Core CPI and Inflation Trends - The core CPI remained flat at 2.7% year-on-year in December, aligning with expectations; the core CPI was at 2.6%, below the expected 2.7%, marking the lowest level since April 2021 [2] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, also below the expected 0.3%; energy inflation continued to decline, offsetting the rebound in food prices, with core goods and services remaining low [2] Energy Inflation - In December, the year-on-year growth rate of energy CPI dropped to 2.3%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous month; gasoline prices fell to -4.3% year-on-year, while electricity prices remained high at 6.7% [5] - The average price of Brent crude oil in December was $62.94 per barrel, down from $63.87, indicating a steady decline towards $60 due to oversupply in the oil market [5] - EIA data suggests a global oil market surplus of 2.24 million barrels per day in 2025, increasing to 2.26 million barrels per day in 2026, indicating continued pressure on oil prices [5] Automotive Inflation - Core goods year-on-year growth was recorded at 1.4%, unchanged from the previous month; new and used car prices continued to decline to 0.3% and 1.6% respectively [6] - Leading indicators suggest a potential marginal recovery in automotive inflation by Q1 2026, indicating possible improvements in durable goods consumption post Fed rate cuts in late 2025 [6] Service Inflation - Core services year-on-year growth remained flat at 3%, with housing holding steady at 3.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%; high mortgage rates continue to suppress housing inflation [8] - Medical services saw a rebound of 0.2 percentage points to 3.5%, countering the decline in transportation services, which have been affected by falling oil prices [8] Long-term Inflation Expectations - In January 2026, the one-year inflation expectation from Michigan consumers remained at 4.2%, while the five-year expectation increased to 3.4% from 3.2%, indicating ongoing consumer concerns about inflation risks [10] Interest Rate Expectations - Following the inflation data release, the dollar index fluctuated, and U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines; the two-year Treasury yield decreased by about 1 basis point to 3.53% [12] - Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in June increased to 70% from 68%, with the likelihood of a rate cut in January dropping to 2.8% [12] - Overall, the continued low inflation in December suggests further potential for Fed rate cuts in the future [12]

Core Viewpoint - The current trend in the gold market indicates a short-term bullish outlook despite pressures from a strengthening US dollar and potential market corrections [2][3]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - As of January 14, the spot gold price is trading around $4,620 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.75% [1]. - The highest price reached was $4,620.56, while the lowest was $4,585.49 during the trading session [1]. - The recent performance shows a slight decline in gold prices, closing at $4,586.45, down 0.2% [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The US dollar index rebounded by 0.3% to 99.18, influenced by strong employment data, which has pressured gold prices [2]. - A strong dollar increases the holding cost of gold priced in dollars, leading to reduced international demand and a pullback from record highs [2]. - Historical trends suggest that when the dollar strengthens, gold prices typically face downward pressure, especially in a stable economic environment with moderate inflation [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that if the dollar continues to strengthen, gold may test the $4,500 support level, indicating potential topping signals due to various factors, including mechanical selling during annual commodity index rebalancing [2]. - However, some institutions remain optimistic, with Deutsche Bank raising its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 to $4,900, suggesting long-term growth potential [2]. - In the short term, gold is facing correction pressures, but long-term factors such as the interest rate cycle, core inflation above central bank targets, and geopolitical tensions support its status as a safe-haven asset [3].

Core Viewpoint - The December CPI data appears mild but is filled with unsustainable noise and statistical distortions, according to Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley. The true test will be the upcoming PCE data [1][3]. CPI Analysis - The December CPI data showed a year-over-year core CPI increase of 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, and a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, both below expectations [1]. - Deutsche Bank highlighted that the CPI data is distorted, with significant downward pressure from abnormal declines in information technology goods and wireless phone services, which together lowered the core CPI by about 6 basis points [4][6]. - The trimmed mean CPI and median CPI, which exclude extreme values, were reported at 0.31% and 0.28% respectively, indicating stronger underlying inflation pressures [1][6]. PCE Forecast - Morgan Stanley warned that despite the lower-than-expected core CPI, their forecast for the December PCE price index suggests a month-over-month increase of 0.46%, significantly higher than the CPI performance [2][9]. - The divergence between CPI and PCE is attributed to the differing weightings of goods and services in the two indices, with PCE showing stronger price increases in categories that have higher weights [9][11]. Market Implications - The market is awaiting the PCE data to confirm the true inflation trend. If the PCE rebounds as expected, it will limit the Federal Reserve's ability to continue lowering interest rates [3]. - Deutsche Bank noted that the CPI data reflects a mix of distorted November data recovery and genuine weakness, suggesting the Fed will likely wait for more data before signaling further rate cuts [14]. Tariff Effects - Both Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley observed signs of tariff impacts on inflation data, with prices of tariff-sensitive goods rising again in December, indicating potential future consumer price increases [12].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, precious metals prices are expected to remain strong under the dual support of macro and fundamental factors. However, due to risk - control measures by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and CME, price fluctuations may be significant. It's recommended to control positions. Long - term, the upward logic for precious metals remains unchanged, and strategies should focus on buying on dips or selling slightly out - of - the - money put options [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties are rising, and dollar credit risks are increasing. Gold prices will likely shift upward, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price Tracking - On January 13, 2026, London gold spot was at $4580.07/oz, London silver spot at $84.87/oz, COMEX gold at $4588.80/oz, and COMEX silver at $84.71/oz. The prices of AU2602, AG2602, AU (T + D), and AG (T + D) were 1027.18 yuan/g, 21030 yuan/kg, 1024.62 yuan/g, and 21030 yuan/kg respectively. Compared to January 12, 2026, the price increases were 0.1%, 0.6%, 0.0%, 0.4%, 0.1%, 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.4% respectively [3]. - On January 13, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 2.56 yuan/g, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was 0 yuan/kg. The gold and silver spreads between domestic and foreign markets and other price spreads also had corresponding values and changes from January 12, 2026 [3]. 3.2 Position Data - As of January 12, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR held 1070.8 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV held 16347.94785 tons. The non - commercial long, short, and net long positions in COMEX gold and silver also had corresponding quantities and changes compared to January 9, 2026, such as a 0.59% increase in gold ETF - SPDR and a - 6.18% decrease in COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On January 13, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 98283.00 kg, a 0.65% increase from January 12, 2026, and SHFE silver inventory was 630066.00 kg, a - 3.01% decrease. COMEX gold and silver inventories also had corresponding values and changes [3]. 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On January 13, 2026, the USD/CNY central parity rate was 7.01, with a - 0.01% change from January 12, 2026. The dollar index, U.S. Treasury yields, VIX, S&P 500, and NYWEX crude oil also had corresponding values and changes [3]. 3.5 Market Review - On January 13, the Shanghai gold futures main contract rose 1.01% to 1027.18 yuan/g, and the Shanghai silver futures main contract rose 5.9% to 21004 yuan/kg [3]. 3.6 Influencing Factor Analysis - Geopolitical risks and the Fed's independence crisis support the strong rise in precious metal prices. The U.S. December data on inflation makes the market increase bets on Fed rate cuts, further driving precious metal prices. Silver's spot premium, futures structure, inventory situation, and the change in photovoltaic export tax - rebate policy also help release silver price elasticity [4]. 3.7 Medium - to - Long - Term Views - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed's easing cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties, increasing dollar credit risks, and the continued allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents will likely cause the center of gold prices to move upward. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [5].

Group 1 - Cryptocurrency concept stocks have shown strong performance, with notable increases in share prices: Boyaa Interactive (00434) up 10.81% to 4.1 HKD, BlueFocus Interactive (08267) up 10% to 0.44 HKD, New Huo Technology Holdings (01611) up 7.09% to 3.17 HKD, and OK Blockchain (01499) up 6.9% to 0.217 HKD [1] - The cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant surge, with Bitcoin rising nearly 5% to surpass 95,000 USD, marking a new high for the year, while Ethereum has increased by over 7% [1] - Recent U.S. economic data shows that the December CPI met expectations, with core CPI year-on-year growth at 2.6%, below the expected 2.7%, and month-on-month growth at 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%, indicating a slowdown in core inflation and bolstering expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in April [1] Group 2 - Reports suggest that Wall Street star fund manager Cathie Wood predicts that Donald Trump may begin purchasing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve before the 2026 midterm elections to maintain political momentum and support from cryptocurrency voters [1]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 宏观组 2026年1月13日晚美国劳工部公布12月通胀数字。其中：同比CPI+2.7%，预期+2.7%，前值+2.7%；核心 CPI+2.6%，预期+2.7%，前值+2.6%。 美国12月CPI显示整体通胀保持平稳，但核心通胀表现显著低于市场预期。核心CPI同比持平于2.6%， 环比仅上涨0.2%，双双低于预期。这一结果被视为对通胀持续降温的更具说服力的确认，更清晰地显 示潜在通胀压力正在缓解。尽管食品、医疗等部分分项价格仍有上涨压力，但超级核心通胀同比增速降 至近月以来最低，表明通胀整体处于温和回落通道，向美联储2%的目标靠拢。 数据公布后，市场对通胀放缓的信心增强，风险资产反应积极：美股期货走高，美债收益、美元同步回 落。交易员进一步加大对美联储提前降息的押注，但多数仍预期6月为最可能启动降息的时点。核心 CPI低于预期强化了鸽派信号，缓解了市场对通胀反弹和政策过早转向的担忧。尽管1月FOMC会议预计 仍将维持利率不变，但此次数据为美联储在未来几个月内转向降息提供了更多依据。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 ...

Inflation Data - The US December 2025 CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching expectations and previous values[2] - The core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.7%[2] - Month-on-month, the seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3%, in line with expectations, while the core CPI rose by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%[2] Market Reactions - Following the CPI announcement, major asset prices showed narrow fluctuations, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices down by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.8% respectively[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield remained stable at 4.18%, while the US dollar index rose by 0.3% to 99.2[3] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts remained largely unchanged, with a near 0% probability for January and less than 30% for March[3] - The market anticipates approximately 2.1 rate cuts throughout 2026[3] Federal Reserve Leadership Uncertainty - Recent developments in the nomination of the new Fed chair have created uncertainty, with close probabilities for candidates Waller and Hassett[4] - Current chair Powell faces criminal charges, leading to discontent among Republican senators, which may impact the nomination process[4]

Group 1: Hot News - Trump to impose 25% tariffs on goods from countries doing business with Iran, increasing pressure on the Iranian government [3] - Global central bank officials to issue a statement in support of Fed Chair Powell after Trump administration's pressure [3] - Trump says US inflation data is very low and Fed should cut rates significantly; also mentions good economic growth data [3] - Traders think Fed may cut rates before Powell's term ends in May; 42% chance of a cut in April, up from 38% [3] - "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos says December CPI unlikely to change Fed's wait - and - see attitude [3] Group 2: Key Commodity Focus - Key commodities to focus on: silver, caustic soda, fuel oil, glass, PVC [4] Group 3: Night - session Performance Plate Performance - Non - metallic building materials: +2.04% - Precious metals: +33.11% - Oilseeds: +7.68% - Soft commodities: +2.94% - Non - ferrous metals: +28.74% - Coal, coking, steel and minerals: +9.65% - Energy: +2.22% - Chemicals: +9.48% - Grains: +1.13% - Agricultural and sideline products: +3.01% [4] Group 4: Plate Position - Shows the five - day change in commodity futures plate positions from January 7 to January 13, 2026 [5] Group 5: Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - Shanghai Composite Index: daily - 0.64%, monthly 4.28%, yearly 4.28% - SSE 50: daily - 0.34%, monthly 3.36%, yearly 3.36% - CSI 300: daily - 0.60%, monthly 2.83%, yearly 2.83% - CSI 500: daily - 1.28%, monthly 9.08%, yearly 9.08% - S&P 500: daily - 0.19%, monthly 1.73%, yearly 1.73% - Hang Seng Index: daily 0.90%, monthly 4.75%, yearly 4.75% - German DAX: daily 0.06%, monthly 3.80%, yearly 3.80% - Nikkei 225: daily 3.10%, monthly 6.38%, yearly 6.38% - UK FTSE 100: daily - 0.03%, monthly 2.07%, yearly 2.07% [6] Fixed - Income - 10 - year Treasury bond futures: daily 0.06%, monthly - 0.01%, yearly - 0.01% - 5 - year Treasury bond futures: daily 0.04%, monthly - 0.13%, yearly - 0.13% - 2 - year Treasury bond futures: daily 0.00%, monthly - 0.12%, yearly - 0.12% [6] Commodity - CRB Commodity Index: daily 0.00%, monthly 1.76%, yearly 1.76% - WTI crude oil: daily 2.72%, monthly 6.30%, yearly 6.30% - London spot gold: daily - 0.28%, monthly 6.19%, yearly 6.19% - LME copper: daily - 0.40%, monthly 5.28%, yearly 5.28% - Wind Commodity Index: daily 1.21%, monthly 13.07%, yearly 13.07% [6] Other - US Dollar Index: daily 0.29%, monthly 0.93%, yearly 0.93% - CBOE Volatility Index: daily 0.00%, monthly 1.14%, yearly 1.14% [6] Group 6: Main Commodity Trends - Shows trends of various commodities including BDI, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold and silver, LME copper, etc., as well as ratios like gold - oil ratio and copper - gold ratio, and stock market risk premiums [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the strong rebound of the US dollar, which has raised concerns about the potential peak of the gold market, despite a supportive low inflation environment for gold prices [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - On January 14, gold prices experienced a slight increase, trading around $4617 per ounce, after reaching a historical high of $4634.33 per ounce on January 13, before closing at approximately $4586 [1]. - The US dollar index rose by 0.3% to 99.18, following strong employment data, which has increased the dollar's attractiveness and subsequently raised the holding costs of gold for international buyers [2]. - The release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December showed mild inflation, which was expected to support gold prices but instead led to a complex market reaction, causing gold to retreat from its highs [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a consolidation phase, with resistance at $4625 and potential for further upward movement if this level is breached [3]. - Short-term indicators suggest a bearish sentiment, with the possibility of a price drop to around $4520 if the support level at $4570 is broken [5]. - The market is advised to focus on upcoming economic data releases, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales, which could further influence gold and dollar movements [2]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include selling on rebounds near $4620-$4625 with a target of $4580-$4550, and buying on dips around $4520-$4525 with a target of $4550-$4570 [6]. - Emphasis is placed on strict risk management, including setting stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses in volatile market conditions [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry investment rating [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a high - level range - bound, and investors should be vigilant about potential price corrections. Attention should be focused on marginal changes in cost, supply, and demand [4] 3. Summary by Key Points Market Performance of Lithium Carbonate - The main contract of lithium carbonate continued its strong trend after opening yesterday, with the disk price hitting the daily limit of 174,600 yuan/ton and closing at 166,980 yuan/ton. Trading volume increased to 608,200 lots, and open interest decreased to 460,300 lots. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, and the number of warehouse receipts increased to 26,900 lots [3] - The average price of SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate in the spot market was 159,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was - 7,480 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Side Analysis - Last week, raw material prices increased by more than 9% week - on - week, strengthening cost support [4] - The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate decreased by 1.05% week - on - week. The operating rates of spodumene and salt - lake lithium decreased slightly, while those of lithium - mica and the recycling end increased slightly. The total output of SMM lithium carbonate increased by 0.5% week - on - week, and production capacity was further released [4] Demand - Side Analysis - There was significant structural differentiation on the demand side. Last week, the production of SMM lithium - iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased by 3.3% and 1.3% week - on - week respectively, and inventory was destocked. The production of SMM power cells decreased slightly, while SMM new - energy vehicle sales and penetration rate reached new highs, and the production schedule of SMM energy - storage cells increased slightly, supporting demand [4] Inventory Situation - Last week, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample increased by 0.3% week - on - week, showing the first sign of inventory accumulation. The total inventory days increased slightly to 28 days [4] Policy Impact - In 2026, policies such as car trade - in subsidies, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, the Qinghai Salt - Lake Industry Plan, the key points of energy - storage development during the 14th Five - Year Plan, and a series of arrangements from the Central Economic Work Conference jointly support the long - term balance of supply and demand [4] - On January 4th, the State Council's "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" strengthened constraints on the supply side, which may intensify short - term supply shortages. On January 9th, the two departments announced a reduction in the battery export tax - refund policy, which may trigger short - term export - rush demand [4]