1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term impact of news on the precious metals market is weakening. The market will maintain a relatively strong and volatile downward trend. Gold longs above the 20 - day moving average can continue to hold, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold to earn time value [1] - For silver, due to the intensifying global inventory shortage and large - scale spot holding by institutional long - position funds through ETFs and physical delivery, the price is expected to move upward. However, rising raw material costs may suppress industrial demand. In the short - term, with high volatility risks, long - position holders are advised to lock in profits at high prices [1] - Platinum and palladium are relatively undervalued compared to gold. With a strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals, their value is expected to be reshaped by capital in the medium - to - long - term, and they are expected to continue to rise in a volatile manner. In the short - term, market speculative sentiment has weakened, and the price fluctuation has narrowed, but they still follow the relatively strong trend of gold. Platinum is recommended to be lightly bought at dips near the 20 - day moving average [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - The AU2602 contract closed at 1040.62 yuan/gram on January 14, up 1.31% from the previous day [1] - The AG2604 contract closed at 22763 yuan/kilogram on January 14, up 8.37% from the previous day [1] - The PT2606 contract closed at 630.65 yuan/gram on January 14, up 4.23% from the previous day [1] - The PD2606 contract closed at 495.50 yuan/gram on January 14, up 2.53% from the previous day [1] Foreign Futures Closing Prices - The COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4633.90 on January 14, up 0.86% from the previous day [1] - The COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 93.19 on January 14, up 7.28% from the previous day [1] - The NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2402.70 dollars/ounce on January 14, up 2.77% from the previous day [1] - The NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1882.50 on January 14, down 0.24% from the previous day [1] Spot Prices - The London gold price was 4626.10 on January 14, up 0.88% from the previous day [1] - The London silver price was 93.00 on January 14, up 7.00% from the previous day [1] - The spot platinum price was 2397.00 dollars/ounce on January 14, up 0.38% from the previous day [1] - The spot palladium price was 1814.50 on January 14, down 3.64% from the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T + D closed at 1037.61 yuan/gram on January 14, up 1.18% from the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D closed at 22765 yuan/kilogram on January 14, up 8.16% from the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was priced at 613 yuan/gram on January 14, down 2.21% from the previous day [1] Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 3.01 on January 14, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 46.10% [1] - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was 2 on January 14, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 60.60% [1] - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 7.80 on January 14, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 81.10% [1] - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.18 on January 14, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 52.00% [1] Bid - Ask Ratios - The COMEX gold/silver ratio was 49.73 on January 14, down 5.99% from the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver ratio was 45.72 on January 14, down 6.52% from the previous day [1] - The NYMEX platinum/palladium ratio was 1.28 on January 14, up 3.01% from the previous day [1] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio was 1.27 on January 14, up 1.65% from the previous day [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.15 on January 14, down 0.7% from the previous day [1] - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.51 on January 14, down 0.6% from the previous day [1] - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield data was not provided [1] - The US dollar index was 99.08 on January 14, down 0.11% from the previous day [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9712 on January 14, down 0.04% from the previous day [1] Inventory and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 100152 on January 14, up 1.90% from the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 628696 kilograms on January 14, down 0.22% from the previous day [1] - The COMEX gold inventory was 434360443 on January 14, down 0.30% from the previous day [1] - The COMEX silver inventory was 435671453 on January 14, down 0.30% from the previous day [1] - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 19282815 on January 14, up 0.17% from the previous day [1] - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 122991367 on January 14, down 0.41% from the previous day [1] - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1074 on January 14, with no change from the previous day [1] - The SLV silver ETF position was 16242 on January 14, down 0.48% from the previous day [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol futures market maintains a slight oscillation, with support at the 60 - day moving average. There's a high possibility of a inventory inflection point in Q1 2026, and investors can focus on buying opportunities after price dips. Currently, methanol is undervalued. Although the overall rebound is limited by weak downstream demand, it is likely to rebound from low levels. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in Iran [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 14, 2026, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.4403 million tons, a decrease of 9,690 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 84,400 tons, and that in South China decreased by 12,500 tons. The significant reduction in port inventory was due to a small total unloading volume. The visible unloading of foreign vessels was 96,100 tons, and the non - visible unloading was 125,000 tons. In South China, the inventory in Guangdong decreased, while that in Fujian remained stable [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The Ministry of Finance announced an adjustment to the export tax - rebate policy for products such as photovoltaic products. Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate for products including methanol will be cancelled [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures market shows a slight oscillation, and the 60 - day moving average on the daily chart provides support. There's a high chance of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter. Investors can consider buying after price drops. Methanol is undervalued, and its rebound is restricted by weak downstream demand, but it may rebound from low levels. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in Iran [3][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold and silver prices driven by global geopolitical tensions and supply shortages, with gold reaching historical highs around $4634 and silver hitting $89.13 [1][2] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to the investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, while silver's increase is primarily due to physical supply shortages and export controls implemented by China [1] - The U.S. CPI data released recently met expectations, leading to a muted reaction in gold and silver prices, although a speech by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard indicated no immediate reasons for further interest rate cuts, contributing to a short-term price pullback [1] Group 2 - For gold, the current bullish trend is noted, but caution is advised due to the rapid pace of price increases, with key support levels identified between $4560 and $4670 [2] - Silver remains strong above $86, with potential to challenge the $90 mark, but the rapid gains in the first half of the week warrant vigilance against risks [2] - As of the latest update, spot gold is priced at $4627.79 per ounce with a daily increase of 0.93%, while spot silver is at $90.70 per ounce with a daily rise of 4.36% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see, focus on the development of the Iranian situation [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The LPG market shows an "external strong and internal weak" pattern recently, with overseas supply tightening marginally and geopolitical tensions rising. The price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civil gas suppresses the PG disk, and the game between warehouse receipts and delivery disturbs the market. In the medium - term, the global balance sheet is expected to be oversupplied, and the potential upside risk comes from the geopolitical level [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 13, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4370 - 4460 yuan/ton, Northeast market 3910 - 4150 yuan/ton, North China market 4200 - 4400 yuan/ton, East China market 4350 - 4550 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 4700 - 5050 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4200 - 4350 yuan/ton, South China market 4900 - 5000 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 600 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton, and butane was 595 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. In South China, propane was 592 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton, and butane was 587 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton [1] - The disk continues to fluctuate strongly, the external market is firm, and the spot rose steadily yesterday, but there is differentiation among varieties. Ether - after carbon four is still weaker than civil gas. The market has an "external strong and internal weak" pattern, and the global balance sheet is expected to be oversupplied in the medium - term. The potential upside risk comes from the geopolitical level [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see, focus on the development of the Iranian situation [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent turmoil in Iran has raised investor concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply, leading to a rise in international crude oil prices to the highest level since early December 2025 [1] - Methanol futures prices have shown a gradual rebound since January 2026, driven by geopolitical tensions in the U.S. and escalating situations in the Middle East [1] - Domestic methanol port inventories remain high, with the 2605 contract still operating under a "weak reality, strong expectations" framework [1] Group 2: Production and Supply - As of December 2025, China's methanol production reached 101.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [2] - The operating rate of coal-based methanol plants was 103.6%, up 1.1 percentage points month-on-month, while natural gas-based methanol plants saw a decrease to 48.4%, down 2.5 percentage points month-on-month [2] - Methanol imports in November 2025 were 1.4176 million tons, showing a significant year-on-year increase despite a month-on-month decline [2] Group 3: Inventory and Pricing - As of January 8, 2026, domestic methanol port inventories rose to 1.5372 million tons, with expectations of maintaining high levels in January, which may exert pressure on near-term contract prices [3] - The inventory levels of inland methanol enterprises were around 447,700 tons, with slight price adjustments observed from manufacturers [3] - The market anticipates a significant decrease in methanol shipments from Iran in January, which could impact supply dynamics [3] Group 4: Downstream Demand - Domestic methanol-to-olefins (MTO) facilities are expected to gradually restart by late January, although traditional downstream demand remains weak [4] - The operating rate for olefins was 89.28%, reflecting a month-on-month increase, while other downstream products showed varied performance in their operating rates [4] - The coal market remains stable, with normal production levels in major coal-producing regions, although demand is slightly increasing due to colder temperatures [4] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Strategy - High port inventories continue to suppress market sentiment for methanol, but global geopolitical disturbances warrant close monitoring of the situation in Iran [5] - Despite expectations for the restart of some MTO facilities, caution is advised regarding the economic viability of these facilities if prices rise [5] - The methanol market is expected to remain in a "weak reality, strong expectations" state, with high inventory levels limiting upward price movement and a likelihood of wide fluctuations [6]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term EB2602 is expected to fluctuate strongly. The spot supply - demand balance is expected to continue, providing some support for prices. The cost of international oil prices has support, while the pure benzene price support is limited. The industry's operating rate may remain at a moderately low level, and the downstream operating rate will change differently [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of styrene futures was 7028 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan; the trading volume was 352,157 lots, a decrease of 155,060 lots. The long position of the top 20 holders was 375,459 lots, an increase of 594 lots; the net long position was - 37,350 lots, a decrease of 3,919 lots; the short position was 412,809 lots, an increase of 4,513 lots. The closing price of the March contract was 7081 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan. The open interest of the active contract was 242,728 lots, a decrease of 15,148 lots. The total number of warehouse receipts was 360 lots, an increase of 60 lots [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6964 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan. The FOB Korea intermediate price was 895 dollars/ton, an increase of 29 dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 905 dollars/ton, an increase of 29 dollars. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China were 6925, 7270, 7050, and 7170 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 200, 165, 175, and 200 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 731 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 711 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 745.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 19.5 dollars; the FD US Gulf price was 399.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 8.5 dollars. The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 682.6 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in the US Gulf was 277 cents/gallon, an increase of 2 cents; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 789 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars. The market prices in South, East, and North China were 5400, 5405, and 5300 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 100, 70, and 80 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The overall operating rate of styrene was 70.92%, an increase of 0.69%. The national inventory of styrene was 162,340 tons, a decrease of 9,420 tons; the inventory in the East China main port was 10.06 million tons, a decrease of 3.17 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 46.72%, 69.8%, 58.9%, 39%, and 81.68% respectively, with changes of +3.08%, - 0.1%, - 1.5%, +3%, and +1.16% [2]. Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, China's styrene factory output was 355,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%; the factory capacity utilization rate was 70.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.69%. The consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 0.31% month - on - month to 259,700 tons. As of January 8th, the styrene factory inventory was 162,300 tons, a decrease of 5.48% from last week; as of January 12th, the styrene inventory in East China ports was 100,600 tons, a decrease of 23.96% from last week [2]. Viewpoint Summary - There are no new plans for shutdown or restart of large - scale domestic styrene plants in the near future. The industry's operating rate may remain at a moderately low level. The operating rate of downstream EPS may increase slightly in the short term; the operating rate of the PS industry is expected to decline; the short - term supply of the ABS industry will not change much. The spot supply - demand balance is expected to continue, providing some support for prices. The international oil price has support, while the pure benzene price support is limited [2].

上交易日周一(1月12日)：国际黄金受到周末地缘局势加剧，以及特朗普政府对美联储主席鲍威尔展开 刑事调查的不确定性加深，引发了市场对美联储独立性和美元长期前景的担忧。推动金价高开高走，并 刷新历史高点突破4600美元关口，虽最终由于部分获利了结和芝商所继续调整保证金的影响，而有所回 撤。但其收线上，仍使得多头动力进一步加强，后市则有望继续上行攀升。操作依然保持逢低做多不 变。 展望今日周二(1月13日)：国际黄金开盘延续隔夜尾盘回撤动力，早盘有所走弱，加上美元指数延续昨 日的触底回升，早盘有所偏强，也限制了金价多头。但金价也仍具进一步上涨动力。 同时，日内还将受到美国12月未季调核心CPI年率的预期走高，而多头反弹受限，不过CPI的升高也会 带动金价的商品属性，使其反弹，故此，如晚间公布的CPI整体下降，将会提升降息前景，金价直接再 度走强，如果高于前值或者是预期，金价则是先跌后涨，整体上，无论什么结果，操作都是逢低做多为 主。 具体走势上，金价自亚市高开至4516.02美元/盎司，先行录得日内低点4512.88美元，之后反弹攀升，虽 至8点半时段触及4600美元关口，有所遇阻回撤近40美金，但整体依然保持震 ...

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2026-01-13 苯乙烯港口去库超预期 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-168元/吨（-24）。纯苯港口库存32.40万吨（+0.60万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费124美元/ 吨（-8美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费120美元/吨（-5美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差157.8美元/吨（-6.0美元/吨）。华东纯 苯现货-M2价差-205元/吨（-10元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-630元/吨（-95），酚酮生产利润-869元/吨（-140），苯胺生产利润909元/吨（+64）， 己二酸生产利润-765元/吨（-63）。己内酰胺开工率74.22%（-1.30%），苯酚开工率85.50%（+4.50%），苯胺开工率 61.31%（+1.50%），己二酸开工率67.60%（-0.60%）。 苯乙烯装置恢复进度，伊朗局势动向，油价大幅波动，俄乌和谈进程 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差96元/吨（+21元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润397元/吨（+146元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, mainly on the sidelines in the short term, pay attention to the situation in Iran; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Core View - Recently, the market has been oscillating and strengthening, with overall rising spot prices but differentiation among varieties. The LPG market continues the pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic". Although the overseas supply has tightened marginally recently and the external market price has been relatively firm, the domestic market's reaction has been limited. The price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civil gas has exerted additional pressure on the PG market. In addition, the game between warehouse receipts and delivery has brought disruptions to the market. The core is that the global balance sheet still has an expectation of oversupply, and the endogenous driving force of the market is limited. The potential upside risk comes from the geopolitical level. If the conflict between the US and Iran further escalates and Iran's LPG supply declines, it will lead to a significant tightening of domestic supply, so continuous attention should be paid to the situation [1] Market Analysis - On January 12th, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4370 - 4460; Northeast market, 3910 - 4150; North China market, 4170 - 4380; East China market, 4300 - 4550; Yangtze River market, 4650 - 5000; Northwest market, 4200 - 4350; South China market, 4850 - 4930 [1] - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China, was 598 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and butane was 593 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The RMB - equivalent price of propane was 4615 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton, and butane was 4577 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China, China, was 590 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton, and butane was 585 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton. The RMB - equivalent price of propane was 4554 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and butane was 4515 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton [1] Charts - The report contains charts including Shandong civil liquefied gas spot price [3][10] - East China civil liquefied gas spot price [3][10] - South China civil liquefied gas spot price [3][12] - North China civil liquefied gas spot price [3][12] - Northeast civil liquefied gas spot price [3][14] - Yangtze River civil liquefied gas spot price [3][14] - Shandong ether - after carbon four spot price [3][19] - East China ether - after carbon four spot price [3][19] - North China ether - after carbon four spot price [3][22] - Northeast ether - after carbon four spot price [3][22] - Yangtze River ether - after carbon four spot price [3][21] - Northwest ether - after carbon four spot price [3][21] - PG futures main contract closing price [3][25] - PG futures index closing price [3][25] - PG futures near - month contract closing price [3][28] - PG futures near - month spread [3][28] - PG futures main contract trading volume and open interest [3][29] - PG futures total trading volume and open interest [3][29]

Group 1 - Silver futures prices reached a new high of 20,945 yuan, while gold futures for the 2602 contract hit a new high of 1,026.28 yuan, indicating a potential strong follow-up for gold if silver continues to rise [1] - The ongoing de-dollarization process in non-US countries is driving physical gold buying demand, and the uncertain geopolitical situation is boosting market risk aversion, suggesting that the strong underlying logic for precious metals remains unchanged [1] - The futures market offers T+0 trading flexibility and the ability for two-way transactions, which can be advantageous for investors [1] Group 2 - In a simulated trading scenario, if an investor established a long position in gold futures at around 975 yuan on January 5, the price increased to approximately 1,026 yuan by January 12, representing a cumulative increase of about 51 points [2] - Investors maintaining a bullish outlook may choose to hold their positions, but there is a risk of significant losses if the market direction is misjudged [2] - The precious metals market is influenced by multiple factors, and there are opportunities for investors to enhance their trading skills through participation in the "Economic Grain Cup - National Futures Simulation Championship" [3]