Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The current expectation of interest rate cuts is the core driver for gold prices. US inflation and fundamental data are in line with this trend, causing gold prices to fluctuate at high levels. In the long - term, gold will still benefit from the contraction of the US dollar's credit [1][3]. - Although the continuous deterioration of non - farm data has temporarily suppressed the elasticity of silver prices, as the performance of US assets diverges and the market's trading of a soft landing continues to strengthen, silver prices are expected to challenge historical highs in the combination of a soft landing and interest rate cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Logic - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core driver. The 2 - year US Treasury bond has priced in the expectation of three interest rate cuts this year. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the quarterly FOMC meeting on the subsequent path. The central bank's gold - buying behavior continues, and geopolitical conflicts have resurfaced, which is favorable for gold allocation. In the long - term, gold benefits from the contraction of the US dollar's credit [3]. - **Silver**: The continuous deterioration of non - farm data has temporarily suppressed silver's elasticity. However, as the US recession expectation weakens, the obstacle to silver's elasticity is removed. Silver prices are expected to challenge historical highs in the combination of a soft landing and interest rate cuts [3]. 3.2 Outlook Next week, focus on the FOMC meeting guidance and US retail data. The weekly range for spot London gold is [3500, 3800], and for spot London silver is [39, 45] [3]. 3.3 Key Information - China and the US delegations are holding talks in Madrid to resolve trade tensions, and the US and China are close to reaching an agreement on TikTok [2]. - A drone invaded Romanian airspace during a Russian attack on Ukrainian infrastructure, forcing Romania to scramble fighter jets [2]. - The Fed will hold a policy meeting on September 16 - 17. There are uncertainties regarding the attendance list due to a lawsuit to dismiss a Fed governor and a pending Senate approval for a new appointment [2]. 3.4 Index Information - On September 15, 2025, the comprehensive index of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index is not detailed. The commodity index is 2239.53, up 0.50%; the commodity 20 index is 2507.34, up 0.37%; the industrial products index is 2254.68, up 0.90% [46]. - The precious metals index on September 15, 2025, has a daily decline of 0.27%, a 5 - day increase of 0.29%, a 1 - month increase of 7.34%, and a year - to - date increase of 31.79% [48].

Group 1 - The market is increasingly anticipating three interest rate cuts totaling 75 basis points by the end of the year, driven by the Jackson Hole meeting, weaker non-farm data, and annual data revisions [1] - Positive developments in trade relations include the US and Japan agreeing to lower bilateral tariffs to 15%, and constructive discussions between China and the US regarding economic issues such as TikTok, which have improved market risk appetite [1] - Silver prices have surged, breaking through the psychological barrier of 10,000 points, with increased market participation and sentiment [1] Group 2 - The main silver futures contract, Ag2512, has shown a continued upward trend, breaking previous resistance levels, although there are signs of weakening momentum in open interest and trading volume [1] - Technical indicators suggest a bullish bias, with key resistance levels every 200 points and support levels at the 10,000 mark and around the opening price of 9,910 on September 8 [1] - Caution is advised regarding potential market reactions following the FOMC's actual announcement of interest rate cuts, which may trigger profit-taking [3]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates a strong bullish trend in precious metals, particularly gold, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and concerns over economic conditions and geopolitical issues [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Analysis - Chaos Tiancheng Futures reports that precious metals maintain a strong trend due to unchanged market expectations for interest rate cuts, with overall liquidity remaining loose. Concerns over U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index have led to increased volatility, supporting gold prices [1] - CITIC Construction Futures notes that the U.S. economic data continues to show weakness, with the New York Fed manufacturing index dropping sharply by 21 points to -8.7, significantly below market expectations. This has reinforced the market's focus on interest rate cuts, providing strong support for precious metals [2] - Nomura Securities analysts suggest that the upcoming interest rate cuts are more of an "insurance" measure, indicating a gradual approach to monetary policy to avoid excessive inflation. This gradual easing is expected to suppress the dollar and yields, with a short-term target for gold prices set at $3,700 per ounce [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - Sprot Asset Management's strategist Paul Wong highlights that ongoing attacks on the Federal Reserve's independence by the Trump administration, coupled with inflation driven by tariffs, are raising concerns about stagflation. This trend may lead to a new era where gold replaces the dollar as the primary store of value [3] - As of the end of August, spot gold has seen a year-to-date increase of 31.38%, marking the best performance for the same period since 1979, positioning gold as one of the strongest asset classes this year [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international gold price has reached a new high, and the expectation of domestic policy strengthening has increased. The market's logic of betting on interest - rate cuts continues, and the prices of precious metals, copper, and other commodities are affected by various factors such as Sino - US relations, economic data, and Fed's interest - rate decisions [2][3]. - Different commodities show different trends. For example, precious metals are expected to be strong before the Fed's interest - rate cut in September but may face short - term corrections after the cut; copper prices are expected to oscillate upward; aluminum prices are macro - driven and remain strong; zinc prices are expected to slowly move up; lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term but need to pay attention to the callback risk; tin prices are expected to move into a consolidation phase; industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate; lithium carbonate prices may rise; nickel prices are cautiously bullish; oil prices are oscillating; soda ash prices are expected to oscillate, and glass prices may rise; steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound; iron ore prices are expected to be strong; and soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate, while palm oil prices are expected to adjust [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Situation - Overseas: Sino - US reached a framework agreement on TikTok, and the deadline may be extended. Before the FOMC meeting, the market's logic of betting on interest - rate cuts continued, with the US dollar index falling, US bond yields declining, the US stock market reaching a new high, and the gold price hitting 3685 and copper price reaching a 15 - month high. The Senate approved Trump's nominee for the Fed governor [2]. - Domestic: The economic data in August cooled down comprehensively. The market's expectation of policy strengthening increased, and an event to introduce policies to expand service consumption will be held on September 17. The A - share market oscillated narrowly, and the bond market was in a state of being insensitive to good news and sensitive to bad news [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - The prices of international precious metals continued to rise on Monday. The COMEX gold futures rose 0.90% to $3719.50 per ounce, and the silver price reached a nearly 14 - year high. Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates and the deterioration of US employment data strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The latest US economic data was weak. The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September has been fully priced in the market, and there may be one or two more cuts by the end of the year. The report that China may relax gold import and export regulations stimulated strong buying [4][5]. - Before the Fed's interest - rate cut on September 18, the prices of gold and silver are expected to remain strong. However, after the interest - rate cut, there may be a short - term correction due to profit - taking [5]. 3.3 Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated upward on Monday, and LME copper continued to rise after breaking through the integer mark. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper was dull. Sino - US reached a strategic framework consensus in the new - round negotiation. The market has basically confirmed a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut, with the possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut. The weakening of the US dollar index boosted the metal market. Freeport's copper - gold mine in Indonesia is still shut down [6][7]. - Given the positive macro - environment and the interruption of overseas mines and the approaching consumption peak season in China, copper prices are expected to oscillate upward in the short term [7]. 3.4 Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21020 yuan/ton, down 0.47% on Monday. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased. The market is almost certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, and the weakening of the US dollar index continued to boost aluminum prices. The inventory of aluminum ingots in the social market increased, and the consumption peak season needs to be verified. In the short term, aluminum prices will be macro - driven and remain strong [8]. 3.5 Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly during the day and strongly at night on Monday. The spot market trading was mainly among traders, and the downstream demand did not show signs of the peak season. The social inventory increased. The sharp decline of the US New York Fed Manufacturing Index and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the metal. The downstream consumption peak season has not yet appeared, and the inventory increase suppresses zinc prices, but the strong performance of LME zinc boosts Shanghai zinc. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to slowly move up [10]. 3.6 Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated during the day and its center of gravity moved down slightly at night on Monday. The inventory increased slightly, but the market expects downstream enterprises to stock up before the National Day holiday, so the impact on lead prices is limited. In the short term, lead prices are expected to remain strong in the oscillation, but attention should be paid to the callback risk due to insufficient consumption improvement [11]. 3.7 Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rose during the day and oscillated narrowly at night on Monday. The LME tin inventory has stabilized at a low level, and the liquidity risk has decreased. The domestic downstream consumption improvement is limited, and the inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. However, the shortage of tin ore raw materials has not improved, and the refinery's production has decreased. Tin prices are expected to move into a consolidation phase after the slowdown of the upward trend [12]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon oscillated strongly on Monday. The supply side is slightly shrinking, and the demand side shows signs of recovery. The social inventory has increased slightly. The price of the spot market has stabilized. The domestic anti - involution sentiment is fluctuating. Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [13][14]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate oscillated strongly on Monday. The supply has reached a new high, and the downstream consumption is good, but the supply pressure still exists. The short - term technical indicators are positive, and the downstream replenishment season has arrived. Lithium carbonate prices may rise, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in the inventory structure [15][16]. 3.10 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated on Monday. The Fed is approaching an interest - rate cut, and Indonesia's new round of RKAB approval is coming. The market's bullish sentiment is increasing, but the inventory pressure at home and abroad still exists. Nickel prices are cautiously bullish [17][18]. 3.11 Crude Oil - Oil prices oscillated strongly on Monday. OPEC + has a clear production - increase plan, and the supply pressure exists due to the approaching consumption off - season. However, geopolitical disturbances are frequent, and potential geopolitical risks may drive oil prices to rise periodically. Oil prices are expected to oscillate [19]. 3.12 Soda Ash and Glass - The main contract of soda ash oscillated strongly on Monday. Some soda ash production facilities are under maintenance, and the downstream's willingness to stock up before the National Day is high. However, the market is pessimistic about the future due to high inventory. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate. The glass market is generally stable, and some flat - glass enterprises have reduced prices to promote sales. The photovoltaic glass market is hot, but there is a risk of capacity reduction. Glass prices may rise [20]. 3.13 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel futures oscillated and rebounded on Monday. The macro - environment and cost support are positive, but the peak - season expectation of steel demand is difficult to be fulfilled. Steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound. Iron ore futures also oscillated and rebounded. The Sino - US economic and trade cooperation has reached a framework consensus, and the anti - involution policy expectation has increased. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is supported by the approaching National Day holiday. Iron ore prices are expected to be strong [21][22][23]. 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal declined on Monday. The US soybean harvest has started. The US soybean's excellent - rate and harvest progress are basically in line with expectations. The NOPA's soybean crushing volume in August was higher than expected. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory increased slightly, and the spot supply is sufficient. Soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate in a range [24][25]. 3.15 Palm Oil - Palm oil prices oscillated and adjusted on Monday. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates this week, the US stock market reached a new high, and the US dollar index oscillated weakly. India's palm oil imports in August remained strong, and the export demand of Malaysian palm oil in early September increased. Palm oil prices are expected to adjust in the short term [26][28].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [10] - Alumina: Neutral [10] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [10] Group 2: Core Views - The supply of electrolytic aluminum remains unchanged, consumption shows positive signs, and the transition from the off - season to the peak season is clear. With the weak US data and strong interest - rate cut expectations, the consumption at home and abroad is expected to strengthen seasonally. Pay attention to the destocking rhythm [6]. - The supply of alumina continues to increase, resulting in a surplus situation. Although the cost support is relatively strong and the further decline of the futures price is limited, the surplus pattern is difficult to change, and there is currently little upward momentum [7][8]. - Aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, with its price following the aluminum price. The tight supply of scrap aluminum and primary aluminum supports the price, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities may be affected by the activity of aluminum alloy [9]. Group 3: Key Data Summaries Aluminum - Spot prices: East China A00 aluminum price is 20950 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; Central China A00 aluminum price is 20820 yuan/ton; Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20900 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Futures prices: On September 15, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 21140 yuan/ton, the closing price is 21020 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - Inventory: As of September 15, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 63.7 million tons, up 1.2 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory is 75085 tons, up 2616 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory is 485275 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina - Spot prices: On September 15, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 3015 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 2980 yuan/ton, in Henan is 3050 yuan/ton, in Guangxi is 3200 yuan/ton, in Guizhou is 3220 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price is 340 US dollars/ton [2]. - Futures prices: On September 15, 2025, the opening price of the alumina main contract is 2916 yuan/ton, the closing price is 2935 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change of 0.44% [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Prices: On September 15, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil primary aluminum is 16200 yuan/ton, the procurement price of mechanical primary aluminum is 16400 yuan/ton, and the ADC12 Baotai quotation is 20600 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous day [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 7.08 million tons, and the in - plant inventory is 6.05 million tons [4]. - Cost and profit: The theoretical total cost is 20373 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is 27 yuan/ton [5].

Group 1 - Gold prices continue to rise, reaching historical highs with spot gold hitting $3689.56 per ounce and COMEX gold futures reaching $3728.4 per ounce on September 15 [1] - The market anticipates a new round of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve during its upcoming meeting on September 16 and 17, with President Trump expecting a "significant rate cut" announcement [1] - Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price forecast, predicting spot gold could exceed $4000 per ounce by Q1 2026, driven by strong investor demand and potential impacts on the Fed's independence pushing prices to $5000 [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities notes that while U.S. commodity inflation continues to rise, service sector inflation is slowing, and labor market data is weakening, suggesting that precious metals will benefit from these trends [2] - The recent fluctuations in precious metal prices indicate the need for investors to manage risks and control positions rationally [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant rise in spot gold prices, driven by a weak dollar, declining U.S. Treasury yields, and trade uncertainties due to new tariffs proposed by the U.S. government [1][3] - Gold prices have recently surpassed the previous record high of $3674 per ounce and are expected to challenge the $3700 per ounce level in the near future [1][3] - The market is anticipating a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming FOMC meeting, with a 5% chance of a 50 basis point cut, which has been largely priced in [3] Group 2 - Current trading strategies suggest that any pullback in gold prices should be viewed as an opportunity to enter long positions, as the prevailing trend is strongly upward [5] - The immediate support level for gold is identified at around $3663, with targets set towards $3690-$3700 [7]

Group 1 - Non-ferrous stocks experienced a collective decline in early trading, with Jiangxi Copper down 4.53% to HKD 25.3, China Aluminum down 4.35% to HKD 7.26, Luoyang Molybdenum down 3.87% to HKD 12.41, and Zijin Mining down 3.79% to HKD 28.42 [1] - Guotai Junan Securities noted that the US August CPI met expectations, and the weakening job market has led to rising interest rate cut expectations, positively impacting precious and industrial metal prices [1] - Citic Securities indicated that industrial metal prices are influenced by both financial and commodity attributes, with the Fed entering a rate cut cycle and global copper and aluminum inventories at relatively low levels, suggesting improved demand due to China's economic recovery and the new energy sector [1]

Report Date and Team - Report date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [2] Copper Price and Volatility - Latest copper price: 80,940 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [3] - Current volatility: 8.41%, and the historical percentile of current volatility is 6.3% [3] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops: - Sell 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts at around 82,000 yuan/ton [3] - Sell 25% of CU2511C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [3] Raw Material Management - For low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases: - Buy 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts at around 78,000 yuan/ton [3] Core Viewpoint - Copper price strength recently comes from lower - than - expected US inflation data boosting rate - cut expectations. Last week's US CPI and PPI data were within expectations, increasing rate - cut expectations. In the short term, copper price may stay around 81,000 yuan/ton. The impact of monetary policy on copper price may decrease. Fundamentally, the situation of weak supply and demand may continue. The supply - side tightness cannot be resolved in the short term, and demand remains weak. Overall, the copper price will be in a volatile state [4] Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The US reaches a tariff policy agreement with other countries [5] - Increased rate - cut expectations lead to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting non - ferrous metal valuations [5] - The lower support level rises [5] Bearish Factors - Tariff policy is unstable [6] - Global demand decreases due to tariff policies [8] - US copper tariff policy adjustments cause extremely high COMEX inventories [8] Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 80,940 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 80,940 | - 120 | - 0.15% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 80,900 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 10,189 | 124.5 | 1.24% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.04 | - 0.03 | - 0.37% | [7] Copper Spot Market Data | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 80,940 | 185 | 0.23% | | Shanghai Wumaohui | yuan/ton | 80,960 | - 30 | - 0.04% | | Guangdong Nanchu | yuan/ton | 80,920 | - 10 | - 0.01% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 81,070 | - 10 | - 0.01% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | yuan/ton | 80 | - 5 | - 5.88% | | Shanghai Wumaohui Premium | yuan/ton | 70 | 30 | 75% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium | yuan/ton | 95 | 25 | 35.71% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium | yuan/ton | 125 | 35 | 38.89% | [12] Copper Scrap Premium Data | Premium Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current scrap premium (tax - included) | yuan/ton | 2,063.83 | 118.62 | 6.1% | | Reasonable scrap premium (tax - included) | yuan/ton | 1,510 | 2.25 | 0.15% | | Price advantage (tax - included) | yuan/ton | 553.83 | 116.37 | 26.6% | | Current scrap premium (tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 6,800 | 125 | 1.87% | | Reasonable scrap premium (tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 6,321.4 | 15.61 | 0.25% | | Price advantage (tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 478.6 | 109.39 | 29.63% | [17] Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) | Warehouse Receipt Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE copper warehouse receipts | tons | 30,643 | 5,083 | 19.89% | | Total international copper warehouse receipts | tons | 11,473 | 4,000 | 53.53% | | SHFE copper warehouse receipts in Shanghai | tons | 1,658 | 77 | 4.87% | | Total bonded SHFE copper warehouse receipts | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total tax - paid SHFE copper warehouse receipts | tons | 30,643 | 5,083 | 19.89% | [21] London Metal Exchange (LME) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME copper inventory | tons | 152,625 | - 1,325 | - 0.86% | | LME copper inventory in Europe | tons | 22,575 | - 50 | - 0.22% | | LME copper inventory in Asia | tons | 130,050 | - 1,275 | - 0.97% | | LME copper inventory in North America | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME copper registered warehouse receipts | tons | 135,450 | 2,225 | 1.67% | | Total LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts | tons | 17,175 | - 3,550 | - 17.13% | [23] COMEX | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX copper inventory | tons | 311,847 | 6,068 | 1.98% | | Total COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts | tons | 149,213 | 779 | 0.83% | | Total COMEX copper cancelled warehouse receipts | tons | 162,634 | 136 | 0.08% | [24] Copper Import Profit and Processing Data | Data Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper import profit and loss | yuan/ton | - 138.53 | - 121.84 | 730.02% | | Copper concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 41.4 | 0 | 0% | [25]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal stocks experienced a collective decline in early trading, with Jiangxi Copper Co. down 4.53% to HKD 25.3, China Aluminum down 4.35% to HKD 7.26, Luoyang Molybdenum down 3.87% to HKD 12.41, and Zijin Mining down 3.79% to HKD 28.42 [1] - Guotai Junan Securities noted that the U.S. August CPI met expectations, and the weakening job market has led to rising expectations for interest rate cuts, positively impacting precious and industrial metal prices [1] - Citic Securities previously indicated that industrial metal prices are influenced by both financial and commodity attributes, with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle and global copper and aluminum inventories at relatively low levels, suggesting a potential improvement in demand due to China's economic recovery and the boost from the new energy sector [1]