美联储哈玛克表示，尽管美元并不是央行讨论中的核心议题，但今年美元的走弱似乎并不令人担忧。哈 马克说："我认为今年关于美元以及其走弱的讨论很多。但重要的是要记住，我们是从美元极度强势的 状态开始的，因此今年的走弱在很大程度上只是让美元更接近理论上的公允估值，与其他货币相比更为 合理。"哈马克还表示，利率政策应保持限制性，这样才能对仍令人担忧的通胀水平施加下行压力。她 指出："鉴于美联储在通胀和就业方面的双重使命面临挑战，这是货币政策的一个艰难时期。""但综合 来看，我认为我们需要保持一定程度的紧缩，以继续对通胀施压，使通其回落到我们的目标水 平。"（格隆汇） ...

摘要今日周岁（11月13日）欧盘时段，黄金价格持续攀升，一度触及4213美元的三周高位。美国因政府 停摆致经济数据延迟发布，或暴露经济增长乏力，强化了市场对美联储12月降息的预期，美元承压为黄 金提供支撑。虽美国政府停摆结束、风险情绪回暖限制避险买盘，但金价稳于4200美元上方，彰显多头 强势主导地位。 美联储降息+流动性宽松双轮驱动，黄金与美股齐涨，但通胀预期高悬。彭博策略师McGlone认为，黄 金有望进一步甩开标普500。McGlone指出，美股财富效应超GDP两倍，创百年纪录；标普相对GDP与 全球股市估值达2.3倍（11年前仅1倍）。若向黄金比率靠拢，将引发严重通缩。 美联储独立性受威胁的担忧，已推动金价创历史新高。StoneX分析师奥康奈尔认为，若最高法院支持总 统解雇权，金价可能再涨500美元。分析人士认为，特朗普此举意在安插支持大幅降息的鸽派理事，削 弱美联储独立性。奥康奈尔表示，若裁决有利于总统，将重创美联储公信力，利好黄金并可能压低美 元。尽管口头辩论即将举行，但最终判决不会很快出台，库克短期内将继续留任。目前美联储虽已降 息，但鲍威尔强调12月进一步行动并非必然，市场预计降息概率为65% ...

金价延续涨势创三周新高美联储降息预期与美元疲软双重利好 周四金价在基本面支撑下吸引跟进买盘。 经济忧虑与美联储降息预期令美元承压，利好贵金属走势。 加之投资者仍倾向于美联储采取更鸽派立场，市场已将12月FOMC会议再次降息25个基点的概率定价在60%左右。这反过来对美元构成阻力，并在周四欧洲 时段为无收益的黄金提供支撑。 亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克周三表示："实时指标显示就业市场处于微妙的平衡状态，我认为短期内出现严重劳动力市场衰退的可能性不大。"他进 一步补充道："目前几乎没有迹象表明价格压力和政策下行风险会助长通胀野兽。" 交易员将继续密切关注多位有影响力的联邦公开市场委员会成员的讲话，以获取更多关于美联储未来降息路径的线索。这种前景将对推动美元需求起到关键 作用。尽管如此，基本面背景表明，XAU/USD货币对的阻力最小的路径仍是向上。 美国政府重启带来的乐观情绪未能抑制该商品涨势。 周四欧洲时段前半段，黄金（XAU/USD）延续三日涨势，攀升至三周新高。投资者普遍预期，因美国政府停摆持续，延迟发布的宏观经济数据将显露经济 疲态，促使美联储12月进一步降息。这对无收益的黄金构成额外利好。 此外，美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Senate's passage of the funding and extension bill paves the way to end the government shutdown, while poor employment data suggests the Federal Reserve may continue its rate cuts, supporting gold prices amid rising geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar [1][3]. Market Summary - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.27% to $4,133.20 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increased by 1.52% to $51.08 per ounce [1]. - The U.S. announced a suspension of export control penetration rules from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026 [1]. - The ADP reported a decline of 11,250 jobs in the private sector every two weeks, totaling a loss of 45,000 jobs for the month, excluding government employees [1][3]. - The market outlook indicates a period of consolidation [3].

Core Insights - The report by Thu Lan Nguyen from Deutsche Bank suggests that a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown could negatively impact the dollar if delayed data supports further interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent dollar appreciation is attributed to the absence of official data during the shutdown, which has reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve may pause further rate cuts [1] - Delayed data may indicate a weakening labor market alongside rising inflation, which could influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Focus - The Federal Reserve may prioritize employment over inflation, as managing employment levels is perceived to be more challenging [1] - The recent decline in rate cut expectations is viewed as unreasonable and is interpreted as another argument for a weaker dollar [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold is expected to fluctuate, and there is still a probability of filling the previous gap. The medium - and long - term positive logic for gold remains, including potential Fed rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and central bank gold purchases due to global political and economic instability. It is recommended to hold the remaining long positions in gold medium - term and set stop - profits. For options, wait for opportunities to buy call options again [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental View - **Price Movement**: Since 2025, the price of the London gold and Shanghai gold indexes has increased by 51.55% and 49.17% respectively. Last week, they decreased by - 0.64% and - 0.07% respectively [4][17]. - **Inflation**: In June 2022, the CPI reached a high of 9.1% and then declined. The PCE also peaked in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE showed a downward trend. Since February 2024, the CPI rebounded, and the decline of core inflation slowed or even reversed. In August, the PCE increased to 2.74% year - on - year, and the core PCE to 2.91%. In September, the US CPI inflation rose slightly, while the core CPI fell slightly and was lower than expected [4][20]. - **Interest Rates**: From mid - to late October 2023, the US medium - term Treasury bond yields declined until January this year. Since February 2024, they have rebounded, then fluctuated and declined near last year's high. Since September, they have fallen below the 2024 low and reached a new low [4][24]. - **Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the global gold supply - demand balance became less loose, mainly due to a large increase in investment demand. In China, gold supply increased slightly year - on - year, and demand also recovered, mainly due to a significant increase in investment demand. The central bank's gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. The domestic gold supply - demand is in a tight balance, mainly due to a significant increase in gold bars and coins. In the first half of 2025, investment demand increased significantly [4]. - **US Economy**: In August 2025, the US added 22,000 jobs, far lower than the market expectation of 70,000, reaching the lowest level since October last year. In August 2025, the average hourly wage of US non - farm employees increased by 0.4%, up 0.1% from the previous month. The unemployment rate in July remained at 4.3%. The non - farm employment data in August 2025 continued to be significantly weaker than expected [4][33]. 3.2 Strategy View and Outlook - **Outlook**: Last Friday, the main gold futures contract rebounded after hitting a low, with support at the 30 - day moving average. Gold is expected to fluctuate, and there is a chance to fill the previous gap. After the sharp rise in gold due to the Fed rate - cut expectations, the US government shutdown, and tariff hikes since the end of August, on the evening of October 21, the international gold price dropped significantly. The reasons are the decline in risk - aversion sentiment and profit - taking triggered by the overbought technical condition. However, the medium - and long - term positive factors for gold still exist [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold the remaining long positions in gold medium - term and set stop - profits. Wait for opportunities to buy call options [6]. 3.3 Industry Chain Structure (Periodic and Spot Markets) - Gold prices stopped falling last week. Since 2025, the London gold and Shanghai gold indexes have increased by 51.55% and 49.17% respectively, and last week they decreased by - 0.64% and - 0.07% respectively [15][17]. 3.4 Gold Supply and Demand - **Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: When the gold supply - demand is in a tight balance, it is conducive to rising gold prices; when it is in a weak balance, the impact on gold prices is small. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand became less loose, and in China, the supply increased slightly year - on - year while demand recovered, mainly due to increased investment demand [4][37]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: In the second quarter of 2025, global central bank gold purchases continued to decline to 166.46 tons from 248.57 tons in the first quarter. From November 2022 to April 2024, the People's Bank of China continuously bought gold. After six consecutive months without purchases, it bought gold from November 2024 to September 2025, with a total purchase of 44.16 tons since 2024 [41]. - **ETF Demand**: In 2023, the gold holdings of ETFs decreased by 113.69 tons, and in 2024, they decreased by 28.46 tons. As of November 5, last week, gold ETFs increased their holdings by 1.55 tons, and in 2025, the holdings increased by 254.68 tons [45]. 3.5 Exchange Rate and Dollar Index - The domestic gold market has a slight premium over the international market. The report also presents data on the RMB exchange rate, the dollar index, and the exchange rates between the dollar and other currencies [69]. 3.6 Gold - Silver - Oil Ratio - The report provides data on the gold - silver ratio and the gold - oil ratio [73][75].

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market is experiencing extreme divergence, with the tech giants reaching new highs while the overall market has underperformed globally for 18 consecutive months [1][5][6] - The concentration of gains among the top seven tech companies (Mag-7) is at an all-time high, indicating a narrowing market breadth [6][10] - Despite strong performance from U.S. tech companies, the overall market has not generated excess returns compared to global markets, influenced by a weakening dollar and recovery in non-U.S. markets [5][11] Market Performance - The Nasdaq index has recorded a 5% increase for two consecutive months, but market concentration has reached extreme levels, with the ratio of advancing to declining stocks in the S&P 500 hitting a historical low [3][10] - The top seven tech stocks have significantly outperformed the remaining 493 stocks in the S&P 500, which have remained relatively flat [6][9] Investment Trends - Continuous AI investments by major tech companies are a key factor supporting their stock performance, with companies like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft showing strong growth in their cloud businesses [9] - Meta is facing scrutiny regarding its investment returns, yet it is unlikely to reduce spending due to competitive pressures, as evidenced by its record demand for a $125 billion bond issuance [9] Global Market Dynamics - European markets are undergoing significant changes, with mergers in the satellite industry and ongoing consolidation in the telecommunications sector, indicating a shift towards traditional industries benefiting from AI efficiencies [11][12] - The Asian market outlook remains positive, supported by trends in the dollar and revised GDP expectations for China [14][15]

Core Insights - The price of spot gold has experienced a significant drop of nearly $500 in just seven trading days after reaching a historical high, reflecting market volatility [1] - Central banks globally have been purchasing gold in large quantities, contributing to record high gold prices earlier this year, but recent fluctuations have raised concerns [1] - The former governor of the Philippine central bank highlighted that the country's gold holdings are above the ideal range, suggesting a potential need to sell gold if prices decline [1][2] Market Trends - Gold prices surged past the $4000 mark but quickly retreated, causing market disturbances [1] - The current economic environment, characterized by trade tensions and technical overbought conditions in the gold market, has led to increased interest in gold from both central banks and retail investors [1] - Despite the recent price drop, factors such as slowing economic growth, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a weakening dollar may continue to support gold prices [1] Price Data - As of October 30, 2023, the spot gold price was reported at $3969.59 per ounce, reflecting a 1.04% increase [3]

Core Insights - The global gold market is experiencing significant demand growth, driven primarily by investment needs, with a record total demand of 1313 tons in Q3 2025, amounting to $146 billion [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of October 30, 2025, the London spot gold price reached $3974.16 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over 1% [1] - The average gold price in Q3 2025 hit a record high of $3456.54 per ounce, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5% [1] Group 2: Investment Demand - Investment demand for gold surged to 537 tons in Q3 2025, a 47% year-on-year increase, constituting 55% of the total net demand for the quarter [1] - Investors have significantly increased their holdings in physical gold ETFs, with an additional 222 tons added in Q3 2025, leading to a total inflow of $26 billion [2] Group 3: Gold Supply Dynamics - The total global gold supply reached 1313 tons in Q3 2025, a record high, with gold mine production increasing by 2% to 977 tons and recycled gold supply rising by 6% to 344 tons [3] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, high inflation, and uncertainties in global trade policies are driving the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 4: Central Bank Purchases - Central banks accelerated their gold purchases in Q3 2025, with a net purchase of 220 tons, a 28% increase from Q2 and a 10% year-on-year rise [2]

Core Insights - The World Gold Council's latest report indicates that global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons in Q3 2025, with a total value of $14.6 billion, marking a 44% year-on-year increase [1] - Investment demand surged, accounting for 55% of total net demand, with a year-on-year growth of 47% to 537 tons [1] Group 1: Investment Demand - Global investment demand saw significant growth, with ETF inflows reaching 222 tons (approximately $26 billion) in Q3, marking the third consecutive quarter of substantial increases [1] - Cumulatively, 619 tons flowed into ETFs in the first three quarters, with notable contributions from North America, Europe, and Asia [1] Group 2: Central Bank Purchases - Central banks globally purchased a net total of 220 tons of gold in Q3, reflecting a 28% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 10% year-on-year increase [2] - The People's Bank of China continued to increase its gold reserves, purchasing 5 tons in Q3, bringing its total reserves to 2,304 tons, which constitutes 7.7% of its foreign exchange reserves [2] Group 3: Chinese Market Dynamics - In China, retail gold investment and consumption demand totaled 152 tons in Q3, representing a 7% year-on-year decline and a 38% quarter-on-quarter decline, marking the weakest Q3 performance since 2009 [3] - Despite the volume decline, the monetary value of demand reached 1,204 billion RMB (approximately $16.9 billion), a 29% year-on-year increase, setting a record for Q3 [3] - Gold jewelry demand fell to 84 tons, down 18% year-on-year, but the monetary value increased by 14% to 66.5 billion RMB, indicating consumer willingness to pay for high-premium products [3] Group 4: Gold Supply and Prices - The average gold price in Q3 reached $3,456.54 per ounce, a 40% year-on-year increase [6] - Global gold supply increased by 3% year-on-year to 1,313 tons, with mine production rising by 2% and recycled gold supply increasing by 6% [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The report anticipates a seasonal improvement in gold jewelry consumption in Q4, although high gold prices and the delayed 2026 Spring Festival may suppress growth [7] - Geopolitical risks, ongoing central bank purchases, and potential interest rate cuts are expected to continue supporting gold investment demand [7]