印度准备应对美国20%至25%的关税。印度预计到9月或10月与美国达成协议。 ...

IMF首席经济学家古兰沙：这些协议中商定的关税与IMF假设下美国实际关税率相似。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment stance on the consumer sector, particularly highlighting concerns over inflation and the impact of tariffs on low-priced consumer goods and durable imports [4]. Core Insights - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. rebounded to 61.8 in July, indicating a slight recovery in consumer sentiment, although it remains significantly lower than historical averages [6][9]. - Retail sales data for June showed a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, reaching $720.11 billion, driven by pre-tariff purchasing behavior [6][9]. - Inflationary pressures are evident, with the June CPI rising to 2.7%, primarily due to increased energy prices and the initial effects of tariffs on imported goods [9][12]. - Employment data showed a strong increase in non-farm payrolls, with 147,000 jobs added in June, although the growth was largely driven by government sectors, while the private sector showed signs of weakness [14][16]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Consumer confidence index increased to 61.8 in July, reflecting a two-month rebound [6]. - Retail sales for June reached $720.11 billion, up 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [6][9]. - Inflation rose to 2.7% in June, with energy prices being a significant contributor [9]. - Non-farm payrolls added 147,000 jobs in June, with a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% [14]. Essential Consumption - Beverage sales showed robust growth, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in May, while tobacco sales slowed down [2][28]. - Alcohol sales in May were $6.31 billion, reflecting a modest growth of 0.8% year-on-year, but overall sales volume continues to decline [2][24]. - Dairy product shipments totaled $13.49 billion in May, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [28]. Optional Consumption - Restaurant sales in June reached $98.74 billion, up 6.6% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer spending in this segment [3][32]. - Department store sales were $77.25 billion in June, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [3][34]. - Clothing retail sales in June were $26.34 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [3][36]. Market Performance - The optional consumption sector outperformed, with a 5.6% increase, while essential consumption saw a decline of 1.5% [4]. - The consumer sector remains under pressure from high valuations and inflationary concerns, particularly affecting low-priced consumer goods [4]. Employment and Credit - The labor market showed mixed signals, with strong overall job growth but significant weakness in the private sector [14][16]. - Consumer credit saw a sharp decline in May, with a 70% drop in growth compared to April, indicating a potential slowdown in consumer spending [20]. PMI and Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June was 49.0, indicating continued contraction, while the services PMI returned to expansion at 50.8 [22][23].

Core Insights - Procter & Gamble (P&G) is experiencing a noticeable decline in consumer spending, indicating economic pressure on various income groups [1][2] - The company's net sales for Q4 increased by 2% to $20.9 billion, slightly above market expectations, with earnings per share rising by 17% to $1.48, largely due to a significant restructuring charge [1] - P&G forecasts sales growth for FY2026 to be between 1% and 5%, with earnings per share growth projected at 3% to 9% [1] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are depleting inventories, postponing non-essential purchases, and reducing store visits to avoid buying unnecessary items [1] - Both low-income and high-income consumers are seeking value, but they face different economic constraints [2] Market Conditions - Demand in the U.S. and Western Europe is slowing due to unstable macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical issues, and changing consumer dynamics [2] - P&G anticipates a $1 billion increase in annual costs due to tariffs, a revision from the previous estimate of $1 billion to $1.5 billion [1] Leadership Changes - CEO Jon Moeller will transition to Executive Chairman in January, with COO Shailesh Jejurikar taking over as CEO [2] - Under Moeller's leadership, P&G navigated post-pandemic sales surges and rising costs, with the company's stock price increasing approximately 13% during his tenure [2] Pricing Strategy - Starting this month, P&G will raise prices on about a quarter of its products in the U.S. to offset costs from new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [2]

| Millio | >国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月29日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属窄幅波动。近期地缘风险相对平稳,关税谈判有序推进,中美经贸会谈在瑞典斯德哥尔摩开始举 行,避险需求回落压制黄金表现,预计短期贵金属维持震荡走势。本周重点聚焦美联储会议和美国非农就业 等一系列重要数据发布。今晚关注美国6月JOLTs职位空缺数。 ★关税 -- 1孟加拉国欲购波音飞机,争取美国降低关税。②韩国提出"让美国造船业再次伟大",力争尽 快达成关税协议。韩国总统办公室表示，美国贸易谈判包括增加国防开支和购买美国武器。③美欧仍在就葡 萄酒和烈酒的关税豁免进行讨论。④特朗普：我们将在近期宣布对药品征收关税；全球关税将在15-20%左 右。⑤加拿大 ...

巴西财长Haddad：关税可以实施，之后也可以撤销。 ...

阿斯利康首席执行官：美国政府未承诺该公司可避免关税。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in July, with a consensus among institutions that a rate cut is not expected. However, if the Fed surprises the market with a rate cut, it could lead to significant volatility in gold prices, presenting a potential investment opportunity [3][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is influenced by tariffs and inflation, with a notable increase in average tariff rates to 20%-30% expected in 2025, which is contributing to inflationary pressures [3]. - The likelihood of a rate cut in September has risen to over 70%, but officials have indicated that any decision will depend on the impact of tariffs on inflation [4][5]. Group 2: Global Monetary Policy Divergence - There is a divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and other regions, with the European Central Bank having cut rates seven times and other central banks like the Bank of England and those in Canada and New Zealand also implementing significant rate cuts [5]. - This divergence is contributing to a weakening U.S. dollar, which is supporting gold prices above 3300 [5]. Group 3: Gold Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to monitor the upcoming Fed meeting closely, as it could provide critical insights into future monetary policy and potential gold investment strategies [6].

7月29日（周二），伦敦和上海期铜双双下滑，因交易商权衡中美谈判以及世界第一大铜生产国智利与 美国就8月1日起对铜征收50%关税的谈判。 智利财政部长Mario Marcel周一在采访中称， 智利预计铜关税问题将在华盛顿举行的更广泛的美智贸易 谈判中进行讨论。 他补充说，智利将要求将这些关税纳入与美国的更广泛的贸易协定之中。 秘鲁总统Dina Boluarte表示，秘鲁正在评估134个矿业勘探和开采项目的授权，这些项目预计投资规模 达60亿美元。秘鲁政府希望提高这一关键产业的收入。 Boluarte在国会发表讲话时表示，她预计到今年年底，正规小规模采矿业的年销售额将超过50亿美元， 到2026年，47亿美元的正规项目应该已经开工建设。 其他基本金属方面，沪铝主力合约下跌0.22%，报收于20,605元；沪锌主力合约下跌0.35%，报收于 22,655元；沪锡主力合约下滑0.76%，报收于266,660元；沪镍主力合约跌0.85%，报收于121,800元；沪 铅主力合约收跌0.24%，至每吨16,900元。 北京时间16:26，伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期铜下滑0.16%，报每吨9,777美元。 上海期货交 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly, demand will not change significantly, and with anti - involution speculation, lead prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,017.5 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars [3] - The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 35 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest was 96,376 lots, down 5,605 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 2,614 lots, up 825 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 60,932 tons, up 973 tons [3] - The SHFE inventory was 63,254 tons, up 919 tons; the LME lead inventory was 263,650 tons, down 2,625 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,775 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,970 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [3] - The basis of the lead main contract was - 125 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 27.31 dollars/ton, down 3.89 dollars [3] - The price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan was 16,179 yuan, up 83 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) was 16,760 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 73.81%, up 2.97 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.35 million tons, up 0.03 million tons [3] - The processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports was - 60 dollars/kiloton, down 10 dollars; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16.4 thousand tons, up 48.8 thousand tons [3] - The global lead mine output was 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons; the lead ore import volume was 11.97 million tons, up 2.48 million tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries was 10,182.14 yuan/ton, up 23.21 yuan [3] - The export volume of batteries was 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy was 19,975 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells was 1,771.66 points, up 11.26 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 0.1666 million vehicles [3] - The monthly new energy vehicle output was 1.647 million vehicles, up 0.073 million vehicles [3] 3.6 Industry News - Trump believes the Fed must cut interest rates this week [3] - Bangladesh wants to buy Boeing planes and hopes the US will lower tariffs; South Korea aims to reach a tariff agreement with the US; the US and the EU are discussing tariff exemptions for wine and spirits; Trump plans to impose tariffs on drugs; Canada - US trade negotiations are tense; Chile expects copper tariff exemptions [3] - Trump is disappointed with Putin and is considering giving Russia less than two weeks to reach a cease - fire agreement [3] 3.7 View Summary - Primary lead production has declined due to falling lead prices, and secondary lead supply is tight due to scarce raw materials and slow resumption of production [3] - The lead battery industry is approaching the peak season, but actual demand is weak, and inventory is rising, indicating slow demand [3] - Shanghai lead supply is expected to decline slightly, demand will remain stable, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [3]