大家好，下面是4月21号指汇盈工具策略复盘。 4月LPR报价出炉：5年期和1年期利率均维持不变。并没有降息。 符合预期，就是可能会低于部分外资预期，外资的想法就是，为了应对关税带来的影响，应该尽快下调来为经济提供支持，越早越好。 降息落空，之前因为消息上涨的房地产跟白酒普遍弱于市场。 不过择机降准降息，大概率二季度是要动手的，而且很有可能降准比降息还要快。降息的话，可以先观察7天逆回购操作利率会不会先下调，这个利率下 调了，那降息就要来了。 接下来月底还有会议，我看了一些会议前瞻，市场普遍对于这次会议比较乐观： 结合之前说的，部分会议前瞻已经预期房地产这边要更加积极，"夜壶"又再次被拎了出来。 具体到时再看。 回到行情上，今天整体不错，中证全指成交额1.03万亿，放量，重新回到万亿+的水平。 中位数涨幅1.38%，上涨家数4300多家。 市场自发性普涨，放量，这会不会是新一轮行情调整的拐点？ 做右侧的趋势信号盘后发出了新的信号，卖出债券，买入科创50ETF（588000）。 上一次是在3.25日卖出中证1000，持有债券，也算是躲过了一波调整、 这是将近一个月，趋势量化再次发出信号，提示开始持有股票资产。 1 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market rose, with the ChiNext index increasing by over 1%, and total market turnover exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1] - The macroeconomic data for the first quarter showed strong export performance, supported by the "export grabbing" effect, while retail sales and fixed asset investment showed marginal improvement [1] - Concerns remain regarding potential volatility in export data due to high tariffs imposed by the US on China, although a 90-day tariff suspension from other countries provides a buffer [1] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year remains at 3.1% and for five years or more at 3.6%, unchanged from the previous month [2] - The fiscal policy is expected to lead, with monetary policy having room to follow, indicating that a reserve requirement ratio cut may occur before interest rate cuts [2][3] Market Performance - As of April 21, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3291.43 points, up 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index rose by 1.27% and 1.59%, respectively [4] - The top-performing sectors included non-ferrous metals, computers, and beauty care, while banking, food and beverage, and real estate sectors saw declines [4] Fund Tracking - The market turnover reached 10,738.10 billion yuan, an increase from the previous trading day, while the margin financing balance decreased to 18,038.40 billion yuan [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that social financing (社融) has significantly exceeded expectations, with the loan balance year-on-year growth rate rebounding after two years, primarily supported by fiscal demand [2][11] - In March, new social financing reached 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.06 trillion yuan year-on-year, with the year-on-year growth rate rising from 8.2% to 8.4%, surpassing market expectations [2][4] - The net financing of government bonds in March reached 1.48 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 1 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating that rapid government bond issuance may lead to quicker commencement of key investment projects this year [2][4] Group 2 - M2 growth rate remained stable at 7.0%, while M1 growth rate increased from 0.1% in February to 1.6% in March, indicating relatively ample liquidity [7][11] - In March, short-term loans for enterprises increased by 460 billion yuan year-on-year, totaling 1.44 trillion yuan, while corporate loan rates remained unchanged at 3.30% [7][8] - The actual financing scale for enterprises in March remained roughly the same as last year, with net financing for the enterprise sector at 3.1 trillion yuan, indicating stability in overall financing demand [7][8] Group 3 - Fiscal deposits remain high, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.9% in March, suggesting significant potential for fiscal support in the near term [11][13] - The central bank's decision to release favorable data on a Sunday is seen as a strategy to stabilize market confidence ahead of the Monday opening [13][14] - The central bank's balance sheet relative to GDP is at a historically low level, providing potential for expansion, which could help lower risk premiums in uncertain economic conditions [13][14]

Macro Economic Overview - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery, with March CPI data indicating improvement, while manufacturing remains sluggish with a PPI decline of -2.5% [3] - Attention is on the upcoming April PMI data, which if above the threshold, could signal a positive outlook for industrial stocks [3] - The central bank is actively engaging in reverse repos, hinting at potential interest rate cuts, although caution is advised due to the Federal Reserve's stance [3] Market Sentiment - Recent trading volumes have decreased significantly, with the Shanghai market seeing daily transactions below 500 billion and Shenzhen around 300 billion [4] - Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD suggest a bearish trend, with a critical support level at 3200 points [4] Investment Opportunities - Three key sectors are highlighted for investment: - Technology sector, particularly AI, semiconductors, and new energy, with significant investments from companies like ByteDance [4] - Consumer sector, featuring established brands like Moutai and emerging trends in prepared foods, with positive indicators from recent box office data [5] - Policy-driven opportunities, including state-owned enterprise reforms and increased freight volumes from the China-Europe Railway Express [5] Operational Strategy - Recommended investment strategy includes maintaining a 50% position, gradually accumulating shares below 3200 points, and considering increasing positions if the market stabilizes above 3300 points [5]

Policy Overview - The current market's core conflict has shifted to the struggle between economic downturn and policy countermeasures, with a focus on stabilizing the stock market as a macroeconomic indicator[3] - The political bureau meeting at the end of April is expected to set the tone for new reserve policies[3] Currency Stability - The exchange rate's bottom line is expected to remain unbroken, serving as a stabilizing anchor for the market, with a critical level of 7.35 (USD/CNY) to be defended[3][4] - A depreciation of the RMB is seen as more harmful than beneficial, potentially exacerbating capital outflow risks[3] Monetary Policy Adjustments - A reduction in reserve requirements (RRR) is anticipated to occur before interest rate cuts, with structural monetary policy tools being prioritized[5] - The focus on structural monetary policy is to support low-cost funding in key consumption areas while maintaining exchange rate stability[5] Consumption Focus - Increasing service consumption is identified as a priority policy option, as traditional investment potential is diminishing[5] - Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are expected to better guide market expectations compared to traditional investment stimuli[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policies falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economic situation, fluctuations in exports, and unforeseen U.S. trade policies[5]

作者： 陶川 张云杰 钟渝梅 一方面，当前环境下人民币贬值"弊大于利"。 面对高额关税，人民币贬值对冲外贸的效果微乎其微，反而可能加剧资金外流的风险。从 近年经验来看， 7.35 （美元兑人民币）或是需要"坚守"的底线。 另一方面，人民币贬值也与我国"捍卫多边主义"的基调不符。 近年来，其他主要亚洲货币基本"锚定"人民币汇率波动。若人民币"失 守"，可能引起其他经济体的"竞争性"贬值，对稳定市场、构建反制同盟等均有不利影响。 其次，降准或快于降息，辅之于结构性货币政策利率调降。 为什么降准优先于降息？ 从 2023 年以来的历次操作来看，降准开始更多承载稳定市场的功能。尤其在 2024 年 12 月政治局会议上，首次 将"稳住楼市股市"作为经济工作的重点任务。 考虑到关税已落地、二季度政府债供给压力上行等，预计降准将先行落地以对冲市场下 跌。 如我们上篇报告《 关税风暴：政策对冲的经济账 》所述，随着关税风险的兑现， 当前市场的核心矛盾已转化为经济下行和政策对冲的角 力。 打铁还需自身硬，清明假期最后一天官媒的发声，表明决策层已经就应对冲击做好了各种预案， 我们预计 4 月底的政治局会议将给 增量的储备政策定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent tight balance of funds reflects several underlying issues, including a long-term negative growth rate in the loan-to-deposit ratio and significant demand from commercial banks for medium to long-term liabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Recent Funding Tightness - The funding rates have been high since the end of the holiday until the end of February, with rates exceeding the upper limit of the overnight reverse repurchase rate corridor [2]. - There is a persistent negative growth rate in the loan-to-deposit balance, with increasing differentiation in the deposit-raising capabilities of large and small banks [2]. - The issuance rates of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) for state-owned banks and city commercial banks have risen, leading to renewal pressures due to the narrowing interest rate spread [2]. Group 2: Central Bank's Monetary Policy - The central bank's recent "loose statement" and "steady operation" indicate a long-term "moderately loose" state, while short-term monetary tool operations require consideration of various factors [3]. - The central bank aims to maintain the "transmission efficiency" of monetary policy, with liquidity management potentially adjusting the curve shape [3]. - The central bank's medium to long-term liquidity provision is increasingly leaning towards buyout reverse repos, with a trend of shortening the duration of monetary tools [3]. Group 3: March Liquidity Outlook - The liquidity gap in March is expected to narrow significantly compared to January and February, with government debt net financing pressure easing [4]. - City commercial banks and joint-stock banks face the highest renewal pressure for certificates of deposit in the first quarter, which may keep issuance rates elevated [4]. - The central bank's liquidity provision strategy may lead to a structural "long money" gap, with a focus on the potential for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut between the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter [5].

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者民生宏观团队 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 陶川 邵翔 张云杰 钟渝梅 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 如何应对"更趋复杂严峻"外部环境的新变化？这可能是今天政府工作报告最核心的问题 ——在有效需求依旧不足的背景下，贸易和科技 领域将面临更大的冲击，这就需要政策进一步加码： 政策发力要早、要足： 报告特别强调政策要前置发力，而且"看准机会要一次性给足"。结合这几年政策的灵活性，如果不够，政策后续 可能还会加码。 具体来看，政府工作报告中有五大信号值得关注： 总量政策：面对不确定性"见招拆招"。 当关税遇上两会，面对美方频繁的加征关税，政府工作报告中的"出台实施政策要能早则早、宁早 勿晚，与各种不确定性抢时间，看准了就一次性给足"便给予了答案，这一次中国面对外部不确定性的"底气"更足、政策储备也更多。 消费："见招拆招"的一大"后手棋"。 今年政府工作报告中"消费"出现的频次明显更高了，"劳动者工资正常增长机制"、"育儿补贴"、"健 康、养老、托幼、家政等多元化服务供给"等 ...

很多时候，我们都在是不断地给自己的交易系统在做加法，在失败中反思或总结出一个投资规律，就去执行，然后又是失败，就再总结，再往系统 里加。但实际上大道至简，往往规则太多，会让阻碍你的执行，因为很多信号或规则之间是相互矛盾的。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20241227— 每逢周五传降准（+工业企业利润数据偏弱+债基继续较大规模净申购+资金面均衡偏松=小下)】 今天看到：华尔街今年最火的交易不是AI和比特币，而是阿根廷。阿根廷MERV指数年初至今涨超175%，有望在2024年成为全球表现最好的股市。经汇 率差异调整后，以美元计仍上涨了100%以上。华尔街资金是在押注总统米莱能够彻底改变长期陷入困境的经济。不知我们的资金疯狂涌入A债是在押注 什么？大抵是愈发强大的主权信用吧。 -------------------------- 【今日盘面】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅下行。 央行公开市场开展1078亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1016亿元逆回购到期。净投放62亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，跨年资金偏贵，DR007加权利率上行20BP至1.8%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 12. 27) | ...

【笔记20241224— 3万亿的特别国 债 （-路透称"明年特别国债规模3万亿"-股市上涨+资金面均衡偏松=中上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显上行。 近期30Y-10Y国债利差持续走阔，可能的原因：一是随着30Y绝对水平不断降低，保险配置动力明显减弱；二是央妈反复喊话后，省联社可能加强了对农 商行投资超长债的指导；三是924之后权益类资金对冲需求大幅下降。 今日小作文乱飞，内容真正超预期的并不多，但市场反应较大，可能是在"预期你的预期"： 1、明天是MLF续作日，如果降准了，可能会有止盈，那么我抢先一步止盈？ 2、下周就跨年了，基金年末冲量后年初可能有赎回，叠加年初银行可能止盈兑现浮盈，那么我抢先一步止盈？ -------------------------- 央行今日公开市场开展641亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.50%。今日3554亿元逆回购到期。净回笼2913亿元。 上午资金面宽松，午后略有收敛，尾盘再度转松。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 12. 24) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...