Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data eases market concerns about an impending economic slowdown, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. The improvement in China's May PMI data and positive signals from the Sino-US leaders' call boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [3]. - For different asset classes, the report provides short - term outlooks: stocks may be short - term volatile with a suggestion of cautious long positions; bonds may be at a short - term high with a cautious wait - and - see approach; different commodity sectors have their own short - term trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Finance - **Overseas**: In May, the US non - farm payroll employment increased by 139,000, higher than the expected 130,000. Employment growth continued to slow under the influence of trade policy uncertainties, and the unemployment rate remained at a low of 4.2% for the third consecutive month. The better - than - expected data led to a rebound in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields and an increase in global risk appetite [3]. - **Domestic**: China's May PMI data improved, indicating continued expansion of overall economic output and accelerated economic growth, which helps boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. The Sino - US leaders' call released positive signals and also boosted domestic risk appetite [3]. - **Asset Outlook**: Stocks may be short - term volatile, with a suggestion of cautious long positions; bonds may be at a short - term high, with a cautious wait - and - see approach; different commodity sectors have their own short - term trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as metals, communication services, and trade, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly. The improvement in China's May PMI data and positive signals from the Sino - US leaders' call boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. The short - term trading logic focuses on US trade policy changes and trade negotiation progress. It is recommended to be short - term cautious and go long [4]. Precious Metals - Last week, the precious metals market showed a significant divergence, with silver strongly breaking through and driving the gold - silver ratio to quickly decline. Employment data concerns increased market volatility. There are still uncertainties in trade negotiations. Silver has a technical breakthrough and catch - up demand, and the gold - silver ratio may be repaired. Gold is expected to remain in a high - level shock, and a callback - buying strategy is recommended [5]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Canadian wildfires and decent US employment data led to a slight increase in oil prices. The impact of OPEC+ production increase remains at the long - term structural level, and oil prices are expected to remain stable in the near term and may weaken in the long term [6][7]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are consolidating, and the asphalt market is in a narrow - range shock. Demand has recovered to a limited extent, and the inventory de - stocking has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [7]. - **PX**: PTA's operating rate has slightly increased, and PX demand will rise later. The supply will be tight in the future, but it will maintain a short - term shock pattern [7]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to continue to increase in June. The downstream demand is in a negative feedback state, and it may shift to slight inventory accumulation. It is recommended to be bearish on high prices [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After the speculation on ethane imports was falsified, and with the coal price just showing signs of bottoming out, the cost - pricing logic still exerts pressure on the market. Supply will increase significantly, and it may maintain a shock pattern in the near term [8]. - **Short Fibre**: It generally maintains a weak shock pattern. Terminal orders have recovered slower than expected, and downstream operating rates are expected to decrease. It will continue to operate in a shock in the short term [8]. - **Methanol**: Inventories in the inland and ports are rising. The port inventory accumulation process may slow down. Supply is loose, and demand is fair. It is expected to shock and repair in the short term, and prices may decline in the medium - to - long term [8]. - **PP**: Production is increasing, downstream operating rates are slightly falling, and inventories are rising significantly. The fundamentals are deteriorating, and prices are expected to be under pressure [8]. - **LLDPE**: Plants are restarting, downstream operating rates are slightly falling, and inventories are rising. The price is expected to move down due to the production - expansion expectation [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Sino - US leaders' call restarts the negotiation, but the possibility of continued overly optimistic results is low, and attention may return to high - tariff risks. The copper ore supply is relatively tight, production is high, and demand may decline marginally. It will be in a short - term shock [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: Supply is rigid, production is high, and imports have increased significantly. Demand may decline marginally, but there is still an effect of export rush. There is no major substantial negative news in the short term [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of domestic tin ore is tight, and the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State may be delayed. Demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and inventories have decreased. Tin prices may continue to repair in the short term, but the upside is limited [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that trade risks are mixed, with geopolitical and trade risks continuing to support precious metals in the market [1][2] - As of June 6, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.47% to $3331.0 per ounce, while the gold ETF Huaxia (518850) fell by 0.04% on the day but increased by 1.51% weekly [1] - The U.S. economic data showed a mixed picture, with May ADP employment increasing by only 37,000, and the ISM non-manufacturing index dropping to 49.9, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum [1] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for May added 139,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, suggesting economic resilience [1] - The Federal Reserve's outlook on interest rate cuts has been adjusted, with expectations for cuts in 2025 reduced from three to two times, influenced by ongoing inflation concerns due to tariffs [1] - The trade tensions escalated with Trump's announcement of a 50% increase in steel and aluminum tariffs, prompting fears of global trade friction, although there were signs of negotiation progress between the U.S. and other countries [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is "Bearish" [1] Core Viewpoints - The price of gold first rose and then fell this week. The short - term tariff issue is moving towards easing, and the market trading logic has changed, which is bearish for gold. The US economic data is mixed, and the short - term monetary policy is cautious, lacking positive factors for the gold price. Gold is still in a volatile range, and attention should be paid to the callback pressure brought by the phased recovery of market risk appetite [2][3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The on - shore basis (spot - futures) decreased by 2.6% to - 3.68 yuan/gram; the internal - external futures price difference (internal - external) increased by 157.2% to 13.80 yuan/gram. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 3.5% to 17,847 kilograms, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.73% to 38,117,334 ounces. The SPDR ETF holding volume increased by 0.43% to 934.21 tons, and the CFTC gold speculative net long position increased by 11.3% to 130,505 lots. The US Treasury bond yield increased by 2.3% to 4.51%, and the US dollar index decreased by 0.24% to 99.2 [10] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US dollar index fell 0.14% to 99.2, the US Treasury bond yield was 4.5%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.5%, the VIX index dropped to 16.77, the US overnight secured financing rate was 4.29%, the oil price rose 6.9%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.31%. The real interest rate rose to 2.19%, and the gold price rose 0.6% [2][9][16][20] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed - country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising 1.5%. Developing - country stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.13%. US and German bonds rebounded, with a US - German spread of 1.93%. The UK Treasury bond yield was 4.64%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.46%. The euro rose 0.43%, the British pound rose 0.51%, the Japanese yen fell 0.58%, and the Swiss franc rose slightly by 0.01%. Non - US currencies mostly appreciated [24][29][32] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The gold speculative net long position slightly increased to 130,000 lots, and the SPDR gold ETF holding volume slightly increased to 934 tons. The RMB appreciated, and the Shanghai gold premium narrowed. Gold rose slightly, silver rose sharply, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 92 [37][39] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's May CPI and import - export data, US May New York Fed inflation expectation; Tuesday: US May NFIB small - business confidence index, China's May financial data; Wednesday: US May CPI; Thursday: US May PPI and initial jobless claims, 10 - year US Treasury bond auction; Friday: US June University of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectation [40]

金价高位震荡，白银狂飙。 市场普遍分析认为，随着关税政策的调整，全球贸易格局面临重塑，金属市场的供应链稳定性受到冲击。投资者为了规避可能的风险，将资金转移至相对 稳定且具有避险属性的贵金属市场，白银作为其中的重要一员，自然成了资金流入的方向。这种基于宏观政策变动引发的市场行为，直接推动了白银价格 近日，贵金属市场上演了一场令人瞩目的行情。 现货白银价格大幅飙升，一度涨幅超过4.5%，突破关键的36美元/盎司整数关口，达到了自2012年2月以来的最高水平。尽管在收盘时价格有所回落，但仍 收报于35.63美元/盎司。 今年以来，现货白银累计涨幅已达约24%，展现出强劲的上升势头。投资白银的时机到了吗？后市会怎么走？ 白银价格涨幅超过黄金 市场数据显示，本周现货黄金价格累计上涨约0.6%，而现货白银的累计涨幅却超过9%，站上35美元/盎司关口，其间更是一度突破36美元/盎司关口，为 2012年2月以来首次。 有分析人士表示，这种分化主要由金银比修复逻辑、白银特有属性及市场情绪共振驱动所致。最近一段时间，金银价格比一度升至1比100，相当于1盎司 黄金可以换100盎司白银，已经远远高于历史均值，这一极端比值暗示要么白 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming US May non-farm payroll report is anticipated to reveal significant cooling in the labor market, as indicated by a series of concerning leading indicators, particularly the disappointing ADP employment data [1][3]. Employment Data - The ADP report for May showed only 37,000 new jobs added, far below the expected 114,000, marking the lowest figure since March 2023 and the largest deviation from expectations in nearly three years [1][3]. - Job losses were noted in the goods-producing sector, with a decrease of 2,000 positions, while the service sector saw a modest increase of 36,000 jobs, primarily driven by leisure and hospitality (+38,000) and finance (+20,000) [3]. - Small businesses (fewer than 50 employees) were particularly affected, losing 13,000 jobs, reflecting the direct impact of macroeconomic policy uncertainty on these vulnerable entities [3]. Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims rose to 247,000, exceeding expectations and reaching an eight-month high, with the four-week moving average also at its highest since November 2021, suggesting prolonged unemployment durations [4]. - The ISM non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.9 in May, indicating contraction in business activity for the first time since mid-2022, attributed to policy uncertainties affecting order delays [4]. Policy Uncertainty - Current policy uncertainties, especially regarding tariffs, are seen as a core factor contributing to the unclear economic outlook, with potential cost increases looming if negotiations fail [5]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is crucial for understanding structural changes in employment, particularly in the goods-producing sector, small businesses, and temporary jobs [5]. Market Reactions - Market consensus for new non-farm jobs has dropped to 130,000 from a previous 177,000, with some institutions predicting as low as 125,000 [7]. - The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, but a rise to 4.3% or higher could signal recession risks [7]. - Average hourly wage growth is projected to slightly increase to 0.3%, raising concerns about a potential wage-inflation spiral due to high labor costs and declining productivity [7]. Short-term Volatility - The release of employment data is likely to cause significant volatility in stock, bond, and currency markets, similar to the reactions following the ADP data release [8]. - Current interest rate futures reflect expectations of at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with increased bets on a September rate cut if unemployment rises significantly [8].

今年以来黄金表现强劲，出乎不少机构的预料，现货黄金盘中一度触及3499.45美元/吨，年内涨幅逼近30%。华尔街虽然连续"撕报告"，但是仍然难赶上黄 金的上涨幅度。 道富环球投资管理对金价最新的中期走势持乐观态度，认为在多种策略性因素及结构性因素推动下，金价前景仍然乐观。该行预期今年金价下限将会到更高 水平，由原本的每盎司2000美元，上升至3000美元。今年余下时间，黄金市场将过渡到3000美元以上的波动区间，预期未来12至24个月内，可测试4000至 5000美元。 道富环球指出，金价上行受五大主题支撑，分别是（1）黄金ETF流入金额潜在上升；（2）中国买入黄金的消费者增加；（3）央行对黄金需求保持强劲； （4）替代性货币需求及全球债务上升，支持金价上涨；（5）美联储仍会减息。 此外，一些策略性因素如贸易政策的不确定性、经济衰退风险也在推动金价。 21世纪经济报道记者 叶麦穗 广州报道黄金盘中跳水，盘中已经跌破3400美元/盎司。 道富环球表示，基准情境下，虽然包括中美在内的高关税税率已下降，但贸易政策的不确定性，加上地缘政治紧张局势仍会在今年余下时间占主导地位，同 时通胀压力仍在，限制美联储减息空间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a triangular trend adjustment, with potential for future price increases despite recent fluctuations and geopolitical tensions [1][7]. Price Movement Summary - Gold prices opened the week at $3354.98, reached a high of $3356.39, and fell to a low of $3245.36, closing at $3291.93, down $65.77 or 1.96% from the previous week's close of $3357.70, with a weekly range of $112.34 [1][3]. - The price is supported by the 10-week moving average, indicating potential for a rebound [1][9]. Market Influences - The U.S. dollar index initially strengthened but later retreated, impacting gold prices [3]. - Concerns over international trade and a decrease in pessimism regarding the U.S. economy contributed to the recent price movements [3][7]. - Geopolitical risks, including conflicts in the Middle East, continue to influence market sentiment and gold prices [3][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold prices have been in a volatile adjustment phase without breaking below the 5-month moving average, suggesting a potential for continued wide-ranging fluctuations [8]. - The weekly chart shows that despite recent weakness, gold closed above the 10-week moving average, maintaining a bullish outlook [9]. - The daily chart indicates that gold is positioned above the expansion line, with potential to test resistance near $3500 [11]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data releases, including the U.S. manufacturing PMI and construction spending, are expected to influence market sentiment and gold price movements [5][7]. - The Federal Reserve's concerns about stagflation and economic recession risks may lead to expectations of interest rate cuts, which could support gold prices [7].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, initially declining before rebounding, indicating a short-term bullish trend, but still facing resistance from a downward trend line [1][3][5]. Price Movement Summary - Gold opened at $3287.32 per ounce, dropped to a low of $3245.36, then rose to a high of $3330.38, closing at $3317.46, with a daily range of $85.02 and a gain of $30.14, or 0.92% [1]. - The market anticipates that any pullback could present a buying opportunity due to the recent recovery pattern [3]. Influencing Factors Summary - Technical pressures and a U.S. court ruling against President Trump's tariffs initially pressured gold prices, but support from buying interest and concerns over stagflation and recession risks led to a rebound [3][7]. - The dollar index showed weakness, which typically supports gold prices, while U.S. Treasury yields had limited impact on gold [5][7]. Economic Indicators Summary - Upcoming economic data releases, including the U.S. core PCE price index and consumer confidence indices, are expected to influence market sentiment, with a general outlook leaning towards initial bullishness followed by potential bearishness [5][12]. Technical Analysis Summary - Monthly charts indicate that gold prices are in a volatile adjustment phase, maintaining above the May moving average, suggesting a continued bullish trend if historical highs are not breached [10][12]. - Weekly charts show a rebound above the 5-week moving average, indicating strengthened bullish momentum and potential for further gains towards $3500 [12]. - Daily charts reveal a bullish triangle pattern, suggesting that any further declines could be seen as buying opportunities [14].

据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月28日，美联储公布了联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）5月6日至7日的会议 纪要。这是美国所谓"对等关税"政策宣布实施一个半月后，美联储的第一份会议纪要，以正式文件形式 反映了美联储官员对形势变化的看法，凸显了美联储当前面临的政策困境，讨论了应对策略，强化了会 议声明和美联储主席鲍威尔新闻发布会的政策立场。 孙长忠（清华大学全球私募股权研究院研究员） 面对这一特殊困境，美联储的最佳应对策略只能是保持谨慎，等待观望。"与会者一致认为，鉴于经济 增长和劳动力市场依然稳健且当前货币政策的限制性适度，（FOMC）委员会完全有能力等待通胀和经 济前景更加明朗。在一系列政府政策调整的净经济效应更加明朗之前，采取谨慎态度是恰当的。"这是 对此前美联储及鲍威尔多次强调"不急于降息""等待成本较低""处于有利态势"等观点和态度的延续和强 化，说明尽管美国通胀和失业均有上升风险，但目前美联储更侧重于通胀方面，不降息本身就是控通胀 优先。 2022年至2023年加息期间，美联储是不惜付出衰退代价也要首先把通胀降下来的，那时及此后美联储也 多次强调价格稳定是实现长期可持续就业最大化的根本和前提。5月美联储会议 ...

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