Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper prices due to expected macroeconomic improvements, despite current trade tensions and inventory fluctuations [3]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 10% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 6% [4]. - As of May 16, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 820,000 tons, down 9% from the previous week [4]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 432,000 tons as of May 9, 2025, a decrease of 0.6% [4]. Raw Materials - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 1,667 RMB/ton as of May 16, 2025, an increase of 372 RMB/ton from May 9 [5]. - Domestic old scrap copper production in April 2025 was 88,000 tons, down 20% month-on-month and 22.5% year-on-year [5]. Smelting - In April 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,125,700 tons, a 0.3% increase month-on-month and a 14.3% increase year-on-year [6]. - The TC spot price as of May 16, 2025, was -43.03 USD/pound, reflecting a slight increase but remaining at the lowest level since September 2007 [6]. - From January to March 2025, the cumulative net import of electrolytic copper was 725,000 tons, a decrease of 17.7% year-on-year [6]. Demand - The cable industry accounted for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with a cable enterprise operating rate of 83.39% as of May 15, 2025, down 0.1 percentage points week-on-week [7]. - The air conditioning sector, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, saw copper tube production of 189,000 tons in April 2025, down 1.8% month-on-month and 7.1% year-on-year [7]. - Copper rod production, which constitutes about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, had a brass rod operating rate of 55.0% in April 2025, up 0.6 percentage points but down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Futures - As of May 16, 2025, the SHFE copper active contract position was 180,000 lots, a decrease of 3.9% week-on-week, placing it at the 49th percentile since 1995 [8]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 22,000 lots as of May 13, 2025, down 0.8% week-on-week, at the 58th percentile since 1990 [8].

Report Title - Trade conflict eases, black commodities rebound from lows. Steel and ore weekly report (May 19, 2025) [1] Report Authors - Xie Chen, Yang Hui from the Black Industry Group of Zhengxin Futures Industry Research Center [2] Report Main Views Steel - Price: Spot prices soared, and the futures market rebounded from lows. The main contract of rebar rose 1.99% to close at 3014, and the spot price in East China reached 3210 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [6][11]. - Supply: Blast furnace production declined from its peak, while electric furnace production stopped falling and rebounded. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.15%, down 0.47 percentage points week-on-week. The average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 75.2%, up 2.47 percentage points week-on-week [6][14][22]. - Inventory: Building material inventories were depleted at an accelerated pace, and plate inventories decreased simultaneously. Rebar mill inventories decreased by 3.28 tons week-on-week, and social inventories decreased by 30.48 tons. Hot-rolled coil mill inventories decreased by 6.58 tons, and social inventories decreased by 10.97 tons [6][39][43]. - Demand: Building material demand increased month-on-month, and plate demand remained resilient. From May 8th to May 14th, the national cement delivery volume was 3.5835 million tons, up 7.5% month-on-month. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils remained high due to the 90-day export rush [6][28][31]. - Profit: Blast furnace profits continued to expand, and electric furnace profits at off-peak hours turned positive. The steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, up 0.44 percentage points week-on-week. The average profit of independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was -81 yuan/ton, and the off-peak profit was 24 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week-on-week [6][36]. - Basis: The basis narrowed slightly, and attention was paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities. The basis of rebar 10 contract narrowed by 10 compared with last week [6][47]. - Summary: The easing of trade conflicts has digested the bullish factors, and the market may return to seasonal characteristics. Maintain a medium-term shorting strategy. Hold existing short positions and consider shorting lightly for those with no positions [6]. Iron Ore - Price: Ore prices rose slightly, and the futures market rebounded strongly. The main contract of iron ore rose 4.6% to close at 728, and the spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port rose 11 yuan to 765 yuan/ton [6][59]. - Supply: Australian and Brazilian shipments declined, and arrivals decreased simultaneously. The global iron ore shipment volume was 30.29 million tons, down 220,000 tons week-on-week. The 47-port iron ore arrival volume was 25.7 million tons, down 640,000 tons week-on-week [6][62][68]. - Demand: Blast furnace production declined, but demand remained at a relatively high level. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4477 million tons, down 8,700 tons week-on-week [6][70][71]. - Inventory: Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream inventories declined simultaneously. The 47-port iron ore inventory was 147.4699 million tons, down 180,000 tons week-on-week. The imported sinter powder inventory of 114 steel mills was 27.1467 million tons, down 443,300 tons week-on-week [6][78][81]. - Shipping: Shipping prices rebounded. The freight rate from Western Australia to China was 7.85 US dollars/ton, up 0.3 US dollars/ton week-on-week. The freight rate from Brazil to China was 18.8 US dollars/ton, up 0.37 US dollars/ton week-on-week [6][84]. - Spread: The futures spread widened, and the coke-to-ore ratio dropped significantly. The 9-1 spread of iron ore was 36, up 10 compared with last week. The coke-to-ore ratio was 1.99, and the rebar-to-ore ratio was 4.25, both narrowing [6][87][90]. - Summary: Last week, supply and demand both declined month-on-month. Affected by macro shocks, ore prices rebounded strongly. Considering the drag of finished products in the off-season, the probability of further price increases is low. Maintain a long-term bearish view and pay attention to trading opportunities when prices fall back to previous lows [6].

今日周一（5月19日)欧盘时段，白银期货今日开盘于8020元/千克，截至发稿，白银期货暂8132元/千 克，上涨0.33%，最高触及8157元/千克，最低下探8016元/千克，目前来看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看 涨走势。 【要闻速递】 尽管经济调查数据显示消费者情绪恶化。标普500指数从上午晚些时候开始稳步扩大涨幅，而投资者对 疲软的数据也泰然处之。密西根大学消费者调查显示，5月份消费者情绪指数进一步下滑，而一年期通 胀预期从上月的6.5%飙升至7.3%。 Clearnomics 首席市场策略师Lindsey Bell表示，上周五的上涨是 "贸易冲突降级的延续"。 投资者还在等待美国税收政策的明朗化，因为特朗普的全面税收法案未能通过一个关键的程序性障碍， 因为要求更大幅度削减开支的强硬派共和党人阻止了这一措施，这是共和党总统在国会遭遇的罕见政治 挫折。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银短期上方压力区间8255-8265元/千克附近，下方支撑区间7925-7935元/千克附近。 由于经济稳健，加上投资者悲观，Bell预计随着关税头条新闻的出炉，未来将出现更多波动，并补充 说，"未来几个月的数据可能会发生变化，我认为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with prices fluctuating dramatically due to geopolitical risks and trade conflicts, particularly influenced by actions from the Trump administration [1][2]. Market Analysis - The current market is characterized by a lack of sustainability in price movements, where both upward and downward trends are often short-lived, providing limited opportunities for traders to enter positions [1][2]. - Recent trading patterns indicate that after a strong upward movement, any significant pullback can signal a lack of continuation in the bullish trend, making it crucial for traders to monitor the extent of these pullbacks [2][5]. Price Levels and Trading Strategy - As of the latest trading session, gold prices opened strongly but faced a critical support level at $3227-$3230, which must hold for bullish sentiment to continue; a breach below this level could lead to further declines [3][6]. - The resistance level is identified at $3252, and traders are advised to reconsider long positions unless this level is reclaimed, as failure to do so may indicate a bearish trend [5][8]. - The potential downside targets are set between $3180 and $3170 if the market fails to maintain the critical support levels [6][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short - term, consider taking phased profit - taking operations or defensive strategies [8]. - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is bullish, the medium - term is bearish, and band trading is recommended [9]. - For container shipping on the European route, the uncertainty of shipping companies' price increases in June exists, and the possibility of price increases in late June is greater [11]. - For cotton, the domestic cotton market is likely to rebound under pressure at a low level [12][13]. - For sugar, the sugar price shows an oscillating trend due to sufficient supply and uncertain supply - demand gap [14][15]. - For palm oil and soybean meal, the short - term trend is expected to be weak [16]. - For eggs, it is recommended to maintain a bearish view on egg futures [17][18][19]. - For apples, it is recommended to mainly use light - position positive spreads [20]. - For red dates, it is advisable to consider short - selling at high prices and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area [21]. - For live pigs, it is recommended to take a bearish approach [21][22]. - For crude oil, pay attention to the range of Brent crude oil between $57 - 67 [23]. - For fuel oil, the price follows the rebound of crude oil, with a short - term increase stronger than that of crude oil [24]. - For plastics, beware of callback risks and turn short when the spot fails to follow up [25]. - For rubber, be cautious when chasing long positions during rallies, and the overall trend is range - bound [26]. - For methanol, beware of callback risks [27]. - For caustic soda, the SH2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [28]. - For soda ash, the short - term price has limited upward and downward space, and the medium - long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [30][31]. - For glass, the price is expected to oscillate or oscillate weakly [30][31]. - For asphalt, it is expected to follow the decline of oil prices and approach 3400 [31]. - For the polyester industry chain, a short - term oscillating approach is recommended, and in the medium - term, consider short - selling at pressure levels or PX, PTA 9 - 1 reverse spreads [31][32]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the futures price may rebound after the short - term tariff impact, but the space is limited [32][33]. - For pulp, the short - term trend is oscillating, and pay attention to the inventory rhythm [33]. - For logs, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating, and consider buying out - of - the - money call options at low prices in the medium - long - term [33]. - For urea, the futures direction is consistent with the call for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices [33]. - For aluminum, it is recommended to buy on dips [33]. - For alumina, consider short - selling lightly when the upward trend stalls, and buy on deep dips for basis repair [33]. - For lithium carbonate, an oscillating approach is recommended [34]. - For industrial silicon, maintain a bearish view before effective supply reduction in the wet season [35][36]. - For polysilicon, the near - month contract may have basis repair power, and the overall trend is weakly oscillating [35][36]. - For steel and ore, the short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - long - term is expected to be weak [36][38][39]. - For coking coal and coke, there is no condition for going long before large - scale production cuts or a decline in Mongolian coal imports [40]. - For ferroalloys, a medium - term bearish approach at high prices is recommended [41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - Multiple public - fund industry insiders stated that the recent analysis of market rebalancing due to public - fund assessment benchmarks is inaccurate and lacks basis, and there is no large - scale rebalancing of public - fund products [7]. - Trump will set new tariff rates for US trading partners in the next two to three weeks [7]. - Moody's downgraded the US rating from AAA to AA1 and adjusted the outlook from negative to stable, expecting the US federal debt burden to rise to 134% of GDP by 2035 and the federal deficit to reach 9% of GDP [7]. - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs opposed the US's malicious blockade and suppression of Chinese chips [7]. - Russia and Ukraine held their first direct negotiation in three years, with different views on the negotiation results [7]. - The US and the EU launched trade negotiations to avoid the worst impact of Trump's tariff policies [7]. - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in May dropped to 50.8, with the 1 - year inflation expectation at 7.3% and the 5 - year inflation expectation at 4.6% [7]. - In March, overseas creditors' total holdings of US Treasury bonds increased by $233.1 billion to $9.05 trillion, with Japan increasing its holdings and China decreasing its holdings [7]. - The Trump administration plans to introduce a remittance tax for non - citizens [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - Affected by US chip information, small - and medium - cap indexes are weak. The weighting index may reach short - term consistency in the adjustment of public - fund allocation logic and then decline. The current congestion of the CSI 1000 index is high, and the market may consolidate in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - After the reserve requirement ratio cut, the money market fluctuated. The short - term outlook is bullish, the medium - term is bearish, and band trading is recommended [9]. 3.4 Container Shipping on the European Route - The market has entered a wait - and - see stage for price increases. The uncertainty of shipping companies' price increases in June exists, and the possibility of price increases in late June is greater [10][11]. 3.5 Cotton - Last week, ICE US cotton prices continued to decline, and the domestic cotton market was under pressure. The cotton market is expected to operate in a low - level oscillation, and the domestic cotton price may rebound under pressure [12][13]. 3.6 Sugar - ICE raw sugar continued to decline last Friday, and domestic sugar prices followed. The expected increase in supply restricts sugar prices, and the domestic sugar price shows an oscillating trend [14][15]. 3.7 Oils and Oilseeds - Palm oil: Affected by the delay in US biofuel policy formulation, the short - term trend is expected to be weak [16]. - Soybean meal: With the acceleration of soybean customs clearance, the domestic oil - mill operating rate has recovered, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak [16]. 3.8 Eggs - The spot price was weak on Friday, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view on egg futures [17][18][19]. 3.9 Apples - The current apple market in the western and eastern production areas is in the young - fruit stage, and the market is oscillating. It is recommended to mainly use light - position positive spreads [20]. 3.10 Red Dates - The market price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating. It is advisable to consider short - selling at high prices and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area [21]. 3.11 Live Pigs - The narrowing of the standard - fat price spread has led to an increase in the slaughter of large - weight pigs, suppressing the price of standard pigs. It is recommended to take a bearish approach [21][22]. 3.12 Crude Oil - The market's expectation of demand has improved, and international oil prices have risen. The short - term focus is on the range of Brent crude oil between $57 - 67 [22][23]. 3.13 Fuel Oil - The price follows the rebound of crude oil, with a short - term increase stronger than that of crude oil [24]. 3.14 Plastics - Short - term market sentiment has improved, but beware of callback risks [25]. 3.15 Rubber - The domestic raw - material supply is progressing moderately, and the market is oscillating. Be cautious when chasing long positions during rallies [26]. 3.16 Methanol - After the emotional rebound, the fundamental situation has not improved significantly. Beware of callback risks [27]. 3.17 Caustic Soda - The SH2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly under the influence of the fundamentals and the macro - environment [28]. 3.18 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash: The short - term price has limited upward and downward space, and the medium - long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [30][31]. - Glass: The price is expected to oscillate or oscillate weakly, and pay attention to the cold - repair rhythm of glass factories [30][31]. 3.19 Asphalt - It is expected to follow the decline of oil prices and approach 3400 [31]. 3.20 Polyester Industry Chain - A short - term oscillating approach is recommended, and in the medium - term, consider short - selling at pressure levels or PX, PTA 9 - 1 reverse spreads [31][32]. 3.21 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The futures price may rebound after the short - term tariff impact, but the space is limited [32][33]. 3.22 Pulp - The short - term trend is oscillating, and pay attention to the inventory rhythm [33]. 3.23 Logs - The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating, and consider buying out - of - the - money call options at low prices in the medium - long - term [33]. 3.24 Urea - The futures direction is consistent with the call for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices [33]. 3.25 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: It is recommended to buy on dips [33]. - Alumina: Consider short - selling lightly when the upward trend stalls, and buy on deep dips for basis repair [33]. 3.26 Lithium Carbonate - An oscillating approach is recommended [34]. 3.27 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: Maintain a bearish view before effective supply reduction in the wet season [35][36]. - Polysilicon: The near - month contract may have basis repair power, and the overall trend is weakly oscillating [35][36]. 3.28 Steel and Ore - The short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - long - term is expected to be weak [36][38][39]. 3.29 Coking Coal and Coke - There is no condition for going long before large - scale production cuts or a decline in Mongolian coal imports [40]. 3.30 Ferroalloys - A medium - term bearish approach at high prices is recommended [41].

Group 1 - BlackRock anticipates a supply-driven economic contraction in the U.S. but sees opportunities created by AI, increased fiscal spending, and higher interest rates, leading to a positive outlook on developed market equities despite potential volatility [1] - European financial stocks have risen by 20% due to the high interest rate environment, while Spain's stock market is favored due to its low exposure to U.S. tariffs, with only 5% of exports directed to the U.S. [1][6] - Gold is outperforming U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset, potentially benefiting from increased demand due to new banking regulations [1][6] Group 2 - BlackRock has revised down the S&P 500 earnings growth forecast from 14% in January to 8.5%, indicating a larger-than-average decline as economic activity slows [4] - The firm believes that the economic activity may rebound quickly if U.S.-China tariffs are reduced, creating specific opportunities across various sectors and regions [4] - AI is expected to continue driving earnings growth, with the "Big Seven" tech companies seeing a 30% increase in earnings compared to 8% for other market companies [4] Group 3 - Three key themes emerged from BlackRock's Q1 earnings reports: companies are shifting production to the U.S. or allied countries, many are accepting higher input costs due to supply chain adjustments, and 60% of companies updating spending plans are guiding below consensus forecasts [5] - Despite the challenges, large tech companies are confirming or increasing investments related to AI, indicating a strong starting position for U.S. firms [5] Group 4 - BlackRock upgraded its rating on European stocks to neutral due to infrastructure and defense spending plans, although execution remains critical [6] - The European Stoxx 600 index has performed similarly to the S&P 500 since the tariff announcement, with 2025 earnings expectations dropping from 8% to 3.5% [6] - Financial stocks in Europe have risen over 20% this year, supported by strong balance sheets amid high yields [6] Group 5 - BlackRock favors infrastructure stocks due to attractive relative valuations and significant forces at play, predicting that private credit will gain market share as banks withdraw [10] - The firm prefers developed market government bonds over investment-grade credit, particularly U.S. short to medium-term bonds and UK gilt bonds [10] - Emerging markets, especially India and Saudi Arabia, are seen as providing opportunities, while Japan is favored due to returning inflation and corporate reforms [10] Group 6 - Five major forces are reshaping current and future investments: demographic differences, digital disruption and AI, geopolitical divisions, evolving financial frameworks, and the transition to a low-carbon economy [11]

贸易冲突的"终局"？——关税"压力测试 20250515 2025 年 5 月 12 日，美国对中国的关税进行了降级，目前美国对中国的平均关 税税率已经降至 42%，而中国对美国的关税税率则降至 27%。双方相比于过 去的极端关税情况，出现了较大幅度缓和，超出了市场预期。结合最新变化来 看，美国整体对外关税税率已降至 16%，而在此之前为 27%。尽管如此，中 国在美国整体关税中的贡献占比仍然较大，目前为 40%。即使经过此次降级， 美国整体对外关税仍处于近 50 年来偏高水平。 特朗普政府在贸易政策上的推进速度及其影响是什么？ 摘要 • 美国对外关税税率已降至 16%，但仍处近 50 年高位，中国贡献占比仍达 40%，显示关税调整幅度虽超预期，但贸易压力依然存在。 • 特朗普政府贸易政策调整加速，净支持率显著下降，经济政策支持率降幅 尤为明显，促使其调整策略，优先考虑政绩诉求。 • 美国贸易策略调整包括提高关税税率、降低非关税壁垒，并保护农业和制 造业利益，以减少贸易逆差并满足国内政治需求。 • 关税调整后，2025 年美国 GDP 或下降 0.7%，PCE 通胀可能上升 1.4%，中长期 GDP 也可能下 ...

美债收益率小幅走低，市场等待数据公布 金十数据5月15日讯，在当天晚些时候公布一系列数据之前，美国国债小幅走强，各期限国债收益率下 跌1-2个基点。美国将于周四公布的数据包括PPI、零售销售、每周初请失业金人数和工业生产。 Neuberger Berman经济学家埃里克·克努岑在一份报告中表示，尽管如此，贸易冲突现在已经平静下来， 人们更多地关注经济，而不是关税的不确定性，而且美国国债收益率已经脱离了特朗普总统4月初宣布 对等关税以来的峰值。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Siemens CEO stated that Germany has the potential for economic recovery, which will depend on the development of tariff situations and the resolution of trade conflicts [1] Group 1 - The potential for recovery in Germany's economy is highlighted by the CEO of Siemens [1] - Economic recovery is contingent upon the evolution of tariffs and the resolution of ongoing trade disputes [1]

德国总理默茨：我们致力于避免与美国之间发生长期的贸易冲突。 ...