美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至 3.5%至3.75%之间。 鲍威尔表示，目前通胀率超过美联储2%的目标主要是由于特朗普政府提高进口关税所致。他重申，关 税对通胀的影响可能只是"一次性的价格上涨"。（央视记者） 10日，美联储主席鲍威尔就委员会降息决定发表讲话10日，美联储主席鲍威尔就委员会降息决定发表讲 话。鲍威尔表示，美联储的货币政策行动以促进美国民众充分就业和物价稳定的双重使命为指导。在当 日的会议上，委员会决定降息25个基点，短期内通胀风险偏向上行，就业风险偏向下行，形势充满挑 战。通过当日的决定，委员会在过去三次会议上已累计下调政策利率0.75个百分点。此举有助于稳定劳 动力市场，并在关税影响消退后，使通胀恢复至2%的下降趋势。 鲍威尔称，财政政策将保持支持性。人工智能支出将继续，消费者支出也将继续。因此，明年经济增长 的基本预期应该是稳健的。 鲍威尔称，自9月以来，委员会对政策立场的调整使其处于中性预期范围内，这使他们能够根据最新数 据、不断变化的经济前景以及风险平衡，更好地确定政策利率进一步调整的幅度和时机。 鲍威尔表示，在联邦公开市 ...

新华财经北京12月11日电 美联储于周三（12月10日）宣布实施年内第三次降息，将联邦基金利率目标 区间下调25个基点至3.5%至3.75%之间，同时表示将增加短期国债购买，美债收益率应声下跌。 美国财政部数据显示，10年期美债收益率10日下跌5个基点至4.13%，2年期美债收益率下跌7个基点至 3.54%。其余中短期美债收益率普遍下跌4-6个基点，超长端表现稍稳，收益率下跌2-3个基点。 美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至 3.5%至3.75%之间，符合市场预期。这是美联储自今年9月以来连续第三次降息，也是美联储自2024年9 月启动本轮降息周期以来的第六次降息。 委员会在会后发表声明说，经济活动在温和扩张，新增就业今年放缓，失业率在9月升高，通胀在今年 早些时候走高后依然在一定程度上处于高位。美国经济前景面临的不确定性依然处于高位，就业市场下 行风险在最近几个月升高。 转自：新华财经 美联储还认为，储备金余额已降至充足水平，将根据需要开始购买短期国债，以长期维持充足的储备供 应。 据美联储主席鲍威尔介绍，首月购买规模将为400亿美元，且未来数月可 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core Views - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and there were differences within the committee. The US faces challenges of rising prices and a cooling labor market. The market shows different trends for various commodities, with some in a state of shock, some with potential for short - term rebound, and others facing supply - demand imbalances [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals Gold and Silver - Gold prices were affected by the Fed's interest rate cut. Silver reached a new high, breaking through 60. The market showed certain price fluctuations and trading volume changes [14][18]. Copper - The decline of the US dollar supported copper prices. There were some impacts on supply from mining companies, and China's copper imports increased year - on - year [22][24]. Zinc - Zinc prices fell from a high level, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory [25]. Lead - The reduction in inventory limited the decline of lead prices [28]. Tin - There were disturbances in tin supply [31]. Aluminum, Alumina and Casting Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum prices continued to fluctuate, alumina had a slight rebound, and casting aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum [34]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum faced obvious pressure at the upper level, while palladium fluctuated upward [39][41]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The structural surplus of nickel changed, but the game contradictions remained unchanged. The supply and demand of stainless steel continued to be weak, and the cost - support logic was strengthened [43]. Lithium Carbonate - The news of large - scale production resumption was repeated, and the price was in a high - level shock [48]. 3.2 Industrial Minerals Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, the price was affected by factors such as inventory and cost. The details of the equity of the polysilicon platform company were announced, and the market suggested buying on dips [51][53]. Iron Ore - The downstream demand space of iron ore was limited, and the valuation was high [54]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Affected by the sentiment of the real estate sector, rebar and hot - rolled coil prices were in a low - level shock [57][60]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Both ferrosilicon and manganese silicon were in a wide - range shock [62]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke and coking coal prices were in a wide - range shock [65]. Logs - Log prices were in a low - level shock [69]. 3.3 Chemicals Paraxylene (PX), Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) and Monoethylene Glycol (MEG) - PX was in a high - level shock market with cost support. PTA had cost support and was suitable for positive spread trading. MEG's device production cut scale expanded, and the downward space was limited [73][81]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber was in a shock operation, and synthetic rubber was in a range operation [84][87]. Asphalt - Due to geopolitical factors, asphalt had a phased slight rebound [91]. Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) and Polypropylene (PP) - LLDPE prices fell unilaterally, and the basis weakened again. PP faced upstream selling pressure, and the price difference between powder and granular materials was inverted [103][105]. Caustic Soda - It was not advisable to chase short positions in caustic soda, as it faced high - production and high - inventory situations [108][109]. Pulp - Pulp prices were in a shock - upward trend. Although there was no significant change in the supply - demand fundamentals, the market was affected by factors such as low - valuation capital speculation [9][114]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets was stable, but the market faced problems of weak demand and high inventory [117][118]. Methanol - Methanol prices were under pressure. In the short term, it was in a weak operation, and in the medium - term, the high - supply pressure was the main contradiction [120][123]. Urea - Urea prices were in a shock operation. The demand side improved stage by stage, and the price was supported by the reduction of inventory, but there was also policy pressure [125][128]. Styrene - Styrene was in a short - term shock. The pure benzene market was in a bottom - shock state, and the supply pressure of styrene was not large [129][130]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changed little, with stable prices and weak downstream demand [132]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and Propylene - LPG prices had wide - range fluctuations affected by cost factors. Propylene supply had an incremental expectation, and the upward driving force was limited [135][136]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - PVC prices were in a low - level shock. The high - production and high - inventory structure was difficult to change in the short term [144][145]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices continued to decline, and the center of the low - sulfur fuel oil market shifted downward at night [147]. 3.4 Shipping - The PA alliance's performance exceeded expectations, driving the sentiment of the container freight index (European line) to improve. The 2602 contract was in a shock market in the medium - term, and it was advisable to short the 2604 contract on rallies [149][161]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Both short fiber and bottle chip faced medium - term pressure, and it was advisable to short the processing margin on rallies [163][164]. Offset Printing Paper - It was advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper, with stable prices and weak market demand [166][167]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene was in a short - term shock, with inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand in the short term, but the supply was expected to shrink in the future [171][172]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Palm oil was expected to have a short - term rebound after the release of negative factors. Soybean oil fluctuated mainly due to insufficient driving force from US soybeans [174][179]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Soybean meal might follow the rebound of US soybeans. Soybean prices were in a shock [180][183]. Corn - Corn prices were in a shock operation, with price changes in different regions [184][185]. Sugar - Sugar prices were in a low - level shock, with different production and consumption situations in domestic and international markets [190][193]. Cotton - Cotton prices were in a shock - upward trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [195][197]. Eggs - Egg spot prices were in a shock [199]. Hogs - The market had already priced in the Winter Solstice expectation in advance, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [201][202]. Peanuts - Attention should be paid to the peanut spot market, with stable prices in most regions and small - scale price fluctuations in some areas [205][206].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economy shows resilience, with the IMF predicting growth rates of 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, up 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from the October forecast [2][16] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.50%–3.75%, and will start a monthly short - term Treasury purchase plan of about $40 billion from December 12 [3][14] - The Asian Development Bank raised the regional economic growth forecast for 2025 to 5.1% and slightly increased the 2026 forecast to 4.6% [17] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, social financing scale increment was 816.1 billion yuan, down from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month but up from 1412 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, up from 0.2% in the previous month; PPI fell 2.2% year - on - year, down from a 2.1% decline in the previous month [1][2] Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China's November CPI was in line with expectations, and the increase was mainly driven by the change of food prices from decline to rise. PPI was slightly lower than expected, with a 0.1% month - on - month increase [2] - The Fed cut interest rates and will start a short - term Treasury purchase plan. The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the margin and price limit for silver futures contracts [2][3] - The container shipping index (European route) futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange mostly rose, with the February contract leading the gain [3] Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose due to the Fed's interest rate cut. Indonesia may impose export tariffs on gold. Copper production at some Chilean mines changed in October [5] - As of December 10, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF decreased. The inventory of some metals on the London Metal Exchange changed significantly on December 9 [5][6] Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - Argentina approved a copper mining project, and the copper production of Escondida Mine in Chile increased in October [8] Energy and Chemicals - The seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker by the US increased short - term supply risks, and the Fed's interest rate cut pushed up oil prices, but global oversupply limited the increase [9] - EIA adjusted its forecast for US crude oil production in 2025 and 2026. US natural gas inventory decreased last week [9] - Saudi companies will develop oil and gas fields in Syria, and an Iraqi oil field resumed production [10] Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will launch a consumption promotion activity for agricultural products. US soybean crushing volume in October and Malaysia's palm oil situation were reported [11][12] Financial News Compilation Open Market - On December 10, the central bank conducted 189.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 110.5 billion yuan [13] Key News - The Fed cut interest rates, started a short - term Treasury purchase plan, and the dot - plot predicted further rate cuts in 2026 and 2027 [14][15] - China's November CPI rose and PPI fell. The IMF and ADB raised their economic growth forecasts for China and Asia respectively [16][17] - The Ministry of Finance will renew 750 billion yuan of special Treasury bonds and issued 7 billion yuan of RMB Treasury bonds in Hong Kong [17][18] - Some banks' business operations and market - related events such as the launch of green foreign debt business in Shenzhen and the release of a new CDS index were reported [19][20] Bond Market Review - China's bond market continued to be warm, with most interest - rate bond yields falling and Treasury bond futures rising. Money market rates mostly declined [23][24][25] - European bond yields rose, while US bond yields fell [27][28] Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB appreciated against the US dollar, and the US dollar index fell [29] Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the RMB's recent appreciation is due to internal economic fundamentals and external factors, which will have an impact on exports and imports [30] - Huatai Securities believes that the global central bank's policy stance may diverge in the next two weeks, and the global manufacturing cycle is expected to recover [30] Today's Reminder - On December 11, a large number of bonds will be listed, issued, have payments made, and have principal and interest repaid [31][32] Stock Market Key News - A - shares recovered after hitting the bottom. The Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose. Real estate stocks rose in the afternoon [33] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose, with property stocks performing strongly. Southbound funds had a net outflow [33]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist. Treasury bond futures are under both upward pressure and downward support, and will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there are still medium - and long - term easing expectations [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded yesterday. In the medium and long term, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented next year, and with a strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the monetary policy environment will be loose, and there is an expectation of a cut in policy interest rates, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, there is a lack of short - term necessity for interest rate cuts, and the concentrated supply of treasury bonds in the first quarter of next year will bring certain pressure, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures in the short term [5]

由于美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的讲话并未像市场预期的那样鹰派、且美联储宣布自12月12日起每月购买400亿美元短期国债，美元下跌，美债及贵 金属则应声走高。 数据显示，美元指数(DXY)跌0.59%，报98.64;Bloomberg美元现货指数收跌0.4%，创9月16日以来最大单日跌幅。美债方面，各期限美债收益率全线下跌， 从数月高位回落。截至发稿，对美联储政策敏感的两年期美债收益率跌至3.524%，10年期美债收益率则跌至4.14%。随着美元和美债收益率走低，贵金属走 高。截至发稿，现货黄金小幅上涨至4232.90美元/盎司，现货白银涨至61.90美元/盎司。 美联储联邦公开市场委员会周三如期降息，以9比3的投票结果决定将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至3.5%-3.75%区间。该委员会还在声明中微调措辞，暗示对 未来降息时点的判断存在更大不确定性。 鲍威尔在利率决议公布后的新闻发布会上表示，目前的政策调整有助于稳定正在趋弱的劳动力市场，同时维持足够紧缩的条件以压制通胀。他表示："随着 关税影响逐步消退，此次进一步政策正常化应能支撑就业，并让通胀重新向2%的目标回落。" 对于通胀，鲍威尔强调，目前通胀率超过 ...

报道称援引鲍威尔的话称，进一步降息将更难证明其合理性。他数次强调，美联储今年已经降息了三次。"我们已做好充 分准备，静观其变。"鲍威尔说。 美国总统特朗普同日则对美联储此次降息表示，经济增长并不意味着通货膨胀，即使出现通货膨胀也没关系，可以减缓通 货膨胀。特朗普还说，降息幅度太小，本可以更大。 【环球网报道 记者 索炎琦】美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25个基点至3.5%至3.75%之间。这是美联储继今年第三次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第六次降息。据美国有线电视新闻网 （CNN）当地时间10日报道，在会后新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，目前的降息幅度已经足够。 近期，特朗普多次因美联储货币政策公开批评鲍威尔。今年1月再次就任总统后，特朗普反复批评鲍威尔，指责美联储降 息过慢，并威胁解除鲍威尔职务。美联储能否保持货币政策独立性引发广泛担忧。此前，美联储主席候选人、白宫国家经 济委员会主任哈西特表示，美联储有充足的降息空间，可能还需要进一步降息。哈西特称，更强劲的经济数据可能支持降 息50个基点。哈西特表示，特朗普将在未来一两周内决定美联储主席人选。 ...

新华社纽约12月10日电（记者刘亚南）美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将 联邦基金利率目标区间降至3.5%至3.75%，符合市场预期。这是美联储货币政策会议自9月以来连续第 三次降息，也是自2024年9月启动本轮降息周期以来第六次降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year, aligning with market expectations [1][6][21]. Economic Indicators - China's November CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, while the core CPI increased by 1.2%, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for three consecutive months [1][8]. - The PPI in November decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the producer sector [12]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's rate cut, U.S. stock indices rose, with the real estate sector leading gains and the banking sector lagging [3][11]. - The 10-year government bond yield increased to 1.84%, reflecting a slight uptick in bond market activity [12]. Trade and Investment Trends - Exports in November grew by 5.7% year-on-year, significantly accelerating compared to October, showcasing resilience in foreign trade [12]. - The central government's economic policy emphasizes a stable and efficient approach for the upcoming year, with a focus on proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing [12]. Commodity Insights - Copper prices fell in the overnight market, with supply constraints continuing to impact the market dynamics [19]. - The aluminum market is expected to remain optimistic in the medium to long term due to limited supply and low inventory levels, despite current seasonal demand weaknesses [21]. Industry Developments - The retail industry is set to transition towards quality-driven and service-oriented growth, as highlighted in the recent national retail conference [9]. - The energy sector anticipates a potential increase in U.S. oil production, with projections for 2025 indicating a daily average of 13.61 million barrels [13].

北京时间12月11日凌晨，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.5%至3.75%，符 合市场预期。 美联储同时宣布，将启动短期国债购买计划，以此调节市场流动性水平，确保央行对自身利率目标体系 保持稳定控制。 美联储在季度经济展望中上修经济预测，通胀预测小幅下修，就业市场基本稳定，备受关注的点阵图预 测明年或仅降息1次，与9月一致。美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，目前联邦基金利率已处于中 性利率的大致预估区间内，完全有条件静观经济走势的变化。货币政策并非遵循预设路径，将在每次会 议上根据实际情况作出决策。 美联储决议声明显示，经济活动正以温和步伐扩张。今年以来，就业岗位增长有所放缓，失业率截至9 月已小幅上升。近期公布的更多指标也与上述趋势相符。通胀水平自年初以来有所抬头，目前仍处于偏 高区间。 美联储去年9月开启降息周期，今年已累计降息175个基点。不过其他国家和地区央行并未跟进美联储降 息步伐，周三晚间，加拿大央行就将关键政策利率维持在2.25%不变。加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆表示， 加拿大整体经济仍展现出显著韧性。尽管美国对汽车、木材、铝和钢等关键行业征收25%至50%的关 税，加拿大 ...