证券研究报告：房地产|行业周报 发布时间：2025-11-24 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2271.52 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 2506.48 | | 52 | 周最低 | 1870.99 | 行业相对指数表现 -19% -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 2024-11 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2025-09 2025-11 房地产 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:高丁卉 SAC 登记编号:S1340524080001 Email:gaodinghui@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 《地产数据加速下滑 政策放松预期升 温》 - 2025.11.17 房地产行业报告 （2025.11.17-2025.11.23） 量价承压 信心与预期仍待修复 ⚫ 投资要点 当前房地产行业仍处于调整周期，销售端整体同比延续下滑态 势，政策层面持续加码城市更新与存量盘活，成为推动行业转型的关 键抓手。我们认为目前市场信心 ...

Group 1: Key Points on the TAZARA Railway Project - The TAZARA Railway activation project was inaugurated with the participation of the Chinese Premier and leaders from Zambia and Tanzania, aiming to enhance industrial and agricultural modernization in the region [1] - The railway, originally built in the 1970s, spans 1860.5 kilometers and includes 320 bridges and 22 tunnels, with the activation expected to increase freight capacity from approximately 200,000 tons to 2.4 million tons annually, while reducing transit time by two-thirds [1] Group 2: Urban Renewal Initiatives - A national urban renewal conference was held to promote high-quality urban development, focusing on creating modern, resilient, and smart cities [2] - The initiative emphasizes the necessity of urban renewal for accelerating urban energy transformation and aims to stimulate investment and consumption through new industries and business models [2] - A sustainable financing system for urban construction and operation is being established, encouraging financial institutions to develop long-term, low-interest credit products [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Developments and Investment Opportunities - Expectations for peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have increased, with Ukraine's delegation set to participate in negotiations regarding a U.S. peace plan [3] - A joint statement from multiple European nations indicates that the U.S. proposal could serve as a foundation for further discussions, highlighting the geopolitical context that may influence international engineering projects under the Belt and Road Initiative [3] Group 4: Recommended Investment Sectors - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as copper and cobalt resources, energy storage, dividends, and infrastructure development in Western regions as potential investment opportunities [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 24, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5630, rising 0.50%. The inventory has rebounded rapidly, the output has continued to decline slightly at a high level, and the inventory has rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore at the raw material end increased by 330,000 tons, and the iron - water demand has a seasonal decline overall. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. - On November 24, the silicon - iron 2603 contract was reported at 5456, rising 0.04%. The weakening of coal has led to a correction in alloys. Market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid - demand replenishment, prices have declined, and the inventory in this period has decreased. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 5,630.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan; SF main contract closing price: 5,456.00 yuan/ton, down 16.00 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract holding volume: 718,487.00 lots, down 32,735.00 lots; SF futures contract holding volume: 436,286.00 lots, down 12,267.00 lots [2]. - Manganese - silicon top 20 net holding volume: - 7,574.00 lots, down 181.00 lots; Silicon - iron top 20 net holding volume: - 10,992.00 lots, up 2,577.00 lots [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 62.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread: - 14.00 yuan/ton, up 12.00 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 20,797.00 pieces, up 460.00 pieces; SF warehouse receipts: 9,039.00 pieces, up 763.00 pieces [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,450.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan; Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B: 5,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 0.00 yuan/ton, down 5,500.00 yuan; Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B: 5,130.00 yuan/ton [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5,500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B: 5,220.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average: 5,515.75 yuan/ton, down 63.25 yuan; SF main contract basis: - 236.00 yuan/ton, up 36.00 yuan [2]. - SM main contract basis: - 180.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port: 32.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98% in Northwest China): 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu): 880.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 4.263 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate: 39.13%, down 0.46%; Silicon - iron enterprise operating rate: 33.81%, down 1.03% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply: 196,910.00 tons, down 2,660.00 tons; Silicon - iron supply: 108,300.00 tons, down 800.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory: 363,000.00 tons, up 13,500.00 tons; Silicon - iron manufacturer inventory: 73,050.00 tons, down 8,310.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon inventory of national steel mills: 15.70 days, down 0.23 days; Silicon - iron inventory of national steel mills: 15.67 days, up 0.15 days [2]. - Manganese - silicon demand of five major steel types: 121,407.00 tons, up 2,818.00 tons; Silicon - iron demand of five major steel types: 19,543.00 tons, up 469.20 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 82.17%, down 0.62%; Blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 88.56%, down 0.26% [2]. - Crude steel output: 71.997 million tons, down 1.4931 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Foreign institutions generally predict that China's economy will maintain steady growth in 2026 with policy support. Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for China's export growth rate and real GDP growth rate [2]. - In October 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 143.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% [2]. - In October, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, the first single - month increase exceeding 10% this year [2]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development held a national urban renewal work promotion meeting, aiming to focus on four aspects: planning, funds, operation, and governance [2]. 3.7 Market Pricing - HeSteel Group's final price for silicon - manganese in November was 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [2]. - HeSteel's tender price for 75B silicon - iron in November was 5,680 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton higher than the previous round [2]. 3.8 Profit Situation - Inner Mongolia's spot profit for manganese - silicon: - 260 yuan/ton; Ningxia's spot profit for manganese - silicon: - 400 yuan/ton [2]. - Inner Mongolia's spot profit for silicon - iron: - 240 yuan/ton; Ningxia's spot profit for silicon - iron: - 470 yuan/ton [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 24, the JM2601 contract closed at 1096.5, down 1.48%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1550, equivalent to 1330 on the futures market. The macro - situation: the NDRC issued a notice on ensuring coal supply for power generation in 2026, weakening the market's expectations. Fundamentally, the capacity utilization rate of mines has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, and the coking coal inventory of coal washing plants has increased for three consecutive weeks. The inventory is at a moderate level, and the total inventory shows a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly volatile [2]. - On November 24, the J2601 contract closed at 1632.5, up 0.03%. The fourth round of price increase for coke has been implemented in the spot market. Macro: in October 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 143.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9%. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the current pig iron output is 236.28 million tons, a decrease of 0.60 million tons, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants in the country is 19 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 1096.50, down 6.50; J main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 1632.50, up 18.00 [2]. - JM futures contract open interest (daily, lots): 859403.00, up 17120.00; J futures contract open interest (daily, lots): 49177.00, down 782.00 [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 JM contracts (daily, lots): - 106865.00, up 6957.00; net open interest of the top 20 J contracts (daily, lots): - 1532.00, up 150.00 [2]. - JM May - January contract spread (daily, yuan/ton): 83.00, down 2.50; J May - January contract spread (daily, yuan/ton): 149.50, down 14.00 [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts (daily, pieces): 0.00, unchanged; coke warehouse receipts (daily, pieces): 2070.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (daily, yuan/ton): 1000.00, unchanged; Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1885.00, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR, US dollars/wet ton): 162.50, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1670.00, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal (daily, yuan/ton): 1570.00, unchanged; Tianjin Port Grade I metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1770.00, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1780.00, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1670.00, unchanged [2]. - Medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi (daily, yuan/ton): 1610.00, unchanged; J main contract basis (daily, yuan/ton): 252.50, down 18.00 [2]. - Coking coal ex - factory price in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia: 1380.00, down 20.00; JM main contract basis (daily, yuan/ton): 513.50, up 6.50 [2]. Upstream Situation - The coking coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants (daily, million tons): 27.60, up 0.20; the coking coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants (weekly, million tons): 302.80, up 2.00 [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants (weekly, %): 0.38, unchanged; raw coal output (monthly, million tons): 40675.00, down 475.50 [2]. - Coal and lignite imports (monthly, million tons): 4174.00, down 426.00; average daily raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 193.40, up 1.50 [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports (weekly, million tons): 456.90, down 31.30; coke inventory at 18 ports (weekly, million tons): 253.40, down 6.10 [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises (weekly, million tons): 1038.19, down 30.78; total coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises (weekly, million tons): 65.29, up 7.14 [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly, million tons): 797.08, up 6.91; coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills nationwide (weekly, million tons): 622.34, down 0.06 [2]. - Available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises (weekly, days): 12.97, up 0.10; available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills (weekly, days): 11.05, down 0.01 [2]. Industry Situation - Coking coal imports (monthly, million tons): 1059.32, down 33.04; coke and semi - coke exports (monthly, million tons): 73.00, up 19.00 [2]. - Coking coal output (monthly, million tons): 3975.92, up 279.06; capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises (weekly, %): 71.71, up 0.07 [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants (weekly, yuan/ton): 19.00, up 53.00 [2]. - Coke output (monthly, million tons): 4189.60, down 66.00 [2]. Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly, %): 82.17, down 0.62; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly, %): 88.56, down 0.26 [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly, million tons): 7199.70, down 149.31 [2]. Industry News - Foreign institutions generally predict that China's economy will maintain steady growth with policy support in 2026. Morgan Stanley believes that China's economy will have moderate growth in 2026 under moderate easing policies, gradual re - balancing and restrained "anti - involution" measures. Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for China's export growth rate and real GDP growth rate [2]. - In October 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 143.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% [2]. - In October, the total social electricity consumption was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, the first single - month increase of more than 10% this year [2]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development held a national urban renewal work promotion meeting, emphasizing efforts in planning, funds, operation, and governance to promote urban renewal [2].

螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/11/24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,089.00 | +32↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1432705 | -80706↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -82833 | +23041↑ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -29 | +12↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 65158 | +338↑ HC2601-RB2601合约价差(元/吨) | 206 | -7↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,270.00 | +20↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,354 | +21↑ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,420.00 | +20↑ 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,210.00 | 0.00 | | | RB 主力合约基差 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of urban renewal, advocating for a systematic approach to enhance the quality of housing and urban environments, thereby supporting high-quality urban development [3][4]. Group 1: Urban Renewal Initiatives - The Ministry has called for urban renewal to be prioritized, focusing on planning, funding, operations, and governance [4]. - A comprehensive urban renewal planning system is being established, integrating city assessments with renewal strategies to ensure effective implementation [3][4]. - The urban renewal efforts are expected to provide a stable supply of new projects, crucial for the industry's development and the rational allocation of land resources [4]. Group 2: Local Policy Developments - Guangzhou's Anju Group has restarted the acquisition of existing residential properties, prioritizing those under 90 square meters for use as affordable housing [12][13]. - In Chenzhou, new regulations require that properties must be fully constructed before they can be sold, promoting the sale of existing homes [14]. - Hangzhou's Yuhang District has introduced a subsidy of 30,000 yuan for each unit sold under promotional projects, aiming to stimulate housing sales [15]. - Chengdu has allowed the conversion of self-owned rental housing into regular commercial housing, which is expected to alleviate financial pressures on developers and improve market conditions [16]. Group 3: Financial Support and Data - The Ministry of Finance has allocated 56.6 billion yuan in advance for urban housing projects, with significant funding distributed across different regions [5][6]. - National land use rights revenue for the first ten months of the year reached 24,982 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.4% year-on-year decline, indicating challenges in the real estate market [8]. - The total tax revenue from property-related taxes has shown mixed results, with property tax increasing by 10.6% while land value tax decreased by 17.5% [8][9]. Group 4: Policy Trends - The frequency of local market stabilization policies has increased, with a balanced distribution across various types of policies, including urban renewal and housing guarantees [20][22]. - Recent trends indicate a focus on optimizing public housing fund policies, which remain a key tool for market stabilization [25].

Core Viewpoint - The renovation and adaptive reuse of the Old Municipal Building in Shanghai represent a significant effort in urban renewal, blending historical preservation with contemporary art and public engagement [5][10][26]. Group 1: Historical Significance - The Old Municipal Building, completed in 1922, is recognized as the "first enclosed building in the Far East" and has served various governmental functions since the establishment of the People's Republic of China in 1949 [1][11]. - It has historical value as it was the site where the first Chinese national flag was raised in Shanghai and has hosted significant events, including a lecture by Einstein in 1923 [3][11]. Group 2: Renovation Project - The comprehensive renovation project, initiated in 2014, aims to preserve the building's historical integrity while updating its functionality for modern use [3][10]. - The design is led by David Chipperfield, a recipient of the Pritzker Architecture Prize, emphasizing the building's architectural and cultural significance [3][13]. Group 3: Public Engagement and Art Integration - The building has recently reopened to the public, hosting art exhibitions and forums that explore the intersection of architecture, art, and cultural dialogue [5][7][25]. - The "Out of the Realm" exhibition featured discussions on how historical buildings can integrate with contemporary art and public life, highlighting the importance of context in artistic expression [5][7][25]. Group 4: Urban Renewal Context - The Old Municipal Building is part of a broader urban renewal initiative in the Bund area, reflecting ongoing efforts to revitalize historical sites while maintaining their cultural heritage [10][16]. - The project aims to create a public space that fosters community engagement and cultural activities, contributing to the overall urban landscape of Shanghai [10][16].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - In the first ten months of 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities decreased by 9% year-on-year, while the average floor price increased by 15% [1][51] - The top three companies in terms of new land reserve value from January to October 2025 are China Overseas Land & Investment (119.9 billion), China Merchants Shekou (103.4 billion), and Greentown China (65.1 billion) [2][87] - The core 30 cities saw a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 3% in residential land transaction area, but a 22% increase in average price [2][3] Summary by Sections Land Supply and Demand - In the first ten months of 2025, the total land supply in 100 cities was 1.113 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%, while the total land transaction area was 946 million square meters, down 7% [8] - The supply of residential land in 100 cities for the same period was 239 million square meters, a decrease of 19.1% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 184 million square meters, down 9.3% [18] Land Transaction Prices - The average floor price of residential land in 100 cities for the first ten months of 2025 was 6,597 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [51][62] - In the core 30 cities, the average floor price for residential land transactions was 11,423 yuan per square meter, up 21.8% year-on-year [3][95] Top 50 Real Estate Companies' Land Acquisition - The top 50 real estate companies saw a 55% year-on-year increase in new land reserve value, totaling 908.4 billion yuan from January to October 2025 [78] - The top three companies by new land reserve area are China Overseas Land & Investment (4.15 million square meters), Poly Developments (3.51 million square meters), and China Merchants Shekou (3.07 million square meters) [2][87] Core 30 Cities Land Transaction Situation - In October 2025, the core 30 cities recorded 133 residential land transactions, with a total area of 855 million square meters, down 43% year-on-year [92] - The cumulative total land transaction price in the core 30 cities from January to October 2025 was 946.5 billion yuan, an increase of 17.8% year-on-year [95][102] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong brand reputation and sales performance in core cities, such as Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou [4][118] - Consider companies with rich existing resources and operational brand competitiveness, like China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [4][118] - Look for long-term growth potential in property services, recommending companies like China Merchants Jinling and Greentown Services [4][118]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-11-24 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 49.80 | 50.10 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.00 | 50.20 | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

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