1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driver of current oil price valuation is the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, which has intensified concerns about the supply side of the oil market. Overall, the center of oil prices will continue to move upward with large amplitude [1][3]. - For fuel oil, the supply - demand situation of high - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than that of low - sulfur fuel oil, and the LU - FU spread still has downward space [3]. - For asphalt, the short - term cost - end crude oil price fluctuates greatly, and BU is restricted by the demand side, with limited upward space and smaller increases than crude oil and fuel oil [3][4]. - For polyester, PX is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, TA has a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and EG prices will fluctuate in the short term [4]. - For rubber, the rubber price will fluctuate under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand [6]. - For methanol, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly with increased volatility [6]. - For polyolefins, short - term price fluctuations will increase, and investors are advised to avoid risks in the short term [6][7]. - For PVC, the fundamentals still have pressure, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling before the market provides obvious space [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - On Tuesday, the WTI July contract closed up $3.07 to $74.84 per barrel, a 4.28% increase; the Brent August contract closed up $3.22 to $76.45 per barrel, a 4.40% increase; SC2507 closed at 552.5 yuan per barrel, up 31.9 yuan per barrel, a 6.13% increase [1]. - The Israel - Iran conflict is intensifying. The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 720,000 barrels per day and for 2026 to 740,000 barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil supply will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 [1]. - In the week ending June 13, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 10.133 million barrels, the largest single - week decline since the week ending August 25, 2023 [1]. Fuel Oil - On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.03% at 3,247 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2508 closed down 1.25% at 3,806 yuan per ton [3]. - In May, the average commercial inventory level of crude oil and fuel oil at Shandong coastal ports was 8.7 million tons, a slight 0.91% decline month - on - month [3]. Asphalt - On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.03% at 3,644 yuan per ton [3]. - Next week, refinery resumption is expected to drive a slight increase in production, but overall supply will remain low. Northern demand is relatively stable, while southern demand is weak due to rain [3][4]. Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,782 yuan per ton on the previous day, up 0.34%; EG2509 closed at 4,400 yuan per ton, up 0.59% [4]. - A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi is restarting, and a 500,000 - ton PX plant in Japan has stopped for maintenance [4]. Rubber - On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 40 yuan per ton to 13,870 yuan per ton; the NR main contract closed down 20 yuan per ton to 12,140 yuan per ton [4]. - Increased rainfall in the producing areas has led to不畅 raw material output at the beginning of tapping, and downstream demand is weak [6]. Methanol - On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,615 yuan per ton, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1,987.5 yuan per ton [6]. - The inland inventory is rising, but the MTO plant operating rate remains high, and the port inventory increase will slow down [6]. Polyolefins - On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 7,150 - 7,280 yuan per ton. Due to high geopolitical uncertainty, short - term price fluctuations will increase [6][7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Tuesday, the East China PVC market fluctuated and consolidated. With the downstream entering the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis, futures prices, spot prices, basis rates, and other data of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on June 17 and 16 [8]. 3.3 Market News - On June 17, the Middle East geopolitical situation was tense. Israel's Defense Minister Katz said the Israeli military had destroyed the central area of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility [10]. - The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 and expects sufficient oil supply in the market until 2030 [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][14][16][18][20][22]. 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [25][27][33][36]. 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [57][58][59][62][63]. 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of various energy and chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [64][65][67]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy and Chemical Research Team, including the assistant director and energy and chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [71][72][73][74]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979 [76].

Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation, particularly the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, is expected to continue driving gold prices upward until there is a perceived easing of tensions [1][2] - Weak economic data from the U.S., including a 0.9% decline in retail sales and a 0.2% drop in industrial output, has increased expectations for a more dovish monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, benefiting silver prices [2][3] - Gold is seen as a hedge against currency devaluation, with its price rising nearly 30% against the U.S. dollar this year, driven by increasing fiscal deficits and potential inflation [4] Group 1: Economic Data Impact - U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9% in May, marking the largest month-over-month decline in four months, reflecting consumer caution ahead of tariff policy implementations [3] - Industrial production data also fell short of market expectations, reinforcing the outlook for a shift in Federal Reserve policy [3] - The Senate's proposal to make corporate tax cuts permanent and raise the debt ceiling poses long-term challenges for the U.S. dollar and treasury credit [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Price Trends - Despite a strong dollar, gold prices have been resilient, with a potential consolidation around $3,400 before the upcoming FOMC meeting [5] - Silver prices have surged, breaking through $37 per ounce, indicating a strong market response to expectations of monetary easing [1][2] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with geopolitical tensions and economic data influencing trading strategies [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-18甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，上周华东、华南港口甲醇价格维持坚挺但涨幅有限，受船龄限制政策持续影响，港口市场尚存 支撑，同时中美贸易谈判进展及全球贸易预期改善，叠加地缘政治因素推高油价，共同推动期现货价格上行，且基差较 上周走强，不过价格上涨后，现货商谈趋于谨慎。内地方面，周初西北CTO工厂甲醇外采，以及当前甲醇价格已处于底 部空间部分投机需求增加，产区主要工厂竞拍溢价成交，上游工厂去库存节奏加快。另外港口走强也在一定程度上提振 业者心态，贸易商谨慎做空，场内低价货源难寻，销区下游接货也适度走高。但同时因传统下游需求多步入高温淡季， 以及当前国内甲醇开工仍在高位，供需基本面支撑利好仍显不足，买方对 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】IEA报告显示，石油需求将于2029年达到 1.056亿桶/日的峰值，2030年小幅回落。与此同时，全球产能 预计到2030年将增加超500万桶/日，达1.147亿桶/日。预计 2025年全球石油供应将增加180万桶/日，将2025年平均石油需 求增长预期下调至72万桶/日，将2026年平均石油需求增长预期 下调至74万桶/日；API数据：当周API原油库存大幅下降1013.3 万桶；据央视报道，当地时间6月17日，乌克兰基辅军政管理局 负责人特卡琴科表示，当日凌晨俄罗斯对基辅及周边地区发动 了大规模袭击，此次袭击击中了居民楼，造成严重损失；据新 华社报道，欧盟委员会6月17日提出一项立法提案，欧盟将在 2027年年底前逐步停止进口俄罗斯的天然气和石油；据伊朗国 家通讯社报道，革命卫队周二宣布向以色列发射"更强大"的 新一轮导弹，一名高级军官称无人机群即将来袭。评：IEA月报 预测年度供应宽松。市场注意力集中在了中东地缘层面，目前 紧张局势仍未得到缓和。短期短多思路。 【短评-PTA】PXCFR当前报866美元/吨，PX-N242美元/吨； 华东PTA报4980元/吨 ...

| | | 甲醇日评20250618: 地缘不确定性高，建议暂时观望 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 | 单位 | 2025/6/17 | 2025/6/16 | | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2455.00 | 2464.00 | -9.00 | -0.37% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2387.00 | 2395.00 | -8.00 | -0.33% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2455.00 | 2464.00 | -9.00 | -0.37% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2610.00 | 2587.50 | 22.50 | 0.87% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2275.00 | 2302.50 | -27.50 | -1.19% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2500.00 | 2490.00 | 10 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Methanol - The short - term inventory accumulation trend continues. Import and domestic logistics jointly drive a significant increase in port inventory. Although downstream operations are at a high level, profit contraction intensifies the pressure of hidden inventory. If Iranian supply is interrupted due to geopolitical conflicts, it may relieve the supply - demand contradiction at ports. Short - term strategy is to wait and see, while long - term Iranian shutdown may boost sentiment [2]. Crude Oil - Overnight crude oil prices rose, mainly driven by geopolitical uncertainties. The potential supply interruption risk has pushed up the risk premium, supporting high oil prices. The US industry data shows a sharp drop in crude oil inventory last week. Geopolitical tensions extend the market uncertainty period, supporting oil prices above the pre - conflict level. Short - term, a bullish approach is recommended [20]. Urea - The domestic urea market remains in a loose supply pattern. The key marginal change is the relaxation of export policies, which opens an international channel for excess production capacity. Short - term trading logic should focus on multiple factors such as the operation status of Iranian urea export ports and international buyer inquiries [28]. Styrene - The pure benzene market price continues to decline from a high level. On the styrene side, supply increases as some petrochemical plants restart. Downstream 3S profits improve and replenishment is fair, leading to a slight decline in port inventory. In the short - term, it fluctuates sharply, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the marginal pressure on supply - demand after the restart of styrene plants [34]. Caustic Soda - Recently, the operation of caustic soda has declined, but cost reduction leads to partial resumption of production, which has limited impact. Demand from the alumina end is weakening, and non - aluminum demand is sluggish. There is short - term supply - demand pressure in inventory, and further capacity pressure risk may occur after the return of maintenance devices [38]. PVC - In the short - term, PVC shows a volatile operation. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent due to the decline in the domestic real estate sector. The supply side is expected to face greater pressure in the future. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling approach [38]. Polyester Industry Chain - Oil prices are under pressure to rise further due to weak supply - demand expectations. PX is expected to be strong in the short - term. PTA is also expected to be supported in the short - term. Ethylene glycol is expected to be strong in the short - term. Short - fiber has weak supply - demand but strong price support. Bottle - chip supply - demand is expected to improve, and processing fees may rebound [42]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices decreased by 0.37%. The Taicang basis increased by 25.51%. Regional spreads such as Taicang - Inner Mongolia and Taicang - Luoyang also changed [2]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 2.33%, port inventory by 12.22%, and social inventory by 8.37% [2]. - **Operation Rate**: Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operation rates increased, and some downstream operation rates such as acetic acid and MTBE also increased [2]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI decreased, while EFS increased [20]. - **Market Logic**: Geopolitical uncertainties, especially the conflict between Iran and Israel, drive up oil prices. US industry data shows a sharp drop in crude oil inventory [20]. Urea - **Futures and Spot**: Futures contract prices and spreads changed. Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase [23][24][27]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days data changed. The export policy was relaxed [27][28]. Styrene - **Upstream**: The prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and other upstream products changed. The pure benzene market price continued to decline [31][34]. - **Spot and Futures**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased. The supply side increased, and downstream inventory decreased slightly [32][34]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Caustic Soda**: Prices, overseas quotes, and export profits changed. Operation rates decreased, and inventory showed different trends in different regions [38]. - **PVC**: Spot and futures prices, overseas quotes, and export profits changed. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak [38]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Prices of upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX, and downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed [42]. - **Operation Rates and Cash Flows**: Operation rates of various polyester products and cash flows also changed. Different products in the industry chain have different supply - demand and price trends [42].

一样的行情，不一样的指导，不一样的人生。新手的特点就是不懂技术，盲目进场。他们每次交易只考虑一个问题：认为只要预判了市场涨跌就可以去做这 笔交易。这种重方向、轻位置的做法使得交易者一败涂地。其实，顺势而为的"势"跟"方向"是有很大差别的，因为市场的运动方向呈现震荡的形态运行，而 市场的趋势往往是全局性的。在我这里，我能做的是帮你合理的把控仓位，利用支撑和阻力位下单，让每一单有理可依，有迹可循。买卖点位不应该是随意 进场，请对自己的资金负责。如果你对行情真的无法把握，可以前来找到我，多一个分析师对你来说没有任何损失，永远记住一句话，专业的人做专业的 事，一切实战只为盈利，合作只为双赢。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 原油消息面解析：周二早盘，布伦特原油期货上涨0.73美元，涨幅1%，报每桶73.66美元；美国WTI原油上涨0.55美元，涨幅0.78%，至每桶70.38美元。两者 在稍早时段均一度上涨超过2%，主要由于地缘局势骤然恶化。此前周一，两大基准油价曾因有关伊朗可能寻求缓和局势的媒体报道而下跌超过1%。但事实 证明，市场的短期乐观情绪未能持久。当前油价走势主要受地缘政治而非基本面推动。市场对中东局势的敏感性提升 ...

Market Overview - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated, with Trump demanding Iran's unconditional surrender and threatening further military action, leading to a significant decline in U.S. stock markets, with major indices falling nearly 1% [3] - Technology stocks were also affected, with Tesla dropping nearly 4%, while Intel saw a slight increase, indicating some resilience in the semiconductor sector [3] - Airline stocks suffered greatly, with JetBlue down nearly 8% and major carriers like United and Delta dropping over 6%, primarily due to rising oil prices impacting operational costs [3] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.77%, with companies like Hesai and Li Auto experiencing declines of over 6% and 4% respectively, attributed to financial scrutiny and competitive pressures in the EV market [4] - Internet companies such as Tencent Music and Bilibili also faced declines due to SEC delisting threats and regulatory tensions between the U.S. and China [4] Bond Market - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 5.9 basis points to 4.3869%, reflecting mixed investor sentiment amid geopolitical tensions and concerns over rising oil prices potentially increasing inflation [4] - The two-year Treasury yield also fell but exhibited significant volatility, indicating uncertainty regarding short-term economic conditions [4] Commodities - Gold prices rose by 4% last week but have begun to retreat, with forecasts suggesting potential declines below $3,000 in the coming quarters, while silver prices increased by 2.2% due to its industrial demand [5] - Crude oil prices surged over 4% as Middle Eastern conflicts disrupted supply chains, with expectations of continued high prices due to potential U.S. intervention [5] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in its upcoming policy decision, with market participants closely watching for signals from Powell regarding inflation control and potential rate cuts [5] - The overall market sentiment is heavily influenced by geopolitical developments and Federal Reserve policies, with a focus on companies with stable cash flows and minimal geopolitical exposure for long-term investments [5]

6月17日国际原油价格盘中上涨。截至当日14时，WTI 7月原油期货报每桶72.18美元，上涨0.41美元。 伦敦布伦特8月原油期货报每桶73.70美元，上涨0.47美元。 受伊朗与以色列爆发冲突影响，国际油价在6月13日应声上涨，至今一直持续保持高位运行态势。 隆众资讯原油分析师李彦对《中国经营报》记者表示："当前对油价影响比较大的主要是以色列和伊朗 之间的地缘冲突。"其认为，从2025年全年油价走势来看，整体趋势是看空的。 国际油价震荡 当地时间6月13日，伊朗与以色列爆发冲突。当天，国际油价应声上涨。其中，纽约商品交易所7月交货 的轻质原油期货价格收于每桶72.98美元，上涨4.94美元，涨幅7.26%；8月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货 价格收于每桶74.23美元，上涨4.87美元，涨幅7.02%。 记者了解到，伊朗是OPEC（石油输出国组织）第三大产油国，EIA（美国能源信息署）数据显示，5月 份伊朗的原油产量为3.35百万桶/日。同时，伊朗掌控着霍尔木兹海峡，该海峡是中东最重要的石油通 道，承担着全球近40%的石油出口供应。 李彦对记者表示："当前对油价影响比较大的主要是以色列和伊朗之间的地缘冲突。当前 ...

根据央视新闻和其他媒体的报道，6月14日晚，以色列军队的无人机对伊朗最大的天然气田——南帕尔斯天然气田进行了袭击，导致该天然气田的部分区域 发生了大规模火灾。以军对伊朗能源基础设施的打击，必将引起伊朗的强烈反击，这种相互的军事报复势必会使国际能源市场面临剧烈的动荡。因此，俄罗 斯的网友对此事表现出了异常的关注，尤其希望国际油价能迅速上涨。他们在讨论中，着重关注伊朗何时会对霍尔木兹海峡实施封锁，并列出了会促使伊朗 采取这一举动的三个条件： 其次，伊朗国内民众情绪的剧烈爆发。如果以色列对伊朗的轰炸继续无差别扩大，给伊朗的平民带来严重的伤亡、导致大量难民涌现，从而激起周边国家的 围堵局面。在这样一片愤怒的复仇情绪之下，对霍尔木兹海峡实施封锁的决定可能成為德黑兰转移矛盾、形成统一意见的唯一选择。 URGHU FOTHER FULLER FULLE IIII SGCU TFF pp 最后，在伊朗遭受窒息性制裁的情况下，其局势面临无路可退。当美国及其盟友加大对伊朗的制裁力度，严厉限制其石油出口，使得其经济几近崩溃时，德 黑兰可能会判断外交斡旋和常规的对抗手段已然失效。在这种情况下，封锁海峡将成为一种极端策略，旨在突破困境 ...