Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the persistent low inflation and deflationary pressures in China's economy, highlighting the need for targeted macroeconomic policies to address the underlying issues of insufficient effective demand and overcapacity [4][5][6]. Demand Analysis - Insufficient effective demand is primarily characterized by a lack of consumption demand with purchasing power, which is influenced by stagnant or declining income levels [5]. - The main source of household income is wage income, which has been negatively impacted by high youth unemployment rates and declining job quality [5]. - The decline in real estate prices has worsened household balance sheets, leading to increased savings rates and suppressed consumption [5][6]. Investment Demand - Investment demand is weak, reflected in reduced corporate investments and declining local government investment capabilities [6]. - Corporate revenue has been declining due to market sluggishness and increased competition, leading to lower investment demand [6]. - Local governments face fiscal constraints due to reduced land sales and related tax revenues, further limiting their investment capacity [6]. Supply Analysis - The current overcapacity issue is exacerbated by the "involution" phenomenon, which reflects a lack of effective market clearing mechanisms [6][7]. - The failure of the price clearing mechanism has resulted in persistent overcapacity, as firms are not incentivized to exit the market despite losses [7][9]. Policy Recommendations - To stabilize prices, it is essential to stabilize income, which hinges on employment and corporate stability [7]. - The focus of fiscal policy should shift from "heavy investment" to "heavy consumption," emphasizing direct support for consumer spending [7]. - Stabilizing the real estate market is crucial, as its decline negatively impacts the balance sheets of households, businesses, and local governments [8]. - Addressing the "involution" issue requires reconstructing market clearing mechanisms to ensure that supply and demand can adjust effectively [9][10]. Structural Reforms - Structural reforms are necessary to enhance the market exit mechanisms for inefficient firms, particularly state-owned enterprises [10]. - The alignment of fiscal powers and responsibilities at the local government level is critical to prevent the maintenance of inefficient capacities [10]. - Introducing competition policies across various sectors will ensure equal access and exit for all market participants [10].

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 两名知晓细节的消息人士于周三向路透社透露，欧盟委员会将提议把钢铁进口配额削减近一半，并将超 配额部分的关税上调至50%，此举旨在与美国和加拿大实施的关税政策保持一致。 这些措施将成为10月7日公布的钢铁行业新方案的一部分。 欧盟目前实施一项临时机制来保护其钢铁行业，一旦配额用尽，将对大多数进口产品征收25%的关税。 但根据世界贸易组织的规定，这些措施将于2026年年中到期。欧盟一直在努力以一项更永久性的机制取 而代之，并计划于下周公布该机制。 欧盟的最新举措呼应了钢铁企业一直以来的施压，后者要求将现行进口配额减半，并将超额部分的关税 从目前的25%提高到50%。他们表示，当前配额比初始水平高出26%，而市场需求却在下降。 这一税率将使欧盟与加拿大和美国保持一致，不过美国的关税并未设定进口配额。 经合组织称，2027年全球钢铁产能过剩量将达到7.21亿吨，欧盟及西方盟国正试图遏制这种产能过剩的 局面。 欧盟还在调查市场趋势，以考虑是否出台铝制品保障措施以及征收废金属出口税。 新的钢铁进口限制体系或许有助于欧盟与美国达成协议，按照7月底美欧协议的设想，它们 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX and PTA are in a downward oscillation phase, with their future price centers expected to decline. The demand data during the peak season is mediocre, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is significant. The overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and factors such as tariffs may affect medium - and long - term terminal consumption exports [2]. - The polyester chain is expected to maintain a weak oscillation due to large long - term supply pressure. The current valuation of polyester is low, but there is inventory accumulation during the peak season, and the long - term supply pressure is high. Unilateral strategies are difficult to implement [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Overview and Strategy - **Supply Side**: Three TA devices were put into production this year, and one more is waiting at the end of the year. The upstream supply has large long - term pressure. In the fourth quarter, there are few planned maintenance schedules [8]. - **Demand Side**: Polyester demand data during the peak season is mediocre. The load recovery is slow, with only about 90% currently. Inventory has accumulated to a high level, and terminal orders have not recovered well [8]. - **Valuation**: PX is around 200 US dollars per ton, and the spot processing fee of TA is around 180 yuan per ton. The industry chain valuation is at a low level, and the supply - demand balance has shifted to an inventory accumulation cycle [8]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the 01 contract to reach a low level and then focus on the long - position opportunity of the 05 contract next year. For arbitrage, pay attention to the PX1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunity when liquidity increases [8]. 2. Market Review - The PTA market in the third quarter followed the cost of crude oil, oscillating at a high level and then declining. Due to over - capacity pressure, high polyester inventory, and concerns about the impact of pre - peak exports, the price continued to be compressed during the peak season, and the valuation continued to weaken [9]. 3. Production Capacity Situation - **PTA**: In 2025, there are many PTA device production plans, with over 10 million tons expected to be put into production throughout the year. The production capacity is expected to continue to grow steadily in the future, and the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change [23]. - **Polyester**: In 2024, the new polyester production capacity was about 4.5 million tons, with a growth rate of about 5.5%. In 2025, the planned production is the lowest in recent years, with only 2.05 million tons of production capacity put into operation so far, and the expected annual new production capacity growth rate is about 5% [26]. 4. PX Supply Side - **Production**: The cumulative PX production in the first three quarters was about 28 million tons, almost the same as the previous period. The supply is relatively balanced, and there is no severe over - capacity situation like PTA [32]. - **Domestic Device Load**: The average PX load in the third quarter was about 80%, a decrease of about 4 percentage points compared to the previous period [34]. - **Korean Device Load**: The load of Korean devices in the third quarter was not high. Although the logistics volume to the US was almost zero, the import from Korea was normal, and the aromatics import is expected to increase slightly in the future [34]. 5. PTA Supply Side - **Production**: From January to August, the total PTA production was about 48.5 million tons, an increase of 1.7 million tons compared to the previous year. The short - term supply - demand situation is still acceptable [79]. - **Load**: The average daily effective load of PTA in the third quarter was about 77%, a decrease of 7 percentage points compared to the previous period. Thanks to the new device production, the supply output increased instead [79]. - **Export**: From January to August, the total PTA export was 2.53 million tons, a decrease of about 500,000 tons compared to the previous year [87]. 6. Polyester Supply Side - **Production**: From January to August, the total polyester production was about 52.5 million tons, an increase of about 4 million tons compared to the previous year. New devices have been put into production, and the load performance in the off - season was relatively good [91]. - **Benefit and Inventory**: The benefits of various polyester products are poor. The overall polyester inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, and most of the inventory is accumulated in polyester factories, with terminal inventory also reaching a high level this year [92]. - **Export**: From January to August, China's polyester export was about 9.6 million tons, an increase of 1.25 million tons compared to the previous year, with a growth rate of over 15%. The increase was mainly in bottle chips [99]. 7. Terminal Weaving - **Weaving Start - up**: The terminal start - up data is mediocre. After the holiday, the load only reached the historical median level. The actual situation is poor, and the order situation is average [118]. - **Terminal Raw Material Stockpiling**: The terminal raw material and finished product stockpiles have reached a high level this year, which is one of the reasons for the high polyester inventory. The future situation is not optimistic [119]. 8. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **PX Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows data such as production, import, apparent consumption, and inventory changes from January to December, along with their year - on - year growth rates [148]. - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It includes data on apparent consumption, production, export, polyester consumption of PX, and inventory changes, as well as their year - on - year growth rates. It also provides production and import - export projections [148]. 9. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis reflects the strength of the spot market relative to the futures market. When the basis is negative, the spot market is weak [150]. - **Inter - monthly Spread**: The spread sometimes provides arbitrage opportunities and can avoid unilateral risks [150]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: Open interest can reflect the ratio of real to virtual positions and may affect delivery. Trading volume reflects the activity of the main contract [150].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The PTA market shows signs of recovery in processing fees due to improved demand, delayed new plant commissioning, and some companies' production cut for price protection. The polyester load remains high without significant inventory accumulation, indicating optimistic market demand, especially in exports. The promotion by mainstream factories has led to a small peak in pre - National Day stockpiling. In a low - processing - fee and anti - involution environment, the PTA operating rate may further improve. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory at East China ports continues to decline, and the port is expected to continue destocking. Although overseas imports are expected to decline, domestic plant commissioning keeps the price under pressure, and coal - based ethylene glycol plants are also resuming production. The overall polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load is rising [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price increased from 491.3 yuan/barrel on 2025/9/26 to 492.6 yuan/barrel on 2025/9/29, up 1.3 yuan [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price rose from 814 to 817, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 206 to 209 [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA主力期价 increased from 4646 yuan/ton to 4652 yuan/ton, the spot price remained at 4590 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 222.5 yuan/ton to 200.3 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased from 273.5 yuan/ton to 267.3 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单数量 decreased by 4600 to 28114 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 increased from 4213 yuan/ton to 4224 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread increased from - 135.48 yuan/ton to - 133.86 yuan/ton. The MEG内盘 price increased from 4294 to 4295 [2]. - **Industry Operating Rate**: The PX operating rate remained at 85.57%, the PTA operating rate increased from 77.23% to 78.67%, the MEG operating rate remained at 62.62%, and the polyester load remained at 88.74% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price increased from 6605 to 6650, and its cash flow increased from - 8 to 37. FDY150D/96F price increased from 6790 to 6825, and its cash flow increased from - 323 to - 288. DTY150D/48F price remained at 7870, and its cash flow remained at 57. The long - filament sales rate increased from 40% to 70% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6495 to 6480, and its cash flow decreased from 232 to 217. The short - fiber sales rate decreased from 60% to 52% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: Semi - bright chip price increased from 5745 to 5750, and its cash flow increased from 32 to 37. The chip sales rate increased from 38% to 62% [2]. Device Maintenance Two PTA plants in South China with a total capacity of 5 million tons have reduced their loads due to weather, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic PTA plants are gradually returning, and domestic PTA production is rising. PTA profit is still constrained by over - capacity and new plant commissioning. Previously, due to pessimistic demand and new plant commissioning expectations, PTA processing fees were low. Recently, demand has improved, new plant commissioning has been postponed, and some enterprises have cut production to maintain prices, so PTA processing fees show signs of recovery [2] - Polyester load remains above 90%, but there is no significant inventory accumulation, indicating that market demand is still optimistic at low prices, especially export demand. Promotions by mainstream factories have led to a small peak in National Day备货. Under the environment of low processing fees and market anti - involution, PTA operating rate may further improve [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Data Spot and Futures Price Changes - PTA spot price remained at 4590 from September 26th to September 29th, 2025; MEG inner - market price increased from 4294 to 4295; PTA closing price rose from 4646 to 4652; MEG closing price increased from 4213 to 4224 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6495 to 6480; short - fiber basis increased from 102 to 110; 10 - 11 spread decreased from 2 to 22 [2] Market Conditions of Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - In the short - fiber market, the price of polyester staple fiber production plants is stable, and the price of traders is in a sideways shock. Downstream buyers purchase as needed, and on - site transactions are limited. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber varies in different regions [2] - In the bottle - chip market, the mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5790 - 5890 yuan/ton, with the average price down 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures first fell and then rose, supply offers were mixed, downstream terminals mainly watched, and market transactions were scarce [2] Operating Rates and Production and Sales - The weekly load of direct - spinning short - fiber decreased from 93.90% to 94.40%; polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 45.00% to 52.00%; the weekly opening rate of polyester yarn remained at 63.50%; the weekly load index of recycled cotton - type increased from 51.00% to 51.50% [3]

Core Insights - The Asian petrochemical industry is facing significant challenges due to weak demand, oversupply, geopolitical fluctuations, and volatile crude oil prices [2][4] - The olefins sector is particularly concerning, with profitability remaining in negative territory for several years, and a potential recovery not expected until after 2030 [2][3] - Capacity reductions are underway in Japan and South Korea, with Japan planning to close three naphtha steam cracking units by 2028, reducing ethylene capacity by approximately 20% [2] - The chemical industry is expected to see long-term demand growth, but short-term challenges are anticipated due to tariff-induced volatility, with a projected 25% decline in chemical demand growth in 2025 [3] Industry Challenges - The current market fundamentals are characterized by weak demand and oversupply, compounded by geopolitical tensions and fluctuating crude oil prices, leading to uncertainty in raw material procurement [2][4] - The olefins market is expected to take 3 to 4 years to address the oversupply issue, with significant capacity reductions needed to impact the global supply landscape [3] - Recent shutdowns of approximately 4 million tons per year of cracking capacity have occurred, but further closures of 20 or more units are necessary for substantial market impact [3] Raw Material Procurement - Geopolitical tensions and trade disputes are exacerbating uncertainty in raw material procurement for Asian petrochemical producers, with crude oil prices dropping from nearly $100 per barrel in 2024 to below $70 recently [4] - The expected oil price for 2026 is around $65 per barrel, prompting producers to be more cautious in their raw material selection [4] Strategic Solutions - One proposed solution is the construction of Crude Oil to Chemicals (COTC) projects, which leverage integration advantages to simplify logistics and reduce costs [5] - COTC facilities allow producers to flexibly switch between fuel and chemical production based on market demand, enhancing operational flexibility [5] - However, the ongoing downturn in the petrochemical sector is impacting downstream investments, making it challenging for new projects to achieve returns in the short to medium term [5] Trade Dynamics - The global trade flow of petrochemical products has shifted significantly over the past five years, with a nearly 35% decline in global trade volume, particularly in aromatics [5] - Asia has emerged as a leader in aromatics production, while the U.S. is focusing on ethylene glycol and polymers, indicating a potential reshaping of global trade patterns [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - The overall supply - demand pattern of soda ash is still bearish, and a short - selling strategy during rebounds is recommended. For glass, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. In the fourth quarter, the implementation of policies and the load regulation of soda ash plants should be tracked [1]. Logs - The log market is in a volatile pattern. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" season, the improvement of shipment volume should be observed. Currently, the market lacks a strong upward driving force, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [3]. Industrial Silicon - From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the balance is shifting to a more relaxed state. In the short term, the upward driving force is insufficient, and the price may fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and Sichuan - Yunnan industrial silicon enterprises in the fourth quarter [4]. Polysilicon - The supply - side regulation effect of polysilicon is not as expected, and the over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. Before the National Day holiday, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. Policies on capacity clearance and industry storage, as well as the actual operation rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, should be followed [5]. Natural Rubber - Before the holiday, the natural rubber market has no obvious long - short contradictions, and the trading atmosphere is cautious. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the 01 contract ranging from 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. The raw material output in the peak - production period of the main producing areas and the possible impact of La Nina should be monitored [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass prices in different regions remained unchanged, while glass futures contracts 2505 and 2509 declined. Soda ash prices in different regions were stable, and the soda ash 2509 contract decreased slightly. The basis of some contracts increased [1]. Supply - Soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased. Photovoltaic daily melting volume and the price of 3.2mm coated film remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Glass inventory decreased slightly, soda ash factory inventory decreased, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories remained unchanged [1]. Market Situation - The over - supply problem still exists. Although the factory inventory has decreased, the inventory has actually transferred to the middle and lower reaches. The weekly production remains high, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. For glass, the deep - processing orders are still weak [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Some log futures contracts fluctuated slightly, and the prices of some spot logs increased. The basis of some contracts increased [3]. Supply - The monthly port shipment volume and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased. The inventory in major ports decreased [3]. Demand - The average daily shipment volume increased [3]. Market Situation - The log market is in a volatile state, with low trading volume. The short - term upward driving force is lacking [3]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of some industrial silicon products decreased slightly, and the basis of some products increased [4]. Monthly Spreads - Some monthly spreads of industrial silicon contracts changed significantly [4]. Fundamental Data - The production of industrial silicon, organic silicon DMC, and polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The export volume of industrial silicon increased [4]. Inventory - The inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while the inventory in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. The social inventory remained unchanged [4]. Market Situation - The supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the balance is becoming more relaxed. The price may fluctuate in a certain range in the short term [4]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average prices of N - type polysilicon products were mostly stable, and the basis of N - type materials increased [5]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main futures contract of polysilicon decreased, and some monthly spreads changed significantly [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon increased. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed [5]. Inventory - The polysilicon inventory increased, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased [5]. Market Situation - The over - capacity problem of polysilicon persists, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range before the holiday [5]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of some natural rubber products decreased, and the basis and non - standard price difference changed [6]. Monthly Spreads - Some monthly spreads of natural rubber contracts changed significantly [6]. Fundamental Data - The production of natural rubber in some countries in July changed. The tire production in August increased, while the tire export decreased. The import of natural rubber increased [6]. Inventory - The bonded area inventory and factory futures inventory of natural rubber decreased [6]. Market Situation - Before the holiday, the natural rubber market is in a volatile state. The supply may increase due to reduced rainfall in Southeast Asia, and the demand faces export and domestic sales pressure [6].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The methanol market in China is experiencing high import levels despite a slight decrease in September, with government measures aimed at controlling production capacity to prevent oversupply risks [1][2]. Group 1: Import and Market Dynamics - In September, China's methanol import volume is estimated at 1.6384 million tons, a decrease of 121,400 tons from the previous month, representing a decline of 6.9% [1]. - The early morning trading in Jiangsu Taicang showed spot prices for methanol ranging from 2,245 to 2,255 RMB/ton, with basis negotiations around -100 to -105 RMB/ton [1]. Group 2: Government Regulations - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with six other departments, issued a notice on the "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)", emphasizing strict control over new refining capacity and careful determination of new ethylene and paraxylene production scales to mitigate the risk of oversupply in the coal-to-methanol sector [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Forecasts - Ningzheng Futures reports that domestic methanol production remains high, with downstream demand recovering, but overall market sentiment is weak, leading to a forecast of short-term price fluctuations with support around 2,350 RMB/ton [2]. - Hualian Futures indicates that while production rates and import volumes remain high, traditional demand is under pressure, and port inventories are at elevated levels, suggesting continued downward pressure on methanol prices [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic PTA device is gradually returning, and domestic PTA output is rising, but PTA profit is still restricted by over - capacity and new device commissioning. Previously, due to pessimistic demand and new device commissioning expectations, PTA processing fees were low. Recently, with improved demand, postponed new device commissioning and some enterprises reducing production to maintain prices, PTA processing fees show signs of recovery. Polyester load remains above 90%, and the high polyester load does not cause significant inventory accumulation, indicating that market demand is optimistic at low prices, especially export demand. The promotion of mainstream factories has led to a small peak in pre - National Day stocking. Under the environment of low processing fees and market anti - involution, PTA operating rate may further improve [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4585 on 2025/9/25 to 4590 on 2025/9/26 [2] - MEG inner - market price decreased from 4315 on 2025/9/25 to 4294 on 2025/9/26 [2] - PTA closing price decreased from 4678 on 2025/9/25 to 4646 on 2025/9/26 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 4246 on 2025/9/25 to 4213 on 2025/9/26 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6500 on 2025/9/25 to 6495 on 2025/9/26 [2] - Short - fiber basis increased from 83 on 2025/9/25 to 102 on 2025/9/26 [2] - 10 - 11 spread decreased from 0 on 2025/9/25 to 2 on 2025/9/26 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 on 2025/9/25 to 246 on 2025/9/26 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price decreased from 5625 on 2025/9/25 to 5525 on 2025/9/26 [2] 3.2 Market Conditions of Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - Short - fiber: The price of polyester staple fiber production factories is stable, the price range of traders is adjusted, downstream purchases as needed, and on - site transactions are sluggish. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market is 6300 - 6550 RMB for cash on delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it is 6420 - 6670 RMB for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it is 6300 - 6450 RMB for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery [2] - Bottle - chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chip in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5800 - 5890 RMB/ton, with the average price remaining the same as the previous working day. The futures market is closed, there is no futures guidance, the supply side's offers are stable, downstream terminals are temporarily on the sidelines, and the market trading atmosphere is cold [2] 3.3 Price and Profit Changes of Yarn - T32S pure polyester yarn price increased from 10270 on 2025/9/25 to 10300 on 2025/9/26, and the processing fee increased from 3770 to 3805 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price increased from 16300 on 2025/9/25 to 16350 on 2025/9/26, and the profit increased from 1407 to 1504 [2] - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14770 on 2025/9/25 to 14655 on 2025/9/26 [2] 3.4 Load and Production - Sales Data - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 93.90% to 94.40% [3] - Polyester staple fiber production - sales rate decreased from 78.00% to 45.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained at 63.50% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) increased from 51.00% to 51.50% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic PVC market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The export outlook is weakening, and domestic demand is flat, making it difficult to reverse the pattern of oversupply. The fundamentals are poor, and the short - term valuation has declined to a low level with limited downward space in the short term. In the medium term, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is 2,600 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is 2,890 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 730 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration continues to decline, while the profit of ethylene - based production shows a slight improvement, and the current valuation is moderately low [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 79%, up 2% month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 79.3%, up 2.4% month - on - month; the ethylene method is 78.1%, up 1% month - on - month. The supply load increased last week, mainly due to the increased loads of Haohua, Jinchuan, Zhenyang, and Yinlite. It is expected to further recover next week. Although the overall maintenance volume increased in September, there were multiple new device commissionings, so the supply pressure remains high [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, the final anti - dumping duty ruling in India has been announced, and China's tax rate is at a significant disadvantage compared to other countries. Once implemented, exports are expected to decline. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries decreased last week. The pipe load is 40.4%, up 1.3% month - on - month; the film load is 63.9%, down 13% month - on - month; the profile load is 38.9%, down 0.5% month - on - month. The overall downstream load is 47.8%, down 1.5% month - on - month, indicating weak overall downstream operations. The pre - sales volume of PVC last week was 759,000 tons, up 3,000 tons month - on - month [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the factory inventory was 318,000 tons, up 12,000 tons month - on - month; the social inventory was 971,000 tons, up 18,000 tons month - on - month; the overall inventory was 1.29 million tons, up 29,000 tons month - on - month; the number of warehouse receipts stabilized. Currently, it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle, with upstream inventory gradually shifting to the mid - stream. Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the inventory accumulation is expected to continue [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific analysis text is provided, only multiple charts are presented, including PVC term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume [16][23][25]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory No specific analysis text is provided, only multiple charts are presented, including factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, social inventory, factory + social inventory, warehouse receipts, Shandong's comprehensive profit of purchasing calcium carbide for chlor - alkali integration, calcium carbide - based PVC profit, ethylene - based PVC profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit [30][32][39]. 3.4 Cost Side The cost side shows that calcium carbide prices have stabilized. No specific analysis text is provided, only multiple charts are presented, including Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide prices, calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, Shaanxi mainstream price of medium - grade semi - coke, Shandong self - pick - up price of 32% liquid caustic soda, Shandong market price of liquid chlorine, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price [46][47][50]. 3.5 Supply Side In 2025, the PVC capacity expansion is significant, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. The total planned new capacity in 2025 is 2.5 million tons/year, including multiple projects such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical (Phase II). No specific analysis text is provided, only multiple charts are presented, including historical PVC capacity trends, 2025 PVC new capacity, 2025 PVC production raw material consumption, calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC operating rates, overall PVC operating rate, and weekly PVC output [56][58][60]. 3.6 Demand Side The operating rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC have declined. No specific analysis text is provided, only multiple charts are presented, including downstream PVC operating rates (including profiles, films, and pipes), PVC export volume, PVC exports to India, PVC pre - sales volume, China's housing completion area rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate, PVC industry chain, and PVC mind map [71][73][75][80][83][85][87][90][93].