美元走弱

Search documents
金荣中国:现货黄金维持强势表现,守住短期高位区间震荡
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 07:49
Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices remain strong, trading around $3,381, following a slight decline of 0.34% to $3,369.19 on August 6, after reaching a two-week high of $3,390 [1][3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have surged, with the probability increasing from 46.7% to 92% due to disappointing July employment data [3][5] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly from U.S. tariffs on India and Switzerland, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4][5] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of weakness, with July job additions significantly below expectations and prior months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs, raising concerns about economic slowdown [3][4] - The ISM report indicates slowing service sector growth but increasing price pressures, which may limit the extent of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are expected to challenge the $3,400 level, with support seen around $3,360, indicating a potential upward trend [6][7] - Short-term trading strategies suggest entering long positions near $3,370 with a stop loss at $3,359 and targets set at $3,400 to $3,415 [6] - The market is currently experiencing volatility, with traders advised to monitor Federal Reserve officials' speeches and initial jobless claims data for further direction [5][7]
黄金股票ETF(517400)盘中上涨1.5%,短期冲高动能与中长期支撑因素并存
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-07 07:18
没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接A(021673),国泰中证沪深 港黄金产业股票ETF发起联接C(021674)。 注:如提及个股仅供参考,不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考,不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动,不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考,不 构成任何投资建议,也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品,请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险,投资需谨慎。 国信证券指出,短期黄金价格有概率再度上冲,中长期依旧看多,地缘冲突、美元走弱与降息预期、非 美国家央行持续购金等多重逻辑继续支撑金价。 天风证券指出,美联储独立性丧失及政治干预风险加剧,可能复现70年代滞胀情景,为黄金长牛提供底 层逻辑支撑。7月非农数据大幅下修,反映美国经济下行压力,私营部门就业疲软凸显高利率挤出效 应,市场对9月降息预期升至近90%。联储鹰派理事提前辞职、就业统计部门换帅等事件进一步削弱数 据可信度与政策独立性,美元信用弱化强化黄金货币属性。当前非农下修与人事变动形成金融属性(降 息预期)与货币属性(美元走弱)共振,持续看好贵金属板块 ...
这家华尔街大行“短期看高”金价,明年看跌的逻辑
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-05 04:07
花旗一举扭转此前观点,认为当前由关税引发的通胀担忧、劳动力市场走弱以及美元疲软预期,共同构成了未来三个月内金价上涨的"完美风暴"。 (花旗上调目标价位至3500美元/盎司,过去3个月金价处于"区间波 动"状态) 据追风交易台消息,8月3日花旗研报指出,黄金在未来三个月内有望创下历史新高,目标价位上调至3500美元/盎司,这为寻求对冲美股下跌、美元走软 以及美国经济周期性风险的投资者提供了短期战术机会。 然而随着美国政府可能在2026年推出刺激措施,经济基本面将得到改善,花旗预计届时金价将面临周期性回调的压力。此外花旗强调对于黄金生产商而 言,当前高达3900美元的远期价格,则提供了一个锁定未来利润的"五十年一遇"的良机。 短期看涨:美股美元双重对冲需求推动金价上行 今年以来,黄金投资需求加速上涨直接与美股、美元的下行密切挂钩。 花旗认为本轮金价上涨并非结构性因素为主(如央行购金规模温和增加),而是与"周期性"增长、通胀担忧以及美股美元双重对冲需求有关。 ("周期性"增长、通胀担忧以及美元走弱推动金价走高) 数据显示,美欧受关税影响的股票下跌与美元指数走弱同步出现,而黄金ETF持仓大幅增加。美元自2月起下跌约1 ...
美联储9月降息预期持续升温,纽约金价4日续涨0.37%
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-05 01:08
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increase in gold and silver prices driven by market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, following a disappointing U.S. employment report [1] - On December 4, 2025 gold futures rose by $12.6, closing at $3428.60 per ounce, marking a 0.37% increase [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.36% to 98.786, contributing to the rise in precious metal prices [1] Group 2 - Citibank raised its gold price forecast for the next three months from $3300 to $3500 per ounce, citing ongoing inflation concerns and a weaker dollar as factors that will drive gold prices higher [1] - The expected trading range for gold was adjusted from $3100-$3500 to $3300-$3600 [1] - Silver futures for September delivery increased by 34 cents, closing at $37.445 per ounce, with a 0.92% rise [1]
美元退潮与美联储降息预期点燃风险偏好! 新兴市场资产吹响反攻号角
智通财经网· 2025-08-04 23:56
Group 1 - The benchmark index measuring sovereign currencies and stocks in developing economies has risen, marking its best performance in recent months due to a rebound in risk assets amid speculation of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar [1][2] - Investment institutions are increasingly optimistic about emerging market assets, with firms like JPMorgan and Amundi SA shifting their focus from developed markets to emerging markets like China, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions [1][8] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index has increased by nearly 0.5%, achieving its largest single-day gain in over a month, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index rose by 0.9%, outperforming developed market indices [1] Group 2 - Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut the benchmark interest rate as early as next month, with market concerns about the independence of the Fed and statistical agencies growing due to recent personnel changes [2][7] - The non-farm payroll report for July showed only 73,000 jobs added, with downward revisions to previous months' data totaling 258,000 jobs, leading to a significant increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts [5][6] - The Philippine peso has performed best among emerging market currencies, with most Asian currencies strengthening against the dollar, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut [7] Group 3 - The argument for a bearish dollar index remains valid, as expectations of Fed rate cuts are likely to support emerging markets despite potential market volatility [5] - The ongoing trade policies and immigration restrictions under the Trump administration have contributed to the decline of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, prompting a shift in investment strategies towards emerging markets [8][9] - JPMorgan has reaffirmed its bullish stance on emerging market stocks, citing strong performance and favorable macroeconomic drivers, while Amundi SA has also shifted its asset allocation towards Europe and emerging markets [8][9]
新兴市场债券展现韧性
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-08-01 06:45
相比之下,因美国政策对本国经济的拖累程度高于对全球其他地区的影响,新兴市场预计将从增长 差异扩大中受惠。虽然全球增长预期普遍下调,但美国经济放缓的速度或显著高于新兴市场。 新兴市场基本面相对保持强韧,近期表现优于发达市场国家。尽管财政赤字仍然存在,但许多新兴 市场国家的12个月平均财政赤字持续改善,令公共债务水平保持稳定,推动多个新兴市场的主权债信用 升级。美元走弱将有助于降低新兴市场公债与GDP的比率,创造更有利的外部环境。新兴市场央行政策 也具有支持性,由于一些新兴央行在疫情后提前加息,令通胀受控而货币亦保持稳定,因此有足够空间 推行松宽政策以提振国内需求。 新兴市场的信用利差处于较窄的范围内,但不同信用评级类别的分歧依然明显。新兴市场硬货币资 产更具吸引力,因此收益率及套利机会更为可观,相对价值高于其他信贷市场,此外还能根据全球宏观 环境及各国独有的基本面,判断表现较佳和落后的国家。即使在第二季度,新兴市场高收益主权债表现 亦相当稳健。 新兴市场债券此前虽然受到美国"对等关税"的一些负面影响,但在部分关税暂缓执行甚至取消后, 已经出现反弹。但值得注意的是,各领域表现分化,特别是对冲市场波动的本地利率收益 ...
美元利好已尽?渣打:美联储转鸽将成最大威胁!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-29 06:01
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the recent strengthening of the US dollar, it may face challenges due to potential dovish shifts from the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a faster-than-expected rate cut [1][2] - Standard Chartered Bank indicates that the recent weakness of the dollar may reflect market relief that the worst outcomes from trade negotiations are unlikely to occur, but attention is now shifting to the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Market expectations for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting are low, with no rate cuts priced in for July and only a 16 basis point cut anticipated for September [1][2] Group 2 - The divergence among FOMC members has narrowed, focusing primarily on the impact of tariffs, with some members advocating for ignoring temporary price increases while others, including Chairman Powell, suggest that the Fed could have been more accommodative without tariffs [2] - Economic data, particularly the upcoming employment report, is expected to become a focal point, with Standard Chartered warning that downside risks may outweigh consensus expectations [3] - The dollar is expected to weaken moderately over the next few months, but significant declines will depend more on actual shifts in Federal Reserve policy rather than further trade negotiation news [3]
金属领跑大宗商品!贵金属涨26%,工业金属却收警报“前景中性偏空”
智通财经网· 2025-07-25 11:48
智通财经APP获悉,截至7月22日,金属已成为2025年表现最佳的大宗商品子类,其中贵金属年内涨幅 达26.2%,工业金属上涨10.9%。然而,展望今年剩余时间,BMI研究机构对工业金属维持中性偏空的 展望,认为预期需求将走弱。 该机构近期维持2025年黄金均价3100美元/盎司的预测,并对未来几个月的金价持中性态度。 其认为,美联储在2025年末及2026年的降息声明,将是未来金价上涨的关键因素。 此外,BMI预计黄金将继续受益于各国央行增持行为,同时特朗普政府贸易政策变动的不确定性也将为 金价提供支撑底线。 中国市场金属消费在未来几个季度可能面临越来越大的阻力,这一方面来自美国关税政策的不确定性, 另一方面源于曾推动零售销售增长的消费品以旧换新政策效应逐渐减弱。 BMI分析师指出,从积极面来看,美元走弱可能在下半年为金属价格提供支撑。鉴于金属与美元存在反 向关联,这一因素将帮助金属价格维持稳定,遏制潜在跌幅。 至于贵金属,受避险需求、美元走弱以及美联储可能转向宽松政策带来的投资者信心改善等因素推动, 黄金价格目前在每盎司3342美元附近波动。 这主要源于中国市场消费疲软,以及2025年全球增长前景放缓,全 ...
黄金时间·每日论金:金价冲高遇阻,暂重回调整格局
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-24 06:47
Core Viewpoint - International spot gold prices experienced a decline, closing down $44.50, or 1.30%, indicating a failed attempt to challenge the previous high of $3,450, leading to a short-term adjustment phase for gold prices [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Influences - The announcement of a trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan has eased market risk sentiment, causing gold prices to face resistance below the mid-June high [1] - The upcoming deadline of August 1 for the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" suspension and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting contribute to significant market uncertainty [1] - Expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year may provide potential support for the gold market [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have lost the critical $3,400 level, facing resistance near the previous high of $3,450, indicating a potential for further correction [1] - The important support level for gold is at the Bollinger Band's middle track around $3,340, which is crucial for maintaining the medium-term upward trend [2] - Current trading is expected to fluctuate within the range of $3,365 to $3,410, with the price near the 5-day moving average [2]
有色商品日报(2025年7月23日)-20250723
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 06:57
有色商品日报 有色商品日报(2025 年 7 月 23 日) 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜上涨 0.31%至 9898 美元/吨;SHFE 铜上涨 0.4%至 元/吨;国内现货 | | | 79970 | | | | | 进口仍处于小幅亏损状态。宏观方面,美国财长贝森特表示,关税收入"数额巨大", | | | | | | | | 可能占美国 GDP 的 1%,未来十年关税收入有望达到 2.8 | | | 万亿美元,8 | 月 1 | 日是最后期 | | | 限,但不代表不可以再谈。另外,在解雇鲍威尔方面态度出现软化。美国总统特朗普表 | | | | | | | | 示,美国与日本、菲律宾、印尼等国接近达成协议。国内方面,央行表示国内房地产贷 | | | | | | | | 款增速回升,住户消费贷款保持增长。库存方面来看,LME 吨至 | | | 库存增加 | 2775 | 124850 | | 铜 | 吨;Comex 库存增加 379 吨至 221156 万吨;SHF ...