据中国人民银行网站消息，5月8日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1586亿元逆回购操作， 下调政策利率0.1个百分点，即公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率从目前的1.5%调降至1.4%。因当日无逆回 购到期，因此实现净投放1586亿元。同日，根据《中国人民银行关于下调个人住房公积金贷款利率的通 知》，下调个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点。 专家表示，此次降息，不仅有利于提振市场情绪，还有利于保持商业银行净息差稳定，同时通过利率传 导，有效降低实体经济综合融资成本，巩固经济基本面。下调个人住房公积金贷款利率，将更好满足住 房消费需求，支持房地产市场持续健康发展。 "当前，我国实际利率仍然偏高。LPR的下行将带动实际利率回落，实体部门融资成本下降可改善投 资、消费情绪，支持经济发展。"浙商证券首席经济学家李超说，降低公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率的 目的之一是引导LPR下行，降低实体部门融资成本，强化金融对经济的支持力度。 考虑到为后续的不确定性留足政策空间，人民银行还明确提出，"将通过利率自律机制引导商业银行相 应下调存款利率"。 潘功胜表示，下一步，人民银行将继续认真贯彻党中央、国务院的各项部署，实施好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in housing loan interest rates, particularly the public housing fund loan rate, is expected to stimulate the housing market and encourage first-time homebuyers to enter the market [1][3][6]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The central bank announced a reduction in the personal housing provident fund loan rate by 0.25 percentage points, bringing the rate for first-time homebuyers over five years down to 2.6% [2][3]. - Major cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou have followed suit, implementing the new lower rates to support homebuyers [3][4]. Group 2: Impact on Loan Costs - For a property priced at 3 million, the interest rate for first-time homebuyers has decreased from 5.74% in 2021 to 3.01%, resulting in a total interest reduction of approximately 50% and a nearly 30% decrease in monthly payments [1][9]. - The average interest rate for new commercial housing loans is projected to drop to around 3.01% following the recent adjustments, which will further alleviate the financial burden on borrowers [7][9]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The declining interest rates are positively influencing buyer confidence, with many perceiving it as an opportune time to purchase homes [10]. - Despite the favorable loan conditions, buyers are adopting a more rational approach, weighing their financial capabilities against potential future price movements in the housing market [10].

Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.50% to 1.40% effective May 8, which is expected to lead to a decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by approximately 0.1% [1][2] - The reduction in policy rates is anticipated to lower various loan types, including mortgage rates, benefiting consumers and potentially stabilizing the real estate market [1][3] Group 2: Housing Loan Rates - Following the interest rate cuts, the personal housing mortgage rates are expected to decline, particularly if the 5-year LPR decreases [2][3] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued commercial personal housing loans was reported at 3.11% in Q1 2025, with a further reduction in housing provident fund loan rates to 2.6% for first-time homebuyers [3] Group 3: Deposit Rates - The decline in loan rates is likely to be accompanied by a decrease in deposit rates, as banks seek to manage their net interest margins amid pressure [4][5] - Analysts predict that deposit rates may decrease by approximately 0.1%, with smaller banks already adjusting their rates downward [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity in the market remained stable and loose in April, but pressure is expected to increase in May due to accelerated government bond issuance and the maturity of MLF and reverse repos [1][4]. Group 1: Liquidity Trends - In April, the central bank maintained stable open market operations, with a total of 1.2 trillion yuan in reverse repos and a net injection of MLF for the second consecutive month, indicating a stable and loose liquidity environment [2][4]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a significant reverse repo operation on April 30, with a net injection of 422.8 billion yuan for the 7-day reverse repo [2]. - The total amount of reverse repos conducted in April was 1.2 trillion yuan, including 700 billion yuan for 3-month and 500 billion yuan for 6-month reverse repos [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - Overall, funding rates in April were low, with fluctuations due to government bond issuance and the "May Day" holiday, but remained at low levels [5]. - The 1-year and 5-year LPR remained unchanged at 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively, for six consecutive months, reflecting market expectations [7]. - The average monthly rate for DR007 in April was 1.73%, down 15 basis points from March, indicating a narrowing spread with the 7-day reverse repo rate [9]. Group 3: Outlook for Liquidity - In May, government bond supply is expected to be the largest influencing factor on liquidity, with an estimated issuance of approximately 1.34 trillion yuan in national bonds and 840 billion yuan in local bonds, totaling about 2.18 trillion yuan [10]. - The central bank's recent monetary policy measures, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in reserve requirements, are expected to provide long-term liquidity support exceeding 1 trillion yuan [11]. - The current liquidity issues are primarily structural, and the central bank is expected to continue daily operations to maintain liquidity, focusing on increasing medium to long-term liquidity supply [11].

题图来自：AI生成 5月7日上午9点，国新办举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券管理委员 会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，以降准降息为主。 降准降息相关主要内容有： 先看与普通人关系最密切的公积金降息政策，这次通过降息，减少了此前公积金贷款和商贷方面利差的 问题，确保了公积金政策的实际有效性，同时进一步降低了房贷成本。 以100万贷款本金、30年期、等额本息的首套房公积金贷款为例，政策当前月供为4136元，政策后为 4003元，减少了133元。总还款总额（本金+利息）从过去的149万变为144万，减少了约5万元成本。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进向知危表示，从过去的金融政策操作惯例来看，此次政策主要是指 新购房的公积金贷款利率。根据政策规定，此前已经发放的公积金贷款，在明年元旦后将进行下调。 LPR下调0.1个百分点，也就是下调10个基点的概念，严跃进认为这意味着降息通道即将开启，今年二 季度将计入到降息和资金成本进一步放宽的空间。对于促进LPR进一步下调以及有关的贷款利率下调等 都有较为积极的作用。 整体来看，降息对于购房房贷的影响是积极的。央行数据显示， ...

Group 1 - The central bank continues to inject liquidity into the market, with a significant increase in reverse repos, indicating a proactive approach to maintain market liquidity and support economic growth [1][2] - The central bank's recent operations, including a net injection of 645.8 billion yuan through reverse repos over three days, reflect a response to tightening liquidity conditions due to month-end bank assessments and increased cash withdrawal demands ahead of the holiday [1][2] - The issuance of long-term special government bonds is expected to increase liquidity demand, with 1.3 trillion yuan in special bonds planned for this year, highlighting the need for the central bank's liquidity support [2][3] Group 2 - Market interest rates, such as Shibor, show mixed movements, with some rates declining, indicating the impact of the central bank's liquidity measures [3] - The outlook for post-holiday liquidity is expected to remain loose, with the central bank likely to implement net withdrawals after large reverse repos mature, maintaining stable market rates [3][4] - There is a potential for further reductions in policy and deposit rates, with expectations for a possible 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut in the second quarter, which would enhance liquidity and lower financing costs [4]

研究院 新能源&有色组 021-60827969 fengfan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03036024 投资咨询号：Z0014660 联系人 研究员 王育武 021-60827969 wangyuwu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114162 陈思捷 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 021-60827968 期货研究报告|铜周报 2025-04-27 师橙 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 市场存在挺价情绪 铜价预计震荡偏强 市场要闻与重要数据 矿端方面，据 Mysteel 讯，4 月 25 日当周，本周国内矿现货交易氛围保持平稳，市场延 续供需偏紧态势。尽管现货加工费出现显著下滑（可能受 Antamina 矿区生产事故引发 的供应担忧情绪升温影响），但作价比例波动相对有限，主流议价区间仍维持在 92-95% 水平，卖方在价格谈判中持续掌握主动权，作价体系保持高位震荡。周内现货 TC 价格 继续下降至-42.52 美元/吨。 冶炼及进口方面，4 月 25 日当周，市场国产资源 ...

国际新闻： 1. 关税-①据悉与特朗普将与零售公司会面讨论关税影响 ②消息人士：原定4月23日的泰国-美国贸易谈 判将不再举行 ③万斯会见莫迪，印度寻求特朗普关税减免 ④印度对部分钢铁产品征收12%的关税，为 期200天 ⑤美国拟对从柬埔寨、泰国、马来西亚、越南四国进口的太阳能产品加征新关税 ⑥美国贸易代 表办公室：与印度为互惠贸易谈判敲定了路线图。 12. 隔夜行情-现货黄金日内拉升逾100美元，历史高点至3430，原油结算价跌2.5%、美元跌超1%，一度 跌破98关口、美股三大股指均跌超2%、美债30Y、10Y均涨约9BP。 金十数据整理：昨日今晨重要新闻汇总（4月22日） 国内新闻： 9. 上交所召开私募机构座谈会，与会机构认为，当前中国资产估值处于相对较低水平，将坚定持有中国 优质资产。 1. 中共中央、国务院印发《关于实施自由贸易试验区提升战略的意见》。 2. 央行等部门：探索上海黄金交易所特定品种交割国际化，设置境外交收库。 3. 4月共118款国产网游、9款进口网游获批。 4. 京东与美团外卖大战升级，先后发文抨击对方。 5. 国务院国资委：推动央企强化资金统筹，确保及时付款。 6. 中保协：当 ...

截至目前（4月21日），LPR已经连续6个月"原地踏步"。展望后期，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青预 计，综合当前外部经贸环境变化，国内房地产市场和物价走势，二季度"择机降准降息"时机或已成熟。 短期政策利率可能调降30个基点，降幅与去年全年相当，进而带动LPR报价下行，引导企业和居民贷款 利率下调，较大幅度降低实体经济融资成本。这是当前促消费、扩投资，大力提振内需，对冲潜在外需 放缓，切实增强宏观经济韧性的有效措施之一。（证券日报） ...

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market rose, with the ChiNext index increasing by over 1%, and total market turnover exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1] - The macroeconomic data for the first quarter showed strong export performance, supported by the "export grabbing" effect, while retail sales and fixed asset investment showed marginal improvement [1] - Concerns remain regarding potential volatility in export data due to high tariffs imposed by the US on China, although a 90-day tariff suspension from other countries provides a buffer [1] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for one year remains at 3.1% and for five years or more at 3.6%, unchanged from the previous month [2] - The fiscal policy is expected to lead, with monetary policy having room to follow, indicating that a reserve requirement ratio cut may occur before interest rate cuts [2][3] Market Performance - As of April 21, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3291.43 points, up 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index rose by 1.27% and 1.59%, respectively [4] - The top-performing sectors included non-ferrous metals, computers, and beauty care, while banking, food and beverage, and real estate sectors saw declines [4] Fund Tracking - The market turnover reached 10,738.10 billion yuan, an increase from the previous trading day, while the margin financing balance decreased to 18,038.40 billion yuan [5]