Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with target prices of HKD 31.85 and RMB 32.97 [7][8] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q2 2025, with a revenue of RMB 222.40 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.74%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 25.57 billion, up 40.26% year-on-year and 41.26% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to effective cost control measures [1] - The company plans to distribute its first interim dividend of RMB 0.24 per share (tax included) [1] - The company is expected to benefit from increased infrastructure investment in the second half of 2025, alongside supply-side reforms such as staggered production and capacity management [1] Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 412.92 billion, down 9.38% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 43.68 billion, up 31.34% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit per ton of self-produced cement and clinker increased to RMB 70, an increase of RMB 18 year-on-year, primarily due to lower coal costs and proactive cost control [2] - The company’s trading volume of cement and clinker increased by 21.03% year-on-year, generating trading revenue of RMB 5.48 billion, up 16.33% year-on-year [2] Business Segments - The aggregate and concrete business showed mixed results, with aggregate revenue declining by 3.63% to RMB 21.11 billion, while concrete revenue increased by 28.86% to RMB 15.19 billion [3] - The company’s overseas business generated revenue of RMB 28.93 billion, up 14.95% year-on-year, with a notable increase in profitability from overseas operations [3] Financial Health - The company reported a net cash inflow from operating activities of RMB 82.87 billion in the first half of 2025, an increase of RMB 14.16 billion year-on-year [4] - The company’s interest-bearing debt decreased to RMB 280.03 billion, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 20.52%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous year [4] - The net debt ratio is estimated to be -17.7%, indicating a strong balance sheet [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are RMB 99.5 billion, RMB 110.5 billion, and RMB 121.3 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.88, RMB 2.08, and RMB 2.29 [5] - The target price corresponds to a P/B ratio of 0.9x for 2025, which is below the historical average, reflecting potential short-term pressures in the cement supply-demand balance [5]

Revenue Insights - In July 2025, the national general public budget revenue increased by 2.7% year-on-year, improving from a decline of -0.3% in June[1] - Tax revenue grew by 5.0% in July, significantly higher than the previous month's growth of 1.0%, while non-tax revenue fell by 12.9%[5] - The cumulative general public budget revenue from January to July showed a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a decline of -0.3% previously[7] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure in July rose by 3.0% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points from May[8] - Cumulative expenditure from January to July grew by 3.4%, slightly below the average progress of 54.4% over the past five years, completing 54.1% of the annual budget[9] Government Fund Performance - In July, government fund revenue increased by 8.9% year-on-year, although this was a decrease of 11.9 percentage points from the previous month[10] - Government fund expenditure in July surged by 42.4% year-on-year, despite a slowdown of 36.8 percentage points from the previous month[11] - From January to July, government fund expenditure grew by 31.7%, significantly outpacing the revenue growth due to accelerated issuance of local government special bonds, totaling 2.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year[11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and materials sectors [9] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate in the peak season, driven by government policies aimed at expanding effective investment and supporting major projects [12][14] - The special electronic fabric sector continues to experience high demand and profitability, with companies like Zhongcai Technology showing significant revenue growth [3][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with strong mid-year earnings growth and low valuations in the construction sector [12] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report notes that the national cement price increased by 0.7% week-on-week, with a shipment rate of 45.7% [2][24] - The average price of domestic float glass was 64 RMB/weight box, showing a decrease of 0.6% week-on-week [2][25] - The report indicates that the mainstream order prices for photovoltaic glass remained stable, with slight increases for 2.0mm products [2][20] Key Companies and Dynamics - Zhongcai Technology reported a revenue of 13.33 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.5%, with net profit growing by 114.9% [3] - The report recommends several companies, including Yaxiang Integration, China Metallurgical Group, and Zhongcai Technology, highlighting their potential for growth [9][33] Market Trends - The report discusses the ongoing demand for special electronic fabrics and the expected growth in the wind power and electronics sectors [13][22] - It also mentions the tightening supply in the photovoltaic glass market, which could lead to price increases if demand continues to rise [20][27] Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on companies with strong earnings growth and low price-to-book ratios, particularly in the construction sector [14][33] - Specific stock recommendations include Yaxiang Integration (buy), China Metallurgical Group (overweight), and Zhongcai Technology (buy) [9][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market-A" for the construction industry, indicating an expected return that exceeds the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance has issued guidelines to standardize the construction and operation of existing Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects, aiming to enhance project quality and efficiency. Key measures include prioritizing the completion of profitable projects, ensuring timely financing support from financial institutions, and increasing fiscal support for eligible projects [1][13]. - The report highlights that most central state-owned enterprises in the construction sector possess PPP projects, which are expected to accelerate the completion and revenue recognition of ongoing projects in the short term. In the long term, mandatory government payments will significantly improve accounts receivable quality and cash flow for enterprises [2][14]. - The State Council emphasizes the need to consolidate and expand the positive momentum of economic recovery, with a focus on increasing effective investment and promoting private investment. Several high-speed rail projects have been included in the national reserve construction plan, which are crucial for regional development [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The issuance of guidelines for PPP projects aims to ensure the smooth construction of ongoing projects and the stable operation of completed ones. Local governments are encouraged to integrate support for PPP projects into incremental policies [1][13][14]. Market Performance - The construction industry saw a weekly increase of 1.61%, with the landscaping engineering sector performing particularly well, rising by 4.82% [16][31]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests focusing on leading construction companies such as China Railway, China Communications Construction, and China State Construction, which are expected to benefit from improved operational metrics and valuation enhancement due to government support and market conditions [4][8][9][14]. Valuation Metrics - As of August 22, the construction and decoration industry had a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.58 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.85, indicating a slight increase from the previous week. The industry ranks 27th in P/E among all sectors, suggesting a relatively low valuation compared to others [21].

Economic Growth Observation - The economic growth in China is expected to slow down, with Morgan Stanley predicting a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 4.5% for the third quarter [2] - Export growth is anticipated to decline from 7.2% in July to 5%-6% in August due to high base effects and a pullback in pre-emptive demand [2] - Domestic consumption remains weak, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors, despite the central government allocating around 600 billion yuan in subsidies [4] - The real estate market's ongoing decline is contributing to a "negative wealth effect," further dampening consumer confidence [5] - Infrastructure investment has seen a slight rebound, but its sustainability is questioned due to a decrease in net financing from government bonds [6][7] Market Sentiment - Despite the economic slowdown, market sentiment in the A-share market remains resilient, supported by ample liquidity and proactive policy measures [11] - The financial environment is characterized by a shift towards capital markets, with significant inflows into offshore Chinese stocks, estimated at 15-17 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025 [13] - There is a notable shift in residents' asset allocation from savings to capital markets, as indicated by a decrease in household deposits and an increase in non-bank financial institution deposits [15] Policy Response - The Chinese government is addressing core challenges, termed the "3Ds" (de-leveraging, insufficient demand, structural transformation), with targeted policy measures [18] - Recent government meetings have emphasized the continuity of cyclical policies and the acceleration of consumer support measures to bolster domestic demand [18] Central Bank Stance - The central bank's recent monetary policy report indicates a focus on the quality of liquidity management rather than simply injecting liquidity into the market [19] - The central bank has reduced the scale of net liquidity injections since June, reflecting a recognition of the current level of liquidity [19] Leverage Levels - Current leverage levels in the market are deemed reasonable, with the margin trading balance exceeding 2 trillion yuan (approximately 290 billion USD) but remaining below historical peaks [22] - The proportion of margin trading balance to free float market value is about 4.8%, slightly below the 10-year average of 4.9% [22] - There is a low risk of immediate policy intervention regarding market leverage, although vigilance is advised if leverage indicators rise significantly [26]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget revenue was +0.1%, up from -0.3% in the previous period[1] - General public budget expenditure maintained a year-on-year growth rate of +3.4%, unchanged from the previous period[1] - Government fund budget revenue showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -0.7%, improving from -2.4% previously[1] - Government fund budget expenditure increased significantly by +31.7%, compared to +30.0% in the previous period[1] Tax Revenue Insights - In July, tax revenue increased by +5.0% year-on-year, marking an improvement for two consecutive months[3] - The four major tax categories showed varied performance, with domestic consumption tax growing by +5.38% and corporate income tax rising by +6.36%[4] - Personal income tax saw a notable increase of +13.92%, the highest among major tax categories, driven by low base effects and stock market gains[5] Government Fund Performance - Government fund budget revenue growth slowed to +8.9% in July, down from +20.8% the previous month, with land use rights revenue increasing by +7.2%[22] - Government fund budget expenditure growth also decreased to +42.4% from +79.2% in the previous month, with land-related expenditures declining by -4.1%[22] Infrastructure Investment and Economic Outlook - Infrastructure-related expenditure showed a recovery with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.81%, improving by 4.99 percentage points from the previous month[14] - The cumulative completion rate for general public budget revenue in the first seven months was 58.2%, lower than the average of the past five years[14] - The government is expected to have room for further fiscal policy adjustments to stabilize the domestic economy in the second half of the year[34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for the company [4]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated a strong growth trajectory in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase in revenue of 8.85% to 1.473 billion yuan and a significant rise in net profit of 70.98% to 172 million yuan [1][2]. - The business structure has been optimized, leading to improved profitability across its segments, particularly in high-margin products [2][9]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the pre-stressed steel materials and high-speed rail slab sectors, with a robust product matrix and a focus on high-value products [9]. Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the pre-stressed materials segment generated revenue of 1.158 billion yuan, accounting for 78.58% of total revenue, while the concrete products segment contributed 213 million yuan, representing 14.45% [2]. - The gross margin for the company improved to 24.26%, up 8.14 percentage points year-on-year, driven by enhanced margins in both pre-stressed materials and concrete products [3]. - The net profit margin for the pre-stressed materials segment was 11.23%, while the concrete products segment achieved a remarkable net profit margin of 20.19% [3]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The operating cash flow showed significant improvement in Q2 2025, with a net inflow of 106 million yuan, compared to a net outflow of 77.5 million yuan in Q2 2024 [8]. - As of H1 2025, accounts receivable amounted to 2.245 billion yuan, with over 80% being due within one year, indicating a healthy cash collection cycle [8]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.519 billion yuan, 4.022 billion yuan, and 4.545 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 14.3%, and 13.0% [11]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 357 million yuan, 472 million yuan, and 567 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 51.0%, 31.9%, and 20.3% [11]. - The report sets a 12-month target price of 12.14 yuan, based on a projected PE ratio of 22 times for 2026 [9].

前7个月全国一般公共预算收入同比增长0.1% 数据显示，1至7月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同比增长0.1%。其中，全国税收收入110933 亿元，同比下降0.3%；非税收入24906亿元，同比增长2%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入 58538亿元，同比下降2%；地方一般公共预算本级收入77301亿元，同比增长1.8%。 广发证券资深宏观分析师吴棋滢分析，从当月数据看，7月税收收入同比回升4个百分点，非税收入同比 连续三月下探，财政对非税收入的依赖度进一步减轻。1至7月一般公共预算收入累计同比增长0.1%， 已达到年初预算目标，收入进度也已超过去年同期水平，其中税收收入相较年度目标仍有上升空间。 数据还显示，1至7月，国内增值税同比增长3%；国内消费税同比增长2.1%；企业所得税同比下降 0.4%；个人所得税同比增长8.8%；房地产相关税收中，契税同比下降15%，房产税同比增长11.2%；城 镇土地使用税同比增长5.8%，土地增值税同比下降17.8%，耕地占用税同比增长3.1%。印花税同比增长 20.7%，其中证券交易印花税同比增长62.5%。 转自：北京日报客户端 新华财经北京8月20日 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京8月20日电（记者董道勇）财政部19日公布2025年1至7月财政收支情况。数据显示，1至7 月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同比增长0.1%；全国一般公共预算支出160737亿元，同比增 长3.4%。 业内分析表示，从今年前7个月财政收支数据看，总量和结构基本延续持续改善态势。从收入角度看， 今年前7个月全国一般公共预算收入增速年内首次转正，7月当月增速创年内新高。从支出角度看，前7 个月央地财政支出均较为积极，体现了财政加力扩大有效投资，适应需求变化更多投资于人、服务于民 生的政策取向。预计随着三、四季度中央政策工具资金拨付进度和新型政策性金融工具的落地速度加 快，会对建筑业实物工作量形成支撑。 前7个月全国一般公共预算收入同比增长0.1% 数据显示，1至7月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同比增长0.1%。其中，全国税收收入110933 亿元，同比下降0.3%；非税收入24906亿元，同比增长2%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入 58538亿元，同比下降2%；地方一般公共预算本级收入77301亿元，同比增长1.8%。 广发证券资深宏观分析师吴棋滢分析，从 ...

Group 1 - In July, national general public budget revenue showed a significant recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year [1] - For the first seven months, the total general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, indicating a positive turnaround compared to the previous period [1] - Tax revenue in July increased by 5%, the highest growth rate of the year, contributing to a significant narrowing of the revenue decline in the first seven months [2] Group 2 - The corporate income tax decreased by 0.4% in the first seven months, but the decline was significantly narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, which was a key factor in the growth of tax revenue in July [2] - The growth in tax revenue in July was supported by a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting the strong correlation between price factors and tax revenue [2] - The securities transaction stamp duty saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 62.5% in the first seven months, reflecting a recovery in market confidence [2] Group 3 - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries showed strong tax revenue performance, with specific sectors like railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace equipment seeing tax revenue growth of 33% [3] - General public budget expenditure for the first seven months reached 160,737 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, maintaining a focus on social welfare spending [3] - Expenditure in social security and employment grew by 9.8%, indicating a continued emphasis on improving public welfare [3] Group 4 - Local government special bonds and other financial instruments contributed to a government fund budget expenditure growth of 31.7% in the first seven months, amounting to 2.89 trillion yuan [4] - With the reduction of disruptions from extreme weather, infrastructure investment growth is expected to rebound in the second half of the year due to sufficient project and funding support [4]