1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share major indices generally rose this week, with the exception of the Sci - Tech Innovation 50. The performance of the four stock index futures was differentiated, and large - cap blue - chip stocks were stronger than small and medium - cap stocks. The bond market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and it is recommended to wait for band - trading opportunities after clear policy signals. For commodities, the index is expected to strengthen, and it is recommended to buy on dips. For foreign exchange, it is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. - The improvement in trade relations and domestic policies on reducing over - capacity are expected to drive the commodity index to strengthen. The US dollar is supported in the short - term by non - farm data but may be suppressed in the long - term by the tax - cut bill. The euro is viewed with an oscillatory outlook due to short - term tariff uncertainties [6]. - The US employment market shows signs of slowing actual momentum, and the outcome of tariff negotiations is a key variable for the market. The eurozone economy has positive signs but may face short - term callback pressure, while the Japanese yen may be supported [10]. - China's manufacturing industry is moderately recovering, with the service industry driving the overall economic prosperity. There is still room for subsequent economic recovery [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations Stocks - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 1.54%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures rose 1.49%. A - share major indices generally rose, and the four stock index futures showed differentiated performance. The market was driven by the release of June PMI data on Monday and the news of the relaxation of Sino - US economic and trade restrictions on Friday afternoon. Market trading activity declined slightly compared with last week. It is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.03% this week, with a change of - 0.04BP. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.03%. The short - term Treasury bond futures were weak, and the long - term ones were strong. Given the current weak economic recovery and policy uncertainties, it is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index rose 0.36%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index rose 0.84%. The improvement in trade relations and domestic over - capacity reduction policies are expected to drive the commodity index to strengthen. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. Foreign Exchange - The euro against the US dollar rose 0.56%, and the euro against the US dollar 2509 contract rose 0.62%. The US dollar is supported in the short - term by non - farm data but may be suppressed in the long - term by the tax - cut bill. The eurozone inflation is cooling, and the economy is expected to be boosted, but it still faces short - term tariff uncertainties. It is recommended to be cautiously wait - and - see [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic News**: The Central Financial and Economic Commission held its sixth meeting to study issues such as the in - depth promotion of the national unified market and high - quality development of the marine economy. The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee reviewed the "Regulations on the Work of the Party Central Committee's Decision - Making and Coordination Institutions". Three departments issued tax - incentive policies for overseas investors' direct investment with distributed profits. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued all the 800 billion yuan "two - major" construction project lists for this year [14]. - **International News**: Trump criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates. The International Settlement Bank warned that US inflation may return. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July is low. Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. The EU and the US are in the final stage of trade - agreement negotiations [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: In June, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.7, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5, and the composite PMI was 50.7. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 137.53 billion yuan this week [6][11][19]. - **US**: In June, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, the ADP employment number was - 33,000, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, and the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls were 147,000 [17]. - **EU**: In June, the eurozone manufacturing PMI final value was 49.5, the CPI annual rate initial value was 2%, and the May unemployment rate was 6.3% [17]. - **Other Countries**: The UK's Q1 GDP annual rate final value was 1.3%, Germany's June CPI monthly rate initial value was 0, and France's June manufacturing PMI final value was 48.1 [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data to be released include Germany's May seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate, the eurozone's May retail sales monthly rate, Japan's May trade balance, China's June CPI and PPI annual rates, and the US's May wholesale sales monthly rate, among others [84].

据环球网消息，7月2日，路透社消息称美国政府撤销对华乙烷出口限制，8艘滞留船只驶往中国，中美 贸易现新动向。这事得从6月说起。当时美国商务部限制美企对华出口乙烷，导致6月美对华出口量直接 归零，8艘装满乙烷的船只能在墨西哥湾漂着，美国企业急得不行，到处找别的买家。可数据摆在那， 中国一直是美国乙烷的大市场，之前中国进口的美国乙烷占其出口量的一半，5月份美国还每天向中国 出口25.7万桶呢。 现在限制一解除，船马上就往中国开，这说明啥？说明美国企业根本离不开中国市场。不只是乙烷，美 国还宣布不再限制对华出口芯片设计软件，西门子接到通知后第一时间就恢复了中国客户的权限。之前 中美在稀土出口问题上也达成了一致，美国相应取消了一系列对华限制措施。这些动作可不多见，要知 道以前美国尤其是特朗普时期，对华态度可强硬了，老喜欢挥舞关税大棒，觉得这样就能让中国让步。 特朗普在美国国会大厦（资料图） 但事实是，中国不仅扛住了压力，还让美国自己调整了政策。从这能看出几个变化。首先，中国这波应 对得漂亮。美国以为加关税就能让中国妥协，结果中国没屈服，反而让美国不得不取消限制。这就像给 美国上了一课，让他们明白得好好和中国打交道。其 ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来 源： 内容来自半导体芯闻综合 。 美国取消了对中国芯片设计软件开发商和乙烷生产商的出口限制，这进一步表明中美贸易紧张局势 正在缓和，包括北京在稀土问题上做出让步。 "随着美国和中国继续遵守这项框架协议，我们将看到很多限制措施取消。回到二月/三月的现 状，"这位未获授权对媒体发言并拒绝透露姓名的消息人士表示。 西门子在一份声明中表示，在最近收到美国商务部关于不再对中国客户实施出口管制限制的通知 后，该公司已恢复对中国客户的销售和支持。 新思科技表示，公司于 7 月 2 日收到美国商务部工业与安全局来函，通知基于 2025 年 5 月 29 日收到的限制令所实施的对华出口管制措施现予以撤销，即时生效。公司正恢复近期受限产品在中 国市场的供应和全面客户支持。 Cadence也表示，美国已取消对中国芯片设计软件的出口限制，并正在恢复受影响客户对软件和技 术的访问。 据路透社看到的公司致员工的一封信显示，新思科技预计将在三个工作日内完成系统更新，以恢复 中国客户的访问和支持。 包括新思科技、Cadence设计系统公司和西门子在内的全球三大电子设计自动化 (EDA) 软件开发 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report, July 2, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,820 with a gain of 65, trading volume of 53,324 (up 7,010), and open interest of 193,529 (up 2,882) [3] - CF05 contract closed at 13,805 with a gain of 60, trading volume of 945 (down 342), and open interest of 8,232 (up 222) [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13,805 with a gain of 60, trading volume of 182,581 (down 6,222), and open interest of 560,465 (down 2,771) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 20,085 with a loss of 75, trading volume of 2 (up 2), and open interest of 79 (unchanged) [3] - CY05 contract closed at 20,090 with a gain of 40, trading volume of 2 (up 2), and open interest of 2 (unchanged) [3] - CY09 contract closed at 20,075 with a gain of 30, trading volume of 7,387 (up 52), and open interest of 22,405 (up 382) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was priced at 15,163 yuan/ton, up 9 [3] - Cot A was priced at 78.90 cents/pound, down 1.25 [3] - FC Index:M: CIF was priced at 77.44, down 1.08 [3] - Polyester staple fiber was priced at 7,450 yuan/ton, up 70 [3] - Viscose staple fiber was priced at 12,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 15 (up 5), 5 - 9 spread was 0 (unchanged), 9 - 1 spread was - 15 (down 5) [3] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 5 (down 115), 5 - 9 spread was 15 (up 10), 9 - 1 spread was - 10 (up 105) [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6,265 (down 140), CY05 - CF05 was 6,285 (down 20), CY09 - CF09 was 6,270 (down 30) [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff cotton spread was 1,221 (up 169), sliding - scale tariff cotton spread was 582 (up 96), domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1,505 (down 663) [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of June 23, 2025, India's cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season was 5.466 million hectares, 531,000 hectares lower than the same period last year, with a planting target of 12.95 million hectares [6] - CAI's latest report shows that as of May 31, 2025, compared with last month's assessment, India's 2024/25 cotton balance sheet had an output increase of 170,000 tons, import increase of 100,000 tons, demand decrease of 30,000 tons, export increase of 30,000 tons, and ending inventory increase of 270,000 tons [6] - As of June 29, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 95%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average; the squaring rate was 40%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and 3 percentage points faster than the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 9%, the same as last year and the five - year average; the good - to - excellent rate was 51%, 1 percentage point higher than last year and 4 percentage points higher than the five - year average [7] Trading Logic - Macro - level uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries bring uncertainties to cotton prices. If the US eases its attitude towards China, it may be bullish for cotton prices [8] - On the cotton fundamentals side, China's current low commercial cotton inventory may lead to a supply - tight situation before the new cotton harvest if the current de - stocking rate continues, which could make cotton prices oscillate slightly stronger [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [9] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10] - Options: Sell put options [11] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The pure - cotton yarn market remains weak, with downstream buyers adopting a wait - and - see attitude due to large cotton price fluctuations. Spinning mills are suffering losses, inventory is accumulating, and production cuts are increasing. Short - term yarn prices are expected to be stable or slightly decline [11] - The all - cotton grey fabric market is in the off - season, with small domestic orders. Weaving mills lack confidence in price increases, and the market is expected to remain weak in July [13] Group 4: Options Option Data - On July 2, 2025, the CF509C13800.CZC option had a closing price of 198, a gain of 88.6%, an implied volatility of 9.9%, and other relevant option Greeks [14] - The CF509P13600.CZC option had a closing price of 103, a loss of 34.8%, an implied volatility of 9.9%, and relevant Greeks [14] - The CF509P13000.CZC option had a closing price of 21, a loss of 81.6%, an implied volatility of 12.3%, and relevant Greeks [14] Volatility and Strategy - The 30 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly. The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.9445, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.5684, with both call and put trading volumes decreasing. The option strategy is to sell put options [14][15][16] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes graphs such as the 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton price spread, cotton basis for January, May, and September, CY - CF spreads, and CF inter - month spreads [16][20][21]

Group 1 - The core of the article discusses the evolving dynamics of US-China relations, particularly focusing on the negotiations surrounding rare earth elements and trade agreements [1][2][3] - The US Secretary of Commerce, Lutnick, indicated that the US would lift tariffs if China removes restrictions on rare earth exports, highlighting the interdependence of both nations [2][11] - A recent high-level phone call between Trump and Chinese officials suggested a willingness to resolve issues such as student visas and reaffirmed the one-China policy, setting the stage for further negotiations [3][6] Group 2 - China has announced significant technological advancements in rare earth applications, particularly in the development of a rare earth permanent magnet motor system for hypersonic aircraft, showcasing its innovation capabilities [5][24] - The agreement reached in Geneva in June 2025 includes provisions for stable rare earth supply from China to the US, with the first shipment expected in July 2025, and outlines tariff reductions and sanctions suspension [9][11][13] - The article emphasizes that while the agreement provides temporary relief for the US, it does not fundamentally alter the US's reliance on Chinese rare earths, which remains a critical vulnerability for its military-industrial complex [22][20] Group 3 - The strategic importance of rare earth elements is underscored as both a bargaining chip and a technological advantage for China, which is leveraging its resources to enhance its military capabilities [19][26] - The article contrasts the immediate transactional approach of the US with China's long-term strategy of maintaining control over rare earth resources, suggesting a deeper, ongoing competition [26][17] - The development of advanced technologies utilizing rare earths positions China not only as a supplier but also as a leader in military and aerospace innovation, potentially shifting the balance of power [24][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent proposal by U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham to impose a 500% tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil, particularly targeting China and India, highlighting the contradictory nature of U.S. foreign policy and its implications for international relations [3][7][15]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Proposal - The proposed legislation aims to pressure China and India to cease purchasing Russian oil by imposing exorbitant tariffs, reflecting a strategy to force these countries to align with U.S. interests [3][7]. - The U.S. has been criticized for its dual approach of supporting Ukraine while simultaneously engaging in trade practices that involve Russian oil, raising questions about its credibility [3][10]. Group 2: China's Oil Imports - In 2023, China imported over 120 million tons of oil from Russia, accounting for more than 20% of its total oil imports, indicating the strategic importance of this relationship for China's supply chain [7][10]. - China has diversified its oil imports, becoming the world's largest crude oil importer in 2023, with total imports exceeding 500 million tons from various regions, making it difficult for the U.S. to disrupt this cooperation through tariffs [10][11]. Group 3: Historical Context and Implications - The article references past instances of U.S. trade policy reversals, such as the 2018 trade war and the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan, suggesting a pattern of inconsistent U.S. foreign policy that undermines international trust [9][15]. - The potential approval of the 500% tariff could signify a significant shift in U.S.-China relations, moving beyond trade disagreements to a more confrontational stance [15][16].

今天郑棉继续上涨，国内棉花成交一般，基差稳中偏强。纯棉纱成交依旧偏清谈，下游需求仍旧不足，市场交投不佳,下游订 单仍然不佳。截至6月15号，棉花商业库存为312.69万吨，较5丹底减少33.18万吨，消化仍然良好，棉花库存仍存偏紧预期。国 内5月进口4万吨，创近10年新低，同比降22万吨，环比降2万吨。进口持续偏少，也导致国产棉消化进度偏快，虽然库存偏低给 与价格支撑，但需求持续偏弱，再加上中美贸易关系仍不明朗，短期高度或仍然受限。操作上暂时观望或逢低做多为主。 (白糖) | 《八 国控期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月26日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Report Date: June 25, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 closed at 13,625 with a gain of 40, volume of 47,727 (down 5,162), and open interest of 168,678 (up 5,130) [3] - CF05 closed at 13,605 with a gain of 50, volume of 943 (up 265), and open interest of 5,983 (up 264) [3] - CF09 closed at 13,645 with a gain of 35, volume of 234,985 (down 9,877), and open interest of 560,112 (up 18,170) [3] - CY01 closed at 19,990 with a gain of 120, volume of 13 (up 9), and open interest of 46 (up 7) [3] - CY05 closed at 20,055 with a gain of 1,505, volume of 1 (up 1), and open interest of 1 (up 1) [3] - CY09 closed at 19,995 with a gain of 90, volume of 9,169 (up 1,363), and open interest of 21,920 (up 576) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was at 14,938 yuan/ton, up 44 [3] - Cot A was at 78.40 cents/pound, up 0.85 [3] - FC Index:M: to - port price was at 76.55, up 0.73 [3] - CY IndexC32S was at 20,300, down 770 [3] - FCY IndexC33S was at 21,928, up 59 [3] - Indian S - 6 was at 54,000, unchanged [3] - Polyester staple fiber was at 7,450, up 70 [3] - Pure polyester yarn T32S was at 11,200, down 50 [3] - Viscose staple fiber was at 12,600, unchanged [3] - Viscose yarn R30S was at 17,250, unchanged [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 20 (down 10), 5 - 9 spread was - 40 (up 15), 9 - 1 spread was 20 (down 5) [3] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 65 (down 1,385), 5 - 9 spread was 60 (up 1,415), 9 - 1 spread was 5 (down 30) [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,365 (up 80), CY05 - CF05 spread was 6,450 (up 1,455), CY09 - CF09 spread was 6,350 (up 55) [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,050 (down 93), domestic - foreign cotton yarn spread was - 1,628 (down 829) [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of June 16, 2025, the cotton planting area in India for the 2025/26 season was 3.125 million hectares, 214,000 hectares higher than the same period last year [6] - As of the week ending June 22, 2025, India's weekly cotton market volume was 174,000 tons, a 501% year - on - year increase; the cumulative market volume for the 2024/25 season was 4.9075 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease [6] - As of June 23, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 40,100 tons, a 0.21% year - on - year decrease [7] Trading Logic - Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries bring uncertainties to cotton prices; if the US eases its attitude towards China, it could be positive for cotton prices [8] - With China's current low commercial cotton inventory, if the destocking speed remains the same, the market may price in the expected tight supply before the new cotton harvest, leading to a slightly bullish and volatile cotton market [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to be slightly bullish and volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - After the recent rise in cotton prices, the pure cotton yarn market remained quiet with light trading and stable prices due to poor downstream orders and low procurement enthusiasm [9] - The overall market for all - cotton grey fabrics remained sluggish, with no improvement in orders and most weavers pessimistic about the future; some expected inventory to increase in July [9] Group 4: Options Option Contracts - On June 25, 2025, CF509C13400.CZC closed at 340, up 49.8%, with an implied volatility of 9.3% [11] - CF509P12600.CZC closed at 18, down 30.8%, with an implied volatility of 13.6% [11] - CF509P12200.CZC closed at 13, down 13.3%, with an implied volatility of 16.8% [11] Volatility - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.3355, slightly lower than the previous day [11] Option Strategy - The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.9324, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.5796, with an increase in both call and put trading volumes [12] - Option strategy: Wait and see [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton price spread, cotton January basis, cotton May basis, cotton September basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [14][21][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core Viewpoints - The TC negotiation remains unresolved, and the overall processing fee is still low. Scrap copper enterprises expect future supply to tighten due to the reverse invoicing policy, but the demand outlook is not optimistic. With a supply - demand imbalance and changeable macro - factors, the precious metal attribute of copper may be highlighted. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range for the Cu2507 contract at 77,400 - 78,000 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On June 24, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,340 yuan/ton and closed at 78,640 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 78,410 yuan/ton and closed at 78,470 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - On the previous day, the procurement and sales sentiment improved. Due to inventory clearance by holders at low prices, the premium continued to decline, and some low - price goods were sold at a discount. The expected premium may continue to fall today [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The Fed has internal differences on interest - rate cuts. Geopolitically, Trump made statements about the Israel - Iran cease - fire and the US - Iran situation. China conducted 300 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on June 25 [3]. - **Mine End**: AIC Mines signed a $40 million prepayment loan and purchase agreement with Trafigura. BHP signed four long - term contracts worth about A$1.5 billion with Aurizon [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: Ningbo Jin Tian Copper imported over 5,000 tons of copper from the DRC this year, with expected increased imports in the second half. China's May scrap copper imports decreased, and Thailand became the largest supplier [5]. - **Consumption**: Jiangxi Tongying New Materials plans to invest 20 million yuan in a 10,000 - ton copper deep - processing project [6]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 3,325 tons to 94,675 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 3,103 tons to 22,425 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased by 16,300 tons to 129,600 tons [7]. Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish, recommend buying on dips for hedging in the range of 77,400 - 78,000 yuan/ton for the Cu2507 contract [8]. - **Arbitrage**: On hold - **Options**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton

| /// > 国経期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月24日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | なな女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉大幅下跌，价格突破了前期窄幅震荡的区间,基本面暂无新的变化。国内棉花成交一般,基差稳中偏强。纯棉纱成交 依旧偏清淡,下游需求仍旧不足，市场交投不佳,纺企走货缓慢。截至6月15号,棉花商业库存为312.69万吨,较5月底减少 33.18万吨，消化仍然良好，棉花库存仍存偏紧预期。国内5月进口4万吨，创近10年新低，同比降22万吨，环比降2万 ...