Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, stated that the fragmentation of global trade has a negative impact on global economic growth [1] Group 1 - The fragmentation of global trade is identified as a significant issue affecting economic performance [1] - Bailey emphasized the importance of cohesive trade relationships for sustaining economic growth [1] - The statement reflects broader concerns regarding the implications of trade barriers and geopolitical tensions on the economy [1]

Global Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts a downward trend in global economic growth over the next 12 months, with global GDP growth expected to slow from 3.5% in Q4 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, primarily due to structural shocks from U.S. tariffs on global trade [2] - The U.S. GDP growth is forecasted to decline from 2.5% in Q4 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026, with trade tensions contributing to asymmetric risks [2][3] - The Eurozone and Japan are also expected to experience lower growth rates due to the impact of tariffs on exports and investments [2] U.S. Asset Allocation - Despite slowing global growth, Morgan Stanley suggests a positive outlook for U.S. assets excluding the dollar, recommending increased allocations to U.S. equities, U.S. Treasuries, and investment-grade corporate bonds [4][5] - The firm anticipates a significant depreciation of the dollar, predicting a 9% drop in the DXY index to 91 by mid-2026, as U.S. growth and yields converge with other developed economies [5] - U.S. stock market valuations have adjusted, but uncertainties regarding the full impact of tariffs remain, leading to a preference for high-quality cyclical and defensive stocks [5] Central Bank Policies - Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates until the end of 2025, followed by a reduction of 175 basis points in 2026, which is more aggressive than current market expectations [8] - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also projected to continue easing monetary policy due to weak economic growth and declining inflation [8] Commodity Market Trends - The oil market is expected to face oversupply in late 2025 and 2026, leading to a downward revision of Brent crude oil price forecasts by $5-10 per barrel [10] - Natural gas prices in Europe may rise due to low inventory levels and competition for liquefied natural gas, with potential prices reaching €40 per MWh [10] - Gold is favored due to strong central bank demand and inflows into gold ETFs, while industrial metals may face downward pressure from U.S. tariff policies [11] Credit Market Outlook - Optimism in the credit market has increased due to positive news regarding U.S.-China trade relations, prompting Morgan Stanley to lower credit spread forecasts across various regions [12][13] - The firm projects a tightening of credit spreads for U.S. investment-grade and high-yield bonds, reflecting improved market sentiment [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "long" rating for the global economy in the macro and finance sector [1] 2. Core View - The global economy maintains an upward trend, with factors such as the rise of US manufacturing PMI, the progress of US - EU tariff negotiations, the increase in container prices, China's economic data, and the recovery of European manufacturing all contributing to this positive outlook [1] 3. Summary by Related Contents Important Information - Asian life insurance's huge losses expose the systemic risk of dollar - asset maturity mismatch, and a capital shift from focusing on US assets to seeking alternatives has begun, with a "big retreat" of up to $7.5 trillion starting [1] - US National Economic Council Director Hasset said more trade agreements may be seen in the future, and tariffs on some countries may drop to 10% or lower [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, the sixth consecutive cut since last year, and warned about the threat of US trade policy to the global economy [1] - The yield of 30 - year Japanese government bonds rose 10 basis points to 2.93%, and the yield of 10 - year Japanese government bonds rose 6.5 basis points to 1.525% after weak demand in the 40 - year bond auction [1] - South Korean retailers' sales in April increased by 7% year - on - year due to strong demand for online food and grocery delivery services [1] - Goldman Sachs said tariffs will push the US core PCE inflation rate to rebound to 3.6% later this year, but it's a "one - time" price increase [1] - SpaceX's "Starship" ninth test flight ended in failure as the spacecraft disintegrated in the air due to cabin leakage [1] - Peru's Ministry of Economy and Finance plans to hold high - level meetings with China and Brazil to promote the "Two - Ocean Railway" project [1] Global Economic Logic - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52.3, reaching a three - month high [1] - The acceleration of US - EU tariff negotiations boosts market risk appetite [1] - The price of 40 - foot containers (FEU) on the Shanghai - US West Line on June 15 reached $9100, more than three times the average price in early May [1] - China cut the 1 - year deposit interest rate by 15 basis points to 0.95% [1] - China's total retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 5.1% year - on - year [1] - Germany's rearmament and the European Central Bank's interest rate cut promote the recovery of European manufacturing [1]

澳洲联储：全球贸易战对经济构成重大下行风险 金十数据5月20日讯，澳洲联储周二表示，由于受全球贸易紧张局势的连带影响，通胀率将下降，而失 业率将上升，即使假设降息幅度达到市场预期。澳洲联储在周二发布的季度货币政策声明中称，核心通 胀的降温速度略快于预期，服务业明显放缓。该央行还警告称，美国总统特朗普关税政策将拖低全球经 济增长率，并且总体上有助降低澳洲通胀率。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if trade tensions ease rapidly, global economic growth may accelerate, which could lead to a reduction in the extent of domestic interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia [1] Group 2 - The Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that the current trade environment is a significant factor influencing economic conditions [1] - A potential easing of trade tensions could positively impact both domestic and global economic outlooks [1] - The statement indicates a cautious optimism regarding future monetary policy adjustments based on external economic factors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The primary concern is the potential escalation of trade tensions into a trade war, which could significantly impact global economic growth, inflation, and asset prices [1] Group 1 - The current trade tensions are viewed as a major source of uncertainty in the global economy [1] - An escalation into a trade war could have profound implications for various economic indicators [1] - The potential effects on asset prices are highlighted as a significant risk stemming from trade conflicts [1]

Core Insights - Investor sentiment regarding global economic growth has improved, with a net 59% of investors expecting a slowdown, down from 82% in April [1] - The expectation of a recession has significantly decreased, with only a net 1% believing a recession is likely, compared to 42% in April [1] - The prevailing consensus among investors is a "soft landing," where inflation decreases without a significant economic slowdown or recession, with 61% of investors anticipating this outcome, up from 37% in April [1] - Expectations for a "hard landing" have dropped from 49% in April to 26% [1]

Group 1 - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April 2025 is reported at 49.1%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from March, indicating a contraction for two consecutive months [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.8%, a reduction of 0.5 percentage points from the prediction made in January [1] - The manufacturing PMI for Asia in April is at 50%, down 1.3 percentage points from March, while Africa's manufacturing has returned to a contraction phase [1][2] Group 2 - Asian developing countries are encouraged to leverage domestic market demand and continue advancing industrial upgrades and technological innovation to mitigate external uncertainties [2] - The stability of Africa's manufacturing sector remains weak, with significant fluctuations, prompting countries to enhance internal trade and investment through the African Continental Free Trade Agreement [2] - European manufacturing PMI stands at 48.4%, slightly up by 0.2 percentage points from March, while the Americas' PMI is also at 48.4%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating ongoing contraction in both regions [2] Group 3 - The European manufacturing sector is still in a contraction phase, with the European Central Bank acknowledging significant downside risks to the Eurozone economy [3] - Concerns regarding inflationary pressures due to external uncertainties are rising, with institutions like Goldman Sachs and UBS noting an increased risk of recession in the United States for 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The impact of global economic growth and global trade on Malaysia's exports will surpass the effects of currency fluctuations [1] Group 1 - Malaysia's Trade Minister emphasizes that external economic factors are more significant for export performance than local currency movements [1]

穆迪：美国关税可能对全球贸易和全球经济增长产生重大影响，并将影响泰国的开放型经济。 ...