Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bearish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak oscillation [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Weak [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 300: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Oscillation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Palm oil: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillation [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillatory and bearish [6] - Live pigs: Oscillation [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment-driven rise in the iron ore market is gradually weakening, and it will return to fundamentals in the short term. The real demand for steel products continues to weaken, and the overall pattern of supply increase and demand decrease in the five major steel products has led to a reduction in the raw material procurement demand due to the decline in steel product prices. The high profit rate of steel mills and the significant reduction in molten iron production, combined with the pre - empted external demand exports, will result in a distinct pattern of high in the front and low in the back under the condition of no increase in total annual demand. The relatively high inventory level of iron ore ports also exerts pressure on prices [2]. - For coking coal, production is at a high level, and the downstream replenishment motivation is insufficient after the May Day holiday. The raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines has reached a record high. With the decline in molten iron production and the continuous increase in coking coal supply, the far - month 09 contract will continue to weaken. For coke, as the coking coal price falls, the cost of coking enterprises' incoming coal decreases, but steel mills have initiated a second price cut, squeezing the profit of coking enterprises. With the arrival of high - temperature weather, downstream demand weakens, and the inventory pressure of coking enterprises increases. The pattern of coke supply surplus remains unchanged, and coal and coke generally follow the trend of steel products [2]. - The driving force for the previous policy and sentiment - driven rise in the rebar market is gradually weakening. Although the demand decline rhythm is relatively slow in the short term, steel supply increases while demand decreases. The total inventory is still in the process of destocking, but the impact of the rainy season will drag down terminal demand, and inventory destocking may slow down or even increase in mid - June. Steel prices face periodic pressure. With the phased repair of long - process steel mill profits, blast furnace restarts continue, and supply remains at a high level. External demand exports are pre - empted, and real estate investment has declined across the board, resulting in a pattern of high in the front and low in the back under the condition of no increase in total annual demand [2]. - For glass, although there are rumors of planned cold - repair and production cuts by Hubei glass manufacturers, and the production and sales situation has improved, there is no substantial positive in the fundamentals. The supply of float glass has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased from a two - month high, which has improved market sentiment. However, in the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and glass demand is difficult to recover significantly. There is a lack of driving force to push up prices during the transition from the peak season to the off - season [2]. - In the financial market, the performance of stock indexes was mixed in the previous trading day. Some sectors had capital inflows, while others had outflows. The financial data of state - owned enterprises showed that the total operating income was flat compared with the previous year, and the total profit decreased slightly. The asset - liability ratio increased slightly. The issuance of local government bonds showed certain characteristics. The sentiment in the stock index futures market has improved, and long positions can be held. The bond market has narrow - range fluctuations, and long positions in bonds can be held with a light position [2][4]. - For precious metals, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The currency, financial, and commodity attributes of gold, as well as the impact of geopolitical risks and trade policies, all affect the gold price. Although the logic driving the current gold price increase has not completely reversed, the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies may cause short - term fluctuations. The silver price also shows high - level oscillation [4]. - For pulp, the decrease in raw material prices weakens the support for pulp prices. The low profitability of the papermaking industry, high inventory, and weak demand during the off - season are negative factors. However, the price increase notices issued by paper mills may boost market sentiment, and pulp prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - For logs, the daily shipment volume of log ports has increased slightly, but it is difficult to reach a high level due to the off - season. The supply from New Zealand is expected to decrease, and the inventory has increased slightly. The cost - side negative factors may weaken, and the fundamentals have marginally improved. Log prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - For oils and fats, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly due to increased production and decreased domestic consumption. Although the export potential may be stimulated, the production increase is higher than the export increase, and inventory may continue to accumulate. The supply of the three major oils and fats is abundant, and it is the traditional consumption off - season, so the price is expected to show an oscillatory and bearish trend [6]. - For meal products, the new - crop inventory of US soybeans may further tighten, but the large domestic soybean arrivals, increased oil mill operating rates, and improved domestic inventory have alleviated the supply pressure. Meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - For live pigs, the average slaughter weight has increased slightly, with regional differences. The demand of slaughtering enterprises is relatively stable, but terminal consumption demand has declined seasonally. Although it is the traditional consumption off - season, the strong demand for secondary fattening supports the price. The cost of leading enterprises provides support, and pig prices are expected to oscillate [8]. - For rubber, short - term supply is under pressure due to weather disturbances in domestic and foreign rubber - producing areas, and the raw material supply is tight. The import volume has decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has increased, but the terminal demand has not improved substantially, and inventory continues to accumulate. Rubber prices are expected to be affected by macro - sentiment and policies and maintain an oscillatory pattern [8]. - For polyester products, PX prices are expected to follow the trend of oil prices. PTA is mainly affected by raw material price fluctuations. MEG has a relatively good short - term supply - demand situation but is subject to large macro - sentiment fluctuations. Polyester bottle - grade chips and polyester staple fibers are affected by factors such as raw material supply, downstream orders, and production cuts, and their prices are expected to show a weakening trend with limited decline space [9]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The previous policy - and sentiment - driven rise is losing momentum, and it will return to fundamentals. Steel demand weakens, and iron ore inventory exerts pressure. Investors who have short positions can continue to hold [2]. - Coal and coke: Coking coal production is high, and downstream replenishment is weak. Coke supply surplus persists, and the 09 contract of coking coal may weaken. Steel mills' price cuts squeeze coking enterprise profits [2]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The rise momentum weakens, demand declines, and supply remains high. The rainy season will affect inventory destocking, and steel prices face pressure [2]. - Glass: There are rumors of production cuts, and production and sales have improved, but fundamentals lack substantial positives. Real estate adjustment restricts demand recovery [2]. - Soda ash: The transition from peak to off - season lacks driving force to push up prices, and attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery [2]. Financial Market - Stock indexes: Performance is mixed, and sector capital flows vary. Financial data of state - owned enterprises and local government bond issuance have certain characteristics. Stock index futures sentiment improves, and long positions can be held [2][4]. - Bonds: Market interest rates are consolidating, and bond prices fluctuate in a narrow range. Long positions in bonds can be held with a light position [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, and multiple factors affect prices. Although the driving logic has not reversed, policies may cause short - term fluctuations. Prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillation [4]. Light Industry - Pulp: Raw material price decline weakens support, and off - season demand is weak. Price increase notices may boost sentiment, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - Logs: Shipment volume increases slightly, supply from New Zealand may decrease, and inventory accumulates. Cost - side negatives weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats and Meal Products - Oils and fats: Malaysian palm oil inventory increases, and the supply of the three major oils and fats is abundant. It is the consumption off - season, and prices are expected to be oscillatory and bearish [6]. - Meal products: US soybean inventory may tighten, but domestic supply is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Slaughter weight increases with regional differences, demand is stable but terminal consumption weakens. Secondary fattening supports prices, and pig prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather, import volume changes, and tire enterprise inventory accumulates. Terminal demand has not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Polyester Products - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: PX follows oil prices, PTA is affected by raw materials, MEG is subject to macro - sentiment, and PR and PF are affected by raw material supply, downstream orders, and production cuts, with prices expected to show a weakening trend [9].

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周三（5月28日）欧洲时段，黄金价格周三陷入盘整偏弱格局，因美元延续反弹、市场风险偏好情绪升 温，打压避险需求。尽管亚盘初略有回升，但现货黄金未能站稳3300美元，显示上方阻力依旧强劲。特 朗普推迟对欧盟征收50%关税至7月9日，短期内增强了风险偏好情绪，削弱了黄金避险需求。不过，贸 易政策仍存在重大不确定性，加上美国财政状况持续恶化以及地缘政治风险持续，为金价提供部分支 撑。 此外，路透社透露的数据显示，4月份中国通过香港的黄金净进口量比3月份增加了一倍多，达到自2024 年3月以来的最高水平。同时，根据Prime Market Terminal的数据，货币市场表明，交易员预计年底前将 宽松46.5个基点。 明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利表示，在明确提高关税如何影响价格稳定之前，利率应保持不 变。这一系列因素相互交织，共同影响着当前复杂多变的金融市场格局。 在技术分析领域，周二金价走势出现关键变化，于跌破短期上升趋势线后呈现出进一步回调态势。当 前，金价正处于对4小时图200周期均线所在3295美元一线的测试阶段。值得注意的是，一旦该均线被有 效跌破，且形成具有确认意义的收盘状态，那么短期内的下行趋势或 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The easing of risk aversion demand dragged down the gold price. Yesterday, Japan considered cutting the issuance plan of long - term bonds, and consumer confidence improved more than expected, leading to a decline in precious metals [1]. - The short - term trend of gold depends on the battle for key support levels and signals from the Fed's policies. In the long run, the expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the surge in China's gold imports in April may provide resilience to the gold price, but short - term technical selling pressure and policy risks need to be watched out for [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - EU officials have asked major EU companies and CEOs to provide details of their investment plans in the US. After Trump revoked the threat of high - tariff on EU imports, the EU is preparing to advance trade negotiations with Washington [2]. - Chinese Premier Li Qiang said in Kuala Lumpur that economic globalization is experiencing unprecedented major shocks, and it is necessary to deepen mutual trust and expand opening - up [2]. - Japan will consider cutting the issuance of ultra - long - term bonds after the sharp rise in yields to ease market concerns about the deterioration of government finances [2][3]. Price Logic - Gold prices fell yesterday, breaking through the key support of $3,300 in the afternoon. The fundamentals are a mix of long and short factors, and market sentiment is affected by trade progress and economic data differentiation [3]. - US durable goods orders in April declined more than expected, but the March data was revised up to 7.6%, and the consumer confidence index rebounded to 98.0. Trump's plan to conduct trade negotiations with the EU weakened gold's safe - haven appeal. The strengthening of the US dollar offset the potential support of the decline in US Treasury yields on the gold price [3]. Outlook - Next week, focus on the US April PCE data and the first - quarter real GDP data, and continuously monitor changes in trade frictions. The weekly COMEX gold range is [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver range is [32, 35] [5].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced significant volatility and entered a correction phase in late May 2025, with spot gold falling below $3,300 per ounce, marking a 1.4% decline in a single day and approximately 6% down from the historical high of $3,509.9 in April [1] Group 1: Downward Driving Factors - Decrease in safe-haven demand due to progress in US-China and EU-US tariff negotiations and easing Middle East tensions, leading to a shift of funds from gold to risk assets like US stocks [1] - Strengthening US dollar with the index rising above 99.6, marking the largest weekly gain since March 2023, and a reduction in market expectations for interest rate cuts from 53 basis points to 47 basis points, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] - Technical selling pressure intensified after gold prices fell below the key psychological level of $3,300, triggering stop-loss orders in program trading, with a 12% weekly decrease in COMEX gold futures open interest and a 35% drop in speculative long positions [3] Group 2: Market Chain Reactions - Divergence in consumption and investment, with domestic gold jewelry prices dropping to 987 yuan per gram, over 100 yuan lower than the April peak, while A-share gold stocks experienced a single-day decline of over 3% [4] - Global largest gold ETF (SPDR Gold Trust) increased holdings by 28 tons, indicating long-term investment interest, while short-term trading funds accelerated withdrawals, with COMEX gold put options reaching a historical high [5] Group 3: Future Trend Assessment - Short-term risks include potential declines to the $3,135 range if the $3,280 support level is breached, with extreme scenarios testing the $3,000 mark, and increased market volatility expected ahead of the Federal Reserve's June rate decision and the US core PCE index release [7] - Long-term support logic includes a 170% year-on-year increase in global central bank gold purchases in Q1 2025 and the introduction of gold weight in BRICS countries' settlement mechanisms providing structural support [8] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Prioritize purchasing from Shenzhen Shui Bei wholesale market or promotional brand products, avoiding high-premium gold jewelry with processing fees exceeding 200 yuan per gram [9] - Ordinary investors are advised to gradually build positions in gold ETFs or bank accumulation gold, maintaining a portfolio allocation of 5%-10% of household assets, while leveraged traders should be cautious of liquidity risks in US debt markets [10] Group 5: Technical Focus Points - Key support levels identified at $3,280 (EMA20 period moving average) and $3,135 (Fibonacci 50% retracement level), with resistance levels at $3,342 (May 27 opening price) and $3,365 (downward trend line resistance) [11]

5月27日，美国欧盟关税谈判缓和和美股大幅反弹影响，避险需求降温，金价延续走低，盘中一度跌至 3283美元，尾盘小幅拉升，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货跌1.27%报3299.70美元/盎司；截至亚市收盘， 黄金ETF华夏(518850)跌0.83%，近5日高位震荡，获资金净申购9671万元，黄金股ETF(159562)跌 2.04%，近5日获资金净申购5781万元。 数据层面，美国3月FHFA房价指数环比降0.1%，预期升0.1%，前值从升0.1%修正为持平。美国3月 S&P/CS20座大城市未季调房价指数同比升4.1%，预期升4.5%，前值升4.5%。国信期货分析认为，美欧 贸易博弈扰动与美俄制裁升温交织，支撑贵金属避险功能；美国房价走弱强化滞胀交易，佛州立法确认 金银货币地位提振实物需求，但特朗普集团比特币储备计划或阶段性分流资金。 展望后市，黄金或维持震荡格局，若后续通胀数据稳固，美联储宽松节奏放缓或抑制上行空间，但地缘 与政策风险溢价仍支撑金价。 消息面上，特朗普在社交媒体发文称，对欧盟加快贸易谈判进程感到鼓舞。知情人士此前透露，欧盟正 寻求加快与美国的贸易谈判，重点放在关键的行业以及关税和非关税壁垒 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: May 27, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Trump postponed the 50% tariff on the EU until July 9, weakening the safe - haven demand. LME was closed for a holiday, and SHFE zinc opened high and closed low. The main contract 2507 closed at 22,185 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan or 0.52%. The supply of zinc is expected to be loose, and the demand is in the off - peak season. The tariff policy relaxation has limited boost to the downstream, and the zinc price fluctuates at a low level in the short term [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc 2506, it opened at 22,360 yuan/ton, closed at 22,405 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,495 yuan/ton, a low of 22,305 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan or 0.38%, and the position decreased by 6,837 to 44,433 lots. For SHFE zinc 2507, it opened at 22,155 yuan/ton, closed at 22,185 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,300 yuan/ton, a low of 22,085 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan or 0.52%, and the position increased by 4,451 to 118,520 lots. For SHFE zinc 2508, it opened at 22,000 yuan/ton, closed at 22,055 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,160 yuan/ton, a low of 21,970 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan or 0.52%, and the position increased by 1,942 to 41,156 lots [7] - **Market Analysis**: The TC this week was flat compared with last week. The domestic zinc mine output will increase seasonally from May to June, and the processing fee has room to rise. The imported zinc ore inventory is over 350,000 tons. The demand is in the off - peak season, and the tariff policy relaxation has limited boost to the downstream. The spot premiums in Tianjin and Guangdong increased, while that in Shanghai remained stable, and the spot trading was poor [7] 2. Industry News - **0 Zinc in Mainstream Markets on May 26, 2025**: In the mainstream market, the price of 0 zinc was 22,590 - 22,735 yuan/ton, and Shuangyan was 22,790 - 22,935 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 40 - 60 yuan/ton to the average price. In the second trading session, the ordinary domestic brand quoted a premium of 250 - 260 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, SMC quoted a premium of 230 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, and Shuangyan quoted a premium of 450 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract [8] - **Zinc in Ningbo Market**: The price of mainstream 0 zinc brands was about 22,620 - 22,755 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo quoted a premium of 265 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract and a premium of 70 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. In the first period, Qilin quoted a premium of 270 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, and Hualian quoted a delivered premium of 330 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract. In the second period, the traders' quotes remained the same as the previous period [8] - **Zinc in Tianjin Market**: The price of 0 zinc ingots was 22,540 - 22,730 yuan/ton, and Zijin was 22,600 - 22,760 yuan/ton. 0 zinc generally quoted a premium of 200 - 250 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, and Zijin quoted a premium of 260 - 280 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract. By the noon close, Xinzi quoted a premium of 200 - 230 yuan/ton to the 06 contract, Hongye quoted 250 yuan/ton to the 06 contract, and Zijin quoted a premium of 260 - 280 yuan/ton to the 06 contract [8] - **Zinc in Guangdong Market**: The price of mainstream 0 zinc was 22,515 - 22,730 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a premium of 370 yuan/ton to the 2507 contract and a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. In the first period, the holders quoted a premium of 390 - 400 yuan/ton for Qilin, Mengzi, and Lanxing. In the second period, Qilin, Mengzi, and Danxia quoted a premium of 400 - 440 yuan/ton to the net price [9] 3. Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report includes graphs such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory [12][13]

作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 2025.05. 27 本文字数：1763，阅读时长大约3分钟 今年以来，全球贸易形势变化成为了黄金上涨的重要推手。在中美日内瓦商贸谈判后，国际金价一度 从历史高位回撤近6%，然而美国总统特朗普在关税问题上反复和随后美国多边贸易谈判缺乏实质性 进展使得市场焦虑情绪卷土重来。花旗在最新报告中将三个月金价目标位再次调回至3500美元，不 过长期前景面临不利因素挑战。与此同时，不少机构将美国财政危局、美元弱势和实物需求旺盛视为 短中期利多因素。 花旗：短期看好长期谨慎 在上周日发布的一份研究报告中，花旗预测未来三个月内黄金交易目标为3500美元，高于5月12日 设定的3300美元。 最新修正源于特朗普上周再次发出威胁，要从6月1日起对欧盟征收50%的关税。不过随后他改变了 想法，据央视新闻报道，当地时间25日，特朗普表示，欧盟请求将关税谈判期限延长至7月9日，他 已同意这一请求。特朗普称，本次与欧盟就关税问题的谈话"非常愉快"。 尽管上修了目标价，花旗分析师对黄金长期前景持谨慎态度，并列举了两个可能的不利因素：其一， 随着美国中期选举临近和美联储降息，经济增长和相关股票风险可能会解除。其 ...

现在针对尾盘做一个大概的展望，现在金价自3336这里反弹再度来到压制线附近，如果没有什么大的消息面刺激，那么尾盘大概还有一波下行，因为会受收 尾多单抛盘影响去试探3336的位置。如果金价收盘于3336之下，那么自高位3500到3440的趋势线压制还存在，下周主要关注3300到3360区间的收敛区间；反 之金价站稳3336的位置，那么下周的操作思路还是偏于看涨为主，3360（趋势线随时间的推移会降低点位）这个趋势线压制或许会失效。下周的具体操作思 路我会在周评中再做阐述的，大家继续关注即可。 没有不成功的投资，只有不成功的操作，秦氏金升浸染金融行业十余载，有丰富的实战操盘经验和独特的交易理念，我们拥有全球稳健的交易系统在这里， 对黄金、原油、等投资领域研究多年，具有扎实的理论基础和实战经验，擅长技术面消息面结合式操作，注重资金管理和风险控制，操作风格稳健果断，以 随和负责的性格与犀利果断的操作而被广大投资朋友认可。分析文章只是对市场未来可能的描述，只是观点的表达，不作为投资决策依据，投资有风险，交 易务必注意合理的仓位配置、资金管理和风险控制，无风控不交易，不要让交易失控！ 周五（5月23日），受美元走软和市场 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the impact of President Trump's decision to delay tariffs on the EU, which has led to a decrease in safe-haven demand for silver, resulting in a slight decline in silver prices [1][2] - The latest price of paper silver is reported at 7.712 yuan per gram, reflecting a decrease of 0.12% [1] - Trump's announcement to extend the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on the EU until July 9 was made after a positive conversation with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [2] Group 2 - The auction of 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds faced weak demand, with a bid yield of 5.047%, significantly higher than market expectations and the average of the last six auctions [3] - The disappointing auction results have raised concerns about the weakening demand for long-term U.S. Treasuries, with the yield on 20-year bonds rising to 5.127% following the auction [3] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing debate over tax reform proposals in Congress is amplifying fears regarding U.S. asset demand and the potential increase in national debt by $3 trillion to $5 trillion due to Trump's tax reform plan [3] Group 3 - Paper silver has shown a strong rebound, moving back above the 5-week moving average, indicating a resurgence of bullish momentum [4] - Short-term forecasts suggest that paper silver prices may continue to strengthen, with resistance levels identified at 7.75-7.80 yuan per gram and support levels at 7.50-7.60 yuan per gram [4]