（来源：券研社） 以下内容节选自大摩最新闭门会： 来源：市场资讯 当前中美贸易关系处于 "微妙的脆弱平衡"，但市场对潜在风险的定价明显不足，整体情绪过于乐观， 与地缘政治风险实际升级的态势脱节，未来存在显著调整空间。 一是科技领域实现自主可控的企业，能更好应对技术封锁风险； 二是有盈利基本面支撑的企业，具备更强的抗风险能力； 三是符合反内卷主题的企业，能在复杂市场环境中保持稳定发展。 同时，需密切关注局势恶化的关键信号，如中美双方公布报复措施具体实施细节、会面可能取消的信 息、美国将更多中国公司列入实体清单等，一旦出现这些信号，需及时调整投资组合，应对市场可能的 大幅调整。 下行情景一的风险：双方的限制措施可能被付诸实施，即便只是暂时性的，也会对市场造成一定 冲击。中国新的稀土出口管制已扩大范围、严控转口贸易且明确指向芯片领域，虽为 "出口管制" 而非 "出口禁令"，但出口许可证审批流程显著收紧，对相关产业的影响已逐步显现，而市场尚未 充分消化这一变化。 下行情景二的风险：若限制措施成为持久性政策，将导致双方在关键领域供应链出现实质性 "脱 钩"，对全球经济及中国股市造成深远影响。美国正联合盟友重建稀土供应链 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: None - **Hold (★★☆)**: None - **Watch (★☆☆)**: Corn, Hog, Egg - **Sell (White Star)**: Soybean, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policies, and trade relations. Overall, the market is complex and volatile, and investors need to pay close attention to policy and fundamental changes [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybean - Domestic soybeans rose and then fell, with all 44,835 tons of state reserve auctions today going unsold at a reserve price of 3,900 yuan/ton, and the demand for transactions has deteriorated. The market is still worried about the export demand of US soybeans, and China has not yet purchased the new US soybean crop. US soybean prices are expected to be pressured by the demand side [2] Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal, M2601, slightly increased positions and declined. Currently, the arrival volume of domestic soybeans is large, and inventories are sufficient. Overall, the supply in the fourth quarter is generally not a problem. If Sino-US trade relations continue to deteriorate and the time is prolonged, the overall supply in the first quarter of next year may tighten. The soybean meal market is currently affected by domestic and foreign policies and is fluctuating weakly. It is recommended to continue to wait and see [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Weak global crude oil prices and uncertainties in Sino-US trade are pressuring risk assets, and there is a need to be cautious about the potential drag on vegetable oils. The near-term demand for palm oil in the international market is weak, but the Indonesian market gives an expectation of a further increase in the biodiesel blending ratio in the long term. The palm oil market has resilience as it enters the production reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. Domestic soybean oil is in a state of high inventory due to supply exceeding demand. In the context of the continued growth of the global biodiesel trend and the demand risks faced by US soybeans, it is expected that oils will be more resilient, and oils will be stronger than meals. In the medium and long term, it is expected that oils will still have resilience, and investors should wait for the price to find a bottom and then go long at low prices [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market fluctuated little today. Overall, the external oilseed market lacks guidance from USDA data, and there are also risks of uncertain economic and trade relations at the macro level. The Sino-Canadian agricultural product trade relationship is difficult to ease before Canada changes its tariff policy. An oil company will hold a special two-way bidding and trading session for rapeseed oil purchases and sales on October 17, involving 18,230 tons of rapeseed oil. The domestic rapeseed market is still in a state of inventory reduction, but the inventory reduction is expected to be slow. Overall, the driving force for a single side is not significant, and it is expected that the rapeseed futures price will fluctuate in the short term [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures continued to rebound from the bottom today. The Huanghuaihai corn producing area is continuing to rush to harvest and dry the corn. The price of corn in Northeast China has declined, but the range is narrowing. The volume of corn arriving at Shandong's spot market has decreased to less than 1,000 tons, and the price is weakly stable. The opening price of corn in Northeast China has declined from a high level, but some state reserve depots in Heilongjiang have started to purchase at around 2,000 yuan/ton for 14% moisture corn, which currently has little impact on the market. The volume of new corn coming onto the market in Northeast China will continue to increase in the next two weeks. Currently, corn is still weak at the bottom, but the phased bottom is getting closer [7] Hog - Except for the November contract, other hog futures contracts hit new lows, with a total increase in positions of 15,000 lots. The spot price rebounded and exceeded 11 yuan/kg, mainly affected by factors such as second-round fattening, reluctance to sell, and increased slaughter volume. The current average spot price is in the range of 10 - 11 yuan/kg, which is at the bottom of the historical hog cycle. However, from a fundamental perspective, there are no obvious bullish factors, and the monthly output of large-scale enterprises is expected to continue to increase in October. Currently, the profits of the entire industry chain have turned negative, and the inventory of breeding sows decreased in September. In the medium term, this will support the contracts for the second half of next year [8] Egg - The spot price of eggs generally increased, with a relatively large increase in some areas. The futures generally closed down, with a total increase in positions of 20,000 lots, and the contracts for February, March, and April next year hit new lows. The short-term spot sales are relatively fast due to low prices, resulting in a short-term rebound. The egg price is at the cash flow balance or loss state, and the culling of old hens is still slow. There is a risk of further decline in the egg price in the medium term [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a volatile consolidation. Domestic palm oil futures may follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil after a short - term shock or filling the gap. - Due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and government shutdowns, soybean oil futures are in a narrow - range shock adjustment. Before the Spring Festival stocking, domestic demand won't increase significantly, but cost - end support and poor theoretical crushing profits of Brazilian soybeans will support the market [1]. 2.2 Meal - Brazilian new - crop soybean sowing is going smoothly, with sufficient domestic soybean and meal supply. Spot prices are expected to remain weak this year. If no US soybeans are purchased, the M2601 contract has support in the 2900 - 2950 range, and the 1 - 5 positive spread may have opportunities [3]. 2.3 Livestock (Pigs) - Although the pressure on pig prices has eased recently, the supply pressure will continue to be released in the fourth quarter. Spot prices are expected to face pressure until the first half of next year. The trading strategy is to short on rallies and hold LH1 - 5 and LH3 - 7 reverse spreads [6]. 2.4 Sugar - Affected by supply expectations, the raw sugar price remains bearish. The domestic sugar price is expected to remain in a bottom - range shock due to factors such as typhoon impacts on sugarcane growth and a slight recovery in downstream demand [9][10]. 2.5 Corn - The supply of corn is strong while the demand is weak. Although the futures price has rebounded slightly, the price is still expected to be weak in the short term [13]. 2.6 Cotton - The new cotton cost provides some support for the futures price, but the downstream demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to face pressure when rising [17]. 2.7 Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient and in excess, and the demand is weak after the festival. The egg market is expected to decline in a volatile manner in the short term without obvious positive factors [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On October 15, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8520 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8525 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. The basis decreased by 13.55%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 3.34% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On October 15, the spot price in Guangdong was 9280 yuan/ton, down 0.86%. The futures price of P2601 was 9330 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The basis decreased by 144.00%, the import cost decreased by 0.12%, and the import profit increased by 0.91%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On October 15, the spot price in Jiangsu was 10180 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. The futures price of OI601 was down 0.27%. The basis decreased by 1.36%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean - palm oil spot spread increased by 6.85%, and the 2601 spread increased by 1.33%. The rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread remained unchanged, and the 2601 spread decreased by 2.27% [1]. 3.2 Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained at 2930 yuan/ton; the futures price of M2601 was 2917 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The basis decreased by 53.57%, the import crushing profit of Argentine soybeans in December decreased by 26.7%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 5.0% [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2440 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2357 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The basis increased by 1.22%, the import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed in November decreased by 8.64%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [3]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed meal 01 - 05 spread increased by 3.51%, the oil - meal ratio of the main contract decreased by 0.37%, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread decreased by 2.00% [3]. 3.3 Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The basis of the main contract increased by 14.95%, the price of the 2511 contract decreased by 0.44%, the price of the 2601 contract decreased by 1.69%, and the 11 - 1 spread increased by 16.75%. The main - contract positions decreased by 7.91%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [6]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, and other regions increased, while those in Henan and Hunan remained unchanged [6]. - **Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume increased by 1.56%, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 2.16%, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 105.30%, and the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 27.25%. The monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 0.10% [6]. 3.4 Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract increased by 0.11%, the price of the 2605 contract increased by 0.02%, the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 1.26%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 18.52%. The main - contract positions increased by 2.61%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.59% [9]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased. The Brazilian in - quota and out - of - quota import sugar prices increased, and the spreads between imported Brazilian sugar and Nanning spot sugar increased [9]. - **Industry Indicators**: The national sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, the industrial inventory increased, and the sugar import volume increased by 160.00% [9]. 3.5 Corn - **Corn**: The Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price remained unchanged, the basis decreased by 21.62%, the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 19.15%, the Shekou bulk grain price increased by 1.30%, the north - south trade profit increased by 30.30%, the import profit increased by 9.31%, and the number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants decreased by 16.00%. The positions increased by 2.39%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [12]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the 2511 contract increased by 0.67%, the Changchun and Weifang spot prices remained unchanged, the basis decreased by 12.80%, the 11 - 3 spread increased by 8.11%, the starch - corn futures spread increased by 2.74%, the Shandong starch profit increased by 36.84%. The positions increased by 0.50%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [13]. 3.6 Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2605 contract increased by 0.08%, the price of the 2601 contract increased by 0.04%, the ICE US cotton main contract increased by 0.63%, and the 5 - 1 spread increased by 9.09%. The main - contract positions increased by 2.27%, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.77%, and the valid forecast increased by 84.62% [17]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index decreased, the FC Index decreased slightly, and the spreads between spot and futures contracts decreased [17]. - **Industry Indicators**: Commercial and industrial inventories decreased, the import volume increased by 40.0%, the bonded - area inventory increased by 1.4%, the inventory days of yarn and grey cloth decreased, the cotton outbound shipment volume increased by 22.6%, the textile enterprise processing profit increased by 5.0%, and the retail and export data of the textile and apparel industry changed [17]. 3.7 Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 11 contract increased by 0.11%, the price of the 01 contract decreased by 1.02%, the basis increased by - 52.26%, and the 11 - 01 spread increased by - 9.35% [20]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price increased by 0.76%, the egg - chick price remained unchanged, the culled - hen price decreased by 3.88%, the egg - feed ratio decreased by 11.31%, and the breeding profit was in a loss state [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire black building materials sector is "Oscillation" [6]. - Specific varieties' ratings are as follows: - Steel: Oscillation [8] - Iron ore: Oscillation [9] - Scrap steel: Oscillation [10] - Coke: Oscillation [11] - Coking coal: Oscillation [12] - Glass: Oscillation [12] - Soda ash: Oscillation [14] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [15] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [16] 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the industrial side of the black building materials sector is difficult to show improvement, and the fundamentals lack upward drivers. The inventory of steel failed to decline, coal mine supply recovered, and the destocking of upstream inventory slowed down. The "anti - involution" expectation has not strengthened, and the market's expectation of negative feedback in the industrial chain has increased, leading to a decline in futures prices [1][2]. - In the second half of October, both overseas macro factors and domestic key meetings are expected to improve market confidence again, which may provide phased support for the prices of sector varieties [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - The fundamentals of the sector lack upward drivers after the holiday. The steel inventory accumulation is obvious, and the market sentiment is weak. However, there are still positive factors in the second half of October, such as macro - level support [1][2][6]. 3.2 Specific Varieties Analysis 3.2.1 Steel - Core logic: The spot market trading is weak, with low speculative willingness. Blast furnace profits are shrinking, iron - water production is decreasing from a high level, and electric - furnace profits are still poor. Although some electric furnaces resumed production after the holiday, the overall steel supply is still at a relatively high level. After the National Day, demand recovered to a limited extent, and high supply led to significant inventory accumulation, with the current inventory at a moderately high level [8]. - Outlook: In the short term, the steel price on the disk is under pressure. However, due to the uncertainty of Sino - US relations and the possibility of positive signals from the important meeting at the end of October, and the difficulty of a trend - like decline in the cost side under the high - iron - water background, the downward space of the disk is limited [8]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - Core logic: The spot market quotation decreased, and the market sentiment was weak. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. The exemption of special port dues for ships built in China eased market concerns. The sample daily average iron - water output decreased slightly, and the steel - mill profitability rate continued to decline slightly, but iron - water was still at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The port inventory increased due to the significant increase in arrivals, and the steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased [8]. - Outlook: The rigid demand for iron ore is still supported, and the short - term supply is generally stable. There are still macro - level disturbances before the important meeting, but the general performance of building materials demand during the peak season and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations limit the upward space of iron ore prices. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [9]. 3.2.3 Scrap Steel - Core logic: The supply of scrap steel increased this week, reaching a relatively high level in the same period. The price of finished products is under pressure, electric - furnace valley - electricity profits are negative, but the daily consumption of scrap steel increased slightly after some electric furnaces resumed production. The long - process daily consumption of scrap steel decreased due to the slight decline in iron - water production last week, and the overall daily consumption of 255 steel mills decreased. The inventory decreased slightly during the holiday as steel enterprises consumed inventory [10]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of scrap steel have weakened marginally. With the pressure on finished - product prices and poor electric - furnace profits, it is expected that the price will follow the trend of finished products in the short term [10]. 3.2.4 Coke - Core logic: On the futures side, the disk followed coking coal to oscillate. On the spot side, the price at Rizhao Port increased. The coking profit is under pressure, and the supply is temporarily stable. The steel - mill maintenance increased, and iron - water decreased slightly but remained at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The steel mills mainly purchased for rigid demand, and the coking enterprises accumulated a small amount of inventory, but the overall inventory was still at a low level [11]. - Outlook: As the peak season is coming to an end, but there is no expectation of a significant decline in iron - water, the rigid demand support is good. The coking profit is under pressure, and the supply is difficult to increase significantly. The downstream restocking has weakened, but the fundamentals are healthy in the short term. The coking - coal auction price is rising, but the steel price is still weak. Under the game between coking and steel enterprises, the coke price is temporarily in a stalemate. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the future [11]. 3.2.5 Coking Coal - Core logic: On the futures side, the strengthening of thermal coal drove the coking - coal market sentiment, and the disk oscillated. On the spot side, the prices remained stable. The supply of domestic coal mines has basically recovered to the pre - holiday level, and the supply is temporarily stable. The customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port has recovered to over 1200 vehicles, but the external transfer was stopped on the afternoon of October 14th and is expected to resume today. The coke production decreased slightly, and the rigid demand support still exists. The downstream coking enterprises mainly purchased for rigid demand, and the upstream coal mines accumulated a small amount of inventory, but the overall inventory was still at a low level. The coking - coal auction prices showed an upward trend [11]. - Outlook: In the future, it is difficult for coal mine production to increase significantly. The supply of Mongolian coal at the port is still tight, and it will take time for imports to recover. The coke production can still remain at a high level in the short term. The contradictions in the coking - coal fundamentals are not prominent, and the positive market sentiment driven by the strong performance of thermal coal is expected to keep the price oscillating [12]. 3.2.6 Glass - Core logic: After the holiday, the spot sales and production were weak. The macro environment is neutral, and the supply side has limited changes. The rigid demand is still in the peak season, but the intermediate inventory is large, and the downstream inventory is moderately high, with limited restocking ability. The upstream is under pressure to accumulate inventory and reduce prices, and the overall period - spot price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, the price shows an oscillating and weakening trend after the period - spot negative feedback. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [12]. 3.2.7 Soda Ash - Core logic: The domestic important meeting is approaching, and the macro environment is neutral. The daily production is 10.6 tons, and the overall production is moderately high. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand is stable and improving. The downstream procurement of light soda ash has slowed down, and the apparent demand has weakened significantly. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is expected that the upstream will show inventory accumulation this week. The industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern has not changed. It is expected to oscillate widely following macro changes in the future. In the long term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [14]. 3.2.8 Manganese Silicon - Core logic: The peak season of terminal steel demand is not prosperous, and the black sector is under pressure. The manganese - silicon disk failed to rise strongly, and the futures price rose and then fell. The market is waiting for the steel procurement price. The cost of manganese ore is weakly stable, the demand is still resilient, but the production is still at a high level, and the difficulty of destocking is increasing [15]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, the peak - demand season, and policy expectations support the price, but the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still downward space for the price center of manganese silicon after the peak season. Attention should be paid to the decline range of raw - material costs [15]. 3.2.9 Ferrosilicon - Core logic: The performance of terminal steel demand in the peak season is weak, and the prices of black - chain varieties are under pressure. The ferrosilicon disk rose and then fell, and the price center is still at a low level. The market is waiting for the final steel - procurement price. The supply is at a high level, and the pressure of market supply is accumulating, making it more difficult to destock in the future. The demand from steel mills is still resilient, but the magnesium - ingot price is weak [16]. - Outlook: In the short term, the peak - demand season, policy expectations, and firm costs support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season. Attention should be paid to the reduction of electricity costs in the main production areas [16]. 3.3 Index Information - The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on October 15, 2025: The commodity index was 2232.58, up 0.41%; the commodity 20 index was 2533.12, up 0.57%; the industrial products index was 2189.17, down 0.09% [101]. - The steel industry chain index on October 15, 2025: The index was 1960.22, with a daily decline of 0.68%, a decline of 1.68% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.14% in the past month, and a decline of 7.02% since the beginning of the year [102].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is dated October 16, 2025, and is from Shenyin Wanguo Futures Research Institute [1] - It analyzes economic data, including CPI, PPI, and financial statistics, and provides comments on key commodities and market trends [1][6][7] Group 2: Economic Data - In September 2025, CPI环比 rose 0.1% and同比 fell 0.3%, while core CPI同比 rose 1.0% with the increase expanding for the 5th consecutive month; PPI环比 remained flat and同比 fell 2.3% with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points [1][6] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale reached 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 22.71 trillion yuan [1][7] - At the end of September, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year; M2同比 grew 8.4%, 1.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year [7] Group 3: Key Commodities Precious Metals - Gold continued to strengthen, with the international gold price reaching $4200 per ounce. Factors such as the Fed's possible pause in balance - sheet reduction, trade war concerns, and central bank gold - buying supported the rise, but there may be adjustments due to accumulated profit positions [2][19] Copper - Copper prices closed lower at night. The supply of concentrates remained tight, but smelting output continued to grow. An Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap and support copper prices in the long term [2][20] Crude Oil - SC crude oil fell 0.7% at night. A cease - fire agreement in Gaza was signed, and OPEC expected an increase in global oil demand, but short - term prices showed a downward trend [3][13] Group 4: Market Outlook Financial - Stock indices are likely to maintain a bullish trend, with a possible shift in market style towards value in the fourth quarter. Domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and external funds may flow in [10][11] - Treasury bonds may be slightly bearish in the short term, but the domestic central bank may implement more relaxed monetary policies, providing support for bond prices [12] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices may break down in the short term [13] - Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term, with increased开工 load and rising inventory [14] - Rubber is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with supply pressure likely to increase and demand support being limited [15][16] - Polyolefin prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations, with a possible slowdown in the decline after continuous drops [17] - Glass and soda ash markets are cautious, with expectations of potential supply changes in the glass industry but ongoing inventory digestion [18] Metals - Precious metals may face adjustments after a rapid rise [19] - Copper prices may be supported in the long term by supply - demand changes [20] - Zinc prices may be weaker in the domestic market compared to overseas, and they tend to follow copper prices [22] - Carbonate lithium is in a destocking state, and prices are supported, with limited volatility [23] Black Metals - Coking coal and coke may experience increased short - term fluctuations due to high steel production, inventory, and trade frictions [24] - Iron ore is expected to be bullish with strong demand and reduced global shipments [25] - Steel market supply - demand contradictions are not significant, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar in the medium term [26] Agricultural Products - Protein meal prices are affected by trade tensions and USDA report delays, with short - term pressure on domestic prices [27][28] - Edible oil prices may be pressured in the short term but supported in the long term by production and policy factors [29] - Sugar prices are expected to be weak in the domestic market and may fluctuate in the international market [30] - Cotton prices are expected to be weak in the short term due to supply and demand factors [31] Shipping Index - The container shipping European line is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with shipping companies' price - setting and market sentiment being key factors [32] Group 5: External Market Performance - On October 15, 2025, most major external market indices rose, including the S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures. The US dollar index fell, and gold and silver prices increased [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of soybean meal 2601, soybean oil 2601, and palm oil 2601 are all "oscillating weakly" [6]. - The market sentiment of the soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures is unstable, and the prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations, including potential tariff increases and negotiation uncertainties, combined with the contradiction between high near - month inventory and expected far - month supply gaps in the domestic market, have weakened the support for the futures price of the soybean meal 2601 contract. The market sentiment is volatile, leading to a short - term weakly oscillating price [5]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The continuous downward pressure on international oil prices has an overflow effect on the oil market. Meanwhile, the weakening of the palm oil industry chain exerts significant pressure on the market. The possible increase in Indonesia's palm oil export tax may affect market sentiment. Until the market sentiment recovers, the palm oil futures price will oscillate weakly [7]. - **Key Factors**: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Oil (not separately detailed in the text but included in the table) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans, the domestic supply has significant pressure with soybean inventories at the highest level in recent years. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. In the short - term, due to the US's tariff threats and no improvement in US soybean imports, prices will mainly fluctuate within a range [2][3]. - For oils, the low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, and the expected decline in exportable volumes from Indonesia due to increasing biodiesel consumption support the price center of oils. In the medium - term, a strategy of buying on dips can be considered when the inventories in consuming and producing areas are not fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback in demand. In the short - term, due to the impact of the trade war on market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see [5][7]. - For sugar, the sugar production data in the second half of September in the central - southern region of Brazil is bearish but in line with expectations. In the new 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, major northern hemisphere producers are expected to increase production. With the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil at a historical high, a bearish view is maintained, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [8][9]. - For cotton, due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade conflicts and weak demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, along with the expected high yield in the new season and strong selling hedging pressure, the short - term cotton price is likely to decline [11][12]. - For eggs, after the holiday, there are multiple bearish factors such as large supply, low consumption, and wet and cold weather. The current market sentiment is pessimistic, and egg prices have returned to the low point of the rainy season. In the short - term, a bearish strategy for near - term contracts is recommended. In the medium - term, prices may rebound due to stocking demand, and in the long - term, it is advisable to sell on rebounds [14][16]. - For pigs, in the fourth quarter, the theoretical supply pressure is large, and the current breeding profit has turned negative. The near - term futures premium is being squeezed out. However, considering the early price decline this year, risks before the Spring Festival have been partially released. It is recommended to reduce short positions in near - term contracts and consider positive spreads for the 13 - contract after the spot price stabilizes, while maintaining a reverse spread strategy for long - term contracts [17][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Protein Meals - **Market Information**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans fluctuated weakly due to concerns about Sino - US trade relations. On Wednesday, the domestic soybean meal spot price rose by 10 yuan/ton, with the price in East China at around 2910 yuan/ton. The soybean meal inventory continued to decline as the soybean arrival at ports was large and the operating rate during the National Day holiday decreased. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week would be 2.1674 million tons. The IBGE's October monthly report showed that the expected total soybean planting area in Brazil this year is 47.7 million hectares, an increase of 0.1% from last month's forecast and 3.6% from last year [2]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, sell on rebounds; in the short - term, expect range - bound fluctuations [3]. Oils - **Market Information**: From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared to the same period last month, and the exports in the first 15 days increased by 12.3% - 16.2%. In September, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.639743 million tons, slightly lower than in August. Indonesia plans to raise the crude palm oil export tax from 10% to 15%. On Wednesday, domestic oils fluctuated. The international palm oil supply - demand is currently balanced, with a tightening expectation in the first quarter of next year. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, buy on dips; in the short - term, wait and see [7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated narrowly. The spot prices of sugar in various regions decreased. As of October 14, 13 sugar mills in Xinjiang and 11 in Inner Mongolia had started operation. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of September is expected to reach 3.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7% [8]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [9]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. The spot price of cotton decreased. As of October 10, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.4%, and the weaving mill operating rate was 37.6%, both lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The cotton commercial inventory was 1.16 million tons, lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. From October 9 - 12, the average purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang increased compared to the holiday period but decreased year - on - year [11]. - **Strategy**: Expect short - term price decline [12]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was stable or rising. The average price in the main producing areas rose by 0.02 yuan to 2.78 yuan/jin. The market supply was normal, and the purchasing enthusiasm of traders increased [14]. - **Strategy**: Bearish for near - term contracts in the short - term, potential medium - term rebound, and sell on rebounds in the long - term [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly rose. The demand from secondary fattening and slaughter increased, and the market trading activity was high. The breeding side still intended to raise prices [17]. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in near - term contracts, consider positive spreads for the 13 - contract after spot price stabilization, and maintain reverse spread strategy for long - term contracts [18].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated a potential extension of the tariff "ceasefire," which has positively impacted Chinese assets and led to a rise in U.S. stock markets [1][2] - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones rising by 400 points at one point, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also recording increases of approximately 0.7% and 0.4% respectively [1] - Major U.S. banks, including Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, reported third-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, contributing to a nearly 5% increase in their stock prices [2] Group 2 - Analysts express caution regarding the market outlook, suggesting that uncertainty surrounding the trade war may lead to sideways trading near historical highs [3] - The recent strong performance of U.S. banks has bolstered confidence in corporate resilience, despite ongoing trade tensions [4] - The Federal Reserve's officials have highlighted increased downside risks due to trade uncertainties, indicating a need for potential interest rate cuts [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **One Star (Bullish/Bearish)**: Corn, indicating a bullish trend but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - **Three Stars (Clear Bullish/Bearish)**: Soybean, Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Egg, suggesting a clear bullish or bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - **White Stars (Balanced)**: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Live Pig, representing a short - term balanced state between bullish and bearish trends and poor operability on the trading floor [1] Report's Core View - The overall supply of agricultural products in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but there are uncertainties in the first quarter of next year due to factors such as trade relations and policies [3] - For different agricultural products, there are various influencing factors including supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and international trade situations, and investment strategies should be adjusted according to different product characteristics [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybeans are continuing to rebound. New domestic soybeans are on the market, and CGSGB is auctioning old soybeans with good transaction results at an average price of 3900 yuan/ton. Domestic soybeans are stronger than imported ones, and the price difference is widening. The export demand of US soybeans is a concern, and its price may be pressured by the demand side [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean futures has a slight reduction in positions and a rebound. As of October 10, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills is 812 million tons, with sufficient arrivals. Domestic soybean production is expected to reach 2100 million tons. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but it may be tight in the first quarter of next year if Sino - US trade relations deteriorate. The sales progress of US soybeans is slow, and relevant policies are postponed. The domestic soybean meal futures are in a data vacuum period, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Due to the weak global crude oil price and uncertainties in Sino - US trade, risk assets are under pressure. In the international market, the near - term demand for palm oil is weak, but there is an expectation of increased biodiesel blending in the long - term. Palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. Domestic soybean oil has a high inventory. In the long - term, oils are expected to be more resilient, and it is recommended to buy on dips after the price bottoms out [4][5] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Today, rapeseed meal is stronger than rapeseed oil, but the overall fluctuation is small, and the trend is weaker than that of competitors. There are uncertainties in Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The data gap caused by the US government shutdown makes the market more concerned about macro factors. The price difference between rapeseed products and competitors is still high, and it is recommended to focus on cross - competitor strategies with rapeseed products as short positions. The short - term unilateral trend of rapeseed products is expected to be volatile [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures are rebounding from the bottom. In the Huanghuai region, corn harvesting and drying are affected by rain. The new wheat planting is postponed, causing the wheat price to rise. The price of new corn in the Northeast is falling, but the scope is narrowing. The production of new - season corn in the Northeast is likely to increase. The opening price of corn in the Northeast has dropped, and the impact of the purchase price of Heilongjiang's state - owned grain depots is currently small. The bottom of the corn price is weak, but the phased bottom is approaching [7] Live Pig - The spot and futures prices of live pigs are deviating. The spot price is rebounding, supported by second - fattening in some areas, while the futures price is weak. The current spot price is in the range of 10 - 11 yuan/kg, which is at the bottom of the historical cycle. The scale of enterprise slaughter is expected to increase in October. The industry is starting to reduce production capacity, which will support the futures contracts in the second half of next year [8] Egg - The spot price of eggs is slightly rising, while the futures price is weak. The chicken - chick replenishment sentiment is poor, and the number of newly - laying hens at the end of the year is expected to decrease. The egg price is at the cash - flow balance or loss state, and the old - hen culling progress is slow. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium - term [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Today's stock index rebounded, in line with the expected wide - range oscillation. Information such as the article in "Qiushi" and signals from Premier Li Qiang, along with "easing" remarks from US officials, have eased risk - aversion sentiment. However, the trading volume in the two markets shrank significantly, and the positions of index futures declined, indicating strong market wait - and - see sentiment. The short - term structural pull at the industry level is not as strong as before, and the leading industries are showing differentiation. With the shrinking volume, the rebound space is expected to be limited. The current stock market is less sensitive to economic fundamental data announcements and more driven by expected market trends. The wide - range oscillation view is maintained, and attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US trade relations and policy expectations [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock index rebounded today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 1.48%. The trading volume in the two markets decreased by 50.3375 billion yuan. In the index futures market, all varieties rose with shrinking volume [2] Important Information - "Qiushi" magazine published an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping. China's September CPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and the PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.3%. "Qiushi" magazine stated to further stabilize market expectations and introduce more policies conducive to stable growth and expectations. After the US threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods on November 1, US Treasury Secretary Besent claimed that the situation had "significantly eased" and the tariff imposition might not happen [3] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see. The table shows the intraday percentage changes, trading volumes, volume changes compared to the previous period, positions, and position changes compared to the previous period of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM [5] Spot Market Observation - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.22%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 4.62. The trading volume in the two markets was 207.2859 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.3375 billion yuan compared to the previous period [7]