曼哈顿国际贸易法院的一纸裁决点燃市场——法院认定特朗普对贸易顺差国全面加征关税的行为"越 权"，并暂缓大部分关税生效。尽管白宫立即上诉并宣称将动用其他法律工具(如《国际经济和平等政策 法案》)，但这一裁决已造成三重冲击： 周四（5月29日）金价探底回升，亚市一度触及5月20日以来最低3245.88美元/盎司，随后展开反弹，盘 中最高触及3330.92，收报3317.59美元/盎司，受助于美国劳动力市场数据疲软，与此同时，市场参与者 消化法院阻止美国总统特朗普大部分关税措施的裁决。 【要闻速递】 金融市场应激反应：亚洲股市短暂狂欢后，美元指数回落0.5%，黄金成为政策不确定性的终极对冲工 具。 【黄金技术面分析】 昨日早盘开盘后急速下探至3245附近，随后迅速企稳反弹，盘中触及3320 - 3330区间，最终日线以长下 影阳线报收。尽管出现冲高表现，但从短期技术面来看，黄金仍面临一定*。今日恰逢周五，周线即将 收官。根据近期市场走势的阴阳转换规律，今日周线收阴的概率较大。若周线欲收阳，黄金需有效站稳 3360上方。综合昨日行情，预计今日早盘将以震荡为主。 企业信心崩塌：路透统计显示，特朗普关税已导致美国企业损失 ...

上周五，特朗普声称对欧洲的谈判策略感到不满。据央视新闻，当地时间5月23日，特朗普在社交媒体上表示，建议自6月1日起对欧盟征收50%的关 税。 然而，周日，在与欧盟委员会主席乌苏拉·冯德莱恩通话后，新华社报道称，特朗普同意将对欧盟征收50%关税的起征时间从6月1日延至7月9日。 对此，诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗·克鲁格曼27日通过一篇"公开信"向欧洲领导人发出严厉警告，敦促他们停止对美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普的"哄骗"策 略，并呼吁欧洲像一个真正的"大国"一样行事。 他指出，欧洲在经济上并非弱者，其对美出口政策已然有利，且贸易顺差存在会计因素。欧洲需要克服"习得性无助"。 "你比你想象的要强大。行动起来。" 克鲁格曼的劝告：勿向特朗普妥协 冯德莱恩25日稍早前在社交媒体X上发文说，她与特朗普有一次"好的通话"，但"要达成好的协议，我们需要时间，直至7月9日"。冯德莱恩表示，欧盟 准备好"迅速且果断地"推进与美方的谈判。 克鲁格曼表示，"我不知道冯德莱恩说了什么"，但他强调，"一个可能发生或可能不发生、威胁巨大的关税，在6周内会大大增加破坏性的不确定性。" 他随即向欧盟委员会和整个欧盟提出了建议： "不要试图安抚特朗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing trade surplus of China, which reached nearly $1 trillion last year, and the implications this has for U.S.-China relations, highlighting the U.S. concerns over China's manufacturing dominance and its impact on American industries [3][12][15]. Trade Surplus - Trade surplus is defined as a situation where a country's exports exceed its imports, with China achieving a trade surplus close to $1 trillion last year [3]. - China's ability to export such a large volume of goods is attributed to its scale of manufacturing and cost control, which has made its products attractive to global buyers [3][12]. U.S. Perspective - The U.S. perceives China's reliance on manufacturing as a deviation from previous development paths, leading to concerns about global demand insufficiency rather than overcapacity [4][12]. - The decline of U.S. industrial power post-World War II has contributed to wealth disparity and dissatisfaction among American blue-collar workers, who feel marginalized by globalization [4][5][10]. Economic and Security Concerns - The U.S. is motivated by economic and security concerns, recognizing that industrial capacity is closely linked to military manufacturing capabilities [6][12]. - Events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have heightened U.S. awareness of the risks associated with over-reliance on foreign supply chains [6][12]. Comparative Advantage Theory - The article references the comparative advantage theory, suggesting that while countries should specialize in their strengths, China's broad manufacturing capabilities have led to a convergence of advantages, creating competitive pressures on developed nations [8][9]. - The fear is that if China excels in high-end manufacturing, particularly in semiconductors, it could undermine the remaining industrial advantages of developed countries like the U.S. [9][12]. Globalization and Competition - The article posits that as comparative advantage theories fail, globalization may devolve into a zero-sum game, leading to intensified competition and trade friction [13][14]. - China's significant trade surplus is viewed as a threat to the industrial bases of developed countries, prompting fears of a strategic shift in global manufacturing [14][15]. Future Implications - As tensions rise, China is encouraged to expand its domestic market and reduce reliance on Western economies, while seeking new emerging markets [15][16]. - The article concludes that the competition between the U.S. and China is a natural response to the evolving global economic landscape, where both nations must adapt to new realities [16].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's trade surplus with the United States for the fiscal year 2024 is projected to reach 9.048 trillion yen, which the Trump administration views as a significant issue. To eliminate this surplus, Japan would need to increase its imports of American cars by 72 times, amounting to approximately 965,000 vehicles, which would represent a quarter of Japan's new car sales [1]. Group 1: Trade Surplus and Negotiations - The upcoming third ministerial-level talks between Japan and the U.S. are centered around tariff negotiations, with Japan planning to use increased imports of U.S. agricultural products as leverage [1]. - Japan's exports to the U.S. are estimated at 21.6483 trillion yen, while imports are at 12.6434 trillion yen, resulting in a trade surplus of 9.048 trillion yen [1]. - The Trump administration has expressed dissatisfaction with the low sales of American cars in Japan, and there is interest in expanding U.S. rice exports [1]. Group 2: Import Requirements for Cars, Rice, and Corn - To eliminate the trade surplus through car imports, Japan would need to import approximately 965,000 American cars, a significant increase from the current 13,000 vehicles [2]. - Japan currently imports 340,000 tons of rice from the U.S., but to eliminate the trade surplus, this would need to increase to about 6.402 million tons, nearly 190 times the current amount [2]. - For corn, Japan would need to purchase approximately 230 million tons from the U.S., which is 18 times the current import volume of 12.8 million tons, equating to 60% of U.S. corn production and 70% of U.S. consumption [3]. Group 3: Impact of Tariffs and Export Reductions - If the U.S. maintains tariffs on cars and steel, Japan's exports to the U.S. could decrease by 4.3 trillion yen, potentially halving the trade surplus and reducing Japan's GDP by 0.7% [4].

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stated that selling Japanese cars manufactured in the U.S. is a way to reduce trade surplus, emphasizing that safety standards should not be compromised for the sake of importing American cars [1] Group 1 - The Japanese government is exploring strategies to address trade surplus issues with the U.S. [1] - The focus is on promoting the sale of Japanese cars produced in the U.S. as a potential solution [1] - There is a strong stance on maintaining safety standards without compromising for American car imports [1]

【文/观察者网 陈思佳】美国总统特朗普公布其关税政策后，日本迅速与美国展开谈判，试图"率先达成 贸易协议"。但由于双方未能在汽车和钢铝关税等问题上达成一致，日本政商界也强烈反对任何危及国 家利益的协议，日本政府不得不改变立场，开始与美国"周旋"。 据路透社5月20日报道，日本首席贸易谈判代表、经济再生大臣赤泽亮正在当天的例行新闻发布会上表 示，日本将坚持要求美国取消关税，不会支持损害日本利益的贸易协议。赤泽将在本周前往华盛顿，可 能在当地时间23日与美国贸易代表格里尔进行第三轮谈判。 赤泽在新闻发布会上说："美国的一系列关税，包括'对等关税'以及对汽车、汽车零部件、钢铁和铝的 关税，令人遗憾。我们寻求撤销所有关税的立场没有改变。" 他表示，日美两国官员已于当地时间19日在华盛顿举行工作层面的贸易谈判，第三轮部长级谈判的时间 尚未确定。 英文的《日本时报》表示，日本将在下一轮谈判中采取何种立场一直不明朗，官员们反复呼吁美国"重 新审视"这些措施。这一表述含糊不清，可以解读为日本在某种程度上愿意妥协。但赤泽彻底澄清了这 一点，确认了日方的强硬立场。 "我与首相在理解上不存在任何分歧，"他接着说，"我从谈判一开始的 ...

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, with the U.S. Treasury Secretary expressing skepticism towards Moody's, labeling it as a "lagging indicator" [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant stated that tariff discussions are focused on 18 key partnerships, warning that tariffs could revert to levels seen on April 2 if negotiations are not sincere [1] - Exports from the EU to the U.S. surged by 59% ahead of Trump's "liberation day," resulting in a record trade surplus [1] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank's president reported constructive discussions with the U.S. regarding foreign exchange issues, asserting that Switzerland is not a currency manipulator [1] - ECB Governing Council member Villeroy hinted at the possibility of lowering interest rates below 2%, indicating no reason for a further 50 basis point cut in the foreseeable future [1] - ECB Chief Economist Lane announced that an updated strategy will be released in the second half of the year, incorporating U.S. tariff uncertainties into June's forecasts [1] Group 3 - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Ueda Shinichi, indicated that if the economy and prices improve as predicted, further interest rate hikes will continue [1] - Canadian Finance Minister noted that most tariffs on the U.S. remain in place [1]

Group 1 - Japan is shifting to a tougher stance in trade negotiations with the U.S., focusing on securing favorable terms rather than rushing to finalize an agreement [1][3] - The Japanese government aims to eliminate all new tariffs, including a 25% tariff on imported cars and steel, and a 24% "reciprocal tariff" on other Japanese goods [3][4] - Japanese officials emphasize that the automotive sector is crucial, accounting for 81% of Japan's trade surplus with the U.S., making it essential to address auto tariffs in negotiations [4][5] Group 2 - Major Japanese automakers are projected to lose over $19 billion due to U.S. tariff policies, with Toyota expected to face significant revenue reductions [4][5] - The Japanese economy has shown signs of weakness, with the first quarter of this year experiencing negative GDP growth, highlighting the urgency of the trade negotiations [5] - Japan's reliance on the U.S. for security while maintaining a trade surplus complicates the negotiations, as U.S. President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Japan's trade practices [5][7] Group 3 - Japan is considering strategies such as importing cars produced by Japanese companies in the U.S. back to Japan to negotiate tariff reductions [7] - There is speculation that Japan may leverage its holdings of $1.126 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds as a negotiation tactic, although officials have downplayed this approach [8]

特朗普"解放日"前，欧盟对美出口飙升59%，贸易顺差创历史新高 金十数据5月16日讯，在特朗普宣布与世界其他国家进行所谓的"解放日"贸易战之前的一个月，欧盟对 美国的出口飙升。欧盟统计局上周五发布的数据显示，今年3月，欧盟通过大西洋运往美国的货物总价 值达到714亿欧元，同比增长59%，这使得欧盟当月对美国的贸易顺差达到407亿欧元，是迄今为止最高 的。这些数据表明，为了避免特朗普的关税影响，出口商希望及时将货物运至美国港口，从而提前装 货。 ...

智通财经5月16日电，欧盟3月对美贸易顺差增至407亿欧元。 ...