Monetary Policy Stance - Federal Reserve's Daly (2027 voter) suggests a significant interest rate cut next month may be inappropriate [1] - Policy may be too restrictive and misaligned with economic trends, necessitating recalibration [1]

今日周四(8月14日)欧盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于38.50一线下方，今日开盘于38.47美元/盎司，截至发稿，伦敦银暂报 38.44美元/盎司，下跌0.15%，最高触及38.73美元/盎司，最低下探38.40美元/盎司，目前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看跌 走势。 【要闻速递】 根据CME集团美联储观察工具显示，美联储几乎确定将在9月政策会议上降息25个基点，且预计年底前至少进行两次降 息。 这一预期得到周二基本符合预期的美国消费者通胀数据印证。此外，7月美国非农就业报告显示出劳动力市场疲软迹象， 为进一步宽松政策提供了依据。 与此同时，美国总统特朗普进一步向美联储主席鲍威尔施压要求降息。此外，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，美联储 应考虑在下月降息50个基点。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比称，相比异常疲弱的就业报告，他更担忧上月核心通胀的上升，因此可能不会支持9月降息。 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克承认最新一轮就业数据整体疲软，并指出关税可能导致结构性变化，但他拒绝就降息置评。 美国国债收益率持续承压，因投资者正在评估加征关税对美国经济的潜在影响，并等待北美时段晚些时候即将公布的美 国生产者价格指数(PPI)。 【最新伦 ...

智通财经APP获悉，英国经济在第二季度的表现好于预期，这让英国财政大臣里夫斯(Rachel Reeves)得 以松一口气，但也提高了英国央行进一步降息的门槛。 英国国家统计局周四公布的数据显示，英国第二季度GDP环比增长0.3%，超过经济学家和英国央行预 测的0.1%。继前两个月小幅下滑后，英国GDP在6月实现了0.4%的环比增长，是经济学家预测值的两 倍。 英国GDP在第一季度0.7%的增长被认为是制造商为应对美国关税而"人为"提振的，但英国首相斯塔默 (Keir Starmer)仍多次将英国在七国集团(G7)中表现优于其他成员国视为经济"触底反弹"的证据。 这些数据也使英国央行在是否继续降息方面面临更多不确定性。周二公布的统计数据显示，自去年10月 里夫斯提高税收的预算案以来，失业人数少于此前预期。交易员们已不再充分押注英国央行今年会进一 步降息，并预计基准利率将在明年稳定在3.5%。 英国央行在上周以经济活动减弱为理由实施了一年内的第五次降息。然而，近一半的货币政策委员会成 员反对这一决定，理由是对近期通胀上涨感到担忧。此次政策会议也是英国央行28年历史上首次需要两 轮投票才能达成最终利率决议的情况。 ...

Core Insights - The UK economy showed unexpected resilience in Q2, with GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, surpassing previous forecasts of 0.1% [1][4] - The strong economic performance comes amid multiple challenges, including a £26 billion tax hike and rising regulated prices [4] - The latest GDP data has altered market expectations, reducing the likelihood of further interest rate cuts this year [4][7] Economic Performance - All major economic sectors experienced growth in Q2, with services, particularly IT and healthcare, being the main drivers [5] - Manufacturing expanded by 0.3% despite higher export barriers to the US [5] - Real GDP per capita increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 0.7% year-on-year [5] Challenges Ahead - Despite positive Q2 data, the economic outlook remains challenging due to potential tax increases and new employment legislation [8] - The government is relying on economic growth to fund spending plans, but market concerns about further tax measures are causing hesitance in investment and spending [8] Government Response - Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledged the positive economic data but emphasized the need for further work to benefit the workforce [9] - Reeves plans to focus on investment and reforms to address weak productivity, including infrastructure improvements and planning system changes [9][10]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - The remarks of Besent suggesting a possible 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September boosted the US stocks, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hitting new highs. In the domestic market, the Shanghai Composite Index successfully broke through the high of the "924" market last year. Although the trading volume on that day increased significantly compared with recent days but did not reach an extremely high level. There may be short - term washing behavior, but the overall upward channel pattern is maintained. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the layout opportunities during the pullbacks [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Consumption Policy Advancement**: Domestically, from January to July this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and the stock of social financing scale increased by 9%. Four departments including the central bank explained two discount policies, which are an innovative exploration of fiscal - financial coordination to support and boost consumption and will form a "combination punch" with policies such as subsidies for trading in old consumer goods for new ones. Overseas, US Treasury Secretary Besent issued the clearest call for interest rate cuts so far, asking the Federal Reserve to immediately start a new round of interest rate cut cycles and stating that US interest rates should be 150 to 175 basis points lower than the current level. He believes that the Federal Reserve may start interest rate cuts earlier, and there is a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September [1]. - **Shanghai Composite Index Uptrend**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indices fluctuated upwards. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to close at 3683.46 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.62%. In terms of industries, most sector indices rose. The communication, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and pharmaceutical and biological industries led the gains, while the banking, coal, and food and beverage industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan on that day. In the overseas market, the three major US stock indices closed up across the board, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.04% to close at 44922.27 points [1]. - **Futures Index Position Reduction**: In the futures market, in terms of basis, the current - month futures index contract will be delivered on Friday, and the basis tends to converge. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume of the IH contract increased, while the open interest of stock index futures decreased [2]. 2. Strategy - The remarks of Besent about a possible 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September boosted US stocks. In the domestic market, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the high of the "924" market last year. Although the trading volume increased significantly but did not reach an extremely high level. There may be short - term adjustments, but the overall upward trend remains. Investors are advised to look for opportunities during pullbacks [3]. 3. Charts Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts such as the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][12][11]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Domestic Main Stock Index Daily Performance**: On August 13, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3683.46, up 0.48% from the previous day; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11551.36, up 1.76%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2496.50, up 3.62%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4176.58, up 0.79%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2812.98, up 0.61%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6508.10, up 1.40%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7064.33, up 1.45% [14]. - Also includes charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [6][15]. Futures Index Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are provided. For example, the trading volume of the IF contract was 126774, an increase of 23189, and the open interest was 266298, an increase of 10150 [16]. - **Basis**: The basis data of the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are given. For example, the current - month contract basis of the IF contract was 4.62, an increase of 4.05 [41]. - **Inter - temporal Spread**: The inter - temporal spread data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are presented, including the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts, the next - quarter and current - month contracts, etc. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of the IF contract was - 10.40, an increase of 2.80 [46]. - Also includes charts related to open interest, open interest ratio, and foreign capital net positions of each contract [6].

Group 1: Global Macro Insights - The US July CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous month and below the expected 2.8%. The month-on-month increase was 0.2%, consistent with expectations, while core CPI rose to 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a continuous upward trend over three months [3][4] - The likelihood of a rate cut in September has increased significantly, driven by soft non-farm payroll data and rising employment risks. The appointment of Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve may further tilt the Fed towards a rate cut [4] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Tencent Music - Tencent Music's Q2 revenue reached 8.4 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 6%. Subscription revenue grew by 17% year-on-year, with SVIP penetration rising to 12%. Non-member business revenue surged by 47%, driven by advertising and concert revenues [9][10] - The company maintains a forecast of 6.1 million net new members for the year, with an expected ARPPU of 12.2 yuan by year-end. Non-subscription revenue is projected to grow by 30% in 2025, supported by advertising and concert collaborations [9] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights -阅文集团 (Yuewen Group) - Yuewen Group's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 3.2 billion yuan, a 24% year-on-year decline. However, adjusted net profit increased by 36% to 550 million yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 17% [5][8] - The IP derivatives business continues to show strong growth, with GMV reaching 480 million yuan, nearing the total for the entire year of 2024. The company expects a 15% decline in copyright operations revenue, while core IP operations are projected to grow by 4% [5][8] Group 4: Valuation Adjustments - For Yuewen Group, the target price has been raised to 39 HKD, reflecting an upward adjustment in valuation based on a 25x P/E ratio, considering the industry's valuation center has shifted upwards [8] - Tencent Music's target price has been adjusted to 30 USD, based on a 30x P/E ratio, highlighting the potential for diversified monetization in the music services sector [10]

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are experiencing significant turmoil, driven by political statements and economic data, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy and the stability of the U.S. dollar [1][3][12]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, and the probability of Federal Reserve Chair Powell being dismissed has risen to 26% [1]. - Gold prices surged by $20 per ounce, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 25 points, reflecting heightened market volatility [1]. - The Dow Jones index dropped nearly 1%, contrasting with the Nasdaq reaching a historic high, illustrating a split in market performance [6][12]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is facing internal divisions, with a 9:2 vote against the Chair's decision, marking the first public dissent since 1993 [3][4]. - There is a growing expectation for interest rate cuts, with predictions of a 25 basis point reduction in September, October, and December [8]. - The Fed's current debt burden stands at $37 trillion, with interest payments consuming a quarter of federal tax revenue [1][4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Core CPI has risen to 2.9%, with significant price increases in clothing (0.4%), furniture (1%), and appliances (1.9%) due to tariffs [4]. - The labor market shows mixed signals, with private sector job growth exceeding expectations but a rising unemployment rate attributed to a decrease in labor supply [6][7]. - The July non-farm payroll report revealed only 73,000 new jobs, significantly below expectations, leading to a sharp increase in the likelihood of rate cuts [7][8]. Group 4: Global Financial Trends - Central banks sold $36 billion in U.S. Treasuries in April and accumulated 280 tons of gold in the first half of the year, the highest in two decades [4]. - The trend towards "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum, with countries like Brazil and entities in the EU and ASEAN exploring alternatives to the U.S. dollar [4][12].

1. Market Performance - Shanghai gold (Au) rose 0.11% to 777.10 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver (Ag) rose 1.12% to 9318.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.03% to 3407.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.10% to 38.57 dollars/ounce. The US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.24%, and the US dollar index was 97.77 [2] - Various gold and silver products showed different price changes and trading volumes. For example, Au(T+D) rose 0.20% to 774.71 yuan/gram, and Ag(T+D) rose 1.26% to 9278.00 yuan/kilogram [4] 2. Market Outlook - US Treasury Secretary Bessent called for a more aggressive interest rate cut in the Fed's monetary policy. He believes the benchmark interest rate should be lowered by 150 - 175 basis points, with a 50 - basis - point cut in September. Trump also wants to lower the interest rate to 1%. Although there are differences in the appointment of the Fed chairman between Bessent and Trump, Trump's view will dominate, leading the Fed to a more accommodative monetary policy [3] 3. Investment Strategy - It is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metals market. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 766 - 787 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver, it is 9075 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [3] 4. Data Summary - A detailed summary of key gold and silver data is provided, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interest, and inventory changes from August 12 to August 13, 2025, along with their daily changes and historical quantiles [7] 5. Charts and Analysis - Multiple charts are presented, including the relationship between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, open interest, and other factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, and ETF holdings. These charts help analyze the market trends and characteristics of precious metals [9][12][17]

编辑 | 七三 美股齐涨 周三，美股全线收高，市场关注美联储9月降息前景。 截至收盘，道指涨463.66点，涨幅1.04%，报44922.27点，纳指涨0.14%，报21713.14点，标普500指数涨 0.32%，报6466.58点。标普和纳指分别迎来今年第17个和第20个收盘历史新高，道指距离刷新高位仅一 步之遥。与此同时，追踪对利率敏感的小盘股公司的罗素2000指数上涨近2%，创下六个月新高。 明星科技股跌多涨少，苹果涨1.6%，报道称公司正计划向人工智能机器人、家庭安全和智能显示器方 向扩张。亚马逊涨1.4%，特斯拉跌0.4%，谷歌跌0.5%，英伟达跌0.8%，Meta跌1.2%，微软1.6%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨超2%。阿里巴巴、百度涨超3%，网易涨超2%，京东涨超1%。 美国财长贝森特呼吁降息，"利率太严格了……我们可能应该低150到175个基点，"他补充道："9月份降 息50个基点的可能性很大。" 根据芝加哥商品交易所联邦观察工具的数据，交易员已完全定价9月降息。其中，降息25个基点的可能 性为95.8%，降息50个基点的可能性为4.2%。 美国国债收益率下跌，10年期国债收益率下降5.7个 ...

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones rising over 400 points, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new historical highs [4][6] - The Russell 2000 index led the market with an increase of nearly 2%, while the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 2.08% [5][8] - Despite the overall market gains, major tech stocks experienced declines, with Microsoft and Facebook both dropping over 1% [5][11] Federal Reserve Expectations - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September have increased, driven by a lower-than-expected CPI inflation report [5][17] - Analysts estimate a 93.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with no chance of maintaining current rates [17][19] - Federal Reserve official Goolsbee indicated that all meetings this fall could be opportunities for policy adjustments, depending on inflation and employment data [16][20] Individual Stock Movements - Notable movements in individual stocks include NIO's significant rise of 17.21%, and Dingdong Maicai increasing by over 7% [8][9] - Bridgewater Associates reported a substantial increase in its holdings of Nvidia by approximately 4.39 million shares, a 154.37% increase, while completely exiting positions in Alibaba and other stocks [10] Commodity Prices - Gold and silver prices rose, with spot gold reaching as high as $3,370 per ounce, supported by the Fed's rate cut expectations [13] - In contrast, international oil prices fell, with Brent crude oil futures dropping by 49 cents to $65.63 per barrel, a decrease of 0.74% [14]