记者丨江佩佩 王应贵 见习记者张嘉钰 编辑丨刘巷 当地时间12月11日，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指涨1.34%涨超600点，标普500指数涨 0.21%， 纳指跌0.25%。 比特币涨超1%，报93005.06美元，盘中一度跌破9万美元；以太坊跌1.94%，报3259.6美元。 截至7:18， coinglass数据显示，刚刚过去的24小时内，加密货币 近14万人被 爆仓 。 宏观方面 上， 据央视新闻援引美国劳工部当地时间12月11日发布的数据，截至12月6日的一 周，美国首次申请失业救济金的人数为23.6万人，和前一周修正后首次申请失业救济金的人数 相比增加了44000人。 大型科技股多数下跌，万得美国科技七巨头指数跌0.71%，谷歌跌超2%，特斯拉、英伟达跌超 1%。 作为AI投资热潮风向标的甲骨文股价一度下跌16%，盘初市值蒸发1020亿美元，截至收盘仍 跌超10%， 市值蒸发689亿美元（约合人民币4863亿元）。此前其云业务收入不及预期，公司 还将2026年的资本支出指引大幅上调150亿美元至500亿美元。 | W | 甲骨文(ORACLE) | | --- | --- | | ORCL.N ...

专题：中央经济工作会议在北京举行 业内解读 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：雪涛宏观笔记 内生动力前低后高，政策节奏前高后低，经济正在走出新的曲线。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 回顾十四五的五年，转型是这一阶段最好的注脚。五年间，曾经作为经济发动机的地产逐渐退出舞台的 中心，三新经济（新产业、新业态、新商业模式）逐渐成长为经济新的引擎。在新旧动能转化之间，不 同行业、不同区域、不同群体之间出现转型节奏的分化，表现为宏观经济与微观体感之间的温差。 在这一过程中，与地产链绑定更大的地区，面临着更多的转型压力。比如近几年，广东GDP增速在4% 左右，显著低于江苏、山东、浙江、四川5.5%以上的增速水平，也低于全国平均增速。其中，作为"家 电之都"的佛山，2025年前三季度增速仅1.6%，在万亿GDP城市中排在末位。 但随着时间推移，地产对经济的拖累正在明显降低。2025年按照估算单纯房地产开发投资所拉动的增加 值占GDP的比重从2020年的10.2%大幅回落至2025年5.1%左右，广义房地产拉动增加值占名义GDP的比 重或从2021年的17.3%左右回落至10 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the Chinese economy during the 14th Five-Year Plan, highlighting the shift from real estate as the main economic driver to the emergence of the "three new economies" (new industries, new business formats, and new business models) as the new engine of growth [4][7]. Group 1: Economic Transformation - The real estate sector has gradually exited the central stage of the economy, with GDP growth rates in regions heavily tied to real estate, such as Guangdong, lagging behind others like Jiangsu and Zhejiang [4]. - By 2025, the contribution of real estate development investment to GDP is expected to drop significantly from 10.2% in 2020 to around 5.1% [4][30]. - The "three new economies" are projected to increase their share of China's GDP from 16% in 2020 to 18% by 2024, indicating a growing importance of high-tech manufacturing and information technology investments [7]. Group 2: Credit Market and De-leveraging - The credit market is showing a clear trend of de-leveraging from real estate, with new real estate loans decreasing by 330 billion yuan from 2023 to the first three quarters of 2025 [5]. - The shift reflects a broader economic transition where low-leverage sectors are becoming the main drivers of growth, as households work to reduce debt [5]. Group 3: Export Dynamics - Despite trade tensions, China's export share remained stable at 14.2% in the first half of 2025, with significant growth in exports to Africa and the Middle East [13][21][24]. - The automotive sector, particularly in new energy vehicles, has become a key player in boosting China's export performance, with exports projected to reach 586 million units by 2024, surpassing Germany and Japan [13]. Group 4: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market is experiencing a second downturn, with housing prices expected to revert to levels seen in 2016, and total sales area projected to decline by nearly 50% from 2020 highs [30][31]. - The overall demand for real estate is stabilizing, with indicators like the price-to-income ratio and rental yields approaching mid-term stability [30]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior and Spending - The impact of real estate on consumer spending is diminishing, as evidenced by rising retail sales growth in first-tier cities despite falling housing prices [36]. - Service consumption is expected to grow, supported by policy measures, while traditional goods consumption faces challenges due to the decline in "old-for-new" subsidies [43][44]. Group 6: Price Trends and Inflation - The article anticipates a gradual recovery in prices driven by economic recovery, with CPI expected to rise to around 0.2% in 2026, influenced by various factors including the stabilization of housing prices [45][55]. - The PPI is projected to show a "front low, back high" trend, with overall PPI expected to be around -1.3% for the year [55].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut has led to a reassessment of the interest rate path, with a focus on upcoming macroeconomic data, while the market shows little pricing for further rate hikes but has mixed expectations for additional easing [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Powell emphasized that the policy rate is now in a neutral range, and future adjustments will depend on data [1][4]. - There is a notable division within the FOMC, with one-quarter of voting members dissenting against the rate cut, highlighting a rare tension between inflation concerns and signs of a cooling labor market [1][4]. - The committee's predictions range from maintaining rates to varying degrees of further cuts, with no consensus on rate hikes as a baseline scenario [2][5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The SEP forecasts for growth in 2026 are higher than those for 2025, attributed to fiscal impacts, ongoing AI investment, and sustained consumer momentum [1][4]. - Powell noted that the labor market has shown signs of cooling, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.3 percentage points since summer, and inflation has slightly eased, particularly in services [2][5]. - Structural issues in the housing market, such as long-term supply shortages and high relocation costs due to low mortgage rates locked in during the pandemic, will not be significantly improved by the recent rate cut [2][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Gold prices surged during the press conference, rising above $4,238 per ounce, reflecting market sensitivity to the prospect of looser monetary policy and increased demand for safe-haven assets [3][6]. - The meeting underscored the Fed's challenges in balancing growth, inflation, and employment, with future market movements likely to depend heavily on data and subtle policy signals [3][6].

今日（12月11日），受美联储降息刺激，港股市场早盘一度高开。然而，后续发展不尽如人意，最终反弹告吹，各类指数小幅回落。 截至收盘，恒生指数报收于25530.51点，下跌10.27点，跌幅0.04%。从成交量看，港股今日全天仅成交1825亿港元，再次出现缩量。 恒生科技指数收报5534.59点，下跌46.51点，跌幅0.83%。 焦点公司方面，中兴通讯（HK00763）突发大跌，截至收盘，股价跌超13%。同时，中兴通讯A股（SZ000063）也以跌停报收。 资金方面，截至收盘，南向资金累计净买入港股超7亿港元。 后市展望： 招商国际认为，在美联储降息、AI投资等因素支持下，预计美国经济明年保持温和增长，维持对美股的战略性看多，但需关注结构性分化和一季度短期风 险。针对明年港股市场展望，该行表示，港股将从估值修复主导，迈向盈利增长主导。估值扩张可能减弱，但流动性宽松，不会形成拖累。2026年呈现盈利 驱动与流动性托底相结合的格局，通过"新供给创造新需求"，成为港股市场新动力。 招商国际还指出，新经济支撑港股走向基本面驱动；内外部政策环境向好；外资和南向资金的新供给增加，转化为对港股配置的新需求。基于股东权益回报 ...

Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% as expected[2] - The median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2026 is a further reduction to 3.4% and to 3.1% by the end of 2027[2] Economic Projections - The SEP forecast for 2026 GDP growth was raised from 1.8% to 2.3%, reflecting optimism due to reduced inflation and increased technology investments[2] - Core PCE inflation estimates for 2025 and 2026 were revised down by 0.1 percentage points to 3.0% and 2.5%, respectively[2] Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, U.S. Treasury yields fell, stock markets rose, and gold prices increased, indicating stronger expectations for future monetary easing[2] - The market is pricing in a 22.1% probability of a rate cut in January 2026[8] Key Points of Dovish Outlook - The announcement of a $40 billion purchase of Treasury securities over the next 30 days and the removal of the SRF operation limit were unexpected[2] - The voting split among FOMC members was 9:3, indicating less division than anticipated, which is crucial for effective policy management[2] Employment and Inflation Insights - Powell indicated that non-farm payrolls may see an average monthly decline of 20,000, suggesting a cautious outlook on employment[3] - The Fed's current policy prioritizes employment over inflation, with expectations of a stable economic growth trajectory into 2026[3]

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on December 11, 2025, marking the most divided vote since 2019, with three dissenters[4] - The dot plot indicates a hawkish stance, with only one expected rate cut in 2026 and a distribution showing three members predicting a rate hike[4] Economic Forecasts - The Fed upgraded its economic outlook while lowering inflation expectations, predicting a soft landing for the economy in 2026[4] - Unemployment rate forecasts were also revised downwards, indicating a more optimistic view on labor market conditions[4] Liquidity and Market Strategy - The end of quantitative tightening (QT) was confirmed, with the Fed initiating a reserve management program (RMP) to purchase $40 billion in short-term debt monthly[6] - The report suggests focusing on technology themes in U.S. equities, particularly in sectors like space, quantum, nuclear energy, and autonomous driving[6] Investment Recommendations - U.S. equities are expected to benefit from a stable economy and new liquidity points, while U.S. Treasury bonds are anticipated to remain volatile at high levels[6] - The dollar is projected to maintain a downward trend due to pressures from yen interventions and euro appreciation[7] Risk Factors - Potential risks include abrupt changes in overseas monetary policy, slower-than-expected AI investment progress, and economic downturns exceeding forecasts[8]

凤凰网财经讯 12月11日，三大指数集体高开，沪指高开0.09%，深成指高开0.13%，创业板指高开 0.05%，贵金属、海南、能源金属等板块指数涨幅居前。 | | | | | 沪深京重要指数 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 *● | 咸新 | 涨幅% | | 涨跌 涨跌家数 | 涨速% | 息手 | 现手 | 金额 | | 上证指数 | 3903.89 | 0.09 | 3.39 | 1107/740 | -0.02 | 5847 | 584万 | 69.36 亿 | | 深证成指 | 13333.29 | 0.13 | 16.87 | 1447/895 | 0.03 | 8247 | | 824万 106.35亿 | | 北证50 | 1393.32 | 0.25 | 3.52 | 151/74 | 0.24 | 6.62万 | 6.62万 | 8498万 | | 创业板指 | 3210.55 | 0.05 | 1.55 | 704/468 | 0.05 | 156 7 | 156万 | 39.9 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 国金证券指出，AI投资确属泡沫，但对美国而言存在其合理性。AI产业链"铁索连环"的脆弱性日益凸 显，关注信息披露不足和资本开支的脆弱性。高杠杆与表外融资放大风险，私募信贷的不透明度和表外 负债隐性担保等融资模式值得关注。2026年美国中期选举带来的流动性不确定性是泡沫的关键外部风 险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations [1][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve will begin expanding its balance sheet by purchasing $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds, with the purchase scale expected to remain high for several months before significantly reducing [1]. - The decision to cut rates was passed with a 9-3 voting ratio, indicating increasing divisions among committee members [1]. - The median expectation from the "dot plot" suggests a further rate cut of 25 basis points in 2026, consistent with previous forecasts [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement, the U.S. dollar weakened, while U.S. stocks and commodities strengthened, and U.S. Treasury yields declined [2]. - The Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indices showed positive movements, with the Dow increasing by 497.46 points (+1.05%) and the S&P 500 rising by 46.17 points (+0.67%) [2]. Group 3: Future Rate Cut Predictions - Multiple international investment banks predict that the Federal Reserve will cut rates 2-3 times in 2026, with terminal rates expected around 3.00%-3.25% [9]. - Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Deutsche Bank each forecast two rate cuts in 2026, while Nomura Securities anticipates three cuts [9]. - Analysts attribute the likelihood of further rate cuts to leadership changes rather than economic interpretations, suggesting a shift towards a more dovish Federal Reserve [11].