Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on beans and oils dated October 22, 2025, covering the price trends and core logics of commodities in the agricultural futures sector [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean meal market is in a situation of loose supply and demand, with prices under pressure. Palm oil production is increasing while demand is weakening, and the substitution demand for palm oil by soybean oil is rising. Overall, the short - term trends of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil futures are all expected to be weakly volatile [5][7] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: weakly volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: weakly volatile [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The domestic soybean meal market has an ample supply of soybeans, high port inventories, and some oil mills face the risk of inventory overstocking. Downstream breeding losses have deteriorated, leading to cautious purchasing by feed enterprises and strong market wait - and - see sentiment. The short - term futures price is expected to be weakly volatile [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: weakly volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: weakly volatile [7][6] - **Core Logic**: Palm oil production has increased while demand has decreased. The substitution demand for palm oil by soybean oil has risen, and domestic palm oil inventories have increased. The market still depends on the biodiesel policy expectations and is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [7] Other Contracts - **Soybean Meal 2601**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile. Influencing factors include Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6] - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile. Influencing factors include Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6] - **Palm 2601**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile. Influencing factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic commodity futures market showed mixed performance in the night session on October 21, with various commodities experiencing different price movements [1] Group 1: Commodity Price Movements - Gold futures (沪金) decreased by 2.89% [1] - Silver futures (沪银) fell by 3.89% [1] - Iron ore (铁矿) increased by 0.46% [1] - Coking coal (焦煤) dropped by over 1% [1] - Crude oil (原油) rose by 1.19% [1] - Fuel oil (燃油) increased by 1.06% [1] - Rubber (橡胶) saw a rise of 0.8% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The overall view for the commodities in the agricultural futures sector, including soymeal, palm oil, and soy oil, is "oscillating weakly" in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soymeal (M) - **Price Trend**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic soymeal market has a loose supply - demand pattern, with prices under pressure. Oil mill operating rates are gradually recovering, increasing supply pressure. Downstream aquaculture losses have worsened, making feed enterprises cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak consumption. Spot basis is under pressure. The short - term fundamentals are lackluster, and the market is greatly affected by sentiment. With the changing prospects of Sino - US trade, soymeal futures prices are generally weak [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [7]. - **Core Logic**: India's palm oil imports in September decreased by 16.3% month - on - month, with demand shifting to soy oil, causing a recent slight correction in domestic palm oil futures and spot prices. Although Malaysia's palm oil export data in the first half of October is strong, factors such as inventory pressure, fluctuating trade relations between countries, and weak international oil prices are still dragging down palm oil futures prices. Before market sentiment recovers, palm oil futures prices will oscillate weakly [7]. - **Influencing Factors**: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soy Oil (2601) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating weakly, with a reference view of oscillating weakly [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soy oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

Report Summary 1. Sugar - **Industry Situation**: Brazilian sugar production in the second half of September 2025 increased by 10.76% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons, but the sugar production ratio dropped to 51.17%, easing some of the production increase pressure. In the domestic market, spot sugar prices continued to decline, with Guangxi sugar prices down 10 - 20 yuan/ton to 5,710 - 5,810 yuan/ton, and Yunnan down 10 yuan/ton to 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton. The import pressure remains, with the import volume in August reaching 825,000 tons, a record high for the same period. The new sugar - crushing season is delayed, and the de - stocking of old sugar is crucial. The market is awaiting import data and new - season production estimates [3]. - **Futures Prices**: On October 17, 2025, SR01 closed at 5,412 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 1.53%. Other contracts also showed different price changes [4]. - **Price Spreads and Basis**: The price spreads between different sugar futures contracts (e.g., SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09) and the basis between spot and futures prices (e.g., Nanning - SR01, Kunming - SR01) had various daily and weekly changes [4][12]. - **Import Prices and Profits**: The import prices of Brazilian and Thai sugar, both within and outside the quota, had daily and weekly changes. The profit margins for Brazilian sugar, both within and outside the quota, also showed seasonal patterns [15][16]. 2. Cotton - **Industry Situation**: Xinjiang's machine - picked cotton is gradually entering the centralized acquisition stage, with the acquisition price slightly rising recently, and the production increase expectation slightly revised. However, the downstream peak season is weakening, market confidence is insufficient, and the new cotton supply pressure will gradually emerge. Under the high - yield pattern, cotton prices face significant hedging pressure. The US will impose an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese goods exported to the US starting from November 1, 2025 [17]. - **Futures Prices**: On October 17, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 13,335 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.11%, and other contracts also had corresponding price changes [18]. - **Price Spreads and Basis**: The price spreads between different cotton futures contracts (e.g., cotton 01 - 05, cotton 05 - 09) and the basis between spot and futures prices (e.g., cotton basis) had different daily and weekly changes [19]. 3. Apples - **Industry Situation**: In the northwestern and Shandong apple - producing areas, late - maturing Fuji apples are generally in the coloring stage after bag - removal, and a small amount of red apples are on the market. Continuous rainy weather has slowed down the coloring in the western regions, and some bag - removal work in Shandong has been delayed. The supply of red apples is postponed compared to last year. There is a situation of high - quality apples at high prices and low - quality apples at low prices, but the risk of "bad money driving out good" should be guarded against [22]. - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 17, 2025, AP01 closed at 8,625 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.35% and a weekly decrease of 1.36%. Spot prices of different apple varieties in different regions also showed different changes [23]. - **Price Spreads and Basis**: The price spreads between different apple futures contracts (e.g., AP01 - 05, AP05 - 10) and the basis between spot and futures prices (e.g., apple main contract basis) had various daily and weekly changes [24]. 4. Red Dates - **Industry Situation**: The new - season red dates are about to be harvested. Some inland merchants have gone to the producing areas to order orchards, but the contract volume is still small. The current weather in the producing areas is good. With the high inventory of old dates, red dates may still face downward pressure [30]. - **Futures Price Spreads**: The price spreads between different red date futures contracts (e.g., red date futures 01 - 05, red date futures 05 - 09) showed different trends [31].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic commodity futures saw most main contracts rise, with coking coal and coke experiencing a significant late-session surge, indicating a mixed market sentiment influenced by supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close at 15:00, coking coal, polysilicon, and liquefied petroleum gas rose over 3%, while lithium carbonate, red dates, and coke increased over 2%. Gold, methanol, and glass saw gains exceeding 1%, and other commodities like caustic soda, styrene, and wire rod experienced slight increases [1] - On the downside, the shipping index (European line) and live pigs fell over 3%, with apples, peanuts, and eggs dropping over 1%. Minor declines were noted in corn starch, alumina, and soybean meal [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - According to Zijin Tianfeng Futures research, the overall supply and demand for coking coal is weaker compared to pre-holiday levels, but upstream inventory is low. The strength in thermal coal spot prices is boosting market sentiment, suggesting limited downside for coking coal prices. Future attention will be on potential policy changes and coal mine resumption [1] - Industrial Futures research indicates that the recent full-load trial of Mongolian coal imports may weaken expectations for supply limits under "industrial regulation," potentially creating price pressure. Additionally, increasing anti-dumping pressures from the EU on steel may weaken future demand for coal and coke, leading to a deterioration in short-term market sentiment. Overall, the short-term trend for coking coal and coke is expected to be weak and volatile [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 10 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空僵持，焦煤震荡运行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 利多驱动不足，焦炭震荡调整 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 126 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of various commodity futures, with the European shipping index rising by 5.13% and polysilicon increasing by 2.98% [1] - Shanghai crude oil futures experienced a decline of 1.97%, while low-sulfur fuel oil and glass also saw decreases of 1.93% and 1.91% respectively [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: Despite potential domestic sugar production cuts due to typhoon - affected cane in Guangdong and Guangxi, sugar prices are unlikely to improve under the backdrop of global supply surplus [3]. - **Cotton**: Xinjiang's machine - picked cotton is entering the concentrated acquisition phase with a slight recovery in acquisition prices and a minor repair of the production increase expectation. However, the downstream peak season is weakening, and new cotton supply pressure will emerge. With a bumper harvest, cotton prices face significant hedging pressure. Additionally, the US's new tariff policy adds policy uncertainties [18]. - **Apple**: Continuous rainy weather in apple - producing areas has delayed the large - scale supply of high - quality apples and reduced overall quality. Good - quality apple prices are rising, which will boost apple futures prices. Near - month contracts are stronger, and long - term prices are more volatile [22]. - **Jujube**: New - season jujubes are about to be harvested. Although some inland merchants have gone to the producing areas to contract orchards, the contract volume is small. With high inventories of old jujubes, jujube prices may still face downward pressure [30]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On October 13, 2025, SR01 closed at 5470 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.47% and a weekly decline of 0.15%. Different contract spreads also showed various changes, such as SR01 - 05 being 27 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 9 yuan/ton [4]. - **Base Difference**: On October 10, 2025, the base difference between Nanning and SR01 was 304 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 32 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 9 yuan/ton [13]. - **Import Price Changes**: On October 13, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4426 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 37 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 1 yuan/ton. The out - of - quota price was 5621 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 49 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 1 yuan/ton [16]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: On October 13, 2025, cotton 01 closed at 13300 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.19%. Cotton 05 closed at 13360 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 0.11%. Cotton 09 closed at 13530 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.15% [19]. - **Spreads**: The cotton base difference was 1450 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 18 yuan/ton. The spread between cotton 01 - 05 was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [20]. Apple - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 13, 2025, AP01 closed at 8638 yuan/ton, down 1.21% daily but up 2.82% weekly. The price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 3.8 yuan/jin, unchanged [23]. - **Spreads and Other Indicators**: The spread between AP01 - 05 was 69 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 42.98%. The main contract base difference was - 121 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 32.97% and a weekly decline of 156.28% [24]. Jujube - **Futures Spreads**: The report shows the historical trends of jujube futures spreads such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 from 2021 - 2025 [31][33]. - **Price Trends**: The report presents the price trends of Xinjiang's main jujube - producing areas (Aksu, Alar, Kashgar) and main sales areas (Hebei, Henan) from 2022 - 2025 [34].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market closed with more declines than increases, indicating a bearish trend overall [1] - Glass and LU fuel prices fell over 3%, while live pigs and NR dropped more than 2%, and coking coal and Shanghai nickel decreased over 1% [1] - On the other hand, Shanghai silver and methanol saw increases of over 2%, with peanuts and Shanghai gold rising more than 1%, and urea and soybean meal experiencing slight gains [1]

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年10月13日 | | | | 将诗语 | Z0017002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1230 | 1240 | -10 | -0.81% | | | 华东报价 | 1340 | 1340 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1220 | 1220 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 | 1310 | 1310 | 0 | 0.00% | TC/HP | | 玻璃2505 | 1334 | 1338 | -4 | -0.30% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1407 | 1407 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 05 # 7 | -104 | -d8 | -6 | -6.12% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品和 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | ...