Group 1 - The report highlights the increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, with the Federal Reserve signaling a "wait and see" approach, indicating a cautious stance towards inflation and employment data, while trade policy remains a critical variable [2][3] - The U.S. and U.K. have reached a preliminary trade agreement, reducing tariffs on U.K. car imports to a maximum of 10%, which reflects a potential baseline for future negotiations [2] - The report expresses a cautiously optimistic view on the Hong Kong stock market, noting a strong rebound due to new financial policies, but acknowledges ongoing external risks and market volatility [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market is expected to experience volatility, with the S&P 500 showing signs of pressure despite recovering from previous declines, influenced by trade negotiations and potential earnings pressures [5][6] - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market's rebound requires additional capital inflows and sustained policy support, with current inflows primarily from the southbound channel [3][18] - The report notes that global stock and bond ETFs have seen accelerated net inflows, particularly into European markets, while U.S. markets continue to experience net outflows [6][25]

2025 年 05 月 11 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 关税窗口期应如何博弈？ 策略周报 分析师：刘芳 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 1、《政治局会议临近，应如何布局？— 策略周报》2025-04-20 2、《关税对 A 股哪些行业影响较大？— 策略周报》2025-04-13 3、《关税迷雾叠加美股震荡，资产应如 何配置？—策略周报》2025-03-30 4、《科技主线重燃，二次上行可期 —策 略周报》2025-03-09 5、《从关税博弈到 AI+突围—策略周 报》2025-02-23 投资要点 分析师：郝一凡 【债市方面】新低后宜适度止盈。央行本周降息 10BP，降息幅度相对有 限，后续预计为应对关税影响，未来仍有降息空间。整体来看，在增量政策出 台前，利率仍有下行创新低的可能，新低或是止盈机会（十年期国债收益率止 盈区间 1.50-1.55%）。债 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of recent tariff negotiations on the A-share market, suggesting that the market sentiment has improved due to expectations of tariff easing and liquidity release from the central bank [3][10][12] - The central bank's recent actions, including a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point interest rate reduction, are expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, which is anticipated to support market stability [9][10] - The report indicates a shift in focus towards sectors such as low-volatility dividend stocks, banking, and public utilities, while also suggesting potential opportunities in technology and new consumption sectors like tourism and entertainment during market corrections [3][12] Group 2 - The bond market is expected to see further declines in yields, with a target range for ten-year government bond yields set between 1.50% and 1.55%, indicating a favorable outlook for short-term interest rate bonds [3][12] - The report notes that the A-share market's average daily trading volume has increased to 1,353.426 billion yuan, reflecting heightened market activity following the easing of tariff concerns and monetary policy adjustments [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming economic indicators, such as the U.S. CPI and China's M2 growth, which could influence market dynamics in the near term [21]

衍生无限未来 从情绪修复到政策组合拳再落地 -- "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"发布会点评 点石成金 一、发布会解读:金融政策多箭齐发 国新办5月7日举行新闻发布会，请中国人民银行行长、国家金融监督管理总局局长、中国证监会主 席介绍 "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。本次发布会干货内容满满，在4月的政治局会议 结合近几个月国际形势和国内经济运行的新特征针对性地给出了一些新的指导思想和后续任务部署之后, 本次国新办发布会拉开了政策落地的帷幕。 央行行长在发布会上发布了三类共10项具体宏观货币政策。央行全方面政策发力,强化逆周期调 节,央行此次带着全面的货币工具回归,425政治局会议的政策精神快速落实。实施好适度宽松的货币政 策，加大中长期流动性供给，保持市场流动性充裕。响应市场的期待，降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点， 预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元；阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率调降为 0%将大力度助力消费金融。全面降低市场利率，下调政策利率0.1%，即公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率 从目前的1.5%调降至1.4%，下调结构性货币政策工具利率0.25%，从总量和结构分别降低企 ...

上周（4月28日-5月2日）国际黄金市场波动加剧，贸易战走向扰动市场风险偏好并对金价构成剧烈影 响。亚洲时段的动能加持有所削弱，无论是期货市场还是ETF均呈现边际流出。 市场观点方面，五一假期前后（4.28~5.5）黄金市场呈现了先抑后扬的V型走势，在关税变局的影响 下，市场风险偏好大幅变动，也带动黄金波幅明显放大。 经历4月的快速拉涨后，黄金价格需要时间来进行消化整理，而近期逆风因素开始显现，关税博弈中特 朗普政府不断释放缓和信号，以及美国4月制造业PMI、非农就业数据小幅超预期，风险偏好的回升及 降息预期的回落短期压制金价表现。同时，亚洲区的获利了结资金也同步出现，时段内引领涨势的情况 不再，期货持仓一周内降幅近10%，国内各黄金ETF持仓也在呈现边际流出。 部分避险资金再次回到黄金市场 进入五一假日后段，国际金价于3200美元附近企稳，并快速回升至3300美元上方。前半段假日内引领风 险偏好回升的因素包括美国和乌克兰达成资源开发和重建协议；特朗普政府宣称将与韩国、日本和印度 有潜在的贸易协议，以及重要的与中国方面的接洽开始发生。但这一切在5月5日发生了戏剧性的转变， 首先是日本提出的全面豁免10%的对等 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of effectively preventing risks in key areas, the bond default risk in the future market will remain under control. However, due to the complex international situation and domestic economic challenges, five types of risks need attention: changes in the fundamentals and risk evolution of export - oriented enterprises under tariff games, uncertainties in debt repayment during the mergers and reorganizations of real - estate enterprises, uncertainties faced by traditional industries during transformation and upgrading, risks of delisting or market fluctuations of convertible bond issuers due to weakened fundamentals, and potential impacts on the solvency of some small and medium - sized financial institutions from multiple risk factors [4][20]. - In Q1 2025, the credit risk in the bond market was generally controllable, with a decrease in the number of new defaulting entities and low - level fluctuations in the rolling default rate. The risk differentiation continued, with private enterprises' risks being continuously cleared. The default exposure of real - estate enterprises slowed down, but they remained the main entities for bond extensions. Negative rating actions decreased, and the progress of default disposal was slow [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Review: Five Characteristics of Bond Market Credit Risk in Q1 1. Decrease in the Number of New Defaulting Entities and Low - Level Fluctuations in the Rolling Default Rate - In Q1, the bond market default risk was generally controllable. There were 3 new defaulting issuers, 1 less than the same period last year. The new default scale was 41.28 billion yuan. The monthly rolling default rate in the public offering market first rose and then fell, reaching 0.25% at the end of March, the same as at the end of 2024 [4]. 2. Continued Risk Differentiation and Continuous Clearance of Private Enterprises' Risks - Support policies for private enterprises have been upgraded this year, but the transmission has a time - lag. In Q1, the credit bond financing scale of private enterprises was limited, with issuance less than 140 billion yuan, accounting for about 3% of credit bonds, and a net outflow of nearly 1.6 billion yuan. The 3 new defaulting entities in Q1 were all private enterprises, and the scale of bond extensions by private enterprises was 5.687 billion yuan, accounting for 92% of the total [9]. 3. Slowdown in the Exposure of Real - Estate Enterprises' Defaults, but They Remained the Main Entities for Extensions, and Tail Risks Were Still Being Cleared - In Q1, the default release of real - estate bonds slowed down significantly, with no new defaulting entities. The scale of bond extensions by real - estate enterprises was 5.659 billion yuan, accounting for over 90%. As of now, the cumulative scale of real - estate bond extensions is nearly 200 billion yuan, about 65% of the bonds have been extended again or multiple times, and 27% of the extended bonds defaulted [12]. 4. Decrease in Negative Rating Actions, and All Entities with Downgraded Levels Were Convertible Bond Issuers - From January to March, there were 17 rating actions in the bond market, including 10 downgrades of issuer levels, 1 less than the same period last year. The 7 entities with downgraded levels were all convertible bond issuers, mainly due to weakened profitability, losses, and legal issues [16]. 5. Ordered Progress of Default Disposal, but Slow Progress in Substantive Repayment - In Q1, the disposal of defaulted bonds progressed in an orderly manner. The reorganization application of Shanshan Group was accepted by the court, and the reorganization plan (draft) of Contemporary Technology passed the vote of the creditor's meeting. As of the end of March 2025, the scale of bonds with disclosed completed disposal accounted for 19.2% of the total defaulted bonds, and the proportion of bonds that completed repayment or were delisted was only 16.9% [19]. Outlook: Default Risks Are Stable and Controllable under the Risk - Prevention Tone, and Five Types of Risks Need Local Attention 1. Pay Attention to the Possibility of Fundamental Changes and Risk Evolution of Export - Oriented Enterprises under Tariff Games - Under the current intensified tariff game, domestic export - oriented enterprises face multiple pressures such as rising costs and shrinking market shares. Exchange - rate fluctuations also affect their earnings. Small and medium - sized export enterprises are at higher risk, and industries such as machinery, textiles, and chemicals need attention [20]. 2. Pay Attention to the Uncertainty of Debt Repayment Caused by Derivative Risks during the Mergers and Reorganizations of Real - Estate Enterprises - As of the end of March 2025, the real - estate bond stock was about 1.57 trillion yuan, nearly 20% less than at the end of 2020. However, with the increase in industry concentration, some real - estate enterprises may face mergers, reorganizations, or liquidation, and the risks during the debt - resolution process need attention [21]. 3. Pay Attention to the Uncertainties Faced by Traditional Industries during Transformation and Upgrading - In the trend of industrial upgrading, traditional industries may face challenges such as shrinking demand and technological innovation. For example, traditional automobile dealers are affected by the direct - sales model of new - energy vehicles. The risk of traditional industries being squeezed out of the market needs to be highly concerned [22]. 4. Pay Attention to the Risks of Delisting or Market Fluctuations of Convertible Bond Issuers due to Weakened Fundamentals - Since 2025, the financial delisting rules have become stricter. About 46% of convertible bond issuers that disclosed annual performance forecasts expect losses in 2024. There is a risk of delisting and market fluctuations, and the uncertainty of repayment due to delisting or price drops needs to be vigilant [23]. 5. Pay Attention to the Potential Impacts on the Solvency of Some Small and Medium - Sized Financial Institutions from Multiple Risk Factors - Small and medium - sized financial institutions have experienced risk events in recent years. Multiple risk factors such as regional economic pressure, industry fluctuations, and their own operational weaknesses may affect their bond repayment ability. Attention should also be paid to the risks during mergers, reorganizations, and market exits [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is expected to be in a volatile state [1][2] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is bullish in the short - term [3] 2. Core Views Stock Index - The US ISM services index in April unexpectedly rose to 51.6, with the price index reaching a new high in over two years, and improvements in employment and new orders. US Treasury Secretary Yellen touts the US, saying that Trump's policy combination such as tax cuts will attract investment in the US, and the US GDP growth may approach 3% by this time next year. Pan Gongsheng attended and chaired the meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors of ASEAN, China, Japan, and South Korea, and the meeting passed relevant arrangements for a new rapid financing tool funded by freely usable currencies such as the RMB. With a relatively stable internal environment, high external uncertainties, and a potentially long - lasting tariff game, the stock index may fluctuate [1] Treasury Bond - The game of external shocks and the liquidity situation remain the main trading themes in the market. There is a time - lag effect in the transmission of external shocks to the domestic economy, and the potential depth of their impact has not fully emerged. Under the medium - to - long - term fundamental logic, the bond market is still in a favorable environment. On the first trading day after the holiday, the maturity volume of OMO is relatively concentrated. Continuously monitor whether the central level of capital interest rates can effectively decline to release the downward space for the short - and medium - term, which will also provide greater support for the long - term [2] 3. Market Reviews Stock Index - The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index fell 0.19%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index rose 0.06%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index fell 0.52%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index fell 0.97% [4] - On April 28, 2025, the closing price of the CSI 300 continuous contract was 3730.60 yuan per contract, down 0.19%, with a trading volume of 38,102 lots and an open interest of 134,340 lots; the SSE 50 continuous contract closed at 2628.00 yuan per contract, up 0.06%, with a trading volume of 21,403 lots and an open interest of 42,616 lots; the CSI 500 continuous contract closed at 5471.00 yuan per contract, down 0.52%, with a trading volume of 37,058 lots and an open interest of 96,080 lots; the CSI 1000 continuous contract closed at 5729.00 yuan per contract, down 0.97%, with a trading volume of 120,927 lots and an open interest of 159,258 lots [9] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year main contract rose 0.03%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.06%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01% [6] - On April 28, 2025, the closing price of the 10 - year treasury bond continuous contract was 108.84 yuan per contract, up 0.03%, with a trading volume of 57,270 lots and an open interest of 186,819 lots; the 5 - year treasury bond continuous contract closed at 105.91 yuan per contract, down 0.06%, with a trading volume of 45,830 lots and an open interest of 158,011 lots; the 30 - year treasury bond continuous contract closed at 120.18 yuan per contract, up 0.30%, with a trading volume of 67,316 lots and an open interest of 104,543 lots; the 2 - year treasury bond continuous contract closed at 102.32 yuan per contract, up 0.01%, with a trading volume of 33,165 lots and an open interest of 94,570 lots [9] 4. Technical Analyses Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the market is oscillating with a slightly bullish trend [5] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is oscillating with a slightly bullish trend [7]

来源：本文编译自eenews，谢谢。 如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 参照世界半导体贸易统计组织（WSTS）的实际月度销售数据显示，3月份全球芯片市场规模为 627.6亿美元。 欧洲芯片市场同比继续萎缩，但萎缩速度较前几个月有所放缓。与此同时，WSTS 追踪的所有其 他地理区域的芯片市场规模均同比有所增长。 增长最快的地区是美洲，该地区2月份芯片市场规模同比增长45.3%。日本和中国的芯片市场增长 率仅为个位数，而除日本和中国以外的亚太地区则实现了15.4%的强劲增长。 SIA首席执行官约翰·诺弗（John Neuffer）表示："全球半导体需求依然高涨，第一季度销售额大 幅超过去年同期。" 他补充道："受美洲地区约45%的同比增长推动，销售额连续11个月同比增长 超过17%。" 据半导体行业协会统计，3月份全球芯片市场三个月平均规模为559亿美元，环比增长1.8%，同比 增长18.8%。 尽管数据来源WSTS是按月追踪销售额，但SIA提供的月度数据是三个月的平均值。SIA和其他区 域性半导体行业机构选择使用平均数据，因为它可以平衡实际数据，因为实际数据通常在季度初出 现低谷，在季度末出现峰值。 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of "America First" is prompting the EU to enter an era of "strategic awakening," with the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the EU economy likely to manifest sooner than the positive effects of fiscal expansion, which may only begin to outweigh the negative impacts by Q4 of this year [1][4][13]. Group 1: Strategic Awakening in the EU - The unilateralism of the Trump administration is increasing anxiety among European nations, leading to a consensus on increasing defense spending within the EU [2][13]. - Germany's €1 trillion fiscal expansion plan has completed the legislative process and will be discussed after the new government is formed [2][13]. - The EU's €800 billion proposal for "rearming Europe" is actively progressing, with national exception clause applications approved in July [2][4]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs on the EU Economy - The static assessment indicates that U.S. tariffs will raise the effective tariff rate on imports from the EU by 9.6 percentage points, potentially reducing EU exports by approximately 1.9% and impacting EU GDP by about 0.5% [4][12]. - The pharmaceutical and organic chemical sectors are particularly vulnerable to these tariffs, with countries like Ireland, Finland, Italy, and Germany being sensitive to U.S. tariff policies [4][10]. Group 3: Fiscal Expansion and Economic Growth - Increased fiscal spending on defense and infrastructure is expected to effectively boost economic growth in Europe, with France and Germany likely to be the primary beneficiaries [4][18]. - The positive impact of fiscal expansion may take longer to materialize compared to the immediate negative effects of tariffs, with expectations that the latter will begin to diminish by Q4 of this year [4][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment is crucial for the EU economy to avoid recession, with many European companies focusing on equipment upgrades and product R&D rather than capacity expansion [18]. - Chinese companies are encouraged to leverage the EU's fiscal expansion to accelerate strategic transformations and seek potential opportunities in Europe, particularly in sectors like electrical and optical equipment [18].

Group 1 - The core principle in response to trade uncertainties is to focus on "trading facts rather than expectations," indicating that risk assets have returned to their original prices amid the tariff war [1] - A-shares are expected to continue showing characteristics of risk preference recovery and thematic rotation, with a focus on low institutional holdings and thematic trading opportunities [1] - Three major trends are emphasized: the unwavering trend of enhancing China's independent technological capabilities, the European Union's reconstruction of autonomous defense and energy infrastructure, and the necessity for China to accelerate the "dual circulation" strategy to stimulate domestic demand [1] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is evaluating the possibility of restarting trade negotiations with the U.S., indicating a softening stance compared to previous positions [2] - The offshore RMB exchange rate has appreciated to 7.21, the highest in over five months, driven by expectations of improved Sino-U.S. relations [2] - During the May Day holiday, domestic travel numbers reached new highs, with significant growth in inbound travel, county tourism, and long-distance travel [2] Group 3 - The analysis of tariff burden sharing reveals that industries with strong competitive advantages, such as textiles and telecommunications, are likely to bear less tariff burden, while weaker industries like pharmaceuticals may face higher burdens [3][4] - The U.S. has a high import dependency on certain Chinese products, which influences the tariff negotiation dynamics [4] Group 4 - The EU's economic recovery is complicated by U.S. tariff policies, with expectations that the negative impact of tariffs will manifest before the positive effects of fiscal expansion [5] - The global manufacturing PMI for April 2025 shows a slight decline, indicating pressures from tariffs and economic uncertainties [6] Group 5 - The banking sector experienced negative revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025, but there are expectations for gradual recovery in subsequent quarters due to adjustments in interest rates and market conditions [8] - The insurance sector reported better-than-expected Q1 results, indicating a potential for a slow bull market trajectory [17] Group 6 - The electronic industry showed normal growth despite seasonal demand fluctuations, with strong performance in sectors like computing power and automotive components [10] - Fund allocation in the electronic sector has increased, particularly in semiconductors, reflecting a positive outlook amid trade policy uncertainties [10][11] Group 7 - The tourism market during the May Day holiday showed robust demand, with significant increases in travel numbers and a positive outlook for the service sector [14] - The water price reform in Guangzhou is expected to alleviate cost pressures for water supply companies, potentially leading to improved industry returns [15]