Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 21, equity indices showed mixed performance, CGB futures rose, and commodity futures had a mixed trend with energy and chemical futures relatively strong and agricultural product futures relatively weak [2][11][14]. - The top three gainers were silicon metal, sodium hydroxide, and paraxylene, while the top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe), egg, and coking coal [12][13][14]. - The report also provided analyses and outlooks for specific commodities such as silicon metal, PTA, and soybean meal [18][25][36]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On August 21, equity indices had some rising and some falling, CGB futures gained, and commodity futures showed a mixed trend with energy and chemical futures strong and agricultural product futures weak [11][14]. - The top three gainers were silicon metal (up 3.7% with 1.3% month - on - month open interest increase), sodium hydroxide (up 3.3% with 23.3% month - on - month open interest increase), and paraxylene (up 2.6% with 17.8% month - on - month open interest increase) [12][14]. - The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 2.5% with 5.0% month - on - month open interest increase), egg (down 2.2% with 10.9% month - on - month open interest increase), and coking coal (down 1.5% with 0.1% month - on - month open interest increase) [13][14]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Silicon Metal - On August 21, silicon metal increased by 3.7% to 8635 yuan/ton. In the short term, prices will continue to fluctuate under macro sentiment and coal prices with little fundamental change. Concentrated production resumption may suppress prices [18][20]. - In August, southwest capacity release has significant room, and some major manufacturers may resume production, increasing supply pressure. Demand shows signs of month - on - month improvement, and inventory is expected to accumulate [19][20]. 1.2.2 PTA - On August 21, PTA increased by 2.5% to 4860 yuan/ton, driven by domestic petrochemical news, South Korea's capacity cut, and plant maintenance [25][31]. - China's plan to address overcapacity and South Korea's capacity cut may impact PX imports. Plant maintenance eases short - term supply pressure [26][27][28]. - In the short term, polyester chain prices are expected to have stronger support due to reduced supply, increased demand, and positive news [29][32]. 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Soybean Meal - On August 21, soybean meal decreased by 1.0% to 3113 yuan/ton. With downstream stocking, the basis may rebound, and long positions at 2900 - 2910 should be held and increased on dips [36][40]. - The American Soybean Association called for an agreement with China. U.S. soybean growth is good, and Brazil's export volume has peaked [37][40]. - Domestically, near - term inventory pressure and long - term supply gap are recognized. Oil factory maintenance eases near - term pressure, and long - term demand may increase [39][40]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration will exempt personal income tax for child - rearing subsidies from January 1, 2025 [46]. - The American Soybean Association called on Trump to reach an agreement with China to ease the crisis of soybean farmers [46]. 2.2 Industry News - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will promote the research and development of billet, cement, chicken, etc., and explore short - term options [47][48]. - HKEX will study a 24 - hour trading mechanism based on international experience and local market conditions [47][48].

专题报告 2025-08-22 乙二醇：政策对基本面影响较小，中期仍旧承压 报告要点： 近期乙二醇行业有较多供给端政策对情绪上产生影响，但从基本面的角度看对于行业产能过剩 以及进口端的影响极小，反而是下游需求端装置的出清存在利空压力，因此政策对于乙二醇行 业的影响情绪大于实质。从中期的角度看，随着国内外负荷提升，乙二醇将进入累库周期，估 值高位承压。短期节奏上看，近期到港量偏少，港口库存在短期还未进入累库阶段，叠加政策 刺激情绪对乙二醇有一定支撑，需等待到港量上升后，考虑逢高空配的机会。 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 马桂炎（联系人） 能化研究员 从业资格号：F03136381 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 刘洁文 能化研究员 近期工信部等部门出台关于开展石化化工行业老旧装置摸底评估通知，对化工行业 超过 20 年运行装置进行摸排，若后续存在出清政策的落实，预期会缓解化工行业 过剩产能的现状。 但对于乙二醇行业而言，整体老装置占比不多，运行超过 20 年的装置有 141.2 万 吨产能，其中燕山石化、天 ...

最有意思的是，无锡尚德创始人施正荣曾在2005年成为中国首富，弘元绿能实控人杨建良在2021年成为 无锡首富。两家企业、两位"首富"在光伏产业最困难时期产生交集。 8月19日晚间，弘元绿能发布2025年半年报。公司实现营收32.29亿元，同比下降19.52%；净亏损2.97亿 元，较去年同期11.57亿元的亏损大幅收窄74.35%。 一个月前，弘元绿能宣布托管无锡尚德，后者作为拥有24年历史的光伏企业，正面临着第二次破产重 整。 也就是说，在行业出清尚未见底的关键时刻，一家现金流紧张的企业主动接手近百亿债务的破产企业， 这场交易的成败或将直接影响两家公司的生死存亡。 01 目前，弘元绿能已连续七个季度亏损，累计亏损超过33亿元。公司应付账款高达131亿元，货币资金仅 52亿元。 弘元绿色能源股份有限公司成立于2002年(前身"上机数控")，是一家专注光伏全产业链产品服务商， 2018年在上交所挂牌上市。 具体来说，弘元绿能主要切入光伏硅片领域，并逐步向下游延伸。在内蒙古包头、江苏徐州等地大规模 投资建设单晶硅棒、硅片、电池片、组件产能。 要知道，光伏行业此前扩张迅猛，导致阶段性产能过剩。为了争夺订单，企业之间 ...

Group 1 - The US and EU have finalized a framework trade agreement that outlines plans to potentially lower European auto tariffs and initiate discussions on reducing steel and aluminum tariffs [1][2] - The agreement includes specific benchmarks for tariff reductions in the automotive, pharmaceutical, and semiconductor sectors, as well as new commitments regarding EU digital services regulations [1][2] - The US has agreed to lower the tariff on European car imports from 15% to a lower rate, contingent upon the EU formally proposing legislation to eliminate its tariffs on US industrial products [2] Group 2 - The US is exploring the possibility of reducing tariffs on steel and aluminum through a quota system, contrasting with previous assertions that these tariffs would remain at 50% [3] - The EU has committed to investing $600 billion in the US by 2028 and purchasing approximately $750 billion in US energy resources, including liquefied natural gas and oil [3] - The EU plans to significantly increase its procurement of military and defense equipment from the US, including a minimum of $40 billion in AI chips [3] Group 3 - The agreement addresses digital trade barriers, with the EU agreeing not to adopt or maintain network usage fees [4] - The EU has committed to providing more flexibility regarding its carbon-intensive import tariffs and ensuring that sustainability due diligence requirements do not impose undue restrictions on transatlantic trade [4] - Potential adjustments may include easing compliance requirements for small and medium-sized enterprises [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Hengdian East Magnetic (002056.SZ) rose by 4.99% to 18.30 CNY per share, reflecting a positive alignment with its fundamental performance as reported in the financial results [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.936 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.75%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.02 billion CNY, up 58.94% [3] - In Q2 2025, the company reported a single-quarter revenue of 6.713 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 25.87%, and a net profit of 562 million CNY, which is a significant rise of 94.8% [3] - The company's revenue sources for H1 2025 were primarily from the photovoltaic sector, contributing 8.054 billion CNY (67.5%), followed by magnetic materials at 2.371 billion CNY (19.9%), and lithium battery products at 1.286 billion CNY (10.8%) [3] Business Segments - The photovoltaic segment is the largest revenue contributor, with a shipment of approximately 13.4 GW in H1 2025, reflecting a growth of over 65% year-on-year and a gross margin of about 16.7% [3] - The company has a production capacity of 290,000 tons of magnetic materials, making it the largest in China, and ranks first in the industry for ferrite magnetic material shipments [6] - The photovoltaic segment has an annual production capacity of 23 GW for batteries and 21 GW for solar modules, placing it among the top ten in product shipments [6] Industry Context - The company acknowledges the challenges of overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry, with low average operating rates and operational difficulties, leading to accelerated industry consolidation [4] - The company faces global policy risks, including domestic regulatory measures aimed at curbing disorderly competition and international trade barriers such as tariffs and carbon taxes [5] - The management indicated that the production base in Indonesia is operating at full capacity, contributing positively to the photovoltaic segment's profitability, with expectations for further shipment increases in Q2 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing urgency of the Trump administration to secure soybean orders from China, as Brazil is rapidly capturing the Chinese market share previously held by the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: U.S.-China Soybean Trade Dynamics - In 2016, the U.S. accounted for over 40% of China's soybean imports, but this share has significantly declined due to ongoing trade tensions [1]. - Trump has publicly requested China to triple its soybean orders from the U.S., indicating a desperate attempt to regain market share [1][3]. - The U.S. soybean market is facing a crisis, with exports dropping and domestic supply not being as robust as previously claimed [1][3]. Group 2: Brazil's Growing Influence - Brazil has increased its soybean exports to China, now capturing 70% of the market, while U.S. exports have dwindled to 20% [5]. - The Brazilian government, under President Lula, is actively seeking to strengthen agricultural ties with China, positioning itself as a reliable supplier [5]. - Brazil is also eyeing opportunities in the beef market, as U.S. beef exporters face challenges in renewing export qualifications to China [5]. Group 3: Trade Negotiation Implications - Trump's mention of reducing the trade deficit suggests a willingness to negotiate, potentially offering concessions in tariff discussions if China increases its orders [7]. - The article points out the double standards in U.S. trade policy, where the U.S. seeks to force China to buy its agricultural products while simultaneously trying to reduce dependency on Chinese goods [7]. - The call for the U.S. to remove unreasonable tariffs on China is presented as a solution to stabilize trade relations and restore mutual trust [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of p-xylene, PTA, and MEG is rated as "1", indicating a "slightly strong" outlook [6]. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: With a significant reduction in overnight crude oil inventories and a strong rebound in oil prices, the short - term downside space for PX's unilateral price may be limited. Supported by cost and with improved demand expectations, and a tight supply - demand pattern, the unilateral price of PX is expected to rebound. For the spread, focus on the 11 - 01 positive spread. The PX - naphtha valuation is at a moderately high level, with a tight supply - demand pattern in September and downward pressure on PXN after the 01 contract [6]. - PTA: Cost support is strong, and the 9 - 1 reverse spread should be held. With an improvement in terminal textile and clothing demand and a bottom - up rebound in polyester operating rates, the unilateral price of PTA is strong. The price and basis strengthened yesterday, and the downstream's willingness to hold goods increased [7]. - MEG: With a decrease in imports and arrivals and marginal destocking, the unilateral price of MEG is strong. The reduction of naphtha cracking capacity by the South Korean petrochemical group has disrupted the market sentiment of olefin - related products. Domestically, plants are operating at full capacity, imports are low, inventories are decreasing, and polyester operating rates are rising. In the short - term, a bullish view is maintained. In the long - term, the supply pressure of new plants in the 01 contract will limit the upside [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: The naphtha price rose at the end of the session. On the 20th, PX prices increased, with two October Asian spot transactions at $839 and $838, and one November Asian spot at $836. The PX valuation on the 20th was $837/ton, up $2 from the 19th. There were concerns about weak PX spot prices due to over - capacity in China, but hopes are placed on winter demand for polyester clothing [2][3]. - PTA: On the 20th, the PTA spot price remained at 4,690 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 09 - 2 [5]. - MEG: South Korean petrochemical companies will cut capacity and restructure. A 750,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Malaysia has restarted, and there were tender transactions on the 20th [5]. - Polyester: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on the 20th declined overall, with individual differences. The average sales volume was estimated to be slightly below 70%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were generally average, with an average sales volume of 57% as of 3:00 pm [5][6]. Futures and Spot Data | Product | Futures Yesterday's Closing Price | Futures Change | Futures Change Rate | Spot Yesterday's Price | Spot Change | Spot Processing Fee Yesterday | Spot Processing Fee Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PX | 6,844 | 6774 | 1.03% | $838/ton | $2.83 | 255.5 | 2.5 | | PTA | 4,778 | 44 | 0.93% | 4,686 yuan/ton | - 4 | 197.31 | - 10.67 | | MEG | 4,477 | 53 | 1.20% | 4,502 yuan/ton | 47 | - | - | | PF | 6,504 | 72 | 1.12% | - | - | - | - | | SC | 482.8 | - 1.4 | - 0.29% | - | - | - | - |

Report Overview - Report Date: August 21, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Polyolefin Daily Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The chemical industry is undergoing adjustments to address over - capacity. The futures market of polyolefins shows a weak trend with cautious trading. The supply - side pressure of PP is increasing as more devices restart, while the supply of PE is relatively neutral. The downstream consumption shows some improvement but has a weaker outlook compared to the same period last year. Polyolefins are expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the demand improvement and inventory reduction in the second half of the month [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Quotes**: The prices of plastic and PP futures contracts generally rose. For example, plastic 2601 closed at 7347 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (0.37%); PP2601 closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.40%) [3]. - **Market Situation**: The futures market remained weak, with cautious trading. Traders offered discounts, and downstream buyers mainly purchased at low prices. The upstream device operating rate continued to increase. The supply - side pressure of PP increased due to the restart of devices, and the supply of PE was relatively neutral. The downstream operating rates of some industries increased, but the peak - season expectations were weaker than last year [4]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On August 20, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 78.5 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons (1.88%) from the previous working day, compared with 79.5 tons in the same period last year [5]. - **PE Market**: The PE market price was weakly adjusted. The LLDPE prices in North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 7130 - 7430 yuan/ton, 7240 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 7380 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 6380 - 6400 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. Some restarted devices led to sufficient supply, and producers slightly lowered prices to promote sales [5]. - **PP Market**: The domestic PP market continued to decline, with a decline of 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 6850 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6880 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6830 - 7080 yuan/ton respectively [6]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides data on futures market quotes, including opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and open interest changes of different plastic and PP futures contracts [3]. - There are also some figures related to inventory, such as two - oil inventories and their year - on - year changes, but specific data is not described in detail in the text [9].

Economic Overview - The article discusses the prediction by US Treasury Secretary that the Chinese economy is on the verge of collapse due to the real estate sector's hard landing, but argues that this view is misguided [1][16] - Current issues in the Chinese economy include declining real estate, massive local debt, overcapacity, declining birth rates, and income inequality [1][16] Economic Fundamentals - China's economic fundamentals are strong, with the highest trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves globally, as well as the lowest central government debt ratio [1][16] - The total household savings in China is approximately 160 trillion yuan, with net savings around 80 trillion yuan, indicating a strong capacity to endure economic fluctuations [1][2] Real Estate Market - The real estate market in China has seen a decline for four years, with some areas experiencing a 50% drop in prices, but this has not led to a panic sell-off as seen in the US [4][5] - The stability in the Chinese real estate market is attributed to the high cash flow and savings of the population, which prevents a hard landing [17][18] Urbanization and Debt - China's rapid urbanization has led to a significant increase in local government debt, exceeding 100 trillion yuan, as cities expanded quickly to accommodate rural populations [12][13] - The government is now focusing on controlling new debt and revitalizing existing assets to manage this debt effectively [20][21] Policy Responses - The government is addressing issues such as local debt, overcapacity, and declining birth rates through various policies, including limiting urban expansion and promoting orderly exit of excess capacity [22][23] - Recent initiatives to boost birth rates include financial subsidies for families and free preschool education [23][24] Economic Transition - The article emphasizes that the challenges faced by the Chinese economy are a result of rapid development and that solutions will take time, with gradual improvements expected over the next few years [47][61] - The shift in resource allocation from manufacturing to consumer support is underway, indicating a transition in economic strategy [44][46] Comparison with the US - The US economy also faces significant challenges, but its strong monetary policy and the ability to print dollars provide a buffer against economic crises [50][52] - The article suggests that while both economies have their issues, China's economic fundamentals remain robust compared to the US, which may face greater internal instability [62][63]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: Port inventory has increased significantly, with high imports and actual inventory. The supply in the inland region is expected to return, and the traditional demand will enter the peak season later. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the demand can be supported after the supply in the inland region returns. If the inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol is expected to see a valuation correction [2]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, while the coal - chemical industry is reducing inventory. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100, with no further increase for the time being. The non - standard HD injection molding price is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating. The number of maintenance in August has decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production has increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and the US quotation. The pressure from new plants in 2025 is relatively large, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [7]. - **Polypropylene**: The upstream two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, while the middle - stream is reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral. The PDH profit is around - 200, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **PVC**: The basis is maintained at 09 - 150, and the factory - pick - up basis is - 450. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventory reduction of the mid - upstream has slowed down. The northwest plants are undergoing seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The recent export orders have decreased slightly. The coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether the subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 500. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: On August 19, 2025, compared with August 18, the daily change in power coal futures was 0, the Jiangsu spot price decreased by 27, the South China spot price decreased by 23, the Lunan discounted price remained unchanged, the Southwest discounted price decreased by 35, the Hebei discounted price remained unchanged, the Northwest discounted price remained unchanged, the CFR China price remained unchanged, the CFR Southeast Asia price remained unchanged, the import profit increased by 5, and the main contract basis and the MTO profit on the disk remained unchanged [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: On August 19, 2025, compared with August 18, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained unchanged, the North China LL price decreased by 20, the East China LL price remained unchanged, the East China LD price remained unchanged, the East China HD price remained unchanged, the LL US dollar price remained unchanged, the LL US Gulf price remained unchanged, the import profit remained unchanged, the main futures price decreased by 27, the basis remained unchanged, the two - oil inventory remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipts increased by 379 [7]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: On August 19, 2025, compared with August 18, the Shandong propylene price remained unchanged, the Northeast Asian propylene price remained unchanged, the East China PP price decreased by 35, the North China PP price decreased by 20, the Shandong powder price remained unchanged, the East China copolymer price decreased by 4, the PP US dollar price remained unchanged, the PP US Gulf price remained unchanged, the export profit remained unchanged, the main futures price decreased by 32, the basis increased by 10, the two - oil inventory remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipts increased by 1180 [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: On August 19, 2025, compared with August 18, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained unchanged, the Shandong caustic soda price remained unchanged, the calcium - carbide - based East China price decreased by 40, the ethylene - based East China price remained unchanged, the calcium - carbide - based South China price remained unchanged, the calcium - carbide - based Northwest price remained unchanged, the import US dollar price (CFR China) remained unchanged, the export profit remained unchanged, the Northwest comprehensive profit remained unchanged, the North China comprehensive profit remained unchanged, and the basis (high - end delivery product) remained unchanged [7].