金银为盾，稀土为矛 20251012 摘要 中国稀土出口管制及美国寻求海外稀土资源，使稀土板块重回投资者视 野，尽管有色板块情绪主要集中于贵金属和基本金属，但当前市场变化 可能推动稀土板块阶段性上行。 美国与巴基斯坦洽谈稀土矿产合作，对中国稀土产业链及进出口构成潜 在威胁，美国试图通过建立新港口控制周边矿产资源，对中国形成挑战。 中国采取对等反制措施，对稀土品种实施产品管辖，应对美国的长臂管 辖政策。美国投资加拿大矿业公司和澳大利亚 Fortescue，开发阿拉斯 加矿产，并试图控制格陵兰岛大型稀土矿，但这些项目短期内难以威胁 中国稀土产业链。 中国将进一步重组国内稀土冶炼厂，通过中西、北西两大主体并购不合 规冶炼厂，提高加工费并提升盈利能力。预计加工费将显著上涨，并通 过线上采购增加提高价格定价及监控能力，推动价格端上行。 黄金突破 4,000 美元/盎司，白银突破 50 美元/盎司，市场对此存在分歧。 贸易摩擦催化贵金属边际效应，预计黄金价格将继续上涨。LME 白银租 借利率超过 30%，库存固化导致流通量低，加剧银价上涨。 明年降息预期利好贵金属和工业金属，因此继续看好黄金、白银及相关 标的，包括一线票 ...

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 10 月 12 日 美国关税冲击再起，关注黄金、稀 土等板块 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20251006-20251010 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.37%，深证成指下跌 1.26%，沪深 300 下跌 0.51%，有色金属（申万） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The recent U.S. Treasury market shows a significant rebound driven by interest rate cuts. With increasing signs of economic slowdown and delayed release of key data due to government shutdown, the market is fully betting on monetary easing. The probability of a 25bp rate cut in October is nearly 98%, and the probability of a cumulative 50bp rate cut by the end of the year exceeds 96%. This has led to a decline in the yields of 5 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasuries, indicating a sharp drop in market risk appetite and a return of safe - haven demand. At the same time, the decline in oil prices and the easing of the Middle East situation have strengthened the expectation of inflation decline, further increasing the buying of U.S. Treasuries and creating a loose resonance in the global bond market [6]. - However, the long - term support for U.S. Treasuries is undergoing structural changes. Foreign central banks are reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries and increasing their gold reserves, reflecting a decline in trust in U.S. dollar assets. The market is worried about the U.S. debt reaching $37 trillion and the annualized interest expenditure exceeding military spending, which may trigger a debt critical - point risk. In the long run, the core logic of U.S. Treasuries is shifting from a simple safe - haven asset to a focus of the game between trust and risk re - balance. Short - term trends are dominated by interest rate cut expectations, while long - term trends depend on the U.S. fiscal path, international capital allocation, and re - verification of inflation data [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. U.S. Treasury Yield Review - As of October 10, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped 15bp in two weeks, falling to 4.05%. Compared with two weeks ago, the 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped 11bp, and the 30 - year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped 14bp. Both short - and long - term bond yields have declined in the past two weeks [2]. 2. U.S. Treasury Market Changes - In terms of actual bond issuance, the duration of U.S. Treasury issuance increased slightly in early October. The issuance amounts were $57.84 billion for 3 - year, $38.92 billion for 10 - year, and $21.96 billion for 30 - year bonds. The U.S. fiscal deficit in August was $344.8 billion, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit slightly declined to $1.89 trillion [2]. 3. Derivatives Market Structure - The net short positions in U.S. Treasury futures have slightly declined. As of September 23, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers have dropped to 5.738 million contracts. Meanwhile, the federal funds rate futures market remains in a net short position, rising to 395,400 contracts [2]. 4. U.S. Dollar Liquidity and U.S. Economy 4.1 Monetary Policy - On September 18, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25bp to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut in nine months this year. The Fed's statement showed increased concern about the labor market by deleting the description of "robust labor market conditions" and adding statements about "slowing employment growth, a slight increase in the unemployment rate, and increased risks of employment decline" [3]. 4.2 Fiscal Policy - As of October 8, the U.S. Treasury's TGA deposit balance increased by $2.572 billion on a two - week - on - two - week basis, indicating fiscal money withdrawal [3]. 4.3 Economic Indicators - As of October 4, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.42 (2.07 two weeks ago), showing that the economy has improved after a short - term stabilization [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overseas market was significantly impacted by various factors this week, including government shutdowns, potential tariff hikes, and central bank policies. Market volatility increased, and risk - averse sentiment rose sharply [1][7]. - The opinions of Fed officials were divided this week, but the market's expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 both increased [2][3]. - The US government shutdown continued to affect the economy, and the situation of Sino - US tariffs and trade relations was tense [4][5]. - The overall overseas economic situation showed mixed trends. Some indicators improved, while others declined, and the future economic outlook was still uncertain [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overseas Market One - Week Review - **Equity Markets**: US stocks rose first and then fell sharply on Friday. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq fell 2.43%, 2.73%, and 2.53% respectively for the week ending October 10. European and Asian markets also showed different trends, with the German DAX and London FTSE 100 falling, while the Nikkei 225 rose [11]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar rose this week. The government shutdown and tariff risks increased risk - averse sentiment, and the possible loose monetary policy of Japan's new prime - ministerial candidate also pushed up the dollar. The dollar index rose 1.13% for the week [11]. - **Interest Rates**: US Treasury yields declined. The government shutdown and tariff events increased expectations of interest rate cuts and risk - averse sentiment, leading to a rise in US Treasuries. The 2Y and 10Y US Treasuries yields fell 6bp and 8bp respectively for the week [12]. - **Commodities**: Gold rose, while crude oil and copper fell. The government shutdown and Sino - US trade conflicts increased the demand for safe - haven assets [12]. 3.2 Overseas Policies and Important News 3.2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - Fed officials' stances were divided this week. Kashkari and Barr were hawkish, Milan and Williams were dovish, and Musalem and Waller were neutral. The September FOMC meeting minutes showed that most officials thought further policy easing this year might be appropriate [27]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 increased. As of October 11, the probability of two more interest rate cuts this year rose to 91.7%, and the market expected three more cuts in 2026 [3]. 3.2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - **Government Shutdown**: It has lasted for 12 days, reducing the US economic output by about $15 billion per week. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI report on October 24, and the federal government employee lay - off process has officially started [4]. - **Sino - US Tariffs and Trade**: China implemented export controls on certain items, counter - measures against US 301 investigations, and an anti - monopoly investigation into Qualcomm. Trump said the US would impose a 100% tariff on China starting November 1 and implement export controls on all key software [5]. 3.3 Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.3.1 Overall Prosperity - Bloomberg's consensus expectations for GDP growth rates in the Eurozone and the US increased. As of October 10, Bloomberg expected the US economy to grow 1.79% in 2025 and the Eurozone economy to grow 1.3% [35]. - The Fed's real - time prediction model slightly lowered the GDP forecast. The New York Fed's Nowcast model lowered the Q3 US real GDP growth rate expectation to 2.34%, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model lowered it to 3.8% [37]. 3.3.2 Employment - The number of people receiving unemployment benefits decreased more than expected. As of the week ending September 20, the initial jobless claims were 218,000, and as of the week ending September 13, the continuing jobless claims decreased to 1.926 million [43]. 3.3.3 Demand - US retail sales slightly declined, airport security checks continued to be higher than last year. The real - estate market activity showed a significant recovery, with mortgage rates falling and mortgage application activity decreasing [49]. 3.3.4 Production - The production of US crude steel and the operation of refineries were stable, better than the same period last year. As of the week ending October 4, the weekly crude steel output was 1.749 million short tons, and the refinery capacity utilization rate was 92.4% [55]. 3.3.5 Shipping - International freight rates showed mixed trends this week. The Drewry World Container Freight Index (WCI) fell 1.1%, while the Baltic Dry Index, Panamax Freight Index, and Capesize Freight Index rose [57]. - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) fell. The export container indices of Ningbo and Shanghai rose, but the CCFI fell 6.7% week - on - week [60]. 3.3.6 Price - US retail gasoline prices continued to decline. As of October 10, the average price of AAA - grade gasoline was $3.089 per gallon. The inflation expectations in the US also decreased this week [62]. 3.3.7 Financial Conditions - The US financial stress index was stable. As of October 8, the OFR US financial stress index was - 1.12. The credit spread of CCC high - yield bonds rose, and the spread between SOFR and overnight reverse repurchase agreements decreased [66]. 3.4 Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders - Next week (October 13 - 17, 2025), key events include Fed Chairman Powell's speech, statements from multiple Fed officials, Sino - US tariff developments, and the release of US retail data, PPI inflation, and industrial output data (which may be delayed due to the government shutdown) [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The opening of the export window weakens the short - allocation value of SHFE zinc. Although the domestic supply pressure remains, the export window opening and the change in domestic TC make the short - allocation logic change marginally. The SHFE zinc price will be more sensitive to overseas macro - positive factors, and the linkage between domestic and overseas markets will strengthen. With the LME inventory below 38,000 tons and the overseas premium rising, there is still a warrant risk. Despite short - term fluctuations caused by the tariff trade war, the long - term interest rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the tariff impact [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - On October 10, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract closed at 22,270 yuan/ton, with a fluctuation of 0.32%, and the LME price closed at $2,984.5/ton, with a fluctuation of - 0.01%. The spot prices in East China, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 22,300 yuan/ton, 22,320 yuan/ton, and 22,310 yuan/ton respectively, with different changes in the premium/discount to the main contract compared to the previous period. The LME (0 - 3) premium was $66.80/ton, with a weekly change of + $7.69/ton [1] - The weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates by SMM was 3,500 yuan/metal ton, with a weekly change of - 150 yuan/ton, and the weekly processing fee index for imported zinc concentrates was $118.50/dry ton, with a weekly change of $2.60/dry ton. The import profit and loss of zinc concentrates was - 2,379.03 yuan/ton [1] - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises were 46.83% (a change of - 1.83% compared to last week), 46.51% (a change of - 0.35% compared to last week), and 56.08% (a change of - 1.24% compared to last week) respectively [1] Inventory - As of October 9, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven major regions was 150,200 tons, an increase of 8,800 tons compared to the previous week. The warrant inventory was 60,644 tons, and the LME zinc inventory was 37,950 tons [2] Profit - As of October 10, 2025, the production profit of smelting enterprises (excluding by - product income) was about - 436 yuan/ton. The sulfuric acid price in Inner Mongolia was 735 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous week. After adding by - product income, the profit was about 1,100 yuan/ton [2] Market Analysis - Domestic smelters have low enthusiasm for purchasing domestic zinc ores. The domestic TC and imported TC continue to diverge, and the domestic TC declines. Although the domestic supply has not changed significantly, the opening of the export window changes the short - allocation logic marginally. The LME inventory is below 38,000 tons, and the overseas premium is rising, with a warrant risk. The tariff trade war causes short - term fluctuations, but the long - term interest rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the tariff impact [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [3] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [3] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [4] - Options: Put on hold [4] Core View of the Report - The resurgence of tariff risks and the continuation of easing expectations have jointly pushed the gold price to continuously hit new historical highs. The U.S. federal government shutdown, although causing the delay of important economic data releases, is itself regarded as an obvious manifestation of fiscal risks, prompting the market to seek safe-haven assets and boosting the gold price. The uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate cut path remains high, but the market still expects a rate cut in October, which also supports the gold price. The silver price is currently strong, hitting a new historical high. There is a need to repair the gold-silver price ratio. However, due to the relatively large volatility of silver, more attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss execution when operating [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Macroeconomic Aspects - In the week of October 10, 2025, gold and silver continued their strong performance. U.S. President Trump announced that starting from November 1, a new 100% tariff would be imposed on Chinese imports, an additional part on top of the existing paid tariffs. The U.S. will also implement export controls on "all key software" on the same day, significantly increasing tariff risks. The bill proposed by the U.S. Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to obtain enough votes in the Senate, and the overall U.S. fiscal risk remains prominent. The minutes of the September FOMC meeting showed that there were increasing differences within the Fed regarding the future interest rate cut path. Although most officials supported further rate cuts this year, 7 officials believed that no further cuts were needed, and only Fed Governor Milan supported a larger 50-basis-point cut. The market has strengthened the pricing of a rate cut in October, with the Fedwatch showing a 98.3% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in October [1]. Fundamental Aspects - In the week of October 10, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 70,728 kilograms from the previous week, while silver warehouse receipts decreased by 23,221 kilograms to 1,169,061 kilograms. In the Comex inventory, this week's Comex gold inventory decreased by 170,212.58 ounces to 39,940,669.57 ounces, and Comex silver inventory decreased by 9,409,653.79 ounces to 522,463,797.41 ounces. In the precious metal ETFs, in the week of October 10 (currently the latest), the gold SPDR ETF holdings increased by 2.28 tons to 1,017.16 tons, and the silver SLV ETF holdings increased by 274.06 tons to 15,444 tons. As of September 23, 2025, in terms of CFTC positions, the net long speculative positions in gold increased by 0.13% to 266,749 contracts, and the net long positions in silver increased by 1.43% to 52,276 contracts. In the week of October 10, 2025, the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.51% from the previous week, the electronic components sector index related to precious metals fell by 2.49%, and the photovoltaic sector fell by 0.05%. As of September 29, 2025 (the latest), the photovoltaic price index was reported at 15.74, up 0.01 from the previous period. As of September 15, 2025, the photovoltaic manager index was reported at 119.66, a month-on-month decrease of 5.43 [2]. Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The resurgence of tariff risks and the continuation of easing expectations jointly push the gold price to continuously hit new historical highs. The U.S. federal government shutdown, although causing the delay of important economic data releases, is itself regarded as an obvious manifestation of fiscal risks, prompting the market to seek safe-haven assets and boosting the gold price. The uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate cut path remains high, but the market still expects a rate cut in October, which also supports the gold price [3]. - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The silver price is currently strong, hitting a new historical high. There is a need to repair the gold-silver price ratio. However, due to the relatively large volatility of silver, more attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss execution when operating [3]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [4]. - Options: Put on hold [4].

联邦基金期货目前显示，10月降息25个基点的概率为95%；12月再次降息的概率回落至80%。本周早些 时候公布的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要显示，委员们普遍支持降息，但对降息节奏尚未达 成明确共识——政府停摆导致通胀数据不完整，是节奏不明确的原因之一。 今日周六，外汇市场休市。周五（10月10日）美元指数突破100关口遇阻回落，最终收报98.83，跌幅 0.58%，尽管美联储内部存在部分反对声音，但美联储官员的表态强化了降息可能性，美元指数由此从 周四的两个月高点回落至99.33。 美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）周五表示，美联储应保持"谨慎"，但同时确认支持宽 松政策。 当前美国国债收益率走软、地缘政治风险重新显现、海外政治不确定性进一步施压，多重因素叠加下， 美元指数（DXY）或难以顺利突破100关口。该关口的阻力位仍未被突破，且在缺乏新经济数据或美联 储转向鹰派的情况下，美元走势短期上行空间受限。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a comprehensive adjustment, with all four major indices declining, indicating simultaneous pressure on both safe-haven and risk assets [1] - International gold prices have fallen below $4000 per ounce, while the U.S. dollar index has rebounded, and U.S. Treasury yields have risen, suggesting a subtle cooling of the market's expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The current government shutdown in the U.S. has led to a lack of key economic data, shifting market attention towards the earnings season [1] Group 2 - Despite strong earnings reports from Micron and TSMC, their stock prices did not respond as positively as expected, indicating a decreased sensitivity to positive earnings news in the market [1] - The market may require a "super surprise," such as significant investment announcements, to effectively boost market sentiment [1] - The technology sector's current momentum heavily relies on the internal circulation of the AI industry chain, where inter-company investments create a seemingly collaborative effect, but this could lead to systemic risks if any part of the chain falters [1] Group 3 - The S&P 500 index recently reached a new high, but has been oscillating within a narrow range of 6700-6750 points for over six trading days, reflecting a divergence between the index's strength and declining trading volume [2] - This situation indicates increasing divergence between bullish and bearish sentiments in the market, suggesting that a clearer catalyst is needed for future directional choices [2]

Group 1 - The current gold-oil price ratio is at its second-highest level in history, only behind the negative pricing phase during the 2020 pandemic, indicating significant divergence in pricing factors [1][2] - Oil pricing is fundamentally driven, while gold pricing is influenced by macroeconomic factors [2][4] Group 2 - Over the past decade, oil prices have closely followed the fundamentals, particularly OECD crude oil inventories, which are currently at a moderately low level [3] - Despite the low inventory levels, oil prices have started to decline due to market expectations of a continued loose fundamental environment for crude oil through 2026, leading to increased inventory accumulation [3] Group 3 - Gold prices have shown a nearly negative correlation with the US 10-year Treasury yield over the past decade, as gold is a non-yielding asset whose attractiveness is linked to real interest rates [4] - The anticipated interest rate cuts in the US starting September 2025, with a 25 basis point reduction, are expected to enhance gold's appeal as market expectations shift towards a rate-cutting cycle [4] Group 4 - The demand for gold from emerging market central banks has increased significantly since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - Strong buying interest in US Treasury futures has emerged, leading to a decline in US Treasury yields, with a significant flattening of the yield curve [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - US Treasury yields fell to intraday lows, decreasing by 4.5 to 7 basis points across the board [1] - The short end of the yield curve has priced in more easing expectations, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Expectations - The overnight index swap (OIS) linked to Federal Reserve meetings suggests an anticipated total rate cut of 46 basis points over the remaining two meetings this year, up from 44 basis points at Thursday's close [1]