Economic and Market Dynamics - The November Challenger Job Cuts and Hiring Report will be released today, providing timely labor market data ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting next week, despite typically being a secondary data point [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated uncertainty regarding the level to which interest rates can be raised, with a potential increase to 0.75% later this month [3] - In China, government advisors expect the GDP growth target to remain at 5% for 2026, amid deflationary pressures and weak consumer demand, with continued fiscal and monetary stimulus measures anticipated [3] Market Performance - The ADP employment report showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs in November, contrary to expectations of an increase, primarily driven by losses in manufacturing jobs, while service sector employment remained stable [4] - The Eurozone's November composite PMI was revised up to 52.8, indicating robust service sector growth, which supports expectations for the European Central Bank to maintain current policy rates [5] - The UK PMI fell to 51.2 but still exceeded market expectations, indicating continued expansion in the private sector for the seventh consecutive month [5] Fixed Income and Forex Market - The British pound performed well due to the strong PMI data, while the Swiss CPI was below expectations but had little impact on the Swiss franc [8] - The euro strengthened against the US dollar, reaching 1.1670, supported by weak US economic data, while US Treasury and swap rates declined by 2-3 basis points [8]

Key Points - The official manufacturing PMI in China for November is reported at 49.2, slightly up from the previous value of 49, while the non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5, down by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [1][17] - In the U.S., the PPI for September increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with core PPI rising by 0.1%, indicating a notable acceleration in inflation [1][17] - U.S. retail sales for September grew by 0.2% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of positive growth but showing a significant slowdown and falling short of market expectations [1][17] - Durable goods orders in the U.S. for September showed an initial month-on-month increase of 0.5%, a significant deceleration from the revised 3% in the previous month, while core capital goods orders rose by 0.9%, exceeding market expectations of 0.3% [1][17] - Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump discussed the stability and positive direction of U.S.-China relations, emphasizing mutual benefits and cooperation [2][18] - Trump announced significant progress in the peace plan for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with a special envoy set to meet with President Putin to finalize the agreement [3][19] - San Francisco Fed President Daly expressed support for a rate cut in December, citing a greater risk of sudden job market deterioration compared to inflation spikes [3][19] Market Review Futures Market - ICE Brent crude oil rose by 0.61% to $62.32, while COMEX gold increased by 3.36% to $4256.4 [4][22] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 71.36 basis points, with the Chinese yuan appreciating by 341 basis points against the dollar [5][22] Stock Market - The A-share market saw gains, with the ChiNext index rising by 4.54%, the largest increase among major indices, driven by improved risk appetite following the U.S.-China leaders' call [6][23] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 2.53%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 3.77%, reflecting a recovery in risk appetite [7][24] - U.S. stock markets also rebounded, with the Nasdaq index gaining 4.91%, supported by signs of resolution in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increased rate cut expectations [8][25] Bond Market - In the bond market, credit bonds saw an upward trend, with 3Y AAA bonds rising by 5 basis points, while long-term bonds increased more than short-term ones [9][27] - U.S. Treasury yields generally declined, with the 20Y yield down by 5 basis points, influenced by Fed officials' support for a rate cut [10][28] Asset Allocation Perspective - The November PMI data indicates a slight recovery in manufacturing, while the service sector shows signs of contraction, suggesting a bottoming-out phase for the Chinese economy [11][29] - The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has strengthened, with the probability of a December cut rising from 71% to 86% [11][29]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market saw a rise on December 4, with the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.45% to above 5600 points, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.68% to 25935 points, and the National Enterprises Index increased by 0.86% to 9106 points [1] - Major tech stocks contributed to the market's upward movement, with Xiaomi rising over 4%, Meituan increasing over 2%, and Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu also showing gains [1] Sector Highlights - The pharmaceutical sector showed strong performance, particularly in innovative drugs, with companies like Genscript Biotech rising over 11% and WuXi AppTec and WuXi Biologics both increasing over 7% [2] - Semiconductor stocks were active, with SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor both rising over 3%. There are market expectations that Cambricon plans to triple its AI chip production by 2026 [2] Commodity Insights - The market for non-ferrous metals, including gold, copper, and aluminum, experienced a mixed performance, with China Nonferrous Mining falling over 4% and Shandong Gold dropping over 3% [4] - International copper prices reached a historical high, with international copper rising nearly 3% and Shanghai copper and tin both increasing over 2% [4] Copper Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs issued a warning regarding the sustainability of rising copper prices, predicting that prices could stabilize between $10,000 and $11,000 per ton by 2026, with a projected surplus of about 500,000 tons this year [6] - The tight supply situation is a key driver for rising copper prices, supported by expectations of reduced smelting output and a favorable downstream operating rate [5][6]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a shipping daily report dated December 4, 2025, focusing on the container shipping industry, specifically the Container Shipping Index (European Line) [2][4] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - EC2512 closed at 1,649.1, down 4.4 (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 270.0 (down 48.37%) and an open interest of 3,731.0 (down 2.15%) [3] - EC2602 closed at 1,585.0, up 44.9 (2.92%), with a trading volume of 27,304.0 (up 22.44%) and an open interest of 34,222.0 (down 2.25%) [3] - EC2604 closed at 1,090.1, up 7.0 (0.65%), with a trading volume of 2,881.0 (down 12.78%) and an open interest of 19,129.0 (up 0.69%) [3] - EC2606 closed at 1,255.1, up 0.6 (0.05%), with a trading volume of 178.0 (down 53.28%) and an open interest of 2,141.0 (down 1.20%) [3] - EC2608 closed at 1,385.6, up 5.5 (0.40%), with a trading volume of 125 (down 49.39%) and an open interest of 1,549 (down 1.78%) [3] - EC2610 closed at 1,040.2, down 2.0 (-0.19%), with a trading volume of 297 (down 24.81%) and an open interest of 3,961 (up 1.85%) [3] Month - Spread Structure - The spread between EC12 - EC02 was 64, down 49.3; EC12 - EC04 was 559, down 11.4; EC02 - EC04 was 495, up 37.9; etc [3] Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European Line was at 1483.65 points, down 9.50% week - on - week and 47.55% year - on - year [3] - SCFIS US West Line was at 948.77 points, down 14.36% week - on - week and 44.77% year - on - year [3] Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month was at $58.70 per barrel, up 0.38% week - on - week and down 14.12% year - on - year [3] - Brent crude oil near - month was at $62.35 per barrel, up 0.56% week - on - week and down 13.6% year - on - year [3] Group 3: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - In the morning, the futures market declined due to unconfirmed rumors of extra ships, but the market sentiment was boosted by the expected price increase by shipping companies in January. On December 4, EC2512 closed at 1585 points, up 2.92% from the previous day [5] - On November 28, the SCFI European Line was at $1404/TEU, up 2.7% week - on - week. The latest SCFIS European Line released after the market on Monday was at 1483.65 points, down 9.5% week - on - week, slightly lower than market expectations [5] - MSK issued a price increase notice for January after the market today, targeting $2275/3500. Attention should be paid to the price adjustment actions of other shipping companies and the actual implementation of the price increase [5] Logical Analysis - In the spot market, MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam quote in Week 51 was $2400, up $200 week - on - week. It issued a price increase notice for January with a target of $2275/3500 [6] - Some shipping companies have started to announce price increases for the second half of December, with online prices ranging from $2800 - $3500, and there are still price increase expectations for January [6] - In terms of fundamentals, the demand for shipments from December to January is expected to gradually improve. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to 5 Nordic ports in December was 28.32 million TEU, and 29.41/28.05 million TEU in January/February 2026 respectively [6] - Geopolitically, the second - stage peace talks are expected to be tortuous. It is difficult to resume large - scale shipping before the Spring Festival, but the number of return ships via the Suez Canal is expected to gradually increase, and the probability of resuming shipping after the Spring Festival may gradually increase [6] Trading Strategies - For the EC2602 contract, long positions can consider taking profits in batches on rallies, and pay attention to the price increase announcements of shipping companies and the improvement in cargo volume [7] - For the 2 - 4 calendar spread, take profits in batches on rallies [8] Group 4: Industry News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 11% [9] - Maersk currently has no specific timeline to divert the East - West (Gemini) route through the Red Sea [9] - On December 3, Trump said that either the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement would expire, or a new agreement would be reached with Mexico and Canada [10] - On December 3, Hamas strongly condemned the Israeli military's air strikes on displaced people's tents and areas near Kuwait Hospital in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip [10] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as SCFIS European Line Index and SCFIS US West Line Index, SCFI Composite Index, and container freight rates for different routes [13][17][19]

12月4日，港股三大指数再度冲高，恒生科技指数一度涨至2%，最终收涨1.45%重回5600点上方，恒生 指数涨0.68%报25935点，国企指数涨0.86%报9106点。 五矿期货研报认为，地缘层面仍有一定逆风因素，不过市场关注点更多转向美联储议息会议，降息概率 提高使得情绪面偏暖。产业上看铜原料供应维持紧张格局，冶炼减产预期推动铜价走势较强，短期供应 则有边际增加预期，在下游开工率仍有支撑的情况下，铜价有望维持偏强运行。 午后大型科技股集体转涨带动大市冲高，小米涨超4%，美团涨超2%，腾讯、阿里巴巴、百度均上涨。 药品类股集体强势，创新药板块领涨，歌礼制药涨超11%，药明合联、药明生物均涨超7%。 半导体芯片股走势活跃，中芯国际、华虹半导体涨超3%。市场消息称寒武纪计划在2026年将其AI芯片 产量提升到目前的三倍。 机器人概念股普涨，三花智控（002050）涨超7%，地平线机器人涨近7%；消息面上，特斯拉发布 Optimus机器人跑步视频展示运动控制技术突破。 港股黄金、铜、铝等有色金属股多数出现高开低走行情，中国有色矿业跌超4%，山东黄金（600547） 跌超3%。 铜价创下历史新高后，高盛集团对铜价飙 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a weak consolidation below $4200, influenced by rising market risk appetite and a stabilizing dollar, with investors remaining cautious ahead of key inflation data [1][2] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The market sentiment is leaning positive due to a rebound in European and American stock markets, putting pressure on gold prices [1] - The ADP report indicates a decrease of 32,000 jobs, contributing to expectations for looser monetary policy as economic momentum appears to be slowing [2] - The focus is shifting towards the upcoming PCE inflation data, which will be crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2][4] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are in a range-bound structure, with key support at the 4163-4164 area; a break below this could push prices towards the 4100-4085 range [3][5] - The resistance level is identified at 4245-4250; a breakout above this range could lead to further testing of 4277-4278 and potentially the $4300 level [3][5] Group 3: Key Drivers and Risks - The PCE inflation and initial jobless claims are critical for directional judgment this week, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut remaining a central theme in the market [4][6] - There is a cautionary note regarding potential risks from sudden geopolitical tensions or a rapid dollar rebound, which could significantly amplify gold price volatility [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the shock correction of the precious metal market may continue due to some long - profit - taking funds leaving the market after the previous strong rally driven by interest - rate cut expectations. In the long term, platinum prices may maintain strong resilience supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, structural supply - demand deficits, the continuous progress of "platinum replacing palladium", and long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium demand faces significant downward pressure during the "platinum replacing palladium" process in the gasoline purification catalyst field, and the palladium market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus. However, the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price, and the subsequent catch - up rally of palladium prices is expected to continue [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 439.65 yuan/gram, down 2.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 379.25 yuan/gram, down 2.70 yuan. The position of the platinum main contract was 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the position of the palladium main contract was 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 428.00 yuan, up 1.00 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot price was 372.00 yuan, down 2.50 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 11.65 yuan/gram, up 3.75 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 7.25 yuan/gram, up 0.20 yuan [2]. Supply - Demand Situation - The CFTC non - commercial long positions of platinum were 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; those of palladium were 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. Macro Data - The US dollar index was 98.87, down 0.45; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.82%, down 0.03%. The VIX volatility index was 16.08, down 0.51 [2]. Industry News - The US ISM services PMI index in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high. The new order growth declined from a one - year high, and the payment price index dropped to a seven - month low. The employment index rose to a six - month high. The US ADP employment decreased by 32,000 in November, against an expected increase of 10,000. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 11%. The US has invited the Ukrainian delegation to the US for peace - negotiation consultations. The platinum and palladium main contracts fluctuated weakly during the session, with the London platinum spot price significantly corrected and the London palladium spot price relatively resilient [2]. Key Points to Watch - On December 4th at 20:30, the number of Challenger corporate layoffs in the US in November; at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 29th; the US PCE personal consumption expenditure data for September (time to be determined) [2].

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 12 月 4 日 星期四 纯苯现实承压偏弱，苯乙烯供应回升 一、 日度市场总结 纯苯：纯苯短期仍处于弱现实与强预期的震荡结构。此前市场关注的海 外调油逻辑在汽油累库、裂解价差回落以及芳烃整体回调后明显弱化， 支撑情绪有所降温。现实端压力在 12 月集中体现，节奏性到港增多叠加 主流买方提货有限，使港口胀库情况加剧，部分库区甚至面临仓储费上 涨压力。需求方面延续淡季特征，CPL 因行业自律减产继续下滑，纯苯消 耗仍偏弱；苯酚、苯胺及己二酸虽有 1 月后的装置恢复计划，但当前实 际改善有限。供应端来看，国内炼厂仍存检修降负预期，韩国歧化与裂解 利润维持低位，使市场对 2026 年初供应收缩的远月逻辑依旧存在。进口 方面，市场对 1 月后进口量预期差较大，对加工费形成不确定性。总体 判断，12 月依旧是纯苯压力最集中时期，在库存累增、需求偏弱的背景 下维持低位震荡。 （1）基本面 价格：12 月 3 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 0.32%，报 6585 元/吨，基差 115（+64 元/吨）；纯苯主力合约收跌 0.24%，报 5441 元/吨。 成本：12 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The processing fee of copper concentrate in the raw material end still operates in the negative range, and the raw material supply remains tight, supporting the copper price cost. After the previous centralized maintenance, smelting capacity may be released again, but the tight supply of raw materials will limit the capacity, so the domestic refined copper supply will only increase slightly. The impact of the consumption off - season is gradually emerging, and the high copper price restrains downstream consumption, leading to cautious downstream purchasing sentiment. The social inventory remains at a medium - low level but may accumulate due to the off - season. The year - end rush of domestic power infrastructure and the year - end sales push of the new energy vehicle industry support the demand to some extent. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.29, up 0.0159 month - on - month, indicating a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility rises slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. The overall view is to trade with a light position in a fluctuating market, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 90,980 yuan/ton, up 1770 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 11,411 dollars/ton, down 76.50 dollars. The spread between adjacent months of the main contract is - 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 234,570 lots, up 10,586 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 32,233 lots, up 2,696 lots. The LME copper inventory is 162,150 tons, up 350 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 97,930 tons, down 12,673 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant of cathode copper is 32,139 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 91,245 yuan/ton, up 2,265 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 91,175 yuan/ton, up 2,090 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 48.50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 39.00 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 265 yuan/ton, up 495 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 88.38 dollars/ton, up 19.20 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.75 dollars/kiloton, down 0.43 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 79,350 yuan/metal ton, up 330 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 80,050 yuan/metal ton, up 330 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 60,990 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 74,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,824 billion yuan, up 445.93 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 73,562.70 billion yuan, up 5,856.99 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177,000 thousand pieces, down 194,236.10 thousand pieces [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 12.50%, up 1.54%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 15.56%, down 2.65%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the current month is 17.96%, up 0.0051. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.29, up 0.0159 [2] 3.7 Industry News - From 2022 to 2024, the gap between external debt repayment funds and new financing of developing countries reached 741 billion dollars, the highest in more than 50 years. In 2024, the total external debt of developing countries reached a record 8.9 trillion dollars, and the total interest payment reached a record 415.4 billion dollars. The ADP employment in the US decreased by 32,000 in November, the lowest since March 2023, and the market expected an increase of 10,000. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is close to 90%. The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of new - type urbanization, including promoting the urbanization of agricultural transfer population, implementing urban renewal, and promoting the high - quality development of real estate. From January to November this year, the replacement of old consumer goods drove the sales of related goods to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting more than 360 million people. From January to October, China's service trade imports and exports totaled 6,584.43 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%, and the service trade deficit was 766.37 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 269.39 billion yuan. With the consumption of the fourth batch of 6.9 billion yuan national subsidy funds, more than 20 cities in China have suspended or adjusted the subsidy for car replacement. In November, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.263 million, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Among them, the retail sales of the new energy market were 1.354 million, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the penetration rate of the new energy market was 59.8% [2]

尽管黄金尚未回到10月创下的每盎司4380美元左右历史高点，但据一位市场策略师表示，当前金价已接 近其公允价值。 在近期接受Kitco新闻采访时，WisdomTree大宗商品与宏观研究主管尼泰什·沙阿（Nitesh Shah）表示， 全球经济充斥着大量不确定性，尽管金价波动性很大，但在每次新的突破后都能建立更高的支撑位，这 并不令人意外。 他补充道，等待金价更大幅度回调的投资者可能会继续失望，因为贵金属预计将从日益疲软的经济中获 得坚实支撑，这将迫使美联储在下周及2026年期间降息，从而推低名义和实际债券收益率，并削弱美 元。 尽管黄金在10月未能站稳每盎司4380美元上方，并遭遇了大规模获利了结，但抛售压力始终有限，支撑 位维持在每盎司4000美元上方。 "金价可能跌破4000美元，但这需要巨大的推动力，几乎可以说是不可能的，"他说。 沙阿表示，在熊市情景下，利率必须回升至5%。但他补充道，若出现这种情况，美国经济可能会陷入 衰退，这将使黄金成为具有吸引力的避险资产。 "只有在经济活动异常强劲、利率必须进一步上升，且投资者认为不再需要持有黄金的情景下，金价才 会大幅下跌，"他说，"但目前来看这根本不可能。每 ...