追踪24个新兴市场国家大中盘股表现的MSCI新兴市场指数今年迄今已上涨8.55%。相比之下，同期美 国基准标普500指数仅上涨了1%。 这一差距在4月2日后变得尤为显著。当时特朗普政府宣布对盟国和竞争对手实施"对等"关税。 虽然大多数基准指数在4月2日后的几天内全面下跌，但随后一周新兴市场股市和美国股市走势出现分 化。4月9日至21日期间，标普500指数下跌超过5%，而MSCI新兴市场指数却上涨7%。 尽管美股和美债此后略有反弹，但最近穆迪的降级再次引发了交易员的担忧。周一，美国30年期国债收 益率短暂突破5%，达到2023年11月以来的最高水平，而美股在周二也结束了六连涨。 资金轮动新周期开启? 随着穆迪下调美国信用评级，"卖出美国"论调再度升温，新兴市场股票重新成为全球投资者关注的焦 点。 美国银行最新发表的研报将新兴市场誉为"下一轮牛市"的主战场。 以投资策略师Michael Hartnett为首的美国银行团队在一份报告中表示："美元走弱、美债收益率见顶、 中国经济复苏……当前没有比新兴市场股票更具吸引力的选择。" 无独有偶，摩根大通周一将新兴市场股票评级从"中性"上调至"增持"，理由是中美贸易紧张局势 ...

美国银行知名策略师哈内特最近将新兴市场称为全球市场中的"下一个牛市"。 全球市场向来牵一发而动全身。此前，穆迪调降美国信用评级仅导致美国"股债汇三杀"一日游，不少华尔街大机构高管开始警示美元资产投资者过于自满的 风险，并认为全球金融系统正在发生一些"更深层次"的事情。 话音刚落，被视为传统避险资产的日债、美债拍售相继遇冷，后者导致美国周三再度遭遇"股债汇三杀"。同时，黄金、比特币价格却升至历史新高。此外， 随着更多投资者选择"卖出美国"交易，分析师认为新兴市场有望开启一轮牛市。 美债、日债吸引力下降的逻辑 周三，美国再度遭遇股债汇三杀：美股三大股指遭遇四月以来最严重抛售、长期美债收益率出现两位数基点单日涨幅、美元指数再现将近50点的大跌单日， 失手关键点位100。其中，美债再度成为大跌的"风暴眼"。当日拍售的20年期美债的最高中标利率达到5.047%，史上第二次超过5%，并录得近6个月来最大 尾部利差，投标倍数也从近六个月平均水平2.57降至2.46。如此惨淡的拍售数据发生在穆迪调降美国信用评级后的首场长债拍售中。本应是避险资产的长期 美债需求遇冷，再度引发了投资者恐慌情绪，带动美股美元同步大跌。 对美国高债 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of global asset allocation, particularly highlighting the potential of emerging markets as a counterbalance to the high valuations and risks associated with major tech stocks in developed markets [1][3]. - Morgan Stanley has upgraded its rating on emerging market stocks to "overweight," indicating a bullish stance and suggesting that these markets could provide significant investment opportunities, especially as they have underperformed developed markets by 40% over the past four years [1][2]. - Emerging market stocks have shown a notable recovery this year, with Indonesia's index rising by 10% and India's SENSEX30 increasing by 7%, outperforming the A500 index [1][2]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the forward P/E ratio for emerging market stocks is 12.4 times, significantly lower than the 19.1 times for developed markets, suggesting a potential for capital inflow as global investors currently have low exposure to these markets [1][2]. - The article points out that trade volumes within emerging markets have reached historical highs, with China exporting more to Southeast Asia than to the U.S., indicating a shift in trade dynamics [5]. - Specific opportunities are identified in markets like India, which has a large untapped mobile data user base, and Indonesia, where the digital economy is poised for significant growth due to its geographical characteristics [5].

今年前4个月 江苏省对共建"一带一路"国家进出口9033.7亿元，同比增长9.6% 浙江省对东盟、拉美、中东等新兴市场分别出口1802.8亿元、1450.6亿元和1230.1亿元，分别同比增长 9.2%、21.5%和10.4% 太仓港集装箱码头 上海出口6290亿元，同比增长约13.7% 安徽省对欧盟进出口383.9亿元，同比增长17.4%；对东盟进出口379.2亿元，同比增长31.3% 江苏省对共建"一带一路"国家进出口9033.7亿元，同比增长9.6% 浙江省对东盟、拉美、中东等新兴市场分别出口1802.8亿元、1450.6亿元和1230.1亿元，分别同比增长 9.2%、21.5%和10.4% 上海出口6290亿元，同比增长约13.7% 安徽省对欧盟进出口383.9亿元，同比增长17.4%；对东盟进出口379.2亿元，同比增长31.3% ◎记者 操子怡 今年1月至4月，浙江省外贸进出口1.75万亿元，同比增长6.6%。浙江积极开拓新兴市场，前4月，全省 对欧盟、东盟、拉美等主要市场分别进出口2627.8亿元、2594.8亿元和1814.7亿元，分别同比增长 10.3%、10.9%和4.8%。 上海证券报记 ...

Group 1 - Donghai County is the largest handmade nail production base in China, with sales reaching approximately 5 billion yuan from January to April, representing a 91% year-on-year growth, with 40% of sales coming from exports [1] - The company Jiangsu Jingyi Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. has over 100 live streamers, particularly in demand for small language streamers such as Spanish and Portuguese, indicating a shift towards emerging markets [1] - The company has initiated live streaming in the Japanese market, achieving over 6,000 USD in sales in the first month, which is 2 to 3 times higher than the average performance of new streamers in the US market [1] Group 2 - Donghai sells approximately 80 million pairs of nails annually to 35 countries and regions, supported by local policies aimed at talent development and industry growth [2] - The region has conducted over 100 training sessions, producing more than 6,000 talents for the industry, and is set to hold e-commerce live streaming training to enhance skills [2] - The company emphasizes the importance of product differentiation, with themed nails selling for up to 50 USD and custom designs exceeding 1,000 USD, which helps mitigate the impact of previous tariff wars [2]

会议以圆桌讨论形式展开，蒙古央行副行长恩赫泰万·冈包勒德（Enkhtaivan Ganbold），泰国央行金融 稳定部部长梁荣（Rungporn Roengpitya），中央财经大学国际金融研究中心主任张礼卿，新开发银行环 境社会治理局负责人罗曼·诺沃日洛夫（Roman Novozhilov）四位嘉宾针对议题展开热烈讨论。清华大学 五道口金融学院讲席教授陆毅主持本场论坛。 恩赫泰万・冈包勒德 蒙古央行副行长 2025年5月17日-18日，"共享未来——构建开放包容的经济与金融体系"2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在 深圳市成功召开。17日下午，主题论坛六以"新兴市场债务危机与金融治理"为主题，围绕新兴市场出现 的债务危机，阐述了不同国家的治理方式及相关政策。 图为圆桌讨论现场 梁荣 梁荣在发言伊始指出，对于许多国家而言，债务水平实际上在疫情之前便已持续攀升，而2020年 的新冠疫情以及2022年通胀的急剧上升进一步加剧了这一趋势，二者导致家庭和企业收入受到冲 击、成本不断上升，最终促使部分群体积累了更多债务。同时，各国政府为缓解这些冲击而推出 的刺激政策也推高了公共债务水平。债务的积累广泛存在于企业、家庭和政府 ...

Group 1 - UBS emphasizes the profound impact of the recent US tariff measures on the global economy, predicting a reduction in US real GDP growth to 1.6% by 2025 and an increase in inflation by 2 basis points [1] - The global economic growth forecast has been downgraded, with 2025 growth expectations lowered by 40 basis points to 2.6% and 2026 expectations down by 20 basis points to 2.5% [1] - UBS maintains a cautious stance on long-term US Treasuries, suggesting a long position in 30-year US Treasuries relative to swap rates, while also positioning in US 10-year breakeven inflation rates and 5-year euro inflation swaps [1] Group 2 - In the foreign exchange market, UBS suggests buying during periods of declining volatility rather than directly shorting the US dollar, based on the belief that the dollar index is undervalued [2] - For emerging market currencies, UBS recommends selective exposure to commodity currencies like the Brazilian real and Mexican peso, reflecting confidence in regional economic resilience [2] - UBS sets a year-end target for the S&P 500 index at 5300 points, indicating a potential upside of 7%, while cautioning that the market is entering a high valuation zone [2] Group 3 - UBS advises reallocating funds to local currency debt in Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, India, and Singapore instead of directly investing in stocks, due to the current interest rate environment [3] - UBS's growth forecast for Asian emerging markets is 0.3 percentage points higher than the IMF's prediction, influencing its asset allocation strategy [3] - UBS constructs a multi-layered defense system for risk hedging, recommending maintaining gold positions with a target price of $3500 per ounce, reflecting a focus on geopolitical risk premiums [3] Group 4 - UBS's strategy report reflects a risk management-oriented allocation approach, focusing on duration management, volatility trading, and regional selection amid global economic uncertainty [4] - The effectiveness of UBS's allocation framework will depend on the intensity of geopolitical tensions, central bank policy paths, and the actual resilience of the global economy [4]

Group 1 - Poland's main stock index WIG has risen by 28.6% this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 1% increase, making it one of the strongest markets globally [1] - The strong performance of the Polish stock market is attributed to its relative independence from global trade wars and expectations of benefiting from Germany's substantial fiscal stimulus plan [3][5] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of Polish stocks is 15% lower than that of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index [4] Group 2 - Poland's economy showed strong resilience, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% in Q1 2025, making it the second-fastest growing country in the EU, behind Ireland [6] - Analysts expect an average earnings growth of about 10% for companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in 2025, with financial services companies increasing dividends after record profits [6] - The release of previously frozen EU funds for infrastructure and energy transition projects is providing additional momentum for the Polish market [7] Group 3 - Investors are closely watching the presidential election on June 1, where the outcome could significantly impact investor confidence in Polish assets [8][9] - The potential victory of the pro-EU candidate Donald Tusk could enhance investor confidence, while a loss may raise concerns about Poland's reform trajectory [9] - Emerging markets, including Poland, are becoming a focal point for global investors, driven by expectations of a weaker dollar and a potential peak in U.S. bond yields [9]

Core Viewpoint - Wells Fargo suggests that investors should reduce their holdings in emerging market stocks and instead purchase U.S. stocks, citing that while emerging market equities have outperformed the S&P 500 this year, this performance is typically linked to a weaker dollar, which is expected to strengthen [1] Group 1 - Emerging market stocks have shown superior performance compared to the S&P 500 index this year [1] - The strong performance of emerging markets is often associated with a weak dollar [1] - A prediction of a strengthening dollar is made, influencing the recommendation to shift investments [1]

Core Viewpoint - Major investment firms are shifting their focus towards emerging market stocks, anticipating a favorable turn in market conditions for these assets [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Firms' Perspectives - Morgan Stanley, AQR Capital Management, Bank of America, and Franklin Templeton are betting on emerging markets as the next investment opportunity [1]. - Bank of America's Michael Hartnett describes emerging markets as the "next bull market" [3]. - AQR predicts that emerging market stocks will yield an annual return of nearly 6% in local currency over the next 5 to 10 years, surpassing the 4% expected return from U.S. stocks [3]. Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - The S&P 500 index has remained flat year-to-date, while emerging market indices have risen by 10%, suggesting a potential end to a 15-year period of underperformance for these markets [3]. - Over the past 15 years, U.S. stocks have surged over 400%, while emerging market stocks have only increased by 7% [3]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Investment Shifts - Factors such as trade wars, the dollar's challenges, S&P volatility, and doubts about U.S. Treasury bonds' safe-haven status are prompting investors to look beyond the U.S. [3]. - Moody's recently downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to concerns over rising debt and deficits, adding pressure to U.S. equities [3]. - Franklin Templeton's Christy Tan warns of dollar depreciation risks and suggests that the "American exceptionalism" narrative may be temporarily over, viewing emerging market bonds as alternatives to U.S. Treasuries [3]. Group 4: Investment Focus Areas - Morgan Stanley's Jitania Kandhari is focusing on stocks in banking, electrification, healthcare, and defense sectors within emerging markets [4]. - AQR's Chris Doheny is targeting smaller market capitalization companies in emerging markets that are expected to perform well in the medium to long term [4]. Group 5: Capital Flows and Economic Conditions - As of the week ending May 9, inflows into U.S.-listed emerging market and specific country ETFs reached $1.84 billion, more than double the previous week [4]. - Despite the positive outlook, inherent characteristics of emerging markets, such as political instability and local crises, may hinder this year's growth [4]. - Franklin Templeton's Tan highlights that major emerging markets have strong fundamentals, low external debt, and favorable debt-to-GDP ratios, making them attractive [4].