Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Methanol: High imports are materializing, and inventory accumulation has begun. The market is undervalued, waiting for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. It's in a phase of negative factors materializing. Uncertainty exists in the unilateral direction due to macro instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US. Considering the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is favored [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. Import profits are around - 400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, while LD is weakening. In June, maintenance is decreasing, and domestic linear production is increasing. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new device commissioning in 2025 [7]. - PP (Polypropylene): Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is +100, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and imports have a profit of around - 500. Exports are performing well this year. PDH profit is around - 1000, and the propylene market is oscillating. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which could be alleviated by continuous export growth or more PDH device maintenance [7]. - PVC: The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150, and the factory - pickup basis is - 420. Downstream开工 is seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to new capacity commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, real - estate sales, terminal orders, and开工 in June [11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the动力煤 futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price increased from 2480 to 2765, and the South China spot price rose from 2450 to 2680. The daily change on June 19 showed an increase of 65 in Jiangsu and South China spot prices [2]. - **View**: High imports are realized, inventory is accumulating, and the market is in a phase of negative factors materializing. With low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the Northeast Asian ethylene price rose from 790 to 820. The North China LL price increased from 7210 to 7400, and the East China LL price went up from 7300 to 7500 [7]. - **View**: Overall inventory is neutral, import profits are stable, and attention should be paid to production conversion and new device commissioning [7]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the Shandong propylene price increased from 6410 to 6460. The East China PP price rose from 7090 to 7245 [7]. - **View**: Inventories are decreasing, and the market is under moderate to excessive pressure, which could be alleviated by certain factors [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From June 13 to June 19, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2350, and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 872 to 842 [10][11]. - **View**: The basis has strengthened, inventories are decreasing, and attention should be paid to multiple factors in June [11].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 镍 格暂时表现坚挺，国内镍铁成交价格有小幅反弹迹象，但大厂招标价格维持 940 元/镍 点。不锈钢方面来看，原料价格持稳，供应端国内及印尼方面均有减产，但全国主流市 场不锈钢 89 仓库口径社会总库存 114.55 万吨，周环比上升 2.07%，需求疲软压制，供 应调节供需平衡仍需时间。新能源方面，品种价格表现平稳，6 月需求排产难有大量新 增。一级镍方面，6 月供应环比延续下降，国内周度库存去化。综合来看，原料成本坚 挺为托底，一级镍去库，但向上受到下游需求制约，整体仍篇震荡运行，关注镍矿升水 和一级镍库存表现。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 有色商品日报 | 仓减仓 手；现货方面，SMM 氧化铝价格回落至 3259 元/吨。铝锭现货升 | | 721 至 10141 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 水扩至 元/吨，对无锡 200 | 90 | 元/吨。佛山 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has shown continuous operational improvement, leading to an upward revision of FY26/27 EPS forecasts by 9% to HKD 0.83 and HKD 0.91, respectively, with a target price increase of 31% to HKD 14.92, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - FY25 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue down 17.5% year-on-year and net profit attributable to shareholders down 9% to HKD 5.9 billion, primarily due to better-than-expected gross margin performance [2] - The company proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.32 per share, resulting in an annual payout ratio of 87.8%, maintaining a high dividend distribution [2] Group 2: Revenue and Store Management - Revenue decline of 17.5% in FY25 occurred despite a 40% increase in gold prices, with a better performance in the second half of the fiscal year, where the decline was 15% compared to 20% in the first half [3] - The company opened 5 new image stores in mainland China and Hong Kong while closing underperforming stores, resulting in a 12% reduction in store count to 6,501, with same-store sales in mainland China down 19% [3] - New product lines, such as the Chuanfu series and the Palace Museum series, generated over HKD 4 billion in retail sales, showcasing the company's strong product innovation capabilities [3] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Control - Gross margin improved by 5.6 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from rising gold prices and an increased proportion of high-margin fixed-price products, while operating profit margin rose by 4.1 percentage points [4] - The company managed to control selling and administrative expenses, with a slight increase of 1.6 percentage points in expense ratio despite declining revenue [4] Group 4: Inventory Management - Total inventory decreased by 14% year-on-year to HKD 55.4 billion, but inventory turnover days increased by 73 days due to weak sales of weighted gold products and gemstone jewelry [5] - Operating cash flow from activities fell by 25% year-on-year to HKD 10.3 billion [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - For FY26, the company expects revenue growth in the low single digits year-on-year, with a potential decline in gross margin by 0.8-1.2 percentage points due to reduced contributions from rising gold prices, while operating profit margin is anticipated to decrease by 0.6-1 percentage points [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Insights - For FY2025 (April 1, 2024 - March 31, 2025), Deckers achieved revenue of $4.99 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%, aligning with expectations [2][4] - Gross margin increased by 2.3 percentage points to 57.9%, primarily driven by a shift in product mix towards higher-margin products [2][4] - Q4 revenue was $1.02 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, with a gross margin increase of 0.5 percentage points to 56.7% [2][4] Revenue Breakdown - Annual performance was strong, but Q4 growth showed a significant slowdown [5] - By brand, UGG, HOKA, and other brands had annual revenues increasing by 13.1%, 23.6%, and 8.6% respectively, reaching $2.53 billion, $2.23 billion, and $220 million [5] - HOKA's revenue growth was robust across channels and regions, with DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) and wholesale channels growing by 23% and 24% respectively [5] - UGG's wholesale channel grew by 15% due to enhanced brand exposure through influential retailers, while DTC grew by 11% driven by global customer acquisition [5] Channel and Regional Performance - For the year, DTC and wholesale revenues were $2.13 billion and $2.86 billion, reflecting growth rates of 14.8% and 17.4% respectively [5] - Revenue from the U.S. and other regions was $3.19 billion and $1.80 billion, with growth rates of 11.3% and 26.3% respectively [5] - In Q4, HOKA and UGG revenues grew by 10% and 4% year-on-year, with HOKA facing challenges from weak market demand and UGG impacted by insufficient inventory of key styles [5] Inventory and Cost Implications - At the end of FY2025, the company's inventory increased by 4.4% to $500 million, indicating a relatively healthy inventory level [5] - Tariff uncertainties are expected to increase sales costs by up to $150 million in FY2026, with strategies in place to mitigate some of the impacts [5] Performance Guidance - The company expects Q1 FY2026 revenue to be between $890 million and $910 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.8% to 10.3%, with HOKA anticipated to grow at least in the double digits and UGG in the mid-single digits [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales for Q1 fiscal 2025 were $1,350 million, down 0.9% year-over-year, resulting in a negative 3.7% comparable sales (comp) [13][26] - Operating income was $69.3 million, with diluted EPS at $0.68 and adjusted EPS at $0.76 [30] - Gross margin improved to 34%, a 60 basis point increase from the previous year, driven by merchandise margin expansion and favorable shrink [28][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Footwear and apparel were the strongest categories, remaining roughly flat year-over-year, while sports and recreation also showed improvement [14][26] - Athletic footwear posted a positive 4.5% comp, led by brands like Nike and Brooks, while the Jordan brand exceeded internal expectations [27][19] - Outdoor category faced challenges, particularly in ammunition sales, but fishing and firearms showed solid increases [14][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company observed increased foot traffic from customers with household incomes over $100,000, indicating a shift towards value-seeking behavior among higher-income consumers [12][37] - E-commerce sales increased by 10% for the quarter, with penetration growing to over 10% [17][26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on new store expansion, planning to open 20 to 25 new stores in fiscal 2025, with five locations opened in Q1 [15][16] - E-commerce growth is a key pillar, with efforts to enhance the online shopping experience and expand product offerings [17][18] - The company is leveraging technology, including RFID and handheld devices, to improve inventory accuracy and customer experience [21][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism about navigating tariff impacts and consumer behavior, emphasizing the importance of value in a challenging economic environment [7][25] - The company is adjusting its guidance to account for various tariff scenarios, with sales expectations ranging from $5.97 billion to $6.26 billion [35][36] - Management noted the fragility of the U.S. consumer environment but remains confident in long-term growth strategies [24][25] Other Important Information - The company returned over $100 million of free cash flow to investors in Q1, including share repurchases and dividends [34] - Strategic actions taken to mitigate tariff impacts included pulling forward $85 million in domestic inventory receipts at pre-tariff prices [31][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Retention of higher-income consumers - Management noted that retention among higher-income consumers has been strong, with these customers shopping more frequently across various product categories [41][42] Question: Performance in May and impact of Jordan brand - Management indicated that while May showed a slight decline, the Jordan brand continues to perform well, and they remain optimistic about Q2 due to upcoming shopping events [45][46] Question: Health of the consumer and impact of weather - Management attributed softness in certain categories to weather conditions and noted that consumer behavior is cautious, with a focus on value [52][53] Question: Tariff outlook for fiscal 2026 - Management emphasized the importance of diversifying sourcing to mitigate future tariff impacts, but refrained from speculating on specific outcomes [80][81] Question: Gross margin guidance - Management explained that gross margin guidance remains unchanged due to effective inventory management and partnerships with suppliers to mitigate cost increases [56][63]

金十数据6月9日讯，乘联分会文章指出，由于5月厂商生产态势较好，5月厂商批发高于生产4万辆，而 厂商月度国内批发低于零售7万辆，5月乘用车厂商加渠道总体库存下降11万辆（去年同期下降9万 辆）。今年1-5月行业总体库存较去年同期持平（去年1-5月下降49万辆，2023年下降21万、2022年增长 3万、2021年下降82万、2020年下降55万），今年改变了过去2年1-5月持续降库存的特征，也带来厂商 销量的较好增长。 乘联分会：5月乘用车厂商加渠道总体库存下降11万辆 ...

6 月 5 日山东德州报价 2.7 元/斤，较上日稳定；北京报价 3.02 元/斤，较上 日稳定。短期端午节后需求转弱，叠加梅雨季来临，鸡蛋容易发生质量问 题，渠道及下游采购心态偏弱，蛋价支撑有限，不过近期淘汰有所加速，一 定程度缓解供应压力，各环节库存有所消化，关注蛋价跌至低位后冷库入库 积极性。中期来看，25 年 3-4 月补栏量依旧较高，对应 25 年 7-8 月新开 产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前期利润积累，抗风险能力增强，产能出清或需 要时间，整体高补苗量下，远期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。长 期来看，经过上半年养殖利润不佳传导，养殖端补苗积极性有所下滑，四季 度新开产或环比减少，关注三季度淘汰及鸡病情况。短期节后需求转弱，蛋 价支撑不足，三季度供需双增，蛋价反弹承压，四季度供应压力或有所缓 解，关注近端淘汰及鸡病情况。策略建议：07 进入 6 月后限仓，观望为 主，关注 3020-3060 压力表现；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待，养殖企业等待反 弹逢高套保，08 关注 3750-3800 压力，关注饲料端及淘汰扰动；10 关注 逢低多机会。关注淘鸡、鸡病、天气等因素（数据来源：蛋 e 网、同花顺 ...

Core Insights - The Latin American smartphone market experienced a 4% year-on-year decline in Q1 2025, ending six consecutive quarters of growth, with total shipments reaching 33.7 million units [1][3][5] Group 1: Market Performance - Samsung maintained its leading position with 11.9 million units shipped, a 7% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand for entry-level models A06 and A16 [1][5] - Xiaomi ranked second with 5.9 million units shipped, a 10% increase, supported by the continued popularity of the Redmi 14C4G and Note14 series [1][5] - Motorola fell to third place with 5.2 million units shipped, a 13% decline, due to its reliance on low-end products like G15 and G05 [1][5] - Honor rose to fourth place with 2.6 million units shipped, a 2% increase, thanks to strong performance from the X series [1][5] - Transsion ranked fifth with 2.1 million units shipped, experiencing a significant 38% decline, marking its first drop in the region [1][5] Group 2: Market Trends and Challenges - Economic uncertainty, particularly concerns over tariff increases, has severely impacted the smartphone market in Latin America, leading manufacturers to tighten aggressive sales strategies and retailers to reduce inventory [3][7] - The market showed a clear polarization, with growth concentrated in entry-level and high-end segments, while the mid-range market, which accounts for 78% of total shipments, remains a key battleground [3][7] - Brazil was the only major market in the region to see a year-on-year increase in shipments, growing by 3% to 9.5 million units, driven by increased investment from Chinese brands like Honor and Xiaomi [5][7] - Mexico, the second-largest market, saw an 18% decline in shipments, attributed to intense local competition and increased inventory levels [5][7] - Central America experienced its first decline in seven quarters, down 7%, due to inventory buildup and slowing market demand [5][7] Group 3: Future Outlook - Canalys predicts a slight decline of 1% in the Latin American smartphone market for 2025, influenced by global economic uncertainties and potential inflation [7][8] - Manufacturers are expected to focus on maintaining lean and flexible inventory management, optimizing product portfolios, and enhancing consumer experience to remain competitive in a redefined growth environment [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Latin American smartphone market experienced a 4% year-on-year decline in Q1 2025, ending six consecutive quarters of growth, with total shipments reaching 33.7 million units [1][8]. Market Performance - Samsung led the market with 11.9 million units shipped, a 7% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand for entry-level models A06 and A16 [1][8]. - Xiaomi ranked second with 5.9 million units, a 10% increase, supported by the popularity of the Redmi 14C 4G and Note 14 series [1][8]. - Motorola fell to third place with 5.2 million units, a 13% decline, due to its reliance on low-end products like G15 and G05 [1][8]. - Honor's strong performance with the X series led to a 2% increase in shipments to 2.6 million units, securing the fourth position [1][8]. - Transsion ranked fifth with 2.1 million units, experiencing a significant 38% decline, marking its first drop in the region [1][8]. Market Trends - The smartphone market in Latin America showed a clear polarization, with growth concentrated in entry-level and high-end segments, while the mid-range market, which accounts for 78% of total shipments, remains the primary battleground [2][7]. - Economic uncertainty, particularly concerns over tariff increases, has severely impacted the market, leading manufacturers to tighten aggressive sales strategies and retailers to reduce inventory [2][7]. - The Brazilian market was the only one among the top five to see growth, with a 3% increase in shipments to 9.5 million units, driven by increased investments from Chinese brands like Honor, Xiaomi, and realme [4][5]. Future Outlook - Canalys predicts a slight decline of 1% in the Latin American smartphone market for 2025, influenced by global economic uncertainties and potential inflation [7]. - Manufacturers are expected to focus on maintaining lean and flexible inventory management, optimizing product portfolios, and enhancing consumer experience to remain competitive in a redefined growth environment [7].

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs hosted the Alternative Revenue Forum, highlighting Target's strategic positioning and performance in the current retail environment, focusing on diversified revenue channels and inventory management for sustainable growth [1] Group 1: Revenue Diversification - Target's Roundel business has become a significant revenue contributor, accounting for 10% of total revenue with expectations for continued growth due to expansion in the retail network and synergy with Target Plus [1] - Target Plus achieved a gross merchandise volume (GMV) of $1 billion last year, with plans to increase GMV to $5 billion over the next five years through a differentiated market strategy [2] Group 2: Customer Engagement and Digital Growth - Target Circle 360, a loyalty program, offers same-day delivery for orders over $35, with plans to enhance customer benefits by eliminating price markups on Shipt market items [3] - The digital business is profitable and shows strong growth potential, with various fulfillment options and an efficient order processing system leveraging store resources [3] Group 3: Inventory Management and Financial Performance - Target is carefully managing inventory to avoid over-purchasing, with plans to shift more home and hardline products to the marketplace to free up warehouse space [4] - Financially, Target's market capitalization is $42.3 billion, with fluctuating revenues projected to grow from $106.57 billion in Q1 2025 to $112.19 billion in Q1 2026 [5]