要说白银这波行情，还真是有它的底气。一方面，美联储降息预期越来越强，美元走弱的可能性加大， 黄金白银这些避险资产自然就水涨船高。另一方面，工业需求也在给白银撑腰，光伏、新能源这些行业 对白银的需求量可不小，特别是光伏产业，每块电池板都得用上白银，这个基本盘相当扎实。 朋友们，我是帮主郑重。今早一开盘，就被白银价格刷了屏——这家伙居然悄无声息地创下了历史新 高，像一匹脱缰的野马，让不少投资者直呼意外。说真的，做了二十年财经记者，专注中长线投资的 我，看到这种走势也忍不住要仔细琢磨琢磨。 对于中长线投资者来说，现在这个时点更需要理性看待。如果你已经持有白银相关的资产，不妨考虑分 批止盈，锁定部分利润；如果还没进场，倒也不必急着追高，可以等待回调的机会。毕竟投资不是赌大 小，稳扎稳打才能走得更远。 我是帮主郑重，二十年市场经验告诉我：热闹的地方要谨慎，寂寞的地方要耐心。白银这波行情虽然诱 人，但真正的机会永远属于那些看得懂、拿得住的投资者。记住，投资最重要的是控制好风险，而不是 追求一夜暴富。 帮主的策略思考 不过话说回来，任何资产价格涨得太猛，总会让人心里打鼓。帮主我翻看了历史数据，发现白银的波动 性向来比黄金大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in oil prices is seen as a relief rather than a cause for alarm, indicating a potential turning point in the market dynamics [1] Oil Price Movement - As of November 28, 2025, WTI January futures rose to $58.85 per barrel, while Brent reached $62.65 per barrel, suggesting a slight increase but not a reversal in trend [1] - The current oil price is being influenced by a weakening dollar, with over 80% of market participants betting on a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, making oil priced in dollars appear cheaper [4] Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show that WTI crude oil is struggling below key moving averages, indicating a weak and consolidating market rather than a strong rebound [4] - The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are both trending downward, with prices clustering around $58, reflecting a weak oscillation rather than a bullish trend [4] Domestic Price Adjustments - The 24th round of domestic oil price adjustments is expected to result in a decrease of 85 yuan per ton, translating to a savings of 0.07 yuan per liter [4] - The current gasoline prices in various regions, such as Beijing (6.89 yuan for 92 gasoline) and Jiangsu (6.86 yuan for 92 gasoline), reflect the ongoing adjustments [5][6] Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The oil market is currently influenced by conflicting forces: a weakening dollar providing support and weak demand expectations exerting downward pressure [7] - The fluctuations in oil prices are increasingly seen as a reflection of collective economic sentiment rather than solely geopolitical factors, indicating a broader economic thermometer [7] - The future trajectory of oil prices remains uncertain, hinging on global economic conditions and consumer confidence [7]

Core Insights - The gold industry is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the CSI Gold Industry Index rising by 1.09% as of November 28, 2025, and several key stocks showing significant gains, including Shenhua A (up 5.49%) and China Gold International (up 3.61%) [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, has seen an increase in holdings by 4.57 tons, reflecting growing institutional confidence in gold and supporting upward price movements [2] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have risen significantly, with an 86.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut, which is expected to bolster gold prices by reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [4] Market Performance - The gold stock ETF has increased by 19.90% over the past three months, indicating strong market sentiment towards gold investments [1] - Spot gold prices have shown notable volatility, recently surpassing $4180 per ounce, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and weak U.S. economic data [5] - The precious metals sector is leading the commodity market, with the South China Precious Metals Index rising by 1%, primarily due to the anticipated rate cuts and a weakening dollar [5] Investment Sentiment - The market is reassessing the balance between rate cut expectations and geopolitical risk, with ongoing expectations for rate cuts likely to provide long-term upward momentum for gold prices [4] - The current macroeconomic environment is favorable for precious metals, with expectations of lower interest rates and a declining dollar supporting gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market assets are expected to continue strong performance until 2026, driven by a weaker dollar and explosive growth in AI investments [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness - The expectation of rising emerging market assets is largely based on the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy and a weaker dollar [2]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will exert downward pressure on the dollar, creating a favorable environment for emerging markets [3]. - The depreciation of the dollar has already shown positive effects on emerging market currencies this year, with a Bloomberg index indicating that returns from eight emerging market arbitrage trades funded by shorting the dollar have surged over 12%, marking the strongest performance since the global financial crisis [4]. Group 2: AI Investment Surge - In addition to favorable macroeconomic conditions, significant capital expenditures in the AI sector are seen as a strong support for emerging markets. JPMorgan predicts that U.S. capital expenditures related to AI will reach $628 billion by 2028, impacting emerging markets through increased tech product exports and rising metal prices [6]. - JPMorgan maintains a bullish stance on emerging market currencies and local currency bonds, expecting inflows of $40 to $50 billion into emerging market bond funds next year [6]. - Improved market sentiment and structural underweighting of emerging market assets by investors are expected to drive capital inflows [7]. Group 3: Institutional Optimism - Major institutions like Bank of America and Goldman Sachs predict further dollar weakness, with Bank of America’s baseline scenario anticipating a weaker dollar, declining interest rates, low oil prices, and moderate stock market gains [5]. - However, Bank of America also cautions that volatility may be higher than in the past six months, noting that historical trends indicate risk premiums typically do not remain at low levels for extended periods [5].

【东方汇理：美联储降息预期及新主席人选消息令美元承压走弱】东方汇理高级策略师David Forrester 指出，美国公布喜忧参半的经济数据后，市场加大了对美联储12月降息的押注，美元因此走弱。 Forrester认为，凯文·哈塞特成为接替鲍威尔出任美联储主席的热门人选的消息，也导致美元承压。 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices stabilized on November 24, supported by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the US next month and a weaker dollar [1][4] - On November 24, LME three-month copper closed at $10,773.00 per ton, down $4.50 or 0.04%, after reaching a historical high of $11,200 on October 29 due to supply concerns [1][2] - The dollar has been under pressure since comments from New York Fed President Williams indicated that the Fed could lower rates without jeopardizing inflation targets, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut from 40% to 75% [4] Group 2 - The weakening dollar makes metals priced in dollars cheaper for holders of other currencies, potentially boosting demand [4] - Technical analysis indicates that copper's resistance level is near the 21-day moving average at approximately $10,836, with support around $10,625, the 50-day moving average [4] - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that while copper prices may remain capped at $11,000 per ton in the 2026/2027 fiscal year due to oversupply, a supply shortage is expected later in the decade driven by resource constraints and increased demand from key industries [4]

Core Viewpoint - UBS Global Wealth Management strategists predict a potential weakening of the US dollar due to anticipated weak economic data to be released next week [1] Economic Data Summary - Key economic indicators to be released include retail sales, consumer confidence, and existing home sales on Tuesday, followed by durable goods orders, weekly initial jobless claims, and new home sales on Wednesday [1] - The strategists believe that the upcoming data will be weak enough to raise market expectations for a rate cut in December, which could put downward pressure on the dollar by year-end [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is set to release a backlog of important data, including employment and inflation indicators, which are expected to show weakness, potentially lowering U.S. Treasury yields and reigniting market expectations for interest rate cuts in early 2026, while providing a rebound opportunity for gold that has been pressured by rising real yields [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The upcoming data release is anticipated to indicate a cooling U.S. economy, which could lead to lower Treasury yields [1] - Market expectations are leaning towards weaker U.S. data, which may influence investment strategies [1] Group 2: Gold Market Outlook - Recent declines in gold prices appear to be more of a position adjustment rather than a trend reversal [1] - The outlook for gold remains positive, with investors closely monitoring U.S. real yields, a weakening dollar, and forthcoming economic data [1] - If the data suggests a slowdown in the U.S. economy, gold is expected to rebound in the following week [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Asian currencies, particularly those of China and South Korea, are expected to benefit significantly from the weakening US dollar, which is projected to continue until 2026 [1][2] - The US dollar has depreciated by 7.1% this year, and while the decline is expected to slow, the trend will persist, making Asian currencies potential winners [1] - The South Korean stock market has surged approximately 70% this year, and the Chinese stock market has risen over 35%, yet their currencies, the won and yuan, have not appreciated correspondingly, indicating potential for future gains [1] Group 2 - The South Korean won has only increased by about 1% in 2025 after four consecutive years of decline, while the offshore yuan has risen over 3%, ranking fifth among Asian currencies this year [2] - The easing of US-China trade tensions and the potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in December could further weaken the dollar [2] - Despite strong performance in the US economy, other countries are showing even better results, leading global investors to seek valuation advantages in these markets [2]

美联储哈玛克表示，尽管美元并不是央行讨论中的核心议题，但今年美元的走弱似乎并不令人担忧。哈 马克说："我认为今年关于美元以及其走弱的讨论很多。但重要的是要记住，我们是从美元极度强势的 状态开始的，因此今年的走弱在很大程度上只是让美元更接近理论上的公允估值，与其他货币相比更为 合理。"哈马克还表示，利率政策应保持限制性，这样才能对仍令人担忧的通胀水平施加下行压力。她 指出："鉴于美联储在通胀和就业方面的双重使命面临挑战，这是货币政策的一个艰难时期。""但综合 来看，我认为我们需要保持一定程度的紧缩，以继续对通胀施压，使通其回落到我们的目标水 平。"（格隆汇） ...