Core Viewpoint - The report by SEB Research's chief interest rate strategist Jussi Hiljanen indicates that U.S. long-term Treasury yields are likely to rise further due to declining market confidence in U.S. policies, which may lead to a significant repricing of U.S. government debt [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Market Confidence - Trust in U.S. policies is eroding, contributing to upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields [1] Valuation and Investment Trends - The lack of attractiveness in valuations, considering foreign exchange hedging costs, is prompting investors to shift towards European bonds [1] Yield Expectations - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to rise moderately, with fiscal policy potentially triggering a substantial repricing of U.S. government debt [1]

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes that under pressure on the revenue side, the government may rely more on debt issuance this year, as tax revenue has decreased by 2.1% year-on-year and land sales revenue has dropped by 11.4% [2][11] - It suggests that the fiscal policy will likely require incremental debt to maintain its strength throughout the year, especially if there is no significant improvement in revenue [2][6] Group 1: Debt Issuance and Fiscal Policy - The government has accelerated debt issuance since the beginning of the year, with net financing expected to reach 13.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.2 trillion yuan compared to last year [5][12] - As of May 20, the known net financing of government debt reached 6.2 trillion yuan, achieving 44.9% of the annual target, compared to 22.5% during the same period last year [5][12] - The article indicates that if the revenue side does not improve significantly, the government may need to increase its debt issuance to maintain fiscal strength [6][13] Group 2: Non-Deficit Debt and Investment Focus - In the second quarter, non-deficit debt is expected to accelerate, reflecting a marginal shift in fiscal support towards investment [8][22] - As of May 20, the net financing of non-deficit debt reached 2 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 36.5%, indicating a focus on investment projects [22][23] - The article highlights that the acceleration of non-deficit debt issuance may signal increased fiscal support for infrastructure and other investment projects [23][28] Group 3: Special Refinancing Bonds and Local Government Debt - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has progressed rapidly, with a known progress rate of 77.8% as of May 20, indicating a focus on managing local government debt [28][29] - The article notes that local government hidden debts remain under strict control, with the central government expected to play a key role in increasing budgetary bonds and quasi-fiscal capital injections [29][31] - The emphasis is placed on the central government's commitment to not increasing hidden debts, reinforcing fiscal discipline [29][31] Group 4: Revenue and Expenditure Insights - In April, fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, with tax revenue turning positive, particularly in the equipment manufacturing and technology sectors [31][33] - The article mentions that the expenditure progress for January to April was the fastest since 2020, with a notable increase in infrastructure spending in April [44][50] - The government’s focus on accelerating special bond issuance and enhancing fiscal support for projects is expected to continue, with a projected increase in government fund income [50][56]

美联储理事沃勒：市场正关注财政政策，并表达了担忧。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Mid - and long - term bond bull market may still be expected, but in the short term, due to the phase - out results of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the release of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cut benefits, the market risk - aversion sentiment has cooled significantly, and the bond market has weakened in a volatile manner. Considering the obvious short - term differentiation in the market, there may be no high - quality trading opportunities in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of long - end bond price correction [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, and TS main contracts' closing prices increased by 0.01%, 0.01%, and 0% respectively, while TL main contract decreased by 0.12%. T, TF, TS main contracts' trading volumes increased by 12458, 4789, and 4013 respectively, while TL main contract decreased by 5858 [2] - **Price Spreads**: Some price spreads increased, such as TL2509 - 2506 (+0.09), T06 - TL06 (+0.18), TF06 - T06 (+0.01), and TS06 - T06 (+0.00); some decreased, like T2509 - 2506 (-0.01), TF2509 - 2506 (-0.03), TS2509 - 2506 (-0.00), and TS06 - TF06 (-0.01) [2] - **Open Interest**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts' open interests decreased by 5054, 6486, 3050, and 3764 respectively. The net short positions of T, TF, TS, and TL among the top 20 changed by 0, - 1238, - 685, and +980 respectively [2] 2. CTD Bonds - The net prices of some CTD bonds decreased, such as 220010.IB (-0.0199), 250007.IB (-0.2800), 200012.IB (-0.1172), and 210005.IB (-0.0029); some increased, like 240020.IB (+0.0207), 220027.IB (+0.0535), 250006.IB (+0.0005), and 240010.IB (0) [2] 3. Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of 1 - 7Y active treasury bonds decreased by about 0.5bp, while 10Y increased by 0.8bp [2] 4. Short - term Interest Rates - Some short - term interest rates increased, such as silver - pledged overnight (+9.72bp), Shibor 14 - day (+0.90bp); some decreased, like Shibor overnight (-4.40bp), silver - pledged 7 - day (-4.17bp), and Shibor 7 - day (-2.60bp) [2] 5. Industry News - The central bank governor chaired a symposium on financial support for the real economy, emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy. The latest LPR decreased by 10bp, and major banks cut deposit interest rates [2] 6. Market Performance - On Thursday, the yields of treasury bonds showed a short - strong and long - weak pattern. Treasury bond futures also showed a similar pattern. The central bank had a net injection, and the weighted average DR007 rate rebounded [2] 7. Fundamental Analysis - In April, domestic economic data was stable, with social retail sales slightly falling, fixed - asset investment shrinking, and industrial added - value exceeding expectations. Financial data was divided, and price data showed that core inflation improved but industrial prices were weak. Overseas, the US economic data in April was mixed, and the market expected the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts to July [2]

Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - In April, general fiscal revenue increased by 2.7% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 1.7% in March[2] - General fiscal expenditure rose by 12.9% year-on-year in April, up from 10.1% in March[2] - From January to April, tax revenue decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, while land sales revenue fell by 11.4%[3] Group 2: Debt Issuance Insights - The government bond issuance has accelerated, with net financing expected to reach 13.9 trillion yuan this year, an increase of 2.2 trillion yuan from last year[3] - As of May 20, net financing reached 6.2 trillion yuan, achieving 44.9% of the annual target, compared to 22.5% during the same period last year[3] - The cumulative net financing of government bonds has increased by 3.6 trillion yuan year-on-year, exceeding the expected annual increase of 2.2 trillion yuan[4] Group 3: Investment and Spending Trends - Non-deficit bonds are catching up in issuance, indicating a shift towards investment support in fiscal policy[7] - Infrastructure spending showed a significant increase in April, with urban community spending rising by 6.8% and transportation spending by 10.6%[8] - The progress of fiscal spending from January to April was the fastest since 2020, with a completion rate of 31.5% of the budget[54] Group 4: Revenue and Expenditure Dynamics - Tax revenue growth turned positive in April at 1.9%, while non-tax revenue hit a new low for 2024[34] - The growth in government fund income was driven by a recovery in land sales revenue, which increased by 4.3% in April[64] - The expenditure growth rate for government funds surged to 44.7% in April, significantly up from 27.9% in March[64]

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of JPMorgan in China, Zhu Haibin, emphasizes that while exports may weaken, consumption and investment are expected to strengthen due to policy support, highlighting the need for enhanced measures to boost consumption [1] Economic Policy Insights - Fiscal policy has room for expansion to support stable growth, with the central government expected to implement measures [1] - There is a necessity for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, particularly after September 2024, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate and capital markets as part of financial stability policies [1] Economic Structure Rebalancing - Expanding domestic demand and consumption are prioritized as key tasks in economic work moving forward [1]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 22 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 偏强震荡 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆玉米： 区间【2300，2360】操作 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Coke: Oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Oscillation with a downward bias [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The economic data in April shows that the number of cities with rising real - estate prices has decreased, and the time for housing prices to bottom out has been postponed again. Industrial added - value has declined compared to March, and the social financing structure is mainly supported by bills and government bonds, with the financing demand of the real economy decreasing. However, the government's leverage increase continues, and subsequent fiscal policies may bring surprises [4]. - For coking coal, supply is the biggest negative factor. Domestic coking coal mine production has slightly declined but remains at a high level for the year, and mine coking coal inventories are accelerating. For coke, cost and downstream demand are decisive factors. After the continuous over - expected increase in hot metal production, there was a slight decline this week, and the first round of spot price cuts for coke has been implemented. Without obvious signs of crude steel production cuts and fiscal policy efforts, coal and coke are likely to maintain a weak oscillation pattern [5]. - Fundamentally, the short - term supply and demand of coal and coke have no obvious changes and remain weak. As the basis and monthly spread strengthen, the resistance to further decline of the 09 contract will increase. The potential downward space for coking coal is about 100, and for coke is about 140, so chasing short positions is not cost - effective. It is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and add positions after confirming the bottom [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Related Information - Spot prices have been lowered, and futures prices have continued to decline. The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 970 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is reported at 842 yuan/ton (+3.5). The basis is 148 yuan/ton (-3.5), and the 9 - 1 monthly spread is - 14.5 yuan/ton (-16.5) [1]. 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - Mine production has slightly declined, and coking enterprise production has remained flat. The production rate of 523 mines is reported at 89.26% (-0.66), the production rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.08% (-0.34), and the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.23% (+0.18) [2]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventories have increased, and downstream inventories have decreased. The coking coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 4.1045 million tons (+200,200 tons), the coking coal inventory of coal washing plants is 2.0326 million tons (+59,800 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 7.9121 million tons (+40,000 tons), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 7.5256 million tons (-226,100 tons), and the port inventory is 3.0609 million tons (+82,800 tons) [2]. 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Related Information - The first round of spot price cuts has been implemented, and futures prices have oscillated downward. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1390 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract is reported at 1417.5 yuan/ton (+10). The basis is 78.37 yuan/ton (-10), and the 9 - 1 monthly spread is - 27 yuan/ton (+3) [3]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply has remained flat, and demand may have reached its peak. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 75.23% (+0.18). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 91.76% (-0.33), and the daily average hot metal output is 2.4477 million tons (-87,000 tons) [3]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventories have remained flat, and downstream inventories have decreased. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 65,460 tons (+370 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 663,800 tons (-7,230 tons), and the port inventory is 225,110 tons (-3,970 tons) [3]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - At present, the economic data in April shows that the real - estate market is still in the process of bottom - seeking, and the real economy's financing demand is weak. However, government leverage increase continues, and fiscal policies may bring positive effects. In the case of super - expected positive news from the Sino - US tariff negotiation, the black sector still shows a weak trend. Supply - side production cuts and fiscal policies to boost domestic demand are what the market is most looking forward to [4]. - In the short term, it is recommended to hold a small long position in the J09 contract and add positions after confirming the bottom. The potential downward space for coking coal is about 100, and for coke is about 140, so chasing short positions is not cost - effective [5].

Core Insights - The overall public budget revenue for the first four months of the year was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Public budget expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, marking the fastest expenditure progress for the same period since 2020 [1] - In April, public budget revenue grew by 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue growth accelerating by 4.1 percentage points to 1.9% [1][2] - Non-tax revenue for the first four months was 15,060 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, but the growth rate slowed to 1.7% in April [3] Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue for April turned positive with a growth rate of 1.9%, while the total tax revenue for January to April was 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first quarter [2] - Major tax categories showed a decline in growth rates, with VAT, consumption tax, and corporate income tax experiencing significant drops [2] - Personal income tax saw a substantial rebound due to a low base from the previous year, rising from -58.5% to 9.0% [2] Expenditure Analysis - Public budget expenditure in April grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with significant increases in social security and employment spending (8.5%) and education spending (7.4%) [4] - Infrastructure spending showed a growth of 2.2%, with notable increases in urban community and transportation expenditures [4] - Overall, the acceleration in fiscal spending in April indicates a proactive approach to stabilize growth amid external challenges [4] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while key areas of expenditure are being supported, the ongoing decline in cumulative fiscal revenue indicates underlying economic issues, particularly insufficient effective demand [5] - The focus of fiscal policy in the second quarter is expected to be on accelerating the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing large-scale new measures [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent surge in gold prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and weakening dollar credit due to proposed tax reforms [1][2] - Gold prices on COMEX rose by 1.83%, closing at 3301.4 points, while the Hong Kong and A-share gold sectors saw increases of nearly 5% and over 2%, respectively [1] - The potential Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities has heightened market anxiety, making gold an attractive safe-haven asset [1][5] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs believes that the impact of tax reform is outweighed by the negative effects of tariffs, which are weakening the U.S. economy [2] - There is a significant amount of capital betting against U.S. Treasury bonds, with expectations that the 10-year yield will rise towards 5%, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold [5][6] - The current market sentiment is more optimistic than in early April when tariffs were imposed, making it challenging for gold to surpass previous highs in the short term [6] Group 3 - The article discusses advancements in solid-state battery technology, which could enhance safety and performance compared to traditional liquid lithium batteries [7][8] - Researchers have identified the short-circuiting process in solid-state batteries, leading to potential solutions that could accelerate commercialization and impact various sectors like electric vehicles and robotics [9] - A report from Morgan Stanley indicates that the Chinese stock market has outperformed other markets, with significant returns noted for indices like the Hang Seng and MSCI China [10][11] Group 4 - Morgan Stanley has set optimistic targets for major Chinese indices, predicting a 5% increase for the Hang Seng Index and MSCI China by mid-2026 [12] - The report suggests that China will continue to implement accommodative policies, with potential fiscal measures to stimulate the economy in the latter half of the year [12][13] - Observations will be made regarding the expiration of the 90-day tariff pause between China and the U.S., which could influence economic growth assessments and policy adjustments [13]