智通财经APP获悉，美元汇率出现自 5 月初以来最大涨幅，有望实现今年的首次月度上涨。与此同时， 美国与欧盟达成的贸易协议再度引发了人们对关税对全球经济增长影响的担忧。周一，彭博美元现货指 数较主要同类指数上涨了 0.8%。尽管与年初相比仍大幅下跌，但7月迄今，该美元指数已上涨了 1.5%。 彭博宏观策略师指出："欧洲央行原本预计贸易摩擦会较为温和，但最终达成的协议却包含了更高的关 税以及更为严重的后果。这一误判如今正对美元造成重大影响。" 此举有助于缓解有关贸易的诸多担忧。美国和中国官员结束了为期两天的首轮会谈，此次会谈旨在将双 方的关税休战协议延长至 8 月中旬之后。 美国与欧盟于周末宣布达成15%税率关税协议，使得美元相对于 G10 组别中的所有货币汇率均有所上 升，其中欧元跌幅最大。因为投资者纷纷将美元视为避险货币，同时也在权衡关税对欧洲及全球经济增 长的影响。 富国银行的策略师Aroop Chatterjee说道："这表明，鉴于这些不对称的'协议'，实际的关税措施将对世 界其他地区的经济增长产生负面影响。" 该协议使得欧盟的出口商品所面临的关税水平远高于欧盟对美国进口商品征收的关税水平。欧盟委员会 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail trade industry [1] Core Insights - The gold jewelry industry is experiencing a shift towards younger consumers and a trend towards "Guochao" (national trend) aesthetics, with rising demand for traditional craftsmanship and small-weight gold products [4][5] - The price of gold is expected to maintain an upward trend due to geopolitical factors and increased demand for safe-haven assets, with COMEX gold prices stabilizing between $3,300 and $3,500 per ounce [4] - The retail sales of gold and silver jewelry in China reached CNY 194.8 billion in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.3% [20] Summary by Sections Section 1: Gold Price Trends - The gold jewelry industry index is experiencing a synchronized rise, driven by increasing gold prices and product upgrades [20] Section 2: Gold Jewelry Industry - The retail sales of gold jewelry are growing faster than the overall retail market, with a notable increase in demand driven by rising gold prices and seasonal consumption peaks [20][21] - The gold jewelry market is projected to reach CNY 5,688 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.6% from 2019 to 2024 [26] Section 3: Industry Chain Analysis - The gold jewelry industry value chain includes upstream mining, midstream design and manufacturing, and downstream retail, with a focus on brand value creation [65] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a concentration of market share among leading brands, with the top five companies holding a significant portion of the market [76] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Laopuhuangjin, Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang, Chao Hong Ji, and Cai Bai Co., Ltd. [6]

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is around $3338.36 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.06% [1] - Last week, international gold prices experienced fluctuations due to a weaker dollar, trade tensions, and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, ultimately closing down nearly 0.35% [1] - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce announced that the tariff extension will not be prolonged beyond August 1, and President Trump stated that a 15% tariff agreement with the EU has been reached, which is expected to reduce safe-haven demand for gold [1][2] Group 2 - The recent stabilization of the U.S. dollar index has not led to a breakthrough of previous high points, maintaining pressure on gold prices [2] - The market is currently focused on U.S. tariff negotiations, with lower uncertainty compared to April, which has prevented gold prices from breaking upward [2][4] - The U.S. labor market data has shown unexpected improvement, contributing to a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, which exert significant downward pressure on gold prices [1][2] Group 3 - The gold ETF (159937) saw a decline of 0.28% with a trading volume of 2.91 billion yuan [3] - The gold market is expected to remain in a volatile range, with attention on geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policies, and liquidity shocks that could trigger gold price corrections [4] - Long-term investment in gold ETFs is suggested due to their ability to hedge against tail risks and their stable performance across economic cycles [5]

市场将关注7月的JOLTS职位空缺和美国消费者信心指数。交易者将收到ADP就业数据、第二季度美国 初步GDP和待售房屋销售数据。当天还将有加拿大银行、美联储利率决议和日本银行的货币政策决定。 周四将公布7月的最新PCE通胀数据和每周初请失业金数据，周五以7月非农就业数据和ISM制造业PMI 结束本周。未来一周金价将"延续震荡偏弱走势，因市场风险偏好回升"。市场参与者正屏息以待美联储 政策信号，这场货币政策与避险需求的博弈将决定黄金下一步走向。 周一（7月28日）亚市早盘，现货黄金探底回升，盘初一度延续上周五跌势至3320关口附近，因美国和 欧洲达成贸易协议，令黄金避险需求进一步下降，但金价受到逢低买盘支撑，很快收复大部分跌幅，目 前交投于3335美元/盎司附近。因美元走强、美欧贸易协议的乐观情绪的压制，上周五金价收跌近1%， 为连续三个交易日下跌，收报3336.49美元/盎司。 与此同时，全球央行购金的趋势为黄金提供了坚实的底部支撑。许多国家正通过增持黄金来减少对美元 的依赖，这一趋势将在未来持续推动金价上行。中国央行增持黄金的传闻尤其引人关注，尽管具体数据 尚未公开，但市场普遍预期中国等新兴市场国家将继续加 ...

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals (AU, AG): Safe-Haven Demand Cools, Pressuring Gold and Silver [1] Report Date - July 28, 2025 [2] Report Author - Bai Suna [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With Trump announcing trade agreements with more countries, global trade tensions ease, reducing safe-haven demand and pressuring precious metal prices. Monitor the progress of US-EU negotiations and China-US-Sweden economic and trade talks, and beware of tariff policy fluctuations as the August 1 tariff suspension period ends [5] - The ECB kept interest rates unchanged in July and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, indicating the end of the ECB's easing cycle. The Fed is also likely to keep rates unchanged in July, temporarily suppressing precious metal prices. Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut rates continues, but the dollar credit risk is alleviated, weakening gold's short-term upward drive. However, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is over 60%, providing medium-term support for gold prices. Focus on key US economic data this week [5] - In the first half of the week, the commodity trading limit-up atmosphere boosted Shanghai silver to break through the 9,500 yuan/kg mark. But as gold weakened and commodities tumbled on Friday night, silver prices were dragged down. As the irrational commodity rally subsides, silver's short-term resilience may weaken, and it is expected to return to fundamental logic in the medium term [5] - Strategy: Buy gold on dips; stay on the sidelines for silver [5] - Long-term view: Bullish. With the Fed likely to cut rates in the second half of the year, global geopolitical tensions remaining complex, de-globalization intensifying, and the weakening of the US dollar credit, central banks will continue to be net buyers of gold, providing long-term support for gold prices [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking Gold and Silver Prices and Gold-Silver Ratio - London spot gold was at $3,336.22/oz, down $13.435 (-0.40%) from the previous week; Shanghai gold futures were at 777.32 yuan/g, up 0.3 yuan (0.04%) [4] - London spot silver was at $38.137/oz, down $0.01 (-0.03%) from the previous week; Shanghai silver futures were at 9,392 yuan/kg, up 119 yuan (1.28%) [4] - SHFE gold-silver ratio was 82.76, down 1.03 (-1.23%) from the previous week [4] ETF and CFTC Positions - Gold SPDR-ETF holdings were 957.09 tons, up 13.47 tons (1.43%) from the previous week [4] - COMEX gold non-commercial net long positions (lagging one week) were 253,038 contracts, up 39,923 contracts (18.73%) from the previous week [4] - Silver SLV-ETF holdings were 15,230 tons, up 572 tons (3.90%) from the previous week [4] - COMEX silver non-commercial net long positions (lagging one week) were 60,620 contracts, up 1,172 contracts (1.97%) from the previous week [4] Inventory Data - SHFE gold inventory was 30.258 tons, up 1.4 tons (4.85%) from the previous week; COMEX gold inventory was 1,174.54 tons, up 17.74 tons (1.53%) from the previous week [4] - SHFE silver inventory was 1,187 tons, down 23.82 tons (-1.97%) from the previous week; COMEX silver inventory was 15,562 tons, up 95.7 tons (0.62%) from the previous week; SGE silver inventory (lagging one week) was 1,312 tons, down 15.21 tons (-1.15%) from the previous week [4] 2. Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index was 97.6701, down 0.7899 (-0.80%) from the previous week; the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1681, down 0.0129 (-0.18%) from the previous week [4] - The 2-year US Treasury yield was 3.9275%, up 0.0647 (1.67%) from the previous week; the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.3878%, down 0.0217 (-0.49%) from the previous week; the US 10-year real interest rate was 1.96%, down 0.07 (-3.45%) from the previous week [4] Economic Data - The US first-quarter GDP growth rate unexpectedly contracted; the consumer confidence index improved for the first time in half a year [59] - The US manufacturing PMI and service PMI were better than expected; the US retail sales data showed positive trends [60] - The US June non-farm payrolls were higher than expected, and the unemployment rate declined [66] - Inflation in the US rebounded slightly, but inflation expectations cooled [73] - The eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded; the eurozone manufacturing PMI rebounded, while the service PMI declined [82] Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, with 73.9 million ounces at the end of June, a month-on-month increase of 700,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) [91] - Global central banks remained net buyers of gold. In the first quarter of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net-purchased 243.7 tons of gold, a year-on-year decrease of about 21.4%. Despite the decline in the first quarter, the overall performance remained strong, and global central banks were expected to continue net-purchasing gold [91]

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, precious metal prices experienced a strong upward trend followed by high-level fluctuations, influenced by macroeconomic policy changes [1] - The price of gold was re-evaluated as a core safe-haven and anti-inflation asset, recovering quickly after a brief decline due to the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy in April [1] - The gold-silver ratio initially rose and then fell, peaking above 100 due to heightened inflation concerns and uncertainty in global economic prospects, before correcting as market sentiment improved [1] Group 2 - In the second half of the year, expectations of a weak U.S. economy and a clearer outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts, along with a declining dollar index, create a favorable macro environment for precious metal prices [2] - Gold is expected to benefit from ongoing uncertainties related to trade tensions, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical factors, which will enhance its safe-haven appeal [2] - Geopolitical risks remain elevated, with ongoing conflicts and instability in various regions, contributing to sustained demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 3 - In 2025, silver is projected to maintain a supply-demand gap of 4,000 tons, but high inventory levels may limit its commodity attributes [3] - The supply growth of silver is expected to slow to 2% year-on-year due to high base effects and reduced new silver mining projects, while industrial demand is forecasted to decline by approximately 1% [3] - The precious metals market is anticipated to have upward potential in the second half of 2025, with gold prices expected to range between $3,200 and $3,600 per ounce, while silver prices are projected to range between $32 and $38 per ounce [3]

Group 1 - The gold market experienced significant volatility this week, with prices ultimately closing lower after failing to stabilize above $3,400 per ounce following a bullish breakout. This reflects recent hesitation among gold bulls [1] - In the first two trading days of the week, spot gold prices surged by 2.4%, but the subsequent three days saw a cumulative decline of nearly 3%. This decline was primarily driven by positive developments in Trump’s trade negotiations, which boosted market risk appetite and diminished gold's safe-haven demand [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to next week, the Federal Reserve is set to announce its monetary policy decision after the July 29-30 meeting. The market perceives a negligible chance of a rate cut in July, with a 40% likelihood of maintaining rates in September, an increase from about 10% a month ago [3] - If Powell opens the door for a September rate cut citing reduced uncertainty from recent trade agreements, U.S. Treasury yields may drop, potentially allowing gold prices to rise. Conversely, if he avoids committing to a rate cut due to rising inflation data, gold prices may decline [3] Group 3 - The outlook for gold next week appears bearish, with prices unexpectedly continuing to decline on Friday, touching the previously mentioned 4-hour trend line at $3,335 before weakening further. The current trend is viewed as bearish without any signs of rebound [5] - The hourly chart shows a clear rotation between bullish and bearish trends, with the first three days exhibiting an upward trend channel, followed by a direct retraction that established a new downward channel. The $3,350 level is identified as a key point for continued bearish sentiment next week [6] Group 4 - A trading strategy suggests shorting near $3,350, with a stop-loss at $3,360 and a target of $3,325, with further downside potential to $3,310 if the price breaks below these levels [8]

Market Performance - The three major indices in the US rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.26%, Nasdaq up 1.02%, and S&P 500 up 1.46% for the week [1] - The S&P 500 index set a new closing record for the fifth consecutive time, marking its 13th all-time high in 2025 [1] - Alphabet's strong earnings report contributed to a 4% increase in its stock price [1] - Over 82% of the 169 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings exceeded Wall Street expectations [1] Individual Stocks - Intel (INTC.US) saw a decline of 8.53%, while Tesla (TSLA.US) increased by 3.52% [1] - Paramount (PARA.US, PARAA.US) and Skydance Media's merger has received regulatory approval, expected to complete by August 7 [8] - Intel plans to spin off its Network and Edge Group into an independent company and is seeking external investment for this division [9] International Markets - The German DAX30 index fell by 0.39%, while the French CAC40 index rose by 0.21% [2] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Nikkei 225 index decreased by 0.88%, while the KOSPI index increased by 0.18% [3] Commodities - Gold prices fell by 0.94% to $3336.92 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 0.40% [4] - Crude oil prices also dropped, with light crude futures down 1.32% to $65.16 per barrel [3] Macro News - The Trump administration is preparing to issue a state of emergency declaration to impose tariffs on Brazilian goods [5] - There are reported discrepancies in the US-Japan trade agreement regarding profit sharing, with Japan denying the US's claim to 90% of profits [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Gold is weak and silver is strong, mainly due to the short - term high - level callback of risk - aversion demand, and the possibility of the Fed's near - term interest rate cut is eliminated. The expected supply - demand gap of silver still exists, and the inflation expectation rebounds due to the trade war, improving the expected industrial demand for silver [7]. - Medium - term: The risk of economic recession increases, which may force the interest - rate cut logic to be in the making. Precious metals will continue to fluctuate at a high level [7][9]. - Long - term: The global trade war promotes the reconstruction of the economic and political system and accelerates the reconstruction of the monetary system. There is still an upward trend for precious metals in the process of "de - dollarization" [7][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Risk - aversion Attribute - Trade agreements are reached in batches, and the negotiation of the US - EU trade agreement has made progress. The geopolitical risk eases, weakening the risk - aversion demand [2]. - Trump's threats to the Fed's independence have eased market concerns [2]. 2. Monetary Attribute - US economic data is mixed. In June, existing home sales dropped to a nine - month low, while the number of initial jobless claims last week hit a three - month low [3]. - The European Central Bank keeps interest rates unchanged, and the optimistic economic forecast triggers speculation about the end of interest rate cuts. The Fed is more divided and remains cautious about interest rate cuts. The market expects the next Fed interest rate cut to be stable until September, and the total interest rate cut space in 2025 drops to about 50 basis points. The decline of the US dollar index and US bond yields is blocked [3]. 3. Commodity Attribute - Although gold jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices, the investment demand for gold bars offsets some of the impact. Emerging market central banks' "de - dollarization" strategy promotes central bank gold - buying demand to remain high [4]. - The World Silver Association expects that due to a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap in 2025 will narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3,658 tons) [4]. 4. Capital Flow - Recently, the net long positions of CFTC managed funds in gold and silver have increased again. Domestic Shanghai gold futures companies have reduced their net long positions at a high level, and Shanghai silver institutions have slightly reduced their net long positions. The world's largest gold ETF and silver ETF have ended their long - term downward trends and slowly increased their positions [5]. 5. Future Investment Logic Evolution - Short - term: Gold is weak and silver is strong. - Medium - term: Precious metals will continue to fluctuate at a high level. - Long - term: Precious metals show an upward trend [7][9]. 6. Strategy - Short - term: Gold is weak and silver is strong. - Medium - term: Fluctuate at a high level. - Long - term: Step - by - step upward [7]. 7. Support and Resistance - Shanghai gold main contract: Support at 755 - 760, resistance at 790 - 795. - Shanghai silver main contract: Support at 9000 - 9030, resistance at 9600 - 9630 [7]. 8. 2024 - 2025 Fed Monetary Policy Path Review - From June 2024 to June 2025, the Fed's monetary policy has gone through multiple stages, including keeping interest rates unchanged, cutting interest rates, and adjusting the pace of interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has also changed accordingly [10][11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The gold price continues to decline due to reduced safe-haven demand driven by optimistic trade sentiments between the US and EU, alongside strong economic data and monetary policy expectations [3][4][10] Group 1: Trade Optimism and Safe-Haven Demand - Market expectations for a breakthrough in US-EU trade negotiations have diminished the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, with a potential agreement to lower tariffs to 15% expected by August 1 [3] - The announcement of a €93 billion tariff plan by EU member states against US products has not deterred optimism regarding a trade deal, leading to a significant drop in gold prices from a five-week high of $3438 [3] - The European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates has reinforced expectations of a weak Eurozone economy, indirectly supporting a stronger US dollar and pressuring gold prices [3] Group 2: Economic Data and Monetary Policy Pressure - Strong US economic data, including a 15.5% increase in durable goods orders (excluding defense), has contributed to a hawkish outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy, with a 94% probability of maintaining interest rates in July [4] - The rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.384% and an increase in real yields to 1.994% have raised the opportunity cost of holding gold [4] - The US dollar index has strengthened by 0.18% to 97.62, further diminishing the attractiveness of gold priced in dollars [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Institutional Withdrawal - Gold has fallen below the critical psychological level of $3400, with potential further declines towards $3350 if it remains below this threshold [7] - The RSI indicator shows a weakening of buyer dominance, indicating a slowdown in momentum [7] - Institutional investors are accelerating their exit from gold, as evidenced by a reduction in COMEX non-commercial net long positions by 3200 contracts to 122,000 and a decrease in SPDR Gold ETF holdings to a two-month low of 954.8 tons [9] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Data Expectations - Despite trade and economic factors dominating the market, geopolitical risks remain a concern, with potential events that could temporarily boost safe-haven demand [10] - The market is awaiting the release of US July durable goods orders data, with expectations of a drop from 16.4% in May to 10.8%, which could further reinforce a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve if the data exceeds expectations [10] - The current gold market faces dual pressures from trade optimism and economic data, with increased risks of downward movement below the $3350 support level [10]