1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The core contradiction in the market is between the difficulty of disproving the broad - money expectation and the high uncertainty of the timing of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. This contradiction will not change in the short term, determining that the bond market will remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. In the coming week, the market is mixed with both long and short factors, and there are short - term trading opportunities for both long and short positions. It is recommended to adopt a quick - in - and - quick - out strategy [2][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From April 21st to April 27th, treasury bond futures oscillated at a high level. On Monday, with the LPR rate unchanged and the stock market performing strongly, treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Tuesday, after the tax period, the capital market marginally loosened, and treasury bond futures oscillated upward. On Wednesday, Trump's softened attitude led to an expected decline in future tariff levels, and market risk appetite recovered, causing treasury bond futures to oscillate downward. On Thursday, the expectation of trade - war easing was marginally revised downward; in the morning, treasury bond futures strengthened, but in the afternoon, the broad - money expectation declined slightly, and treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Friday, in the morning, treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly, and in the afternoon, due to the Politburo meeting policy not exceeding market expectations, treasury bond futures rose rapidly. As of April 25th, the settlement prices of the continuous main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.310, 105.975, 108.805, and 119.820 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.126, - 0.250, - 0.195, and + 0.100 yuan compared to the previous weekend [1][14] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - The market will continue to oscillate with mixed long and short factors. The broad - money expectation is difficult to be completely disproven as the probability of April's manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations is high, but some long - position investors may choose to hold cash during the holiday to avoid trade - related risks. There are trading opportunities for both long and short positions, and the strategy should be quick - in - and - quick - out. Specific strategies include: long - position traders can look for opportunities around the release of PMI data, short - position traders can focus on changes in long - position investors' risk - aversion sentiment; pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunities of short - term varieties; wait for the right - hand signal for the curve - steepening strategy; and pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the TS06 - 09 spread [2][15][19] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 70 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 6757.83 billion yuan and a net financing amount of - 802.48 billion yuan, changing by - 1004.24 billion yuan and - 7235.36 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 47 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 1911.23 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 1625.12 billion yuan, changing by - 94.94 billion yuan and + 387.94 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 530 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance volume of 9782.40 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 1876.00 billion yuan, changing by + 2693.40 billion yuan and + 1918.30 billion yuan respectively compared to last week [24] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - As of April 25th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.48%, 1.55%, 1.66%, and 1.93% respectively, changing by + 3.39, + 3.74, + 1.14, and + 2.30 basis points compared to the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds compressed by 0.93bp to 20.97bp, the 10Y - 5Y spread narrowed by 2.60bp to 11.45bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread widened by 1.16bp to 26.46bp. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.57%, 1.61%, and 1.69% respectively, changing by - 0.14, + 2.50, and + 1.40bp compared to the previous weekend [28] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - As of April 25th, the settlement prices of the continuous main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.310, 105.975, 108.805, and 119.820 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.126, - 0.250, - 0.195, and + 0.100 yuan compared to the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 40403, 51627, 66295, and 103436 lots respectively, changing by + 3563, - 7758, - 1285, and + 126 lots compared to the previous weekend. The open interests were 142952, 203371, 222757, and 128694 lots respectively, changing by - 3119, - 1582, + 1923, and + 4351 lots compared to the previous weekend [37][40] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - It is recommended to adopt the positive - arbitrage strategy for short - term varieties. The IRR of short - term varieties has been running at a relatively high level. After the capital market gradually loosens at the end of Q1, the cost - performance of the positive - arbitrage strategy has become more prominent. The reasons for the relatively stable positive - arbitrage opportunities in short - term varieties are that although the capital market has marginally loosened, the negative carry problem still exists, and the basis center is difficult to rise. Also, the core trading logic in the market is the broad - money expectation. Once the easing policy is implemented, the short - term varieties have a large potential for supplementary growth, and the logic of going long on short - term varieties is relatively clear. Compared with spot bonds, going long on futures saves more capital. In mid - to - early April, the net basis of TS showed a compression trend [44] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of April 25th, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2506 - 2509 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.254, - 0.290, - 0.165, and - 0.270 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.070, - 0.025, - 0.045, and - 0.180 yuan compared to the previous weekend [47] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank conducted 8820 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations in the open market. With 8080 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases maturing, the net reverse - repurchase investment was 740 billion yuan. As of April 25th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.66%, 1.64%, 1.57%, and 1.64% respectively, changing by - 5.29, - 5.67, - 9.30, and - 1.60bp compared to the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 6.33 trillion yuan, 98.31 billion yuan more than last week, and the overnight proportion was 74.73%, lower than the previous week's level [51][52][54] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds declined slightly. As of April 25th, the US dollar index rose 0.36% to 99.5836 compared to the previous weekend, the yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds was 4.29%, down 5 basis points from the previous weekend, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bonds was inverted by 263 basis points [62] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board. As of April 25th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3539.28, 6148.72, and 1656.60 points respectively, changing by + 38.06, + 68.33, and + 13.04 points compared to the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices showed a mixed trend. As of April 25th, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.78, 4.58, and 7.72 yuan/kg respectively, changing by - 0.07, - 0.07, and + 0.24 yuan/kg compared to the previous weekend [66] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - There are short - term trading opportunities for both long and short positions [67]

Core Viewpoint - Economists suggest that the European Central Bank (ECB) will need to take on the responsibility of boosting economic activity in the Eurozone due to ongoing trade tensions and economic challenges [1] Economic Indicators - The April PMI data indicates a further easing of price pressures, which supported the ECB's recent interest rate cut [1] - The combination of low price pressures and weakened economic activity suggests that the ECB may implement additional rate cuts in the future [1] Trade and Fiscal Policy - If current trade conflicts do not resolve, the ECB will be tasked with addressing economic issues within the Eurozone [1] - Germany's announced fiscal stimulus plan and increased defense spending efforts in Europe are expected to take time before significantly impacting economic activity [1]

2025年4月14日-18日 本周盘面盘点 0 | 指数表现 上证指数 收盘3276.73，上涨 1.19% 申万一级行业中,23个上涨,8个下跌。 涨幅前三行业:银行、房地产和综合 跌幅前三行业:国防军工、农林牧渔和计算机 全市场两融业务情况 17 概况 截至4月18日 全市场融资融券余额 较上周减少 18,038.4亿元 54.5亿元 较上周减少 融资余额 17,927.2亿元 55.7亿元 较上周增加 融券余额 1.2亿元 111.3亿元 0 2 行业聚焦 申银万国一级（2021）行业分类中，半数行业净买入额为 正。 1 2 日均成交额 深圳成指 收盘9781.65, 下跌 0.54% 上海市场 4625亿元，环比减少 33.6% 深圳市场 6137亿元，环比减少 30.1% C 行业涨跌 3. 337 行业累计净买入额(万元) 汽车 提供化工 但包含圆 矢约生物 钢铁 美容护理 纺织服饰 环保 轻工制造 商贸零售 建筑材料 有油石化 房地产 建筑装饰 公用事业 传媒 娱灰 机械设备 食品饮料 电力设备 通信 银行 非银金融 计算机 -200,000.00 -100,000.00 0.00 100,00 ...

22日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）大幅下调了对今年和明年的全球经济增长预期，警告称，由于特朗普 的关税政策，全球经济前景可能进一步恶化。 IMF将其对今年全球GDP增长的预测下调至2.8%。这低于其1月份预测的3.3%，将是自2020年以来最慢 的GDP增长速度，也将是自2009年以来的第二差数据。将对明年的增长预期下调至3%，下降0.3个百分 点。 预计美国今年的经济增长率为1.8%，2026年为1.7%，分别下调0.9和0.4个百分点。美国2025年陷入衰退 的概率为40%，去年10月预计为27%。 IMF表示，对于美国而言，贸易冲突将引发供应冲击，推高物价并拖累生产力。对于贸易伙伴而言，更 高的关税将转化为需求冲击，影响产出和物价。值得注意的是，美国关税的实际税率已跃升至一个世纪 以来的最高水平。 IMF：特朗普政策加剧风险，全球经济增长前景堪忧 IMF首席经济学家Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas在简报会上表示： "我们正在进入一个新时代。过去80年来运作的全球经济体系正在被重塑。" 由于特朗普的政策，美国股市、美元和长期美国国债一直动荡不安。近期他公开"叫板"美联储主席鲍威 尔，加剧 ...

首先，贸易冲突的进展仍主导市场短期运行。上周贸易冲突虽然没有明显升级，但是当前高额的关 税，使得全球贸易面临重大挑战，投资者的关注重心逐渐转向其对实体经济的影响。当前国际环境下， 国内积极的宏观经济政策如何进一步推进，成为市场关注的焦点和投资线索。与此同时，国内一季度的 经济数据和上市公司的年报、季报正在进入密集披露期，投资者需要密切关注具体数据是否能够达到市 场的预期。此外，上周美国人工智能芯片的出口政策有进一步收紧的趋势，科技领域的竞争和突围势在 必行，国内科技行业的进展也将很大程度上影响市场的风险偏好。 上周，两市震荡分化，成交大幅萎缩。沪指延续了上周的反弹，总体呈现继续修复的特征。但深圳 市场表现偏弱，周一开盘几乎就是最高点，随后一路小幅回落。量能方面，上周未能延续上周的放量格 局，量能出现了明显萎缩。上周市场热点主要集中在银行地产等低估值行业以及大消费行业。投资风格 方面，大盘蓝筹明显强于中小盘和科技风格。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指在周线箱体中轨线找到支撑，正在展开超跌反弹。沪指于三月中下旬，在 去年四季度的密集成交区间遇到较强技术阻力，开始进入调整。最终在周线的箱体中轨线附近找到支撑 并展开反弹。目 ...

Economic Overview - The first quarter of 2025 showed a good economic start, with March export data exceeding expectations, driven by a "rush to export" effect, leading to a year-on-year export growth rate of 12.4%[6] - Core economic indicators such as consumption, investment, and real estate showed significant improvement, primarily due to the effectiveness of growth stabilization policies[6] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.3% year-on-year, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment being the main drivers[6] Trade and Policy Implications - The recent trade conflict that erupted in early April did not impact the first quarter's economic performance; instead, the "rush to export" provided some support[7] - The upcoming April Politburo meeting is expected to focus on macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth, with a high probability of further policy implementation[7] Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is identified as the government's primary task for 2025, with a focus on childcare subsidies, real estate, and tourism[8] - Recent policies include increased childcare subsidies and support for the real estate market, indicating a commitment to releasing market potential[8] Market Expectations - Since late February, market expectations for the 2025 performance of the Wind All A Index have weakened, with the consensus forecast for net profit declining from CNY 66,149.50 billion to CNY 63,991.29 billion, a drop of 3.26%[10] - This decline reflects a market reassessment of the U.S. government's trade stance towards China, particularly following tariff increases[10] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.19%, while the CSI 300 rose by 0.59%, indicating a stronger performance compared to other indices like the ChiNext and the CSI 500, which saw declines[5] - The overall A-share market's price-to-earnings ratio is currently at 17.95, up by 1.02% from the previous week[5]

农产品日报（2025 年 4 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 震荡 | | | 周二，玉米先跌后涨，7 月合约持仓增加，期价以小阴线收盘。在连续两日的期 货调整过程中，玉米期价领跌，现货强于期货，基差回归。近期玉米 5 月合约持 | | | | 仓下降，7 月合约增仓，加权合约持仓增加，空头增仓占优。现货市场方面，北 | | | | 港高水分玉米走货一般，货源也相对较多，港口价格表现暂显一般。但是，产区 | | | | 贸易商低价出货意向一般，东北产区价格暂较为坚挺。周末华北地区玉米价格整 | | | | 体稳中偏强运行。贸易商出货意愿减弱， 深加工企业门前到货量维持低位，支 | | | 玉米 | 撑价格偏强，深加工企业玉米收购价格普遍上调 10-30 元/吨。周末销区市场玉 | | | | 米价格整体稳定运行。下游按需拿货，少量补充库存，饲料厂当前对远月市场看 | | | | 涨心态一般，6-7 月份远期订单签订减少。港口提货速度一般，价格维持稳定为 | | | | 主。技术上，玉米 7 月合约 2300 元/吨整数关口是近 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 4 月 16 日 星期三 品种观点： 【股指期货】周二（4 月 15 日）A 股三大指数涨跌不一，沪指连续六个交易日收涨。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.15%， 收报 3267.66 点；深证成指跌 0.27%，收报 9858.10 点；创业板指跌 0.13%，收报 1930.40 点。沪深两市成交额 仅有 10772 亿，较昨日缩量 2003 亿。 沪深 300 指数 4 月 15 日窄幅震荡，收盘 3761.24，环比上涨 2.09。 【焦炭 焦煤】4 月 15 日焦炭加权指数区间整理，收盘价 1575.5 元，环比上涨 19.2。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 １ 编辑：国新国证期货 4 月 15 日，焦煤加权指数窄幅整理，收盘价 957.0 元，环比上涨 1.6。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：第一轮提涨部分落地，关注后续是否有继续提涨动能。受关税政策影响，焦炭价格跟随钢材走势为主。 铁水日产小幅拾升，焦化利润明显收缩，但日产持续抬升。焦炭整体库存去化不畅仍维持高位，贸易采购积极性 有所回落。 焦煤：炼焦煤矿山有复产情况出现，周内产量抬升 ...

美豆价格小幅走低，中国大豆进口创17年新低，贸易冲突阴云叠加巴西困局，未来大豆市场将如何破 局？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The market still has concerns about trade conflicts, and the international crude oil price has declined again, which may have a negative impact on the methanol futures trend. It is expected that the methanol market will likely remain volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - related news and olefin plant changes. For MA2505, it is recommended to operate with a bearish bias [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The methanol market is affected by trade conflict concerns and falling international crude oil prices. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to macro news and olefin plant changes. For MA2505, a bearish operation is recommended [5]. 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Some plants have shutdown or maintenance plans; March import is expected to be low, and port de - stocking exceeds expectations; olefin operation is at a high level, and traditional downstream demand enters the peak season; methanol factory inventories in production areas are tight; the central bank plans to cut reserve requirements and interest rates, which is beneficial to the commodity and financial markets [6]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Some previously shut - down plants have restart plans; the operation of refineries in northern Shandong is at a low level; the weather in Iran has warmed up, and attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of local plants; although methanol has risen significantly recently, cost transfer is difficult, and attention should be paid to negative feedback from downstream; upstream factories are actively selling under high - profit conditions [6]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2480 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract is 88, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The futures closing price is 2392 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton from the previous value [5][7]. - **Inventory**: As of April 10, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the ports of East and South China was 484,900 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol supply in coastal areas decreased by 24,800 tons to 301,200 tons [5]. - **Operation Rate**: The weighted average national operation rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous period. The operation rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions all decreased [7]. - **Profit**: The weekly changes in the profits of coal - based, natural - gas - based, and coke - oven - gas - based methanol production were - 37, 0, and - 348 respectively [14]. - **External Market**: The CFR China price decreased by 7.08% week - on - week, and the CFR Southeast Asia price decreased by 4.14% week - on - week. The price difference decreased by 5 [23]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants in regions such as Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast are under maintenance, with different start and end times and varying production losses [56]. - **Foreign Plants**: Some Iranian plants restarted in mid - March but have low operating rates, while plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and Qatar are generally operating normally [57].