Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation is increasing demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a bullish outlook for gold prices, which have shown strong rebounds recently [1][3][8]. Market Performance - On May 20, gold prices opened at $3,230.66 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3,204.50, and then surged to a high of $3,295.52, closing at $3,289.70, marking a daily increase of $59.04 or 1.83% [1][3]. - The daily trading range was $91.02, indicating significant volatility and bullish momentum [1]. Geopolitical Influences - The announcement of new sanctions against Russia by the EU and the UK, along with tensions surrounding Iran, have heightened market concerns, driving up gold prices [3][8]. - Ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, are expected to provide long-term support for gold prices [8]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index has fallen below short-term moving averages, which may provide further support for gold prices [3][8]. - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating and IMF's forecast of slower U.S. economic growth compared to global growth are contributing to a decline in the dollar's attractiveness [8]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently above the 5-10 month moving averages and are showing signs of a potential upward trend, with a focus on the $2,900 to $3,500 range for future movements [10][12]. - The daily chart indicates a rebound from key support levels, suggesting a bullish outlook for the near term [12][13]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading levels include support at $3,275 or $3,255 and resistance at $3,330 or $3,350 for gold [12]. - For silver, support is noted at $32.90 or $32.75, with resistance at $33.35 or $33.70 [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, highlighting that holding onto losing positions is always wrong, regardless of the situation [1] - Gold has experienced unprecedented volatility this year, with significant price fluctuations becoming commonplace, driven by various macroeconomic factors [1] - The current market environment suggests that gold prices will likely oscillate between 2950-3500 or 3100-3400 in the near future, with opportunities for both long and short positions [1] Group 2 - Gold broke through the 3250 level after three days of consolidation, with a notable increase during the US trading session, reaching a high of 3295 [3] - The trading strategy involved positioning for a bullish trend, with a focus on maintaining long positions above the 3200 level, and planning to exit at a profit of around 200 dollars [6] - The short-term outlook for gold remains bullish as long as it stays above the 3250-55 range, with potential resistance levels identified at 3315, 3325-30, and 3350-60 [8] Group 3 - Silver is expected to follow gold's movements, with a bearish outlook on US stocks due to recent downgrades affecting market sentiment [9] - The outlook for crude oil remains bullish, with a focus on maintaining positions until a breakout above 65 occurs, which would open further upside potential [11]

黄金开盘受到阻力压制，以及隔夜尾盘的震荡回撤之力，先行表现走弱； 另外，本周数据较少，影响有限，走势将继续依托关税贸易及地缘局势方向的指引进行波动。其在两者 不确和变化无常的情况下，金价将维持震荡走盘并偏走强，反之如表现缓和乐观，金价将回落再探上升 趋势线支撑位置。 日图；金价在如期触及上升趋势线支撑和60日均线支撑位置展开反弹，虽然未能进一步延续动力走强攀 升，但连续收取的触底形态，则暗示后市仍有进一步向上突破阻力的预期，那么后市在不跌破60日及上 升趋势线支撑前，仍将继续等待打破近日调整行情反弹走强。 分析；日内无重点关注数据及事件，可留意次日凌晨1点的2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储穆萨莱姆就 经济前景和货币政策发表讲话。根据之前表达的，通胀上行与就业市场走弱风险并存，货币政策需保持 警惕的不确定前景观点来看，预计也仍对金价产生一定的利好。 另外，美元指数日图开盘，也延续昨日尾盘回升之力，先行表现走强，对其产生压力，整体上，走势维 持近期的震荡上行趋势发展，目前未能跌破支撑，而仍有继续走强触及200日均线阻力目标的预期，而 会对金价造成压力，使其维持震荡走盘。 但由于周图，上周冲高回落，有暗示反弹触顶 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and trade risks, with prices currently stabilizing around key support levels while awaiting a stronger upward movement [1][4][9]. Price Movement - On May 19, gold opened at $3218 per ounce, reached a low of $3206.49, and a high of $3249.60, closing at $3230.09, marking a daily increase of $12.09 or 0.38% [1]. - Compared to the previous week's closing price of $3198.78, gold rose by $31.31, reflecting a 0.98% increase [2]. Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The market is influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions and President Trump's comments on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, alongside Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating, which has heightened market risk aversion [4][9]. - The potential for renewed negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has reduced immediate demand for gold as a safe haven, contributing to price volatility [4][9]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a strong resistance level, with the price remaining above the 5-10 month moving averages and a significant trendline support [6][11]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has not breached the 10-week moving average, suggesting a potential for a wide-ranging consolidation phase, with a focus on the $3100-$3440 range [13]. - The daily chart indicates that gold has rebounded from the ascending trendline and 60-day moving average support, with expectations for further upward movement as long as these support levels hold [15]. Market Outlook - The overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic for gold prices to strengthen in the future, despite the current lack of strong bullish catalysts [8][9]. - The market will continue to be influenced by trade agreements and geopolitical developments, with gold expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern [6][9].

张尧浠：关税出尽地缘风险升级、金价回踩支撑待涨攀升 黄金市场上周：国际黄金触底回升收线，未能跌破10周均线及上升趋势线支撑，故此后市，则有望维持在此支撑上方宽幅区间震荡，或者再度走强攀升。 具体走势上，金价自周初低开34美金至3294.82美元/盎司，便直接先行录得当周高点3305.91美元，之后连续走低跳水，于周四触及趋势线看涨支撑及60日 均线支撑等交点处，也既是当周低点3120.73美元，触底回升，强势拉升反弹，但仍遭遇一定阻力，而周五仍有所走弱运行，最终收于3198.78美元； 相对于开盘价，周振幅185.18美元，收跌96.04美元，跌幅2.91%。 相对于前周收盘价3328.85美元，周振幅208.12美元，收跌130.07美元，跌幅3.91%。 影响上，受到周末中美关税合谈和地缘局势乐观消息的影响，金价当周大幅低开并维持走低，之后，又在美国与其他国家的贸易关税协议接近达成，贸易 乐观情绪继续升温，以及美国表示不会在关税谈判中寻求弱势美元，打压金价进一步走低触及当周低点； 但由于关税压力影响有限，触及的低点又是强劲的看涨支撑，同时，美国4月CPI年率下降，提升了年内的降息预期，特朗普继续呼吁降息， ...

止损，永远是对的，错了也对！ 死扛，永远是错的，对了也错！ 横批：止损无条件！ 如果没有交易原则，那么，一切技术等于零！ 黄金昨天走势无敌，昨天2193附近亚盘先跌3120附近，跌幅达72美元；欧盘探底回升迎来大涨，美盘突破日内高点并站上3200大关后加速，日线以长下影光 头大阳线收盘3240一线！ 未来相当长的一段时间里，黄金大概率3400--3100或2950--3500间反复大扫荡，然后寻求大区间突破！做多，做空，都可以，只要有充足的理由都可以，带 好损，不抗单，控制好仓位；只要不损，很容易大赚！ 黄金，昨天日内探底暴涨完成多空转换，日内大涨120美元；黄金在60日均线获得支撑并大涨，这波下跌又要告一段落了。接下来回归看涨，关注上方3270- 65阻力突破情况；但突破前谨防大幅度回落后再涨；一旦向上突破，多头将直奔周一跳空缺口3323-27区域，然后逐步冲击3400大关！ 黄金这种巨阳线一般不会回落太多，一旦回落又要折腾；所以，看涨的同时，也需要注意短期大涨用力过猛，再次上演深度调整继续扫荡的走势！今天行 情，大阳线理应顺势做多，但上方阻力强大，突破前随时有跳水风险，不适合追；顶着巨阳线做空，也不明智， ...

一则消息搅动国际原油市场。 5月15日，国际油价持续下挫，WTI原油期货、布伦特原油期货价格均一度大跌超4%。有分析称，地缘局势是油价下 行的主要因素。据最新消息，伊朗最高领袖高级顾问Ali Shamkhani表示，伊朗准备在特定条件下与美国签署核协 议，以换取解除经济制裁。 花旗在最新发布的报告中表示，华盛顿和伊朗之间"有较大可能达成协议"，或将使伊朗原油的产量提高到400万桶/日 以上，并释放石油储备。 当地时间5月15日，美国总统特朗普在卡塔尔首都多哈表示，伊朗已经同意了部分条件，他将敦促伊朗在不获得核武 器的情况下达成协议。美国正在与伊朗进行认真的谈判，以实现长期和平。特朗普说："我相信我们已接近达成协 议。" 花旗警告说，如果外交努力失败，伊核问题或将导致紧张局势升级，布伦特原油价格可能升至 70 美元以上。 花旗指出，此前达成关税协议后，风险意愿普遍上升。不过，该行警告说，由于美国财政紧张且美国的硬数据（可 量化经济指标）趋于疲软，市场的安心"可能只是短暂的"。 炼厂是近期支撑油价的另一大因素。花旗表示，"残余燃料油裂解率保持高位，支撑了全球轻度加氢裂解炼油的利润 率。"花旗补充说，利润走高可能刺 ...

Group 1 - The global trade conflict easing has led to a rebound in oil prices, but subsequent price movements will be primarily influenced by geopolitical situations and OPEC+ production levels [1][4] - As of May 15, international oil prices experienced a significant drop, with WTI crude oil futures at $61.72 per barrel, down over 2.2%, and Brent crude oil futures at $64.66 per barrel, down 2.15% [1] - Positive signals from US-Iran nuclear negotiations have emerged, with Iran's willingness to sign a nuclear agreement under certain conditions, which may lead to the lifting of economic sanctions [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ has officially started its long-awaited production increase process, with an agreement to raise output by 41.1 thousand barrels per day from May to June, despite a lower-than-expected increase in April [2] - OPEC has maintained its oil demand growth forecast for the next two years, projecting a global oil demand increase of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026, while also revising down its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.9% [2] - The international oil market's trading logic is shifting, with factors such as reduced US tariff pressures and ongoing sanctions against oil-producing countries contributing to price dynamics, while OPEC+ production increases and potential easing of US-Iran tensions present downside risks [4]

止损，永远是对的，错了也对！ 死扛，永远是错的，对了也错！ 横批：止损无条件！ 第一，也是最重要的，中美关税和谈，远超市场预期，带来重大利空！上一轮黄金3167下跌2957后大涨3500美元，是得益于关税，当前下跌主要也是关税。 第二，特朗普政府强调，不会在关税谈判中寻求美元贬值；美元贬值是特朗普弱势美元政策，当前则180°转弯不寻求贬值。 第三，俄乌战争，印巴冲突，以色列与中东国家局势当前降温；美国与伊朗谈判传出缓和信号，智通财经5月15日电，伊朗准备与特朗普政府签署一项有条 件的核协议，以换取解除经济制裁。他表示，伊朗将承诺永不制造核武器，销毁其可用于武器化的高浓缩铀库存！ 第四，特朗普中东之行收获满满，分别与沙特，卡塔尔签署万亿美元级别贸易，有助于缓和关税紧张局势。 当前，三个不太确定性利多因素 如果没有交易原则，那么，一切技术等于零！ 黄金波动率非常高，十几二十美元一会儿的事。单子入场，10-20美元利润轻松，30美元以上也很快；但是，赚了不跑回吐也很快，因为行情节奏太快，慢 一点就是几美元十几美元的波动。持仓就容易回吐或者打损，所以有利润后减仓或者调整止损就很有必要，随时做好获利平仓的准备。除非进到 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are showing signs of stabilization and potential upward movement, with expectations of a rebound in the latter half of the week due to double bottom support and reduced bearish pressures [1][3][5]. Price Movements - On May 13, gold opened at $3236.61 per ounce, reached a low of $3215.88 and a high of $3265.11, closing at $3249.93, marking a daily increase of $13.32 or 0.41% [1]. - The price is expected to fluctuate within a range of $3440 to $3200 in the short term [8]. Market Influences - The decline in the U.S. April CPI to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, which supports gold prices [7]. - The weakening of the U.S. dollar index and the call for rate cuts by Trump are contributing to the stabilization of gold prices [3][7]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a broad range of price fluctuations over the past two years, with bearish signals suggesting limited rebound strength [5][10]. - Weekly charts show a potential for gold to challenge the $3400 mark if it maintains above the $3290 support level [11]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates that geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns will continue to influence gold prices, with a potential for a peak-to-correction cycle in the latter half of the year [8]. - Historical patterns suggest that gold may either remain in a $2900 to $3400 range for three years or experience a new high followed by a five-year bear market [8].