前几天，我去银行办理业务，发现银行营业厅里面没几个人。于是，我与银行员工聊了起来。她说：现在储户存钱的热情在持续下降，都没有人存钱了，不 知道储户都在想什么呢？我在听了该员工的诉苦之后，发现1年期的定存利率从2023年时的2.25%，降到了现在的1.25%。如果你把10万元存入银行，一年利 息只有1250元，要比之前足足减少了1000元。 但需要提醒大家的是，投资股票、基金、银行理财产品等品种都是有风险的，弄不好会亏掉本金。而银行存款利率再低至少本金和利息是有保障的。事实 上，对于不同风险承受能力的储户，我们给出的理财建议也是完全不一样的： 如果你是厌恶风险的投资者，那还是应该把钱存在银行，但可以尽量实现存款利率的最大化：①应把钱存到股份制银行，股份制银行的存款利率要高于国有 银行；②如果储户存款超过20万，可以购买股份制银行的大额存单；③还可以把长期不用的钱购买3年期的定期存款，这样可以锁定利率。当然，你还可以 购买3年期的国债。 第一，存款利率实在太低，觉得存钱不划算。为此，有储户认为，存款利率进入到"1时代"，存钱已经没什么意思，就把钱放在家里的保险柜里，或者用于 各种消费（比如，旅游、装修等方面）。 ...

劳动力市场方面，就业状况总体稳定。十二个辖区中有八个报告招聘活动未发生显著变化。报告指出，企业当前更多是在填补既有岗位的空缺，而非大规模 新增职位。技术工人、医疗和工程领域的人才短缺问题持续存在，但员工的跳槽率有所下降。一个值得注意的趋势是，多个辖区的企业正在探索人工智能技 术的应用，其主要目的在于提升生产效率与优化未来的人力资源配置，目前该技术对就业的直接替代影响尚属有限。工资增长保持中等速度，多数企业反馈 薪资增速已趋向"正常化"。 去年，美联储累计降息七十五个基点，以应对劳动力市场可能出现的疲软。但在去年十二月的货币政策会议上，美联储释放出暂停的信号，倾向于在通胀形 势出现进一步明确改善前，将政策利率维持在百分之三点五至三点七五区间。金融市场普遍预期，美联储在即将召开的一月议息会议上将继续按兵不动。 美国消费支出在报告覆盖周期内普遍录得小幅增长，这主要得益于假日购物季的带动。然而，一个显著的分化现象是，高收入群体的消费表现明显强于中低 收入群体。后者对价格变动更为敏感，在非必需品和服务的支出上显得更为谨慎。 在备受关注的通胀问题上，由关税引致的成本压力成为所有辖区共同提及的焦点。部分企业表示，早期主要通 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's hesitation in nominating Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chairman adds uncertainty to the selection process, as he prefers Hassett to remain as a key economic advisor in the White House [1][2]. Group 1: Nomination Uncertainty - Trump expressed a desire for Hassett to stay in his current role, indicating that moving him could result in losing a significant economic spokesperson [2][3]. - Following Trump's comments, analysts speculate that Kevin Warsh has emerged as a leading candidate for the Fed Chair position, with Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha noting that this news positions Warsh as a top contender [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - After Trump's remarks, the dollar rebounded slightly from its intraday low, while the stock market shifted from gains to losses, reflecting market reactions to the uncertainty surrounding the Fed Chair nomination [4]. - The two-year Treasury yield increased by 2.6 basis points, reaching above 3.59%, indicating market adjustments to the evolving situation [4]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The search for a new Fed Chair occurs at a delicate moment for monetary policymakers, as the U.S. economy faces conflicting pressures [6]. - Recent employment data shows signs of weakness, prompting calls within the Fed for rate cuts to support the job market, while inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target, complicating the decision-making process [7][8]. - The new Fed Chair is expected to seek further rate cuts, aligning with Trump's preferences, but may face challenges in building consensus within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [8].

据路透社1月15日报道，英国国家统计局当天公布的预估数据显示，2025年11月份，主要受捷豹路虎自 遭遇网络攻击后恢复全面生产的推动，英国内生产总值(GDP)环比增长0.3%，好于预期。 2025年11月份，英GDP实现了自2025年6月以来的最快增长。2025年10月份，英GDP下滑0.1%。11月份 增长中，近一半来自工业产出1.1%的增长，而工业产出增长主要原因是汽车业产出实现25%的跃升。这 是自2020年7月份英放松疫情限制措施以来，汽车产出月度最大增幅。同时，占英经济主导地位的服务 业11月份表现也好于预期，环比增长0.3%。该行业10月份萎缩0.3%。 市场分析人士认为，在英财政大臣里夫斯2025年11月26日发布预算案前，不少企业持观望态度，且对英 政府将进一步加税忧心忡忡。新公布的数据显示，预算案对英经济造成的影响实际并未如预期那般严 重。 德意志银行英国首席经济学家桑杰.拉贾(Sanjay Raja)认为，鉴于2025年11月份数据好于预期及关于预算 案的不确定性消退，2026年初英经济增长有望超出此前预测。 报道称，尽管英首相斯塔默和财政大臣里夫斯承诺将大力促进英经济增长，但在工党赢得大 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that UK retail spending in December 2025 grew at its slowest pace in seven months, with growth below the inflation rate [1][2] - The British Retail Consortium reported a year-on-year retail sales growth of only 1.2% in December, down from 1.4% in November, marking the lowest growth since May 2025 [1] - Non-food sales remained flat before December 25, with electronic gifts performing worse than expected, reflecting consumer caution due to rising living costs [1] Group 2 - For the entire year of 2025, retail sales grew by 2.3%, but this was below the latest inflation rate of 3.2% and the estimated 3.4% for 2025, indicating a reduction in consumer purchasing [2] - Non-food sales in December saw a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, significantly lower than the 1.1% average growth over the past 12 months [2] - Barclays reported a year-on-year decline in consumer spending of 1.7% in December, following a 1.1% decline in November, suggesting a weak end to 2025 [2]

近日市场因韧性十足的劳动力市场数据以及通胀粘性对于美联储降息预期明显降温之际，美联储官员们 最新讲话所释放出的集体鹰派立场可谓令降息预期更加萎靡。货币政策立场长期以来温和鹰派的美联储 副主席菲利普.杰斐逊表示，基准利率已经非常接近既不刺激也不放缓经济的水平——这句话意味着在 副主席杰斐逊看来在2026年降息并不具备紧迫性，他强调，这使得美联储官员们能够在应对不断变化的 经济风险时处于有利位置。 近期多位美联储官员表达对于2026年货币政策的鹰派立场之际，正值"降息交易"主题就已经开始呈现出 明显的疲软态势。自12月的多项劳动力市场统计数据公布以来，叠加最新公布的11月PPI与12月CPI显示 美国通胀降温节奏缓慢，以及最新公布的美国零售销售额数据实现超预期增长，利率期货交易员们对于 美联储2026年降息预期可谓持续降温。 "CME美联储观察工具"显示，利率期货市场交易员们当前对于2026年美联储降息押注从2025年底曾经 定价的降息三次预期缩减至降息两次，且交易员们普遍押注2026年首次降息时机为6月，而不是此前押 注的3月。不过，"CME美联储观察工具"显示出的交易员降息预期仍然高于FOMC点阵图中值所显示 ...

周五收益率的上升表明，投资者反而在做一个更直接的演算：如果美联储在短期内降息更多，那么即使 是长期收益率也应该更低；如果降息更少，长期收益率则会更高。 责任编辑：李桐 有迹象显示美国总统特朗普不会选择其首席经济顾问凯文·哈塞特担任下一任美联储主席，这让债券市 场从长达数月的沉寂中猛然惊醒。 四个多月来，基准10年期美国国债收益率基本在4%至4.2%左右的区间内徘徊。但在周五，该收益率突 破了这一区间的上限。目前，该收益率有望自去年9月3日以来首次收于4.2%上方。 在特朗普在白宫的一次活动中公开告诉哈塞特，他希望哈塞特留任现职而不是调往美联储后，收益率大 幅跳升。 有迹象显示美国总统特朗普不会选择其首席经济顾问凯文·哈塞特担任下一任美联储主席，这让债券市 场从长达数月的沉寂中猛然惊醒。 四个多月来，基准10年期美国国债收益率基本在4%至4.2%左右的区间内徘徊。但在周五，该收益率突 破了这一区间的上限。目前，该收益率有望自去年9月3日以来首次收于4.2%上方。 在特朗普在白宫的一次活动中公开告诉哈塞特，他希望哈塞特留任现职而不是调往美联储后，收益率大 幅跳升。 债券市场的这一反应与一些投资者的论点相悖，这些投 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman advocates for readiness to lower interest rates due to a weakening labor market, emphasizing the need for the Fed to remain responsive to employment conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - The labor market is showing signs of increasing vulnerability, with potential deterioration expected in the coming months, despite a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.4% [3]. - December's job growth fell short of expectations, indicating cautious hiring and limited layoffs, which may signal a slowdown in the labor market for the year [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Stance - Bowman describes the current monetary policy as "moderately restrictive," indicating ongoing efforts to combat inflation and support economic growth [1]. - There is a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate policies, with some believing that current rates are insufficient to effectively curb inflation, leading to a cautious stance on further rate cuts [5]. Group 3: Inflation Outlook - Bowman expresses a relatively optimistic view on inflation, noting that inflationary pressures are easing, partly due to reduced tariff impacts, with underlying inflation nearing the Fed's 2% target [1]. - The Fed's dual mandate of managing inflation and employment presents uneven risks, necessitating a flexible approach to policy decisions [4]. Group 4: Financial Market Vulnerabilities - Concerns are raised about potential vulnerabilities in financial markets, particularly regarding high stock prices and the risk of disappointing returns from AI investments, which could lead to sharp corrections in stock prices [1]. Group 5: Regulatory Focus - In terms of banking regulation, Bowman emphasizes the need to improve merger review processes, assess capital requirements across the banking system, and enhance examiner training and development [2].

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for effective policy and economic stability, and external pressures, particularly from political figures, pose significant risks to this independence [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The U.S. Department of Justice has initiated a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1]. - Patrick Harker emphasizes that any external pressure on the Federal Reserve is dangerous and could undermine its decision-making effectiveness, impacting both the U.S. economy and the global financial system [1][3]. - Harker notes that the Federal Reserve's structure allows it to maintain a degree of political independence, which is essential for making unpopular decisions, such as raising interest rates during high inflation [3]. Group 2: Current Economic Challenges - The U.S. economy is facing multiple challenges, including persistent inflation around 3%, high housing costs, and stagnant labor markets [1][4]. - Harker warns that pursuing short-term economic stimulus through significant interest rate cuts could exacerbate structural issues rather than resolve them [2][5]. - The inflation rate remains stubbornly high, influenced by factors such as tariffs and rising housing and healthcare costs, which are expected to persist [4][7]. Group 3: Policy Outlook and Employment - Harker indicates that the labor market is showing signs of stagnation, with job growth concentrated in healthcare and government services, while manufacturing jobs are declining [8]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and housing costs will significantly influence inflation trends moving forward [9][10]. - Harker suggests that the Federal Reserve may consider one interest rate cut this year, but the decision will depend on the evolving economic landscape [11]. Group 4: Global Economic Perspective - Harker believes that the U.S. economy will perform reasonably well, supported by investments in artificial intelligence and data centers, but overall growth remains modest [13]. - The potential for global growth is seen in Asia, although risks persist due to the changing nature of U.S. policies [14]. - Harker stresses the importance of trust and cooperation among nations to avoid stagnation in global affairs, highlighting that excessive distrust could hinder progress [16].

记者丨 施诗 李依农 《全球财经连线》： 我们看到司法部已发起刑事调查，针对美联储以及美联储主席鲍 威尔。你如何看待这件事？ 面对这种政治与政策交织的复杂局面， 美联储前票委、费城联邦储备银行前行长Patrick Harker在接受南方财经记者独家专访时指出，美联储的独立性是保障政策有效性和经济稳定 的关键。 他强调，任何针对美联储的外部施压都是危险的行为，可能削弱央行独立性、影响 其决策效果，甚至在全球经济层面产生连锁影响。在他看来，保持独立性不仅关乎美联储自身 的政策执行，也对美国经济及全球金融体系的稳定至关重要。 Harker还提醒，当前美国经济面临多重挑战： 通胀长期停留在3%左右，住房成本和医疗保健 支出仍居高不下，劳动市场整体呈现停滞。在这样的环境下，盲目追求短期刺激，尤其是通过 大幅降息，不仅无法解决结构性问题，反而可能埋下更大风险。 当前阶段并不合适大幅降息 《全球财经连线》： 特朗普呼吁大幅降息，如何看待这一主张？ Patrick Harker: 在当前阶段，这并不是一项合适的政策。这样做只会进一步刺激通胀，而我 们需要的是采取相反方向的措施，即推动通胀回落、加以抑制。 挑战美联储独立性是一 ...