中信证券策略聚焦专题会：两个关键时点 20250323 摘要 Q&A 当前 A 股和港股市场的整体情况如何？ 目前 A 股和港股都处于较为尴尬的位置。A 股一直呈现震荡态势，而港股虽然 满足了牛市的三个特征——资金持续流入、仓位配置以及资产独占性，但由于 外资对估值敏感度较高，且美股核心公司的估值下修，使得港股显得相对不具 吸引力。此外，机构资金流动削弱了港股作为估值洼地的地位。印度、日本等 市场在下跌后也可能出现阶段性高切低过程，这进一步制约了港股的逻辑。 • 港股估值优势不再，与美股互联网公司估值趋同，且机构资金流向受日本、 印度等市场影响，削弱了其作为估值洼地的吸引力。需关注日本和印度市 场调整后的资金再配置需求。 • 2025 年需关注两大决策时点：一是科技板块在宏观叙事未变下的切入时机， 关注风险点和催化因素；二是主流机构和外资战略性配置核心资产的时机， 等待中美周期同步及政策加码。 • 四月海外风险主要为美国贸易政策，可能引发关税扰动。若外需恶化，国 内或刺激内需，科技板块虽易受宏观环境影响调整，但其独立产业趋势使 其仍具交易价值。 • 端侧 AI 是重要催化因素，年内产品发布、重点公司财报和国内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The annual report of Shanghai Urban Development (00563.HK) highlights its operational resilience and focus on core assets amidst a challenging real estate market, indicating potential investment opportunities despite short-term profit pressures [1][2][17]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 12.44 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.4% [3]. - Property sales, the main revenue driver, reached HKD 11.35 billion in 2024, up 65.2% year-on-year, accounting for over 90% of total revenue [4][5]. - Hotel operations saw a slight decline, with revenue at HKD 281.99 million, while property management revenue grew by 28.6% to HKD 13.21 million [8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company’s revenue growth is closely linked to project deliveries in key cities like Shanghai and Xi'an, reflecting a recovery trend in the real estate market [7]. - The company holds 27 projects with a total saleable area of 3.32 million square meters in major cities, ensuring a robust pipeline for the next 3 to 5 years [12]. - The company benefits from a state-owned background, providing financial advantages and a competitive edge in land acquisition [13][14]. Asset Management and Growth Potential - The company employs a dual strategy of rental and sales, enhancing its revenue stability and overall profitability [15]. - Investment properties cover approximately 125.5 thousand square meters, with rental income increasing by 2.7% to HKD 79.4 million, indicating effective management in this sector [15][16]. - The company’s projects in urban renewal and community management are expected to contribute to sustained revenue growth and brand enhancement [19]. Future Outlook - The company’s market valuation reflects pessimistic expectations, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.11, significantly below the industry average, suggesting potential for recovery as market conditions improve [18]. - Government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are anticipated to benefit the company, particularly in high-capacity markets like Shanghai [18]. - The company’s experience in urban renewal projects positions it well to capitalize on ongoing city redevelopment initiatives [19].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of three-year holding period funds has significantly decreased, with only 14 products established in 2023 and 2024, contrasting sharply with previous years when many high-value funds were launched [1][3]. Group 1: Fund Issuance Trends - The number of three-year holding period funds has sharply declined, with only 11 products established in 2023 and 3 in 2024, indicating a cautious approach from public funds due to market volatility [2][3]. - In the years 2020 to 2022, the issuance of three-year funds peaked, with 21, 38, and 17 products launched respectively, including several large-scale funds exceeding 10 billion [3]. Group 2: Performance of Newly Established Funds - Most of the newly established three-year funds have achieved positive returns, with notable performances such as Dachen Zhi Xin's nearly 30% increase and Yinhua's over 23% rise since inception [4]. - The funds that were launched during market lows have benefited from better timing, contrasting with the poor performance of funds issued at market highs [4][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Market Conditions - Fund managers emphasize the importance of timing in investment, suggesting that funds should be launched during market lows to capitalize on valuation advantages [4][6]. - Despite the overall positive performance of newly established funds, many have missed out on trending sectors like artificial intelligence, focusing instead on stable, long-term investments [5][6].

Core Views - The A-share market is experiencing a significant expansion driven by policy, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3400-point level, indicating a potential for continued market recovery and optimism regarding foreign capital inflow [1][2] - In March, the market's risk appetite is expected to rise, supported by positive signals from the National People's Congress and the expectation of a recovery in the real economy, although potential disturbances may arise in April due to factors like earnings disclosures [2][3] - There is a shift in market pricing power towards allocation-type funds, with an increased effectiveness of fundamental factors, suggesting a focus on core assets in sectors like midstream manufacturing, consumer goods, and real estate chains [3][4] Market Dynamics - The market is witnessing a transition from a broad technology focus to core asset appreciation, with short-term strategies favoring low-positioned sectors showing signs of improvement, particularly in midstream manufacturing and consumer goods [5][6] - The relative valuation of the CSI 300 versus the CSI 2000 has fallen to its lowest level since 2017, indicating potential for small-cap growth stocks to catch up [4][5] - Allocation-type foreign capital is likely to seek out low-positioned fundamental opportunities, with recent data indicating a shift towards sectors benefiting from economic recovery [4][5] Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include engineering machinery, batteries, and consumer goods, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery and demand for core assets [5][6] - The report highlights that the basic improvement signals are concentrated in manufacturing sectors such as engineering machinery, batteries, and photovoltaic industries, as well as consumer goods benefiting from price increases [4][5] - The report suggests that mid-term strategies should continue to focus on the broader technology sector while monitoring key events like Tencent's earnings and the GTC conference for further insights [5][6]

摘要 中信证券策略聚焦专题会：高切低后的市场演 20250316 Q&A 当前市场高低切换现象背后的主要驱动因素是什么？ 高低切换现象本质上反映了市场投资者心态的变化。原先驱动市场上涨的一些 板块，其上涨驱动力已逐渐减弱，投资者开始寻找新的风格和行业方向。过去 三到四年，以题材股为主要驱动的市场环境，使得投资者对稳定核心大票的估 值不再敏感，对这些公司的基本面好转也不敏感。当纯主题题材被炒作至高位 后，投资者发现许多过去几年被忽视的板块估值较低，并且在政策提振消费或 交易性需求推动下，这些板块容易表现出弹性。类似情形在 2016 年和 2017 年 • 市场风格转变：投资者对稳定核心资产的估值不再敏感，转而关注低估值 且具政策提振弹性的板块，类似 2016-2017 年情形，信心恢复后将重估具 备长久竞争力的公司。 • 核心资产机会：经历题材股主导后，稳定大票估值较低且基本面改善未充 分反映。外部因素或致年中调整，中美经济和政策周期同步共振有望推动 美股、A 股、港股共振上行，利好核心资产。 • 资金流动影响：仅靠宏观叙事和资金流无法持续推动行情，港股估值洼地 逻辑已不成立。内资配置新经济方向优秀公司仍有巨大 ...

人民财讯3月16日电，中信证券指出，在近期市场演绎完高切低后，预计后续内外资回流港股的趋势会 放缓，港股明显跑赢A股的状况会告一段落；年报季市场回归业绩驱动，A股核心资产蓄力上涨；特朗 普的理想"政策三部曲"进度在加快，美国在年中发生衰退的概率在明显提升；美国衰退预期交易不会影 响中国资产，但真实的衰退如果发生仍然会产生负面影响；预计春季躁动的中后段纯资金驱动的主题会 降温，建议聚焦A股和港股核心资产。 ...

中信证券 2025 年春季策略：核心资产的春天 摘要 Q&A 您对中国核心资产的看法是什么？为什么认为它们具有投资价值？ 我们非常看好中国的新核心资产接力。前一段时间市场经历了极致高波动的板 块行情，但我们认为最近的市场高切低模式与过去一两年有根本性不同。投资 者开始抛弃杠铃结构，转向持续进攻和持有，体现出更积极的心态。信心修复 目前局限于科技领域，但未来会扩散到经济领域，这是时间问题。我们对两会 在供给侧和促消费方面保持期待。 从风格上看，核心资产是关注重心。A 股市 场若要走出类似港股市场的指数化行情，需要龙头核心资产走出盈利和估值空 间。这包括新赛道萌芽及传统核心资产中的经营拐点公司。目前大约 30%的传 • 市场策略转变：机构投资者逐步放弃杠铃策略，转向持续进攻和持有，显 示出对市场更为积极的态度，信心修复正从科技领域向经济领域扩散。 • 核心资产配置：核心资产是关注重点，A 股市场若要走出指数化行情，需 要龙头核心资产实现盈利和估值双重提升，包括新赛道萌芽及传统核心资 产中的经营拐点公司，目前约 30%的传统核心资产公司已走出经营拐点。 • 港股估值优势：港股市场仍处于早期阶段，互联网龙头、半导体 ...

文 ｜ 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 沈思越 连一席 杨帆 遥远 玛西高娃 于翔 展望春季，随着政策在三大领域的推进和发力，信心修复将从科技领域逐步扩散到经济领域，美国 对华限制的加强或是市场在春季的最大一次挑战，但也是信心全面修复的试金石；中国的新赛道在 萌芽，具备千亿美金市值潜力的新核心资产在扩容，同时传统赛道龙头当中约有3 0%的公司陆续出 现经营拐点；港股的行情还在早期，而前期相对滞涨的A股核心资产正加速出清，未来GARP策略 或接力极致弹性策略，中国的核心资产有望迎来春天。因此，我们沿着科技创新推动产业价值重 构、供给侧改革引导行业供需出清以及制度优化释放消费潜能三个视角，从科技、工业和消费板块 中甄选出"新核心资产3 0 "组合，作为春季的配置重心，我们认为在信心全面修复后，"好公 司"与"普通公司"之间的分化将远远超过"好行业"与"普通行业"之间的分化。 也是信心全面修复的试金石 4月开始美国对华政策不确定性可能会有明显提升。需要留意的风险点主要包括《美国优先贸易 政策备忘录》调查结果在4月初发布，《美国优先投资政策》备忘录的落实以及半导体领域可能 的进一步出口禁令和限制。我们复盘了2 0 1 ...

日本汽车业再曝造假丑闻 日本国土交通省（相当于交通部与建设部）6 月 3 日通报称，丰田、本田、马自达、雅马哈、铃木被 发现在多款车型认证过程中提交虚假数据，现在已被要求暂停出货。去年底，丰田旗下的大发汽车被 指长期伪造碰撞测试数据，已经暂停出货。 日本汽车业再曝造假丑闻 曾经的核心资产现在怎么样了？ 新能源销量二梯队背后的爆款们 当一家对冲基金要 IPO "截至 5 月底，共有 5 家汽车制造商涉嫌在车型指定申请中进行了不当行为……这种行为不仅会损害 用户的信任，同时也会动摇汽车认证制度的基础……" 日本国土交通省说。根据日本规定，进入日本 市场的整车和零部件，均需要通过型式指定，由日本国土交通省监管。日本的整车型式测试包括安 全，排放，油耗，噪音，由国土交通省指定机构负责测试和输出报告。 五家日本车企在各自官网刊登了相关说明。丰田三款现役车型（Corolla Fielder、Corolla Axio 以及 Yaris Cross）涉及提交行人保护测试虚假数据等问题，四款过去生产的车型（Crown、Isis、Sienta 和 雷克萨斯 RX）涉及碰撞测试的不当应对。 关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取 ...

不停在周期，向常识求解。 文丨龚方毅 编辑丨黄俊杰 2018 年，中国许多一线、新一线城市的房价涨到了 2006 年的五、六倍甚至更多。李迅雷又写了 《买自己买不到的东西》 。认为 "房价泡沫早晚会破裂" 的他不再建议配置房地产，但建议继续投 资那些依旧供不应求、真正稀缺的标的。比如专利技术买不到，但可以买相关的科技类上市公司； 平价茅台酒买不到，但可以买茅台股票；购汇实行额度管理，但可以买黄金对冲风险。 这两篇文章里的观点，都是他根据中国经济周期和结构变化所做的判断。2006 年，中国经济蓬勃发 展，日用商品在中国不再短缺，甚至有些过剩，但资本依然短缺。基于财富趋向集中、价格不菲的 稀缺资源会越来越贵的判断，李迅雷建议多数人 "倾囊甚至负债投入"，而不是等存够钱，这样才会 有更为丰厚的回报。 当年在一二线城市买了房、投资了茅台股票的人获得远超收入增长所带来的回报，真正享受到了改 革开放的巨大红利。到 2018 年，商品和资本都已经过剩，中国也经历了 "去产能""去库存" 的供给 侧改革，李迅雷因此建议将投资集中在供给更有限的 "买不到" 的核心资产。 如今，随着经济形势变化，李迅雷和他的研究也到了 "供不应 ...