EIA报告：美国库欣原油库存创3月28日以来最大增幅。 ...

美国能源信息署(EIA)数据显示，美国上周EIA原油库存增加770万桶，分析师预期减少197.933万桶，之 前一周下降316.9万桶。 ...

美国至7月25日当周EIA原油库存、库欣原油库存、战略石油储备库存将于十分钟后公布。 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Crude Oil [1] - Date: July 30, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, against the backdrop of the peak season, crude oil demand is slightly lower than expected, and it is expected to move in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to new macro and geopolitical positives [7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $66.15, closing at $65.07, with a high of $66.74, a low of $65.00, a decline of 1.45%, and a trading volume of 21.5 million lots. Brent's opening price was $69.36, closing at $68.39, with a high of $69.86, a low of $68.12, a decline of 1.14%, and a trading volume of 16.67 million lots. SC's opening price was 513.4 yuan/barrel, closing at 505.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 513.7 yuan/barrel, a low of 501 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.53%, and a trading volume of 11.77 million lots [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: The JMMC meeting did not make suggestions on OPEC's production policy. Attention should be paid to whether the eight countries will continue to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day. Trump set a new 10 - 12 - day deadline for Russia. If no agreement is reached, secondary sanctions will be imposed on Russian oil. From EIA weekly data, US crude oil consumption in the peak season was slightly lower than expected. Although crude oil inventories declined and refinery operating rates were high, the apparent consumption of gasoline and diesel weakened. The sustainability of high refinery operating rates in the US needs further observation. OPEC+ is likely to continue to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in September, completing the withdrawal of the 2.2 million - barrel - per - day production cut one year ahead of schedule [6][7] 2. Industry News - The Kuwaiti oil minister is optimistic about the fundamentals of the oil market. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee urged member states to fully comply with quotas. Traders expect OPEC+ to significantly increase production again to complete the current production recovery action [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including WTI spot price, Oman spot price, Brent fund net position, Dtd Brent price, global high - frequency crude oil inventory, WTI fund position, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventory, with different data sources such as wind, CFTC, Bloomberg, and EIA [11][13][14]

Core Insights - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 1.539 million barrels for the week ending July 25, contrary to analyst expectations of a decrease of 2.5 million barrels [1] - The previous week saw a decrease of 577,000 barrels in crude oil inventories [1] - API's Cushing crude oil inventory rose by 465,000 barrels, compared to a previous increase of 314,000 barrels [1] Inventory Changes - API gasoline inventories decreased by 1.739 million barrels, compared to a prior decrease of 1.228 million barrels [1] - Distillate inventories increased by 4.189 million barrels, up from a previous increase of 3.48 million barrels [1]

Group 1 - Domestic refined oil prices are set to enter a new adjustment window [1] - The Bank of England's mortgage approvals for June will be released at 16:30 [1] - The FHFA House Price Index for May will be published at 21:00 [1] Group 2 - The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index for May will be released at 21:00 [3] - The JOLTs job openings report for June will be available at 22:00 [3] - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for July will be released at 22:00 [3] - The API crude oil inventory report for the week ending July 25 will be published at 04:30 the next day [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices fluctuated widely. Despite a slight recovery during the week, the decline at the beginning and end of the week led to the lowest level in nearly three weeks, with the weekly line recording two consecutive weeks of decline. Considering the current market situation, the long - term expectation of a loose supply side in the commodity attribute will continue to pressure oil prices. Even though inventories have slightly decreased recently, it is difficult to support oil prices due to the relatively pessimistic summer demand outlook. In terms of financial attributes, Powell remains cautious about interest rate cuts, and Trump's tariff policy may turn more aggressive, maintaining overall pressure. Politically, geopolitical situations around the world have not significantly cooled down, but the possibility of escalation is also relatively small, remaining volatile. Therefore, in the short term, oil prices lack clear upward momentum and may continue to fluctuate weakly if there are no significant changes in various factors [63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely. Although there was a slight rebound during the week, the decline at the weekend erased most of the gains. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate widely this week. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [485 - 525] yuan/barrel, mainly engage in short - spread operations within the range, and consider short - selling on rallies. However, due to geopolitical and other factors, the volatility may increase, so it is not advisable to chase the decline excessively [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices generally showed a wide - range fluctuating trend. During the week, they were affected by long - term interest rate cut expectations, tariff negotiation changes, and geopolitical situations, showing a slight recovery. However, at the weekend, most of the gains were given back, resulting in the lowest level in nearly three weeks, and the weekly line recorded two consecutive weeks of decline [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - economic Factors - **Tariff Policy**: Trump plans to set a new "reciprocal tariff rate" system before August 1, with tariff rates ranging from 15% to 50%. Some countries will face a maximum tariff of 50%, and Japan and some EU countries have reached a 15% tariff agreement. This indicates that the Trump administration's tariff policy is becoming more aggressive, which may lead to a more pessimistic market expectation for the results on August 1 [25]. - **Interest Rate Cut Expectation**: The market has a high expectation of an interest rate cut in September, which may have an impact on oil prices [28]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: In the Middle East, the US - Hamas cease - fire negotiation has not made substantial progress, and France's plan to recognize Palestine may ease the situation. In the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the third round of talks did not achieve substantial results, and the relationship between Russia and other countries remains uncertain. Iran and the US will participate in a new round of nuclear negotiations, leaving some room for the Iranian nuclear issue [32]. 3.3.2 Supply - side Factors - **OPEC+ Production**: OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is expected to maintain the current production increase plan at the meeting on Monday. Eight member countries will increase their total daily production by 548,000 barrels starting from August. Also, there are concerns about restricted Russian oil exports, which may alleviate the long - term expectation of a loose supply side to some extent [36]. - **Russian and Iranian Oil Exports**: Attention should be paid to the changes in Russian and Iranian oil exports, which may affect the global oil supply [37]. - **US Oil Production**: US oil production has slightly decreased [40]. 3.3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Consumption Expectation**: The consumption expectation continues to cool down [43]. - **Manufacturing Industry**: The manufacturing industry remains in a contraction state, which may reduce the demand for oil [46]. - **Refined Oil Production**: The production of refined oil has slightly slowed down [51]. 3.3.4 Inventory Factors - **Crude Oil Inventory**: US crude oil inventories decreased in the week ending July 18, which provides limited support for oil prices under the long - term pressure of a loose supply side [53]. - **Gasoline Inventory**: The decline in US gasoline inventories in the week ending July 18 may support gasoline prices, which will be transmitted to the domestic refined oil market and support the performance of fuel cracking [57]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - In the short term, oil prices lack clear upward momentum. If there are no significant changes in various factors, they may continue to fluctuate weakly [63].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心上移，其中 WTI9 月合约收盘上涨 0.78 美元至 66.03 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.20%。布伦特 9 月合约收盘上涨 0.67 美元至 69.18 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 0.98%。SC2509 以 507.1 元/桶收盘，上涨 2.8 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 0.56%。地缘政治紧张局势持续受关注。俄乌双方在伊 | | | | 斯坦布尔举行和谈讨论进一步交换战俘，但双方在停火条件和领 | | | | 导人会晤可能性上仍存在巨大分歧。另有两名行业消息人士称， | | | | 由于新规实施，外国油轮被暂时禁止在俄罗斯主要黑海港口装货， | | | 原油 | 这实际上停止了哈萨克斯坦通过部分由美国能源巨头持股的财团 | 震荡 | | | 出口石油。现货市场方面，亚太原油市场，9 月装拉布安原油的现 | | | | 货价差攀升，因为新加坡中质馏份油的炼油利润表现坚挺。9 月 | | | | ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/24 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/07/17 | 67.54 | 69.52 | 70.24 | - | 1.00 | -1.98 | 1.58 | 217.04 | 21.64 | 246.46 | 33.99 | | 2025/07/18 | 67.34 | 69.28 | 70.17 | - | 0.88 | -1.94 | 1.71 | 215.34 | 21.16 | 245.30 | 33.75 | | 2025/07/21 | 6 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The EIA weekly report shows that although the surface data is bullish due to the decline in crude oil and gasoline inventories, the terminal refined oil demand data is very weak, casting doubt on the sustainability of the high operating rate of US refineries, especially the gasoline demand data that should be at its peak within the year [7] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Main Data - As of July 18, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.169 million barrels to 418.993 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.6 million barrels; Cushing inventories increased by 455,000 barrels; strategic reserve inventories decreased by 200,000 barrels; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.738 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 900,000 barrels; distillate inventories increased by 2.931 million barrels, contrary to the estimated decrease of 1.1 million barrels [2][3] - US crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels per day to 13.273 million barrels per day; net imports decreased by 740,000 barrels per day to 2.121 million barrels per day; processing volume increased by 87,000 barrels per day to 16.936 million barrels per day [3] - US total crude oil chain inventories decreased by 5.353 million barrels; the four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for crude oil increased by 314,250 barrels per day; the four - week smoothed apparent demand for gasoline decreased by 180,250 barrels per day; the four - week smoothed apparent demand for distillate decreased by 112,750 barrels per day; the four - week smoothed apparent demand for jet fuel decreased slightly [3] Report Review - Last week, US commercial crude oil inventories declined more than expected. US weekly crude oil production continued to decline, falling below the same period last year for the first time this year. Refinery operating rates remained high, increasing by 1.6% to 95.5%. The continuous rebound of US weekly crude oil exports also contributed to the decline in inventories [4] - Although the total terminal demand increased, mainly from the chemical sector, the apparent demand for gasoline and distillates, which the market is more concerned about, declined. The four - week smoothed gasoline demand has declined significantly for two consecutive weeks, and this week's demand curve has further deviated from the normal range, approaching the levels of the 2020 COVID - 19 year [6] - After the release of this week's report, oil prices had no obvious short - term direction, but rebounded slightly in the early morning due to the progress of trade negotiations between the US and the EU [7]