施罗德投资表示，虽然有关关税的消息仍然反复不定，但相对于"解放日"，目前的贸易发展局势与其基 本预期一致，即对中国征收30%关税、对其他地区征收10%，使实际关税水平维持在约12%。经济不确 定性持续存在，需密切观察企业将如何应对，但部分经济下行风险已较早前受控。因此，施罗德认为 2025年经济衰退的风险已有所减低。对股市维持正面看法，尤其聚焦美国及欧洲的金融业板块。 施罗德投资整体对各地政府债券维持中性立场。虽然收益率已上升且估值有所改善，但由于美国债务水 平上升及持续的通胀风险，中期而言担忧仍然存在。虽然市场预期与其展望更趋一致，但仍预期美联储 的货币政策放宽幅度、将低于目前市场所反映的水平。美国以外地区的通胀压力相对温和，相比美国国 债，继续看好德国国债的表现。 继续看好黄金作为分散投资组合的作用，并对美元持偏淡立场，主要反映于看好欧元及新兴市场本地货 币债券的表现。 由于现届美国政府政策走向难以预测，市场愈趋重视分散资产配置。投资者普遍持有较多美国资产，在 这情况下，预期风险意识将会提升，促使资金被重新分配，并流出美国市场。 而全球原油供应持续增加，将令市场出现供应过剩，并对2025年油价构成压力，因 ...

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2025 年 7 月 3 日 资产配置及A股风格半月报 风险资产有望延续优势 风险资产有望延续优势，盈利因子有望修复。 相关研究报告 《风格制胜 3：风格因子体系的构建及应用》 20250606 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 ◼ 大类资产配置：风险资产有望延续相对优势。我们的大类资产配置模型是 基于周期嵌套理论改良版 BL 模型。模型基于不同周期定位下的大类资产 的表现，将市场均衡观点进行贝叶斯修正，输出满足既定条件的最优资产 组合，模型输出可显著提升组合夏普比率。我们输入的观点基于库存周期 理论，未来一个季度，我们认为内外弱补库有望延续。基于上述主观假设 及限制条件的 BL 模型输出结果为：国内资产方面，2025 年三季度股票 配置比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding risks associated with stock investments, highlighting that while stocks may offer higher long-term returns compared to gold and bonds, they also come with significant risks that investors often overlook [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Market Returns and Risks - Over the past 20 years, the annualized return of the CSI 300 index was 7.91%, but it experienced a maximum drawdown of 72.3%. In comparison, the NASDAQ 100 had an annualized return of 14.34% with a maximum drawdown of 53.71% [4]. - The volatility of global stock markets is significant, and while the CSI 300 may show strong gains in certain years, it is often followed by substantial corrections and risks [5]. - Many investors lack the capacity to endure large fluctuations in stock prices, leading them to sell at a loss before recovering from downturns [7]. Group 2: Performance Comparison with Bonds and Gold - In the past decade, gold achieved an annualized return of 13.03%, while the CSI 300 had an annualized return of -1.8%. Over the last three years, the annualized return of Chinese bonds was 4.93%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300's -3.63% [8]. - Stock returns are tied to corporate earnings, which can be adversely affected by economic downturns, industry changes, and policy shifts. During such times, bonds and commodities may perform better due to their low correlation with stocks [8]. Group 3: Investor Behavior and Market Realities - The actual returns for investors differ from theoretical stock market returns, largely due to individual investor behavior. Many investors mistakenly believe they can easily buy low and sell high, which is often an illusion created by hindsight [9]. - Historical trends indicate that only 20% of investors possess the necessary knowledge and strategies to achieve long-term profits, while 80% do not, leading to negative returns [10]. Group 4: Investment Strategy and Asset Allocation - A balanced investment strategy that includes stocks, bonds, and commodities can enhance risk-adjusted returns. For example, a portfolio consisting of 60% stocks, 30% bonds, and 10% gold showed a cumulative return of over 100% in the past seven years, with a maximum drawdown of only 7.67% [10][12]. - The proposed investment allocation includes 60% in equity funds, 30% in bond funds, and 10% in commodity funds, which can effectively reduce overall portfolio volatility and improve long-term performance [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong dividend ETF market is experiencing positive momentum, driven by government incentives, international monetary easing, and a focus on defensive yield strategies amid rising geopolitical risks [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong dividend ETF Bosera (513690) increased by 0.58% on July 3, with a turnover rate of 14.91% and a transaction amount of 624 million yuan [1]. - Year-to-date performance for Bosera is +15.17%, with a leading dividend yield of 7.5481%, compared to the current yield of 1.63% for China's ten-year government bonds [2][3]. Group 2: Government Policies - The Hong Kong government has implemented various policies to enhance market attractiveness, including lowering stamp duty and optimizing southbound trading mechanisms, which are expected to improve overall liquidity and market valuation [3]. - Encouragement from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for dividends aims to attract long-term funds such as pensions and insurance into the market [3]. Group 3: International Environment - The initiation of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve has improved global liquidity, leading long-term funds to favor stable cash flow assets, making the Hong Kong dividend index an attractive option for both domestic and foreign investors [4]. - Geopolitical tensions and external uncertainties have increased the appeal of dividend strategies as a defensive measure, particularly in sectors like telecommunications, energy, and utilities [5]. Group 4: Trade Dynamics - The escalation of trade tensions, particularly following Trump's push for "reciprocal tariffs," has placed pressure on export-oriented industries, while dividend index constituents, which are less reliant on external demand, show greater resilience [6]. - The combination of local incentives and a favorable international environment supports the strong positioning of dividend assets in the current market landscape [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite short-term pressures on high-dividend sectors, mid-term prospects remain positive due to the relative attractiveness of dividend yields compared to long-term government bond rates [7]. - The ongoing volatility in U.S. Treasury yields may enhance the relative performance of dividend strategies during periods of market disturbance [7].

Core Viewpoint - The regulatory changes regarding self-built valuation models for bank wealth management subsidiaries have increased the pressure on investor education and have led to significant adjustments in investment strategies to manage net asset value fluctuations [2][6][12]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes and Impact - Regulatory authorities have prohibited bank wealth management subsidiaries from using self-built valuation models, requiring them to adopt standardized valuation methods [6][4]. - The implementation of these regulations aims to restore the fundamental nature of net asset value and ensure fair competition among wealth management institutions [6][4]. - As of the end of May, the average annualized yield of open-ended fixed-income wealth management products decreased to 2.84%, down 0.35 percentage points from April, reflecting the impact of market adjustments [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Adjustments - Wealth management subsidiaries are shifting their investment strategies by reducing long-term bonds and low-rated credit bonds while increasing short-term high-rated bonds to mitigate net asset value fluctuations [3][11]. - The need to comply with regulatory requirements has led to a significant reduction in the net buying of long-term credit bonds, with net purchases dropping from 27 billion to 9 billion for 7-10 year bonds in June [13]. - The overall bond yield decline has prompted wealth management subsidiaries to explore alternative high-dividend investment options such as REITs and preferred stocks to enhance overall product returns [12]. Group 3: Challenges in Valuation and Investor Education - The self-built valuation models previously used by wealth management subsidiaries aimed to smooth out net asset value fluctuations but have been deemed unfair and misleading [5][4]. - Investor education has become increasingly important as fluctuations in net asset values have led to irrational redemption behaviors among investors [2]. - Wealth management subsidiaries are now required to closely monitor and adjust their asset allocation strategies in response to market conditions to maintain investor confidence [11][10].

瑞银调查显示，65%的受访者认为美联储独立性面临风险，47%的人认为风险法治恶化到足以影响资产 配置。 ...

7月3日（周四），黄金ETF基金（159937）上涨0.52%，盘中换手率1%，成交金额2.84亿元。拉长时间看，截至2025年7月2日，黄金ETF基金（159937）近 3月累计上涨4.98%。 | 多周期 设置 画线 | | 除权 窗 区 信息 删自选 ◎ | | 黄金ETF基金 159937 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 425 MA30: 7.418 MA60: 7.398 | | 8.140 | | | | | | 8.010 | | | 7.416 +0.038 +0.515% | | | | | 7.853 | 载化 | +2.06% | 548 | | | | | 5 | 7.420 | 1208 | | | | | | 7.419 | 1373 | | | | 7.561 | 3 | 7.418 | 2301 | | | | | 盛 2 | 7.417 | 7584 | | | | 7.274 | 1 | | | | | | | | 7.416 | 564 | | | | | 1 | 7.415 | 6105 | | | | 6.98 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of low interest rates on personal finance and investment strategies, emphasizing the need for individuals to adapt their wealth management approaches in a changing economic environment [1][5]. Group 1: Low Interest Rate Environment - The current low interest rates are leading to diminished returns on traditional savings, with one-year deposit rates falling below 1.5% and three-year rates approaching the "1 era" [3]. - Inflation is eroding purchasing power, making it crucial for individuals to rethink their investment strategies rather than relying solely on bank savings [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - A diversified investment approach is recommended, suggesting that individuals allocate their funds into different categories: 30% in liquid assets like money market funds, 40% in stable products like government bonds, and 30% in more aggressive investments such as index funds or quality stocks [3][4]. - Caution is advised against high-yield investment traps, with a warning that any promised returns exceeding 6% should be scrutinized, and those over 8% may risk principal loss [4]. Group 3: Financial Literacy and Mindset - The importance of financial literacy is highlighted, with individuals encouraged to invest time in understanding financial concepts and asset allocation based on their risk tolerance [4][5]. - A stable mindset is essential, as successful wealth preservation relies on consistent, long-term strategies rather than chasing quick profits [4][5].

未来，申万宏源证券将牢牢把握全品类指数研发、多品类标的交易对冲及结构化产品创设的核心 竞争力，以丰富多元、稳健优质的产品货架满足不同风险偏好、不同市场观点投资者的多样化财富管 理需求，为企业和机构投资者提供多元化的资产配置方案；探索高质量发展之路，为加快建设金融强 国贡献力量。 来源：申万宏源金融创新总部 近日，申万宏源证券成为国内最早成功发行挂钩中证商品期货指数（英文简称： CCICFI；指数代码：100001.CCI）收益凭证的券商之一，首批凭证产品采用美式看涨鲨鱼鳍 结构，客户认购规模逾3.3亿元。 申万宏源证券与中证商品指数有限责任公司在指数使用许可授权及指数产品化发展领域开展通力 合作。本次签约合作基于中证商品指数公司所发布的基础标的，并充分发挥申万宏源证券结构化产品 创设优势，在提供下跌风险缓释的同时助力客户有效把握商品期货上涨行情机会。中证商品期货指数 是我国首个全市场综合性权威商品指数系列，有助于推动数字科技、金融科技与实体经济融合发展， 为大宗商品资产配置和风险管理提供工具。 ...

理财产品配置策略需调整 值得注意的是，理财产品的资产配置策略也面临调整。 "按照新规要求，随着市场波动加大，一些权益类理财产品正逐步调整配置策略，倾向于增配流动性更 强、价格波动较小的主板标的。即使继续参与权益市场，操作上也以短线波段为主。在此过程中，产品 估值管理的复杂性随之上升，净值波动幅度或将进一步放大。"周毅钦说。 邵科提到，ST类股票涨跌幅限制的放宽将促使理财产品投资策略进行调整，及时评估组合风险收益特 征，有针对性地优化资产配置方案。追求稳定收益的稳健型理财产品，或将大幅降低相关股票的配置， 将资金投向其他股票或者固定收益类资产，保持产品净值的稳定；追求超额收益的进取型产品，或将调 整相关股票的估值，明确投资比例限制、控制风险敞口、完善压力测试机制，并适当增加低波动资产的 配置，保持投资的风险收益匹配。同时，理财产品将进一步强化风险监控，建立更加严格的风险预警机 制，及时采取调整仓位、止损等措施控制风险。此外，理财公司也将强化投资者教育工作，帮助客户理 解新规下的风险变化。 （文章来源：中国经营报） 日前，沪深交易所宣布就调整主板风险警示股票价格涨跌幅限制比例及有关事项公开征求意见，拟将主 板风险 ...