54,828 hands to 243,101 hands, while open interest rose by 8,993 hands to 120,299 hands [1]. - The latest London zinc price reported at 3,218 USD, an increase of 16 USD [1]. Group 2: Price Statistics - The ccmn comprehensive zinc price for 0 zinc reported between 24,550-24,650 CNY/ton, averaging 24,600 CNY, up 260 CNY; 1 zinc ranged from 24,470-24,570 CNY/ton, averaging 24,520 CNY, also up 260 CNY [1]. - In Guangdong, the 0 zinc price was reported between 24,250-24,550 CNY/ton, averaging 24,400 CNY, up 270 CNY; 1 zinc ranged from 24,180-24,480 CNY/ton, averaging 24,330 CNY, also up 270 CNY [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic zinc market is characterized by weak supply and demand; while there is a marginal increase in supply expectations, it limits the rebound potential of zinc prices [3]. - The processing fees for domestic zinc concentrate have generally declined, with northern regions experiencing larger decreases than southern regions [3]. - The import window has opened, leading to increased transactions of imported ore, with processing fees fluctuating between 40-50 USD/dry ton [3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The macroeconomic sentiment is driving market price trends, with surrounding metals contributing to heightened zinc price enthusiasm [3]. - Short-term zinc prices are expected to maintain a strong pattern, with potential testing of key resistance levels [3].