Group 1 - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments in August, with many medium to long-term pure bond funds facing pressure on net value due to rising bond yields and frequent redemptions from bond funds [1] - Fund managers exhibit different strategies in response to the current market conditions, with some actively positioning for buying opportunities while others prefer to shorten duration and enhance liquidity [1] - The People's Bank of China has indicated a commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring ample liquidity in the market, which reduces the likelihood of a significant rise in bond yields [1] Group 2 - The issuance and utilization of government bonds have accelerated this year, with a total of 996 billion yuan in ultra-long special government bonds issued by August 26, achieving a progress rate of 76.6% [2] - Local governments have issued 31,497.6 million yuan in new special bonds, surpassing the issuance scale of the same period last year, which is expected to provide strong support for stable growth [2] - The company bond ETF (511030) has shown a recent price of 106.09 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 1.01% over the past six months [2] Group 3 - The latest scale of the company bond ETF has reached 22.361 billion yuan, with recent fund inflows and outflows remaining balanced [3] - Over the past five trading days, the company bond ETF has attracted a total of 31.8173 million yuan in net inflows, indicating sustained interest from leveraged funds [3] - The company bond ETF has achieved a net value increase of 13.47% over the past five years, with a historical monthly return of up to 1.22% and a 100% probability of profit over a three-year holding period [3][4] Group 4 - The maximum drawdown for the company bond ETF in the past six months was 0.19%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.08% [4] - The management fee for the company bond ETF is set at 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [5] Group 5 - The company bond ETF has maintained a tracking error of 0.013% this year, closely following the China Bond - Medium to High Grade Corporate Bond Spread Factor Index [6] - The index serves as a performance benchmark for investments in medium to high-grade corporate bonds, with adjustments made quarterly based on market conditions [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity futures, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Commodities**: PTA, ethylene glycol, palm oil, PVC, and crude oil had positive weekly price changes with rates of 3.22%, 1.41%, 1.40%, 1.31%, and 1.13% respectively from August 18 to August 22, 2025. While silver, methanol, gold, copper, aluminum, corn, pig, iron ore, soybean meal, rebar, polysilicon, glass, and coking coal had negative changes, with coking coal dropping 5.53% [2] - **A - shares**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, CSI 500, and SSE 50 had positive weekly price changes of 4.18%, 3.87%, and 3.38% respectively [2] - **Overseas Stocks**: The FTSE 100, France CAC40, and Hang Seng Index had positive changes of 2.00%, 0.58%, and 0.27% respectively, while the Nasdaq Index and Nikkei 225 had negative changes of - 0.58% and - 1.72% respectively [2] - **Bonds**: The 5 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year Chinese government bonds had positive price changes of 4.20%, 2.21%, and 1.83% respectively [2] - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate had a positive change of 0.16%, while the US dollar central parity rate and the US dollar index had negative changes of - 0.07% and - 0.12% respectively [2] 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 3 were neutral. Bullish factors included the Fed's dovish signal, relaxation of Shanghai's real - estate purchase restrictions, expectations of further stimulus policies, central bank's net liquidity injection, and increased trading volume and record - high margin trading balance. Bearish factors included weaker - than - expected economic data, cooling effect of earnings reports, over - heated small - cap stock trading, and short - term correction risk after a rapid rise [4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 4 were bearish, and 2 were neutral. Bullish factors included the Fed's dovish signal, lower - than - expected social financing and credit data, and the central bank's clear attitude to maintain market liquidity. Bearish factors included the strong stock market, seasonal issuance peak in the third quarter, more sensitive stock market to the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and weak expectation of further policy easing [4] 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 3 were bearish, and 3 were neutral. Bullish factors included the Fed's dovish signal, unexpected decline in US crude oil inventory, seasonal rebound in US gasoline crack spread, and potential increase in sanctions against Russia. Bearish factors included weak euro - zone macro - economy, OPEC +'s planned production increase, significant production growth in Latin American countries, and weakening of crude oil calendar spread [5] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 4 were neutral. Bullish factors included lower - than - expected US biodiesel exemption, slow inventory growth in Malaysia, low - inventory environment before the production - reduction period, and declining inventory in Indonesia. Bearish factors included the Indonesian palm - oil industry's call to re - evaluate the B50 plan, rising inventory in China, short - term correction risk after a sharp rise, and a significant increase in Indonesia's palm - oil production in June [5] 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 5 were neutral. Bullish factors included Powell's dovish remarks, improved macro - sentiment, tight overseas mine supply, and expected increase in downstream restocking demand. Bearish factors included uncertain impact of tariffs on demand, increased non - US supply due to US copper tariff policy, stable but weak restocking demand at high prices, and increased domestic electrolytic copper production in July [6] 3.2.5 Chemicals Sector - **Glass**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were neutral. Bullish factors included real - estate policy - driven demand improvement, traditional demand peak season in September, and enhanced bottom - valuation support. Bearish factors included lower spot transaction prices, large premium of the 01 contract, increasing inventory pressure of float - glass factories, and weakening cost support from coal price decline [6] 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 5 were neutral. Bullish factors included Powell's dovish speech, US economic stagflation expectation, and mid - term de - dollarization logic. Bearish factors included the market having priced in the Fed's rate - cut expectation, progress in trade negotiations, and lack of strong upward momentum [7] 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 4 were neutral. Bullish factors included the eighth round of coke price increase, high expected molten - iron output, stricter safety supervision before early September, and a coal - mine accident in Fujian. Bearish factors included increased Mongolian coal imports, weakened downstream purchasing enthusiasm, expected production cuts by downstream steel mills and coking plants at the end of August, and the opening of the Australian coal import window [7]

Group 1 - The stock market shows a strong trend while the bond market faces challenges, leading to a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds [1][4] - The yield on 10-year and 30-year government bonds has increased by 14 basis points and 23 basis points respectively since early July, reaching 1.7818% and 2.0775% [1] - The bond market sentiment remains cautious despite a slight recovery potential as the 10-year government bond yield approaches the 1.8% mark [4] Group 2 - The macroeconomic fundamentals of the bond market have not changed significantly, with weak financing demand and a reasonably ample liquidity environment providing support [2] - In July, social financing continued to show a divergence in total and structural characteristics, with government bond issuance being a major contributor while real financing demand remains weak [2] - Economic data for July indicates weakening demand pressures, with notable declines in investment, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing [2][3] Group 3 - The current economic strength suggests that achieving annual growth targets is not overly pressured, with rising commodity prices contributing to a rebound in inflation expectations [3] - The monetary policy is in a "comfortable zone," with no immediate motivation for active easing, and the probability of rate cuts further decreasing in the third quarter [3] - Recent policies aimed at supporting personal consumption loans and service industry loans reflect a coordinated effort between fiscal and monetary policies to boost consumption and stabilize employment [3][4] Group 4 - A new "quasi-fiscal" tool worth 500 billion yuan is set to be implemented, focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure, which can enhance effective investment [4] - The market has experienced three phases since the beginning of the year: tightening liquidity in Q1, a dual bull market in Q2, and a renewed "see-saw" effect in Q3 driven by strong policy support [4] - The future of the "see-saw" market trend will depend on whether the positive expectations for the economic fundamentals can translate into reality and the direction of monetary policy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant adjustments, with rising yields leading to a decline in bond prices, prompting various strategies among fixed-income fund managers to navigate the current environment [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bond market has shown a "see-saw" effect with the stock market, where bond yields have increased, leading to a notable decline in the net value of medium- and long-term pure bond funds [1][2]. - As of August 25, the Wind data indicates that the index for medium- and long-term pure bond funds has decreased by 0.17% since the beginning of August, with over 120 funds experiencing a drop of more than 0.7% [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield rose from approximately 1.65% in early July to around 1.8% by late August, reflecting the market's volatility [1][2]. Group 2: Fund Manager Strategies - Some fund managers are adopting aggressive strategies, viewing the current market conditions as a buying opportunity, with expectations that the 10-year government bond yield could return to around 1.65% by year-end [2][3]. - Other managers are taking a more cautious approach, suggesting that while some bond varieties are becoming more attractive, the timing for significant investments has not yet arrived [3]. - Fund managers are focusing on adjusting their portfolios, with some opting to reduce duration and enhance liquidity in response to market conditions [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts maintain a cautiously optimistic view on the bond market, anticipating that macroeconomic stability will persist into 2025, particularly in the fourth quarter [4]. - The expectation is that the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a loose monetary policy, which could support the bond market and lead to a gradual decline in long-term bond yields [4]. - Long-term trends suggest that the bond market will remain strong, with a likelihood of lower yield levels as the central bank engages in measures such as purchasing government bonds and adjusting reserve requirements [4].

Group 1 - As of July 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in China reached 35.08 trillion yuan, marking a 2.01% increase from the end of June 2025, and setting a new historical record for the tenth consecutive month since 2024 [1] - Open-end funds are the primary driver of growth in public fund assets, with their net asset value totaling 31.33 trillion yuan as of July 2025, while closed-end funds accounted for 3.74 trillion yuan [1] - The growth in open-end funds includes increases in scale, shares, and number, with respective increases of 710.61 billion yuan, 158.90 billion shares, and 108 new funds compared to the end of June 2025 [1] Group 2 - Among various fund types, money market funds saw significant growth in July 2025, with an increase of 381.38 billion yuan in scale and 379.69 billion shares [2] - Equity funds and mixed funds also experienced notable growth, with stock funds increasing by 192.59 billion yuan and mixed funds by 138.56 billion yuan by the end of July 2025 [2] - Despite the growth in equity funds, their shares decreased, with stock funds down by 11.47 billion shares and mixed funds down by 3.71 billion shares compared to the end of June 2025 [2] Group 3 - Recent demand-side support policies in areas such as fertility, consumption, and infrastructure are expected to show positive effects in the medium to long term, with improvements in financial data indicating active policy implementation [3] - The market shows strong demand for high-return assets, driven by factors such as the ongoing "technology narrative" and the coexistence of high growth in household savings and "asset scarcity" [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the report is provided [1][2][6] Group 2: Core Views - Since August, the bond market has undergone significant adjustments, especially in the long - end, with the overall bond market showing a bear - steepening trend, and the interest rate adjustment exceeding that of credit. The market is concerned about the end of the adjustment and the opportunity and scope for the subsequent recovery. The bond market adjustment inflection point requires two conditions: the full release of pessimistic expectations and the emergence of at least one widely - recognized bullish main line [2][6][15] - Currently, the pessimistic expectations in the bond market may have been basically released. Three possible bullish main lines are: the stock and bond markets moving independently, the central bank's potential interest rate cut from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, and the confirmation of the inflection point of the social financing growth rate. Among them, the first and the third scenarios are more likely, while the expectation of the central bank's interest rate cut needs further observation. The current bond market inflection point signal is clear, and the 10 - year Treasury yield may face strong resistance around 1.8%. It is recommended to seize the bond market opportunities arising from the adjustment [2][10][38] Group 3: Summary by Directory 8 - month Bond Market Adjustment - Since August, the bond market has adjusted significantly, with the long - end adjustment being more prominent. From August 1st to 22nd, the 30 - year Treasury yield rose by 13bps to 2.08%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose by 8bps to 1.78%, while the short - end 1 - year Treasury yield slightly declined. The adjustment of 5 - year and 10 - year secondary bonds exceeded 10bps, and the adjustment of other credit products was mostly within 5bps [15] Bond Market Pessimistic Expectations - A typical bond market adjustment process is: slow decline - sharp decline - slow decline - stabilization, corresponding to market expectations of doubt - wavering - panic selling - recovery. If public funds conduct large - scale continuous net selling and insurance allocation power significantly increases, it can be judged that the bond market has probably been fully adjusted [10][17] - During the recent bond market adjustment, from June 17th to July 22nd, the bond market declined slowly; from July 23rd to 29th, it declined sharply, with public funds selling large - scale long - term interest - rate bonds and insurance increasing positions; from July 30th to August 8th, the market recovered; from August 11th to 22nd, it adjusted again, with public funds selling long - term interest - rate bonds and insurance increasing positions. The adjustment may have basically ended [18] - The decline in the liability costs of banks and insurance companies has increased the attractiveness of the bond market to allocation investors after the adjustment. When the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches 1.80% and the 30 - year Treasury yield approaches 2.1%, the adjustment momentum weakens [19] Bullish Main Lines - The most likely main line is that the stock market ends its unilateral upward trend, or the bond market moves independently of the stock market. Recently, the bond market has gradually shown independent movements. The stock - bond seesaw effect may not last. The current PMI data indicates that the fundamentals may still be under pressure, and the central bank has maintained ample liquidity, which is conducive to the bond market's independent movement [10][25][26] - Another possible main line is the central bank's potential interest - rate cut from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. Although the Fed's interest - rate cut may open up space for domestic interest - rate cuts, considering the current deep inversion of the Sino - US interest - rate spread, the "domestic - oriented" monetary policy, and the possible "combination - punch" approach of the central bank, this main line needs further clarification [10][28][29] - The third possible main line is the confirmation of the inflection point of the social financing growth rate. Social financing growth has been declining since August and is expected to continue until the end of the year. The social financing growth rate is predicted to reach a peak of about 9.0% from July to August and then gradually decline to about 8.2% by the end of the year. Even if special refinancing bonds are issued, their impact on social financing is only temporary [10][35][38]

Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income research report released on August 26, 2025, aiming to analyze the bond market adjustment and provide investment suggestions through historical review, institutional cost assessment, and market sentiment analysis [1][10] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - During the equity bull market from 2014 - 2025, the performance of the bond market was not unilaterally opposed to the stock market but depended on the dynamic balance of risk preference and capital flow [3] - The current bond market correction is more like a "topping - out period" rather than a "peaking period". The upward space and time of interest rates are constrained by factors such as the return of allocation, policy soft constraints, and marginal improvement in supply and demand [4] - It is recommended to adhere to the "bottom - line thinking", focusing on the upper - bound constraint of interest rates and entry opportunities. If the risk preference is extremely priced and the 10Y - 1Y spread reaches 50 - 60BP, the corresponding 10 - year Treasury bond yield of 1.85% - 1.95% is the bottom - line range [4] Summary by Directory 1. 2014 - 2025, Review of Bond Market Trends in Previous Stock Bull Markets 1.1 2014–2015: Bull and Divergence of Stocks and Bonds Driven by Loose Pattern and Expectation Divergence - In the early stage (June - November 2014), with the promotion of reform expectations and loose signals, the stock and bond markets showed a short - term "double - bull" pattern [11] - From November to December 2014, after the central bank's interest rate cut and price mechanism reform, the stock market accelerated, while the bond market showed "profit - taking", presenting a "stock - up, bond - down" situation [11] - From December 2014 to February 2015, during the stock market consolidation period, the bond market had a repair opportunity, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped by more than 45bp [11] - From March to April 2015, with the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates and the expansion of leveraged funds, the stock market accelerated, and the bond market showed an "N - shaped" shock [11] - From May to June 2015, with the influx of leveraged funds into the stock market, the bond market was under pressure, showing a typical "strong - stock, weak - bond" situation [11] 1.2 2016 - 2017: "First Bull, Then Bear" in the Bond Market under the Background of Supply - side Reform and De - leveraging - From June to August 2016, due to the supply - side reform and loose monetary policy, the stock and bond markets both rose [14] - From September 2016 to February 2017, the stock market continued to rise, while the bond market was under pressure due to the expectation of economic stabilization and inflation recovery, presenting a "stock - up, bond - down" situation [14] - From March to May 2017, due to domestic de - leveraging, tightened monetary policy, and external shocks, the stock and bond markets both declined [14] - From the second half of 2017 to the end of 2017, the stock market was strong, and the bond market was weak, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield approaching 4.0% [14][16] 1.3 2019–2021: Deduction of the Stock - Bond Seesaw and Structural Bull Market - In 2019, during the GEM bull market, the stock market was strong, and the bond market was stable with a narrow - range fluctuation of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield around 3.1% - 3.2% [17] - In 2020, affected by the epidemic, the bond market first entered a bull market, and then the stock market became strong again after the economic recovery, showing a seesaw effect [19] - In 2021, with the weakening of growth momentum, the bond market returned to a bull market, and the stock market still had structural opportunities, showing a phased resonance [19] 2. In the Assumption of an Equity Bull Market, What Stage is the Current Bond Market Correction in? 2.1 In This Round of Bond Market Correction, the Interest Rates of Some Varieties are Close to the Holding - Cost Lines of Product Accounts - For wealth management products, as of the week of August 24, the 1 - year cost yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 3.28BP higher than the average interest rate of certificates of deposit, and the 1 - year cost yield of 0 - 1Y policy - financial bonds was 1.86BP lower than the 1 - year CDB bond yield [22] - For funds, as of the week of August 24, the 1.5 - year cost yield of 7 - 10Y policy - financial bonds was 16.14BP higher than the 10 - year CDB bond average, and the 1.5 - year cost yield of 10Y+ Treasury bonds was 23.36BP lower than the 30 - year Treasury bond yield [22] - In terms of institutional trading behavior, insurance institutions increased their net positions in ultra - long - term bonds, rural financial institutions adjusted their positions, and wealth management products shifted from the interest - rate style to the credit style [23] 2.2 Analyzing the Market's Deduction Space from Micro - sentiment Indicators - The stock - bond seesaw effect is still significant, but the upper bound of long - term yields may be gradually clear. The stock market is hot, while the bond market sentiment is controllable [30] - The stock - bond yield spread shows that the cost - performance of bond assets has increased, attracting the return of some allocation - type institutions [30] - The scale of wealth management products is under pressure, with an increase weaker than the seasonal level, but it remains relatively stable. There is no large - scale redemption of fixed - income funds [31] 2.3 Bond Market Outlook: Adjustment May Have Intervals. Pay Attention to the "Topping - out - Returning" Rhythm with Bottom - line Thinking - The current bond market correction is relatively moderate, and the upward space and time of interest rates are constrained. Wealth management products and bond funds still have safety cushions and profit margins [34] - The central bank has increased liquidity injection. If interest rates over - adjust, the probability of the central bank's intervention will increase [34] - The supply - demand relationship may improve marginally. The peak of bond issuance has passed, and the return of allocation demand will help balance supply and demand [35] - The economic growth and inflation are in a moderate range, and the bond market pricing will return to the center determined by the fundamentals and policy interest rates. It is recommended to use bottom - line thinking for long - term interest - rate bond allocation [36]

Core Viewpoint - The total scale of public funds in China has surpassed 35 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching a historical high of 35.08 trillion yuan as of the end of July 2025, driven primarily by net asset value growth rather than an increase in fund shares [2][4][8]. Fund Scale and Growth - As of July 2025, the total number of public fund management institutions in China is 164, including 149 fund management companies and 15 asset management institutions with public qualifications [4]. - The overall fund scale increased by 1.99% from the end of June, while the total share of public funds saw a slight increase of 0.40% [5][12]. - The public fund market has shown a strong upward trend since April 2025, with continuous monthly records being set, including surpassing 33 trillion yuan in April, 34 trillion yuan in June, and 35 trillion yuan in July [8][6]. Fund Type Performance - In July, the share of closed-end funds decreased by 1.07%, while open-end funds saw a slight increase of 0.58% [11]. - Equity funds and mixed funds experienced a decline in shares, with equity fund shares down 0.33% and mixed fund shares down 1.22%, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors [12][13]. - Despite the decline in shares, the net asset values of equity funds increased, with equity fund scale growing by 1925.94 billion yuan (4.07%) to reach 4.92 trillion yuan, and mixed fund scale increasing by 1385.56 billion yuan (3.76%) [13]. Trends in Specific Fund Categories - The bond fund scale decreased by 481.92 billion yuan (0.66%) to 7.24 trillion yuan, while the money market fund scale increased by 3813.84 billion yuan (2.68%) to 14.61 trillion yuan [15]. - QDII funds also saw significant growth, with shares and scale increasing by 3.87% and 6.77%, respectively, reaching a total scale of 7300.44 billion yuan, marking a historical high [15].

智通财经8月26日讯（记者 李迪）股票市场回暖之际，公募基金总规模也再度实现突破。 7月底，我国公募基金总规模达35.08万亿元，首破35万亿元，并自2024年初以来第十次创历史新高。 分类型来看，货币基金在7月实现规模猛增3813.84亿元，QDII基金也增长超460亿。 股票基金和混合基金的规模在7月也分别增长1925.94亿、1385.56亿元，但份额却小幅下降。这意味着， 随着市场回暖和基金收益上行，一些回本或减亏的投资者正在赎回权益类产品。 值得注意的是，今年年初公募基金总规模曾短暂下行，1月底时跌破32万亿元大关。而随着经济持续复 苏和股市震荡上行，我国公募基金总规模迅速重拾升势，并且多次突破历史新高。展望未来，业内人士 预计，随着市场回暖、新型产品推出和被动投资迅速发展，我国公募基金规模有望继续稳健增长。 赎回压力导致股基、混合基份额微降 分类型来看，今年7月，股票基金和混合基金的规模分别增长1925.94亿元和1385.56亿元。 此外，其他类型基金实现规模增长时，债券基金总规模却在7月下降。这是因为，在"股债跷跷板"效应 的影响下，债券基金正面临一定的赎回压力。不过业内人士认为，债市未来仍有 ...

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments in August, leading to pressure on the net value of many medium- and long-term pure bond funds due to rising interest rates and fund redemptions [1][2] - Fund managers are adopting different strategies in response to the current market conditions, with some actively increasing positions, viewing current yields as a buying opportunity, while others are cautiously observing and prefer to shorten duration and enhance liquidity [1][2] - The 10-year government bond yield has fluctuated, dropping below 1.65% in early July and approaching 1.8% by late August, indicating a volatile bond market [2] Group 2 - Some fund managers believe that while the value of certain bond types is becoming more apparent, it is not yet the right time for a right-side layout, expecting short-term volatility in the bond market [3] - The outlook for the bond market remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a low interest rate environment and continued monetary policy support, which will help maintain liquidity in the market [3] - Strategies include gradually increasing positions in long bonds when the 10-year government bond yield exceeds 1.75%, as the foundation of the bond market remains intact despite short-term disturbances from commodities and equity markets [3]